LETTER TO THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. PROXMIRE FROM W. E. COLBY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01048A000800150001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 8, 1974
• Content Type: LETTER

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
S AUG1974
The Honorable William E. Proxmire
Chairman, Subcommittee on Priorities
and Economy in Government, Joint
Economic Committee
Washington, D.C. 20510
In the light of the recently increased public
and media interest in the question of Soviet military
spending I have had my testimony before your Subcommittee
reviewed to make sure of its currency. We find that
in its essential features the information remains
valid, although I would like to pass on to you some
recent refinements in the military spending figures
cited in my testimony.
The most important point concerns my testimony
that Soviet defense spending would grow in 1974
rather than decrease as the announced Soviet budget
indicated. Based on our knowledge of actual military
programs underway earlier this year our estimate was
that overall spending would grow by at least three
percent and probably somewhat higher. As.the year
has progressed we have been able to firm up our views
on the scope and pace of the new Soviet missile systems
that are being used to modernize the Soviet forces,
and now it appears that the figure will he more like
five percent. This does not invalidate the figure I
cited for total outlays of "about 25 billion rubles"
in 1973.
The dollar equivalent of this figure--"over 80
billion dollars" is likewise still of the right order,
providing it refers to 1972 dollars, as it did in my
testimony. We have, however, now shifted to 1973
dollars in our reporting--and the inflation rate in
the US will cause this figure to increase to about
$90 billion. In other words, it would now cost the
US that amount of money to buy and operate the 1973
Soviet forces and military programs as we know them.
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I would be happy to have my specialists meet
with your staff to discuss these points further if
that seems desirable.
Sincerely,
W. E. Colby
Director
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SUBJECT: Letter to The Honorable William E. Proxmire
CONCUR:
Deputy Director for' Intelligence Date, f
Distribution:
Orig. - Addressee
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
ER
1 - DDI
2 - D/OSR
x-T,C
OD:OSR-
1(26 July 1974)
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THE NEW YORK TIMES, FRIDAY, JULY 26, 1974
S -a y Soviet Is Developing New Missiles f or Use in . the 1980's'
gen Aides
?:N W. FINNT.Y shave estimated that Soviet. in- Because of the long develop- tai estimated cost of $13-b1:1-
t' New York iry,gty vestment in new weapons and ment cycle, none of the new lion,
a:Taa' July 25-De-I nilltary facilities, .? which missiles is expected,' to be While the Soviet Union may
droi;ped from 40 per cent of ready before the early ntncrteen he developin more missiles,
r nONT, offy 25 said; g
the Soviet Lnion:'he defense budget in 1960 to eighties. Nor is it expected intelligence circles generally
s2vc?ral r:rw;20 per cent in 19e2 as major that all the new weapons will agree than the United States
:pis Jlcs in rdu'iti>I:pl' rims were ? completed, actually move into production, has a wide lean in con a 'ty,
s;itc ; that it had been lwould triple by 1975 over the The Soviet Union tends to reliability and a, curacy.
tit 'trait;plc v:arh~eds i 1972 level because of the de- follow a competitive approach -'1Tia fu1tTi1e in~cpendentty
;ti?Iv acquired intolli-Ivelopmcnt of new strategic in weapons', development and targotable re-entry vehicles, or
j:t:iation is being pro-iwca.pons. then decides during the testing MIRV's, tested pn the four So-
coniirr:\.tion for thd in February testimony?.?be- phase winch weapon is to CO viet missiles were reported by
dcs;.i+.? ;a;::a?rontrol fore Congressional ' tom- into production. Pentagon sources to be unex-
the noon,. ,mun1 of;mittees Defense Secretary Different U.S.?Approacla'' pectedly far less accurate tly'Tn
rci'r.im it ~jarmes It Schlesinger de:7crihed AmerWinnmu?h-n-To'w heads
p
owe
vc
rose t
and
T,
to p
?? helps c??r.......
"' ~~' wny.~,=:.a e.4 ?:L I.??~?.,?~?
:I;'~, a acy'c.:ar?;, ~~ "1i:511eS with paella le war traSt, Concentrates fro-in the
;;t I f~ rate 'fhan: the present 'Soviet, serious threat to the Minute-,Union s interest in obtaining
fc.ntatic T in rep td gilts--the SS?16 55.17, SS very start on particular weap'Imissilcs artnedtivitli'sing(e wt-r?~man force in the. early nine-'computers and baltbea.ru:gs
i,d The Ccr,trat Intetli?~IR, and SS-19-as a "truly oils ystems, pushing them ,
'leads, teen eighties. Ifrom the United States.
th
d
i
row to ro
uct
on
'eac . It has
to predict an in* massive effort" and "far more g P
Y hewn the development of five
n 6", Swirt d:fcnscIcomprchensive than estimated ,a
n even q new stratc('
o ?c missiles -?
ear a
y
g
o
.d hr (;1 growir, ; at an
(~! r"r & rat a yCSr.
ra:,t ntirr the. next few
acrnrctin;t to Pentagon
, is about 5 per cent a
\'Jith the additional ` mis-
r;itcs, Pentagon officials sug-
gested that the statement
underes,tiniated the breadth of
types of Trident missiles for
submarines, a win;te,d crttise
missile, that could be launched
by submarine or bomber, and
a mobile intercontinental mis-
sile that could he launched ol-
ther from the ground or from
the air.
The Navy announced today
that General Dynamics Corpo-
ration's Electric Boat Division
at ,Groton, Conn., had been'
awarded a contract of up to'
$43; -million to build the hull
for' the first Trident missile-
launching submarine. The Navy
plans to build 10 of the 20,000..
ton submarines, each of which
will carry 24 missiles, at a toe
"The implication," com-
mented one highly placed mili
sc,v'?et Union does notltarY analyst, "is that the So
(oi;icill ii;a;res for itsiviet Union is spending' fart
d i ;pcnditurc5
tidfi n'>8 outihy.s listed
aims,) p ?L!i:;i; it bud; et
lied rnr ill.' to the main-
cap:s or forces and ex-
,r ;;?.nu5 rrrearcb and de.
? : is ?.re!1 ; '; ir?vc:;trneat' missiles are modifications of
inr;u.try. existing weapons; others' are
C.I.A. was rr;,orted to entirely new,
more on defen.;e than we , rca?f
sonabiy anticipated." ,, j
Analysts estimate the mam-
her of new missiles at 10 to 12,
some lard-based, others% de-
The question of accuracy has There is now growing opin-
a bearing on whether the So- ion in the Pentagon, based on
vict MIRV warheads present a monitored tc;;t flights thus far,
threat to the land-based Min-that if will take the P? -It
uternan missile force of the Union eight to ten more - A
more important than explosive
power in determining the abili-
ty of a warhead to knock out
a missile in its underground
silo.
Mr. Schlesinger. assumed In tering the so;)histicatcd tech-
his February testimony'that the nology used in guidance sys-
Soviet multiple warheads would,tems for multiple warheads..In
to develop multiple wart >
approaching ir, accuracy t*Oa
of the United States.
The conclusion of some mill-
tary officials is that the Rus-
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C ~t:LAS e~
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
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DATE
INITIALS
.Director of Central
Intelligence
3
4
J
J
6
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
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RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE.
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks:
Bill-
I strongly recommend that you take
the initiative of informing Senator
Proxmire about the results of our recent
analysis of Soviet defense expenditures.
If you agree, please sign the attached
letter .
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME. AOORESS ANO PHONE NO.
DATE
:, . W. Proctor 7E44
9 July
UNCLASSIFIED CONF1
SECRET
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 OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO NAME AND ADORE55
Director of
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REPLY
APPROVAL
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COMMENT
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INFE
S19MATU
FE. W. Proctor 7E44 9 July
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UNCLAS-AT'7C _ i ~
I.strongly'recommend that you take
the initiative of informing Senator
Proxmire about the results of our recent
analysis of Soviet defense expenditures.
If you agree, please sign the attached
letter.
FROM' NAME. ADDRESS ANO PHONE NO.