SOUTHEAST ASIA TRIP REPORT, 1-21 SEPTEMBER 1974

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01048A000800320005-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 21, 2004
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 1, 1974
• Content Type: MF

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Approved For Release 2005/01/19 : le, A RRPee - 48A000800320005-6
HANDLE VIA COMINT'CFANNELS
MEMORANDUM FOR: D/ DC I / I C
UGPY
1 October 197
SUBJECT: . Southeast Asia Trip Report, 1-21 September 1974
1. When I think of Southeast Asia, s am reminded of a man peering
through a kaleidoscope. He carefully picks it up, looks through the eye-
piece and gradually the myriad colors begin to take recognizable shape
and forms. And just at the moment when the viewer is about to deliver
a grave pronouncement concerning what he is seeing, someone comes along
and jostles his arms. The viewer looks again but the entire picture
within the kaleidoscope has changed.
2. And so it is with Southeast Asia. Each person, American and
Asian alike, forms perceptions of what he believes represents reality.
Each view is somewhat different from that of his neighbor. And even the
.views of the individuals constantly chance -- with the tides of war, with
the state of the economy, with the effect. of the northeast and southwest
monsoons on one's psyche, and perhaps a hundred other variants.
3. When thinking of the future of Southeast Asia, it is also common
to go through fits of depression punctuated by moments of optimism -- to
be buoyed up by the Western concept of s-.raightline progress or to lapse
into the shoulder-shrugging fatalism brought about by contemplating the
Buddhist wheel of life.
4. 1 recently spent three weeks in Southeast Asia on an area refamil-
iarization trip. During that period I was in South Vietnam, Cambodia, and
Thailand, travelled up-country as well as visiting their capital cities
and talked to a large number of U.S. country-team members and foreign na-
tionals. From my observation of the countryside and the battlefields and
from the conversations I held, I formed judgements concerning the present
situation in Southeast Asia and the substantive questions which are upper-
most in the minds of the intelligence community. I offer them for what
they are worth as my very personal judgements, and emphasize they represent
no one's views other than my own.
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Attachments: 1 - South Vietnam, September 1974
2 - Cambodia, September 1974
3 - Thailand, September 1974
4 - Trip Itinerary and List of Personnel With Whom
Discussions Were IIEld
Approved For Releaft2FW011/119 :
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 - The Ca ab j ' yoffRRVNAF to Defend RVN. The "VI's regular armed
fords O~46 ?VCVAI ~PJ@4? BQAg2Q9W -G .e. , RVNAF
defending SVN while the NVA/VC select the targets to be attacked, the Com-
munists will continue to experience local headline-catching successes.
However, these initial successes will be rectified by RVNAF counteractions.
An example of the kind of action and response which can be expected in the
future was seen in the recent military operations in Quang Nam where this
type of scenario was played out.
- There is one qualifier to this assessment of the South Vietnam reg-
ular forces. Hanoi retains six divisions in North Vietnam. Should they be
deployed to South Vietnam, it is unlikely that the RVNAF will be able to
contain them without U.S. air support.
- The State of the Regional and Poppul ar Forces. JLpxat t,.a, oo
RF and PF ro ram is de 1orabin , The concept simply is not getting off the
roup . With a few notab e exceptions, the RF and PF are not willing or
ground.--
able to resist the encroachments of either regular or guerrilla forces. C
- The effectiveness of the RF/PF program is crucial to the future of
RVN. There is no way that the handful of RVNAF divisions can maintain
order and stability in South Vietnam without a rigorous RF/PF to control
the countryside and suppress local insurgent efforts.
- Breathing new life into the RF/PF program must be one of the GVN's
highest priorities. The GVN is aware of the problem and some pilot pro-
grams to put more fibre into the RF are being undertaken. Examples of this
are General Nhuts' (2d ARVN division) pan to integrate an RF regiment with-
in his division and General Lahn's (Marine Division) interspersing RF ele-
ments-among his Marine units to give the former more fibre.
- But these are "quick fixes." The RF/PF program needs much more than
- Will Hanoi Conduct a Major Offen.sIve in 1975 of the Same or Greater
Intensity than 1968/1972? Arm-chair strategists take various positions on
this question. That element of the RVNAF militar leadership located
closest to the point of the sword shrug the i"~'r show ens and say they sib
don't know.
- This is not a reflection of their disinterest in the question. Rath-
er,, it is a measure of their realism.
- In effect what they are saying is that they know what the Communists'
military capability is -- they can comm,~nce their offensive tomorrow. How-
ever, they are unable to answer the questions concerning intentions because
the indicators are not yet present.
- My judgement is that Hanoi has not yet made up its mind. The pur-
pose of the Communist attacks of the pa',t three months has been to test and
attrite the RVNAF.
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 Approved For Rele se 2005/0'1/'t9P f%FM
01048 0800320005-6
DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION
SOURCE: ---W DCLLC
DATE OF DOCUMENT: 1 Oct 74
COPY NUMBER (S): Series B, 1 of 5
NUMBER OF PAGES: 16 DOCUMENT NJ
NUMBER OF ATTACHMENTS: 4
TO
OFFICE
^ Approval
^ Action
^ Comment
^ Concurrences
Information
^ Direct Reply
^ Preparation of Reply
^ Recommendation
^ Signature
Return
^ Dispatch
File
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