ORGANIZATIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE BOARD AND OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01048A001500040004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: October 19, 1965
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @,50-Yr2012/12/27 : CIA-RDP80M01048A001500040004-0
TO : Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Organizational Placement of the Board and Office of
National Estimates
. To determine what changes in Agency organization and regulations
are necessary to make clear that the Chairman of the Board of National
Estimates and/or the Director of National Estimates are subordinated
directly to the Director of Central Intelligence.
2. FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:
a. Agency regulations set forth the following responsibilities:
(1) The Deputy Director for Intelligence is responsible for:
(a) "Directing and coordinating the activities of the
Offices of . . . National Estimates . . . .
(b) "Developing a coordinated CIA position on USIB
matters for the approval of the Deputy Director of Central
Intelligence . . . except the following: The preparation and
coordination of National Intelligence Estimates and Special
National Intelligence Estimates, which will be the responsi-
bility of the Office of National Estimates . . . . " (In practice,
this means that the Agency position is developed by the
Director of National Estimates with minimum if any review
by the Deputy Director for Intelligence. It also means that
the Chairman and the CIA member of USIB receive identical
substantive advice on a national estimate. )
(2) The Director of National Estimates shall:
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(a) "Direct the production of national intelligence
estimates. This includes the setting of priorities and the
assignment of production responsibilities among the compo-
nents of the Central Intelligence Agency, and among the
intelligence agencies of the Federal Government.
(b) "Sit as Chairman of the Board of National Estimates.
b. The Director has requested that existing Agency regulations
be amended as may be necessary to reflect that the estimative machinery
of the Agency be subordinated to him directly.
c. The position of Chairman of the Board of National Estimates
is established in our Executive Pay Scale at Level IV ($27, 000), which
is the equivalent of Deputy Directors and the Executive Director-
Comptroller.
d. The Director has requested Sherman Kent, the present Chair-
man of the Board and Director of the Office of National Estimates, to
remain on duty with the Agency for at least the calendar year 1966.
a. The Board of National Estimates /Office of National Estimates
complex can be divided into two parts: (1) the Board of about= 50X1
members, and (2) the Office of about ^analysts who serve as staff in 50X1
support of the Board. On any given estimate one or two members of
the Board and appropriate members of the staff work as a team from
beginning to end. In the judgment of Sherman Kent and Abbot Smith it
would be unworkable to separate the staff from this close relationship
to the Board, and any thought of combining the ONE staff with other
DD/I units, which might be reorganized on a geographic basis, would
make the Board dependent upon task forces for support in the develop-
ment of estimates and is unthinkable. Further, while they are greatly
appreciative of the necessity of being supported by DD/I as well as other
Agency units, they argue that the best intelligence officers many times
are not well qualified to draft national estimates. They feel quite
strongly that disturbing the close working relationship and team concept
now existing between the ONE staff and the Board would be a great
mistake. They are equally strong in their feelings that on estimative
matters, be they Agency or community, the Director of National
Estimates must not be subordinate to the Deputy Director for Intelligence.
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b. The Deputy Director for Intelligence, on the other hand, feels
that organizationally ONE and the Board should be subordinate to the
DD/I. He would have the DD/I be the Chairman of the Board. He would
also reorganize the DD/I on a geographic basis which would include the
present ONE staff. In fact, he has formally proposed that as a first
step the ONE Estimates Staff and the OCI Area Staffs be merged, leaving
the Board of National Estimates intact.
c. Regardless of the merit of either of these two extreme positions,
one cannot exclude the personalities involved. In fact, they are in the
short range more important than regulations or organization charts. In
50X1 E :: STAT
inc e
the Director has requested Sherman Kent to remain on duty through at
least calendar year 1966, no action should be taken to disrupt the exist-
ing relationship of the Board of National Estimates and the Office of
National Estimates, i. e. , they should be kept intact.
d. A simple administrative solution would be to remove the Board
and Office of National Estimates from DD/I and to place them immedi-
ately subordinate to the Director. One can argue that this would have
at least three disadvantages: (1) ONE might not receive the strong DD/I
support which it must have in order to do its job properly; (2) the DD/I
would naturally have less interest in ensuring that ONE was staffed with
the highest caliber of personnel, and career service rotation would be
much more difficult; and (3) if at some later date we should decide to
merge the ONE staff with the remainder of DD/I, this might be more
difficult to accomplish then than now.
e. These arguments are not convincing, however, when one con-
siders the small size of ONE -- about analysts and 50X1
members of the Board. The professionals would still belong to the
Intelligence Career Service and certainly the cooperation in this area
must be no less than it is now or, for that matter, has been under Ray
Cline's predecessors. Further, removal of ONE from the DD/I organi-
zation need not postpone reorganization along geographic lines which
DD/I has said he wishes to go forward with regardless of the ONE
question. Whether or not this is wise is a separate issue. If we should
decide at some later date to fold ONE into a DD/I geographic organization,
it is small enough not to pose insurmountable difficulties.
-3-
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f. There are two other questions to consider.
(1) First, while there is no question that the Director looks
to the Director of National Estimates to produce.NIE's, there is
a variety of other intelligence memoranda and papers, estimative
in character, some of which are now produced by ONE and some
by the DD/I or other components, particularly OCI. OCI, in order
to do its current intelligence reporting job, must necessarily
inject itself into the estimating field to a degree; and there must,
of course, always be full exchange and cooperation between ONE
and other Agency components. It does seem appropriate, however,
that the Director look to ONE for the production of important
Agency and interagency papers which are clearly estimative in
character. He should look to DD/I for those research, situation,
and other reports which are primarily factual rather than estima-
tive in character.
(2) The other question has to do with the staffing of CIA posi-
tions on matters coming before USIB other than national estimates.
It would appear that the CIA member of USIB should continue to
look to the DD/I for the preparation and coordination of all substan
tive papers other than estimates which are to come before USIB,
except SIGINT matters for which he should look to the CIA SIGINT
Officer.
a. That both the Board and Office of National Estimates be
removed from the DD/I organization and be made an independent
component directly subordinate to the DCI.
b. That the Director of National Estimates continue to be the
Chairman of the Board of National Estimates.
c. That the members of the Office of National Estimates continue
to be members of the Intelligence Career Service.
d. That the Director look to the Director of National Estimates
for the preparation of important papers which are clearly estimative
in character and to the DD/I for other substantive intelligence reports.
STAT
L. K. White
Executive Director -Comptroller
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SUBJECT: Organizational Placement of the Board and Office of
National Estimates
Richard Helms Date
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
The recommendations in paragraph 4 are approved:
W. F. Raborn Date
Director of Central Intelligence
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Executive Director
The Director does not want this paper
released from your hands or published until
he or I so instruct. The reasons for this
I will explain to you when I see you privately.
Attachment - Ex.Dir.'s memo of 19 Oct. 1965,
Subject: Organizational Placement of the
Board and Office of National Estimates.
28 Oct. 1965
(DATE)
FORM NO. 101 RHPLACMAYFORMU10-101
1 AUG 54
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr2012/12/27 : CIA-RDP80MO1048AO01500040004-0