DISCUSSION OF THE CURRENT SOUTH VIETNAMESE MILITARY AND POLITICAL SITUATION WITH PRESIDENT THIEU

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01066A001100080013-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: April 2, 1975
• Content Type: MF

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CENTRAL iNTELL!GEH(',E AG :NC Y
'VASH!NGTON, L) C:. 20505
Exec ltive Regiatry
-.2 APR 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable James R. Schlesinger
The Secretary of Defense
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Discussion of the Current South
Vietnamese Military and Political
Situation with President Thieu
1. Attached is a memorandum for the record concerning a
meeting held on 2 April 1.975 between President Nguyen Van Tbi.eu
and Mr. Theodore G. Shackley, Chief of East Asia Division, and
Mr. ThnrnaG Pnlaar. (hiaf of Ration. Vif~tnam. Folln-vvinc a
ctisc cession Ot the current situation in South Vietnam o.t,d Iianois
probable options, Thieu outlined his plans for reorganization. o
the South. Vietnamese Armed Forces, indicating that he planned
to upgrade existing main force units by putting Regional Force
personnel into already existing Army formations and to regroup
the forces that, had. retreated, from Military Regions 1 and 2. On
the subject of political dynamics, Thieu indicated that he had been
presented with several proposals for reorganization of the Gavt rn-
ment, and said he was pursuing at this time Prime Minister Tran
Thien Khiem's option of trying to make the Government more effi-
cient and broader based, although this effort was not moving very
rapidly, If Khiern is unsuccessful, Thieu said he is willing to
accept a new Prime Minister. who could show him he could organize
a Government of competent, anti-com,-nunist personalities with
political support.
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2. A copy of the attached rxaemoraridum, has been provided
Secretary Kissinger.
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Attachment:
As, Stated
cc: General George S. Brown, USAF
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
The I-Honorable Philip C. Habib
Assistant Secretary for Est Asian
an o i ariric J tfair
ORIG:C/ VNC~
Distribution:
Addressee
Geri George S.
The Honorable
DCI
DDCI
ER
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CEA
DCEA
C/VNO
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Brown
Philip C. Habib
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SU3JEvC Tc MEETING WITH PRESIDENT THIEU ON 2 APRIL. 1975
1, INTRODUCTION
ON 1 APRIL 1975 MR. POLGAR WAS CONTACTED BY
GSNEF L QUANG, THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER TO PRESIDENT
fill I: U, WITH THE REQUEST THAT ME SRS. c HACKL.EY AND POLGAR
V tOE 'R S1D_,~ ,1i THI U A SRIE IiNG ON 'iHE CURRENT
MILITARY SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM. GENERAL QUANG
STATED THAT THE 2 APRIL MEETING WOULD ALSO GIVE PR ESIDENT
TH I E U AN OPPORTUNITY T O TA L ( WITH MR , SH AC KL, EY , AS
PRESIDENT THIEU KNEW FROM GENERAL GUANG'S DAILY BRIEFING
THAT MR. SHACKLE Y'WAS IN SOUTH VIETNAM AS PART Or GENE_Rt-L
NLYA D I5 i A K FuHcE. WITH AMBASSADOR MARTIN'S CONCUR R LE NC:
THt_ BR IEING WAS ARRANGED FOR NOON2 2 APRIL.
2 , DISCUSSION-
A t A, MESSAGE FROM MR, COLBY, THE DCI, TO PRESI D"--NT
TH ICU,
AT THE OPENING Or TIH{E. MEETING MR. SHACKLEY TOLD
PRESIDENT TH I C U THAT P RI OR T O HIS DEPARTURE FROM
WASHINGTON, MR. COLBY HAD ASKED THAT HIS BEST WISHES
BE EXTENDED TO PRESIDENT THIEU. IN ADDITION, MR. SH,ACE(E.E`t
STRESSED THAT MR. COLBY WANTED TO REITERATE TO PRESIDENT"
TH IEU THE DESIRE OF CIA TO COOPERATE FULLY WITH THE GVN
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IN AN INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGE ON HANOI'S PL AN:S, INTENT IONS
AND CAPABILITIES IN ORDER THAT THE UNITED STATES AND THEW
GVN MIGHT BOTH WORK FROM THE SAME: DATA BASE IN TERMS or
f7 'T F (''t .;I_r`i 1MG nYi (_v '_t>t~i a ii { MIr DO IIN i H
FU TiURE=. MR. SHACKLEY THEN EXPRESSED PLEASURE AT THE
OPPORTUNITY i0 AL I{ WI Tr PR SI DENT THIEU ABOUT I NTELLI G' NC_E-
RE LA T D MA TT ER S . PRESIDENT TH E I U ASKED IN THIS CO NT EX i
THAT HIS BEST :DISHES DE CONVEYED TO MR. COLBY WITH THE
CO MM EN T THAT THIL(T AND P RR I MiE MINISTER KH I E FI WE R M OS T
APP~REC I A T I VIE OF THE P AST C00PERA TI ON WHICH HAD TAKEN
PLACE BETWEEN CIA AND THE GVN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY,
PPEES IDE.iNT TH IPU THE'NJ WENT rtN 1 i s!;Y rtiAr T t 'F n;-;T
W H I C H 11-LAD SEEN PUT I N T O DEVELOPING A GVN I N T E L L I G E NC E
1i
CO MM UN ITY DURING M R a -HACE_E:Y'S !S,':-RV ICE- IN SOUTH VIETNAM
WAS BEING GO NTINUED BY MR, POLGAR AND HIS ASSOCIATES
WI TH THE ,NE`i RESULT THAT `rHE~ GVN INTELLIGENCE SE RV ICES
HAD II1pp,`ROVED OVER THE YEARS AND WERE NOW PROVIDING THE
PR ES ID EN I Or SOU TH VIETNAM WITH MORE AND GETTER INTELLIGENCE .
B. NORTH VIETNAMESC; FORCES AND THEh'ER CURD fj,
DEPLLOYMENT,
MIR. POLGAR THEN TOOK OVER THE EIRIE ING AND
ADVISED PRESIDENT THIEU THAT INFORM,1,'iYON HAS NOW AVAILAELE
W H I C H INDICATED T H A T THE 312TH T O
HAD STARTED
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M t7 'I N S 5 0 1 1 T '-~ A 0 0 N 3.1 M r`, N ~(; :? . i i V':. r,'
BE IN THE THO SON AREA OF NORTH VI? TNAM, THE 338 TH
DIVISION HAD STARTED MOVING SOUTHWARD IN NORTH VIEETNAI
ON 13 FE`3RUARY AND WAS NOW I N THE GENE CAL AREA OF XO N
H1) I, WHILE THE 3210 DIV ISION Hine ALSO MOVED SOUTH AN'.)
ELEMENTS Or IHIS DIVISION HAD 8E'P1 CON' rI'RME.D Iill THE
HU ' AREA A S Or 3 1 MA RC 11 -1 19 75 5 I N AD DI T I ONJ , MR , FO LG Air
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S S. ,Q THAT ELEMENTS OF I
!AIR Di_ =NS, DIVISION
WERE NON ARP EA kING I N THE
TAY NI NH A RF ALL OF THIS
IPJ`r'ORP.+ f IOi1 (7N THE MOVEMENT 0 NORTH V ETIN AM .`}r DI VISIONS
IP.J 1iJR H V IETN,AM AND TO SOUTH VIE JAM SEEMED TO P-7: NE-11-1
I,INTtt1.LLIG(NCL FOR PRLSID: 1NNT T1,1IEU, AND HE TOOli APP-RORRiA`lF
NO r O F' THIS DANA ON HIS NOTE PAD.
REVIEWED FOR RR!,`ID N'r ` i1..HIEU THE CURRENT DI`>POSI TIO(`'J Ui'
NVA DI VI SI ONAL ENTITIES IN SOUTH V IETN;,M, TI.1I 5 COVE I)
THEE 1.7 U N 1 TS TH T WERE D, PLOYE11, IN SOUTH VIE T..',,41 AM AS 0i
? Air P I L 19 75 . P 'RESIDE NTr
T H I EU A LS O TO [1!{ N 0'i ES C ii Ti-1 E 'i ..
UN i 1 S AND COMIPAR'r D MR, PCL.GAR' 3 ;h F OP JA'f ION WITH A
WOiRi(SHEET THAT WAS ON HIS DESK, WHICH CARRIED OD S TA i ICS
AS Ppt_pA D Y THE JGa J,-2,
~.' AN) iJ i i ,~1 i _ ?} i . ,
MR. SHAC{f~.EY DISCUSSED TH E ODIC OF HANOt'S
IN'rk-=NT I0NS WITH PRESIDENT THIEU AN1) MIATHE POINT TH,i
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WH ILL HARD INTELLIGENCE WAS LACK I P.! C, T HE PE n0 U APPEAR
TO 3 TWO OP`CI GNS WHICH HANOI MAY NOW LE CONS! VERI NG.
i'HESL OPTIONS WERE DISCUSSED AC rOL,LOWS
(1) EXPLOIT FULLY THE TACTICAL ADVANTAGE AND
M U W E NI U iii WHICH H A N O I H A S O B T A I N E D O N THE B A T T L E F I E L D
IN ORDER TO INFLICT A FINAL AND TOTAL MILITARY DEFEAT
ON T HL GVN A S PROMPTLY A S POSSIBLE.
(2) EXPLOIT THE CUWEEN T FLUID SITUATION ON
`HL CAT'iLE:EIELD IN 0FUER TO COLUUL.IDATE EXISTING
GAINS WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ALSO ATTEMPTING TO TArt( R , 1 .A r H CC O:R 01 l
ECT CO DEVELOP OINE DIVISION PETE MON1'H OUT O" THE
DORC,EIS THAT MERE BEING' REGROUPED. IN VIEW O~- THiS, PRESID NT
THI U MADE: THE POINT THAT 1113 MIDST PR:SSING NEED WAS VOR
''PE-i I. w, TIME T 0 REBUILD HIS E"OR0I STRIJCTURE.
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MR . SHACKLE Y NOTED AT THAT JUNC1 URE THAT THE FUTURE GVN
FORCE STRUCTURE WAS AN;ISSUE THAT GENERAL WEYAND WAS
OOOXING F'OR'WARD TO DISCUSSING WITH PRESIDENT THIEU. THE
PRESID NT PICKED UP THE SIGNAL IN THIS COMMENT AND STATED
THAT HE WOULD ELABORATE HIS VIEWS ON THIS MATTER IN TH-
DISCUSSIONS WITH GENERAL WEYAND AND AMBASSADOR MARTIN,
E. POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN SOUTH VIETNAM.
PRESIDENT THIEU STATED THAT HE WANTED TO TAKE
THE OPPORTUNITY Or BEING ABLE TO TALK WITH MESSRS. POLGAR
AND DH AC KL EY T 0 OUTLINE TO THEM SOME O F THE PROBLEMS
AT pr_ uAp CURRENTLY FACING IN THY POLITICAL ARENA.
THE SITUATION ANDS WITHOUT PAUSING FURTHER, THE PHE S1DEN'i
PRES IDENT ST ATEC THAT HE THOUGHT THAT I T WAS IMPORTANT
THAT AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS UND::RSTAND HIS VIEW
LAUNCHED INT0 WHAT HE PERCIEVED TO BE THE CURRENT
.-E3SURE? ,HAT AM WORKING ON HIM, THIS
PART OF TIE CONVERSATION WAS ACCOMPANIED BY THE GRAPHIC
DRAWING OF DIAGRAMS ON A PIECE OF PAPER AND THE ORGAiN [--
IIA T I ON Or HIS PRESENTATION INTO THREE PARTS. THESE
PARTS CAN BE DESCRIBED AS FOLLOWS
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( I ) MODERATE POL,ITICIAI4S? PRESIDENT THIEU
STATED T H A T A MONTH OR S o AGO HE HAD BEEN AP PR O A ~'H E=G
BY IRAN CUO0 BUD, BUI DIEM, DAP- VAN SUNG AND TRAM
VAN [iO WITH THE PROPOSAL 'I HAT THE GViN E[' R QRGAiA1IZ!I)
IN ORDER R THAT THERE COLD!) BE BOTH GREATER GOVERNMENTAL
:r! ICIt:NCY AS WELL AS A BR OAi NINE OF THE P0LI`rICAL
!3a`_` , ACC0FR D1N!G TO f'r?'ESIr.;ENT TI -'IE!J T HESE GENTLEMEN
HA U TO L- HIM THX I Y Vii' ED 0."- ND I N C TH I S
RE0RGANIA`rION IN ORDER TO MAKE THE GOVERNMENT MOR
E.;~_ C I EN T, IN ESSENCE , H Y [: l:a l;a T O WANT T o
T
THE C!.aP f''!' PCl_ IC TES n,i,
6-11= GklN C~UT ONLY NO
....IC1EINILY A'~ A I?E-SUL1, PR'_SPN`r HIEU A I)
H T 'L C
THEM TO OUTL INrE THEIR PRO[P'OS.~'I., Oa PAPER AND H,E MOULD
STUDY THFI R VIEMS, EARALL EL T O THIS OVERTURE,
PRi :a IDEN, T THIEU HA!) NOTED THAT GENERKY, FATHER
,4 Aiti,IT { I'.~i.iS 3LD !:7 "I
!'WERE GETTING TOGET HEMR E
TO S UG G~Sr TK~ i THE cov=1~NME: iN,
!3E 1?l:0PGANIZ' ED ON THE ESASIS `!`HAT: PPE SI!)EN I THIEU
WOUL- D R EMAIN AS CHIEF OF STATE: BUT THA C r U A L POk`_RS
OF GOVERNMENT MOULD DE TURNED OVER TO A. PRIME MINISTER
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 SIE RET
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LI;;v~ GENERAL MY, UNDER THIS AGW: ME NT THE SPONSORS
Oil- THIS PROPOSAL, WOULD HAVE BE ',?AC.TO POWWE:R T RMNSFERRF11
TO THEM IN A LEGAL WAY AND TH `! WOULD `MEN ATTEMPT
` O ~~AM THEE GOVERNMENT FUNCTION ETO E FF FC. T i VE LY
I J ; I IL E AT T'.:. m1P 'r I NG T O REACH SOME P ULL I T I C,L SOLUTION
WITH 1-IAN OI PR :SI DENi THI EU 5 r!AY11D TE11-1E EJ S NOT
SYN T TIC: 10 THIS PROPOSAL U, uC.'sE FE C)UL[) NOT
~ Ei:.
F N V a I ON i 1 ; A " i A s r ' ' ` - R N I 1 -RJf f 1 EA 'E U E3`'' G N :E A!._ KY OR
l . N Y O E LSE I d I NT . GROUP C, F P POLITICIANS WOULD RE
AN =,CC,f PTABL E-. N.`.COTIAT .1 111"1 TO Hi%N101
(2 ) SENATOR I';?Ai`I VAN [.AM. f''RE'STDE:`JY YRIOLI TH _N
l'1r:Nr G
P A ~ ~ ... ~ K TO A N SAY TE4A'i .iE HAD E3E C: (;N'r!.C: D IEJ i;i
~, I E I D I'\~ O N 1 APRIL C1i SENA f~
I rr aG A ?a ;v
TE R'ES11DE IN,
`i; AN VAN LAM, HHO WAS PE( OPOSING IH ;`1 EHi _ 1-3E?C0I':t r, w rr
~. I T ~ R
E4 1 PRAM MINI5IEER OR THE ACTINI WE_AD Oit STA'1E.
THAT IF Hi~i H RE THE HEAL) 0F 'r;~G: G0VERNh'=_ Jr fa'E ;OLi
L_D
BE' AP;LU TO NEGOTIATE AN ACCOMMGDATIL1N WITH HANOI
GR A CGALITION' GOVERNMENT INCLUDJCOJC NATIONAL. L. IE3FFE-R'RA`E'ION
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rR0NT ELEMENTS PRESIDE-NT THI`LU STATED THAI HF
FOuN THIS PROPOSAL TO CRE UNREALISTIC FOR HERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE 1HAT HANOI WOULD NEGOTIATE WITH SENATOR
L `~. IN ^~DDI'i IONa HE COULD NOT CONCEIVE ol" HANOI
N ; 'NG AN ACCOMMODf;'CI ON WHEN THE HAD HE? UPPER
HANND ON 1TH DAr ~I T LEE IEL D ,
EZEO.~ R~u"?NTZr11'ION OF TAl' E4.. _ G0J1 E I :E__ N T
r,fti~, L3Y
PRIME MINISTER I{HIPM PRESIDENT I'HIEU STATED
T 1.= I E 3 L I r it I T
1WAS REPRESENTED 5Y P,RIME HINT - EP K HI ' EE t-0R'r:
'r 0 R :aRG ANIiE TH GOVE RN ',IENT I?I ORDER TO MA E I'r
MORE EFE' IGILNT AIN U DROADER H.ASE D. THIS FFI17ORT WAS
NOT OVINU RAPIDLY PER PRE IDENiT TWIEU IsLGAU E
PRIME MINISTER }CHIF:M WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN GETTING
ANYBODY TO AGREE TO SERVE IN THE GoVERNMM1;'NT WHO WAS
COMPETENT, AN ANTI NCOMMUNI ST AND HAD ANY KIND OE" A
POLITICAL FOLLOWING, THIS WAS DUE IN PART BECAUSE
THESE PEOPLE WANTED PORTFOLIOS of HIGHER STATURE IN
OTHER GOVERNMENTS THAT THEY THOUGHT MICI-Ir BE 1,011MED,
I,,, BY SENATOR LAM OR GENERAL NY. PRESIDENT THIEEU
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NJT. D THAT PRIME i?9INIS'i"rR KM1 M WAS AI>S) HAVING
%;?Or i t=MS I N FINDING PEG?U WHO WOULD AG O SERVE
A NATIONAL- ADVISOR COUNCIL WHICH WOU!_!'j SUMPORT
S NEW G0 V ~ RN M1 `E T
A ! is R 0U T I., I N I N G T HIE: AiR R V E: OPTION S 9 14 R' S 1 D= NT T H I EU S L{ A T L D
THA.` F GR THrE MOMENT HE WAS P )P, RE0 T /0 U RbyU E. OP's ION
J DP! RHIEM COUL D NOT f'0RM A G 0 ~d E P`iIjEt?~i!+, !fiE IAS
1 I4_r.ING TO ACCEPT A NEW PP,IN?1- 1M1INI3 are ;-~n t 0iJLD SHO ; H
~~.~w HE O LD n:t''~11\ A V._~ 1;1~`~A ' 3N -1 ;1! 0 ANTI
CO IST ;-1ERS "NAi_.ITIES WI T'H P0I.IIICAL jU f'U~I IIN
I JS CON T : vT NIR SHACK1.rY STATED THAT IR 7 H E
P SI0 N T
O U a I HE 0e I N'iEREN it.4
FS' (A L I~SHMENT (3 A N4W GOVE~ NMENr V;. ;a ri;I??~ MI 1 5?~E
KF!?iMs SHOULD DO SO PROMPTLY. RRESIi)EN T T'HI":IJ
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THER WAS A NEED FOR NOViNG RAPIDLY
THE r:ONV HSA I ION T?;E N SHIT T ER INTO A I3r,IEF R M RK OR IWO
ON HORAI..I_, AND IWE PRE 3 ID`NT A1C,{NO!II_rDG D TL-1 i HE? HAD
TO ADDR"E- SSS H IM i -L T O THE MO AI_E I'S;!JE IN A PRON PT NE R
ttryry { .4.1
:) u rJ yl 1`It:^N I S,
MIS, SHACK1,E'Y IHAD HOT SEEN PR~SIDE:-z N l T H.i.:U SINCE
AUG!US T 19731 f!{ ~R -F'OI?t 1'; 1i 1-A : ^,iJ OQ` U'!!'1 't TO 1)'), :'W
SOME C0NT-IASTS, 1N A PHYSICAL ;Ei SE, PRESIDENT THIEU
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HAD NIDT CHANGED IN ANY NOi ICE_A[3LE WAY EXCEPT THAT HE HAD
A'CDUTRED A LITTLE HONE GNAY HAIR, IN TOMS OF A`ITITUDES,
PRESIDENT .H IEU WAS Ou..TE 5U DU::U f?1 CONTRAST WITH
PREVIOUS MEETINGS DIIICIi 4N, SHACKL_Y HAD HAD WITH HIND
PPESID`EIN`I' THIED WAS ALERT, HO'WEl'N, AND SEEMED `CO HAVE
A GOOD GRASP Or THE BASIC FACTORS CONFRANTING HIM AND
?1; W VIEiil.Ai`'m 7;,.=ww ..)n
;m 70 O I M H:\N:).i
HE A: aEAHED CO US LESS REALISM .N E.J .MATiNG THE TIM-
:-ACC OR AVAILABLE FOR HIS TYPE O )OL.UTII)N, AND HAD sOa
DI;'; ICULTY ART ICUL ATING SOME OF Hl ; THOUGHTS, AT TIME -3
HE SEEMED 4 O BE ALMOST CHOr1Sr] U W I T H ENO I iON AS HE
U1;.sGUUSs::1i NAI1Ui'Ai_ r'HUut_06, 11 A;';.' ;A[_:Ll i!-ii
IN (N
MEET ING THAT THE PEES1DENI WANTED TO USE THIS CONVERSKITO'''!
TO CONVEY TO MESSPS, SHAcKLEY AND POLGAH HIS OWN
AWARENESS OF CURRENT POLITICAL CROSSRURMTS IN SOUTH
VIETNAM, HE DID THIS IN A STRAIGHT-FORWARD, LOW XEY
MANNER, WE COULD NOT FAULT HIS ANALYSIS OF THE DONESTY.,
Si i'UA T ION BUT WE DID SENSE A CERTAIN D'EMO.CENr-SS AND LA WK
OF HIS PREVIOUS AURA OF COMMANDING CUNI? I DENC w IT WAS
QUI'CE EVIDENT THAT HE WANTED HIS VIEWS ON THE MESA!,
POLITICAL SITUATION PASSED 10 KEY POLICY MAKERS IN
TIE UN i'1 ED STATES GOVERNMENT :ill ?iHXT THEY WODL..1) UN DE PSTA`'} l
:'1T WAS W~r~ N`. 4? Ir ~ c , J d ~ v
THAT k- KNEW - WHAT ~!' ON + IN HIS ' ~~~.'HES.I,IC FP.ONA'i
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