DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMUNITY ANALYSIS MODEL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01082A000800020003-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 25, 2004
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 26, 1974
• Content Type: MF

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DCI/IC-74-0341
26 March 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR: A/ D/DCI/ IC
SUBJECT : Development of a Community Analysis Model
1. Introduction
It is proposed to develop a Community Analysis Model as a
means of investigating major trends of intelligence concern, under-
standing the causes of these trends, their interrelationships and
implications, and from this understanding, assess resource impacts.
The primary objective of a Community Analysis Model is to
provide a quantitative reflection of changing activities and needs in
intelligence and, on a basis of these interrelationships, an estimate
of the way in which they might change in the future. Such a Model
would facilitate the development of policy and the formulation of
program objectives, the structuring of broad-ranging R&D programs,
and the improved allocation of community resources and manpower.
The basic requirements of the Model would be to present a view of
how world events might occur and to assess their impact on the
intelligence community; to bound the rapidity with which events could
occur. and establish the need for quick decisions (and policies)
based on limited, incomplete information; to qualify the degree of
interdependency among ongoing activities, and the feedback. needed
to make adjustments and shift priorities.
2. Application to Intelligence
The general objectives of a Community Analysis Model
- To function in direct support of management resource
and manpower policy decisions;
- To analyze changing community conditions for the
purposes of problem analysis and program development;
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- To enhance the xnanageme nt of operations, and
- To provide a more effective system for NFIP manage-
ment direction and control.
More specifically, the Community Analysis Model would
enable a broad analysis of the following intelligence community
variables:
A. World Perspectives through simulation of alternative
world trends. Simulation results would be used to project "most
likely" futures against which intelligence managers could devise and
shape effective resource and planning postures. U. S. interests
abroad would be defined through the World-Wide data bank.
B. National Foreign Intelligence Program Dynamics with
respect to resource and manpower levels (and rates of increase or.
decrease) through analysis of future trends of intelligence programs.
Such trends could be studied initially in terms of operational costs,
technical costs and manpower costs. The results from Model simu-
lations could assist in ensuring the development of a more cohesive
intelligence community and improve definition of long-term policy
objectives. Simulation results could be used also to assess the
future requirements for resources and manpower within cross-
program resource packages.
C. Production Dynamics through analysis of future trends
in consumer needs, the. quantity and quality of production, and the
dynamics of collecting and processing of intelligence data. Model
results would contribute to a better understanding, and quantification
of production/processing/collection dynamics and thus assist in the
development of more effective procedures for improving successive
iterations of the cycle. Simulation results would aid. in developing
future postures for collection, processing and production of intelli-
gence given a range of constraints i. e., manpower, dollars, opera-
tional environments, etc.
3. Proposal
A. Objective. To develop a Community Analysis Model to
aid intelligence managers to plan future objectives and courses of
action through an ICS funded contract effort. The Research and
Analysis Branch/MPRRG would serve as contract monitor and focal
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point for the Model development. Other groups within the ICS would
participate in the Model development as appropriate. The Model
would be tentative and change as insights appear. Aggregation would
be at a high level, no that variables could be refined and studied in
greater detail. As the Model became more fully developed the
results would allow for understanding of community dynamics and
optimize community evolution.
B. Methodology. The Community Analysis Model would be
.developed using the systems dynamics methodology produced at
M. L T. which would allow one to model and simulate the actions of
the intelligence community. The Model, a top-down approach,
would allow for the investigation of several major future trends of
community concern, including accelerating capital investment, rate
of information growth, manpower needs and rate and utilization of
intelligence production. The Model would serve as a tool for under-
standing the causes of trends in these variables, their interrelation-
ships, and their implications as much as ten years into the future.
Since M. L T. methodology allows one to handle imperfect, incomplete
data, as well as explicit time series information, the Model would
include key variables not as independent variables, but as dynamically
interacting elements. Because the variables in the Model are inter-
related through feedback loops, the methodology allows one to change
one or more of the variables and run simulations to see the effect.
after the change. The results would aid in identifying and under-
standing future trends and be useful for planning and policy interpre-
tation by facilitating the design of growth/no growth inducing policy
alternatives.
The systems dynamics methodology has the following
advantages:
- Fast, simple and sallows for rapid program changes;
- Presents future trends in graphic form;
Projects ten-year trends of the dynamic changes of
interrelated and interdependent key variables;
- Shows changes in future trends of one or more variables
on a computer terminal and the effects of change on other
variables. Provides analysis of numerous scenarios or future
trends before management. decisions are taken or policies are
selected. Facilitates rapid policy update as new information
is collected.
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- Identifies alternative actions. Provides for risk analysis
and trade-off studies. Determines through simulation the most
.desirable of the available sets of outcomes and, hence, the
preferred action.
Dollars in
C. Costs for 1.2 Month Study Thousands
3 Man Years (systems dynamics
expertise) 75
Computer /Software / Terminal
support 15
Rents and Services 5
Misc. support (travel, etc.) 5
Total. 100
D. Milestones (see attached)
D/MPRRG/IC
Approved:
25X1
25X1
Acting Deputy to the DCI for
the Intelligence Community
DCI/IC/MPRRGIIcid
Distribution:
1 - Addressee
,/f - IC Registry
1 - DJQ chrono
1 - MPRRG Subject
I - MPRRG Reading
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