THE NEED FOR A COMMUNITY REVIEW OF ITS ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNAL SOUTH VIETNAMESE POLITICAL SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01133A000700150002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 7, 1975
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release X006%07124 ~~`1'A-~;~~~1~1~11~~~~00150002;
lC 75-1305
7 January 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: D/DCI/IC
SUBJECT: The Need for a Community Review of its Analysis of the
Internal South Vietnamese Political Situation
1. Attached is Robert Shaplen's most recent article on South
Vietnam. I think it is particularly interesting where it examines-the
current state bf the non=communi-stanti-Thieu forces, the increased'-
-possibility:-that Thieu may step-down this year, and the non-communist
a1 ternati ves to Thieu.
2. The products of the intelligence community during the past
six months do not compare favorably with this article. I have att;ached
the most recent IM on this subject ("Political Discontent in SoutP,
Vietnam," l8 November 1974} for purposes of comparison.
3. The conventione~7 wisdom is that there is no "serious
or immediate threat to the authority of President Thieu and there seems
little reason to expect significant erosion of his political position
during the next three to five months."* Shaplen's article, while not
running the warning flag all the way up, qualifies as a devil's advocate
piece. Regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with the view
Shaplen presents, the community owes it serious. attention.
0 one ,
*Tntelligence Memorandum, "'Political Discontent in South Vietnam,"
18 November 1974. ~ ~tcF aces ~. 3-~4
L It1~~I I J~ E ~ _IMt'DET CL BY.~~?.( Y..L.._
Approved Far Release 1 4 :` C 15 002-4_
 Approved For Release 2006/07124 :CIA-RDP80M01133A000700150002-4
IC/PRD n
Distribu ion:
Original - Addressee
1 - IC Regis try
1 - PRD Chrono
1 - Area Br. Subject
1 - PFCA Chrono
Approved For Release 2006/07124 :CIA-RDP80M01133A000700150002-4
 j ~~~ ~~~,~ ~-~~~i it I\I~ttfl,_,'1' Il:lt! !:IBC I)tt,ilttl I:~itEl i.~Yt'
? p r R le )~/ 71 C 0{I,V,I,}{U,1133A0013t~?~~1h511 d~=~1it't,>t,tk are! th:lt l:i>-
~)F.~E?tla;lt _'; anti rnuih t,f !hr rrst of tia? t+urld- sin~rr hatl teitll the l'llin..,r in I'a?Itiin.
(ti:t 1'I(.':\L lltl rt'~[ 117 ti,,llilt 211, r11 ~~11 111 llii a1111U~[ ttl ~, li,l l?~: +itli a' IEIC ~..?, t11711;Cfl, ht5 \4't'rl' a,'dflt a~E~t'tl F.`
~' ~t,l'l11 `'rt'tlt:rt,lt"+t' tFt rt?ttCrEi
:it11a121 1~ unCC t17t,rC el'Uptlll!?!' Ills' Illt'~liitlt'e `IrIlY.1111 ir:r~thir t1:1> etl' ~ llh'
~ it 11:1> "~ oEtCl7 pl't,i l;tllll~d tll,,1'C IICC> ha1'C l,i a'[t 1~~>t Ar llh- peal t' t:ll,l t' tt, lCt trl: tatl Ftlrl!t??t`
'
1
'
U?
~
t
, a
cl
1~ :
~
- - tllh~ [
ht'f~rl?:, hLt l:7Le11. 1hC1'e llat?e 1,elll ~t,nit' 111 it,nll,at hil'C lllflll :Itltttl,a'li' a'l~t? utl SCi}s tt,tt;tt'tl :1 ltrnr`'-tt't'ttl `~'t(litllrett.
sins c,f non-Lonununist nationaii~t earth--...its I:Itr and fol?uulis ;trr I,;I:iia1- ?l?hr :\-ncrirlns ht-ld r.)nsit}rral,Et !i+?
~u'in~rtlt LJIa~ cnnld hr a 11~++? }tt,litiial It balk itt [lir lr.uttl. t,f till `,rrth :uttl lr+-rra,,r tEli> tinli, tEl,+u;~h, tlt:,n ++?h:?n
fai C?t'?- ~E,a?Ci~li 1111?, in hrlping tt>, hru- thr South \'irtn:unr;c thein~rlst?s rath- u?t: t+?t?rc still fulJt? cn~,*a~,t?d. "1 here asc
dui t' :1 117~,re tt'lllt? 1'Cjtl'C>t'lttatri'e tTt,C- c1? Ihall ]ll [ht,se t,f lttlt~ldi f~rrcca. ~)t lle,tt' t,171t $ett:ntt'-fnlll? htlndt'etl :~itlrt`-
crnnn?nt, ahlr to hu~? tirt7c in ne,otia- caul:,t:, it t+?uuld hr a mista)`e t? a~- ic:rn> hrre, of n?hum ::i.\[ct?n hundrerl
tion~ tcith the Comnulni>ts hefurc a sutne th:u thr L?ititrd St:+tr~, thr Sot-irt arc uflicial cin}tttit?cr;-just a huntl:?ctl
final shutt?dutsn. '1'hi> muccrnent faces L'nion. ;will China are no lonsrr ct,n- anti fortr-one of [ileIlt milit:u't'-:u,tl
a mtmhcr of f;nniliar handicap:, in- cernt?d about tshat happrns in 1'irtn;tlll the rest are hircll gut?erluncnt c?nuat--
ilntllll, [he. Clltllt'aS 1'ltalrt' :1tt7h11Q? t)I? that filet' :11?t.` Iltr 11,11"Cl? >llpptll?tlil`? tul?S :Itlll Itlltil"t'llalt4ntet~h:lt Ltasrre~:-
:IChiccr their unaltrreal :hill of conquer- ruin as ~t'rl1 :Is nun)hrrs of nlrrl and tent,-c,f the .~mericalts--rnl [Ile a:,i:fil. .
in,~ the ;;,,uth unr u?1)?? ur another. anuuults of equipment Ire talon into cniltincut arts still a mtst t?it11 matter,
+?rerthckss, 'the ~i,ut11 . \'iculalnrse considrr;uiun, is rt;ug111c et?cn.:1 Chin- :uul \jietnalla i:: stilI the kta? to ~thr
nationalist>. hcl:ausc thcl? are no lamer numist n7ti'mhcr of the nn>rihun[I Ll- :\siln t:quatitln. \\'llatet?cr coznpro--
hrcct hr pllohiaS :-hout a fast rlnlcrirul trrnauona! ~..ttillt711jtil,rn of Control ant} miles loaf noit? hate been rclcht:d bi?
lu?c:rrlct?, f't?ta that thr~- face a nrn? :Ind Sup, rrision ronunt?ntcd rrrcntlt, "Ol,c the hid potvcl-s tin [he- Vietnam gtlcs-
thllJrn~in~~ opportunit~?. It is soon lil:r- side is not strum, enou~,ll to tsin, and tion tt?ill ~o a lung tua)? tuWard dtctcr-
h to hr tc,trtl-:Ind st- is the "I'hiru the other is not tscak rnou_~h to iu;e'r- rnininn What happi ns when peace tall,
;;utt?rnmt?nt itself-in ~ frr,h rowel of refcrt.?nies to Hanoi and ;iaigon, rt:~pcc- rrsunle, .po55ihl~? earlC neat te:lr. :\L
pt?aia' tall, ill }':It?is anti in \'irat:un. titrl)?--which sernlcd to mr a rn4ent that [imc, I'residcnt `I'hiell has hititctl,
\ot+? that 1'iitnant lla. t:ca5ed to be a summation as v7t' I bare ht:arti, he tit?il] ~u further tllall he has ctrr
tht? p:11':IIllt,lltl[ anti all-Ct,77Sl1it7111~; 1S- 17t11'lll~ Chc t'ttllt'l'I'tiaLUt[15 that PrcG- CeC ~t)Ite }n gflerln? LiIC Ilrt,t'1tiUrr7:d
sec it tuu?r tsar ist thc? L'Ilitrd ;~tatt?; idcnt 1~ ord and Set:rt?tar~' of State Hcn_ Kctalution:lr~? Gc,rcrnmcut t,f South
'
-
'
s Southern artn, :t
icLrtain, I-I,?lnui
\
? , chance to discuss scriothlt? this political
future of the countn'. T}l~,u~,h t.hr
I'.R.G. clrclaretl in a radio hn,atIca4t in
Octaher that it twill trot [:ill: tei[El.
? . "1'17ietl :ls lot7ir as Ile rcrnaina in puerrr;-
~ ~-them is ntl reason tc> be}irte that d,C-
Colnnlunists mc:ul it anJ? more Seri-
ouslt tu,tt? than tlteti` did E7t:forc tllct-
? ne`~otlatctl ul Yarrsy When thet said the
su17t: thin. If whatever Thieu offers is
I L~ottd cnt)uglt, thet- will crrtair7i~? dis-
cuss it-etcn if, as before, thct- cort-
tilllre to talk and fight at the saint time.
The substance of a T}tieu offer tvuuh{
! probabl)? he as follows: 1'hl: Suutlt
\'ir.tnl[nesc WiII agree to the rst:-hlish-
I
Itlet7L c,f fll?Ttl tletnarcatte)n liilt'S :ltltl
tshat anlcnl:lt to ht7t~cr Tune:: hcttueclt
the oppusilt, pal'tics-as has been done
? i in Lao>, tslterc, su far, SlInilar 1l'1:'ln~e-
mcnts art: tuorkin~,. ~I'hr ;iait~n ~~ut-_
rn7n7cnt t+?ill also fin:Illr a?~rcc to the.
:ettin? up of a tI?ipartitc ~atioual
Counri? of \atiun:d ldct:nilciliatioo :Intl
!~ Coneurd, a, outlined il: the ori::ina!
I'ari~ aicot?dy ~~ivin,~ equal toltra D, tht-
Communist, the 'I'hicu ~?o~t?rnint?nt,
:uul a ~ultpo?cdi~? _tlcutr:d' cla?e?~:a,
N'hcrat Illtallitt?1'S :,IY U.t 1'e altl)rt.Yt'tl i,t'
!?' tti h fataluft::. -}?ii.? jt..?~.(~.
Approved Far Release 2006107/24 :CIA-R?P80M01133A0.0%Ob'~~OOb~-4r
 pr,~-t~?ttr ~,~rrrarnrer t r,E ,art t,E S~,uth
~'it:trr;rrtr in icti t?,\\~rr~~~~~~ .F~r~R~l ase 2006/07124 :CIA-RDP$OM01133A000700150002-4
nize?t?',capita} ?in L,,c \inh, near the,;
L am i?xlia n h,,rdrr--curl c?ssinns that t.1T~~
C?rnnauni~t~ dr~peratell' l-:utt,':~lt,n~,
tv'ICIr rl'~,t~rlrrtl,tit f,f t1rC iCt~a~ ~t1t11$ ,lf
th~?ir nrt?n armed ft,rce~.,' l~he ct,tuept
t,f h~,ltlin?, ~~.?ner:ni ~lectiturs in\'ulving?
h?th C.'uminuni:a :ut~L'iron-Ctnnmurti:r.?
factit,lr> \\'ill Itie at:cepted ht? Sai~~t time. 1?nkinc.: tcnvarll the even-
T
foal selccti?tr t,f a neL\? \atit?tal :1s-
semhls, anti :llsn, prrhaps, a Ca,nstituent
:~?~eltlhi\?, ts, L\'r'Itt7 a pCk1' l't immellint~lt? :ip- .
p;u?cnt th:u neither ride: Leas pre:}?:irrd
tc, talk ;~ rit,aslr? :Ihtwt a prrman~nt set- _
tlentcrrt. ?1?he fightinx in ~~ietn:un
sc:u?crl~? ahatrd as each side vit~tatrd tht:
rraselire in an ntR?rn},t In .;rah as rnurlt
ct,ttte:aetl tt'1'!'Itt,rti' a:+ pt,slhle, alyd
li~~htim~ hay cuntinurd .at a cart ing
pace c\?rr since, rrachin~~ a peak in
- :1u~~ust ant} tieptrtrthir t,E this t't:ir.
;lftrr slackrning snrmwhat ft,r t\L??
nt.+ntlrs, it },i: krd up again in the first
lrllf t,i 1)ect:min?r, partly liwin~, tt, ehe
;tnnu:rl cumpt:titimr Eor purtittrts r,f the .
ncu? rice hart?e?>t. tl'hilr thr Ct,mmu-
nists h;n?e .ciic?tt nu,r~: land, nntahly in
the >uuthrrrtmu;?t pat?ts t,E the i~Ieknn~,
llelta and in the northern;tit:r of the
cnuntrl', thec are pmatel,~~?r admitting
that :u this tilni: the}' l;tintrt~l? as little
as sevret per cent of South Vietnartt's
pc,}nllatiun t,f almrst twenty milliun..1
few rncxtths a~n, they were private]}'
claimin_~ t-~-elvc l7er cent, while puhlic-
lr asserting th;u thry represented a ma-
jt,ritc of the pet,},Ic. "I'hcir ntnst rrccnt
plans, :ICI:,,r?ding to t,rllers given tt,
their trcu,p~, call ft~r a furthrr st,:pped-
up ~eriri ?f attacks in the nt:xt LL4U
nu,ntlls, anti neither ~'~'rstern nur'l'iet-
namese intrlli~cncr sources in Saigt,n
rule tuft the p,~ysihilit}? l,f a gcnerai t,f-
fensi.r, L\'ithin the next tu'tave tncurths,
cc,nrhinin~~ nc~ strategti? and tactics of '
the 19Gti "1?et t,ttensivc and tht 1972 ?
l:a>ter t,tien~iL?e-the first of \ehich
cr,auentrated un the cities and the ser-
anr,l ?n the c,ulntr~?yidc. With arcnlnd
thrr~ huntlretl thousand s?ldirrs in the
$nntL, :Ih,,:;t a l}uartcr of them h>cal
Victc?n~~ trc,~,pti :nul the rest i~orth
~'ictn;tme?;c regular;, and with ample
"1,;,1,:~'''Irt1i`ll"kpprov@dtFor~R@Ir@lase 2006/07124 :CIA-RDPHOMO1133AOOO7O0150002-4
 :III`i l:r1l l1't':Ip ,It?, tree' ~.. nnun;r:,i. y; .u ; .. ,.u??.,, r~, 1. ...' .t.t. .. ..
full\ iaha;,lr nt :uu,thrr : 1 - ut tl?rn- tt r 1 t~~ t.'t ~I?hirlt hay l,rrn I;~c1 Iar~i- c,f iti: f:urtilt?, :uttl llis sutall, rlnjs-It ktut
A~~rQve~ ~'q~- ~el~~sel~t~~~~`~(?~4 ~~P~ M~1 3A
~i\t?? (astin't\\'~~ > t tree c u tt t: t t.t t L.?~?f~f~li t Q I 1 ~~ OtQQtaialQ~SQQC~~ltgtd ttx h:t\t rtt-
alt'c;rnati\.?l~?, of ntaintairtin,~ the pr, s- turn' -at )rapt, ~~+ far. `1?lti~ is n~utt r.-- ~r:rgrrt in. It arrust(1 ?I?hicu of ttlalatt?~
t'ltC }taie of tiS~*ltttng for fout? taC t1Pr Itlal?kahle lil ;;,riltli 1rh'Cllant, tr~i' tort htl~r Ixrntltti fl'nm t'tal-CtitaCt' dcal~; nt
tears. '1'ht~ it?\?e?I of milital'y aCti\?it\ in nnlt? are the Catlu,liis a minorit\ of rnndnnin~r sptt:ulati\?tr fcrtili?err drat:
the nt,vlths ahr:ul thus mi~~lrt \\cl1 d.'- t\t?u tnilliun (nt,,;tl\ rrfu~~rr; \ti~h? tlt?tl rn;~int?rrctl lx\ lei; \t?ifr's I:rt,thrr; t=f
prlttl ,~I1 Illy pt'a~e C:flki, if t11.C ?tal'[ ~t,rth ,'lt?Ctlalll afR'1' the t'tttl Uf tllt? pt'r[lUtllliti 1r1S \t'Ifr trtLtlat:C htl`,-Tt'hrr,tlC~
in t?arnra. 1f ~Ft:uu,i, \vhich has plt.'nty hrrnrh Indn-C'hin:r \+:u?, in 19~+1 but trout a priratt hospital in tiainu that
of rr,~nnlttli :Intl ItU,I':Ilt? prtlhlt'nls n~ 1C~ the Ilannn;ll `?*?uCrl'nlllrtlt has hrrtt sllr l:ati narnsihlc 1xtilt [t. ttrlix Litt-
mrn, ran hu\? tints ht' gcttin the dontinatrd h\ (:atholirs fur tnr,=t of the prtu?; ref alhnt'in~~ srnnt of hi; ,:h,:,,:st
N.I:.(;. lr:;;tli~r;l, and thus ltrrlr,trin~_ last t\\t, tlt?t?atlrs -fit'>C Its tl,r rc~*iutr t,f ntilitru'- ant! civilian as::n,-i:ttr. t?~ lar.,tit
til~ ~~rt,ttntl\\?t,rk ft,ra ct>alitiun ~~u\?~?rn- \;~r, 1)irth Oi~?ln, h~?t\\?rt?n It?~5 anti frt,tn :r \;tst llcrt,in traflit:---ire \\tr.`t:h.
tnt?nt, it \?.i~l prnh;rhl}' do sn; if the talk, 196,i, atttl since 1961 in that r,f ?l?hicu. it \\?a?: su,~~r;artl, I-~ ttt:tt? h:t\?r hart a
tail to ::.t t,tF the 7rountl, the sec