USEUCOM EVALUATION OF INDICATIONS AND WARNING MATTERS RELATED TO THE MIDDLE EAST SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01133A000800050006-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 32
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 18, 2004
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: April 7, 1975
• Content Type: MF

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7 April 197';
MEMORANDUM : D/DCIfIc
SUBJECT USiaCUK Lvaluation of Indications am'.
Warning Matters Pelated to the
Middle East Situation
1. In an effort tr, i!iprov1 indications and
analysis of the Middle trst sl.uation, J-2 USLVCO s ti.
process of reviewing the 1967-1974 developments, with
emphasis on the June and ...7:ctober wars and the tensim
from June 1969 to Marc!, :L972. On the chance that this
subject may be discussed at the F 9 April l&W zonferte,
you are attending at DIA_ I thought the following pera4:7-71Ph-
might be of value 13 baoround.
2. The 113EUCOV objective Is to identify Egyptisa, ftrld
Syrian war preparations, Coviet nwareness of an rec,ct: t_
these preparations, tree( categories of IAW 'ilvents'
"sub-events, initial inricators, final indicators, ar,
significant tiste sequerete.
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MEMORANDUN 0 '/Cl/IC
EitiBJECT
SECRET
DWIC-75-05?'
T April 19T5
ground for 6 - 9 April Indiefttione
and Warning Conference
1. The r.11owi.ng information which T p1ke. %
Headquarters Z1UCO 4uring my TDY on the nation* /toil
interface project relates to the conference you are t4
attend on 8 - 9 April at DIA or indications and warn1lc.
information is more than a mirth old but it still shoul
provide useful background.
2, As you are aware, UtniC representatives pres,_.
a briefing in Waahington iu December 1974 on 'Expecte(
Warning Times for UAW.- ts was an evaluatior of tt.e
expectation that if an attack were preceded by mobilixa
(added strength given preeederee over surprise) a warrier
time or 1.4 days could be expected, while without mobilizt,Aon
(with surprise being givea preeedence over strength) wart-
would be no more than two days. Within the 2 - 14 day
envelope, warning times would depend on how the Soviet
leadership chose to compromise between strength and su
3 The USZVCOM ? &lust on noted that warning
ding process of watohine indicators to det,rt,
od of war (the world situation) an attack (conelut
am the likelihood of war and readiness factors'
eh is the most elusive rector, usually c1etervi,2,1
actual act or wwr occurs.
I/S=0M considereU the Warsaw Pact forces wokld
require days to achieve ar optimm attack posture, end
could be ezpecte4 this 'Joule Sc detected about seven ;lays
after activity bean. The tse-day warning premise as
no significant mobilization or movesent of troops before o7
attack. (In this situatioa, USLUCON cosmidered only f'.eviet
force* would be involved. but MD-161-74 irplied east
forces also wouldparticipate.)
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6. As part of its analys s, USEUCM devised ite cricl
'-ecenario" involving nine i'ViOt divisions which asnuAed tt
MR would seek 1:axinut; loacealment, use minimum support
forces and be limited mostly to organic troop element,
initiated the last weekend in August (the traditional Ltios
vacation period) and be efficient in execution. USEDX1it
oonceded it would be difficlt to differentiate betwean
exercise and preparationz for attack.
7. Pollowing plies
18 December
19 December Seranar on warr...ng in wnicn '43ruCOM
also participated.
8. At the time I left USZUCOK (4 !iamb), a letter
DIA was in draft (but Lad IAt yet been seen by the CWAEW1,.
element) which would ask for official Approval of the in.11a-
tions and warning elements which =mom has identified
major events," 33C ''sub-events' with a potential for
hundreds more options within these sub-events. The unEun
command and control matrix itself 103,3 795 line entrieb on a
wall chart.) The USEUMI package also was to include a copy
of the briefing on IATC warning tires, a listing of the
audiences to which it had teen given, and a backgrousv
on how it was developed.
ation of
e USEUC
brief
ended
repreuel.1Av-s
9. What =OXON was hoping for
validation of the h2 major events and
official indications and warning lis
system established for changing this
sight warrant, and have responsibilit
indicators assigned to the intelligen
capable of following them.
2
was to get WasbaEtan
336 sub-events as 4.14
then have a formal
lit as the situation
es for watching then
e organization* moue
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14. USEUCOV. recozn ed that approval of the Dist
Data !ase concept would t needef if there was to br
division Of responsibilities for specific elements cf the
indioations and warninr net. There was some eoncern
J-2 staff as to whether rik woule agree to the assirnsw-nt
law responsibilities to overseas commands, although I
told that leneral Crahar, had tole MIXON he would move
toward" a Distributed Data Paso concept. USEUCOM hd
for a Distributed Data 1' remore than two years ago, btlt
that was at a time when it had more resources than it now
has. J-2 staffers recostixe that automated assistance woul'
be essential to ezecutior of their proposal. Vnles, tre
were some system such as AIMS (Analyst Intelligence 17,anla,
and Exploitation System)_ TISEMOH would require resource
augmentation. If DIA or other Whshington elements wer-1tc
somitar overseas activities, more resources probab17 wo-! A
be needed in Washington p_a well as oversems.
11. Overall, the Unrucom Objective is to improve
integration of the Itio effort and develop more speelfic
1 reporting and tasking aseignments in order to inerewe
timeliness of dissemination of TV1,7 information.
for thoso reasons that mmon is interest,_
AIDES project (Intelligence Analyst P!snlay
ysten). AIDES would provide compitcr
lied the handling of information and irerent-
or warntng saalysis.
The J-2 staff *onside?* that AIDES would le 1ror
USEVCO!'" to work with OaD Project 1955 (Warnir..!r
cement Prosrart), the Army's Standard Systex far
Support Torainals, the Eavy's Ocean Survoi Lune
System, and the Air Force Remote Terminal r
3
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15. My overall impression wLs that US1WCO4 has beuL
working very hard to Improve itg warning eapabilities. !uch
has been done to identify indicators to provide a bauline
against which I&W information can be assessed. The .7-7
staff, however, is not capable of monitoring tbe situattc
in the detail and with the speed that the analysts recterr
is essential. In my viol, they need computerised support.
16 As additional beskground material, I have atsseLa.1
a brief summAtion of the li14 atatus charts which J-2 113n:com
maintains and uses in daily briefings, and have written t.
*operate memorandum on a U3ZUCO2 study now in process w1 4th
examines the UV situation in the Aiddle Bast.
Attachment:
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w/att
Distribution:
0 - Adsee., Watt
1 - CS Chrono
1 - PD/D/DCl/IC, w/att
125X1 /k- IC Registry, w/att 1 -
25X1 DCl/ICS/C
Coordirat on Staff
Chrono, w/att
(7 April 75)
I;
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5. The daily presented on 3 March lieLee,:
contr1e--ow at flYCC 2, nine at DEPCON 3 and 6 #t
DEPCON 4.
6. representatives said one of the purpc,s
the I&W *ttW3 charts mug to enable the command to dirilop
a program in which its force posture responses anC inr.:st
could be used to increase the deterrent value of J,S.
In Europe and to create riveter 3oviet and Warsaw Ylont
uncertainties.
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IC-75-1386
4
Major General Lincoln D. Faurer, USAF
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Defense Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20301
Dear Line:
My letter of 26 February forwarded my comments on tivl
proposed agenda for the forthcoming seminar on Warning in
Europe. We look forward to participating in the discussirIns
and presenting a report of IC Staff activities in the I&W
area.
I hope to attend most of the sessions on the first dly
and am confident I will be able to stay at least through the
lunch hour. I will also be present for 'briefing
on the second day and expect to be on hand or the slimmar..,
and discussion period on the final day.
Additionally, USAF,
USN, USN, and
of my staff, would like to be pre3ent
and participate in all sessions of the seminar.
Sincerely,
Sam-21 V. Wilma
Samuel V. Wilson
Lieutenant General, USA
Deputy to the DCI for the
Intelligence Community
DCl/IC/PRI
Distribution:
Orig.--Addressee
1--D/DCl/IC
0-1-IC Registry
1--PRD Chrono
1--RS Chrono
4 Mar 75)
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IC-75-1381
26 February 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: D/DCl/IC
SUBJECT : Seminar on Indications and Warning in Europe
REFERENCE : DIA Letter Series
24 February 1975
'dated 25X1
1. The attached correspondence represents the formal
notice of and invitation to the DIA-sponsored seminar on
Indications and Warning in Europe. With few exceptions, it
is identical to the advance copy we received previously ard
to which we have already responded.
3. If you plan to attend the seminar but are not able
to attend all sessions, I recommend the following schedule:
a. D/DCl/IC attend all sessions on the first
day of the seminar.
b. D/DCl/IC be present for the IC Staff pre-
sentation (1330-1430) on the second day. (If you
wish - I will arrange for you to hear the CIA pre-
sentation in this Building prior to the seminar.)
c. D/DCl/IC be present for the discussion/
agreement session (1415- ?) on the last day of the
seminar.
d.
all sessions of the 3-day seminar.
be present for
4. I will draft a brief response for your signature
upon receipt of your comments.
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IC-75-1381 (Continued)
Distribution:
Original - Addressee
1-
1/ PRD Chrono
- IC Registry
1 - RS Chrono
IC/PRD/TB1
(26FEB75)
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CONTIDEITIA1
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Major General Lincoln r. Faurer, USAF
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Defense Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20301
Dear Linc:
DCl/IC 75-1361
Thank you for sending me an advance copy of the prlpo ed
agenda for the forthcoming seminar on warning in Europe. The
agenda appears to be quite comprehensive and, within its frame-
work, should provide the means for useful discussions and
informative exchanges.
I think you would agree, however, that to ensure adequate
warning in Europe many complex issues must be addressed, are..
of responsibility must be clearly defined and agreed upon by all
parties, and intelligence collection, analysis and reporting pro-
cedures must be perfected. It is unrealistic to imagine that all
this can be accomplished at one sitting and I note that you also have
anticipated the need for follow-up actions. Nevertheless, think we
would all profit if more time could be allocated for disc-lesion of
and, hopefully, agreement on these future activities. If you agre-,,,
perhaps it could be useful to explore the feasibility of having the
Washington area agencies gather for tutorial sessions prior to tke
seminar with our EUCOM colleagues. This would enable local
agencies to develop a common understanding of the community's
activities and capabilities which could be brought to bear on the
problem. Conflicts, redundancies, and "gaps" could be address !d
at that time and perhaps allow for a more definitive dialogue dust ag
the brief period the ELTCOM representatives are in town.
CLAF:ST17) 1ff _ Ott
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My final note on the agenda is the thought that the NSA
presentation might be rescheduled and given on the first day
of the seminar. It, like the scheduled EUCOM presentations,
is more closely akin to a statement of the problem which
succeeding presentatilns should hope to resolve.
Sincerely,
js/ SamuLl V. VT son
Samuel V. Wils,m
Lieutenant General. U3.1-
Deputy to the DCI flr the
Intelligence Community
IC/ PRD/TB:l r4 Feb 751
Retyped for changes: SVWilson/hf 26 Feb 75
Distribution:
Orig - addressee
1 - D/DCl/IC
1 - IC Ret.
1 -
1 -
1 -
1
1 - Subj. chrono
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DIA SEMINAR ON WARNING DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE
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TUESDAY - 8 April
*AGENDA
SUBJECT RESPONSIBLE AGENCY
TIME
0900-0915
0915-1000
Opening Remarks MGEN Lincoln D. Faurer,
USAF, Deputy Dic(!ctor
(DI)
Operational Require- J-3, EUCOM
ments for Warning
in Europe Warning
time required to
complete Alert Ac-
tions, degradation
of posture due to
false warning, etc.)
1000-1015
Coffee Break
1015-1100
Operational Require- J-3, JCS
ments for Warning
at the national
level.
1100-1145
Indications and J-2; EUCOM
Warning develop-
ments in the
European Commands.
1145-1200
Luncheon served in
Briefing Room.
1200-1230
WWMCCS Architect J-3,
Plan as it relates
to Europe
JCS
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1230-1315
Discussion of Polit- IDA,
ical Warning in NATO
1315-1400
"Timeliness of NATO Decisions
&
Desiqn
(INC)
Response to an im-
25X1
pending Warsaw Pact
Attack."
1400-1500
Latest Analyses of NSA
Soviet/Warsaw Pact
Exercises.
* Briefers should allow 10-15 minutes of the allotted time :or 25X1
questions and discussion.
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TIME
0900-1030
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SUBJECT
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY
Developments in the NSA
SIGINT community in
collection, process-
ing and dissemination
which will have near
and long term effect
on Indications and
Warning in Europe
1030-1045 Coffee Break
1045-1145
1145-1200
1200-1330
1330-1430
1430-1500
Developments in col- State
lection, processing
and dissemination
which will have near
and long term effect
on Indications and
Warning in Europe.
Luncheon served in
Briefing Room
Developments in col- CIA
lection, processing
and dissemination
which will have near
and long term effect
on Indication and
Warning in Europe.
(Intended projects
with their status
should be included.)
Developments in In- DCl/IC
telligence Community
interface, including
NOIWON, NOIAN, CRT
internetting of Cen-
ters, Alerting Memo-
randa, etc, and the
near and long term
effect on Indications
and Warning.
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THURSDAY - 10 April
TIME SUBJECT RESPONSIBLE AGENCY
0900-0945 Army Developments ACSI/DA
which will have
near and long term
effects upon I&W.
0945-1030
Navy Developments NavIntCmd
which will have
near and long term
effects upon I&W.
1030-1045 Coffee Break
1045-1130
Air Force develop- AFIN
ments which will
have near and long
term effects upon
I&W.
1130-1145 Luncheon served in
Briefing Room.
1145-1215
1215-1245
1245-1315
1315-1345
Developments in col- DIA
lection and process-
ing and dissemination
which will have near
and long term effect
on Indications and
Warning in Europe:
Developments in the DC/AH
-- Attache and other
collection programs.
5X1
The new Intelligence Strategic Warning Staff
Community approach
to Strategic Warn-
ing.
-- The small W prob- DI
lem, including DINs,
SDINS, Warning Ap-
praisals, and other
dissemination changes.
-- Status of NMIC DI/ISO
modernization and
associated message
handling and commu-
nications programs.
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1415-1500
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SUBJECT
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY
Status of NMCC Master 3-3, JCS
Plan.
Sum up Seminar, DIA
agreement on report-
ing, and agreement
on responsibilities
for follow-up actions.
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MEMORANDUM FOR: D/DCl/IC
SUBJECT
IC-75-1354
13 February 1975
Proposed Agenda for DIA Seminar on
Warning Developments in Europe
1. I think DIA has largely missed the point behind
Mr. Carver's and Gen. Ratkovitch's initial proposals for an
analysts' seminar on the warning problem in Europe. Rather
than concentrating on requirements and problems and then
developing solutions, the seminar now appears to be only a
convenient platform for each and every agency in town to
"show and tell" some pet projects. I suspect our EUCOM
colleagues will weary long before we finish the seventh
repetition of "Developments.. .which will have near and long-
term effects on I&W," regardless of who the presenting
agency may be.
2. If each agency has, in fact, some new and inter-
esting material to present, then I believe this argues for
tutorial sessk9na_fgr the Washington area Agencies prior to
the meefing with the EUCOM representati,yas. Our initial
Cao-dfaCts with the' VICOM J-2 indicate, to me, that they are
anxious for some assistance and guidance from the national
intelligence level with respect to their theater area
problems. I question the validity of using their brief time
here for the exploration and initial discussion of our own
interagency I&W activities.
3. As a final note, I believe the NSA presentation
"Latest Analysis of SovietZWvsay,Pact_Exercises" should be
rescheddida-and-TiVen-O-4 :the first day of the seminar. It,
like the sa-edUled EUCOM presentations, is more closely akin
to a-statetent of the problem which succeeding pres.entatiomi
should hope to resolve.
Distribution:
Original - Addressee
1 - C/PRD, PRD Chrono
1 - IC Registry
1 - Subj. Chrono
1 -
IC/PRD/TB
Appro%
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IC/PRO/TB
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DEPUTY DI RECTOR
FOR INTELLIGENCE
DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
MEMORANDUM
DATE
TO LTG Samuel Wilson, USA
Deputy to the Director of
Central Intelligence for
the Intelligence Community
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20505
Dear Sam,
I propose to send the attached to prospective
attendees shortly. Although the lead time
is appreciable, I think there is merit in
having the ISM community anticipate such a
session and truly plan to use it to their
individual and collective benefit. I
would welcome any comments you might have as
to thrust, agenda, attendees, etc.
501177
SECRET
--
LINCOLN D. FAURER
Major General, USAF
1
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tr
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SUBJECT: DIA Seminar on Warning Developments
25X1 1. DIA will host a three-day Seminar to consider present
and future developments bearing upon the many facets of
Indications and Warning in Europe. Both to avoid various
schedule conflicts and to allow time for preparation of
presentations, the Seminar has been planned for 8-9-10 April
1975. The sessions will be held in the National Military
Intelligence Center briefing room in the Pentagon.
25X1 2. EThe purpose of the Seminar will be to identify for
senior personnel those developments in collection, processing
and dissemination, either on-going or planned, which will have
a major effect upon Indications and Warning in Europe. Achievifg:
a multi-agency understanding of these developments should
improve agency interaction on projects, expedite accomplishmen';
of tasks, effect economies through joint efforts, avoid
duplication, and identify new approaches to improve Indication
and Warning on a worldwide basis.
3. I plan to attend the Seminar sessions. To facilitate
the attendance of senior officials, the Seminar will be held
during the hours of 0900-1500 each day. These hours should
1
'permit senior personnel to accomplish pressing obligations
?5X1
priOr to and following the Seminar sessions. Furthermore,
in.an effort to make maximum use of the time.of such personnel.
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we are investigating the feasibility of having lunch brour,ht
to the Conference Room.
25X1 .4. 411 We hope that at the conclusion of the Seminar the
senior participants can agree Upon follow-up actions on
identified problems or development areas. The participants
also must establish a mechanism for keeping each informed
on the progress, or lack of it,in the follow-up proceedings
In the separate agencies.
25X1
5. (
Enclosed is a proposed Seminar agenda. Before it
further distributed, I Would appreciate any comments you
may have as soon as possible.
-1 Endl -
Agenda (S/HVCCO)
1 Cy
2
4
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DIA SEMINAR ON WARNING DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE
Faurer,
TUESDAY -
8 April
*AGENDA
Remarks MGEN Lincoln D.
USAF, Deputy Director
(DI)
Requir-J-3 EUCOM
ements for Warning
in Europe (Warning
time required to
complete Alert
0900-0915
0915-1000
Opening
Operational
Actions, degradation
of posture due to
false warning', etc.)
1000-1015
Coffee Break
1015-1100
Operational Requir-J-3, JCS
ements for Warning
at the national
level.
1100-1145
Indications and Warn-J-2 EUCOM
ing developments in
the European Commands
1145-1200
Luncheon served in
Briefing Room.
1200-1330
Developments in the NSA
SIGINT community in
-collection, processing
and dissemination which
will have near and long
- term effect on Indications
and Warning in Eurone
25X1
time for discussion following
their
*Briefers
should allow
presentation.
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1330-1500
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Developments in collec- CIA
tion, processing and
dissemination which
will have near and
long term effect on
Indications and Warning
in Europe. (Intended
projects with their
status should be
included.)
0900-1000 Developments in collec- State
tion, processing and
dissemination which will
have near and long term
effect on Indications
and Warning in Europe.
1000-1015 Coffee Break
1015-1100
1100-1145
1145-1200
1200-1245
Army Developments which ACSI/DA
will have near and
long term effects upon
I&W.
Navy Developments which NavIntCmd
will have near and
long term effects upon
I&W.
Luncheon served in
Briefing Room.
Air Force developments AFIN
which will have near
and long term effects
upon I&W.
Developments in collec- DIA
tion and processing
and dissemination
which will have near
and long term effect
on Indications and
Warning in Europe:
2
IApproved For Release 200010128 C,r. 1A-RDP80M01133A0008000 -
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Approved For Release 2004
1245-1330
1330-1400
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1430-1500
THURSDAY - 10 April
0900-1000
1000-1015
-1015-1045
1045-1115
1115-1145
11)45-1200
10/28 : CIA-RDP80M01133A000800050006-0
--Status of NMIC
modernization and
associated message
handling and.,
communications
programs.
--Attache and other
collection programs.
DI/ISO
DC
--The small W problem, DI
including DINS; SDINS
warning appraisals,
and other dissemination
changes.
The new Intelligence
Communitj approach
to Strategic Warning.
Strategic Warning 3taff
Developments in Intel. DCl/IC
ligence Community
interface, including
NOIWON, NOIAN, CRT
internetting of Centers,
Alerting Memoranda,
etc. and the near and
long term effect on
Indications and Warning.
Coffee Break
Status, of WWMCCS
Architect Plan.
Status of NMCC Master
- Plan.
Status of Research on
Indicator Automation.
Luncheon served in
Briefing Room.
3
J-3, JCS
J-3, JCS
DARPA/RCA
25X1
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?
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1200-1245
Discussion of Political
Warning in NATO.
IDA,
1 24 5-1 3 30
"Timeliness of NATO
Decisions & Design
Response to an
25X1
Impending Warsaw
Pact Attack."
1330-1415
Latest Analyses of
NSA
Soviet/Warsaw Pact
Exercises.
11415-J 500
Sum up Seminar, agree-
DIA
ment on reporting,
and agreement on
responsibilities for
follow-up actions.
q"
7
? '11 I
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IA-RDP80M01133A000800050006-0
1200-1245
1245-1330
1330-1415
1415-1500
Approved For Release 2004/10/21 : CIA-RDP80M01133A000800050006-0
25X1
Discussion of Political IDA,( 25X1
Warning in NATO.
"Timeliness of NATO
Response to an
Impending Warsaw
Pact Attack."
Latest Analyses of
Soviet/Warsaw Pact
Exercises.
Decisions
Des:gn
NSA
Sum up Seminar, agree- DIA
ment on r?oorting,
and agreement on
responsibilities for
follow-up actions.
LI
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IA-RDP80M01133A000800050006-0
25X1
ei T - FON* . i :' Et - Mille0800
a" s CONFIDENTIAL SECRET
trflrAirtri
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
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NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
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Chief PRD
AD/DCl/IC
D/DCl/IC (tignature
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
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RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks:
The enclosed correspondence provides
D/DCl/ IC comments to General Faurer on the
proposed agenda for the DIA-sponsored
seminar on warning in Europe. It includes
the comments and guidance issued by
General Wilson on 18 February.
I have telephonically informed the DIA
action officer of V imminent
departure for Europe and of the invitation
for General Faurer to contact him.
General Faurer will be advised of this
today, and. if hechooses, will contact
L'today
or tomorrow.
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAM. AThnoirgill AND PHONE NO.
DATE
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SIGNATURE
Remarks:
General Wilson has the
this. Do you have any
in a proposed response?
original copy
comments to make
--) _ / ,
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FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME. ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
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Remarks:
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(47)
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