PRD COMMENTS ON 'LONG RANGE INTELLIGENCE PERSPECTIVES, 1980-1990'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01133A000800090008-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 16, 2004
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: September 3, 1975
• Content Type: MF

C O N F l D E N T I A L
/(_ ks
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP80M01133A000800094(68-4
MEMORANDUM FOR: C/MPRRD
ATTENTION:
IC 75-2494
3 September 1975
SUBJECT: PRD Comments on "Long Range Intelligence
Perspectives, 1980-1990"
1. We have quickly looked over your draft on long range intellic:ence
perspectives and, without going into a great deal of detail, we offer a
few comments.
2. I understand that this will be primarily an internal ICS
document at this point--a background paper to be used in MPRRD to
help in the development of longer-term resource planning techniques.
With this purpose, we think it not terribly important to worry too mud
about detailed suggestions on factual points. Rather, the most
important next step would be to develop ways to translate alternative
shapes of the future into implications for resource planning. When
progress has been made in that area then it will probably be necessary
to return to this draft to make adjustments and refinements to make
it mesh more fully with your resource planning methodology.
3. So at this time our comments are in the form of general
remarks, primarily on form and organization:
-- The paper is quite detailed and wide-ranging, and
could usefully incorporate a summary which sets forth
those key future contingencies that might affect our
collection and analytic posture in the 1980s.
-- It is far more predictive than it need be for the
purpose you intend. Looking this far into the future is a
game each reader can play with as much claim to presci-
ence as-anyone else. We suggest a more cautious
approach which outlines the alternative ways the world
might develop in the key areas, and avoid such state-
ments as "Western Europe will enjoy virtually complete
economic integration." Simi ar flat predictions occur
frequently throughout the paper.
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP80M01133A0008 0090008-4 25X1
CON FI DENTI AL.
 CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP80M01133A000800090008-4
-- The important issue is, for example, how different US
intelligence needs will be in the 1980s if Europe
becomes more economically integrated as opposed to the
situation if economic cooperation disintegrates and
disappears. If there is no difference the question is
trivial for intelligence resource planning. If there is
a great deal of difference then planning hedges may be
needed.
It would be useful if you included a'brief note of
acknowledgment on your principal sources. It would
give the reader a better sense of the authority from
which you speak.
4. In brief, while this paper is a start on the right road, we
suggest that you quickly move on to the next phase before trying to
refine it in detail, or seek to define more closely the myriad ways
the world might change by the 1980s.
25X1
Distribution:
,Original - Addressee
1 - C/PRD (& PRD Chrono
1 - PRD Subject
1 - Chrono
DCI/IC/PRDA
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : C1~4-RDP80M01133A000800090008-4
C 0 N F I DENT I A L
(3 Sept 75)