CONFERENCE WITH MR. MARSHALL, NSC STAFF, RE NSCIC WORKING GROUP AND PRG PROJECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01133A000800110033-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2004
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: March 15, 1972
• Content Type: MFR

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15 March '197E
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Conference With Mr. Marshall, NSC Staff, re
NSCIC Working Group and PRG Projects
1. The following comments relate to an informal conferenc=?
today with Andrew Marshall, Chief, Net Assessments Group, on Dr.
Kissinger's staff.
2. The India/Pakistan crisis study requested by the NSCIC
Working Group is underway with Curtis Jones of State as chairman
of the panel. The CIA member is
DIA is representing ASD/I. Mr. Marshall an Dr. Cline drafted a
tentative approach from which the task group will develop a
specific study proposal.
3. An evaluation of the intelligence input to NSSM 69 on
Far East policy is being conducted by Lucas Fischer of 0MB who 1--as
been loaned half time to Mr..Marshall for six weeks. He and Mr.
Marshall plan to set up a panel of experts from various elements
of the intelligence community to examine the intelligence inputs
to NSSM 69 and appraise their worth.
4. Mr. Marshall plans to follow the NSSM 69 study with a
similar examination of the NSSM on mutual balanced forces reduc':ion
(MPFR) and then with a study relating to a NSSM not yet selected
but which will be basically political in nature.
5. After completion of the` appraisal of the intelligence
response to the India/Pakistan crisis of 1971, Mr. Marshall proposes
to very briefly examine several of the other crisis situations
which were suggested for review by in his response to the
request of the Chairman, NSCIC Working Group, for an expression
of departmental needs. list included the Egyptian-
Israeli Cease-Fire, the Lamson 7 situation, the Panamanian ship
seizure and the Jordanian aircraft hijacking.
6. Mr. Marshall expressed dissatisfaction with the DDI report
on economic intelligence on the grounds he did not consider it
responsive to the needs of the NSCIC Working Group. He felt the
report confined itself too much to what OER is doing and did nct
describe what else is underway in other agencies and how well the
needs of top level officials are being met. He is arranc;iMg ft
PWO
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a conference between economic intelligence specialists from CIA,
State and Defense and Mr. Hormatz who handles economic matters for
Dr. Kissinger's staff.
7. Mr. Marshall also has arran ed a meeting at 0930 hours on
23 March between Hal Sonnenfeldt and of the NSC Staff
and senior intelligence analysts in the ovie field. Mr. Sonnenfeldt
is scheduled to describe his needs for intelligence concerning the USSR.
8. Mr. Marshall agreed to provide me with memoranda on any
criticism of intelligence products or other matters of. interest to
the PRG which arise from conferences of this nature.
9. Mr. Marshall described developments concerning the SS-9
study which he requested DDI prepare. He indicated that reactions
represent a mixed picture with some critics indicating the study
was a good try but missed the objectives. The problem is how to gc
from here on this type of analysis. Mr. Marshall has sent copies
to Dr. Cline, Admiral Gaylor, General Graham of DIA, and others for
review, and he said the DDI had agreed to ask these men to designate
senior analysts who would attempt a similar critique on the SS-9 study.
A main point of the critique will be to discuss whether, given what.
was tried, it would be feasible to make another attempt and what type
the new study would be. One of the problems involved in the
SS-9 study may have been the lack of an institutional memory in that
material on So * ocket forces obtained prior to the mid-60s was
not called up, as through the personal memory of participants
in the study or the data retrieval systems. The DDI is attempting
to dig out these old materials so that Mr. Marshall can examine
them.
10. Much of our discussion centered around how the PRG could get
itself involved in determining whether and to what extent there is
a need for types of productsediffer.ent from those now being produced.
Mr. Marshall thinks it might be profitable to experiment with the
assembly of panels of experts who would review products in particular
fields and be charged with discussing new lines of analysis and
recommending possible new approaches. We decided to defer decision
on this until we see how well the seminar on the SS-9 study comes
out and also how profitable the discussion of the intelligence input
to NSSM 69 is. I told Mr. Marshall I would like to attend both the
SS-9 and the NSSM 69 seminars, not as an expert on either study but
from the standpoint of assessing how suitable these techniques are for
product improvement.
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11. I indicated to Mr. Marshall that Kenneth Dam of OIB had
raised the matter of his being briefed on the PRG program. Mr.
Marshall thought this would be a very good idea and indicated that
he attempted to keep Mr. Dam generally aware of his activities,
particularly as they relate to resources.
12. One final problem Mr. Marshall raised was how one might
study the overload situation in the intelligence community. He 13
interested in measures which. could assess analysts' workloads as .a
means of providing basis for setting priorities for the use of
production time. He noted that production shops are considered a
free good by clients and means of deciding on trade-offs might
profitably be examined.
13. I described current studies of the PRG program.
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Ch ef, PRG/IC
Distribution:
prig -
1-
1 - PRG staff
1 - 0 chrono
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