STUDY ON 'THE ADEQUACY OF CURRENT ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY POLICY (DEFENSE AND ARMS CONTROL)' FOR THE COMMISSION ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE GOVERNMENT FOR THE CONDUCT OF FOREIGN POLICY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01133A001000050012-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2003
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: July 22, 1974
• Content Type: MEMO

vcrv t U14LJtrt StUKt 1 AKY OF STATE
FOR MANAGEMENT
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04:174
July 22,. 1974
MEMORANDUM
To: T - Mr. Maw
C - Mr. Sonnenfeldt
S/P - Mr. Lord
INR - Mr. Hyland
S/AJ - Ambassador Johnson
PM - Mr. Vest
S/S - Mr. Springsteen
Subject: Study on "The Adequacy of Current Organization
for Security Policy (Defense and Arms Control)"
for The Commission on the Organization of the
Government for the Conduct of Forei n Polic?
Introduction and General Back round
Under cc:.tract from the Coiirniission on the O_
of the Government for the. Conduct of Foreign Policy,-zat1.,;
Professor Graham T. Allison, of Harvard University, is
leading a major study on the adequacy of current organi-
zation for the conduct of policy in the Defense and 'A rm
Control Area. He will be assisted by a number of other
scholars, listed below. The objectives of the project
also include assessing performance, and developing spe-
cific changes in the current organizational arrangements
that would provide a more effective..system for the formu-
lation and implementation of foreign policy with respect
to defense and arms control matters. The results of this
study, together with a number of others also being under-
taken for the Commission, will be used to provide back-
ground for the Commission's recommendations.
Timing and Format
This topic will be pursued through a number of indi-
vidual case studies of specific decisions and projects,
conducted by associates of Professor Allison. While a
complete list of individuals and topics has not been set,
it will include the following, with additional researchers
and topics to be added later:
State Dept. review completed
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A. "The Making of Defense Budgets." Professor John
P. Crecine, with others possibly to be added.
B. Weapons Acquisition.
1. "The Size and Mix of U.S. Strategic Forces
in the 19.60's." Professor Allison (has
full clearance from DOD to TS), and Frederic
A. Morris.
2. "MIRV." Allison, and possibly one other
to be added.
3. "ABM." Morris, and possibly one other.
4. "Trident." John Steinbruner (has full
clearance from DOD to TS).
Note: Cases in this category seem least likely
to require State Department consultation,
but some may be desirable. One or two
additional cases may also be added.
C. Formulating Strategic Doctrine: "Nuclear Op--
tions." Professor Henry S. Rowen,.Stanford
Business School (has full clearance from DOD
through TS).
D. Managing Alliances
1. "Troops and Costs: Offset Agreements, 1966,
1967, 1969." Gregory F. Treverton.
2. "The Production of Weapons Jointly (Skybolt)."
Richard_Neustadt (has full clearance through
TS from DOD), Jay"Philip Urwitz.
3. "The Production of Weapons Jointly (MLF)."
Neustadt and Steinbruner.
4. "Base Agreements: Okinawa, 1967, 1969."
Investigator to be added.
5. "Security Assistance (Aid and Sales): Taiwan.
Henry B. Miller
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%of
6. "Commitments and Expectations." Thailand
1961, 1970." Earnest May (has full clear-
ance from DOD through TS).
E. "Establishing Arms Control Positions: SALT."
1. "SALT: 1968, 1969-72, 1972-74." Burton E.
Rosenthal.
2. "CBW: 1967, 1969." Investigator to be
added.
F. Others.
1. "Reorganizing Decision Making: Strengthen-
ing Unified Commands." Investigator to be
added.
2. Several other cases to be added later.
While this project will focus most intensively on
units of the government other, than the Department of
State, it iz evcrtheless likely that a number of the
investigators .wi.1.1 desire to conduct interviews with
officers of the Department. A name check has been com-
pleted by the Office of Security for researchers listed
on the basis of which they may consult documents within
the State Department and discuss matters through SECRET,
on a not for. attribution or citation basis. Certain re-
searchers already possessing full clearances through TOP
SECRET are so indicated.
Contacts
General information on the project and the Commission
can be obtained from Peter L. Szanton, Research Director,
or William I. Bacchus, Associate Research Director, both
at 254-9850. John Treat of the Commission Staff is acting
as local coordinator for the research project and will .be
largely responsible for making necessary arrangements.
He can also be reached at 254-9850.
William *J. Galloway
Executive Assistant
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SUBJECT: Study on "The Adequacy of Current Organization:
Interaction of U.S. and Foreign Economies,"
undertaken for the Commission on the Organization
of the Government for the Conduct of Foreign Policy
Introduction and General Description
The Commission on the Organization of the Government
for the Conduct of Foreign Policy has contracted with
Mr..Edward.K. Hamilton, President, Griffenhagen-Kroeger, Inc.,
public management consultants, to lead a major study on the
adequacy of current organization for the conduct of policy
in the Economic area. Mi'. Hamilton will be assisted by
number of consultants, all employees of Griffenhagen-Kroeger,
as listed below. The objectives of the project also include
assessing performance, and developing specific changes in
the current organizational arrangements that would provide
a more effective system for the formulation and implementation
of foreign policy with respect to, economic matters. The
results of this study, together with a number of others also
being undertaken for the Commission, will be used to provide
background for the Commission's recommendations.
Timing and Format
This topic will be pursued through a number of individual
case studies of specific decisions and projects, conducted by
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 associates of Mr. Hamilton. The current list of topics
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and researchers is as follows:
into trade with the Soviet Union, possibly the
1967 proposal for an East-West trade bill,
Edward Skloot.
The imposition of import quotas on Canadian oil,
.(1970), Katheryn Voight.
The suspension of all import quotas on oil (1973),
Katheryn Voight and Linda S. Graebner.
Two key decisions dealing with international
1. The decision to terminate AID. development lending
to India (1971),Joan Hochman.
2. The suspension of AID's "additionality" rule
(1969), William Seelbach.
3. The dollar devaluations of 1971 and 1973,
Elizabeth Stabler.
4. One decision dealing with the effort to enter
6.
monetary reform: (a) the decision to favor the
creation of a man-made reserve assist (1965);
and (b) the announcement of post SDR-U.S. objectives
8.
(1972).
The development of the U.S. position during the
textile dispute with Japan (1970-'71), Peter
Henschel.
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9. The evolving role of the President's Special
Trade Representative'. Anne Rightor-Thornton.
10. Two domestic tax decisions with substantial
implications for foreign economic policy;
(a) President Johnson's decision not to propose
a tax increase in 1966; and
(b) President Nixon's decision to announce
"new economic policy" in 1971.
While this project will, focus most intensively on
units of the government other than the Department of State,
it is nevertheless likely that a number of investigatcrs
will desire to conduct interviews with officers of the
Department. A name check has been completed by the Office
of Secretary for the researchers listed, on the basis of
which they may consult documents within the State Depart-
ment and discuss matters through SECRET, on a not'for
attribution or citation basis.
Contacts: .
General information on the project and the Commission
can be obtained from--Peter L. Szanton, Research Director,
or William I. Bacchus, Associate Research Director, both
at 254-9850. Elizabeth Stabler of this project's staff,
is acting as local coordinator for the research project
and can be reached at 232-3236.
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Title of Proposed Study: Minimizinq "Irrationality"
in Foreign Polcy-making
Introduction
Alexander L. George proposes to undertake for the
Comm=ission on the Organization of the Government for the
Conduct of For i.cm Policy a ,study on minimizing "irrat_Conalitytt
in foreign policy making.
I. Objectives
The proposed study will follow closely the general
purpose and scope of Study II.C, "Minimizing Irrationality,"
which was briefly described on page 13 of "The Commission's
Studies Program" (3/21/74). To this end four interrelated
objectives are set forth for the proposed study, as follows:
A; Identify and Differentiate Sources of "Irrational.-;-VII
i"'lrrati.nn 0 itJ," - i s s ~.-ter;m Loose' y~ applied to a variety
`
of quiff-- different behavioral phenomena. The proposed study
will avoid a narrow psychiatric approach to this problem.
Instead, it will draw more broadly upon relevant work in
political, behavioral, and psychological sciences in order
to identify the variety of situational factors and behavioral
patterns that can interfere with optimal procedures of
search, evaluation, and choice in policy-making.
Impediments to Irrationality" in policy-making can emerge
(a) from certain dynamics of individual behavior; (b) from
dynamics of small group behavior that affect the performance
ofpolicy-making tasks by advisers and staff personnel; and
(c) from organizational and bureaucratic behavior in complex
organizations such as the Executive Branch. Impediments to
rationality often arise from these three sources during the
course of efforts to cope with stressful experiences encoun-
tered in decision-making and policy implementation.
The study will draw together in a detailed, systematic
way available knowledge regarding the variety of maladaptive
ways with which individuals, small groups, and organizations
often attempt to cope with different kinds of stress. The
following sources of maladaDtive adjustments to stress will
be examined:
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(1) Maladaptive responses to "cognitive stress" and
"value stress" generated by the intellectual diffi-
culty of dealing with the w,w,ell-known limits on the
ability to evaluate the expected consequences of
policy alternatives in order to decide which course
of action is "best";
(2) Maladaptive ways of coping with stress generated
in international crises and when making fundamental
foreign policy choices in non-crisis situations by
the perception of major threats to important national
(and personal) values;
(3) Maladaptive adjustments to stress generated by organi-
zational and role conflicts experienced by individuals
occupying key points in the policy-making system;
(4) Maladaptive ways of coping with the psychological
and physiological effects of fatigue;
(5) Maladaptive responses to "secrecy" on the part of
those who do and do not have access to highly classi-
fied information (including the related question of
Lhe ciuve.use imn +.ct differential access can nave on
the working -1ationsfii, ~f those participating in
the policy-making system),
Impact on Policy-making Tasks
While knowledge of the sources of possible impediments to
rational policy-making is of some value, it cannot easily be
utilized to prevent the occurrence of potentially disruptive
individual, small group, or organizational dynamics. Rather, the
emphasis must be on neutralizing, or compensating for, the adverse
impact various sources of "irrationality" can have upon policy-
making. Accordingly, the proposed study will attempt to indicate
in some detail how different kinds of impediments to "rationality"
manifest themselves at what points in the search for effective
policies and their implementation.
The study will draw together available knowledge of this kind
with the expectation (1) that it will serve to sensitize parti-
cipants in policy-making to the problem, thereby improving their
ability to recognize in a timely fashion the intrusion of disrup-
tive factors on policy-making tasks, and (2) that it will help
those who specialize in developing and managing policy-making
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systems to devise strategies for timely and appropriate
"interventions" to prevent such factors from having a damaging
effect on the search for effective policies and decisions.
C. Implications for Nbnitoring and Managing the Policy-
rnaking Process
Having identified the types of "malfunctions" a policy-making
system can suffer via intrusion of different kinds of "irrationalities'
the study will indicate ways in which the tendencies toward such
intrusions might be countered. Such recommendations will err_p hasize
means of monitoring the policy-ir king process in order to obtain
timely identification of emergent malfunctions and to 'undertake
appropriate corrective or countervailing actions. These critical
role tasks must be infused into the definition of roles to per-
formed by certain participants in the policy ,making system.
Thus the study will focus host closely on minimization of
"irrationality" through close monitoring and effective r racemant
of the day-to-day workings of the policy-making systemm. This is in
sharp contrast to the traditional practice of relying upon periodical
structural reorganization of the policy-making system whenever
sufficient dissatisfaction with its performance has acctrnulatE,d.
The reco.me,menu.ation of certain structural chanoe i is not precluded,
however.
D. Variation in Executive Operating Styles
The study will take into account that each executive is likely
to have a somewhat different notion as to the kind. of policy-r-na.king
system and procedures he wishes to create around himself, feels
comfortable with, and can utilize. This observation has b-~co e
part of the conventional wisdom in recent years, but its full im-
plications for the design and management of policy-making systems
remains to be determined. This objective is of importance not
only for Study II.C but possibly in other studies undertaken by
the Co-,mission as well.
It is questionable wisdom to try (as specialists in organi-
zation and public administration have advocated in the past) to
impose a single standardized model of policy-making on each execu-
tive. The proposed study, it will be noted, is entirely consistent
in this respect with the observation an page 4 of the Ccw i.ssion's
Studies Program to the effect that organizations "should be de-
signed to fit the operating styles of their key individuals, and
not vice versa."
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Accordingly, the proposed study will move in the direction
of developing somewhat different models of policy-making that
are appropriate to the distinctive management "styles" of
different executives.
Ili. Methodolog/Aproach
A large body of relevant empirical and theoretical work -in
political, behavioral, and psychological sciences will be
screened and evaluated from the standpoint of the objectives
of the study. Several detailed appraisals of this kind have
been made -in recent years by the principal investigator and
other scholars. The proposed study will draw upon them and
supplement with additional. library research and consultation
with specialists in these several fields in order to expedite
the search for relevant up-to-date high quality material.
Where appropriate and feasible --- and in consultation with
the Commissionts research director -- the principal. investigator
will arrange to interview current and former foreign policy
officials in order to obtain additional information and judgment
bearing on t ho o jecLiveS of the study.
The principal investigator plans to draw into the study the
contribution of a number of part-time consultants. A prelim-
inary conference will be held in mid-June with some six special-
ists. to help plan the study in more detail.
The principal investigator will be responsible for request-
ing specific inputs to the study from consultants and for inte-
grating them into the final report.
III. Personnel
A relatively large number of specialists will be contacted
during the course of the study. Some will be asked for specific
inputs on a consulting basis. Decisions on this will be made
after the planning conference, and will depend of course on how
much time the persons in question have available, what they are
interested in doing, how well it will contribute to the objectives
of the study. Among those who have indicated interest in attend-
ing the mid-June planning conference and who have some available
time for possible consulting during the summer are Charles Hermann,
Ole Holsti, Robert Jervis, Richard-Smoke, and John Steinbruner.
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In addition, Graf mm Allison and Irving Janis (?) -- both
currently at the Center for Idvanced Study in the Behavioral
Sciences at Stanford will sit in on at ].east part of the
planning conference. Other specialists Who will he contacted
include Thomas Schelling, Lincoln Bloomfield, Boris Kearns,
David Hamburg, Chris Argyris, Eugene Webb, James 1,11a_rch, Richard T.
Johnson.
IV. Adntinistrative i\t?rangailents
Alexander L. George will direct the study and will be the
principal investigator. He will t-.ork virtually full time on
the study from mid-June to the end of Sep'-e_ er, and one or two
days a week as necessary thereafter until conpletion of the
final report towards the end of Decernbsr.
The contract will be administered by Stanford University.
V. Finished Product
Tice fiilal remrr will ref 1 ect tht r r_
~1 OAJ j eC ~_.]. V i?fi of 11-1o ass e r I ev -a 4 .~ and .! ? ...1
a,+ clz. ct.~- th e:. ant r .` ~-~als anCi' a:indings in considerable
detail.- The report will include a general statement of conclusions.
and recommendations of approximately 1.0-20 pages. The report as
a whole can be expected to be well over 100 pages.
VI. Schedule
a. Final project outline -- July 15
b. detailed progress report -- August 15
c. a substantial review draft -- October 15
d. final report -- December 20.
[This schedule is tentative and permits of some adjustments.)
VII. Budget
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 4/16/74 COG/ FP D3a
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Summa
RESEARCH PROGRAM
Phase I Studies
The Utility and Limits of an organizational Approach: Given
that organizational patterns necessarily vary with differing
key personalities and differing policy concerns, what kinds
and degrees of organizational change can the Commission
propose in the absence of knowledcja about either future
U.S. political leadership or of the dominant policy concerns
of the near future?
The Problems Commonly Cited: What are the major criticisms
commonly made about the conduct of foreign policy,in parti-
cular substantive areas (e.g., economic, cultural); functions
(planning, implementation, etc.), resources (budgets,
personnel); and other categories?
The Future Enyirviiau(2iii.:.. What are the major alternative future
environments which current developments may foreshadow,
in which U.S. foreign policy will operate over the next
deg de; what policy problems may prove paramount, and what
.fusions, resources, and organizational arrangements may
be most severely taxed in such circumstances?
Lessons of Prior Studies: What have been the issues
addressed, the recommendations made, and the factors which
have determined the impact and degree of success of each
of the major studies of foreign affairs organization since
1945?
Characteristics of an Effective Foreign Policy System:
What. characteristics should any effective system for the
conduct of the nation?s foreign policy possess?
Alternative Models of Organization: What alternative patterns
of both Executive and Legislative Branch organization for
the conduct. of foreign policy seem plausible, and what are the
likely relationships between various combinations of Executive
and Congressional models?
Comparable Patterns of Other Governments: What aspects of
organization for the conduct of foreign policy in other
nations can provide lessons applicable to U.S. conditions?
(This study will be selective in the features of the
practice of: other countries which it examines.)
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RESEARCH PR.OG
Phase II Studies
The Effectiveness of Organizational Change: What makes
organizational change effective in meeting intended purposes,
as suggested by examination of a number of prior attempts at
.such change in the foreign affairs area of the U.S. Govern-
ment?
Adequacy of Current organization: How effective has current
organization for policymaking been in recent administrations
as suggested by a review of a large number of recent deci-
sions and actions in each of the following areas:
1. The Interaction of U.S. and Foreign Economies: How well
does the U.S. Government succeed in conducting policy
which reflects both domestic necessities and the
realities of the international economic system?
2. National Security Issue.s.: How well do we balance foreign
policy implications, economic and budgetary impact, and
national security requirements, in decisionmaking on
defense-related topics?
3. Coordination in Complex Settings: How adequate are
current U.S. Government organizational forms to insure
coordination where many activities of high importance
are conducted simultaneously? (South Asia has been
tentatively selected as the geographic focus for this
.study.)
4. Multilateral and Global Issues: How well organized is
the U.S. Government to develop and conduct policy
dealing with that group of increasingly prominent issues
which tend to be global in nature, contain both domestic
and international implications, cross traditional juris-
dictional lines, and involve important technical compo-
nents (e.g., multinational corporations, seabed policy,
environment, population, food)?
Toward Greater Rationality: What organizational steps can
be taken to minimize vulnerability of officials: to political,
bureaucratic, organizational, physiological, and psyc.hologi-
cal pressures in both crisis and- routine situations?
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onduct of Routine Rel t'
ons. now adequate are current
ganizatznal arrangements to manage continuing and
reasonably routine relations, which nevertheless can
substantially shape U.S. foreign relations? .(Latin America
has been tentatively selected as a geographic focus for
this study.)
Resources for roreign Affairs: How well is the
government organized for identifying and providing the
resources needed to carry out the nation's foreign policy
effectively?
1. Perscr;nel: What types of personnel are needed for the
effective conduct of foreign affairs, and what organi-
zational and procedural steps should be taken to
improve foreign affairs personnel systems?
2. Budgets and Resource Management: What organizational
and procedural steps should be taken to improve the
budget processes related to foreign affairs, and to
mesh policyrnaking and resource utilization more
effectively?
OTHER STUDIES/PROBLEMS
Confidentiality and Security Classification: What'organiza-
tional anal procedural steps can be taken to limit classifi-
cation of imformation relating to the conduct of foreign
policy to the minimum clearly required by the needs of
national security?
Public Opinion and Public Information: What are the responsi-
bilities of the Executive Branch to inform the American people
about the conduct of foreign affairs, and to assure -- other
than through the Congress -- that actions taken are broadly
consistent with the public sense of.the nature of U.S.
interests and the means legitimate to advance those interests;
and what organizational steps are necessary to fulfill these
responsibilities?
Intelligence: What organizational and procedural steps should
be taken to improve intelligence support for the conduct of
foreign affairs,and what level of effort is required to
provide adequate support?
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Covert Political Action: Should the U.S. have a capability
for covert political action overseas,and if so, under what
safeguards and organizational responsibility?
Overseas Establishments: How can U.S. representatives abroad
and to multilateral organizations be most effectively
organized and controlled?
Cultural Affairs Programs: What should be done with respect
t:o reanalysis of basic concepts, organizational modification
classification of jurisidictions and coordination mechanisms,
and improvement of procedures to make cultural affairs
programs more effective?
. Foreign Information Programs: What should be done with respect
to reanalysis of basic concepts, organizational modification,
clarification of jurisdictions and coordination mechanisms,
and improvement of procedures to make foreign information
programs more effective?
Foreign Assistance Programs (Development and Security): What
steps are necessary with respect to basic concepts, organi-
zation, jurisdicu.L,n., -oordination wechanisms an( procedures
to make both developmental and security assistance programs
more effective?
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TAB
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