REVIEW OF DECISION (A SOVIET VIEW)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01133A001100010001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 10, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 21, 1975
• Content Type: MF

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IC 75-2556
21 October 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: General Wilson
SUBJECT: Review of Decision (A Soviet View)
REFERENCE: V. V. Druzhinin and D. S. Kontorov Decision
Making and Automation: Concept, Algorit m,
Decision (A Soviet View), Moscow, 1972.
Translated and published by the USAF as
No. 6 in the series Soviet Military
Thought. GPO Stock Number 037- 0-0044
1. This book is by far the best synthesis I have ever
read of the great variety of disciplines that are encompassed
in the decision process. As General of the Army S. M.
Shtemenko points out in his introduction "the works in which
the various aspects of this problem [decision], namely mili-
tary, social, technical, psychological, etc., are synthesized,
are very few." In suggesting this book to others I have
asked them to tell me of any comparable synthesis in any
book produced in.the western world.
2. The "etc." in the above quotation can be expanded
to include modes of rational thought processes, information
theory, network analysis, pattern recognition, human bit
rate limitations, game theory, communication media analysis,
computer applications, natural language vs. computer language,
and many other disciplines which have been woven into a
coherent presentation.
3. The book borrows (acknowledged) from much work done
in the West but there are also references to many experiments
and ideas produced in the USSR. Of course there is a nod to
Marx, Lenin and Engels, the standard price of admission to
Soviet publishing houses. Even so some of the quotes must
have been done with tongue in cheek, for example, the Engels
quote starting'Chapter II on computer systems: "...when the
waves of industrial. revolution rage... courageous heads are
needed."
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4. The book is full of historical and literary examples
to sustain the point of discussion. The characters in the
American novel Seven Days in May by Knebel and Bailey are
used effectively to illustrate the various modes of human
thought processes. (pp.60-78)
5. T thought the treatment of the following subjects
particularly well done:
a. Types of organizational structures (pp.
80-86)
b. Operational decision program (p. 116) (You
will note how closely this tracks with the classic
five paragraph "Estimate of the Situation" echoing
our own military education.
c. The human limitations of perception and
thinking (pp. 133-134)
d. Results of experiments in structures (pp.
144-152)
e. Human memory capacity (pp. 155-158)
f. Reflection (opponent interacted), communica-
tion problems, and modes of presentation (pp. 162-163)
g. Language, natural and formal (pp. 173-174)
h. Problems of translation (pp. 175-176)
i. Set theory and topology (pp. 186-190)
j. Dynamic display of information (pp. 261-266)
k. Probability statements (not asking "what
does the enemy intend to do" but rather "what is the
possibility that ...." (p. 283)
6. There are some interesting philosophical conflicts
within the book. On page 152 there is a strong rn.arxist
pitch. "The dialectical unity of collective problem solving
for one man decision making is a principle." However the
book ends (p. 296) on a different note of group thinking
"thanks to automation."
7. According to the American Editor's Forward "The
Soviets intend that it [the book] be read by commanders and
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staff officers." If this is carried out and the principles
put into practice I fear that the Soviet national nervous
system will be much superior to ours. That is asserting
quite a bit, but I think even a casual glance at the book
(which, I understand, you have ordered) will project many
of the same misgivings I have.
cc: I
7
Distribution:
Orig Gen Wilson
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IC Registry
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