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December 12, 2016
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December 8, 2000
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PDF icon CIA-RDP80R01443R000100260007-7.pdf232.31 KB
Approved For Release 2001/ Outline: Events in Germany and their implications I. The analysis of East German uprisings .40 25X1A6a while not fi , is valuable. A. It is based on info ation. available as of 2 July II. East Zone uprising began spontaneously on 16 June A. It was launched on a small scale by working class 1. Regime winked at early demonstration B. Uprising grew as other segments of population joined workers III. Early intervention by E. German police was ineffective A. Soviets interceded after quickly deciding that situation was getting out of hand 1. This indicated distrust of effectiveness of People's Police IV, Potentially revolutionary situation developed, based on: A, Widespread hatred of regime and its organs Approved For Release 200 MWW 3R000100260007-7 Approved For Release 2001/0 B. Ten. percent increase in production norms - actually only the last straw C. Drastically reduced standard of living 1. Food shortage 2. Chronic lack of consumer goods D. Conciliatory course announced by SED Politburo on 9 June afforded respite to get uprising under way 1. Suggested reprisals would not be too severe E. SED leadership appeared confused. V. Large scale uprisings were doubtless spontaneous; local demonstrations showed signs of organization A. Local indications suggested good mass discipline plus ad hoc experienced leadership B, Local demonstrations followed similar pattern 1, Spreading of news of East Berlin strike 2. Declaration of workers' solidarity 3, Strikes 4, Marches against SED strongholds Approved For Release 200 Approved For Relea 01443R000100260007-7 C. Shop stewards and revolutionary tradition of German trade union movement played vital role in leadership 1. "New" Soviet methods had affronted pride of German worker VI. East German. developments demonstrate possibility of revolt from below even in communist police state A. Kremlin must forestall similar development in Satellites B. Soviet propaganda consequently alleges riots engineered from outside C. "Uprising from below" theme useful in psychological warfare 1. SED authority based on Soviet bayonets 2. SED an instrument for repressing workers 3. Soviet troops, "protectors of workers," used against them 4. Communism, repressing revolution, is really reactionary Approved For Release 2001jCO8i `v. P8 43R000100260007-7 Approved For Release VII. Riots have created problems of great magnitude for the USSR A. Kremlin must now question value of East Germany as a base for an offensive against Western Europe 1. Lines of communication could not be protected by Germans in event of major war B. New economic program of SED could terminate in reduction of Soviet control over East Zone populace C. Demonstrated hostility of East Germans reduces usefulness of East Germany as a base for subverting West Germany 1. Appeal of communism to West Germans has vanished D. Potency of unity campaign has diminished E. The SED cannot now muster mass popular support 1. Eventually may be reduced to cadre organization . Reports of coming ascendancy of bourgeois parties at this stage are, however, wishful and premature. - 4 - Approved For Release 11.1, 438000100260007-7 Approved For Releas 443R000100260007-7 a) They may, nevertheless, be brought more to the fore 3, Attempts to broaden the popular base of the SED are likely F. Ulbricht's future position is uncertain 1. It appears, however, that his continued influence is assured VIII, The Kremlin, it would seem must now: A. Maintain the SED in power; there is no other logical choice 1. No major change expected in SED conciliatory tactics B, Make every effort to restore order before any four power conference is proposed C. Maintain covert nucleus of communist control within East German bourgeois parties 1. This would be done in any case, but would prepare Approved For Release 200 _ "~ 000100260007-7 Approved For Release 2QQ / for remote contingency of settlement on Western terms 2. Long range prospects for success of this maneuver are not good IX. This analysis covers immediate German situation; broader implications exist A. Can an alien, and hostile, people be held by force alone? B. How far can. concessions go, as an alternative, without sacrifice of control's This is the dilemma X. The current situation in the Eastern European Satellites A. Press reports of large scale demonstrations in Poland are denied by US officials in Warsaw. 1. Trips through northern, southwestern, and central Poland late in June disclosed no evidence of demonstrations or heightened security B. Reports of strikes and demonstrations in other Satellites are unconfirmed and probably untrue Approved For Release 2 s _ 000100260007-7 Approved For Release 2 R000100260007-7 1. Czech security police alert of 18 June was lifted 24 hours later, C. The Hungarian, Albania, and Rumanian regimes announced concessions following the East German riots Timing may have been influenced by German events; no other apparent connection 2. Hungarian government and party reorganization in line with Kremlin's new conciliatory policy 13, Reorganization of Hungarian regime apparently ends Rakosits one-man rule 1. Resembles reorganization in USSR 2. Rakosi retains principal Politburo and Secretariat posts, but his job as Secretary General has been abolished, and he has dropped from the government 3, Long-time communist Imre Nagy promoted to premiership 4. Former number-two man Erno Gero remains on Approved For Release R000100260007-7 Approved For Release 3R000100260007-7 Politburo and gets additional duties as First Deputy Premier and Minister of Interior 5. New regime promises: a) Slowdown in industrialization and collectivization b) Abolition of internment camps c) Rise in living standards F. Albania on 22 June cancelled peasants' agricultural debts for 1949-1952 F. Rumania has relaxed grain collection program and furnished additional foodstuffs to the people G. The Czech Government on 6 July repealed a week-old decree specifying stringent measures to combat absenteeism H. These developments may presage a softer policy through- out the Orbit, 8 'oo'{{RR A,.3R000100260007-7 Approved For Release 2001/ ?t~3rY iLi A`'g tv