THE OUTLOOK FOR COMPLETING RATIFICATION OF THE EDC TREATY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000100350002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 24, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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NSC BRIEFING
24 September 1953
THE OUTLOOK FOR COMPLETING RATIFICATION
OF THE EDC TREATY
Summary of the Present Situation
France
1.,.,T French situation, which looks
markedl'3r -fetter than four weeks ago,
continues'to be-,the crux of the whole
problem.
I will return to this in ''moment.
B. West Germany
1. Both houses of parliament ratified
last spring.
2. Constitutional Court now deliberating
the legality of
b~tti" Wes.
treaties, but generally expected to
follow the 6 September election re-
turns.
3. If not, Adenauer can probably muster
(EDC)
'"State Department review completed.
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a two-thirds majority for the neces-
sary modifications of the constitution..
C. Netherlands
1. Lower house ratified by two-thirds
majority in July.
2. Upper house approval is generally
expected, possibly by the end of the
year.
D. Belgium
1. Final approval not considered in
doubt and government believes this
may be attained in 1953.
E. Luxembourg
1. Approval expected to follow Belgium's.
F. Italy
1. The one country where prospects now
look actually worse than they did last
spring, when De Gasperi promised to
push the treaty through parliament
this year.
(EDC) .
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2. Several reasons for this decline in
ratification prospects:
a. De Ga.speri's poor showing in
the June elections was widely
attributed to his previous close
cooperation on US-sponsored
policies.
b. The present Pella government is
only a provisional one
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c. Trieste has become an even more
burning issue with Italian
public.
(1) Pella told Ambassador
Luce on 3 September that
a favorable solution was
now a precondition for
Italian EDC ratification.
d. Hence a date for EDC debate is
(EDC)
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not even being discussed at
this time.
e. But Italy seems to recognize
that European integration is to
its long-term interest, economi-
cally and defense-wise; it is
already a member of the Coal-
Steel Community.
f. Hence, Italy not likely to be a
hold out once the other parti-
cipating countries have all
ratified.
(EDC)
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The More Critical Problem in France
A. German elections of 6 September a turning
point
1. The shift of French government policy
in the second half of September was
striking.
B. Before German elections, a black picture
1. The Laniel government was committed
to no schedule on EDC ratification.
2. The enemies of EDC were organizing an
aggressive opposition.
3. France and Germany were deadlocked on
the Saar.
C. Change of atmosphere after 6 September
1. On 9 September, Under Secretary of
State Maurice Schumann told Ambassa-
dor Dillon with enthusiasm--
The elections had provided "a much
needed shock for French public
opinion," and,
(EDC)
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On 15 September Bidault assured
Dillon that, given a Saar settlement--
He was now convinced France would
ratify EDC before the end of the
year.
3. Dillon commented:
"This position by Bidault is a
dramatic change of front. While
he has always maintained his sup-
port for EDC, he has never before
given a date for ratification."
4. On 17 September Dillon noted that
there was now
"keen competition between Laniel
and Bidault as to who can do most
to get EDC through."
5. On 26 September, Laniel announced
publicly that
He would ask Parliament to ratify
EDC as soon as outstanding differ-
ences with Germany were settled.
(EDC)'
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D. French ratification now seems to depend
on:
1. An understanding on the Saar
2. Satisfying the Socialist Party on:
a. A European Political Community
with real supranational powers
b. Close British association with
EDC
3. Avoidance of a new cabinet crisis
4. Avoidance of upsetting developments
abroad
E. To take up these points one by one--
1. Prospects for Saar settlement
a. Negotiations, which last spring
reached agreement on the prin-
ciple of "Europeanizing" the
territory, are to be resumed in
mid-October.
b. Adena.uer's electoral victory
gives him greater leeway to make
(EDC)
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concessions on the chief re-
maining stumbling block--France's
economic position in the Saar.
(1) He is already publicly
on record as realizing
France cannot give this
up entirely.
2. Problem of insuring Socialist support
a. French government needs over
300 National Assembly votes to
put EDC across there, but can
count on only about 250 from
the parties in the coalition.
(1) Several ex-Gaullist
cabinet members threaten-
ed in mid-September to
resign on the European
integration issue.
b. Government therefore looks to
the Socialist party as the most
(EDC)
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promising source of the needed
additional votes
(1) Believes that under
proper conditions it can
swing about 80 of 104 de-
puties of this party.
3. Avoidance of cabinet crisis
a. Overthrow of the Laniel govern-
ment would probably mean a pro-
longed and serious crisis.
b. There are various indications
that Laniel will stay in power
at least till mid-December, but
he faces real threats particu-
larly from the budget and labor
problems.
4. Avoidance of upsetting developments
abroad
a. EDC ratification could also be
affected by developments abroad
(EDC)
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(1) The fate of the Navarre
plan in Indochina
(2) Further Soviet initia-
tives toward an East-
West detente
b. Even if all goes well in the
National Assembly, the upper
house of Parliament could hold
up ratification as long as two
months.
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