ITALIAN ESTIMATE

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP80R01443R000200080003-0
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
3
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
December 3, 1998
Sequence Number: 
3
Case Number: 
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP80R01443R000200080003-0.pdf76.65 KB
Body: 
Approved For Release 20001- DP80R01443R000200080003-0 00 1. The Pella government, which was de- signed to serve only as a "caretaker" govern- - ment, will almost certainly do4**poe soon over Trieste or, more likely, over domestic issues. 2. A series of cabinet crises in Italy is likely because no stable governmental majority can be formed. 3. The most likely governments of the future appear to be those formed by the Christian Democrats and tolerated by the Monarchists. The general trend will be to- ward more rightist governments. 4. The Communists and their allies, the Nenni Socialists, together received about 35 percent of the June 1953 vote and control about 37 percent of the seats in the Chamber. The Communists control the largest and most powerful trade union federation. Approved For Release - DP80RO 4 8000200080003-0 Approved For Release 2000/08T30R(IA-RDP80RO1443R000200080003-0 , 5. The popular strength of the Com- munists and the Nenni Socialists will prob- ably increase in the absence of further progress toward resolving Italy's basic domestic problems, but we do not believe that the Communists could be voted into power by new elections. 6. We consider very unlikely the forma- tion of a coalition government of the Chris- tian Democrats, the Nenni Socialists, and the minor democratic parties. 7. We believe that the Italian Public Security and military forces are capable of preventing the Communists from seizing power by force. In e~iscvuw~wtq 1Z c~ke!shood of an Co~nwtige.iSQ u~e'do tito~vwt, ~e ear%Y .cceSsLo, by MI w~de~~~aR Sc)c av icy sit uation in Italy, The disintegration of the center and the deterioration of the Italian economic situa- tion may go so far as to endanger the exist- ence of democratic institutions. Approved For Release 2000/0 t.SAT; RDP80RO~Ih SPt000200080003-0 Approved For Release 2000/0$11`1 'RDP80RO1443R000200080003-0 9. We believe that, if Italy were imminently threatened by a. Communist take- over, the anti-Communists, relying on outside assistance, would probably be willing and able to use force to suppress the ex- treme left. Such a development would probz+'_'_,a ably require the establishment of a quasi- authoritarian regime. - 3 - Italy Approved For Release 2000/OSSWGR RDP80RO1443R000200080003-0