CHINESE COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES FOR DIRECT INTERVENTION IN INDOCHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000200220005-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: April 8, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

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. 8 April 1954
CHINESE COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES FOR
DIRECT INTERVENTION IN INDOCHINA
1. Re ground forces there two Chinese
armies (30,000 men each) immediately
adjacent Tonkin border. L A'AA' 7-`I~
A. 300 miles from border there
are seven more armies.
B. No movement these armies
toward Indochina in many
months.
C. No change ground strength
this area over a year.
D. Units this area not engaged
anti-guerrilla operations.
OGA review completed
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E. Estimated Chinese can support
eight armies (24Q,000 men) in
Indochina (G-2, 3 Apr 54) and
could overrun Tonkin with a force
of 50-75,000 men, together with
Viet Minh troops, against French
resistance alone.
II. Tho these units being re-equipped with
modern material, there no indication
priority over other areas.
A. Present coverage inadequate de-
termine whether supply dumps for
operational support of large
Chinese ground force been
accumulated opposite Indochina.
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III. Road network into Tonkin from China
via Langson, Caobang, Hagiang, Laokay,
and Laichau adequate support movement
of sufficient forces to overrun Tonkin.
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IV. Chinese air force has more than enough
modern aircraft take control air over
Tonkin away from the French. However,
there not much strength near Indochina
border now.
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A. Military air unit closest to
Indochina located Liuehow, 280
miles northeast of Hanoi; this
an understrength LA-11 piston
fighter division (10 aircraft
engaged basic training). This
division may be converting to
MIG-15's.
B. At Canton 500 miles from Hanoi,
there an overstrength (80 air-
craft) and combat-trained MIG-15
division.,Next closest MIG-15
unit is at Nanchang, 650 miles
northeast Indochina.
C. Closest known bomber unit is an
untested TU-2 division (radius,
500 miles) at Changsha, 500
miles northeast Indochina border.
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V. What kind air facilities do Chinese
have near border?
A. At least three airfields are
within 100 miles of Indochina
border, all with short or unim-
proved runways, now in use, but
only by civilian transports.
B. Any or all of these possibly
could be used for limited
periods both by jets and by
conventional fighters and
conventional light bombers.
C. in MIG-15 combat radius
(315 'les) of border ere
several a it al large air -
fields, esen condition of
wh' unknown.
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VI. Within past six months Chinese are
building major air base at Suichi on
Leichow peninsula (just north Hainan
Island).
A. This field's runway (planned
for 10,000 feet and 6,000 feet
complete), now capable handling
any aircraft in use by Chinese
with possible exception of TU-4
medium bombers.
B. There been no indication which
CCAF units will move Suichi,
hence no information on its
primary use.
VII. Though many reports state Viet Minh
pilots training with Chinese, this
not substantiated.
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VIII. None of airfields in Viet Minh territory
operable.
A. Without major effort at
rehabilitation, carried out in
f ace of French bombing, these
fields cannot be put condition
for use by Chinese.
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X. Chinese Navy not capable defeating
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French naval forces Tonkin Gulf.
A. Long as French naval, air forces
operating Tonkin Gulf, Chinese
attempt invade Indochina by sea
would be costly.
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B. There no evidence of junk
concentration sufficient carry
important number troops Indo-
china been built up.