WATCH COMMITTEE CONCLUSION ON THE OFFSHORE ISLAND SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000300290003-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 24, 1998
• Sequence Number: 3
• Content Type: REPORT

N
Approved For Release 2000/08/30 : CIA-RDP80RO1443R000300290003-6
WATCH COMMITTEE CONCLUSION 014 THE OFFSHORE ISLAND SITUATION
1. The Watch Committee concludes that available information provides
no Indications that the Chime Co monists intend to launch major assaults against
the major islands in be Pfau or Chinmen grays in the. irnntedisa?,-e future. Final
prepaarartions for major assaults could be carried out in perhaps Pan days, although
adequate ground forces and water4jift could be assembled In two to four days.
No observable preparations are required for assaults an several minor offshore
Islands: Wuchiu, Yipshan and small islands near the major Chinese Nationalist
positions on Matsu and the Chinmens. Such attacks might be undertaken at
any time for prestige and propaganda conssiderotioft and to test US reactions.
2. Although the longz?o'arage buiid -up in military potential in fast China
continues, available Intelli snce irtdlcatom that certain steps, some or all of
which may be essential to a successful assault an the major islands, have yet to
be Maker
- Forrward airfields in the coastal area have not been improved or occupied;
" .Prepared as tillery positions oosite the was and the Chinma s' have
not been fully occupied;
-No substantial influx of combat units into the 'Immediate cointal area
has taken place;
-_The POt supply situation is; believed to be poor and substantial move
meat of POL Into the coastal area has been detected;
-Concentrations of landing craft or vowels In the immediate coastal a eaas
have not ncctm ed; and
Recent Chinese a and Soviet *p&ganda on the offshore Islands has do
creaased sharply In volume and has been i ly routine in content.
Them have been indications, however, that one major coastal airfield (Nantaai)
Is being Improved and offensive sir units within conga are being maintained In a
normal state of readiness.
3. In view of current limitations of intelligence sources, It Is prob6ble,
but not ,certain, that the Watch C.a mmite* will be able to a tect at least some
of the final preparatory steps prior to major wits. The Watch Committee
probably could not detect Immediate preparations for assaults on individual minor
islands.
IC # 5503300I
Copy Z, of 20 copies
Approved For Release 2000/08/30 : CIA-RDP80R01443R000300290003-6