SIZE AND NATURE OF COMMUNIST ECONOMIC PENETRATION CAMPAIGN.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000400200006-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 1998
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: November 18, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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SIZE AND NATURE OF COMMUNIST ECONOMIC PENETRATION CAMPAIGN,
1. Firm intelligence about the current Sino-Soviet bloc effort
to penetrate under-developed free world countries, particularly
in Near East and Asia, reveals the following:
A. Arms have been sold and contracted for in the amount of
about $175 million and negotiations are still continuing.
B. Other projects using bloc personnel, equipment, and credits
are actively underway to the amount of over X200,000,000.,
C. Other offers, reported and considered plausible, are
of an order of magmitude of $300,000,000, Inc%c mac
J Y.r. %'a7S,c.oc, oao >G f.
II. Values and costs are known figures or estimates by highly-
qualified intelligence specialists on specific subjects.
A. The time span begins roughly in Spring 1954 and is
projected to mid-1956,
1. Bloc negotiations are often long and complicated,
Many deals were probably started before Spring 1954,
and many more could be under consideration which
have not emerged into the light of intelligence.
B. Deals already concluded, or being negotiated, are
firmest indicator of size and nature of Communist campaign.
1. Actual performance and carrying out of current
offers will be best guide to future direction and
intensity.
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NSC BRIEFING 18 NOVEMBER 1"955
THE ESTIMATED VALUE OF COMMUNIST CREDITS
TO FREE WORLD COUNTRIES
1. Estimated total value of communist credits under negotiation
or already extended to free world countries since about mid.-
1954 may reach between 400 and 700 million dollars within
the next few months,
A. Higher figure, however, will be reached only if a. con-
tract for the Aswan High Dam estimated at 275 million
is signed.
B. Contracts, including arms deals, which are known to have
been signed amount to over $200 million.
C. Additional contracts are continually being signed and
tendered bids accepted.
D. From the tenor of negotiations it is likely that a large
part of the projects currently under discussion will
soon be formalized..
II. To date India has contracted for $5,600,000 of Communist
construction products.
A. The contracts for the Panna. Diamond mine and the steel
mill, which seem certain to be signed in the very near
future, would. bring the total communist credits to India
to almost $110,000,000.
B. Ind.ia's second. five year plan, which will begin 1 April
1956, places heavy emphasis on the rapid development of
industry.
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1. In terms of Indian resources, however, plan is
overly ambitious and there have been hints that
New Delhi will request $1.5 billion in US aid.
2. In this connection Russians, Czechs a.nd East Germans
have recently sta.ted that they were interested in
participating in Indian Second Five Year Pla.n.
C. As a result of the visit of Premier Bulga.nin, Party
secretary Khrushchev, and to a. lesser extent the visits
of Czech Trade Minister Dvorak and East German Trade
Minister Rau, it is expected that a number of the In-
d.ustria.1 projects now under negotiation by the commu-
nists might soon be formalized.
III. Bloc dealings with Afghanistan, while smaller in size, a.l-
rea.dy have a. well-established pattern and are likely to ex-
pand as a result of recently intensified bitterness between
Afghanistan and Western-supported. Pakistan.
A. Their attractiveness lies in fact they include arms and
extension of credits for development purposes at low
interest repayable in Afghan exports.
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18 November 1955
EXPLANATORY NOTE FOR THE DIRECTOR
The attached listing of the total value of communist
construction credits in the free world tends to err on the
conservative side, While all known signed contracts are in-
cluded, the listing of offers generally includes only those
for which negotiations are either well along or appear likely
to be finalized,
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INDIA
1. Signed contracts including projects now under construction:
USSR ---- Cement Plant
$2,000,000
est.
Czech --- Suspension Bridge
1,000,000
est.
Czech --- Thermal Plant
600,000
est.
Czech.--- Cement Plant
2,000,000
est.
2. Offers
$ ,
000
USSR ---- Diamond Min. Equipment
$7,000,000
USSR ---- Coal Washing Plant
2,000,000
est.
USSR ---- Steel Mill
95,000,000
USSR ---- Cotton Spinning Factory
1,000,000
est.
USSR ---- Brick Plant
USSR ---- Manganese Ore Dressing
100,000
est.
Plant
150,000
est.
Czech --- Camera Factory
250,000
est.
Czech --- Coking Plant
13,000,000
Czech. ---.Sugar Plant
650,000
est.
Hungary - Wire Plant
50,000
est.
Hungary - Cement Plant
2,000,000
est.
DDR------ Cement Plant
2,000,000
est.
DDR ----- Chemical Plant
500,000
est.
DDR ----- Sugar Plant
350,000
est.
12 ,0,000
ESTIMATED TOTAL INDIA ---$129,650,000
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AFGHANISTAN
1.
Arms deal (est.)
$ 300000000
2.
Credits signed to date:
USSR ---- $6,800,000
Czech --.-? 5, 000, 000
$ 11,800,000
Projects firmed under above credits are:
USSR ----? 500,000 gallon gasoline
storage tank
USSR ---- 2-70,000 and 2-120,000
gallon tanks
USSR ---- silos, flour mill, bakery
USSR --~?-- road-building, street-
$ 600#000
600,000 est.
3$00,000
paving
2,100,000
Czech --- cement plant
1,500,000
Czech remaining credit which may
be allocated to glass
factory, cannery, etc.
3,500,000
3. Offers
gasoline pipeline 700,000 est.
4. Additional reported Czech credit $10,000,000 plus reported
offer of $5,000,000 more.
TOTAL AFGHAN -- $14,800,000
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1, 01 tl. i z .
Arms deal (est.)
Signed contracts including projects
now under construction:
USSR
USSR ----
USSR ----
Czech ---
Czech ---
Czech ---
Hungary -
DDR -----
Cement Factory
Fertilizer Plant
Butane Gas Plant
Shoe Factory
Swing Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Transformer-distributor
Station
$160,000,000
$2,000,000 est.
5,000,000 est.
100,000 est.
100,000 est.
250,000 est.
95,000
3,200,000
250,000 est.
$ 1029-952000
3, Offers:
USSR ---- Aswan High Dam $275,000,000 est.
Czech --- Generators 1,200,000 est.
*27622002OU0
ESTIMATED TOTAL EGYPT -- $447,195,000
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1.
Arms deal -- initial Czech
contract
Approx 75 T-34 tanks
&)
spare parts.
)
Ammunition
)
$ 5,900,000
2.
Offers
Poland -- 500 km railroad
$65,000,000 est.
Bulgaria- Hydro turbine & gen-
erator
250,000 est.
Hungary - Cement Plant
2,000,000 est.
Hungary - Power Plant
670,000 est.
$67192a,000
ESTIMATED TOTAL SYRIA -- $73,820,000
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INDONESIA
1, Signed contract including project now
under construction:
East Germany --- Sugar Factory $13.,000"000
Czechoslovakia - Radio Factory 600,000 est.
Czechoslovakia - Pharmaceutical Plant 3,000,000 est.
16,600,000
2. Offers:
Rumania ------- Cement Mill 5,000,000
Hungary ------- Electric Power Plants 1,000,000 est.
,000,000
ESTIMATED TOTAL INDONESIA $22,600,000
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TURKEY
USSR ---- Wheat Mill
$ 20,000
est.
USSR Macaroni Factory
22,500
USSR ---- Brick Factory
1,600,000
est.
Czech --- Thread Factory
1,200,000
est.
DDR ----- Electric Materials Plant
136,000
DDR ----- Spinning Mill Equipment
47,000
Hungary - Power Plant
150,000
est.
$3,1752500
ESTIMATED TOTAL TURKEY -- $3,175,500
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1. No known signed contracts,.
2, Offers:
East Germany --- Cement Plant $1,000,000
Czechoslovakia - Porcelain Factory) 1000,000 est.
Czechoslovakia Crystal Factory )
Czechoslovakia - Glass Factory )
Hungary -------- Cement Plant 1 000 000 est.
*3100010
ESTIMATED TOTAL LEBANON $3,000#000
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1. Offers :
East Germany Cement Factory
$2,500,000 est.
East Germany - Sugar Factory
650,000 est.
ESTIMATED TOTAL SUDAN -- $3,150,000
$31150,000
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1. Completed
Czech ->- Sugar Factory
$650,000 est.
ESTIMATED TOTAL IRAN -.- $650,000
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SAUDI ARABIA
East Germany .~~..?-.-..