NSC BRIEFING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000400220002-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 8, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 7, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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LAOS
,tA t t L t s is
I. Pathet LaoAattackeJon 5 December.t govern-
ment forces in northern Laos province of
Sam Neua seems to have involved about
1,000 rebel troops.
A. Laotian Defense Minister, Prince
Souvanna Phouma, fears it may be start
of large-scale Pathet offensive, which
he has expected sometime prior to the
25 December elections called for by
Geneva accords.
B. However, US Embassy Vientiane reports
that information on fighting is still
too fragmentary to determine whether
serious offensive really in prospect.
1. Attack may prove to be another in
long series of localized incidents.
II. Laotian government, however, could use
attack as excuse for offensive of its own,
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A. Defense Minister is known to favor
strong military response to any
Pathet Lao action.
III. Should counter-action by government be
successful enough to endanger Pathet
position, Viet Minh would probably
intervene.
A. Hanoi kadio on 5 December charged
Royal Government had initiated
"violent attacks."
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BERLIN SITUATION
I. East German capabilities for isolating West
Berlin, without Soviet assistance, have
significantly increased during past six
years (since Soviet Berlin blockade, June
148 to May '49).
A. Besides East German army (KIP)--GDR now
has both a border police organization
(HDG-30,000) and an internal security
force (10,000). , n
1. Some 5,000 HDG troops now stationed
along Berlin borders (small, lightlg-
equippdd, mobile units).
2. 4,000 of internal security troops
actually stationed within East Berlin.
B. These two forces, particularly if
(A,--n
augmented by 5-6,000 KVP roop(includ-
ing mechanized units) within 25 miles of
Berlin, could isolate West Berlin against
non-military attempts to supply city by
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II. British stand has brought sharp reaction in
some West German papers, which have charged
that it was a mistake, and the first step
in recognition of the GDR.
A. One paper, a ," bloid, remarked that
"British have extended a finger to the
East German regthme, as if not knowing
that the whole hand would be taken.
B. Bonn government yesterday, however,
announced that it had been consulted by
the British before the UK position was
made public.
1. Bonn's statement was reserved and
carried no immediate reflection of
either disapproval or agreement.
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D. However, no significant reinforcement
of either Soviet or East German forces
around Berlin in recent months.
III. Recent increases in GDR pressure against
Western position on Berlin, aimed at
achievement recognition East German
sovereignty, include threats to elevated
system, canals, highways.
A. On 2 Dec, East Germans claimed extension
jurisdiction over GDR-operated elevated
railway system in Berlin, to include
tracks and stations in West Berlin.
1. Probably no immediate intention,
however, of severing service between
East and West Berlin.
B. East Germans also demanding West Germany
enter "ministerial level" discussions on
barge traffic to Berlin.
1. Barges may be interfered with, and
possibly stopped, at end of year
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C. On 5 Dec, East Germans announced that
compulsory East German insurance would
be required after 1 Jan '56 for all
Western vehicles driven-in East Germany.
1. Regulation will probably include
East Berlin.
2. On basis "road-toll" precedent,
East Germany could set insurance
fees at exorbitant figure.
D. Finally, recent unconfirmed reports
suggest coming East German attempt to
charge tolls for Western aircraft's use
of air corridors in Berlin.
1. These "air-toll" reports probably
part of war of nerves.
IV. While likely that GDR will be quick to seize
additional opportunities to harass the
Western position in Berlin, as part of
"sovereignty" campaign, US Army officials in
66RMAKy
,do not believe Communists contemplate overt
use of force against West Berlin at present
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FRENCH ELECTIONS
1. Prospects for outcome 2 Jan elections still
unclear, since party alliances not yet
announced (must be on record by 10 Dec).
A. Electoral law permits parties to
"affilia,te" (i.e., have votes cast
for all of them counted as a. single
unit).
B. Any single-party slate or "affiliation"
getting majority wins all seats in its
district.
1. If no majority, sea.ts are allotted
by one or another complex system
of proportional representation.
2. Virtually impossible for any single-
party slate to win majority (it
happened in only one of France's
95 districts in '51 election).
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3. In '51, "affiliated" lists won
majority in 38 districts; in 56
others, seats were allotted by
proportional representation.
II. 28 different French parties already reported
entering candidates for Ja.n race on "na.tion-_
al" basis (i.e., in more than 30 districts),
which is prerequisite for "affiliation."
A. Number includes representatives of
Pouja.de's "anti-tax" movement.
B. Two different groups of Radical
Socialists reported, in anticipation
party split over Mendes-France feud
with Faure.
C. Socialist National Council on 6 Dec
passed resolution excluding "a,ffilia-
tion" with Communists, despite fact
that over one third of 3,000 delegates
favored such alliance.
D. Mendes-France will try to line-up Social-
ist candidates on basis Socialist reso-'
lution ivin his camppaiggn tacit a.p-
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POW
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 Approved For RflIeas jj%jo/u h9 PCF ma y83mprove00i0t4s002pos i t ion
in National Assembly, Communist partici-
pation in French government formed
after Jan elections is most improbable.
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NSC BRIEFING 7 December 1955
OPINION OA FRENCH ELECTIONS
I. An American observer in Paris long inter-
ested in French politics expects:
1. Substantial victory for govt coali-
tion, short of assuring real sta-
bility;
2. Mendes-France will continue denounce
"trickery" of Jan elections and non-
representative nature of new assembly:
3. This will further discredit parlia-
mentary institutions and threaten
governmental stability;
4. Battle to "save the republic" from
the right increases long-term
threat of popular front including
Communists.
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BRITISH STAND ON GERMAN BARGE LICENCING
1. On question of East German authority to deal
with barge license issue, UK has taken
position that the East Germans could handle
the licensing of barges of West Germany
transiting East German terriToy to Berlin
but that these "administrative arrangements"
could not be regarded as affecting "in any
way" the obligations assumed by the Soviet
Union, the United States, France and Britain
under the Paris Agreement of June 1949.
A. This agreement insures the normal
functioning of water transport in Germany.
B. This action turns over to the East and
West Germans the joint supervision of
canal traffic across the East-West
German boundary provided for originally
in a British-Soviet agreement in 1946.
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C. East German capabilities to interfere
with an air supply operation extremely
limited, however.
1. GDR air arm (VDA) possesses only
105 planes (conventional trainers).
II. Thus, any Communist attempt to halt either
air-lift or Militarily-supported ground
supply operation to Berlin would almost
certainly require active participation of
Soviet forces.
A. 37,000 Soviet ground troops in immediate
vicinity Berlin include three line
divisions with supporting artillery
units--ample to blockade or completely
overrun West Berlin.
B. Total Allied strength in West Berlin is
about 6,000, of which 3,200 are US.
C. USSR has 20 jet fighter regiments in
East Germany--738 aircraft (of which at
least 30 are all-weather fighters)--a
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air blockade