ESTIMATES ON SOUTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01580R001603420042-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 15, 2014
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: June 15, 1965
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified and Approved For Release 2014/01/15 : CIA-RDP80R01580R001603420042-2
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15 June 1965
MEMORANDUM FOR: DDCI
SUBJECT : Estimates on South Vietnam
1. In general I am in agreement with the estimates but would
make the following additional comments.
a. Nowhere is any mention made of SVN war weariness.
Isn't this an increasing possibility--that is, that they might decide to
stop fighting--as they take a consistent beating? The war weariness
must be mounting as the slaughter increases. Also, as the situation
worsens and American advisers are more insistent, won't resentment
and non-cooperation increase? In my opinion, the SVN have little
compunction about switching sides.
b. It seems unanimous that if China is hit or threatened
she will come in. In my view, NVN can be practically flattened with
only limited impairment of the war effort and she will not invite the
Chinese in nor will they come in. It was a grass roots improvised
war from the start and can retarn to that. There has been a singular
lack of ability in the south to stop the flow of men and material. There
will have to be a major long-term reversal of the war in the South before
the North worries.
c. VC intelligence is appallingly good. They hold the initiative
and choose the battlefields. This will have to be reversed before the
tide of the war changes.
d. Where do all the SVN who are captured or desert to the
VC ultimately go? How many have ever been recaptured or recovered?
We never hear of a VC-PW camp being liberated. Aren't they being
reoriented and put into VC battalions?
South.
2. Where will we be a year from now?
a. It will depend 80 to 90 per cent on what happens in the
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b. US will not 0:et 'to bring the Chinese in.
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c. US will not use A-bomb?public won't permit it.
d. NVN will negotiate only when they feel the military
phase in the South cannot be successful, and then they will ask for a
cease-fire and return to subversion.
e. US-SVN can win the war in the South if:
(1) The borders are sealed--why mop up the floor
with the faucet still on;
(2)
SVN intelligence is built up;
(3) SVN population is purged and controlled; and
(4) guerrillas are fought by guerrillas.
LBK:rr:15 June 65
Distribution:
0 - addressee
ER
1 - ExDir
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Lyman B. Kirkpatrick
Executive Director
Declassified and Approved For Release 2014/01/15 : CIA-RDP80R01580R001603420042-2