MORE VIETNAM NUMBERS PROBLEMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01720R000200110011-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 9, 2004
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: November 3, 1967
• Content Type: MF

l
Approved For Release =ULTCIA-RDP80RO172OR000200110011-2
_ XU4DaA - - T D ZC'' 3&
'ZCT me" Vietnam s Pw*Usm*
b 1
* ms's *sd.
es
t***
4
a-
~
ar~-a
t*ri .i
t*
= c"-t4*r*tbM a 14. -67
exch*Age of tea Wm4cs
1. CWW* ** t
ssUybS V1 ,&**-rr .t oth*r
rr**.
Z. T r . s o draft 4is a sb*s is arr 1*s fromm 0*
'*r* (S WI dear, s*U f08",,, , Aft-
a ram Sat A .1
p'ly 1* tt -to, tt - 90. 0" raft*. It gives
zaIsn Owe zwm*a4 mmr a4 air 4r sta*
always at*"* a- apt a t 4serr ar A" other
tho
* y a 164M ArA Ca sts. vuwa
ara a U M tjW VC AWY be L
this # , t * - i F r* see' s*tb* *ruweiri 0.3. bar
t -0.WM at" to4sa Ut WMTO
r*S*SS" is sr** 406 00 a s of r: r
bobty requtrs a * t 3 S*s a
aajg, Z"r* a a r tom. VC ar
1 e
auto AgMAS rO*d
Approved For Release 2004/05/05 : CIA-RDP80RO172OR000200110011-2
C70DCT
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/05/05 : CIA-RDP80R01720R000200110011-2
$*tis ? t a" tomptax NOVA.
. PatOWASI i n roc*ad r
two t S. Vbkb 0"
.x as ti*s
0*ax r A. ' v r, JV-
SPOCUA for #rr
o
Dolt
OUR w
cirz
cmO
O/DCI/SAVA:VAS:GACarver:taw:3Nov67
Distribution: D t SIB
As above w/2 atts l ~Gk
1 - VAS Chrono w/atts
1 - GAC Chrono Wlatts
Approved For Release 2004/~tutfDPMR01 720 R000200110011-2
 tNOtxr i YE] 0 40
CLA$.t;rv as" Fitt n'a%
X .f TO 4L~i S~:x.
25X1
0.4 CIS. 7O )RANCH 0
of i TR9Y 0 1I Is.
S E C R E T 030902Z CITE SAIGON
DIRECTOR
25X1 REFERENCE: DIRECTOR 47164
25X1
SENDING INTERIM REPLY AS WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO
GET RETURNS FROM FIELD. SO FAR NO INFORMATION OF "CONSOLIDATED
MILITIA/ GUERRILLA ORGANIZATION" OTHER THAN IV CORPS F-1 REPORTS,
SPECIFICALLY FROM CKUONG THIEN PROVINCE. OB NUMBERS
PROBLEM MORE COMPLEX EVEN THAN REFERENCE SUGGESTS.
25X1 2.1 SPEAK OF CONSOLIDATING HAMLET
AND VILLAGE GUERRILLAS BUT DO NOT MENTION MILITIA,
MENTIONS "PART-TIME" GUERRILLAS. A NUMBER OF REPORTS TELL
OF BREAKING GUERRILLA UNITS INTO SAPPER GROUPS AND GIVING
THEM SPECIAL TRAINING.
3. REVIEW OF SEPTEMBER PROVINCE REPORTS AND RECENT
25X1 DOCUMENTS (E.G.
INDICATE GUERRILLA PROGRAM-- BOTH PLANS AND ORGANIZATION-
IN STATE OF. FLUX THROUGHOUT COUNTRY AND APPARENTLY MOVING
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS IN DIFFERENT PROVINCES. VILLAGE
IIIs rt) 0 ?t) ) 0vutt.
IT
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/05/05: CIA-l DP8ORO1720R000200110011-2
 Approved For Lease 2004/05/05 : CIA-RDP80RO172OR000200110011-2
25X1 PAGE TWO SAIGON
S E C R E T
COMMITTEES BEING GIVEN CONTRADICTORY ORDERS TO ENCOURAGE
MORE GUERRILLAS TO MOVE UP TO MAIN FORCES AND TO STRENGTHEN
GUERRILLA UNITS.
4. WE ARE-PROBABLY KIDDING OURSELVES IF WE THINK IN
TERMS OF TWO RATHER UNIFORM AND DISPARATE CLASSES OF IRREGULARS?
GUERRILLAS AND MILITIA. THE IRREGULAR STRUCTURE APPEARS
TO HAVE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ORGANIZATIONS AND TO
VARY FROM REGION TO REGION, PERHAPS FROM PROVINCE TO PROVINCE.
IT IS A ROUGHLY PYRAMIDAL STRUCTURE THE BASE OF WHICH
DISOLVES INTO THE MASS OF THE PEOPLE UNDER VIET CONG CONTROL
IN A MANNER THAT MAKES IT IMPOSSIBLE TO DRAW A SHARP LINE
AND SAY THAT THOSE ON ONE SIDE ARE IRREGULARS AND THE OTHERS
ARE NOT, SIMILARLY, THOUGH PERHAPS TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE
EXISTENCE OF "PART-TIME GUERRILLAS" AND, POSSIBLE, FULL-TIME
MILITIA MAKES THE LINE BETWEEN THESE CATEGORIES A VERY
FUZZY ONE.
5. THE ATTEMPT TO ENUMERATE THE IRREGULARS WITHIN
PRECISE CATEGORIES IS A SISYPHEAN TASK. THERE WILL ALWAYS
BE OVERLAPS OR OMISSIONS. THIS SEEMS FAR LESS IMPORTANT
THAN THE FACT THAT MACV J-2 IS STILL OFFICIALLY CARRYING
THE RIDICULOUS FAGURE OF 112,7CO IRREGULARS, UNCHANGED FOR
Approved For Release 2004555-;LAr+R1P80R01720R000200110011-2
 Approved For Release 2004/05/05 : CIA-RDP80R01720R000200110011-2
PAGE THREE SAIGON
S E C R E T
OVER A YEAR AND A HALF. AND, IF THEY CHANGE FROM THIS TO
THE FIGURE THAT WAS AGREED AT THE CONFERENCE HERE, 70,000
TO 90,000 GUERRILLAS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A GREAT IMPROVEMENT,
THE SPREAD IS TOO NARROW AND PROBABLY SHOULD BE RAISED
CONSIDERABLY ON THE UPPER SIDE.
6. 1 WOULD URGE THAT INSTEAD OF STRUGGLING WITH MACV
OVER WHETHER THE LINE BETWEEN GUERRILLAS AND MILITIA HAS BEEN
FURTHER FUZZED AND FURTHER INACCURACY ADDED TO ALREADY
DUBIOUS GUERRILLA OB FIGURES, WE OUGHT TO STRIVE TO ACHIEVE
A WHOLE NEW APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF QUANTIFYING VIET CONG
IRREGULAR STRENGTH. I SUGGEST THAT COMMUNIST "PEOPLES FORCES"
SHOULD BE THOUGHT OF MORE IN TERMS OF EXPLOITATION OF
POPULATION RESOURCES RATHER THAN IN TERMS OF CLASSICAL MILITARY
08. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE PROBLEM HANDLED IN TERMS
SOMEWHAT LIKE THE PARAGRAPH WHICH FOLLOWS.
7. THE VIET CONG HAVE ACCESS TO BETWEEN 2.5 MILLION.
AND 3 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE TERRITORY THEY CONTROL PLUS SOME
IN DISPUTED AND GVN-HELD TERRITORY. THEY CONSIDER ALL OF
THEM RESOURCES TO BE USED IN WAR.- A LARGE PART OF THEM ARE
DIRECTLY EMPLOYED ONA SPORADIC, PART-TIME, OR FULL-TIME BASIS
Approved For Release 2004/05/05
CfA-RDP80R01720R000200110011-2
 Approved or Release 2004/05/05 : CIA-RDP80R01720R000200110011-2
SECRET
PAGE FOUR SAIGON I IS E C R E T
IN MILITARY AND QUASI-MILITARY ACTIVITIES. PERHAPS AS MANY
AS 100,000 ARE SERVING AS FULL-TIME GUERRILLAS AND AT ANY
GIVER TIME THERE MAY BE 1 00, 000 OR MORE OF THE OTHERS
STANDING GUARD. BUILDING FORTIFICATIONS, REMOVING WOUNDED
AND DEAD, PERFORMING WOGISTIC SERVICES OR OTHERWISE PARTICIPATING
IN THE. VC WAR EFFORT. WHAT THEY DO FOR THE VIET CONG IS
LARGELY DONE BY UNIFORMED FULL-TIME TROOPS IN ALLIED FORCES,
WHICH MAKES COMPARISON OF NUMBERS MISLEADING.
8. WILL REPLY B j CABLE AS SOON AS ANSWERS ARE RECIEVE
FROM OUR IV CORPS REGIONAL OFFICE AND MACV OB.
S E C R E T
C
?'f?I'~I ldY
IIJ
Approved For:Relgase? 1d04/05/b5 ? tc-R[ P80R01720R000200110011-2?:. %; ~.-,
s
1.
 ?5~i, App For Release 2004/05105. Clioc=RDP8~R~1720Ra0p20!?1-IO _11-9
0C ff.'s i ; :: 'd
n E- \/ A to
^ m++sess ma
25X1
25X1
a#CRET
TZ7 14 40"Z
SAIGON 3341 (IN 73294)
REFS: A. SAIGON
0,41 &Nr
25X1
2. SEPTEMBER VC ACTIVITIES REPORT OF CHUONG TEN PROVINCE
(PARR It REF A) INDICATES THAT E . DISTRICT.LEV + DEFECTOR STATED
THAT A COSVN DIRECTIVE Or JULY 1967 "DID AWAY" WITH VC LET AND
VILLAGE GUERRILLAS, AND "CONSOLIDATED A D. ILITIA/GUERRILLA ORGANIZA-
TION, " REPORTED ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO COMB1 E CUERRILL: ' A.ND
SELF- DEFENSE MILITIA. REF A FURTHER STATES THAT "CBE. OF VC TRA
VINH PROVINCE MILITARY AFFAIRS COMMITTEE ? , ? VERLFIED THE ESTABLISH
MENT OF MILITIA /GUERRILLA UNITS. " VC ACTIVITIES SEPTEMBER REPORT 0?
IV CORPS (REF B, PARA 2), COMMENTED THAT "VC APPEAR TO BE TRYING TO
CONSOLIDATE THEIR. LOW-LEVEL UNITS.
3, BECAUSE OF IMMINENT DROPPING FROM MAC'S' 03 OF VC SELF-
e
DEFENSE ELEMENTS (ONE. OF T~Wl
~Yld ar, t0 d. ? * ` ~sscte
`Approved For Release 2 04/OJ/Q?5 LCilk-A2'D~80R0172~R( 00 1
3i
,110"nX1
 W!At CLII,J1 ._... 4
Approved for R leas?--2A84I 5/05 .-CIA-RDPS Rn1720 09 0&14 2--
# ---- s
3 E, C R E T
Flo
kafvY q 0 'A .e C A *C$
1""t 4y 0
MM.~o~ci wp*e