LETTER FOR MR. COLBY FROM CLARENCE D. LONG

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01720R000400050025-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2004
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: November 5, 1975
• Content Type: LETTER

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COM!M MTEE ON
APPROPRIATIONS
SUNCOM M1rrErs.
FAREIGN COYERATIONS,
JPtTERlOR
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141-
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November 5, 1975
lir.. William Colby, Director
Central Intelligence Agency
9a:' ington, D.C. 20505
Dear 21a-. Colby:
DISTRICT o ccv^:
200 Posr Or1=1ce 8u1LO!NG
TOWSON, MARYLAND 21204
Thank you for your response of June 4 to my inquiry re-
arding the Harper's article by Mr. Samuel Adar s on Vietcong
troop estimation by the CIA.
your letter was quite helpful in clarifying some of the
key points at issue in this controversy. I have compared your
analysis of several ok these points with that given by Mr.
Adams in his article. From this comparison, I have developed
a n tuber of questions exploring the differences between these
analyses. I look forward to having your answers to these ques-
tions, which are enclosed.
Warm regards,
CD L: pm
Enclosure
cc: The Honorable George Bush
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2UESTIONS FOR MR. COLBY ON CIA'S VC TROOP FIGURES
1. Your letter states that, besides being fragmentary, VC troop
estimates from captured documents were unreliable because of the
tendency to inflate numbers of troops enlisted, etc. However,
the accusation of unreliability should not apply to VC estimates
of their own losses.
-- If the total of VC troops was near the CIA's claimed total
of 270,000, how do you explain Mr. Adams' point that the.VC
army would have been quickly decimated by a casualty rate of
150,000 and a desertion rate of 50-100,000 a year?
2. In his article, Mr. Adams states that three of the four com-
ponents of the VC troop total ("order of battle"), the guerrilla-
militia, the service troops, and the political cadres, had by 1967
not been revised since their original calculation in 1964-65.
-- If not, when in the interim were they revised?
-- If it is true, how is it justifiable, especially consider-Lag
the problems Adams claims to have found in the methods by which the troop figures were calculated (Harper's article,.p. 62)?
3. Vice-Admiral Rufus Taylor, former deputy director of the CIA.
from 1966 to 1969, in a letter to Harper's responding to the Adams
article, states that "the consensus ... was that VC troop strength
was indeed a good deal greater than had been estimated but probably
not as great as Sam thought."
-- Why then did the CIA support the military's VC troops esti-
mates of under 300,000, when (according to Vice Admiral Taylor)
the CIA consensus was that such a figure was far too low?
-- Does the CIA now concede that the larger (500-600,000 VC
troops) figure was the correct one, in retrospect?
Did the CIA accept the higher numbers in the summer of
1967,-as claimed by Mr. Adams? In February 1968, after the
Tet offensive?
4. In his article, Mr. Adams states that the number of VC agents
was nearer 30,000 than the CIA's claim of about 300. He also asserts
that the CIA resisted White House attempts to obtain Adams' memo
on the 300,000 figure. Your letter does not deal with this statement.
-- Is lfry, Adams' assertion true?.
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-- Which figure, according to the information now available,
was more accurate?
 UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL SECRET
EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
Routing Slip
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Remarks: Per your request, attached are items
#5 and 6 from the 7 November Director's
Daily Journal.
l~,~toays
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3637 (1-75) Date
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ACTION
CONFIDENTIAL
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