HOW FORTHCOMING IS THIEU PREPARED TO BE ON THE RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS WHICH THE GVN NOW HOLDS?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01720R000400090047-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 18, 2004
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: October 16, 1972
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For ReIse 2004/06/14: CIA-RDP80R01720R0 400090047- 1 // f .
16 October 1972
SUBJECT x How Forthcoming is Thieu Prepared to be on the Release
of Political Prisoners which the GVN Now Holds?
1. The answer to this question depends almost wholly on
the context of the negotiated settlement of which a.release of
political prisoners would be a part. If the context included a
cease-fire in place now -- when most of the main roads around
Saigon are interdicted or insecure -- Thieu would almost certainly
cease-fire.
grasp at any issue which would help him resist a
He would argue that the release of political prisoners would
make a bad situation mmmlex worse, since these prisoners
would immediately begin engaging in political activity against
him. He would further argue that these dangerous individuals
lvokl
in
d safe-haven and a base of operations in areas (given
to the Communists by the cease-fire) on the very outskirts of
Saigon.
2. On the other hand, if a negotiated settlement and
cease-fire occurred at a time when the GVN's territorial
situetio;,,t particularly around Saigon, looked as good as it
has for most of the past three years -- and if the other provisions
Approved For Release 2004/06/14: CIA-RDP80R01720R000400090047-4
 Approved For Rse 2004/06/14: CIA-RDP80R01720RQW400090047-4
seemed to be favorable or at least not unfavorable to the GVN --
then Thieu would probably take a considerably more relaxed
approach to the matter of releasing political prisoners.
In sum, a definitive answer to this question is impossible
unless one knows what the other terms of a negotiated settlement
are likely to look like.
Approved For Release 2004/06/14: CIA-RDP80RO172OR000400090047-4