AGREEMENT ON VIET CONG STRENGTH FIGURES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01720R000500070021-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2004
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: September 15, 1967
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2004/08/19 : CIA-RDP80RO1720ROW00070021-3
Saigon, Vietnam
A-2592
.15 September 1967
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Ambassador
SUBJECT s Agreement on Viet Cong Strength Figures
As I reported in our 14 September conversation, agreement has
been reached between COMUSMACV and the representatives of CIA, DIA
and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research on the following esti-
mate of current Viet Cong strength:
MILITARY
Main and Local Forces
119,000
- (119 , 000)
Administrative Services
35,000
- 40,000
Guerrillas
__70,000
_90.000
Total Military Force
224,000
- 249,000
POLITICAL CADRE
75,000
- 85
000
,0
Aggregate Total
2990000
3340000
The issue of the "irregulars" (self-defense, secret self-
defense, assault youth, etc.) derived from COMUSMACV.strong feeling
that no quantified estimate of current strength should be given
(Biro es this would give a number that could be taken and used out
of context) and the need felt in Washington for some form of order
of magnitude indication. This issue was resolved by treating the
subject in narrative form. A copy of the agreed draft text on this
topic was given to you on 14 September.
Though the above figures show an aggragate total, we in
Washington are of the strong conviction.- shared by our colleagues
In MACV -- that this aggregate total is meaningless and misleading.
Washington publications on this topic will not use or refer to any
such aggregate total.
Though we have reached agreement on a political cadre total
using presently accepted definitions, we also agree that these
Ste..
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definitions need considerable refinement and
they dictate is not particularly they dicta meaningful or hence, the number
include much more than the true helpful
bexclude many trained and full-tuna activists. Present
but u Saigon colleagues olitico1 "l4ladDavi leadership"
eto refine lea and I are Jointl General Davidson,
jointly initiating ep interagency
effort f r to, efand improve our anal
work Of he onemyte political orgnniznysis conceptual break-
will dicta , the politics l?" -When this necessary
Ppoar. figure in its present form
I understand that General
the agreements I thad Westmoreland has formally endorsed
the Outlined and so reported to y ndorsed n of
decussnt C iefch Of led Staff. As indicated the Chaion, the
utin the
beneficial to all parties involved.
these agreements wererlivelyrbbut
cleared, we have much better rties involThe has vedor atof each h c Others hers most
and I believe Washington and Saigon been
leitxth a' yeve
. something that will will now be on the
Common endeavor. greatly benefit all ag a same wave
P at,a of our
Per your request, I am summarizes the initial Washingtondandg a Saigon spread sheet which
process through which final a e positions and the
most grateful through agreement was reached.
to Ge, through General Westmoreland I would be
the thanks Davidson all of his able, . You would extend
the t of the entire comprehensive shington delegation most impressive effec,
success of our point briefings and
other Invaluable contributionfctive
,
endeavor.
e to the
Attachment
An Stated Above
George A. Carver, Jr.
Special Assistant to the Director
of Central Intelligence for
Vietnamese Affairs
SECflET 25X1
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SECRET
MIACV Briefing
t
t Draft 11 Se
3 28 Au
11 Sept. MIACV Proms
Washington Reps.
Proposal
Final Fib
Agreed
p
.
gus
NIE 14.
UILITARY
Main & Local
000
119
000
119
119,000-119,000
Porco 121,000 - (121,000) 119,000
119,000
- (119,000)
,
-
,
400
000- 40'
35
Adgin Service 40,000 - 60,000 29,000
25,000
35,000
35,000 - 45,000
,
,
000
000- 90
90
" i11as 60,000 100,000 65,000
75,000
- 95,000
95,000 - 95,000
,
,
~ ~-
Military `~- -
Tota1 221,000 - 281,000 213,000
219,000
- 249,000
229,000 - 259,000
224,000-249,000
(234,000)
POLITICAL 90,000 - (90,000) 85,000
70,000
- 80,000
80,000 90,000
75,000- 65,000
Aggregat+
Total 311,000 - 371,000 298,000
289,000
- 329,000
P
309,000 - 349,000
299,000-334,000
SECRET
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