(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01720R001300020008-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 12, 2004
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: September 27, 1972
• Content Type: CABLE

Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP80R01720R001300020008-4
S E. C R E T 27110OZ SEP 72 STAFF
2WRE SAIGON 55036
DIRECTOR.
1. PLANNED REDUCTION OF MACV DIRECTORATE OF
7
7-19
~/
INTELLIGENCE (MACDI) (FORMERLY J2) TO 60 POSITIONS BY 1 DECEMBER
72 RAISES FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS WHETHER REMAINING STAFFING
EQUAL TO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANALYSIS UN ENEMY INTENTIONS
AND DISPOSITIONS AND ON DEGREE OF EFFECTIVENESS WHICH CAN
REALISTICALLY BE EXPECTED FROM THAT REDUCED FORCE.
2. FROM 746 POSITIONS A YEAR AG09 MACV INTEL HOW DOWN TO
155 AND WILL BE DOWN TO 60 BY 1 DECEMBER. IN CONSONANCE WITH
NORMAL MILITARY PRACTICE9 A NUMBER OF PERSONNEL WHOSE POSITIONS
WILL PHASE OUT ON 1 DECEMBER WILL . IN FACT HAVE DEPARTED
EARLIER. THUS SHARP REDUCTION IN MACDI EFFECTIVENESS IS
IMMINENT, FURTHER 9 WE UNDERSTAND THAT EMPHASIS WILL BE ON
AIR INTEL.
3. ALTHOUGH IT IS REASONABLE ASSUMPTION THAT U'S.
i_i!TERE]TS AND INVOLVEMENT IN VIETNAM WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
T IS ,\!EVERTHELE SS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY U. S.
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP80R01720R001300020008-4
 25X1
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP80R01720R001300020008-4
PAGE 2 SAIGON 55036 S E C R E T
INVOLVEMENT AND INTEREST IN SOUTH VIETNAM FOR SOME YEARS TO
COME. FATE OF SOUTH VIETNAM WILL FOR AT LEAST NEXT SEVERAL
YEARS BE SUBJECT OF HIGHEST LEVEL U. S. POLICY CONSIDERATIONS.
U.S. FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL INPUTS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL EVEN THOUGH SHARPLY REDUCED FROM PREVIOUS LEVELS.
TN A NUTSHELL, U.S. 'ESTIGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ON SURVIV:,'_
OF NON-SONMUNIST SOUTH VIETNAM FOR SOME TIME TO COME.
WITH NO INDICATION THAT ENEMY PLANS GENUINE PEACE
WHETHER OR NOT CEASE FIRE COMES ABOUT -IN NEAR-TERM FUTURE, IT
SEEMS TO US THAT U.S. INTELLIGENCE CANNOT AFFORD ABANDON
COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS OF ENEMY PLANS AND CAPABILITIES, BOTH
OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE BEARING ON 0S- POLICY. YET
ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT CUT-BACK IN COLLECTION, IN-COUNTRY
ANALYTICAL CAPABILITY ALSO BEING REDUCED VERY SHARPLY.
5. THERE ARE SEVERAL ALTERNATIVES TO COPE WITH PROBLEM
PRESENTED ABOVE0 SIMPLEST OF COURSE WOULD BE TO MAINTAIN
MACDI AT 'A MORE ADEQUATE LEVEL AND INSURE THAT THERE SHOULD
BE PROPER MIX OF INSURGENCY GROUND COMBAT AND AIR COMBAT
ANALYSIS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY WOULD BE TO HAVE MILITARY INTEL
r
~ eN2 /a /2 H ~A-~ O q l7 ~4 RQ'13A0~ (~8-4
AL YS 1 S FOCUS ~?IpTd It
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PAGE 3 SAIGON 55036S E' C R E T
WOULD BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY IN THAT AREA BUT MAKE OTHER
PROVISIONS FOR COUNTER-SUBVERSION AND GROUND FORCES
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CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS ANALYSIS. THIS COULD BE DOD CIVILIAN,
SURFACE THIS TO YOUR ATTENTION AND POSSIBLE CONSIDER A--
TION BY WASHINGTON AUTHORITIES AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF OUR
CONCLUSION THAT PROJECTED DEGRADATION OF U.S. INTEL ANALYTICAL
CAPABILITY IN VIETNAM PREMATURE IN LIGHT OF ENEMY'S STATED
INTENT ION TO PREVAIL AND Ua S. SIMILARLY STATED DETERMINATION
TO PREVENT ENEMY FROM DOING SO. E2 IMPDET,
S E C R E T
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP80R01720R001300020008-4