(SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01731R000700500019-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 1, 2006
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: March 29, 1957
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/08/02 : CIA-RDP80RO1731 R000700500019-4
Approved For Release 2006/08/02 : CIA-RDP80R01731 R000700500019-4
 Approved For Release 2006/08/02 : CIA-RDP80R01731 R000700500019-4
WI.'
DD/P 3_LL
4 February 1957
VT A.
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
.veputy Director (Pla
Planning for Possible Acceptance by
CHIANG Kai-shek of Chinese Communist
Offers to be Vice Premier
REFERENCES: A. Memorandum, subject as stated above,
to the DCI from Inspector General,
dated 3 January 1957
B. Memorandum, subject as stated above,
to the DCI from Assistant Director,
National Estimates, dated 17 January 1957
1. This memorandum is for your information.
2. The Far East Division concurs with the conclusions reached
by the Assistant Director, National Estimates, in reference B.
3. To support his views, the Assistant Director, National
Estimates, notes in paragraph 1 of reference B the following quotation
from NIE 43-56:
"so long as President CHIANG remains in power no
substantial change in Nationalist policy is likely to occur.
The Far East Division, concurs insofar as this statement applies to
Communist China. However, should any third country (including the
USA) change its policy toward Communist China, the Nationalist
Government would be expected to change its policy toward that country.
00CUA4ENT NO.
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4. The Far East Division is endeavouring to assist the U. S. Govern-
ment intelligence community in its estimates of political conditions on
Taiwan by:
a. An intensive political action program designed to win the
confidence of high officials of the Nationalist Government and thus
influence their attitudes toward international events;
b. The initiation of monthly estimates of political conditions
on Taiwan to be originated by senior personnel
FAR EAST DIVI ON
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DATE 29 Maxch 1957
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4 February 1957
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 Approved For Release 2006/08/02 ftPLO EftOR01731 ROd 00019=
17 January 1957
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR
PsicuUva i~acrssfrr
&2A __J
SUBJECT: Comment on "Planning for Possible Acceptance
by Chiang Kai-shek of Chinese Communist Offer
to be Vice Premier"
REFERENCE: Memorandum, subject as above, to DCI from
Inspector General, dated 3 January 1957
1. We believe that Chiang Kai-shek himself would not
respond favorably to any invitation to assume a position in
the Chinese Communist regime. Chiang considers himself
and the National Government as the guardians of traditional
Chinese culture and traditions and we believe that his anti-
Communist attitudes are so deeply rooted that he would not
accommodate to Peiping even in the face of the desertion of
his principal subordinates. This view of Chiang's position is
implicit in the statement in NIE 43-56, "The Prospects of the
Government of the Republic of China", published 9 October 1956,
that "so long as President Chiang remains in power no sub-
stantial change in Nationalist policy is likely to occur. " We
have received no intelligence tending to alter this view.
,MORI/CDF This Pz
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2. Chou En-lai's public statements about a position in the
Pei'ping regime for Chiang Kai-shek were almost certainly
made in order to stimulate doubt and uncertainty in lower
levels on Taiwan, rather than with any expectation of subverting
Chiang. The Chinese Communists have been attempting for
at least two years to subvert individuals and groups at all
levels on Taiwan, and we share the concern expressed in the
referenced memorandum both as to the possibility of success
of these Communist efforts and our lack of information on the
success or failure of the Communist effort to date. In NIE 43-56
the intelligence community agreed that "If Communist China
continues its peaceful pose, avoids serious internal tensions,
continues to make substantial domestic economic progress,
and attains increased international recognition, an increasing
number of mainland Chinese on Taiwan will be conditioned to
look more favorably upon the Communist regime and upon the
possibility of reaching some accommodation with it."
3. We have indicated our concern in this matter both in
direct communication with FE/PP and through the post-mortems
MORI/CDF This P
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to the NIE.'s on Taiwan. Our post mortem to NIE 43-55, dated
15 November 1955, stated that "Our estimates )on Taiwan/ could
be strengthened by fuller and more specific information on the
extent and nature of Communist subversive efforts, the effective-
ness of Nationalist counterintelligence, and by more positive
information on the state of civilian morale on Taiwan, especially
among officials. " In the post mortem to NIE 43-56, dated 10
October 1956, the intelligence community agreed that we need
more information on "the effect of Chinese Communist propaganda
directed toward Taiwan and individuals on Taiwan. "
4. We understand that a concerted effort is underway on Taiwan
to develop capabilities to obtain from controlled sources the type
of information discussed above and in the referenced memorandum.
In the meantime we agree with the referenced memorandum that
collection requirements should be kept under review. In view
of our lack of solid information concerning attitudes of top
Nationalist leaders, contingency planning to cover the possibility
of high level defections and serious unrest on Taiwan should re-
ceive some priority; although we believe the defection of Chiang
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himself most unlikely, we would not recommend barring such a
development from contingency planning.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES:
SHERMAN KENT
Assistant Director
National Estimates
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