Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
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Document Creation Date: 
December 14, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 12, 1999
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Publication Date: 
December 23, 1948
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PDF icon CIA-RDP80R01731R001200050054-9.pdf206.83 KB
Approved For Release 200 RDP80R01731 R00120005005 ""'''=c-" FOR: Ti.i DlRahuTOR OF CE,TTRt-L ENT .'L3~Ltx~i;'C~, Ih',Ji CT : CIA Relations with the 1_ir rorce o i Estimates of Soviet 1ntentio]1s. 1. .:.y under s--'Lt,uuinct of the origin of tie March "war scar(-" is that General Clay wrote a letter to the 3?,-crcet4ar r of ': ar in : he stated that although he had no sped s is evidence to support his position he nad a distinct "feel ingtt thaai. the U !t ltu,>ht resort to military action in the near future. 1 never iw ddon. Clay's letter. 2. i:fter this letter was discussed in -the Department of the Army, as I understand it, General Chamberlain called a meeting of the Directors of the 1LC Agencies ,:o discuss the situation. At this meeting, after considerable general discussion, it was decided to appoint an ad hoc working committee rc r 6 ,,enting all the IAG .cncies to make a quick reassessment of Soviet intentions forthe next 60 day period and report back to the Directors of the a encies. I was appointed chairman of this tad hoc comt-i.':tee. thin dwrs this corm ttee submitted a report to c second meetil_t- of t he Di : ectors of the 1>`_C agencies. The, Dirdetor s did not acce t .., .e full report but decided instesd to suhr i?- to the Pres d er?ty and to publish as as C1:, Special .valuation, as siit)rt three pare^?rap ; st :.tem: nb under the title, "Reassessment of=, oviet Intentions for t'ie vext 60 1Da:,rsdated 16 1.1i:rch 1948. he ad hoc committee continued its 'o;tudies an< subseg .entlyr published three E,.dd_tional stiuFtos as follows: 1. '"lossibility of Direct Soviet i dlitaaary r_ction During (u1,y. 22-48), 2 y)ril 1948. 2. The Str.te;--ic Value to the U& A of the Conquest' of cstern ;ur?ol;e and the facts East (to (.'airo) Prior to 1950" '53-48 ), 30 Jvl - yr 1948. " ,. pend.iees to ORE 58-40" 27 October 1:348. OePtember the ad ioc co. 0l- is reasse,.lbled to r., ~riew Approved For Release 2003/07/29'4; c RQ. OR01731 R001200050054-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/07 ' 1R01 731 R001200050054-9 err ^ v:w 22-48, "i'ossibility of Direct Soviet j.1il_1tary Action During; 183, and to extend the ueriod under rev-e w to the end of 19411. Tllis ua..s published on 16 September. 1948 as CAE 2 ;-448 (tiddendum). 6. The followint procedures were folk -:ed in the preparation of tae above estilazates; i au tx>.,er submitted to the s =C-)nd meetin? of the -i.r,:ctors of the ILC i_gencies was based upon a draft .Bich I i d s)zb.:it-ted for the consideration of the members of the, ~d hoc com: a;tee. b. In the preparation of Qh1 2.2-41, "The 'cs sibili- ,r of JJiru~ct soviet