CIA RELATIONS WITH THE AIR FORCE ON ESTIMATES OF SOVIET INTENTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01731R001200050054-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 1999
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: December 23, 1948
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 200 RDP80R01731 R00120005005 ""'''=c-"
FOR: Ti.i DlRahuTOR OF CE,TTRt-L ENT .'L3~Ltx~i;'C~,
Ih',Ji CT : CIA Relations with the 1_ir rorce o i Estimates of Soviet
1ntentio]1s.
1. .:.y under s--'Lt,uuinct of the origin of tie March "war scar(-"
is that General Clay wrote a letter to the 3?,-crcet4ar r of ': ar in
: i-.ch he stated that although he had no sped s is evidence to
support his position he nad a distinct "feel ingtt thaai. the U !t
ltu,>ht resort to military action in the near future. 1 never iw
ddon. Clay's letter.
2. i:fter this letter was discussed in -the Department of the
Army, as I understand it, General Chamberlain called a meeting of
the Directors of the 1LC Agencies ,:o discuss the situation. At
this meeting, after considerable general discussion, it was decided
to appoint an ad hoc working committee rc r 6 ,,enting all the IAG
.cncies to make a quick reassessment of Soviet intentions forthe
next 60 day period and report back to the Directors of the a encies.
I was appointed chairman of this tad hoc comt-i.':tee. thin
dwrs this corm ttee submitted a report to c second meetil_t- of
t he Di : ectors of the 1>`_C agencies. The, Dirdetor s did not acce t
.., .e full report but decided instesd to suhr i?- to the Pres d er?ty and
to publish as as C1:, Special .valuation, as siit)rt three pare^?rap ;
st :.tem: nb under the title, "Reassessment of=, oviet Intentions for
t'ie vext 60 1Da:,rsdated 16 1.1i:rch 1948.
he ad hoc committee continued its 'o;tudies an< subseg .entlyr
published three E,.dd_tional stiuFtos as follows:
1. '"lossibility of Direct Soviet i dlitaaary r_ction During
(u1,y. 22-48), 2 y)ril 1948.
2. The Str.te;--ic Value to the U& A of the Conquest' of
cstern ;ur?ol;e and the facts East (to (.'airo) Prior
to 1950" '53-48 ), 30 Jvl - yr 1948.
" ,. pend.iees to ORE 58-40"
27 October 1:348.
OePtember the ad ioc co. 0l- is reasse,.lbled to r., ~riew
Approved For Release 2003/07/29'4; c RQ. OR01731 R001200050054-9
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v:w 22-48, "i'ossibility of Direct Soviet j.1il_1tary Action During;
183, and to extend the ueriod under rev-e w to the end of 19411.
Tllis ua..s published on 16 September. 1948 as CAE 2 ;-448 (tiddendum).
6. The followint procedures were folk -:ed in the preparation
of tae above estilazates;
i au tx>.,er submitted to the s =C-)nd meetin? of the
-i.r,:ctors of the ILC i_gencies was based upon a draft .Bich I i d
s)zb.:it-ted for the consideration of the members of the, ~d hoc
com: a;tee.
b. In the preparation of Qh1 2.2-41, "The 'cs sibili- ,r of
JJiru~ct soviet