CHINESE COMMUNIST GROUND THREAT AGAINST INDIA

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CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0
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May 21, 2003
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April 9, 1963
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Approved For Ruse 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499 S-E-C-R-E-T 8000100010018-0 . ~?_ 25X1 CENTRAL I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y 9 April 1963 M~lORA?'~~UM FOR: Mr. .A.'.lan Evans, State (INR) Colonel K. T. Gould, USA (DZA) Colonel. Paul E. Pique, USA (ACSI) C?~,ptnin G. K. Nicodemus, US1~' (ONI ) Colonel A. E. Stoll. USAF ~A~fi1IEBB~ 25X1 Sb'T3JECT: CHIT ENE COT~~~33NIST GROUND THREAT AGAINST INDIA 1. The ettached drsf-~ sty;idy of the Chinese Co~nunist Ground Threat to India, is forwarded for review. This assessment is based on the initial. DIA cantributian and also reflects sub- se~Iuent consul?tatio~.s between DIA end CIA staff specialists. 2. It is req.~.~:sted that your representatives meet with us at 1004, WednPSda;~, 1? April at CIA 33eadc~uarters to discuss this draft. USIB ta~?get cie;~e is 24 April, 25X1 Executive Officer National Estimates DISTRIBUTION B MCLITARY NSA, DIA reviews completed GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic S-E-C-R-E-T downgrading and declassification Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For RerJ~se 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R~100010018-0 S-E-C-R-E-T CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE A G E N C Y 9 Aprll 1963 Sr,~3~7ECT: CHIZ,:~,SE CCN]NFJNIST GROUI`1D THREAT AGAINST IPTDIA Z'he obi ect of this s ~,zdy is to examine the maximum offensive capabii.ities aver the next few months of Communist China's ground forces ag~einGt India aucl the Himalayan border states? It doQ6 not assess what the G"kinese could do were they to undertake a long- term program of roadbuilding and stockpiling nor does this study estimate Chinese Communist ~.ntPxltj.oxas . A. Chinese Ca~unis~t forces presently in the Sino-Indian border axea con3ist of 3 divisions, 13 regiments, 5 border defense regiments, and administrative and support troops totaling 120,000 men. A ma,~or offensive effort against India would require the GROtrn 1 Excluded from automatic S-E-C-R-E-T downgrac~it~g and declassification Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rye 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R(?~100010018-0 redeployment of several divisions from elsewhere, which tha Chinese could do without seriously jeopardizing their overall military posture. B. Supplies for Chinese Communist military forces in southwest Sinkiang and Tibet are transported by roadf~?om rail-served base de- pots at Chengtu in Szechwan, Lanchou, and. A'sia~~ung in Kansu, and in the vic:tnity of Urumchi in Sinkiang. From t~~ese railheads supplies are moved into the frontier area by motor transport over long and difficult routes, thus limiting the quantities of supplies why?.eh cn~a be clcjlivered. C. We estimate that the Chinese could deliver 1,600 tons per day. This rate of delivery] assuming the establishment of sub- stantial reserves in the forward areas would be sufficient on a continuing basis to satisfy the daily resupply requirements of 225!000 troops. Of the total supplies deliverable to Tibet and southwest Sinkiang, enough could be moved to forward areas all along the frontier to suppor~ an attacking force of approximately 175,000 men. We believe, however, that in the feasible avenues of attack, due to operational and logistic problems the Chinese would employ a force of 1239000 men. The tonnage of 1,600 tons per day also could support air operations consuming approximately 450 tons Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Ruse 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R0~100010018-0 daily. Attacks by 1751000 troops would tax China's motor transport capabilities and would be a heavy dra3.n on POL supplies. The de- livery of tonnages to support these operations over the period of a year would require approximately 6001000 tons of motor gasoline) about ~+0 percent of the total available in all of Ch2na in 1962. D. We believe that the main threat to India and the Y'imalayan border states consists of Ch3,nese capabilities to attack in Ladakh, through the border passes between Ladakh and Nepal into India,, into Nepal, and across Bhutan and the Northeast Frontier Agency ( ~~A) into northern Asss,m. We estimate the forces employed in these attacks would consist of 5 light infantry divisions) 15 independent infantry regiments) and 2 airborne battalions totaling 12,3000 troops. E, We estimate that the Chir~esel should they 1aux~ch the attacks described above, would have the following military objectives; a. In Ladakh, to extend Chinese control to include the capture of the important center of Leh. b. In the border area between Ladakh and Nepali to seize the Chinese territorial claim north of Jasimath. c. In Nepali to seize the major valley approaches and the city of Katmandu. ~--E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rel~e 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R0~00010018-0 d. In the eastt to occupy Ng'A a~:d that part of Assam north of the Brahmaputra River. To accomplish this the Chinese could either temporarily occupy the .key communications centers of Siliguri and Hasimara,, or effect a strong lodgement in the Gauhati area,. We believe the Chinese would be more likely to choose the latter. F. The next favorable periods for offensive operations begin in May for the avenues of approach west of Katmandu and in September for the avenues east of Katmandu. Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For ReJ~;se 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499RQ~100010018-0 1. With 2.6 million men the Chinese Communist army is the second largest after that of the USSR,, in the worlds and has praven~ under certain circutnstances~ to 'oe ax: efPect:.ve fighting force. There are sevw.rai factors, however1 which we believe are causing the Chinese Communist leaders concern as to the abil~.ty of ths~ir armed forces adequately to support G~,ina's foreign policies. Now virtually without supply and support from the USSR obsolescence and wear and tear has caused a decline in tk~e eP.fectivenvss of the armed forces equipmev~t and weapons. We believe that China's in- dustry cannot produce enough of the heavier and more complex equipment -- notably aircraft and naval ships and possibly armored fighting veh3.cles -- to maintain present equ2pment levels. Peiping also probably sees aevex?al Fituations~ in addition to the border dispute with Indian as requiring a high level of effective military preparedness: i.e.~ the situations in Laos' Vietnam, the Taiwan Strait and North k~orea. Rven the Sino-Soviet dispute will probably place additional demands on Chinese military dispositions and capa- bilities~ since one of the attributes of China's new "independence" -3- S-E-C-R-y-T Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Re ease 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R0,~,~ 00010018-0 S-E-C-R-E-T from the USSR will be the need to watch over the long Sino-Soviet border more closely than to date. 2. China's troop dispositions are directed toward coastal and border defense. A secondary mission far all units is internal security, and, in some areas such as Tibet, Chia function has been the main occupation of the units stationed there. The Chinese now have in the Sino-Indian border area 3 divis3.onsi13 regiments, ands, 5 border defense regiments, totaling 12x,000 men.' Eleven artnies=~ are stationed in Worthy east, and central C~zina and could be drawn upon to reinforce the frontier area. A ma,~ar offensive effort against India would require the redeployment of several divisions, but,. under present circutpstances, the Chinese Cammux~ists cou7.d do this without seriousljr jeopardizing China's overa3.1 defe~tse posture. ~./ These forces are composed of 3 infantry divisions, l1 in- dependent infantry regime~ats,1 cavalry regiment, 1 artil- lery regiment, and 6 b order defense regiments. The Chinese Communist "army' resembles in size a US carps, its basic tactical components consisting of three iuFantry divisions< Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R00~0~1,00010018-0 S-E-C-~t -E-T II. LOGISTICS 3? Supplies for Chinese Communist military forces ixz south- west Sinkiang and Tibet are transported by road from rail-served base depots at Chengtu in Szechwan Lanchou~ and Hsiating in Kansu and in the vicinity of Urumehi in Sinkiang. The facilities at these railheads are capable of handling the supply requirements of the maximum forces deployahle in the Sino-Indian border area. 4. From the Chengtu transshipment point supplies are delivered to the Changtu-Pangta area via the Szechwan-Tibet highway for dis- tribution to Forces located in eastern Tibet and slang the frontier Pram Lima west to Mtlin. From Lanchou and Hsiatung supplies are moved over the Tsinghai -Tibet road to the Nagchhu Dzong and Yangpaching distribution depots serving west, central., and southern. Tibet. From the Urumchi railhead goods move by road to a supply base at Kashgar and from there to units in the Yarkand and Ladakh areas. The Kashgar base probably also gives some support to troops lacated in extreme western Tibet. 5. Under optimum conditions a total of 2000 tons per day could be delivered to the military subdistricts i.n southwest Sinkiang and Tibet, This tonnage, however, is unlikely to be Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For R I~ye se 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R~0 100010018-0 achieved during all. periods cf the year 'Decease of cl'.m~3tic factors. Therefore, it is estimated that the maximum sustained tonnage deliver- able to supply distribution points in Tibet and southwest Sinkiang is 1,600 tans per day. The attacks described in this study would tax China's motor transport capabilities and be a heavyl although not insugpor'ca,bl..e, drain on POL supplies. The delivery of tannagPs to support these operations aver the periad of a year would require approximately 600,000 tons of motor gasoline, about ~+0 percent of the total available in all of China in 1962, An effort of this size coulcl not be supported if China, were involved in military activity elsewhere. 6. This rate of delivery, assuming; the esta~blishmezat of sub- stantial reserves in the forward areas, is sufficient an a con- tinuing basis to satisfy the daily resupply requirements of 225,000 troops. Of the total supplies deliverable to Tibet and southwest Sinkiang, enough could be moved to forward areas all along the frontier to support an attacking force of approximately ?75,000 men. However, we bel~?eve that the operational and logistic prob- lems encountered in feasible avenues of attack are such that the Chinese would employ a force of 123,000 men. In addition to meeting the above ground-farce needs, the tonnage of 1,600 tons S-E-C--R-E-T Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Ree 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R0,,~0 00010018-0 S-E-C-R-E-T per day-also could support air operations consuming approximately x+50 tons daily. III. CLIMATES TACTICS] AND EQUIPMENT 7. Although severe s~rinter weather is an important factor in the conduct of military operations along the Sino-Indian border, low temperature and snow in themselves are unlikely completely to prohibit activity. More serious prablems arise fry melting snow and ice and heavier precipitation in spring and summer. Mid-October to mid-December is the .most favorable period for operations all along the border and road conditions will be at their maximum capacity during this time of the years although in the western segment of the frontier as far east as Nepal,fevorable conditions may tSegiti as early as Nlay. 8. In the weaterra. half of the frontier,, which encompasses Iadakhj the high central Tibetan plateau and most of Neprzlr the spring is a difficult season because melting snows make streams unfordable and flat-floored valleys are often flooded. The summer in this sector is generally favorable far operations except in Nepali where heavy rains from the southwest monsoon cause land- slides and swollen streams particularly along the access routes -? Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Ruse 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R(~100010018-0 from Ind3.a. From December to March temperatures are severely low and windsg occasional]y reaching gale force, not only make the cold difficu~.t to endure but also fill the air wi~~h fine penetra- ting dust. Snowstorms and blizzards are frequent, especially in the mountains. 9. In the eastern segment of the frontier, extending from eastern Nepal through Sikkim, Phutan, and Northeast Frontier Agency (NEFA) and, for purposes of this discussion, includi~-g Lhasa to the north and a narrow belt of the Brahmaputra River valley to the south, road conditions during the spring months of April and May wi:~l be only fair. Flooding, unfordable stream,and landslides may obstruct routes for short periods. June to September are the v,*orst months for operations in the eastern segment of the frontier; roads in the Brahmaputra R9.ver valley and in the Lhasa area may be flooded and in NF~'A, particularly in the eastern party the southwest monsoon will reduce road capaci~uies to a minimum. 10. In the Himalayan region the physiographic effects on operations are enormous, and the harsh environment requires modi- fications in organization,, equipments and tactics. The use of trucks, armar~ and artillery is limited by the inadequate road Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Re,~se 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R 0(,,100010018-0 network. Maintenance problems are also increased, Troops tare easily, combat loads must be reduced] and daily march times and distances must be shortened, Animal tranport and porters are re- lied upon heavily. Logistics, communications, and the control of large units in coordinated operations are difficu~.t, 11. Tactical movements require mare detailed preparations than those at lower altitudesa Reconnaissance and security on the march require special attention. Tactical operations will rarely take place at an echelon above that of the regiment. The regiment and the battalion are the units usually employed along a single axis against a single tactical objective. Operations are characterized by infiltration, ambushes, wide flanking movements, and sudden concentrations for specific missions. 12. We believe the s?a;andard organization of the Chinese Communist infantry division has been modified to cont?orm to the decentralized operational requirements of mountain operations During the recent fighting on the border the Chinese used 120 mm mortars, 76,.2 mountain guns' and recoilless rifles. The largest artillery piece likely tq be employed south of the Himalayas is the 122 mm howitzer. Although tanks have been reported in Ladakh and in theC humh~. Valley: there is no evidence that the Chinese have -9- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rel~,~e 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000010018-0 S?E-C-P. ?,E-T large numbers of tanks in Tibet. We believe that only in southern Sikkim could tanks be employed in other than an assault gun and artillery role. It would be extremely difficult for the Chinese to move more than a few tanks on to the Indian. plain, 13. The Chinese could employ airborne forces to seise an airfield required far resupply of advancing ground forces, or to prevent Indian redeployment, or to leap-frog Indian defensive positionso We estimate that not mare than two battalions could be dropped in a single lift. Airborne troops could be staged at airfields a,t Kashgar, Hatien, Soche, Kaerhmu, Chengtua and Kunming. IV. AVENUES OF ATTACK l~. Although the maximum number of ground farces that the Chinese could employ and support logistically in simultaneous attacks all slang the Sina-Indian border is estimated to be 175,000, we believe that, in. the areas from which the moire attacks against India and the Himala.ya~a border states might come, a maximum force of 123,000 men is likely to be put into action. This force would consist of 5 light infantry divisions, 15 infantry regiments' and 2 airborne battalions. The attacks described in the following paragraphs are estimated at the greatest strength that logistic limitations and terrain restrictions ~r111 allow. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rae se 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R~100010018-0 15. These attacksx rare believe, areuid r~vn the following mili- tary ob,~ectives; a. In Ladakh ?~u e,~tension of Chia~ese control to include the cap~~ure of the important com~.f.catians center and airbase at Leh. b. ZA the border area between I~,dakh and l~e~:l to seize the Chinese territorial claim north of Joshimath which would be a psychological threat to New Delhi. c. In Nepal to facilitate the eventual occupation of the country by seizure of tale ma;~or valley approaches and the capture of the city of Katmandu in order to forestall Indian inter~%ention. d. In the East the effective occupation of t~-~e N~'A aad that part of Assam north of the Brahmaputra River. To accomalish this objective the Chinese could either temporarily occupy the key communics,tians centers of Siligziri and Hasimars;~ or effect a strong lodgement in the C~ui:~ati area. Of the two, we believe that the Chinese would choose to establish the Gauhatfi saL~,Ent because it would not only effectively deny the Indians comm~aicatiox~s with northern Assam and at the same time greatly assist the Chinese ad- vances into central and eastern P~'A, but also would be militarily the easier and less costly venture. # We estimate that the occupation of Siliguri and I~simara would require two standard divisions and two light divisions. These forces would.ba additional to the figure of 123,000 troops and would bring the total attacking force to approximately 175,400. s-E-c_R-~-~ Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Re:~se 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R0~;100010018-0 S~E-C -r', -E-T 16. Ladakh. In Ladakh the Chinese Communists completed a road from Sinkiang in 1957, From this roads they have constructed a num- ber of feeder roads, including one in the Wiest that rosily parallels the main roads which permit the movement of troops and supplies to outposts.. In many places the valleys provide natural roadbeds that require little cona~ruction or maintenance to be made useable far motor transport. The approach routes from Ladakh converge on Leh across the Karakoram and Lada'h Ranges; through the Saser Pass (17,48Q feet) to Panamik from the north and via Chushul and Ssyok from the southeast. Of these, the lattera a motorable route, is by far the more favorable avenue of approach. From Leh the road twists across two great mounta~.n ranges to Srinagar, the major Indian ~-ili- tars base in Kashmir. l7. The road network leading from Sink;I:m~ and western Tibet into Ladakh will support an estimated seven light infantry divisions. This .capability exists for operations within Ladakh and earth of the frontier; for operations into Indian territory, howevera this support capability drops as motorable roads give way to pack trails and less than 7 divisions could be supported. Therefore the magnitude of the Chinese threat in this region is limited by the logistic difficulties Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Relse 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R100010018-0 S-E-C-R?-E T that would be encountered in Indian territory, rather than by the number of troops that could be concentrated and supported on the Chinese aide of the frontier. 18. The Chinese could launch the following attacks in the a. One infantry regiment could move from Daulit beg-oldi through the Saser Pass to Panamik (120 miles), but since the pass is closed from December to May, the resupply of this regiment during the winter months would have to be accomplished. by airdrop ar by road from Chusul. b. Given sufficient engineer support for road improvement, I~ light infantry division could be supported from the Chusul area, with ~ regiments advancing to Leh {100 miles) and 1 regiment supporting the northern thrust to Panamik by advancing up the Shyok River valley to the area of Tirit {100 miles). c. Because of logistic limitations and the need to improve road systems as they advance, Chinese military objectives would prob- ably be limited to an extension of their control of the Ladakh area to include the capture of the key communications center of Leh. We do not believe that the Chinese, in their initial attack, could ad- vance beyond Leh. - 13 - S-E-C-R E-T Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rise 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499RQ~100010018-0 ?~ -C-R-~' ?T 19. The Bardpr Passes. Between T,,e.dakh and Nepal. Along the .w..,..~._..,.,,,.~..am.,,,~,.,~ a..~..,..............,~~,,.,.~........~.......,~..,.~..,....... border between t;7e Chun+a:~ area in sca~heru i,adak'c and Nepal there are several passes through which Chinese farces-could attack. Of these, the best avenues of approach, although they are r.-czrro~a defiles sub3ect to blockage by snow during the winter months, are through Shipki Pass {15,x+00 feet), Mana Pass (17,880 feet}, Niti Pass {16,600 feet), and Lipulek Pass (16,750 feet). 20. After May, two infantry regiments could be supported in az~.d ~~dvan:,e thro~~?ghh uhipki Pass to the vicinity of Chini (~5 miles) . could be moved T3ot ~ror.~ than t~xree re a7ments~through Mana and Nit1. Passes to 3a,.:iznath (appraxi.mate'y ~+5 miles); and two regiments through Lipulek Pass to t.e ge7~era,~_ area of Dharchula (20 miles} . Advances beyond Ch:~?ai, Josimath, ar~d Dha?^chula could not be logistically supported until the Chinese had improved the existing trai]..s to accommodate one-guarter~ton vehicles. Further, we believe that because the Chinese probably would be unable to resupply by air during the winter months, the regiments would, therefore, be forced to withdraw north of the passes. 21. N~e~al. The Chinese have built roads to within a few m11es of the Sina Nepalese border apposite the five ma,~or entry routes and they have good lateral communications along the entire frontier Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For R~se 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R~100010018-0 S E-C-R.-E T from the Shigatse- G~.Ttok road west to Tia~~;ri Dzong. Trails lead from these roads to all the passes, many of which are Dpen for much of the winter. 22. It is estimated that the Chinese could airdrop up to 2 battalions to seize the Katmandu airfield, and could then within 5 to 7 days airland up to 1 lightly-equipped infantry division. They could support this force by air indefinitely, provided they retained tactical air superiority in the area. We estimate that by the utilization of pack animals and the mobi~.ization of all avail- able Tibetan and Nepalese porters the Chinese could support attacks by one infantry regiment through each of the following passes: through Naralagna Fass to 13a~an~; through Kore Pass to Dana; through Kyriong Pass to Nawakot; through Kodari Pass to Dhulikhel; and through Rakha Pass to Dingla., 23. We estimate that the Chinese could not occupy Nepal up to the Indian frontier, and their tenure of northern Nepal would be entirely dependent on stockpiling, their ability to sustain porterage operations through the northern passes in winter, and the retention of air supremacy over the Katmandu area. 15 S-E-C-R E T Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rse 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R~100010018-0 2~+. ThP Sikkim Area. There are two converging avenues of approach from the Chumbi Valley-through Sikkim to Siliguri. One, a motorable road, leads t~~.rough Natu Psss (1,500 :Feet) via Gangtok and Kalimpong; the other, an unimproved road, crosses the frontier through Jelep Pass ~oia~ing the former at Kalimpong. 25. We estimate that the Chinese could attack through the Natu anal Jelep Passes with two light infantry divisions and advance to Gangtok (34 miles) without improving the roads. If the road capac- ities between the frontier and Gangtok were increased, which would require an estimated 6 to 10 weeks, a total of 3 light infantry divisions and 2 standard infantry divisions with armor could be sup- ported in an advance to Siliguri (100 miles), In the in3.tial attack not more than two airborne vattalions could be dropped in rear of the forward Indian defensive positions. 26. If prepared to viGlate Bhutanese neutrality, the Chinese could turn the establiEhed Indian defensive positions in Sikkim by making an initial attack down the Torsa River valley which generally parallels the Bhutan-Sikkim border. -16- Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rise 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R~100010018-0 2j~ Lr;t,:~stic support of the larger f'aLees rec~uir.E:d to hold the ~:x~~osed Siligu:^i posi~Lion during the wi~.lter moaiths w~~uld be extremely di:Fficult. U?.~.r ss stocks of supplies were captured or airfields secured to support a:~_rlift operations a withdrawal to tha Dar,~eelj.ng area and a reduction in strength to not more than one division would be necessary. ~8. Western Bhutan.. An uadet~eloped trail goes from Pari Dzong in Tibet through western B~.utan anal ~a:tns the raid co~ecting Para Dzong to Hasitnara. We estimate that the Chinese could advance to Para Dzong with one division wi.tht~ut i~iprnving the trail. If the trail were improved to permit the movement of vehicles this division could be supported in an adva~lce to Hasimara. Overland logistic support of this division in the Fiasimara area during the winter would be possible provided stockpiling were carried out promptly. We estimate that the Chinese could employ up to two alr_ borne battalions to seize the airfield at Hasimara at the same time that the infantry division mated out of the Himalayan foothills. 29. Eastern Bhutan and Western NE'~'A. There are two converging routes which cross Bhutan and #orm an approach to Assam: one from Lhakhang Dz~g to Gauhati via Lhuntsi Dzong and Dewangi.ri; the other from Bum La to Gauhati via Towan~, Tashigang Dzong, and Dewangiri. 17 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Re,~,ease 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R608100010018-0 S-E-C-R-E-T 30. Tn an advance through Bhutan the Chinese initially could support 2 infantry regiments at Tashigang Dzong (50 miles), and 2 infantry regiments at Lhurltsi Dzong (30 miles). After road improve- ments, the Chinese could maintain 3 light infantry divisions within Bhutan, or could advance to Gauhati (145 miles) with at least 2 divisions. The Chinese co~zld drop two a~.x~bornc battaliox~ at the northern end of the Gauhati bridge, to destroy the bridge and delay Tndian reix~i'or. cement . This attack into the Gauhati area could be supported by a diversionary attack against Indian defenses in Sikkim. 3l. Tn northwest NEFA there is a motorable road which connects Bum La with Tezpur and T~?rich passes through Towar. and Bomdi La. We estimate that, if the Chinese were to repeat t't~.~;3.r attack from Bum La to Bo!~1i La (~0 mi~.~PS) they cauld support two lig=:~?~: infantry divisions at Bomdi La and advance with one of these divisions to Tezpur. 32. Central and Eastern NE'FA. There are two avenues of approach across the McMahon Line into 1VEFA: in central NEFA from the border village to Long~u south through the Subansiri River galley; and in eastern NEFA from Lima through the Luhit River valley via Walong. - 18 - Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rise 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499F~QQ~0100010018-0 33. A penetration in the cexxtral NEFa sectcir would be restricted to a distance over; which porter supply lines could be operated. We estimate that, at a maximum, the Chinese could support two regiments in the Subansiri River ttalley up to 3C or 40 riles soui:h of the border. In the eastern part of the NEFA the Chiu.ese could initially support an al;uack by one light j.nfantr-f division 1n the Luhit P.iver valley as .far west ao Tepang. SnbsequEnt to t;~e development of a road to iepang, whieh would require an estimated 8 to 10 weeks, the Chinese could support up to 3 light infantry divisions i.n this axes and ad- vance to Balamag:.Z~+ni with l of these divisions. 34. We estimate that the alvjective of a major attack in ~'he fast would be to disrupt Indian communications with Assam either by seizing the important communications centers of Siiige.~ri and ~~asimera, or by establishing s salient in the Gauhati area north of the Brahmaputra River.. If the Chinese could improve the roads through Bhutan with sufficient speed to sustain their attack to Gauhati, they probably could stockpile sufficient supplies in this salient to support their troops throughout the winter period. Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 (C7 APPENDIX 1 TO ANNEX A: ESTIMATED PERSONT~EI, AND MATERIEL OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST INFA1~2'RY DIVISION (LIGHT) AND THE IIV'DEPEI~TDENT INFANTRY REGIMENT AS FOUND IN TIBET J ~ ITEM __~ HQ ~ AND ; STAFF{ ,~ CO i 1 ; SIG RCN EDIG BN _ CO _ BN '~ AT ~ BN ~ _- ~ AA_~1W BTd BAa ~ OR.D'+ Pi,T ~ ~ ARTY ~ INF ~REGT REGT O~'~'icers ~ 21O g ~ 41 10 39 2 8 X1 5~+ i 64 57 1 6 ~ 1 ! 207 i 2 1 0 ~ Enlisted 710 13 + g 2 3 1 +3 3 37 37 37 ~ 9 , ~ Gun, 76.2mm, Mtn ~ ~ ' 2~ 6 Gun, AT 5T 7 mm i j 12, Mortar, 16O-mm ~ 12 Mo~a-r, 120-mm Mortar, 82-mtn. ` 1 I ~ Rc1 Rfl, 57-~ I Rc1 Rf1, 75-mm RL, 9o-mm ~ AAMG, 12.7-mm 2~+ HMG, 7..62-mm M L~dG, 7-62-mm g 18 a SIYIG, 7.62-mm 112 18 1$ 112 ~+2 77 i ! ~+ 203 Carbine, 7.62-rmn 225 116 213 36~- 297 ~33 11,075 Pistol, 7.62-mm 169 7 36 i 7 31 ~ ~+5 2 ; 1 ` 1~6 Flamethrower Unl~ T~k, Cargo, 6x6 l2 { 2~- ~ Trk, Cargo, ~+x2 1 ~ ~ 12 Trk, ~-ton, ~x4 ~ 2 ~ Motorcycle 4 2 ~ 5 2 ~ Bicycle Cart ~ j ~ 15 Unk Unk Ht~rse,M-ule, or Camel }--135+_ ~___~ ______ ~ ! ~ 1 Strengths above are at 144j~o TOE. Units in Tibet are estimated to be at 85 TC strength. Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 (S) APPENDIX 2 TO :}.NIITEX A: AIRCRAFT CHARACTERISTICS AND LIFT CAPACITIES OF THE 13TH CCF~ AIR DIVISION=l TO SUPPORT OPERATIONS IN THE SINO-INDfiAN FROP3TIER REGION I1~TI"..3~1L LIFT SUSTAINED OPERATIONS ~ CARG-0 TONS TROOPS CARGO (TONS Ti~flOPS ,, AIPCRAFI' TYPE=~ RANGE AIR- AIR- AIR- ATR- .AIR- AIR- AIR- ATR- R1~D~US LANDED DROPPED LANDED DROi~PED LANDED DROPPED LANDED DROPPED IL-12~COACH I,6O0~ 720 57 ~Q 39? ~ 50~ X32 35.6 2~+.9 37-5 270 IL-l~+f CRATE 1, 600 H 720 30.E 21.3 26g 230 lg.o 13.3 168 1~+ ' .W C-~+6~CGMMANDO 1,600 a N c~ 720(est.) 133.9 3.$ 1,120 896 8~+.0 58.8 700 X60 ~ w TarAr~s 21.3 1~~Y5 1:893 1,558 138.6 97.0 1,183 97~+ Only the 13th CCAF Air Division is considered trained and available far operations in the Sino-Indian border Area. The above data is based on 8Q~ serviceability for the initial lift and 50~a serviceability for sustained operations. For single aircraft operations the following factors may be used: IL-12~COACH and IL-1~~CRATE, x,750 lbs. of cargo or 2~+ troops a~.rlanded and 3,325 lbs. of cargo or 1$ troops airdropped; C-~+6/COMMANDO, 12,000 lbs. of cargo ar 50 troops airlanded and $,x+00 lbs. of cargo or ~+0 troops airdropped. Approved For Release 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499R000100010018-0 Approved For Rase 2003/07/31 :CIA-RDP80S01499F~Q~100010018-0 S-ME ; - ~~. ...-i APPENDIX 1 TO AT3P11,'X B: DAILY RES~'PLY RE~!tT.IrR}~~NI'S Ft7R THE NESE C0T~7MtlI~TIST INa'1~i?rri'a''i'1r DiV3SIGPJ (S'?'.f?~.~tD