Economic Intelligence Weekly

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 48
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 2, 2005
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: June 29, 1978
• Content Type: CABLE

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Economic Intelligence
Weekly Review
29 June 1978
Secret
ER EIVVR 78-026
29 Pine 19M
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW
29 June 1978
Japan: Yen Refuses To Stop Climbing
Upward pressure on the yen almost certainly will continue because of
Tokyo's inability to cut its massive current account surplus or boost GNP
growth and because of large US trade deficits.
Japan: Learning To Live With 200-Mile Zones
The world's leading fishing nation appears to be adjusting effectively to
the expansion of 200-mile fishery zones, with the slump in catches in
distant waters being offset by a higher take nearer home.
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Soviet Defense Spending: Trends and Prospects
Real military outlays grew at an average annual rate of 4 to 5 percent in
1967-77, according, to the latest CIA study of the ruble cost of Soviet
defense.
Notes
EC Leaders Ponder Exchange Rate Cooperation
Poland Chops Trade Deficit With West
South Korea Further Liberalizes Imports
Statistics
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ER EIWR 78-026
29 June 1978
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Articles
JAPAN: YEN REFUSES TO STOP CLIMBING
The Japanese face a protracted period of upward pressure on the yen because of
Tokyo's inability to cut the current account surplus or boost GNP growth and because
of continuing large US trade deficits. The likely announcement on 15 July of a sharply
increased Japanese trade surplus could lead to heavy exchange market speculation just
as the Summit talks get off the ground. Further pre-Summit speculation may force
Prime Minister Fukuda to make a strong pitch to the United States at the Bonn
meetings for concerted action to stabilize the yen-dollar rate.
Recent Yen Appreciation
Since early June the Japanese yen has appreciated 5 percent against the dollar,
hitting a postwar high of 206 yen to the dollar. Reflecting this extraordinary rise, spot
trading volume in Tokyo has been running at double the normal rate. So far, the yen is
the only major currency under substantial upward pressure; the important European
currencies have appreciated less than 1 percent since the beginning of the month.
Recent yen appreciation comes on top of a 30-percent increase over the oast 18
months.
The Underlying Factors
The yen appreciation over the past two weeks sterns from Japan's inability to
reduce its current account surplus. Tokyo's foreign exchange market was relatively
quiet in May, and the yen depreciated slightly as Tokyo announced that the April
trade surplus was only two-thirds of the astounding March surplus. In addiiton, the
Carter-Fukuda talks in early May produced no new US pressure on Japan, which the
market read as a US vote of confidence in Tokyo's game plan of 7-percent GNP
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Weekly Review
are welcome. For the text, they may be directed to
29 June 1978
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Yen and Deutsche Mark Appreciation
Against the US Dollar
110
108
106
104
102
100
Index: May 1978 =100
Yen
Deutsche Mark
11111
1 2 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27
May June
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growth and a one-third cut in the current account surplus in fiscal year 1978 (which
began 1 April). Tokyo also played up, as a major breakthrough, the statement that the
United States and Japan would improve communication on exchange rate policies.
Starting in early June, however, market confidence began to erode. Japanese
press stories early in the month quoted Ministry of Finance officials as acknowledging
that bigger monthly trade surpluses were ahead. Data released about 15 June showed
the first 10-day June export receipts well above the May level. Partly to slow the rising
yen, Prime Minister Fukuda publicly blamed offshore inflation for the rise in Japanese
dollar export prices and receipts.
The single biggest factor in bolstering demand for yen was the 19 June
announcement that the May current account surplus had rebounded to a $17.5 billion
annual rate from its $15 billion pace in April. Moreover, traders realized that the May
surplus failed by $500 million to $600 million to fully reflect the situation?oil imports
were artifically high in anticipation of the new crude oil import tax scheduled for 1
June.
Limited Response by Tokyo
Japanese policy response to the appreciation thus far has been limited to small-
scale intervention and jawboning. The Bank of japan purchased no more than $100
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million in any one day to smooth rather than to prevent the upward yen movement.
Bank of Japan Director General Morinaga has threatened large-scale dollar purchases
if the yen approaches 200 to the dollar.
Outlook For Continued Pressure
Upward pressure on the yen is likely to persist at least until the mid-July Summit.
In part, this reflects a postrecession seasonal phenomena?the pre-Summit concern by
dealers that Japan will be the target of international pressure because of its massive
trade surpluses. In 1977, for example, the yen appreciated 2 percent in the weeks
preceding the London Summit. Preliminary trade data point to another large surplus
in June; the June figures will be announced shortly before the Bonn meetings.
Beyond the Summit, almost nobody expects a dramatic turnaround in Japan's
current account surplus. Japanese officials have told US policymakers in private that
the 1978 surplus will exceed last year's $11 billion. The trading companies are now
projecting a $15-20 billion current account surplus this year. A resurgence of import
volume in unlikely because (a) high oil imports in May will retard deliveries at least
until late 1978 and (b) GNP growth will probably slip from its high January-March
level. According to press reports, Japanese economic decisionmakers rejected further
stimulative action as unnecessary at the 23 June meeting of economic cabinet
ministers.
About the only factor easing pressure for additional appreciation is slumping
export volume. April-June export shipments will fall below the January-March results
by several percent.
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Constant upward pressure on the yen is likely to prompt Fukuda's advisers?par-
ticularly Minister of International Trade and Industry Komoto?to push the Prime
Minister to lobby the United States at the Summit for firmer action on exchange rates.
Tokyo belives that Washington is more concerned with instability in European
exchange markets than with shifts in the yen-dollar rate.
JAPAN: LEARNING TO LIVE WITH 200-MILE ZONES
Japan, the world's leading fishing nation, appears to be adjusting effectively to
the expansion of 200-mile fishing zones. The slump in catches in distant waters has
been offset by increased operations near Japan. Restrictions on fish imports have been
eased, and nearly 200 joint fishing ventures with 50 foreign countries have been
established to further ensure the supply of fishery products. Nevertheless, several
major problems persist. Fish prices within Japan rose 15 percent last year and are
continuing to climb. In the last 12 months, 14,000 fishermen in the distant water fleet
have lost their jobs.
1977 Catch Up
Despite the proliferation of 200-mile maritime boundaries in recent years?over
50 countries have established 200-mile zones since 1 January 1976?Japanese
fishermen caught 10.70 million tons in 1977, a slight increase from the 10.66 million
tons taken in 1976. The establishment of a 200-mile fishing zone around Japan on 1
July 1977 helped Japanese fishermen take almost 8.1 million tons in home waters last
year, an increase of 340,000 tons over 1976, which offset a loss of 300,000 tons in
distant-water operations. Coastal sardine and saury fisheries were especially produc-
tive. For the first time, the sardine catch, most of which is reduced to fish meal for
animal feed, exceeded 1 million tons.
Japan: Fish Catch
1974
1975 1976
Million Tons
1977
Total
10.81
10.54 10.66
10.70
Home or open water
7.11
7.04 7.72
8.06
Within 200 miles of other countries
3.70
3.50 2.94
2.64
Percent
Catch taken within 200 miles of other countries
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Constant upward pressure on the yen is likely to prompt Fukuda's advisers?par-
ticularly Minister of International Trade and Industry Komoto?to push the Prime
Minister to lobby the United States at the Summit for firmer action on exchange rates.
Tokyo belives that Washington is more concerned with instability in European
exchange markets than with shifts in the yen-dollar rate.
JAPAN: LEARNING TO LIVE WITH 200-MILE ZONES
Japan, the world's leading fishing nation, appears to be adjusting effectively to
the expansion of 200-mile fishing zones. The slump in catches in distant waters has
been offset by increased operations near Japan. Restrictions on fish imports have been
eased, and nearly 200 joint fishing ventures with 50 foreign countries have been
established to further ensure the supply of fishery products. Nevertheless, several
major problems persist. Fish prices within Japan rose 15 percent last year and are
continuing to climb. In the last 12 months, 14,000 fishermen in the distant water fleet
have lost their jobs.
1977 Catch Up
Despite the proliferation of 200-mile maritime boundaries in recent years?over
50 countries have established 200-mile zones since 1 January 1976?Japanese
fishermen caught 10.70 million tons in 1977, a slight increase from the 10.66 million
tons taken in 1976. The establishment of a 200-mile fishing zone around Japan on 1
July 1977 helped Japanese fishermen take almost 8.1 million tons in home waters last
year, an increase of 340,000 tons over 1976, which offset a loss of 300,000 tons in
distant-water operations. Coastal sardine and saury fisheries were especially produc-
tive. For the first time, the sardine catch, most of which is reduced to fish meal for
animal feed, exceeded 1 million tons.
Japan: Fish Catch
1974
1975 1976
Million Tons
1977
Total
10.81
10.54 10.66
10.70
Home or open water
7.11
7.04 7.72
8.06
Within 200 miles of other countries
3.70
3.50 2.94
2.64
Percent
Catch taken within 200 miles of other countries
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High Unemployment, Rising Prices
Despite the increase in last year's catch, the dislocations caused by the restrictions
on distant-water fishing operations have resulted in rising unemployment. About
14,1000 fisherman lost their jobs during the past year, roughly 3 percent of the total
number of Japanese involved in the fishing industry. Salmon fishermen, in particular,
were hard hit by the recent agreement signed with the Soviet Union. Under the
agreement, Japanese fishermen will be able to take only 42,500 tons of salmon in 1978,
that is, one-half their 1976 catch. As a result, about 4,000 jobs have been lost.
Most unemployed fishermen want to remain in the industry, but the job outlook is
bleak as countries such as the United States and the Soviet Union reduce quotas. The
high visibility and political clout of the fishing industry have forced Tokyo to take
quick action to ease the strains of unemployment. Fishermen who have lost their jobs
because of international agreements are eligible for special unemployment allowances
of up to $454 per month for two years after their standard eight-month unemploy-
ment insurance runs out. They also can obtain retraining in other industries at
government expense.
Another major problem facing Tokyo is rising retail prices. Fish prices to the
consumer jumped about 15 percent overall last year, and the price of some of the
more widely consumed species such as pollack increased by nearly 50 percent. Higher
operating costs for distant-water operations?especially licensing fees in newly
established 200-mile zones?plus rising domestic demand are the main reasons for the
price increase. Various consumer groups complain, however, that Japanese fishing
companies are withholding their catch from market to drive up prices.
More Joint Ventures and Increased Imports
Since fish products accounted for roughly one-half of the animal protein in the
average Japanese diet in 1977?more than in any other developed country?Japan is
committed to maintaining its current level of fish production. To ensure the future
vitality of the industry, the Japanese have established nearly 200 joint fishing
companies in some 50 countries. About 40 of these?of which 30 are jointly owned
with US interests?operate along North America's Pacific coast. In addition, more
than 100 joint companies fish waters in Asia and Oceania, 30 operate off the African
coast, and 30 work the waters of Latin America.
The joint companies are capitalized at $150 million, more than one-half of which
is Japanese money. These companies, using leased or purchased vessels, engage in the
full range of fishing operations, including fishing, processing, and marketing. In some
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cases, they also are involved in research, pearl cultivation, and fish farming. The local
partner usually takes about one-half of the catch for its own use, while the Japanese
partner sells its share in Western or Japanese markets.
Japan's greater emphasis on joint ventures has resulted in increasing fish imports.
Fish imports totaled $2.2 billion in 1977, nearly double the 1975 level, compared with
exports of only $550 million. Moreover, for the first time US-Japanese fish trade
showed a $50 million surplus in favor of the United States, compared with an annual
average deficit of $120 million during 1972-76; the surplus is attributable mainly to
Japan: Fish and Shellfish Trade
Million US $
0 1.-- I 1 I 1
1970 71 72 73 74 75 76
Imports
Exports
77
US exports of crab, herring, and salmon. Imports should continue to grow as Tokyo has
recently eased import quota restrictions for certain fish products and lowered tariffs
on some others. Further action along these lines is under consideration in Tokyo.
Imports supplied roughly 15 percent of Japan's fish consumption requirements in
1977.
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Other Options
In addition to increasing imports and expanding joint ventures, Tokyo is taking
other measures to guarantee its fish supply. The Fishery Agency of the Japanese
Ministry of Agriculture has earmarked $750 million to set up artifical fish habitats in
coastal areas and increase the number of fish farming centers from 10 to 17 by 1980.
In addition, a concerted effort is being made to increase efficiency in fish processing
and thus reduce the waste of any potential food material.
Finally, Japan is placing more emphasis on harvesting species of fish not formerly
caught because of high processing costs or the lack of consumer demand. Chief among
these is krill, a small shrimp-like crustacean rich in protein and primarily found in
Antarctic waters. In the past, krill fishing has been limited because of the great
distance involved and the high processing costs of removing the shells and freezing
before the body decomposes. Currently, Japan harvests only about 10,000 to 15,000
tons of krill a year. Marine biologists claim the krill population could support a catch
of at least several million tons a year.
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SOVIET DEFENSE SPENDING: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS
This article presents the conclusions and major points of CIA's latest estimate
(prepared by the Office of Strategic Research) of the ruble cost of Soviet defense
activities, Estimated Soviet Defense Spending: Trends and Prospects.
Our estimates of the ruble cost of Soviet defense activities during the period
between 1967 and 1977 indicate that:
? Soviet defense spending, defined to correspond to US budgetary accounts
and measured in constant 1970 prices, grew at an average annual rate of
about 4 to 5 percent, from 35 billion to 40 billion rubles in 1967 to 53 billion
to 58 billion rubles in 1977.
? Defined more broadly, as Soviet practice might require, defense spending
grew from 40 billion to 45 billion rubles in 1967 to 58 billion to 63 billion
rubles in 1977.*
* This broader definition embraces additional costs that the Soviets are likely to classify as spending for defense. These
include expenditures for internal security troops, certain civil defense activities, military stockpiling, foreign military
assistance, and space programs that are operated by the military in the USSR but by the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration in the United States.
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Estimated Soviet Expenditures for Defense
BILLION RUBLES
70
60
50
40
30
20
\\\\
Cons_taat_1214. Prices
Announced Defense Expenditures
10 kCurrent Price5)
1967 69 71 73 75 77
Defense spending as it
might be defined by .the Soviets.
Defense spending as defined .for
SiS comparison with US accounts.
1 Includes additional costs associated with internal security troops,
certain space and civil defense activities, and military stockpiles.
576459 6-78
Economic Impact
The defense effort has had a substantial impact on the Soviet economy:
? During the period between 1967 and 1977, defense spending consumed an
almost constant share of Soviet GNP-11 to 12 percent or 12 to 13 percent,
depending on how defense spending is defined.
? Defense investment consumed about one-third of the final product of
machinebuilding and metalworking, the branch of industry that produces
investment goods as well as military hardware.
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? Between 65 and 75 percent of the males reaching draft age were
conscripted into the Soviet armed forces. Uniformed military servicemen
and civilians working for the Ministry of Defense constituted 3 to 4 percent
of the total labor force.
? Defense takes a large share of the economy's best scientific, technical, and
managerial talent and large amounts of high-quality materials, components,
and equipment.
The armed forces accounted directly for a small share of total Soviet energy
consumption. Less than 5 percent of the refined petroleum and less than 5 percent of
the heat and electricity consumed by the USSR went to the armed forces.
Composition and Allocation
Ruble estimates provide insight into the resource composition of the Soviet
defense effort and the trends in resource allocation among the services. Analysis based
on the narrower definition of defense?for which the estimates are more precise?in-
dicates that during the 10-year period more than one-half of total spending went for
investment, a little more than one-fourth for operating expenditures, and more than
one-fifth for research, development, testing, and evaluation.
22
Examination of defense spending according to service indicates that:
? The Air Forces and the Ground Forces received the largest shares of
investment and operating spending. The share going to the Air Forces
increased during the period as a result of increased spending for Frontal
Aviation. The Ground Forces' share was relatively constant.
? Spending for the Navy and the National Air Defense Forces grew more
slowly than defense spending as a whole. As a result, the shares of investment
and operating spending going to these forces were smaller in 1977 than in
1967. Most of the growth in spending for the Navy was allocated to ballistic
missile submarines, while most of the growth in spending for the Air Defense
Forces was allocated to interceptor aircraft.
? The Strategic Rocket Forces received the smallest share of investment and
operating spending among the five services. Spending for the Strategic
Rocket Forces was primarily determined by deployment cycles for ICBMs
and fluctuated more than that for any other service. By the end of the 10-
year period, spending for this service was only slightly higher than in 1967.
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Estimated Soviet Military Investment
and Operating Expenditures'
Billion 1970 rubles
53'58 Strategic
46-51 8% Rocket Forces
5% .12,7., National Air
40-45 Defense Forces
7.%
35-40
10% 41/-7m 19%
moo irrsi
lie 22%
22%
20% Navy
Air Forces
22% Ground Forces
22%
2
21% 2%
C
?It nuni mum Support
WO. Command and
1967 1970 1973 1977
1 As defined for comparison with US accounts.
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that:
Examination of defense spending for intercontinental and regional forces indicate
? Spending for intercontinental attack forces subject to SALT II limitations
constituted a little more than 10 percent of total defense spending and grew
at a slower pace than the total.
? Spending for Ground Forces and Frontal Aviation in East Germany,
Poland, and Czechoslovakia constituted less than 10 percent of total defense
spending but grew at about twice the rate of the total.
? Spending for Soviet forces along the Sino-Soviet border constituted a little
less than 10 percent of total defense spending but grew at about twice the
rate of the total.
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Prospects
Soviet economic growth has slowed in the 1960s and the 1970s, and we forecast a
further slowdown in the 1980s. Nonetheless, all of the evidence available to us on
Soviet defense programs under way and planned suggests that the long-term upward
trend in allocation of resources to defense is likely to continue into the 1980s.
There is no indication that economic problems are causing major changes in
defense policy. The atmosphere in Moscow with regard to the economy, however, is
one of concern, and the Soviet leaders could be contemplating modest alterations in
military force goals. But even if such alterations were undertaken, the rate of growth
of defense spending over the next five years or so probably would slow only
marginally.
? For the next two or three years, Soviet defense spending will continue to
grow. Because some current ICBM, ballistic missile submarine, and fighter
aircraft programs are nearing completion, the annual rates of growth in that
period probably will be slightly lower than the long-run average.
? During the early 1980s, we expect the Soviets to begin testing and
deploying a number of the new weapon systems under development. This
probably will cause the annual rates of growth in defense spending to
increase to a pace more in keeping with the long-term growth trend of 4 to 5
percent a year.
? Conclusion of a SALT II agreement along the lines currently being
discussed would not in itself slow the growth of Soviit defense spending
significantly.
Notes
EC Leaders Ponder Exchange Rate Cooperation
Last week's EC finance council meeting and a subsequent get-together between
West German Chancellor Schmidt and French President Giscard have kept the issue
of EC exchange rate cooperation in the forefront of Community policy discussions.
The finance council took no decisive action; a summary of the discussions will be
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submitted to the EC heads of government meeting scheduled for 6-7 July in Bremen.
Schmidt and Giscard reportedly are sending emissaries to various EC capitals to take
soundings on the closely held ideas of the two leaders for stabilizing EC currencies.
While EC heads of state may agree in principle at Bremen on exchange rate
cooperation, the complexity of the issue almost guarantees that no specific plan will be
endorsed at that time.
The Council reportedly considered three potential schemes for increasing
exchange rate cohesion among the Nine as put forward by the EC Monetary
Committee:
? An enlarged "snake- that includes the United Kingdom, France, and Italy,
with provisions for a transitional period and/or permanent modification to
increase snake flexibility.
? Target zones for non-snake currencies defined in terms of a weighted
average of currencies with an obligation to defend these rates through
intervention.
? Target zones defined as above without any obligation to defend the rates.
The contents of the Monetary Committee's report undoubtedly generated
comments on possible variations in the three schemes plus the potential for
developing a common policy vis-a-vis the dollar.
Press briefings by the finance ministers after their meeting indicated that
important differences still exist. West German Finance Minister Matthoefer seemed to
endorse the enlarged snake concept. He emphasized that any new exchange rate
arrangement should not divide the EC into different currency zones and that all
participants should be subject to the same rights and obligations. Britain's Chancellor
of the Exchequer, Denis Healey, downplayed the possibility of British reentry into the
snake when he explained that Britain would only accept a new exchange rate system if
it were durable?wryly noting that UK participation in the original snake was rather
short lived.
Poland Chops Trade Deficit with West
Poland slashed imports from the developed West 17 percent and boosted exports
11 percent in the first four months of 1978, compared with the first four months of
1977, reducing the deficit from $814 million to $369 million. The Poles have
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Million US $
Jan-Apr
1976
1977 '
1977 '
1978'
Total Imports
13,823
14,767
4,383
4,217
Non-Communist
7,375
7,057
2,136
1,822
Of which:
Developed West
6,798
6,292
1,915
1,596
Total exports
10,969
12,405
3,608
4,217
Non-Communist
4,441
4,882
1,423
1,568
Of which:
Developed West
3,563
3,877
1,101
1,227
Preliminary.
intensified retrenchment efforts begun last year, when they cut back their record 1976
deficit with the West, from $3.2 billion to $2.4 billion. We are beginning to see signs
that import cutbacks, particularly of Western industrial materials, are causing
shortfalls in industrial production.
South Korea Further Liberalizes Imports
With the 12 July meeting between Minister of Finance Kim Yong-hwan and US
Treasury Secretary Blumenthal in mind, Seoul has further eased its restrictive import
policy. South Korea's trade plan for second half 1978 (a) removes curbs on 47
commodity subitems, primarily raw materials, and (b) lifts end-user requirements
from 64 items. This is in addition to the removal of barriers on 136 items last month
and continues Seoul's cautious loosening of its import control system.
The Ministry of Finance is apparently concerned that the US will push for rapid
liberalization during Kim's visit to Washington next month. The South Koreans fear
increased restrictions against their exports if they are not forthcoming. Several
economists within the Pak government have suggested that Kim offer complete
liberalization by 1981 in exchange for US support on elimination of safeguard
provisions in Multilateral Trade Negotiations and US backing for Korean membership
in the OECD.
Liberalization measures implemented since mid-1977 have contributed to a rapid
advance in South Korean imports. Import volume rose 33 percent in the first quarter
and import licenses are running 45 percent ahead of last year's pace.
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Assessment
Center
Economic Indicators
Weekly Review
29 June 1978
ER El 78-026
29 June 1978
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
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officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
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Approved For Release 200/0 / -1?81T1170
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
FOREWORD
1. The Economic Indicators Weekly Review provides up-to-date information
on changes in the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-
Communist developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators
Weekly Review is updated from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the
results are made available to the reader weeks?or sometimes months?before receipt
of official statistical publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are revised every
few months. The most recent date of publication of source notes is 16 February 1978.
Comments and queries regarding the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are
welcomed.
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
BIG SIX FOeitibegIFder-oThilfgg'4693106gRefREEM46RS
Industrial Production
140
130
120
INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
Semilogarithmic Scale
United .S? .i.es
Big Six
(Weighted average)
110
Unemployment Rate
9
8
7
\United States
131
125
Percent
4
3
Note: Excluding data for Italy.
Big Five
? \6.o
4.3
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
1974
1975
lIncluding Japan, West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada.
A-2
1976
1977
1978
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Consumer Price Inflation
Percent, seasonally adjusted, annual rate
Note: Three-month average compared with previous three months.
Trade Balance
6.0
Billion US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
4.0
3.0
2.0
4.2
Big Six
h weighted moving average.
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT )AI .feR JUL OCT
1973
Industrial
Production
Big Six
United States
Consumer Prices
Big Six
United States
1974
1975
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month 1970 Earlier Earlier2
MAR 78
MAR 78
APR 78
APR 78
0.8 2.9 0.5 7.6
1.3 3.5 4.2 1.1
0.3 9.2 6.5 6.0
0.9 6.6 6.6 8.5
1976
1977
1978
3 Months
LATEST MONTH ;Year Earlier Earlier
Unemployment Rate
Big Five APR 78 4.3 4.2 4.2
United States APR 78 6.0 7.1 6.3
LATEST MILLION CUMULATIVE (MILLION US $)
MONTH US $ 1978 19/7 Change
Trade Balance
Big Six FEB 78 5,140 7,790 3,178 4,612
United States FEB 78 -4,518 -6,884 -3,495 -3,389
576358 6-78
2Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months, seasonally adjusted at annual rate.
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
United States
140
130
110
1973 Average 120
Japan
140
130
?"\,"/%4*.,"
Semilogarithmic Scale
2
126
110
West Germany
130
120
/-110? 113
France
140
130
?120
121
110
139
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN -APR JUL OCT ?JAN APR JUL?OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
?
1973
1974
1975
A-4
1976
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United Kingdom
100
111
Semilogarithmic Scale
Italy
Canada
130
133
120
110
123
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
Percent
Change
from
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Percent
Change
from
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
EarPeri
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier1
United States
APR 78
1.1
3.6
4.7
4.8
' United Kingdom
MAR 78
0.6
0.6
-0.9
4.1
Japan
APR 78
-0.4
4.0
4.9
10.0 ,
1 Italy
APR 78
-1.4
2.5
-2.4
-2.0
West Germany
APR 78
1.7
2.0
0.9
-8.7
Canada
MAR 78
0
3.8
1.7
0.3
France
MAR 78
2.4
3.5
0.8
11.2
5763616-78
1-Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
United States
8
7
6
PERCENT
1965-74 Average
West Germany
France
3
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
1973 1974
1975
A-6
1976
5.0
4.6?
.2---
1.2
1.9 ?
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1977 1978
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United Kingdom
Italy (quarterly)
3.8
3
A labor force survey based on new definitions of economic activity sharply raised the official estimate of Italian unemployment In first quarter 1977. Data for earlier periods thus are not comparable.
Italian data are not seasonally adjusted.
Canada
8.6
5.7
2.5
3.4 ?
5.0 ?
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
THOUSANDS OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
1 Year 3 Months1 Year 3 Months
LATEST MONTH LATEST MONTH
Earlier Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
MAY 78
6,149
6,894
6,090
United Kingdom
JUN 78
1,365
Japan
APR 78
1,220
1,020
1,130
Italy
I 78
1,520
West Germany
MAY 78
997
1,040
1,012
Canada
APR 78
935
France
APR 78
1,087
1,037
1,023
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-78, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates. Beginning in
1977, Italian rates should be decreased by 50 percent to be roughly comparable to US rates.
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1,353
1,400
1,459
1,598
868
891
576447 6-78
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CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION Percent, seasonally adjusted,
annual ratel
United States
15
10
5
2.9 Average Annual Rate of Inflation 1961-1972
8
Japan
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
to
5.8
West Germany
15
10
1.9
?e
3.1
France
15
10
8.3
4.3
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974
iThree-month average compared with previous three months.
1975 1976 1977 1978
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United Kingdom
4.7
Italy
11.3
4.2
Canada
2.9
8.8
JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
JAN
APR JUL
1974
Percent
Change
from
OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1975
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
JAN APR JUL OCT
1976
JAN APR JUL OCT
1977
Percent
Change
from
LATEST
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
Previous
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier2
MONTH
Month
United States
APR 78
0.9
6.6
6.6
8.5
United Kingdom
MAY 78
0.4
' Japan
APR 78
-0.1
9.8
3.9
4.0
, Italy
MAY 78
1.2
West Germany
APR 78
0.1
5.3
2.9
3.2
, Canada
APR 78
0.3
France
APR 78
0.9
9.0
9.0
8.3
2Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months, seasonally adjusted at annual rate.
A-9
JAN APR JUL OCT
1978
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
1970 1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier2
13.2
13.1
7.6
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7.7
6.0
12.3
11.3
8.4
8.8
576450 6-78
GNP'
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Constant Market Prices Constant Prices
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
, Seasonally adjusted.
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Quarter 1970
Quarter
78 I
78 I
78 I
77 IV
77 IV
77 IV
77 IV
-0.1
2.4
0.2
1.4
-0.5
-3.7
0.8
3.1
5.5
2.5
3.8
1.6
1.7
4.6
1 Year Previous
Earlier
3.6
5.7
1.2
3.4
-1.1
-5.9
4.0
Quarter
-0.6
10.0
0.8
5.8
-1.9
-13.9
3.4
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier 2
United States Mar 78 1.4 3.2 1.0 -8.2
Japan Jan 78 2.9 9.2 1.0 -2.8
West Germany Mar 78 1.7 2.6 1.7 2.2
France Jan 78 9.9 0 1.0 10.5
United Kingdom May 78 2.2 1.2 5.6 5.2
Italy Feb 78 1.3 2.8 2.1 5.9
Canada Mar 78 -1.2 4.1 2.0 4.1
, Seasonally adpnted.
2 Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
FIXED INVESTMENT '
Nonresidential; constant prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
' Seasonally adjusted.
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year Previous
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
78 I 0.4 2.2 4.1 1.6
78 I 0.9 1.1 -0.4 3.6
77 IV 1.6 0.8 2.8 6.7
77 IV 0.8 4.0 4.7 3.3
77 IV -1.5 1.3 4.1 -5.9
78 I 5.3 1.7 - 11.4 22.7
77 IV -3.7 5.0 -7.5 -14.1
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING '
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Latest
Period
Apr 78
Jan 78
77 IV
77 IV
Jan 78
Apr 78
Mar 78
Percent Change
from Previous
Period
0.8
1.2
0.3
3.1
0.5
0.9
Average
Annual Growth Rote Since
1970
7.6
16.3
9.1
14.1
14.7
20.1
11.0
1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier 2
8.3
9.4
7.4
12.0
3.3
17.4
89
7.5
4.7
1.1
12.9
2.7
13.4
7.3
' Hourly earnings (seasonally adjusted) for Me United States, Japan, and Canada; hourly wage
rates for others. West German and French data refer to the beginning of the quarter.
2 Average for latest 3 months compared with that for previous 3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATES
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Eurodollars
Representative rates
Commercial paper
Call money
Interbank loans (3 months)
Call money
Sterling interbank loans (3 months)
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
Percent Rate of Interest
1 Year 3 Months 1 Month
Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
Jun 21 7.66 5.40 6.76 7.14
Jun 23 4.13 5.63 4.25 4.12
Jun 21 3.62 4.23 3.50 3.60
Jun 23 7.38 8.75 8.75 7.75
Jun 21 10.16 7.75 6.59 9.55
Jun 21 8.14 7.14 7.55 8.00
Jun 21 8.48 5.80 7.24 7.86
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US $
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Latest
Month
Mar 78
May 78
Mar 78
Feb 78
Apr 78
Oct 77
Mar 78
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
-0.1 9.3 3.8 7.6
1.1 12.2 23.6 45.4
1.0 12.0 15.6 9.9
-0.5 11.4 9.9 22.7
-2.7 11.4 17.0 -12.7
-0.6 10.9 12.7 0.2
12.8 10.1 14.7 62.2
A
-RriRfigifigaiNg100700020004-8
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latost from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Mar 78 -0.1 9.3 3.8 7.6
May 78 3.1 5.8 0.7 14.3
Mar 78 -0.7 3.8 - 1.5 - 11.6
Feb 78 1.5 9.3 6.4 19.5
Apr 78 0.9 15.3 9.0 5.7
Oct 77 -0.9 16.3 16.0 -0.7
Mar 78 1.3 9.4 9.1 11.9
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Mar 78 2.0 13.1 7.8 27.5
May 78 5.3 7.1 -17.0 - 12.3
Mar 78 1.9 3.6 -19 -0.9
Feb 78 1.9 9.9 3.8 12.5
Apr 78 1.6 17.7 1.9 11.5
Dec 77 -0.7 19.5 9.7 - 13.1
Feb 78 0.7 9.3 16.3 22.8
OFFICIAL RESERVES
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Billion US S
Latest Month
1 Year 3 Months
End of Billion US $ Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
Apr 78 18.8 14.5 18.9 19.5
May 78 27.7 4.1 17.3 24.2
Apr 78 41.3 8.8 34.6 40.7
Apr 78 10.6 4.4 10.0 0.1
Apr 78 17.7 2.8 10.2 21.4
Mar 78 10.6 4.7 6.4 11.6
May 78 4.7 9.1 5.2 3.7
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Cumulative (Million US $)
Latest
Period Million US $ 1977 1976 Change
77 IV -7,030 -20,115 -1,430 - 18,685
May 78 750 17,606 5,884 11,722
Apr 78 841 3,584 2,659 926
77 IV 136 -3,179 -5,721 2,541
77 IV 682 -14-2,172 2,157
77 III 2,390 1,629 -2,028 3,657
77 IV -666 -4,020 -4,230 210
' Converted to US dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
SeasonaNy adjusted.
BASIC BALANCE'
Current Account and Long Term-Capital Transactions
Cumulative (Million US $)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Latest
Period
May 78
Mar 78
77 IV
77 IV
77 Ili
77 IV
MiNion US $ 1977 1976 Change
No longer published
-700
2,026
149
1,389
2,520
-266
14,373
-1,648
-3,218
5,353
2,128
84
3,862
2,472
-6,842
-2,254
-2,083
3,751
10,511
-4,120
3,624
7,607
4,211
-3,667
' Converted to US dollars at ihe current market rates of exchange.
'As recommended by the Advisory Committee on the Presentation of Balance of Payments
Statistics, the Department of Commerce no longer publishes a basic balance.
EXCHANGE RATES
Spot Rate
As of 23 Jun 78
Japan (yen)
West Germany
(Deutsche mark)
France (franc)
United Kingdom
(pound sterling)
Italy (lira)
Canada (dollar)
Percent Change from
US 1 Year 3 Months
Per Unit 19 Mar 73 Earlier Earlier
0.0048 25.48 30.03 6.61
0.4812 35.90 13.28 -2.86
0.2191 -0.58 8.30 0.03
1.8465 -24.97 7.39 -0.83
0.0012 -34.07 3.27 -0.68
0.8893 -10.86 -5.95 0.91
1 Week
Earlier
3.22
0.88
0.90
0.86
0.52
-0.46
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES
As of 23 Jun 78
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Change from
19 Mar 73
--0.39
30.46
30.76
8.52
-29.74
- 41.69
-11.09
1 Year 3 Months 1 Week
Earlier Earlier Earlier
-6.02
27.69
5.02
-0.54
1.07
-5.34
-8.39
-0.97
6.96
-1.47
1.99
0.20
0.77
0.76
-0.80
3.02
0.13
0.14
0.21
-0.25
-0.76
'Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries to
reflect the competitive impact of exchange rate variations among the major currencies.
A-il
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Developed Countries: Direction of Trade '
Billion US $
Exports to (f
.o.b.)
OPEC
Corn-
munist
Other
World
Imports from
(c.i.f .)
OPEC
Corn-
munist
Other
UNITED STATES
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
1975
107.65
46.94
16.25
10.77
3.37
29.82
103.42
49.81
8.83
18.70
0.98
25.08
1976
115.01
51.30
17.68
12.57
3.64
29.44
129.57
60.39
9.75
27.17
1.16
31.09
1977
120.17
53.92
18.53
14.02
2.72
30.98
156.70
70.48
11.08
35.45
1.22
38.47
1st Qtr
29.46
13.75
4.73
3.13
0.86
6.99
37.37
16.07
2.76
8.97
0.30
9.27
2d Qtr
31.67
14.39
4.81
3.69
0.71
8.07
40.45
18.14
2.77
9.31
0.35
9.88
3d Qtr
28.75
12.23
4.39
3.58
0.47
8.08
39.50
17.73
2.78
8.92
0.32
9.75
4th Qtr
30.29
13.55
4.60
3.62
0.68
7.84
39.38
18.54
2.77
8.25
0.25
9.57
JAPAN
1975
55.73
16.56
6.07
8.42
5.16
15.87
57.85
16.93
6.08
19.40
3.36
12.05
1976
67.32
22.61
8.59
9.27
4.93
17.84
64.89
17.58
7.78
21.88
2.91
14.72
1977
81.11
28.02
9.73
12.03
5.32
26.01
71.33
18.87
7.93
24.33
3.41
16.79
1st Qtr
17.89
5.89
2.45
2.46
1.36
5.73
17.44
4.72
1.84
6.24
0.79
3.85
2d Qtr
19.73
6.73
2.41
2.91
1.19
6.49
17.88
4.88
2.10
5.74
0.86
4.30
3d Qtr
20.63
7.40
2.47
3.05
1.33
6.38
17.63
4.68
1.84
5.88
0.84
4.39
4th Qtr
22.86
8.00
2.40
3.61
1.44
7.41
18.38
4.59
2.15
6.47
0.92
4.25
1978
Jan
5.66
2.18
0.65
0.78
0.29
1.76
6.00
1.57
0.73
2.14
0.27
1.29
WEST GERMANY
1975
91.70
28.33
36A4
6.78
8.81
11.05
76.28
27.09
27.78
8.24
4.87
8.21
1976
103.63
33.44
41.86
8.25
8.72
11.04
89.68
31.28
32.64
9.73
5.93
10.01
1977
119.28
39.01
48.00
10.78
8.59
12.90
102.63
36.38
37.37
10.12
6.14
12.62
1st Qtr
28.19
9.28
11.62
2.31
2.11
2.87
24.45
8.46
8.85
2.58
1.42
3.14
2d Qtr
29.20
9.59
11.79
2.69
2.07
3.06
25.21
9.09
9.04
2.43
1.54
3.11
3d Qtr
28.75
9.20
11.45
2.71
2.26
3.13
25.27
8.99
8.97
2.54
1.65
3.12
4th Qtr
33.14
10.94
13.14
3.07
2.15
3.84
27.70
9.84
10.51
2.57
1.53
3.25
FRANCE
1975
52.87
20.00
15.50
4.90
3.13
8.61
53.99
23.04
14.33
9.43
1.94
5.21
1976
57.05
22.49
16.15
5.08
3.23
8.75
64.38
27.81
16.93
11.36
2.24
6.01
1977
65.00
25.90
18.19
5.97
3.00
11.94
70.50
30.28
18.24
11.82
246
7.70
1st Qtr
15.68
6.25
4.55
1.40
0.75
2.73
17.89
7.50
4.84
3.06
0.52
1.97
2d Qtr
16.69
6.60
4.79
1.57
0.83
2.90
17.96
7.84
4.71
2.65
0.61
2.15
3d Qtr
14.75
6.02
4.08
1.32
0.67
2.66
16.14
6.99
3.85
2.87
0.62
1.81
4th Qtr
17.88
7.03
4.77
1.68
0.75
3.65
18.51
7.95
4.84
3.24
0.71
1.77
1978
Jan
5.49
2.21
1.49
0.52
0.19
1.08
6.29
2.69
1.71
1.00
0.21
0.68
UNITED KINGDOM
1975
44.03
12.55
16.59
4.55
1.56
8.64
53.35
18.47
18.52
6.91
1.68
7.67
1976
46.12
14.03
17.53
5.13
1.39
7.92
55.56
19.66
18.81
7.29
2.08
7.65
1977
57.44
16.99
22.56
6.78
1.63
9.48
63.29
24.02
21.34
6.31
2.40
9.22
1st Qtr
13.14
4.02
5.16
1.51
0.35
2.10
15.45
5.80
5.12
1.78
0.49
2.26
2d Qtr
14.35
4.20
5.72
1.69
0.44
2.30
16.52
6.02
5.73
1.70
0.58
2.49
3d Qtr
14.59
4.47
5.55
1.75
0.46
2.36
15.20
6.05
4.74
1.44
0.66
2.31
4th Qtr
15.36
4.30
6.13
1.83
0.38
2.72
16.12
6.15
5.75
1.39
0.67
2.16
1978
Jan
5.22
1.58
1.92
0.68
0.14
0.90
6.27
2.42
2.27
0.64
0.18
0.76
ITALY
1975
34.82
15.61
7.86
3.72
2.46
4.67
38.36
17.32
6.75
7.85
2.09
4.34
1976
36.96
17.41
8.69
4.23
2.18
3.96
43.42
1935.
8.04
8.12
2.65
5.24
1977
1st Qtr
9.80
4.56
2.30
1.26
0.53
1.15
11.37
5.00
2.14
2.18
0.60
1.45
2d Qtr
11.47
5.33
2.61
1.51
0.60
1.42
12.49
5.51
2.24
2.50
0.64
1.60
3d Qtr
10.93
5.01
2.51
1.41
0.63
1.37
10.55
4.39
1.80
2.10
0.73
1.53
Oct & Nov
7.73
3.68
1.66
0.99
0.40
1.00
7.97
3.52
1.48
1.34
0.53
1.10
A-12
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Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
Developed Countries: Direction of Trade
(Continued)
Billion US $
Exports to (f.o.b.)
Imports from (c.i.f.)
CANADA
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
OPEC
Com-
munist
Other
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
OPEC
Corn-
munist
Other
1975
33.84
26.30
1.73
0.71
1.20
2.00
38.59
29.78
1.70
3.43
0.32
2.02
1976
40.18
32.01
2.03
0.81
1.25
2.09
43.05
33.55
1.82
3.48
0.38
2.56
1977
42.98
34.77
2.13
0.94
1.06
4.08
44.67
35.67
1.77
3.05
0.33
3.85
1st Qtr
10.35
8.37
0.53
0.23
0.22
1.00
10.92
8.64
0.43
0.82
0.09
0.94
2d Qtr
11.34
9.23
0.54
0.24
0.29
1.04
12.28
9.92
0.47
0.74
0.10
1.05
3d Qtr
10.25
8.12
0.54
0.23
0.29
1.07
10.38
8.17
0.43
0.82
0.07
0.89
4th Qtr
11.04
9.05
0.52
0.24
0.26
0.97
11.09
8.94
0.44
0.67
0.07
0.97
' Source: International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade.
A-13
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FOREIGN TRADE BILLION US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
United States
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
Semilogarithmic Scale
14.5
4.0
Japan
1.5
West Germany
France
5.9
9.7
2.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
1974
1975
A-14
1976
1977
1978
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Approved For Release 2005/03/24 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
United Kingdom
Semilogarithmic Scale
1.5
Canada
3.9
3.7
JAN
APR JUL OCT
1973
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
JAN
LATEST
MONTH
APR 78
Balance
MAY 78
Balance
APR 78
Balance
APR 78
Balance
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974 1975
CUMULATIVE (MILLION US $)
MILLION
US $ 1978 1977 CHANGE
11,635 42,484 39,678 7.1%
14,496 55,016 47,278 16.4%
JAN APR JUL OCT
1976
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
JAN APR
1977
LATEST
MONTH
MAY 78
Balance
APR 78
Balance
FEB 78
Balance
JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1978
CUMULATIVE (MILLION US 5)
MILLION
US $ 1978 1977 CHANGE
5,231 27,077 21,791 24.3%
5,538 27,973 24,164 15.8%
-2,861
7,848
5,940
-12,533
39,330
27,515
-7,600
32,397
25,370
-4,933
21.4%
8.5%
-307
4,650
4,053
-896
16,050
14,955
-2,372
14,034
14,756
1,476
14.4%
1.3%
1,907
12,015
9,694
11,815
44,720
37,286
7,027
37,423
31,124
-4,787
19.5%
19.8%
598
3,946
3,710
1,095
7,175
6,680
-722
6,761
6,509
1,817
6.1%
2.6%
2,321
6,416
6,279
7,434
24,665
24,652
6,299
20,659
21,770
1,135
19.4%
13.2%
235
495
252
243
138
13
-1,111
1,124
576446 6-78
A-15
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Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
FOREIGN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
United States INDEX: JAN 1975 =100
130
120
110
100
Imports
90
Japan
117
West Germany
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974
1975
1976
1Expor1 and import plots are based on five-month weighted moving averages.
A-16
1977
1978
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Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
113
109
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
110
100
90
109
JAN
APR JUL OCT
1974
JAN
APR JUL OCT
1975
JAN
107
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1976
A-17
1977
1978
576448 6-78
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Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
MONEY SUPPLY
'
Latest
Month
Percent Change
from Previous
Month
Annual
1970
Average
Growth Rate Since
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier '
1 Year 3 Months
Period Period
1970 Earlier Eerier'
Brazil
Jan 78
4.2
36.6
44.5
19.9
India
Dec 77
3.3
4.7
4.6
2.5
India
Dec 77
1.0
13.8
13.6
26.1
South Korea
Feb 78
-2.7
22.1
21.4
23.8
Iran
Feb 78
0.8
28.1
27.7
30.3
Mexico
Feb 78
1.4
5.9
11.2
3.3
South Korea
Mar 78
0.9
317
38.8
32.2
Nigeria
76 IV
0.2
11.3
9.0
0.7
Mexico
Mar 78
3.0
20.5
30.5
40.3
Taiwan
Apr 78
1.5
15.3
17.4
- 2.0
Nigeria
Apr 77
- 2.3
36.9
47.5
99.7
Taiwan
Mar 78
5.3
25.2
31.0
24.3
' Seasonally adjusted.
Thailand
Nov 77
3.3
13.1
12.3
4.7
Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
' Seasonally adlusted.
l Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
CONSUMER PRICES
Average
WHOLESALE PRICES
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual Growth Rate Since
Latest from Previous 1 Year
Percent Change
Month Month 1970 Earlier
Latest from Previous 1 Year
Brazil
May 78
3.2
28.0
36.0
Month Month 1970 Earlier
India
Jan 78
- 1.5
7.8
5.9
Brazil
May 78
3.4
28.4
34.5
Iran
Mar 78
2.3
12.5
17.6
India
Mar 78
0.8
8.1
-0.6
South Korea
Apr 78
-0.1
14.4
12.6
Iran
Mar 78
3.2
11.1
12.5
Mexico
May 78
1.0
15.0
17.2
South Korea
Apr 78
0.6
16.0
10.9
Nigeria
Dec 77
3.2
16.6
31.0
Mexico
May 78
2.5
16.5
16.3
Taiwan
Apr 78
1.8
10.1
7.6
Taiwan
Mar 78
1.1
8.2
1.2
Thailand
Feb 78
1.5
8.6
10.2
Thailand
Dec 77
0
9.6
7.3
EXPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
US $
Million US S
Average
Latest Month
Annual Growth Rote Since
1 Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
1 Year
End of Million US $ Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
Period Period
1970 Earlier
Brazil
Jan 78
6,757
1,013
6,193
6,041
Brazil
Dec 77
2.0
13.7
- 15.8
India
Feb 78
5,563
1,006
3,481
5,069
India
Mar 77
-0.9
9.6
17.9
Iran
Apr 78
12,584
208
10,548
12,848
Iran
Mar 78
0
32.0
0
South Korea
Apr 78
4,116
602
3,247
4,418
South Korea
77 IV
4.6
8.9
8.8
Mexico
Jan 78
1,909
695
1,507
1,720
Nigeria
May 76
-0.1
27.3
12.3
Nigeria
Apr 78
3,768
148
4,784
3,900
Taiwan
Mar 78
-0.7
11.2
3.8
Taiwan
Mar 78
1,433
531
1,349
1,447
Thailand
Dec 76
2.0
13.3
13.1
Thailand
Apr 78
2,138
978
2,006
1,950
A-18
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Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
FOREIGN TRADE, f.o.b.
Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
Latest Period
Cumulative (Million US $)
3 Months 1 Year
Earlier Earlier
1977 1976 Change
Brazil
Apr 78 Exports
19.0
0.5
12,137
10,128
19.8%
Apr 78 Imports
7.7
5.8
11,999
12,346
- 2.8%
Apr 78 Balance
138
-2,218
2,356
Egypt
76 IV Exports
3,781.6
240.7
76 IV Imports
11,741,0
195.7
76 IV Balance
India
Dec 77 Exports
-22.1
13.9
6,142
5,050
21.6%
Dec 77 Imports
14.4
25.9
5,365
4,548
18.0%
Dec 77 Balance
776
502
274
Iran
Mar 78 Exports
-36.7
-4.4
24,237
23,475
3.2%
Jan 78 Imports
20.5
21.0
12,561
11,513
9.1%
Jan 78 Balance
11,676
11,962
-286
South Korea
Mar 78 Exports
-36.9
28.4
10,046
7,715
30.2%
Mar 78 Imports
- 5.5
29.5
10,526
8,405
25.2%
Mar 78 Balance
-480
-690
210
Mexico
Feb 78 Exports
91.6
14.9
4,092.9
3,315.8
23.4%
Feb 78 Imports
-47.3
23.8
5,487.5
6,029.6
-9.0%
Feb 78 Balance
- 1,394.6
-2,713.8
1,319.2
Nigeria
Dec 77 Exports
-28.5
15.2
4,752
4,033
17.8%
Dec 76 Imports
86.7
8.4
N.A.
N.A.
NA.
Dec 76 Balance
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Taiwan
Apr 78 Exports
-27.6
32.3
1,526
1,226
24.5%
Apr 78 Imports
- 14.5
20.4
1,309
1,044
25.4%
Apr 78 Balance
217
182
36
Thailand
Dec 77 Exports
-27.2
- 1.6
3,559
3,040
17.1%
Jan 78 Imports
0.6
21.4
4,246
3,313
28.2%
Dec 77 Balance
-687
-273
-414
' At annual rates.
A-19
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Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
AGRICULTURAL PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
WHEAT
$ PER BUSHEL
7.5
Kansas City No. 2 Hard Winter
21 JUN
3.13
14 JUN
3.02
MAY 78
3,11
JUN 77
2.31
$ PER METRIC TON
2.5
3.11
250
-200
150
100
50
3
2
1
CORN
PER BUSHEL
Chicago No. 2 Yellow
21 JUN 2.58
14 JUN 2.51
MAY 78 2.61
JUN 77 2.29
$ PER METRIC TON
2.55
1-21 JUN 11 1-21 JUN II
II 0 0
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
RICE
$ PER HUNDRED WEIGHT
37.5
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens,
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Texas
30.0 '
12 JUN 19.50
5 JUN 20.50
MAY 78 20.80
JUN 77 15.25
$ PER METRIC TON
15.0
7.5
20.00
SUGAR
75 C PER POUND
800
World Raw London, bulk
600
50
400
20 JUN 6.70
14 JUN 7.30
MAY 78 7.32
JUN 77 8.08
$ PER METRIC TON
7.41
1-12 JUN [I 0 JUN I I
0 0, , , _
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 13 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
COTTON
1.0S PER POUND
Memphis Middling 11/16 inch
PER METRIC TON
0.2
21 JUN
14 JUN
MAY 78
JUN 77
0.5965
0.6003
0.5942
0.6230
COFFEE/TEA
400 c PER POUND
COFFEE
2,000 Other Wilds Arabicas, ex-dock New York
350
300
1,500
20 JUN
14 JUN
MAY 78
JUN 77
0.5923 TEA
London Auction
1,000 APR 97.9
200 MAR 106.1
FEB 78 108.0
JUN 77 142.0
250
164.0
169.33
169.26
262.09
:500
1-21 JUN II
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 0
150
100
A-20
50
$ PER METRIC TON
1974 1975 1976
450
100
50
1,500
1,000
500
8,000
6,000
173.55 4'000
97.9
APR
1-20 JUN I
I
1977 1978
2,000
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
10
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
SOYBEANS
$ PER BUSHEL
Chicago No. 1 Yellow
21 JUN 6.74
14 JUN 6.53
MAY 78 7.09
JUN 77 8.20
$ PER METRIC TON
500
400
8.80
1-21 JUN II
1977 1978
SOYBEAN OIL/PALM OIL
400
320
300
240
200
160
- 100
0.5 PER POUND $ PER METRIC TON
SOYBEAN OIL
Crude, Tank Cars, f.o.b. Decatur
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
PALM OIL
Crude, Bulk, c.i.f. US Ports
21 JUN 0.3125
14 JUN 0.3000
MAY 78 0.2847
JUN 77 0.2830
1974
1975
SOYBEAN MEAL
$ PER TON
$ PER METRIC TON
44 Percent Bulk, f.o.b. Decatur
21 JUN
168.50
14 JUN
163.00
MAY 78
176.55
JUN 77
216.57
80
1974
500
168.23
1-21 JUN II
1975 1976 1977 1978
FOOD INDEX
1,000 1970=100
21 JUN 0.2620
14 JUN 0.2572
MAY 78 0.2870 ; 800 400
JUN 77 0.2708
1976
0.3023
0.2878 600
300
1-21 JUN II
1977 1978
400
200
200
NOTE: The food index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
1-13 JUN II
100
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
A-21
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, 400
'.., 350
576449 6-78
300
250
200
150
100
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INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
140
120
100
80
60
40
COPPER WIRE BAR
PER POUND
LME
21 JUN
59.4
65
14 JUN
58.7
67 -
MAY 78
59.2
64.E?
JUN 77
59.4
71.5
London Metal Exchange'
(LME)
$ PER METRIC TON
1974
ZINC
100
C PER POUND
-
80
60
40
LME"
3,000
LEAD
C PER POUND
45
40
2'500 35
2,000
30
25
1,500 20
51.1
15
1-21JUN 1,000
1975
1976
1977
LME
21 JUN
25.8
31
14 JUN
25.6
MAY 78
25.4
29 0
JUN 77
24.4
34 0
10
$ PER METRIC TON
LME
21 JUN 25.8 0
14 JUN 24.9 '
MAY 78 24.6 5
JUN 77 25.4 ' 0
1,000
800
1-21 JUN II
1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
$ PER METRIC TON
TIN
650 t PER POUND
2,000
550
1,500
450
1,000
500
20 250
350
1-21 JUN II
0
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
STEEL SCRAP
150 PER LONG TON
125
100
75
50
25
LME
21 JUN 564.6 507 1
14 JUN 555.8 61.31
MAY 78 530.5 570 1.
JUN 77 436.4 481.5.
$ PER METRIC TON
,560
887.2 12,000
LME1
200
14,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
1-21 JUN 4,000II
0 150
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
PLATINUM
$ PER METRIC TON150 250 $ PER TROY OUNCE
MP 1.1 D
16 JUN
14 JUN
125 225 1241 JJUUNN 223300..00 2244 45
4#4 1 226,7
MAY 78 Il MAY 78 220.0 2: 5
JUN 77 ,:I 1 JUN 77 167.0 15 2
100 200 I
75 175
50 150
25 125
Major Producer (MP)
1-16 JUN II 1-21 JUN II
0 0 100
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
A-22
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AO 0
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
SELECTED MATERIALS
CURRENT
DEC 77
ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
t per pound
55.00
53.00
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
395.81
359.36
IRON ORE
Non-Bessemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
21.43
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ per metric ton
NA
150.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
56.00
58.50
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
t per pound
42.00
41.00
NICKEL
Composite US Producer
$ per pound
2.07
2.06
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
67.20
72.24
TUNGSTEN ORE
Contained Metal
$ per metric ton
16,646.00
21,549.00
MERCURY
New York
$ per 76 pound flask
149.00
124.33
SILVER
LME Cash
t per troy ounce
528.79
472.49
GOLD
London Afternoon Fixing Price $ per troy ounce
182.67
160.45
RUBBER
Q PER POUND
60
50
40
30
20
10
300
250
21 JUN
14 JUN
MAY 78
JUN 77
Natural4 (NR)
NR SR
50.2 NA
49.8 NA
45.7 NA
39.0 37.9
$ PER METRIC TON
Synthetics (SR)
1974 1975
48.8
1,000
38.9
APR 800
1-21 JUN I I
1976 1977 1978
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS INDEX
1970=100
100
1974 1975
1-13 JUN II
1976 1977 1978
LUMBER INDEX6
160
140
120
100
'600
gte
80
400
60
1973=100
JUN 77 JUN 76
51.00
339.27
21.43
150.00
58.50
43.00
2.41
72.00
22,821.00
126.23
446.93
140.78
44.00
316.36
19.50
150.00
39.00
45.00
2.20
72.00
13,954.00
110.00
478.82
125.71
1974
1975
1976
1-9 JUN II
1977 1978
'Approximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the US.
3As of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite.'
4Quoted on New York market.
5S-type styrene, US export price.
This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction costs.
7Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
A-23
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576451 6-78
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8
Approved For Release 2005/03/24: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700020004-8