ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00702A000800040003-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 2004
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: September 7, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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 For Release 2004/07/29 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000800040003-6
Assessment
Center
Economic Indicators
Weekly Review
7 September 1978
ER El 78-036
7 September 1978
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This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
Governme~at officials may obtain additional copies of this document
directly of through [iaison channels from the Central Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Goverment users may obtain this along with similar
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Docurrnmnt Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exch.an;e and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-[J.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
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1. The Economic Indicators Weekly Review provides up-to-date information
on changes in the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-
Communist developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators
Weekly Review is updated from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the
results are made available to the reader weeks-or sometimes months-before receipt
of official statistical publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are revised every
few months. The most recent date of publication of source notes is 16 February 1978.
Comments and queries regarding the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are
welcomed.
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BIG SIX FOREIGN COUNTRIES' COMPOSITE INDICATORS
INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
Apprq l4or Release129Q9W07/29 : CIA- a0T00702A0pa
Including Japan, West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada.
8W0065-6APR JUL OCT
1978
Scale
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Consumer Price Inflation Percent, seasonally adjusted, annual rate
20
Note: Three-month average compared with previous three months.
Trade Balance
4.0
JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
Industrial
Production
Big Six
United States
Consumer Prices
Big Six
United States
Billion US $, f.o.b., seasj1nalyy adjusted
.J't t-c Sates
'APR JUL OCT
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR' JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN ',
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
LATEST from Previous 1 Year
MONTH Month 1970 Earlier
JUN 78 0.2 2.8 2.5
1UN 78 0.5 3.8 4.9
JUN 78 0.6 9.2 6.2
JUN 78 0.9 5.7 7.4
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
7 Months
LATEST MONTH 1 Year Earlier -arlier
3 Months
Earlier2
Unemployment Rate
Big Five
MAY 78 4.4
75 4
United States
NIAY
1
2.0
12.8
JLATEST
MILLION , CUMULATIVE (MILLION US $)
MONTH
Us $ 1978 1977 -hange
7
2
Trade Balance
.
10.7
BI Six
JUN 78
6,521 28,447 13,680 14,767
United States
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2Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months, seasonally adjusted at annual rate.
A-3
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
United States
West Germany
130
120
IAN APR JUL OCT 'A'bpt&Ved"FdfReVasnOr? OV29'. UAP'aD'Fa`80cM0702AV0080002T003N-6
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
A-4
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Italy
`1,
United Kingdom
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Change
from
GROWTH RATE S1VCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
United States
JUL 7g
0.5
4.8
10.3
Unltld Kingdom
1111k, 78
1.4
n r
Japan
JUL 78
0.7
4-0
87
5.5
=Rely
tJJI 78
-1.0
=..
West Germany
JUN 78
0.9
1.9
0
-4.5
Canada
1!Jti 78
0.5
2
France
JUN 78
-0.8
2.9
-1.6
1.0
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lAverage for latest 3 months o pared with average for previous months.
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
United States
France
nti.. CT JAN APR JUL OCT
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
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Italy (quarterly)
A labor force survey based on new definitions of economic activity sharply raised the official estimate of Italian unemployment in first quarter 1977. Data for earlier periods thus arenot comparable.
Italian data are not seasonally adjusted
., ., ~.. _,,..:. ... .: a .. .. , __ _
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
THOUSANDS OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
LATEST MONTH
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
ear
Earlier
Earlier
United States
AUG 78
5,968
6,821
6,149
Unitef Kingdom
AUG 78
1,392
1,414
rob
Japan
MAY 78
1,270
1,140
1,160
Italy #_
11 78
1,455
14Jr
o20
West Germany
JUL 78
991
1,049
990
canaga
JUL 78
927
doff
France
JUL 78
1,241
1,140
1,087
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-78, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates. Beginning in
1977, Italian rates should be decreased by 50 percent to be roughly comparable to US rates.
3 Months
1 Y
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CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
United States
15
10
Japan
France
29 Average Annual Rate of Inflation 1961-1972
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
1Tn,ee-moncn average comPApproved or ~?e6se 2004/07/29 CIA-RDP80T00702A000800040003-6
Percent, seasonally adjusted,
annual rate'
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United Kingdom
Italy
4.7,
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
LATEST
MONTH
Percent
Change
from
Previous
Month
United States
JUL 78
0.7
Japan
JUN 78
0.3
West Germany
JUN 7s
0.1
France
JUL 78
1975 1976 1977 1978
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
1970 1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier2
6.8 /.7 11.0 ; Unipd. Kingdom,
,ftl_
9.8 3.5 6.1
12.1
Percent AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
from
LATEST Previous 1970 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month Earner Earlier2
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A-9
 p roved efease-ZGO
GNP '
RETAIL SALE
Constant Market Prices
Constant Prices
Average
Average
Areryal Growth Rat since
Annual Growth Raft Since
Percent Charge
Per,' Change -
-
Latest from Previous I Year
Previous
Lats#
from Previan
I Year
3 Months
Quarter
Quarter ~ 197$ E.H.
Quarter
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier '
United States 78 II
1.8 3.2 4.0
7.4
United States
May 78
-0.9
3.1
1.9
5.5
Japan 78 I
2.4 5.5 5.7
10.0
Japan
Apr 78
4.0
9.9
4.3
24.8
West Germany 78 I
0.1 2.4 1.1
0.4
West Germany
May 78
-0.8
2.3
0
-5.3
France 78 I
1.8 4.1 1.4
7.4
France
Jan 78
9.9
0
1.0
10.5
United Kingdom 77 IV
- 0.5 1.6 -1.1
- 1.9
United Kingdom
Jul 78
1.7
1.4
5.4
9.0
Italy 78 I
2.0 1.9 -6.2
8.2
Italy
Mar 78
3.6
3.2
5.5
21.1
Canada 78 I
0.7 4.7 2.8,
2.7
Canada
d
I
Jun 78
1.4
4.1
4.5
2.2
Seamy adjusftd'
.
soma-NY maste
' Average for latest 3
months conpored with average for previous 3 months.
FIXED INVESTMENT '
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING'
Nonresidential; constant
prices
Average
Annual G
rowth Ra
te Since
Average
Percent Change --
-
---
Jeaeal Growth Rats since
LaNSt
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Percent chiangs =_ - ----
--
Perid
Period
1970
Earlier
Eager'
Latest
fr. Previous 1 year
Previous
Quarter
Quarter 1470 Earlier
Quarter
United States
Jun 78
0.5
7.6
7.6
7.2
United States 78 11
3.6 3.0 7A
15.1
Japan
Apr 78
0.3
16.1
8.2
10.3
Japan 78 I
0.9 1.1 -0 .4
3.6
West Germany
78 I
0.9
8.9
4.3
3.9
West Germany 78 I
-0.5 07 1.6
-2.1
France
77 IV
3.1
14.1
12.0
12.9
France 77 IV
0.8 4.0 4.7
3.3
United Kingdom
May 78
0.5
16.4
20.6
54.9
United Kingdom 78 I
1.3 1.6 9.7
5.2
Italy
May 78
3.5
20.4
15.5
13.6
Italy 78 1
2.3 1.1 -19.6
9.4
Canada
May 78
0.9
10.9
7.1
6.2
Canada 78 1
-3.7 4.8 1 - 112.7 1
-14.1
n Hoary earnings (seasonaly adjustd)
for the United states, Japan, and Canada;
hourly wage
SeasonaNy adjusted-
rates for others. West German and French data refer
to the begi
nning of
the quarter.
' Average for latest 3
months compact with that for previous
3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATE
Percent Rate of Interest
1 Year
3 Months
I Month
Representative rates
Latest Date
Earlier
Earlier
Earlier
United States
Commercipl paper
Aug 23 7.85
5.89
7.19
7.88
Japan
Call money
Aug 25 4.50
5.75
4.12
4.62
West Germany
Interbank 'I