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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 STAT Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 INDEX: V. S. NEMCH IN 0 V. The Balance-sheet method in econ? ? omic statistics T. V. RYABUSHKI N. Index-method theory and practical application in the U. S. S. R M. V. PTUK U A. Population census methods in the U. S. S. R Printed lit the USSR by the Publishing-House of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Motcow 1057 20 50 MEM= gm pip THE BALANCE-SHEET METHOD IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS by V. S. Nemchinov, academician Separate economic branches are studied by their own statistics: industrial, agricultural, transport, trade and other statistics, while the national economy as a whole (its structure and the relations between separate economic bran- ches) is the subject of a special branch of science-economic statistics, which is a summary synthetic science based on a balance-sheet method. The balance-sheet method is also used by branch stati- stics when specific, concrete problems are analysed, but here its significance is auxiliary. Thus, for example, in agricul- tural statistics this method is used in compiling balances of grain and forage; in industrial statistics for balances of fuel and electricity; in transport statistics for balances of goods transportation, etc. As a rule, all these balances are compiled on the basis of physical measurement and designa- ted in wheight units (tons) and work units (power-hours, kilowatt-hours, ton-kilometres). Natural balances in brandh statistics have been used for a long time. But economic sta- tistics emerged only recently and the application of the balance-sheet method to the study of the national economy as a whole began on the whole only in the XXIII century. The first distinguishing feature of the balance-sheet me- thod which forms the basis of economic statistics is its value (monetary) character. In the last centuries the value me- thod was used only when state budgets were compiled; in book-keeping it was used in compiling the balance-sheets of different enterprises. From the moment of its emergence 2 Reports 3 ifid in Part Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 economic statistics pursued an entirely new objective: that of calculating the national economic balance-sheet, In solving this task the balance-sheet method makes possible an economic analysis of the whole national economy as an aggregate of different economic units (industrial, agricultu- ral, transport and other enterprises), reducing their innumer- able economic operailons into definite homogeneous econo- mic categories. The use of the balance-sheet method is impossible without a detailed and scientifically grounded classification of eco- nomic operations and of the results achieved by different enterprises. Scientific classification of the elements of the national economy Is therefore the second characteristic fea- ture of the balance-sheet method in economic statistics. The third and the most important characteristic fea- ture of the balance-sheet method is the use of double counting and duplex accounts. All material values, for example, are considered according to their place in the receipts and expen- ditures of separate structural units and of the whole national . economy. The balance-sheet method in economic statistics uses widely the principle of duplex analysis. Thus in the process of circulation, the different elements of production are treated as components of capital outlays or as products distributed between other industries (elements of productive consump? tion) or between final buyers. A duplex study of the elements of the national economy takes place, for instance, when ma- terial values are considered from the standpoint of purchases made by enterprises, groups of enterprises or economic bran- ches and from the standpoint of the sales by one economic branch to another. The principle of duplex account is widely used in the comparison of such economic charateristics as cost and output of goods, social product and national income, production and consumption, accumulation and consumption, or in the study of structural economic relations between basic subdivisions of social production and between individual social groups of the population. The characteristics obtained by such duplex accounting are arranged in the form of economic matrix of figures. Such a matrix arrangement of economic data is the fourth charac- teristic feature of the balance-sheet method in economic 4 statistics. The statistical results of duplex accounting are arranged in the form of tables with two approneho (for exam- ple, production and consumption), I. e? in the form of a mu- tually combined symmetric table. Sometimes these tables assume the form of a chess-board balance-sheet in which the subdivisions of the subject and predicate (items of the rows and the columns) of the table ful- ly coincide, and the rows and columns are balanced. Chess- board forms are widely used in English and American economic statistics for input-output computions, which are a variation of the balance-sheet method. Some chess-board balance- sheets have a large number of subdivisions. For example, the Untied States Bureau of Labour Statistics made a chess- board balance-sheet for a study of the flow of goods and ser- vices in 1947; this balance-sheet provides for 500 subdivi- sions in the rows and the columns of the table. However there Is an understandable tendency towards using the so-called "small matrices", which study principally large structural subdivisions in the national economy and do not requite a table arranged in the form of a chess-board. Large summary balance-sheet tables may be considered as consisting of elementary balance-sheet tables (quadrang- les) orthogonally connected with one another. The ortho- gonal connection is usually done by superimposing the quadr- angles horizontally, vertically, or crosswise. In the balance- sheet tables, as a rule, orthogonal balancing is achieved in the rows and columns or in their totals The orthogonal connection of the elementary balance tables (quadrangles) and orthogonal (at a right angle) balancing of the totals of the rows and columns are the fifth distinguishing feature of the balance-sheet method. The characteristics of the balance-sheet method used in economic statistics cannot be confined only to a description of the main formal statistical features of its tabular arrange- ment. Of great importance is the determination of the so-cal- led economic model of the national economy as a whole. This model is the subject of the balance-sheet method. The results of a statistical and economical analysis of the structure of the national economy, are in Soviet literature defined as balances of the national economy. See, e. g. oNational Income and Expenditure?, 1946--1952, (Lon- don, 1953). Table 13. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 2* 5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 In Anglo-American and West-European literature other terms are used to define analogous investigations, for exam- ple, the national economic budget, economic table, national or social accounts, etc. All these notions have in common a numerical expression of the circulation of material values and services accompanied by an analysis of the structural interdependences between separate parts and subdivisions of the national economy. When investigating the circulation in the national econo- my and its structure, Soviet statistics proceeds from the Marxist-Leninist theory of social production and in parti- cular from Marx's scheme of large-scale reproduction. The balance-sheet of the national economy is constructed on the basis of the following main premises: I. Society cannot exist without labour input into social material production which supposes the appropriation by the society, in historically determined social forms, of the gifts and forces of nature which in the process of social pro- duction are fitted to the needs of man and to the needs of the whole soclety. 2. The national income is the part of the social product which remains after remunerating the input of previous embo- died labour spent in the form of materials, fuels, etc. The national income is created only in the sphere of material pro- duction. The incomes of the members of a society obtained outside the productive sphere are derivative (secondary) and result from a redistribution of the Income created in the sphere of material production. 3. In the non-productive sphere the income of a society is not created, but it is used for remunerating the labour of the workers and the material input of this sphere as well as for the accumulation of capital funds (e. g. appartment and cultural houses and other buildings) in the non-pro- ductive sphere; it is also used to increment of the circulating funds (reserves). The capital and turnover funds of the non- productrve sphere are created in the sphere of production; the material outlays in exploiting these funds are covered at the expense of the annual product for society created in the sphere of material production, 4. The new value created in the process of material pro- duction takes two forms: the value of the product remune- rating the workers which is equal to the value of the means 13 of existence of those employed in material production, and the value of the product for society which is used for broade- ning the scale of material production (accumulation in the productive sphere) and for maintenance of the non-productive sphere (consumption, accumulation and material input in the non-productive sphere). 5. The economic relations between separate groups of the population are considered as relations between classes, which are based on their production relations, I. c.. relations of property on the means of production. Ownership of the means of consumption and household goods does not deter- mine the class structure of society. .Under capitalism the relations of property on the means of production lead to the rise of antagonistic classes: bourgeoisie, working class and peasantry. Under socialism, where state and collective-farm property on the means of production exists, there are friendly classes: the working class and peasantry. Under communism a classless society will be created which will be based on common all-people property on the means of production. These initial premises lead to different methods of deter- mining the national income than is accepted in Western- European countries, The difference consists in the fact that Soviet statisticians do not include the income, recieved in payment of various services, into the national income con- sidering this payment as derivative (secondary) and to be effected only by redistributing the national income created in the sphere of material production. The application of these Initial premises leads to the con- struction of an appropriate model of the national economy. Of decisive importance to this model is the strict distinction between the sphere of material production, the non-produ- ctive sphere (services rendered to the population by organi- zations and institutions in the non-productive sphere) and the sphere of personal (individual) consumption (households). The material sphere of production includes industry, construction works, agriculture, forestry, commercial fishery and hunting, transportation of goods, trade (in as much as it means the storing, sorting, packing and delivery of products to the population), state purchases of agricultural products and materials, material supply of enterprises and public catering. The non-productive sphere comprises enterprises and 8 Reports 7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 I nstitutions of cultural and everyday life services: public education, public health, art, science, passenger financial institutions (banks, insurance offices, savings- banks), public utility, administration, defence, etc. Of great importance to the economic model of the national economy constructed by Soviet statisticians is the duplex approach to social production from the standpoint of its value and its material structure. The value aspect singles out the value of the previously embodied labour (provisions for the compensation of the consumed elements of production) and the new value erea ted by live labour (subdivided into products remunerating the workers and products for society). An analysis of the physical structure of social production singles out the following subdivisions: 1. Production of means of production (impleinentS of production and subjects of work). 2. Production of means of consumption. The economic model of the socialist society Is expressed In ,the balance-sheets of the national economy which are annu- ally compiled by statistical authorities on the basis of data contained in the annual reports of all the enterprises and institutions of the U. S. S. R. The economic model of the so- cialist society is also expressed in the plan balance-sheets compiled by the planning authorities for a future period (a year or a five-years period). The balance-sheet method in economic statistics is widely used in analysing the changes, taking place in the structure of the national economy. For this purpose economic stati- stics constructs balance-sheets of the national economy (using the terminology accepted in Soviet statistics), in other words, a system of national and social accounts. The theoretical foundation of these balance-sheet constructions is the theory of reproduction of the social product which characterizes the remuneration in the course of social pro- duction the material outlays of embodied labour as well as the distribution of the newly created value, part of which forms .the product for society used for the further enlargement of the scale of production and for consumption in the non- productive sphere. 8 In 1758 Francois Quesnay an outstanding french economist, published his famous "economic table" and in 1766 gave an additional analysis of this table, The table of 1766 con- sists of five lines connecting six initial points (which are also the return points), and characterize simultaneously the flow of physical goods and of currency in the process of exchange between the three basic classes of society: firstly...-owners and rentiers; secondly ? farmers; thirdly = manufacturers, crafts- men,merchants and professionals. In the Quesnay scheme the up- per ends of the lines characterize the buyers and the lower?the sellers. The flow of physical gonds and the exchange of servi- ces are shown by Quesnay not .only graphically through li- nes, but also with the help of corresponding figures that express the volume of products sold or the size of the remuneration of the capital elements as well is the share of the social pro- duct passing from the sphere of circulation into the sphere of consumption Karl Marx appraised the Quesnay economic table as a bril liant idea, although he scientifically criticized the Main Quesnay's premises: an erroneous explanation by the physio- crates of the origin of surplus value as a "generous gift of nature". Following the doctrine of the physiocrates, QuesLay believed that the surplus product was created only in agri- culture, while the class of industrial workers and craftsmen only compensated its own outlays into the process of produ- ction and its own expenditures of the means of subsistence consumed by this class. The singificance of Quesnay's idea consists in his theore- tical examination of the structure of the national economy as a process of reproduction of the social product. The na- tional income and the net income of society (surplus value) are created in the process of reproduction, after compensa- tion of the material outlays ("avances", using Quesnay's terminology). The surplus value is formed by remunerating out of the national income the means of existence consutned by the producers of the social product. Quesnay's genius manifested itself in his treatment of numerous individual economic acts in their entity, in their integrity, as relations between the principal classes. I-le attempted to give a quan- titative characteristic of the circulation of commodities and services between producers and consumers, between the productive class and the class of proprietors. The monetary Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 3* 0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 flows in his tables was also correctly Pxpl&I ned as being entirely conditioned by the circulation and production of commodities, In other words, by the process of capital eir- cul anon. In his letter to F. Engles dated July 6, 1863 H' K. Marx Presented his own "economic table" with which he substi. tuted Qiios,lav's table, Marx's economic table was based (as Quesnay's table) on the principle of simple reproduction, I. e., reproduction of the social product and the national in- come in invariable volumes. K. Marx arranges his table gra- phically as dotted and continuous lines characterizing the flow of material values created in the process of social pro- duction. The principally new feature of Marx's economic table Is the double approach to the analysis of the formation of the social product and national income. This double analysis consisted in a simultaneous study of all the elements of reproduction from two points of view: 1. the value approach envisaging the singling out of previou- si yembodied labour in the form of the constant capital outlays (materials, fuels, depletion of the implements of work), the expenditure of live-labour in the form of variable capital outlay (for remuneration of labour power), and surplus value as the increment of the product created by the live-labour over the necessary means of existence; 2. the physic substance approach according to which all the outwit of products is subdivided into means of pro- duction (machines and materials) and the vital means of consumption. In Marx's economic table the continuous lines characte- rize the replenishment of the constant and variable capital out of the social product, while the dotted lines represent the formation of the national income as a part of the social product as well as its distribution into wages, employers income, interest, and land-rent. Marx's economic table of 1863 characterizes simple repro- duction; therefore the surplus value is entirely consumed by the capitalists and no accumulation takes place. But later in the 2nd volume of "Capital" K. Marx elaborated his scheme *) See Marx/Engels, Gesarritausgabe (Berlin, 1930), DrItte Abtel- lung, Band 3, SS. 148-152. 10 of simple reproduction and essentially supplemented it with a scheme of large-scale reproduction, which is also based on a two-sided analysis of the elements of production; from the value standpoint and from the standpoint of the two main subdivisions of social production (the produ- ction of means of consumption and the production of means of pro(uction). This latter standpoint determines the phy- sical structure of production. The new and Oben t al element to be introduced was the subdivision of the surplus value into the accumulated and consumed parts. The numerical examples of the Marx's model of large-scale reproduction can be represented in the following economic matrix of figures: Matrix of the Marx scheme of large-scale reproduction T1 C V I 4000 1000 II 1500 750 P 5500 1750 12 C V I 4400 1100 II 1600 800 P 6000 1900 T3 1 4890 1210 11 1760 880 P 6600 2090 Mg Nip 500 500 6000 150 600 3000 650 1100 9000 Mg Mp GOO 500 190 610 790 1110 (1210) (880) (2090) 6600 3200 9800 7260 3520 10 780 In the economic matrix of the scheme of large-scale re- production the following designations are used: Ti? the current stage of production, T2? the next production cycle, T3? the subsequent production cycle; the Roman figures I and II define the basic subdivisions of social production (I ? the production of means of production, and II the production of means of existence); the Latin letters P ? va- lue of the social product, C outlay of past embodied la- bour (Constant capital), V ? remunerated part of live-la- '" K. Marx "Capital", V. 11, (Chicago, 1913), pp. 596-600. 11 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? ClA-RDP81-01O43R0O13QflflRfffl ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 boa (variable capital under capitalism or the product remune- rating the worker under socialism), M ? the surplus product created in the process of production (surplus value under capitalism or the product for society under socia)ism). The surplus product is subdivided into Mq ? the accu- mulated part used for broadening the scale of production and Mp ? consumed part of surplus product, I. e., the part of the income of the society which is mostly consumed in the non-productive sphere (e. g? by the capitalist as a profit). The matrix form of the scheme of large-scale reproduction vivedly illustrates the laws discovered by K. Marx as well as the mutual relations between individual elements of so- cial production, In the case of simple reproduction the value of the product in row I is equal to the value of the product in column C, while the value of the product in row II is equal to the value of the product in columns.V and M. On the ba- sis of these equations K. Marx discovered a remarkable inter- relation inherent in simple reproduction, according to which the material input into the production of means of consump- tion (Ca) equals the income cf sociaty created in the sphere of production of means of production (Vii- MO. In the case of large-scale reproduction the income (Vi+ Mt) created in the sphere of production of means of production must be lar- ger than the material input (Ce) in the sphere of production of means of consumption. V. I. Lenin attached great importance to this thesis and considered the interrelation between V1-1.- Mi and C;) as being applicable "...even in pure communism" *. Lenin also noted another equation inherent in simple reproduction which he formulated as follows",., the total value newly created during a year (in both subdivisions) should be equal to the gross, value of the product in the form of consumer goas" (I. e., M1-1-- V.2+ M11.= VC-I- ). As for large-scale reproduction the equation of row I to. column C is also valid if Pr? the value of the product in row 1 (1, e., of the product existing in the form of means of production) is taken for T,, while tl.e value in column C ? for T (the subsequent production cycle). Similar equations, hold true if Pc? the value of the product in row II e., of shornik" ("Lenin's collected works"), vol. XI, p. 349 (Moscow. 1.929) the product existing in the form of means of consumption Is taken for T1, while in columns V and Mp the totals of both subdivisions are taken for the period T.A. These interrelations can easily be illustrated by the numerical example cited above in the economic matrix of the model of large-scale reproduction. These regularities of large-scale reproduction formulated by K. Marx and V. 1, Lenin are ennfirmv(l by ihe experience acquired by the Central Statistical Office of the U. S. S, R. in the compution of balance-sheets of the national echnomy. In his Work "Concerning the so-called question of markets" I" V. I. Lenin examined a version of the model of large-scale reproduction taking into account the technical progress, I. e., the increase in the organic composition of current out- lays and the growth of the ratio between CI and VI. In this work V. I. Lenin subdivided the production of means of pro- duction into two parts (according to the destination of the product): a) for the sphere of production of means of production and b) for the sphere of production of means of col sump lion. An examination of numerical examples allowed! V. I. Lenin to formulate another extremely important regularity, name- ly, that in conditions of technical progress largo-scaie repro- duction can be effected provided the growth of the production of means of production outstrips the production of means of consumption. Moreover, inside the sphere of production of means of production, the production for the needs of this sphere itself grows at a quicker rate than production for the sphere producing means of consumption The new regularities of large-scale reproduction discove- red by V. I. Lenin were of great importance for the planning of socialist industrialization in the Soviet Union, since they made it possible to transform an underdeveloped agricul- tural country into a mighty advanced industrial power wi- thin a historically short period. In constructing balance-sheets of the national economy Soviet economists and statiSticians rely on Marx's economic theory and on his model of large-scale reproduction, * V. I. Lenin. Concerning the so-called question of markets, (Moscow, 1954), pp. 10-11. " Ibid, pp, 17 ? 19. 12! Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 But in the entirely now conditions of the socialist society there naturaly arises the acute need for profound theoreti- cal investigation in the theory and practice of compiling tables and balance-sheets of socialist economy. Work in this sphere is continuing and Soviet economists and stati- sticians may have to overcome serious difficulties in future. The first experiment in analysing the structure of the national economy and in compiling balances of the national economy (based on the accounting data of state statistics) was made in the Soviet Union in 1923-1924. The balance of the national economy was compiled by the Central Stati- stical Office of the U. S. S. R. in conformity with the govern- ment decision of June 21, 1924. and was published in 1920. In a summary table of the balance of the national economy the following economic branches were singled out: agricul- ture, industry, construction, trade, transport, non-productive sphere. Agriculture was subdivided into cultivation of land and meadows, livestock breeding, forestry, fishery and hun- ting. Industry was subdivided into mining and manufactu- ring industry. In the mining industry extraction and primary treatment of minerals (and separately of mineral fuels) were singled out. The manufacturing industry was subdivided into 11 branches. Moreover a separate account was taken of publi- shing. Agricultural, industrial, and constructional production was subdivided into the following balance-sheet groups: a) consumer goods, b) materials, c) fuels, d) implements of production. A most important part of the summary table of the na- tional economy was the, account of the turnover of material values which characterized the production and consumption of the most important kinds of products in the economic branches as well as their circulation in the non-productive sphere. For each branch of agriculture, mining, and manufac- turing industries and for construction both the amount and the list of products used by each branch were determined. But the chess-board balance-sheet of production and consump. Balans narochiogo khozyaistva Soytiza SSR 1923-24 gat+, (The Omionce of the Soviet economy 1923-94), Moscow, 1926. 1.4. non was comp ii ted only for the three consolidated spheres of the national economy: industry, agriculture and costru? ction. The balance-sheet made it possible to compute the share of productive consumption by agriculture, industry, constru- ction, transport and trade in the gross output available for distribution. The balance-sheet also made possible in the case of such economic branch the determination of the share of the gross output that went for personal consumption and for consumption by institutions of the non-production sphere. At the same time not only the distribution of the output of a given branch of production between other branches was determined, but also its material outlays, the expenditures on wages, remuneration for services of transport and trade and other items of expenditure (rent, taxes, etc.). The compilers of the balance-sheet of the national eco- nomy stressed the importance of two aspects of the analysis of the structure of the national economy. The first aspect was the distribution of material values according to the bran- ches of their production and consumption (designation) singling out productive consumption and final consumption. The second aspect was the compution of the total current outlays of different economic branches (input of materials, fuels and other material values, wages, the outlay of trans- port and trade into a given economic branch, taxes, etc.). But the compution of current outlays in each economic branch could only be partial in the first balance-sheet of the national economy , ? After this first experiment the Central Statistical Office of the U. S. S. R. during thirty years annually compiles ba- lances-sheets of the national economy based on the annual reports received from all the enterprises and institutions of the country. The accounting balance-sheets of the national economy are widely used by the planning authorities in constructing the planned balance-sheets of the national eco- nomy for the comming year and for the years of the nearest five-year period. The experience accumulated during many years and the techniques of compiling the balance-sheets of the national economy was discussed at the All Union Conference of So- viet Statisticians held in June, 1957. The Conference discus- sed a report deliverwl by V. A. Sobol ?The Principal Metho- 4 Report g Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 dologleal Problems of the Accounting Balance of the Natio,,_ nal Economy". The conference decided in favour of inaugura- ting the compution of balance-sheets of the national economy in each Soviet Republic and also of commencing an annual study of interregional circulation of material values (mutual supplies of about a hundred Councils of People's Economy of different regions). A study of Interregional transactions will be combined with a study of the interrelations between the different branches of industry and of the national eco- nomy, In the recent years in various countries of the world the use of the balance-sheet method in studying the structure of the national economy is developing on an ever increasing scale. In 1933 in Germany a work by F. Gruenig * was pu- blished, On the basis of the available statistical data this work showed for 1929 the movement of the national product from producers to consumers taking into account the subdi- visions of output into means of production and MUMS of consumption. This work also estimated the value created in different branches of the national economy and showed the consumption of this new value in the productive and non- productive spheres. In West-European literature it is considered that F. Gruenig anticipated the so-called "Leontief matrices"**, But it is necessary to note that Wassily Leontief's work was undoubtedly mu tenced by the compution of the first balance- sheets of the national economy of the U. S. S. R. (1923- 1924) which he knew from literature. In this respect it is worth noting that in the first balance. sheet of the national economy of the U. S. S. R. the main attention was devoted to the account of the turnover of ma- terial values which made it possible to determine not only the input coefficients of one economic branch into the pro- duction of another branch but also to find out the personal consumption (particular of households). In 1941 Wassily Leontief's famous work was published. Its principal ideas were set forth by the author in 1931 before the National Bureau of Economic Research. In his book * Ferdinand Gruenig, "Der Wirtschaftskreislauf", (M?nchen, 1933). ** See, e, g., the ob,ections of E. Fuerst in his study "Matrix as a tool to .macro-accounting". The review of economics and statistics, February 1955, Ng 16 W. Leontief used the new method of input-output analysis. Being a variety of the balance-sheet method this method Is a combination of two aspects of production analysis: the de- termination of the Input in production of a given economic branch, and the investigation of the distribution of its output between other branches, Such a double analysis singles uut the share accruing to final consumption in households, to institutions of the non-productive sphere, to capital invest- ments Into fixed and working funds, as well as to exports. Using American census data W. L?ontief compiled balance- sheet tables for 1919-1929 and later on for 1939 *. More- over the Bureau of Labour Statistics compiled balance-sheet tables of the United States economy for 1947 (D. Evance and M. Hoffenberg) The balance-sheet method of analysing the structure of national economy is at present also widely used in other coun- tries of the world. A survey of these works is given in a spe- cial publication of the Economic ammission for Europe ***, Of special significance are the balance-sheet tables analysing the structure of the national economy of the United Kingdom (1947 and 1950) ****, The balance-sheet study of the natio- nal economy of France carried out by the Institute of Stati- stics and Economic Investigation of the Ministry of Finance, France ***** is also singular in character. III III 41 The balance-sheet tables which analyze the structure of the national economy usually are very complicated. They consist of a whole system of statistical tables. Usually the main summary balance-sheet table is also very complicated. In Anglo-American studies the summary balance-sheet tables are sometimes subdivided into four quadrangles. * W. Leontief, "The structure of the American economy 1919=-19291 Cambridge, 1941; and W. Leontief, "The structure of the American, economy 1919-1939", New York, 1951. ** D. Evance and M. Hoffenberg, "An interindustry relations study for 1947,. The review of economics and statistics, May 1952. *** European Economic Bulletin, v. 8, May 1956, Genova. **** National Income and Expenditure, London, 1950 and 1953 res. pectively. ***** "Rapport sur les comptes de la nation" vol. If annexe 3, pp. 305? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 17 i I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 The first (internal) quadrangle characterizes the purchases and sales relating to the subjects of work (materials, fuels) of diffferent branches of material production. This quadrangle has the form of a chess-board with the same subdivisions into branches both in the rows and in the columns. The columns show the material input into a given branch of production. The rows show the sales of the output of a given branch to other branches of production. Therefore the structure of indu- strial consumption for production purposes is characterized. The second quadrangle In such tables shows the final consumers of the product of each branch (consumption by the population, consumption by Institutions, formation of the fixed and working funds, exports). The third quadrangle consists on the whole of the elements of national income (wages and the surplus value in the form of profits, rent and laxes),Here also data on imports and depre- tiation are usually placed. The fourth quadrangle includes the items characterizing the internal accounts connected with the 'production and consumption of the national income. Such a construction of the summary balance-sheet table is typical, for example, to the English studies published in the so-called ?131 no books" '''. The structure of the balance- sheet tables of the US national economy is analogous **. But usually in the USA the third quadrangle is reduced to one line ?Household service" in which wages, profit, inter- est, rent, and depretiation are heaped together. The economic tables in French literature which represent a chess-board balance-sheet have a very specific arrange- ment Both the rows and the columns of the summary table have subdivisions which characterize the operations made by economic units (enterprises, institutions, indivi- duals, etc.). In the subject and 'predicate of the table three kinds of account are considered according to the following operations: accounts of economic activities, payment accounts and the accounts of capital investments. In the accounts * See the table for 1947 and 1950 in ?National income and ex- penditure" 1950 and 1953 respectively; London. ** See for example, W. Leontief?.Stuclies in the structure of the American economy" New York, 1953 and ?Input-output analysis: an appraisal", New York, 1955, 4** Statistiques et 6tucles financieres,M 100, avril 1957, Paris pp. 424-425. 18 of economic activities the main branches of production, the leading subdivisions of the non-productive sphere (admini- stration, service) and the population (hired workers and employees, non-gainfully employed population) are singled out. The main production branches are also destinguished In the account of capital investments. Especially detailed spe- cifications are made in the sections of the balance-sheet deal- ing with various payments and transactions (commodity. credit, etc.) and with operations characterizing the redi- stribution of the income (taxes, subsidies, social insurance dues, compensation of losses, etc.). The arrangement of the summary balance-sheet of the national economy of the U. S. S. R. differs essentially from the One used in Anglo-American and West-European countries. First of all the table of interrelations between the individual branches of production (mutual transactions, sales and purchases) is only auxiliary in the system of tables con- stituting the balance-sheet of the national economy. Its totals are included in the summary table only under three headings (production of the objects of labour, production of the implements of production and production of means of consumption). The main characteristic feature of Soviet summary table is that in the horizontal rows it consists of three large sub- divisions: I) production of material values, 2) non-productive organizations and institutions and 3) population. Material production in turn is subdivided into the follow- ing branches: industry, agriculture, forestry, constru- ction, transport and communication, trade, state purchases and the provision of capital goods and materials to enter- prises. Moreover the sphere of material production is subdivided into social sectors: state, cooperative and collective-farm enferprises, auxiliary economies of collective farmers, workers and employees, economies of 'individual farmers and uncooperated craftsmen. The non-productive sphere consists of education, science, art, public health, housing and communal enterprises and communal services, as well as social organizations and institutions of state admi- nistration and defence. In the population section workers, employees and peasants are distinguished. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 19 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 In the sphere of 11ltliCriol production (beside the sub- divisions into the branches of production and into social sectors) the production of means of consumption and of means of production is differentiated (with further divisions of the latters into the means of production for the needs of this sphere, itself and those for the production of means of consumption). As to the production of means of consump- tion, production for personal consumption is differentiated from production for the consumption of society as a whole, The summary table also has entries characterizing the production of implements of labour, objects of labour and means of consumption. This subdivision is very important for the characteristics of the general structure of the social product. As to the gross social product, the corresponding columns of the summary table have entries making it possible to de- termine the outlays necessary for reproduction (i. e., the social value). These data are subdivided into the input of previous labour (separately the depreciation of the imple- ments of labour, and separately the input of the objects of labour) and the input of live-labour. The input of live-labour (which creates the national income) is calculated on the basis of the wage fund (the pro- thifq for remunerating the workers) and the fund for social needs (the product for society). In the columns of the summary table the final utilization of the national product is also shown (with special reference to the compensation the con- sumption, the accumulation and reserves funds and to the losses.) In separate quadrangles of the summary table the social product is shown in production prices, consumption prices and in units of national value. In view of all this the summary table makes ,it possible to determine deviations between costs and sales prices in different economic branches as well as to gauge the redistri- butions due to difference in sales prices of the producer and the consumer prices. The redistribution of the social product and the national income can also be studied by comparing data of various payments and receipts. In the auxiliary table for each branch of material production, for the non-produ- ctive sphere and for the population there is a comparison of payments and receipts effected through such channels as the state budget, the credit system, state insurance, social 20 'insurance, savings-banks. Similar data is given comer fling such payments as wages, remunerations for services' pensions, grants, scholarships, etc, The redistribution of the national income is also fICC011nied by comparing the increase of or decrease in ready cash, debts,etc, Comparisons of incomes and expenditures in each economic branch and in the house- holds make it possible to compile a balance of the redistri- bution of the national income. The summary table shows the circulation of the social product based on a comparison in each economic branch of pur- chases and sales of output and also the redistribution resul- ting from the circulation of the national product. The summary table also shows the balance of fixed and circulating funds by comparing their values in the beginning and at the end of the year and by takIns into account the increase or decrease of the fixed and current assets as shown in the entry "final use of the social product". The balance of work-done and of labour-power (as well as the balance of cash personal incomes and expendi- tures) is given in auxiliary tables. The data on labour resources (the number of working per- sonnel in the beginning and at the end of the year and the number of mandays worked) are usually given in the beyond the balance entries of the summary balance-sheet table. This makes it possible to express all the items of the balance- sheet in relative values regarding the available labour and material resources (fixed funds). Thus the subject (rows) of the summary table provides an analysis of the national economy inside the sphere of the material production, in the branches of the non-productive sphere, as well as the class structure of the population. The productive sphere is analysed in three aspects distingui- shing: a) the main subdivisions of social production (produ- ction of means of production and production of means of consumption), b) the principal branches of production (indu- stry, agriculture, construction, transport and communica- tion, supply and trade), c) the main social sectors (state se- ctor, collective-farm and cooperative sector, auxiliary and personal economies of collective farmers, workers and emplo- yees, economies of individual farmers and non-cooperated craftsmen). In the predicate (columns) of the summary table an analysis is made in the following aspects: 1) division of Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 21 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 social production into the implements of labour, objects of labour and means of consumption, 2) dissection of popular production into input of the previous labour and Input of the live-labour (with the singling out of the value of the product remunerating the workers and the product for society), 3) de- termination of the final use of the national product (compen- sation fund, fund of accumulation and reserves), 4) redistri- bution of the national Income and of the product for society, 5) circulation of the social product. Despite such complicated subdivisions, the 1ble consists of 25 elementary tables (quadr- angles): this is a result of the subdivision of the subject and predicate of the table into five sections each, In Soviet literature the methodology of compiling balance- sheet of the national economy is given In general works on economic statistics. Examples of balance-sheet tables as they are compiled by Soviet, American, English and French economic statistics are given in the Appendices. A comparison shows the essential difference not only in the formal arrangement of the balance- sheet tables, but also in their contents. The balance-sheet of the Soviet economy (Appendix I) is based on the theory of reproduction of the social product according to its component elements in value form (provi- sions for the compensation of consumed elements of produ- ction, newly created value, and the value of the surplus product as a part of the newly created value) and in their physical form (implements of production, subjects of work, means of consumption). The analysis of the creation and growth of the social product, of its distribution and redi- stribution is the principal task pursued by the compution of the balance-sheets of the national economy of the U. S. S. R. The essence of the balance-sheet of the American natio- nal economy (Appendix 2) is the analysis of the interdepen- dence of industries in their mutual purchases and sales. The evaluation of the direct and indirect demand of one indu- .1alwayialaillia??????????401111?6111116?1.4eIa .Statistikau (?Statistics") Moscow, Gostatizdat, 1956, P; Pp. 452-453. stry to another Is the Main task of the American balance- sheet tables. The distinguishing feature of this scheme is that no aggregating of the industries into larger economic groups is done. Industrial branches, construction, and agriculture do not constitute a special sphere of production of material values and the non-productive sphere is not singled out. Therefore I present the American table (see Appendix 2) a little differently than it was originally published. I tried to single out the larger subdivisions of the national economy by regrouping and summing up the rows and columns of the American table. The numbers of the rows and the columns of the original table are shown in brackets in the broader subdivisions grouped by me, From our point of view the prin- cipal deficiency of the American scheme is that it pays little attention to the distinguishing of the elements of the natio- nal income. In the "household" entry, for example, quite different economic categories are mixed: wages of workers, salaries of employees, capitalist profits, interest, rent and even depreciation allowances. In this table accumulation is also not clearly enough distinguished from consumption. Of greater interest is the English table analysing the national economy (Appendix 3), which is distinctly divided into four quadrangles. But even in this table the third quad- rangle (elements of the national income) and the second quadrangle (elements of the final consumption and accumu- lation) are insufficiently scrutinized. Soviet economists and statisticiars think that the second and third quadrangles are of primary importance. One of the strongest sides of the English scheme is that it makes possible an analysis of the items of quadrangles II and III from the point of view of the branches which are examined in the first internal quad- rangle (characterizing the interindustry flow of materials, fuels and services). As to the American table, the dominant, one might say, exclusive attention is paid to the first quadr- angle while the second and the third quadrangles are va- guely subdivided; moreover, the rows and columns of these quadrangles often mix quite different economic catego- ries. In the French balance-sheet table (Appendix 4) the finan- cial aspect of the structure of the national economy is pre- dominant. This leads to an extremely detailed investigation of various mutual settlements, payments, and receipts. 5 Repork 23 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 One of the merits of the Franch table is the special alien. tion paid to the accounting of capital investments-, But neither the French nor the Anglo-American tables subdivide the eapital investments and the invested values into fixed and turnover funds of the productive sphere and separately Of the non-productive sphere. Nor is there a clear differentia- tion between the means of production and the means of con- sumption. Changes in the national product are usually alie- nated from changes in the fixed funds. The arrangements of the balance-tables which analyze the structure of the national economy renders it impossible to use the tables compiled by Western economists and stati- sticians for the analysis of such principal economic propor- tions as the relation between the sphere of production of means of production and the sphere of production of means of consumption, the quantitative relations ,between the provi- sions for the compensation of the consumed elements of production and the value of the necessary product (used for remunerating the value of the means of existence of the work- ers of the sphere of material production) as well as the value Of the surplus product. As a rule, the attention of Western economists and stati- sticians is entirely devoted to determining the coefficients that characterize tile technical interrelations between indi- vidual branches of production as expressed in the direct and indirect demands of one economic branch to another; usually these demands pertain to services and to the objects of work (materials, fuels). This is, of course, an essential, but not the most important aspect of the analysis of the national economy. When calculating balances of the national economy it is more important to provide larger possibilities for social and economic analysis, singling out for this purpose the main subdivisions and taking into account the forms of property ownership and the class structure of the society. While paying necessary attention to the interindustry relations coefficients based on the productive consumption characteristics (the first quadrangle of the Anglo-American tables), Soviet economists and statisticians rightly direct their attention to the study of the principal structural pro- portions of the national economy. Among them, for example, the proportions' expressing the relations between the sphere, of material production, the non-productive sphere and the 24 sphere of social consumption, Another example: the ratio between consumption and accumulation. Of great importance are the proportions which determine the organic structure of the outlay of social production, e, 6/., the ratio between the material outlays and the workers fund of wages in the sphere of the material production. Among the propoitions of speci- fic importance is the ratio between the surplus product (used to meet the social requirements and the needs of increasing the scale of reproduction) and the necessary product (consi- sting of the means of existence of the workers in the sphere of material production), All these proportions are considered by the Soviet econo- mists and statisticians not as constant, but as variables which change with the development of the productive forces of society. Being a new and an intensively developing branch of economic statistics, the analysis of the structure of the na- tional economy based on the balance-sheet method needs to be broadly and thoroughly discussed by the scientists of different countries, the more so because of the very serious differences existing now in the very approach to this compli- cated scientific problem. S u in in a r y 1. The subject of economic statistics is the national eco- nomy as a whole and its structure. The balance-sheet method is its main method. Its main characteristic features are: a) the use of value characteristics; b) the widespread use of industrial and economic classifications; c) the use of double counting and duplex accounts of the elements of the balance- sheet; d) matrix arrangement 'of economic data; e) orthogonal balancing of economic indices and orthogonal matching of balance table parts (quadrangles), From an economic point of view the balance-sheet of the national economy is based on a numerical expression of the appropriate economic mo- del. This model usually shows the basic structural subdivi- sion of the national economy (into productive sphere, non- productive sphere and personal (individual) consumption) as well as the principal elements of the social product (pro- visions for the compensation of the consumed elements of production, newly created value subdivided into the value 5* 25 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? A. E-60008000?1,0n1?1701-0-1-8dCll-V10 ? 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Peq!sseloaCI Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 tisticai science, Therefore a discussion of its methodological foundations by the scientists of different countries is very important for the development of social sciences and espe. daily of economic statistics, Such a discussion is especially important because at present there are serious differences in the approach to a scientific solution of the problem of analysing the structure of national economy, INDEX METHOD THEORY AND PRACTICAL APPLICATION IN THE U. S. S. R. by T. V. R y a bu shk in The main principles of index calculation were formulated in Soviet statistics about thirty years ago*. By that time extensive practical experience had been accumulated in cal- culating index numbers in various fields of economic activ- ity. In the following years the sphere of index application was greatly broadened. In a brief report it is possible to dwell only on the most general questions of the theory of index numbers and on the most important features of the practical application of index numbers. From the very beginning of its development Soviet sta- tistics rejected the formal mathematical approach to the problem of index numbers. It considers index numbers first of all as an economic characteristics. Thus, the problem of index numbers is a problem of measuring correctly the cor- responding economic processes. The selection of the mathe- matial forms of index numbers of their weights, etc., is determined by the character of these processes. The divers- ity of economic phenomena naturally must lead .to diffe- ent methods of measurement. Therefore it is wrong to raise the question of selecting an "ideal" index number which could be equally applied to different economic processes and pheno- * This is chiefly due to the works of prof. Starovsky. See the chap- ter "Index numbers" written by him for the course: "The Theory of Mathe- matical Statistics", M. 1930. The rble of index methods of economic and statistical analysis was elucidated by academician V. S. Nemchinov in his course: "Agricultural Statistics with Foindations of the Gereral The- ory", M. 1945 (Section: "Index Method of Analysis"). Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080007-3 20 ?-Z0008000?1,0n1?1701-0-1-8dCW-V10 O/0/O eseeiej .104 panaiddv Ado0 PazWeS -4-led LI! 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In the practice of planning and accounting in the U. S. S. R wide-spread use is made of the index numbers of output cost prices (first and foremost of industrial output). Their constru- ction is based generally on the nme principles as the price Indices, The economic meaning of these index numbers is that they express the results of the economic activities of enterprises or construction works by means of comparing actual expenditures on the production of goods with normative expeditures. Since accounting inside enterprises always makes possible the determination directly or Indirectly of cost price per unit of a given product, the calculation of the cost price index is effected directly through aggregating, namely I where z represents the cost price of a unit Ezoch in the basis and current periods. Saving or over-expenditure by the enterprise is easily calculated with the help of this index. Nevertheless the compution of this index number for a more or less lengthy period of time encounters: serious obstacles in view of a rapid growth in industrial production and a change in the list of items produced. The cost price index differs from that of retjail prices in that it is always calculated according to a strictly determined output assort- ment. The commodity compositionof the entire retail turn- over is rather stable. The changes in it must be practically taken into consideration only when comparing very long pe- riods of time (we do not touch here the questions of changes in grading and quality of goods, etc.). On the contrary, the commodity composition of this or that industrial branch chan- ges rapidly and rather considerably (except extractive and food industry). As an ext-imple we may point to the fact that in mechanical engineering the specific weight of comparable production is usually equal to about 50 to 50%' and in some branches falls to 25 to 30%. Owing to this, the-cost price index number and other economic characteristics related to the whole list of produced items become incomparable. 36 As a rule, cost price index numbers are determined for two adjacent calendary years. At the same time the national economic plan determines the reduction of cost prices that should take place during a five-year period. A direct compa- rison between the initial and final period, if the list of items produced has changed greatly may lend, in a number of cases to erroneous conclusions. Multiplication of chain indices does not give better results. The idea is put forward of using other characteristics for the measurement of reductions in cost prices, In particular, economists and statisticians are experimenting with the ratio of cost prices in the gross or in the salable (cash) output. A change in this ratio might to a certain extent be a possible characteristics. Essen- tially this index number is a variety of the indices with variable composition. It is free from a close dependence on a permanent list of items produced. But this "freedom" is bought at a very expensive price. Now the change of index number is influenced not only by the cost of production level but also by the changes in the output structure and even in the ratio between the output cost elements. In this case the question of a system of output evaluation is also complicated. Sped lie problems arise in calculating the index number of physical volume of output, the most wide-spiead form of which is the index of industrial production. In the U. S. A. and Western Europe preference is given to the mean arith- metical form of this index calculated for a set of products according to the formula I = Lid (where d is the specific weight of products in industrial production; the methods of determining this weight may be different). In this case also Soviet statistics take as a basis the ratio between comparable characteristics of the volume of the whole production in the base and current 'years; algebraicaly lp the ratio is I ? Although both cited formulas are ? Imo algebraically identical, they express a difference in approach to the problem on index numbers. In the first case the index number is a certain mean characteristics of the dynamics of production in a selection totality which is then extended to the general totality. In the second case we deal with an accu- rate determination of the change in the whole mass of pro- duction in a given economic branch and in the whole natio- 37 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 nal economy. A certain base price (P?) is not the only possible common measure of production. Theoretically a more convenient measure would be the base expenditures of labour per unit of production (t), But practical difficulties with the all round determination of these expenditures deprive us of the possibility of calcula- ting index numbers in this form. None the less it is indispu- table that this Is the method of the future. The construction of the index of industrial production in the U. S. S. R. is specific In that the index number is computed directly by summing up the data included in the accounts of the enterprises. Each industrial enterprise in the U. S. S. R. always evaluates its production both in cur- rent and base prices because the planned total volume of industrial production is determined in base prices. Thus the problem of selection of products, weighting, etc., does not exist for our state statistics. In these circumstances an impor- tant methodological question is that of changing the list of items and of selecting the base price. During almost twenty five years the base prices for enterprises and state statistics were the prices of 1926-27. In their time they played a large positive role in strengthening the planned economy and in making numerous summary calculations, But as the list of items of production changed and the industry produced still larger and larger quantities of new products which had not been manufactured in 1926, the drawbacks of the system of evaluating in said prices manifested itself more and more clearly. For the new products (especially In mechanical engineering) it was necessary to take either the prices of the first year of their large-scale production or some calculated prices, Later on new prices were adopted for measuring the dynamics of production at first those of 1951 and then of 1956. Our index numbers were criticized by some foreign econo., mists and statisticians. Indices based on a set of products were put forward as a contrast. It is impossible to recognize this criticism as convincing, the more so that many of its arguments were based on misunderstandings. In this case the contrasting of index numbers covering the whole totality of products and index numbers based on a set of products is meaning less. Index numbers for raw materials and generaliy for large-scale homogeneous goods in conditions of rapid 38 Industrial growth and variations of the lists of produced items cannot be recognized as sufficiently representative for the whole mass of industrial production. The use of different me- thods for registering the dynamics of the output of new indu- strial branches and new kinds of products is inevitable. The most suitable is the method of overall evaluation of the whole production in comparable prices, providing the latter are changed in view of changes in the price formation process. The index numbers of physical volume of agricultural production are constructed according to the principles stated above. Only in this case it is calculated directly by the Cen- tral Statistical Office because agricultural enterprises do not make a double evaluation of their production. The considerably smaller list of items of agricultural production as compared with industrial makes it possible to centralize the evaluation of the whole mass of agricultural output in comparable prices. The index numbers of physical volume of the national income which is considered by Soviet statistics as the net froduct created in the branches of material production is also calculated on the basis of evaluating the whole mass of national income in comparable prices, This is done by subtracting from the aggregate product of industry and agriculture and nf some other economic branches the material expenditures in these branches (also in comparable prices). Here it is necessary to resort to many additional calculations and valuations, because the volum of material expenditures In comparable prices is not determined by the enterprises. Within this paper it is impossible and unnecessary to dwell in details on these calculations. The index of physical volume of turnover (sales) is determined by dividing the value of the mass of commodities by the price index. The present- (lay organization of the statistics of goods turnover in the state and cooperative trade does not give the possiblity of direct measurement in comparable prices. Many interesting questions pose themselves in the analy- sis of the dynamics of labour productivity. Some of them still remain without a satisfactory solution. The difficulties connected with this analysis are partially due to the fact that it is not always possible to find an adequate statistical interpretation for the economic category of labour productiv- ity. In its general form the level of labour productivity is Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 3f) Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 known to be a ratio between the volume of production and labour expenditure (I. e,, 1-2,), The different contents given to the numerator and denominator of this formula gave birth to numerous characteristics of labour productivity. First of all the question arises whether it is necessary to calculate productivity only on the basis of current labour expenditures (expressed, for example, in man-days or man-hours) or is It also necessary to take into consideration past labour expen- ditures embodied in the product. The most energetic champion of the latter standpoint Is academician Strumilin who thinks it possible to measure these labour expenditures at least by summing the ratio between the costs of the used mate- rials, etc., and the average level of wages with the ratio be- tween the product for society and the level of wages. The majority of Soviet economists and statisticians however consider that the notion of labour productivity is appli- cable only to living labour. Till recently characteristics of labour productivity were computed by Soviet industrial statistics only for industrial workers. At the scientific conference held in December 1956 by the U. S. S. R. Academy of Sciences, the Central Stati- stical Office and the Ministry of Higher Education to discuss problems of labour productivity the question was raised of calculating additional index numbers having in view two versions: a) calculation of labour productivity for the whole body of workers, engineers and technicians and b) calculation of labour productivity for the whole personnel of workers and employees engaged in industry. The production index (in price measurement) applied to the dynamics of labour productivity can be represented at least in three versions: a) in the form of gross output, b) com- modity output and c) net output. The use of index numbers of net output for measuring labour productivity was widely discussed at the above mentioned conference. Strong obje- ctions were made against it. The use of this index numbers cannot be considured rational even from a theoretical stand- point. Labour productivity is expressed not so much in the newly created value as in the ever increasing amount of past labour embodied and transferred to the product. Thus the index number of labour productivity measured on the basis of net output will give a narrow characteristics of the changes 40 In production processes broungt about by technical progress. Moreover it will be alienated from the characteristics of the volume of production. Of course in some cases the influence of price components comprising or determining the index number of gross output may give an erroneous idea of labour productivity. Theo- retically it has long been proven that the best kind of index number for labour productivity is the one which is determi- ned by calculating labour expenditures in the created pro- duct * and therefore can easily be coordinated with the index of production also expressed through these expenditures. Because of difficulties in accounting It is practically useless to talk about any universal utilization of this index number form. Thus with all their drawbacks the value characteri- stics and primarily those of gross output remain the main characteristics of labour productivity. This is so because it Is impossible on the scale of the national economy or of se- parate economic branches and in many cases even on the scale of a separate enterprise to calculate any other summary index number which could characterize the changes taking place in labour productivity as fully as the price index, At the same time the need is evident in calculating a number of corrective coefficients for the index of gross output. From the algebraic expressions for the index of labour productivity based on gross output I ? ; V.9 it is evident that all changes in the output structure effect its size. Hence the purpose of correction coefficients for this index number is to eliminate the influence of the structure on the level of labour productivity. This is especially impor- tant for construction works in which the dynamics of output themselves are expressed in estimated prices. Thus the dy- namics and consequently the level of labour productivty is influenced by regional differences in the prices themselves as well as by differences in the structure and character of the construction work. One of the other methods of calculating index numbers of labour productivity (which was checked in practice) is the method proposed at one time by academician Strumilin, 1* 1. e., the formula I w ire I Is the expenditure per unit of roduct In the reference and current years. A Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 41 ?-Z0008000?1,0a1?1701-0-1-8dCll-V10 OZ/ZO/?1,0z eseeiej -104 panaiddv Ado Pez!4!ueS u! 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In this case the index of nominal wage Is initial, for it Is independent of other components and is the actual sum of money in the Pos. seslon of the workers and employees. In contradistinction to this the index of purchas:ng power always contains element of certain conditionality. The problem of interdependence of index numbers is also connected with the pestion of measuring the influence of the structure et the total on the index number. This influ- ence cannot be determined directly. The majority of econo- mists and statisticians think that this can be done by means of comparing the results of the calculation of two above men- timed indices with variable and fixed composition. Thus, for example, the index of labour productivity of fixed compo. Milan calculated according to the norms of time is expressed by I he formula I =I , while the index of variable compo- sitqion is - P11' - , In order to make the comparison of these Qi two indices more evident, the first one can be represented IM In the following form: From a comparison of Qi Qi these two forms it is evident that in the first case a change in the ctructure of the output does not exert any influence on the index number, and in the second case it directly influences it. A ratio between these two indices shows the mag- nitude of the influence or structural changes on the dynamics of labour productivity. A detailed study of this question carried out by V. Pe- regudov shows however that such a general coefficient is not enough for the analysis of the influence exerted by the structure ''. The structural factors themselves may be of different or- ders. A change in the composition of gross output even inde- pendently of price factors affects the productivity of labour. The dynamics of labour productivity is also influenced by the redistribution of the volume of production between enter- 41?101Mussommeaomonamommolmommo "I The result of this study can be found in his article "To the Ques? lion of the Theory of Index Method". Uchenye Zapisky po Statistike, t. 1. The criticism of his statements is given by I. Malyim in the Journal Wiestnik Statistik1", 1956, No6, 46 prises and economic branches as well as by the distribution of labour between separate enterprises and branches with different levels of labour productivity and by the fluctuations In this distribution, As for the changes in output composi- tion, or the list of items ptoduced prof. Savinsky an outstan- ding specialist in the field of industrial statistics, thinks that the most correct method of characterizing them is the compa- rison of indices which were weighted firstly according to the weights of the current period and secondly according to the weight of the base period "I Thus it becomes evident that only a series of various indices can properly reflect the mutual interlacing effects of various factors. Peregudov, for example, asserts that the index of labour productivity with fixed composition weighted according to the gross output of the base period will be more fitting than the usual index in characterising labour redi- stribution between economic branches. He also tried to prove that the index of structural changes is an independent type of indices, thus rejecting its interpretation as a ratio of two indices. A further study of this question semis neces- to us. S u m in a r y The present paper deals with the general questions of index theo7y and their treatment by Soviet statistics as well as with the main features of the practical application of index numbers in the U. S. S. R. Soviet statistics considers the pro- blem of index numbers as one of measuring correctly the cor- responding economic processes. The choice of mathematical form of index numbers, of their weights, etc., is determined by the character of these processes. The diversity of econo- mic phenomena naturally must lead to different methods of measurement. In many cases it is impossible to express See In particular his article "The Influence of Assortment Chan- ges on the Cost Price Index". Viestnic Statislikk, No3, 1956. Conformably to the aggregatIve index of labour productivity the requi- rements mentioned in the text mean a comparison of the following two qiEl a Ern indices-1? and 4., r---112 ' Their respective average indices are and 2.tiqo ---T? where To= 100, while Ti E ?T ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 47 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 all the distinguishing features of a given economic process through an index number, then it is necessary to create a sy- stem of index numbers which would allow, to a cuw thin degree, to avoid a narrow and over-simplified study of these distinguishing features, The interdependence of index numbers within such a system reflects the existing mutual dependence between the economic phenomena they measure, The paper sets forth some of the principal distinctions in the approach to the problem of index numbers in the U. S. S. R. on the one hand and in the U. S. A. and some Western E uropenn countries on the other, As is shown by sev- eral index numbers the task of determining the economic effect of this or that economic process determines the sele- ction of a suitable set of index numbers. It is not accidental that Soviet statistics prefers aggregate index number which make possible a direct economic grounding of the methods of measurement. The paper gives brief characteristics of the methods ol calculating index numbers of retail prices, real wages, volume of production, cost prices, and labour productivity, The author tried to elucidate the most important actual problems which everyday life puts before index number sta- tistics. The most difficult problems arise in connection with the creation of index numbers of cost prices and labour pro- ductivity. Many years of calculathig index numbers have shown that cost price aggregative index numbers determined by comparing actual expenditures on output with normative expenditures (according to the norms of the base period) although they answer the general theoretical requirements still are of small effect in conditions of rapid and essential changes in the list of items produced (this change taking place first and foremost in mechanical engineering). At present Soviet statisticians are discussing the possibility of using other index numbers in such cases, for example, those of expenditure per one rouble of commodity output. In measuring labour productivity the most rational index number form is the comparison between normative and current expenditure per given output volume. But in this ease difficulties in comprehensive accounting of labour expen- diture in each kind and variety of products rather than ,the change in the list of items necessitate the calculation of inlex numbers on the basis of price characteristics. The specific 48 I .0 structure of these index numbers as well as the characteristic features of price formation leave a deep impression on the movement of the characteristics of labour productivity. In the author's opinion, however, the problem can be solved not by searching for a universal and ?Ideal" index number but by creating a system of index numbers, and specifically, by using separate index numbers to correct the conclusions drown from the general price characteristics of labour produ- ctivity. The paper also touches upon some controversial pro- blems, for instance, the taking into account of past embo- died labour and the use of added value characteristics when measuring the dynamics of labour productivity. As to the problem of determining the influence of differ- ent factors on the increment of a given economic characte- ristic, the author also prefers to proceed from economic criteria rather than search for a formal mathematical way of solving this problem. The paper is concluded by a consideration of the que- stion If measuring the influence of the structure of the total on th level of the index number. In this case also the conclu- sion can be drawn, this influence can be correctly reflected only by series of different characteristics since these latter can be disintegrated into a number of components which correspond to the effect of different factors. In this case the use of different weighting systems may be recognized rational. ?????????IiiI??????iiia. Nal??? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 49 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 POPULATION CENSUS METHODS IN THE USSR by M. V. Pt uk It a Historic documents show that local enumerations of the population were carried out In Russia already in the 11th ? 12th centuries. In 1255-1257 and 1273 the Tatars organized crude per capita enumerations of the population, excluding the clergy. In 1646, 1678 and 1710 cadastral Cen- susinking was carried out throughout the country. In 1710 nil 'men and women (including the nobility) were taken into account and this census may be considered as the first attempt of registering the entire population of the country. With the introduction of capitation, tax the tax-paying popula- tion of the country was enumerated ten times, in accordance with the decrees of 1718, 1742, 1761, 1781, 1794, 1811, 1815, 1833, 1850 and 1856, Capitation tax was not paid by the pri- vileged groups of the population who were therefore exempt from the census. The tax was levied only on men, regardless of age. Women belonging to the tax-paying groups were not registered in the first, second and sixth census-takings. Age was recorded in every census. In the middle of the 19th century the movement in fa- vour of a general census of the population gained momentum in Russia. In 1814 the Director of the Central Statistical Committee P. P. Semyonov who later became honorary member of the International Statistical Institute, drew up the draft for the census. Before the revolution the only gen- eral census to be carried out was the census of February 9 (new style), 1897. It was prepared under the guidance of P. P. Se- myonov who sought to plan and organize the census so as to take into account the experience accumulated in other countries, as well as the specific conditions in Russia, Oral questioning of the population was introduced and the se- condary occupations were. also registered. The processing of the obtained data was not satisfactory and this affeefrd unfavourably the quality of the materials which were later published, Before the war of 1914 preparations for a second census were started, and draft-schedule was worked out. The program of this census was more detailed than that of 1897. Population censuses reflect the general as well as the spe- cafe conditions of the country in which they are taken, Under Socialism the law of planned balanced development of the national economy necessitates the introduction of economic planning. The law of Socialist society consists in the maxium satisfaction of the constantly rising requirements of its memb- ers, Therefore the establishment of the number and compo- sition of population in the U. S. S. R., and of its distribution is of particular interest in planning the national economy And culture, in controlling the implementation of plans, in determining the reserves of productive forces, in studying the requirements of various population groups, etc. Labour statistics, data on villagers obtainable from village Soviets, elector's lists, etc., are sufficient to satisfy the current re- quirements for statistical data concerning the number and composition of different groups of the population. Yet they cannot give any precibe information on the size of the coun- try total population and its distribution according to so- cial, economic and other characteristics, The needs of plan- ning require detailed information of the number and compo- sition of the future population according to sex, age, etc. A deep study of the processes of the reproduction of the pop- ulation requires a large amount of data on the number and composition of the population. These requirements can only be satisfied by means of a general census. In the U. S. S, R. there were three general censuses and two more censuses of urban population (in 1923 and in 1931). During the first years of the Soviet State the tasks facing the Goverment called for information on the condition of the nationd, economy considerably shattered by the war. The planning of the national economy and culture of the young Soviet Republic also required initial statistical data. On the initiative of V. I. Lenin a census of the population, an Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 51 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 agricultural COWS and a registration of industrial plants were conducted on August 28, 1920, The data of the census of December 17, 1926 Worked out on the basis of a comprehensive schedule, were used in de- vising a number of steps for the planning of national mil- amy and culture and in the deep study of processes Involved In the reproduction of the population. The census taken on January 17, 1939 showed the changes In the number, distribution and composition of the popula- tion which had occured as a result of the first two five- year plans, Its data served as a basis for the further planning of national economy and culture in the U. S. S. R. as well as in the individual Republics and regions. In 1957 prepa- ratory work was started for a general census to be taken in January 1959. The establishment of the total number of the population mid its distribution according to various characteristics is most accurately carried out by computing the actual (de facto) population. Under "actual population" we understand people who were present in a given inhabited locality at the critical mcment of the census. The establishment of the number and composition of the permanent resident popula- tion is important for administrative requirements and for the rendering of special services to various categories of people, By "permanent residents" we usually mean people habitually living in the given locality, even if they should be absent from it at the critical moment of the census. ,The enumeration of registered or "de jure" residents is of limited Importance in the U. S. S. R. Various categories of legal residents in the U, S. S. R. are listed and registered by dif- ferent institutions in the process of their current work, The general task of census-taking is to register all citi- zens without any omissions, Therefore the time When the census is taken is of considerable interest. Under the condi- tions prevailing in the U. S. S. R. the time most convenient for census-taking is that around January!, when no impor- tant migration is taking place. A census is not be taken on a holiday because on such days the population moves around more than on week days. The holidays of schoolchildren and studients must also be taken into account. In the U. S. S. R. the term *critical moment of a population census" indicates the exact how of the census: in 1920 it was taken at '9 a. m., 114 In 1920 and 1939 at midnight, In the schedule of the new census, the critical moment for the registration of the actual population has been fixed at zero hour January 15, 1959 (Thursday), In the various instances of census-taking in our country the concepts of the population to be registered did not fully coincide, The shedule of the 1897 census included an attempt to collect data not only on the actual population, but also on permanent and registered residents, which led to con- fusion of the two categories of residents. In the census of 1920 the lethal population was enumerated and the permanent or temporary nature of residence was marked, the definition being made at the discretion of the person quesdoned. Data on temporary absentees were entered into "apartment cards" and "domicile house list". In the census of 1926 the tempo- rary residents were marked in a "personal list", Permanently domiciled residents were enumerated only in towns and inha- bited localities of the township type where "rumily cards" were used. The actual population proved to exceed the per- manent one by two per cent. The main distinguishing fea- ture of the 1939 census was that both actual and permanent resident population fell within its scope. The detailed instru- ctions that had been worked out and the successful carrying out of the census determined the insignificance of the diver- gence in the registered types of filopulation (0.06 per cent). The draft for the 1959 census provides for the registration of both actual and permanent resident population. In the U. S. S. R. great attention is given to the organi- zation of census-taking on which the degree of its accuracy depends. State statistics are concentrated in the Central Statistical Office and its branches. In 1939 offices were created for the preparation, enumeration and processing of the census. One office was on a national-wide scale, while the others were Republican, territorial, regional and some offices were created in the big cities. The preparation for the census and the actual census-taking in regions and ci- ties of regional, territorial and Republican significance were entrusted to district and city inspectors for national econ- omic registration and their assistants. Apart from them heads of census departments, their assistants, control inspectors and tellers (enumeraters) were appointed. The number of the entire personnel including the reserves amounted npclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 53 C-Z0008000C1-001C1701-0-1-8dC1I-V10 ? 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Pe!PsselPeCI Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 were drawn up in advance; before the census they are che- cked once more and are then distributed among-the census personnel. Apart from this, the personnel was equipped with geo- graphical maps and city plans. This helped in setting up of the boundaries of the census sections and in achieving accu- racy during the census-taking. The territory was broken up into census districts, instru- ction and counting sections according to the availqble appro- ximate data on the number of the population and other infor- mation forming the object of the census. This data forms a basis for determing the necessary number of census-taking personnel and questionairs in each territorial division, In the process of census-taking great importance was at- tached to census documents. In 1939 basic documents appro- ved by the Government were as follows; 1) census schedule, 2) instruction on its filling in, 3) control form, 4) report on the census work. The latter two documents were of great importance as a check-up. There were also additional do- cuments such as 1) compound schedule on private house ownership in towns, 2) cadastral list for rural districts, 3-6) compound report-sheets from the census distrists, instruction and counting sections, notebooks for teller, controllers and instructors. The notebooks were filled in with preliminary information on the district, observations and notes as well as the results of audits, etc. On certain importance is the preparation of the population for the forthcoming census by the publication of booklets and newspaper articles, lectures and talks. Special local commissions facilitating census-taking are set up in various pots, etc. In the LL S. S. R. there is a practice of carrying out pre- liminary pilot or trial censuses in a number of towns and in the countryside, in order to check the effectiveness of the census schedule, the instruction and the other documents. After this the documents are approved, printed in the neces- sary number of copies in Russian and the other national languages of the U. S. S. R. and circulated throughout the country. Unification in the interpretation of questions pertaining to census documents can best be achieved by the oral que- stioning of the population. Explanations given by trained 50 ..?-????? tellers on various questions connected with the census are apt to improve the quality of the information. This oral questio- ning is of special importance in the registration of answers to complicated questions of the schedule, notably pertaining to occupation and the nature of the resident's stay at the gi- yen place. In Soviet census-taking the forms were filled in on the basis of replies given to oral questions; in 1926 excep- tion was made for the urban population. In 1939 omissions and double registration were avoided by means of census certificates, control forms and control inspections. Certificates were issued to people entered as temporary residents and to these for whom control forms had been drawn up, such as people travelling in trains at the time of the census, etc. At their permancnt domicile the residents who had received certificates were included into the list of temporary absentees. Control forms introduced in 1939 con- tained the same questions as the census schedule and were destined for people who at the critical moment of the census were absent from their permanent place of residence and had no certificate of having passed the census in the place where they were of the critical moment. Later the control forms were sent to the persons place of permanent residence. At the place where the control forms had been filled in these people were not included into the general census schedule showing the actual population. Apart from information on the address, the schedule of 1939 contained 16 questions. The first six of them were of a general demographic nature. Registration of relation to the head of household (que- stion 1) made it possible to establish the composition of a household at the moment of the census-taking. Questions 2-4 covered information necessary for the establishment of actual and permanent residence. Among the data regi- stered were the temporary or permanent nature of residence, the place and duration of temporary stay and temporary absence. The questions on sex (question 5) and age (in years, or months for infants under one year of age) were included in every census. Question No, 9 referred to the marital status. The family status was registered on the basis of the answers given by the persons questioned. Questions 7, 8 and 10 registered the nationality, mother tongue and citizenship ol the person questioned. The variega- 57 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? 4, ty . i Hp ., (r Idi 1r iiihrre.r.vortieren.7.1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ted composition of the population and the solution of both national problems In the U.S.S.R., make the registration of nationality and mother tongue necessary, on the basis of the self-determination of the persons In questioned. These data are not only Important for population studies but also for various administrative purposes, and for the development of culture in the national Republics, The data of the 1939 census mentioned 100 nationalities, Sixty of them formed national Republics, autonomous regions and national areas, The census material made it possible to judge the economic and cultural development of various nationalities in the U. S. S. R. Questions 11-13 dealt with the registration of literacy and education. In 1939 there was a general question of teracy: "a) able to read and write or only to read In some language? b) or completely illiterate?" Such a question was due to the fact that at the time there were many people incli- ned to call themselves "illiterate" although they could read and write. Question 12 refered to shoolchildren and students, and question 13 to people who had finished school or gradua- ted from higher educational institutions. The tremendous strides in the cultural development of our country will be reflected in the nature of these questions in the 1959 census. Particular attention will be given to the registration of the educational status of the economically active population with secondary and special education. Great importance is attached in the U. S. S. R. to questions pertaining to the occupation and social grouping of the pop- ulation, The questions of 1939 were: "14) Occupation (employ- ment) at the present moment or other means of livelihood", "15) Place of employment (name of enterprise, collective farm or institution)". "16) Social group? worker, employee, collective farmer, member of craftsmen's cooperative, indi- vidual farmer, craftsmen non-member of cooperative, pro- fessional, clergy or non-working citizen. If pensioners, people receiving scholarships, etc., were employed at the same time, only this employment was mentioned in column 14. Persons supported by others were marked as "dependant" and their census schedule contained the number of the census schedule of the person supporting them. Pensioners and people receiving scholarships were mentioned as members of the social group to which they had previously belonged. The composition of 58 the population of the U. S. S. R. according to occupation, sources of income, and the distribution of the population accoring to branches of labour, types of production and so- cial groups was established on the basis of the data contained In the replies to the last three questions of the 1939 census schedule. Certain social groups Included in the 1920 schedule (such as unemployed and pnprietors using employed labour) are not mentioned in the schedule of 1939. either does it include questions on physical and mental defects. The draft of the program of 1959 census-taking is closely connected with that of 1939. Special attention will be paid to the precise determining of actual and permanent popula- tion of the educational status and composition of the working people as well as the place and character of their employ- ment. The census-taking will lest 8 days. The processing of the results of the census will be fully completed before May 1960. 1.7Population censuse in the U. S. S. R. are an important link In the h tatistic system of the country. The data obtained forms the basis for the planning of national economy and cul- ture; they are also used in studying the reproduction of the population, 2. The census is taken orally by special tellers ? nie thod safeguarding more reliable data. 3. The completeness of the census and the division into actual and permanent population are saferguarded by the Introduction of additional documents. 4. The fixing of the critical moment of the census at zero on a week day around January 1 sI favours the success of census-taking. This is the time, when the migration of the population from one inhibited locality to another is lower than ever. 5. The preliminary drawing up of a list of bask inhabi- ted localities and adjacent separate buildings in rural di- stricts, as well as lists of townships and the boundaries of each town by the time of a new census, insures the success of the census and helps to obtain data of scientific and pra- ctical importance. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 59 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 6. In the U. S. S. Rs it is neectssary to put to the citizens simultaneous questions on their nationality and their mother tongue in accordance with their own determination, 7. In the forthcoming census of 1959 particular attention will be paid to questions pertaining to the education of econ- omically active citizens. 8. The data obtained from the census are used to establish the composition of the population of the U. S. S. R. according to occupation, sources of income, distribution of workers in various branches of labour, types of production, and social groups. n T P rt - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 EtfA. ? 101 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 I. Model of the balance-sheet table of national economy of the USSR (relative numbers) Appandlx Circulation of P Consumption of the national product - -- _ Funds and reserve: Funds and reser- Reproduction outlays Production the National income (V.+ MY by the end of Reproduction phases yes at the' begin- ning of the year I Past labour Live labour V1-1-V0 of national product P tu u a 1 V At consumer the year la Ts Eh eu 1?01.1.1111/11?010/M=....11.1k ISINIpleers IIIIIMMers--. 12.9.1Att_ -0 ii 4 u ii 0 o. .0 tIJ I rx , Subdivisions of the nalional economy cz -a (1., li ,.. 4. o = .......___ 4r6 1 0 04 !al 0.113 0 tu 411J ei .8.6 u d.h.,, tod _ti Au %ie.. lay ?;'!' -a i o u u ff, N 42;.. .t. cu ,ad 9 e ti 0 ......--, o az ga 1 :11 4) h. a 0 .o fo '61 t cu :I" 6 0 40 "6 0 0 VI .4 01 0, '-'4 g 3 0 a 0 4 CS 0 4z a .2-1. 0 L5* :a 0 NO a 0 Fund of accumulations and reserves') 4' ..t4 AZ 4) al ...., o I. .I4 B OP 4 E it t V: R1 'a. k- S ve., 3 E o 0 I-1 0 1 IS ti. wO 4.) I 4. 6., Otlj 0 E 0 I-. 7.5. 0 i--. t.i: 'V cd 01 t: ,.. u P E = E-- 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 19 20 21 22 11 12 A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1, Productive sphere 2000 200 65 535 230 170 120,8 556,7 322,5 1000 625,2 890 -324,8 600 400 75,2 - 52,1 22,6 74,7 2052,1 222,6 -146,2 -124,1 42,2 . - 12,3 -263 400 150 35 15 377,5 191,3 139,1 52,2 17,4 313 45,1 15,0 10,0 5,1 50,0 .--- - - - - - ----..... 35 9 4,1 4 39,1 411?11?????.1.0?MiSNMS 10 5,7 5,9 1 10,6 45,0 14,7 10,0 5,0 49,7 1085 ;159 229,1 379 1430,1 110 55,7 30,0 26 110,6 445,1 115 45 20,1 402,5 580 190 80 40 627,5 1. Industry 2. Agriculture ...... . . . . 3, Construction 4. Transport and comunication . . 5. Provision with capital goods and materials, and trade Including A. Means of production 1050 350 225 290 85 1400 100 56 25 10 15 100 48 12 3 2 45 352 138 32 13 332,5 110 81,3 80 59,1 30 22,2 10 7,4 180 133 50,8 15 45 10 120,8 316,7 225 - 15 556,7 212,5 60 35 15 - 580 300 80 40 677,5 -213,3 49,7 -61,8 235 142,5 222,5 243,5 (39,5 87 30,2 19,8 25,2 - - 25 14,1 13 5 5,6 12 30 19,7 r.!F', 885 554,1 613 45 65,6 112 255,2 147,3 222,7 430 197,5 262,5 A1 for the first subdivision . . , . . A2 for fhe second subdivision . . . , B. Means of consumption 860 540 600 40 60 100 30 15 20 205,0 127,5 202,5 140 103,5 40 29,5 50 37,0 100,8 20 - 354,2 202,5 - - 322,5 455 222,5 322,5 - 59,6 2,2 8 +324 1 202,5 20,0 - 81,8 5,2 - 22,2 3,0 324I 8 - 800 12 1 1 15 10 2 9,8 22 3 24,8 521 02 1015 90 13 109,8 0=2V 199,7 23 8 2641 236,5 26 - 131 for the personal consumption . . . B2 for the social consumption . . . . II. The sphere of service and consumption 510 90 1000 90 10 100_ 15 5 18,8 187,5 15 281,5 47 34,8 3 2,2 64,5 -64,5 - - - - - 29(3,5 26 - 296,5 26 - 40 - - 40 20 11 9 20 921 09 40 IIIMMOMB - 1. In public institutions 910 90 14,0 6,0 64,5 yo?????..????????????????10 - - - 13 27 224,8 - - - 13 27 284,8 - - - - 13 27 284,8 8 12 280 1 10 4 4 5 0,8 5 15 4,8 51 870 94 ' 54 45 10,8 a) Public administration and defence b) Science, culture, etc . , ? . 2. Population in household - 50 860 00 50 40 10 2,0 12,0 4,5 6,0 - 275,5 9,0 - O.) r r r , ..) - p - . ..... - . - - . - - - __... 147,1 135,9 1,8 0 4.?????urrasurgraram. - - - 600 monorrommommorea - - - 400 -155,0-- 124,8 5 400 -1774-7r 120,5 5 300 ______ (:)......4.1 5 8,5 (37,1 ......., .................. 0,8 32,4 }................???=1. 0,5 4,3 99,5 yft??.??????=??=...... 1415 75,5 4 3067,1 ......'''"" I 8,8 1 332,4 _____. 145 75,8 4 890 -- - - - 890 a) workers and employees . . . b) collective farmers and coope- ratives members C) Individual peasants 111. Total in the national economy -fr" 72 4 3000 1 8 1 300 0 7 3,6 0,2 83 5 153,8 116,9 4,8 816,5 - - - - 294,5 105,5 ..... - - 120,8 _ - - 556,7 ..., - 322,5 - - - 1000 1) Less the losses of-0,5 Source: ?Stalklike (Statistics), Moscow, 1956, p, 452 1228 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Interindustry transactions, 1947 in the USA ($ millions) A concise alternative of the table ?Interindustry flow-of goods and services by the industry of origin and destination" Appendix 2 Sales by Purchases by A Consumption for produCilon purposes Invoslinontfioods 0 8 0 2 ??????1?1.11MMIIIIVIMINOI 119 WPM Means of existence 4111; Elf -0 0 III 0 I:4 ? m "Ci ,A. S. ?-? .2"7:? vfjti8 1 beRg is tx . 74 3 0,0.0 .0 9 od ? 4 a 0., V I:1 4-? C4 3 4 11.-11-1AVIIMMIIIM196,11t Other industries 11: 0. 3 6 Final buyers t co v96 iS cu 4.0 0 Investment (49) 11.11.11111,11M.011.11.T11111.15,, 11????????????????.... 10 11 12 Grand total 1?11??????????1.101MONSIN 1. Productive sphere A. Investment goods 1. Metals, engineering and vehicles (18, 20-28) 2. Construction (45) Subtotal . ..... 13. Means of existence 3. Agriculture and fishery (I) . 4. Industry excluding metals engineer- ing, etc. (2-17, 19, 20, 30, 42, 43) Subtotal . C. Other Industries 5. Transport and communication (31-33, 35) 6. Trade and public catering (34, 44) Subtotal Total productive sphere 11. Nonproductive sphere 7. Services, financps and banking (30- 8. Public authorities (48) 9. Houlehold (50) . Total non-productive sphere 10. Changes in stocks (46) . 11. Foreign trade (Imports) (47) . Grand total 10121 2796 12917 180 6000 6180 000 rrr 38 593 19690 1608 1826 6431 9865 12169 1126 3708 46648 154 7 161 199 789 988 1481 255 1686 2835 4542 5464 154 10160 15709 0 0 28704 10275 2803 13078 379 6789 7168 1986 293 2279 22523 6150 7290 6585 20025 27878 1126 3708 75352 4 92 96 10856 19655 30511 16 865 881 31488 116 569 9785 10470 21 1008 , 1276 44263 15307 8582 23889 4264 78915 83179 2560 8954 11514 118582 13329 2081 48979 64389 1401 2334 7011 193717 15311 8674 23985 15120 98570 113690 2576 9819 12395 150070 13445 2650 58764 74859 1422 3342 8287 237080 802 1822 212416'38 7174 8242 1308 1073 2381 12747 1678 792 7292 9762 369 . 112 2282 25272 614 2506 3120 1360 4246 5606 477 1263 1740 10466 1762 45 39182 40989 2336 149 987 54927 1416 3828 5244 2428 11420 13848 1785 2336 4121 23213 3440 837 46474 50751 2705 261 8269 80199 27002 153o5 42307 17927 116779 134706 634.7 12448 18795 195808 23035 10777 111823 145635 32005 4729 15354 393531 601 1437 2038 3007 6288 9295 1116 6825 7941 19274 6274 5454 45053 56781 1075 703 286361 76733698(5 2190 470 2660 813 10414 11227 2441 5160 7601 21488 6311 3458 31308 41077 216 16650 11492 28142 19166 52806 71972 14959 30494 45453 145567 41668 30058 2116 73842 218 0 847 220474 19441 13399 32840 22986 69508 92494 18516 42479 6099(5 1846832r9) 54253 38970 78477 171700 1509 73 1944 361555 68 0 6 1 6 8 2660 2137 4797 0 0 0 00 0 22 4887 137 1 0 137 690 5293 5983 409 0 409 6529 108 1313 132,05 0 27460 0 0 9275 46648 28704 75352 44263 193717 237980 25272 54927 80199 393531 77396 51060 191625 320081 33514 '1802 17320 769248 1, Source: D; Evance and M. Hoffenberg, ?An Interindustry relations study for 1947", The review of economics and statistics", May 1952, 2, The columns and rows of Evans'and Hoffenberg's tables were grouped by me into broader subdivisions. In brackets the numbers of the rows and co1umns which, were summit up are shown. The row 9 Includes depreciation allowances which Evans and Hoffenberg do not take into account, Services rendered to business are shoWn not In Item 6 but are added to Item 7, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ., Purchases by N (Distribution) Sales by (Input) 1. Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. Mining and quarrying 3, Metals, engineering and vehicles 4. Textiles, clothing and keine Food, drink and tobacco 6, Other manufacturing . 7. Building and contracting 8. Gas, electricity, and water . . 9. Transport, communication, and trade 10. Public administration, educational and medicine services, household iI. Import 12. Sales by final buyers 13. Goods and services 14. Income of employees (wages) . 15. Gross profits, other trading income and rent 16. Taxes on expenditures (less subsi- dies) 17. Total input i ti U CPf. ti4 9.3 11 :. ,c1 --.E C.0 41 de2 .9 tg tu a a t b4 t) X a g 1 MMEIMMINIIIMIIMM?11 Interindustry transactions 1950 (United Kingdom) millions) 2 3 4 .,.. ? ? 28 6 ? 42 19 55 50 ? 48 10 5 41 ? 116 ? ..,, 1 118 , 30 395 89 30 21 22 15 4 9 60 13 105 30 400 180 53 11 218 468 12 12 OMMI.M.1?????????? 497 156 1190 823 256 359 1384 480 409 53 605 136 ?44 :3 11 11 alemmosselaw.almemisasa 1118 571 3190 1650 . .0 1 1 cd` ra 1 IS c: i ms i 11 H4. liki 0a mtg. 563 14 13 OMR immosemennwayagens 6 7 17 133 70 107 MOM NNW 27 160 MOOR 130 _ 209 8 12 ? 14 45 8 145 185 80 ? ? ? 396 393 39 ...... 17 ? 1316 979 526 246 611 610 268 362 112 678 81 7 2508 .2033 1275 8 ; 8 127 1 21 2 115 267 146 106 23 542 1' 9 56 248 27 200 121 88 219 26 1001 2133 1808 284 5226 10 111.1=11 NNW 00111 M?110 MON IMMO /IMO NINO OMNI 1227 316 ran 1543 1M1111111111ff II (1...10) 609 424 714 207 132 1192 231 241 1140 1798 67 6755 7452 4395 1054 19656 Final Buyers Gross domestic ca. Public Nal formation Persons authortn? es 12 13 14 451 285 810 2166 249 220 230 2989 472 747 35 8753 499 9252 Source: National income and expenditure 1946-52, London, Augutt, 1953, p.p. 22-23 8 4 205 2.1 16 180 155 28 390 1071 80 42 ?130 115 854 ?103 ?20 ?6 27 ?67 2057 1653 ?210 2740 14993 6 866 637 41 81 A ppendiX IIIMMOMMINIIIIIMPOOMMOOMMEMMIONftawONIMIWNImagommis *Di li I 0 / SQ Export V , 8.i A ti3 Ai a r. Cil 'We .11e....e.......a. 16 17 (12-16) 4 9 472 ?15 48 142 ?40 1070 2386 ?27 477 1283 40 129 2351 ?29 32:3 723 ? 2 1014 ?2 4 301 ?5 536 3991 1543 WM/ ONO 11 2068 OMNI 21 1674 .1??? ?210 2740 NMI 5:31 15524 Total output Irse..0110011.11,1, 18 19(11 +17 t 18) 37 1118 5 57 I 90 :1190 160 1650 25 2508 118 2033 30 127.) 95 II??? 140 iiii.....1????????????????=a6 700 ammo ??????? 1????? 700 542 5226 1513 2792 ????? 22448 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA -RD 080002- ifilW4MiAaToV 1:72.1?11V; Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Tableau conomique d'ensemble de 1'ann4e 1954 (en milliards de francs courants) Appendix 4 r?-? Emplols Ressourees 1, Entreprises 3, Administrations 2, Menages 3. Administrations o8 ci la ? % 71 M 44 I 10 2 4 R 7o I. A u ....,,,,_AMoi_iiikss ? .4 ? '5 wd. M 4.1 I 2: g tma, R . 11., 71. RI u 8 ...= t 4: a.. 7o1 ? o. A u Extcerleur TO1411 general .........1......._ Ci o = ms g MM 14 g :0 2 R 73 a ...es g RI .... "a 44 g ;= I R E A u g 3:3 . u R ?smainvirwmg,ecr . 2 I .0 IN3 u Extdrieur Total general SINEIMIMIOMM ONIMINONI /II 1 . 2 3 r 0 7 8 9 10 lli 12 13 14 15 16 17 - 18 19 , 20 sioni?mtlirannem....1 21111???????????? 5 a Production inteiricure brute . . 3 b Arnortissenient . 1 0 c Consommation Intdrieure . . 5 d Formation nette dc capital . 5 e Exportations 5 1 Utilisation de services . . . 5 g Formations de stocks 3 h Plus value de stocks 5 I Importations . . I ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? s . ? ? ? ? ? :. ? .m.? ? 1233 vs ? 461 ? ? 150 ? s . ? '. ? ? ? ? ? s ? 9962 ? ? ? '"' ? ? 242 ? ? 808 335 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? s ? 26 ? 274 ? ? ? ? s ? ? ? 1688 147 s ! ? 11'41 10770 1070 1688 147 1 450 ? 1.... 13394 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? s ? ? ? ? ? ? ...... ? MOM ? -- i, ? IMO . . ? s ? ? Ovar. ? ? ? ? s ? ,..? .?/.,, YIN . ..... ? ? s ? ? ? ..... MINI ? ? ? 10,,. ? ? _ _ "'" ? ? _. .... ? _ _ _ 1575 13751 _ UM _ ? ? 1575 _______. innalsORV?0111?1?1 ....... ?????????????== ??????????????????IMIMMmmommw????10,101?Ear Total 5 Biens et services ? ? 1844 ? 9962 377 808 300 1835 15326 13394 ? 357 ? milliMmillia ????????=0????? . saccsamscommeem . ......................... 1565 15326 6 ?1 DIvielendes et parts 6 ?2 Intere'st...... 6 ?3 Salaires of trallements 6 ?4 Cotisations sociales (3-5 Prestations sociales 13.6 Impots et taxes directs 5-7 Taxes sur le chiffre d'Affaires (3-8 Autres impots et taxes Indirects 7-1 Assistance 7-2 Dommages ,de guerre 7-7.3 Subventions d'explollation . . 7-4 Subventions lquilibre . . . 7-5 Subveptions d' quipement , . 7? 6 C9opdrat1on Internationale . . 7-7 Ddpenses et medics publiques emertoeres -. . . .? . . .? . . 7-8 Ddpenses et recettes privees ? exterlotres r-9 Transferts divers .. . . . . . ' ? 300 4270 1006 64 ? 1516 1114 ? -? ? - ? :. ? ? ._ .._ 32 ?? 470 ? ? ? ? 473 ? ? ? ? ..... ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ,..., ? ? ? 9 ? ? .__ ?.318 I WO 57 ? ? ? ? ? 21 ? .11 170 85 ..... ONMS ? INg??? ...... ? .? ? ? ? 136 162 ? ? ? 212 ? 896 ? 50 1717 ...... .... ? 11 IMMI 391 293 ? 227 ? . 487 ? 87 ? 9 ? 55465 ? 33 . ? ? ? ? ..... ? . ? ? ? ? ? , ? 74 13 ? ? ? ? ???a. s???? ? ? ? 283 235 55 ,544 5436 1f41 1781 1516 1182 M5 - 791 398 , 293 227 467 87 292 619 371 303 ? 318 ? ? ? ? 23 ? 227 ? ? ? ..... 109 58 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 120 ? 117 87 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?5061 ? ?1775 . ? ? ? ? ? ? ? , 422 129 ? ? ? ? 398 164 ? ? . ? ? ? ..235 37 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ...., ? ? ? .... ? 40 63' 275 i 1.141 . 791 1516 1159 ? 9: IIMPONE 350 . 287 65 . 120 ? ? ? ? ? _ ? ? ? ? ..." ? ? ? ? ? 24 ' 35 ? ? 6 ? ? ? ? ? ...". ? ? '5 534 136 ? 37 544 545 5336 1141 1781 791 1510 1182 398 293 227 467 87 ?292 610 371 303 __................ ONIIMmommomil?MO ???????i???????????1 ????=???????????? srarnedmormastibm 1100?????MINIMMI?Mmiag .,,,tio.,,,,,,,,ZotaL6._et,7,Transferts,.. .8802' .? 043 ? 87 882 ? 4054 ? ' 725 15893' ' .677 :382 ? ? -- .. , .... , Total. 401?11.1. 8:' Creances et dettes ? . Mo. ???ft1 ..... ' 5191 ? ? ? 519 ? ? 85 ? ? ? -. 246 '188 519 Amlinmanialonamo..misigs ........11110,106 an???????VI_ ./.???????mal .. ' ' i ??????10???????011.11m.mi ini.??????..........???? , ) '''' I Revenus bruts dl exploitation . .. 9-2 Revering bruts des entreprbeurs . individuels . . . . . . 6.. . . 9 ? 3 Revenus bruts non distrIbuti des ?societes . . . . ' ..... .. . ,. 0-74 Financement des investissemenis ?par les entrepreneurs igdividtiels . )-5 Epergne brute des mdnages . . )77-6 Defici, des administrations .. . pureWsOmasioadakromamaaimummesabim.????........10*????????1 5769 ? ? ? 3760 1439 ? ..... ? *pa 270 ? ? ? , 44110 ? ..... . ? 320 ? 1096 . AIMS ?' ? ? ? ? 1..A. ."... ? ? ?54 ? II?A. ? ? ? ? 6039 3769'. 143c -I 320' . 1091 ?5,1 ? ? 5769 ? ? ? ? _ 1439 320 _. ? 270 3769 ... . ? . 270 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 1096 ? -- ? ? ? ?m ? ? ? , ? ? ? ? 6039' 3769 1439: . 320' .1096. ?4..P f't 4 .???????nor.w......... ?????? ????????????????? Ammli?MifioleLl.csamaimaim ? t Total 9: 1 .............m...... ........................ 41??????01.111gadorm ????????0000.aramooln. ???????1101?10?060.106 ....,...........*?106 ? , Revenus et epargnes .? 5769 5208 ? 270 1416 ? ? ?54 ? --i ? 5769 , 1759' ? 4039 1096 ?54 , ? ????a? Total ..........?.. IIIImaiyinamitilarierasser. . general 14071 6151 1844 357 1 2260 1096 ? 5762 246 2560 ? 14071 6151 1844 357 12260 10965762 : 246 ????????????????????????????? , 2560 ? ource: tatistiques et etudes financieree M 100, avril 1957, Paris, p.p. 424-425. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 UTILISATION DE LA NOTION DE POPULATION STABLE 74 POUR MESURER LA MORTALITE ET LA FgCONDITE DES POPULATIONS DES PAYS SOUS-DEVELOPPES par JEAN BOURGEOIS-PICHAT1 Service de la Population du Bureau des Affaires Sociales, Nations Unies Dans les pays sous-developpes, los statistiques du mouvement de In population sont trbs Mos:Amuses, Souvent elles no donnent memo pas un ordre do grandeur des niveaux do fecondite ot de mortalit6. Les reconsements sont on general d'une qualit6 bion superieure. Or in population nisi? A l'oeoasion d'un reconsement est le resultat do l'evolution passe() do In fecondite et do In mortalite. On pout done esperer titer des recensements des renseignements stir cette fecondite et ?ate mortalite. (Yost 19, tine osperance qui a deja, suseit6 de nombroux travaux. Les methodes quo nous nous proposons d'exposer jot ont trouve lour principe dans Vehicle des effets des variations de in mortalite et de In fecondite sur in composition par Age des popula- tions et &est la necessite de mesurer In fecondite et in mortalite des pays sous- (1.6vJloppes pour calculer dos perspectives do population pour ces pays qui a conduit le Service de in Population des Nations Unies 9, les imaginer. MartaUM et structure par age L'ensemble des taux de mortalite par Age constitue un bon indice pour mesurer un niveau de mortalite. Quand in mortalit6 vale dans une population, on rencontre tine succession d'ensembles de taux de mortalite par age qui sont toujours A peu pt.& les !dimes. Par exemple, on observe qu'a tine valour donne? du taux de mortalit6 de 6 A 9 ans, correspond tine valour du taux de mortalite de 40 11, 44 ens qui est plus elevee et qui est toujours A peu pres in m9me. Autrement dit, on pout 6tablir tine serie d'ensembles de taux de mortalite par 9,ge qui materialisent les etats successifs par ofi passe la mortalite au fur et a, mesure quo l'etat sanitaire se modifie. L'etude demographique No. 22 publiee par l'Organisation des Nations Unies sun les tables de morbalite mutThiE, aeu pour objet d'etablir (.4.44,41 gArie d'ensembles de taux de mortalite par 40. L'auttur de co document est membre du Secr6tariat de l'Organisation des Nations 'Union. Il expose ses vues persomielles qui no sent pas acessairement cellos du Secr6tariat. I Se1t4mao de variation de la tnortatitd aelon l'dge et le gexe, Document des Nations Ilnies, No. ST/S0A/Sor, A/22, No. de vente 1955.X111.9. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043ROO1InnoRnnn9 2 ofiab. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Les tables de mortalitil modeles pormettent d'audier l'effet do la baisse de la mortalit6 sur la composition par Ago des populations. Consid6rons a l'instant S uno population ot le taux brut do reproduction est tigal A B et Posp6ranoe do vie A la naissance B1. Supposons qu'A partly do l'instant t la mortalit6 d6oroisse de telle sorto quo les taux de mortalit6 par Age parcourent la s6rie des tables de mortalit6 modeles, l'esporance de vie It la naissance passant on x ann6es de B1 A Ba, Supposons on outre qu'apres l'instant t x Ia mortalit6 so stabilise au nivoau Ba. Supposons onfin quo la f6condit6 demoure oonstanto pendant touto ?ate &elution, le taux brut do reproduction rostant au niveau B. Calmions dans ces hypotheses une perspective de population. Soit P oat? perspective. Dans la perspective P la structure par Age vane et cos variations no d6pendent pas soulement des variations de la mortalit6 et do la f6condit6 A partir do l'instant t, mais aussi dos variations subies par cos factours domographiques avant l'instant 1. ? Autremont dit, pour isoler, dans los variations de la structure par Ago observ6es dans la perspective P, co qui est clit A la baisso do la mortalit6 apres l'instant t, ii faut ovaluer cc qui est dA, dans cos voriations, aux modifications de la f6condit6 ot de la mortalit6 avant l'instant 1. Dans P,..) J,At, on calcule une monde perspective P' ou, A partir do l'instant 1, la mortalith et la f6condite restent constantes respoctivoment an niveau B1 et B. La ooni,:?nrakon dos 6volutions de la composition par Age dans los deux perspectives P o. Dermot do =surer l'effet de la baisse de la mortalite consid6r6e. Si l'on oomme population de &part A l'instant S une population stable correspondant A la f000ndit6 B et A la mortalit6 B1, la perspective P' se reduit cette population stable, Ii suffit alors de comparer nivolution de la structure par Age de la perspective P :1, la structure par Age de la population stable de depart. Notons enfin quo dan& la perspective P, on se trouve apres l'instant t x dans une population ott in, mortalit6 mate constante au niveau B2 et oit la f6condit6 reste constante an niveau R. Par cons6quent, dans cette perspective la population tendra vers une population stable correspondant A la fecondite B et 4 la mortalite E2. Le tableau 1 donne les r6sultats d'un tel calcul effeetu6 dans les conditions quo void. B 122 3,00; ,E1 ma 40 ans; sm 40 ans; B2 ms 60,ans. En d'autres termes, on imagine, dans une population de fecondite relativement elev6e et constante, une baisse de la mortalit6 pertnettant de faire passer l'esperance de vie A la naissance de 40 A 60 ans et cola an cours d'une p6riode de 40 annees de calendrier. Le tableau 1 met en evidence les faits suivants (a) L'effet de la baisse de la mortalit6 consid6r6 our la composition par Age n'est pas tres important. Cette baisse produit un rajeunissement par la base de la pyramide des Ages et pen de changement an sommet. (b) La composition par Age vale peu an cants du temps et an moment au se stabilise la mortalit6, elle est tires voisine de la composition par Age de in population stable d'arrivee. (c) 1.1 result? de (b) quo les taux de natalit6 et de mortalite ainsi quo le taux d'ac- croissement naturel observes au moment cal la mortalite se stabilise sont pratiquement 3 TABLRAIT 1. Variations des &verses earaeteristiques dimographiques dans le passage (Pune popultstion stable (a) a une attire population, stable, (b) dans le me ell la mertallie ddereit et 04 la feeendlie rests constante. Taux brut Epoque? do mortalit6 (pour mine) Taux brut de natalitti (pour mille) Taux d'aoorols. gement nature! (pour mine) Composition, pour 100, par grand? groupos Wages (on minks) 0-14 10-40 00 et plus Population stable de d6parta tnoment oh la mortit. lit6 oesse de diminuer? 23,3 9,8 40,0 43,0 22,7 33,8 43,1 44,9 52,5 50,2 4,4 4,0 Population stable d'ar. riv6ob 9,0 43,8 33,2 40,0 49,0 4,4 a Population stable correspondant un taux brut do roproduction do 3,0 ot uno osporanoo do vie It la naissanco do 40 ans. b Population stable oorrospondant un !aux brut de roproduotion do 3,0 ot uno esperanco do vie d la naissanoo do 00 ans. ? On a suppose quo to passage de la lr? b. la 20 mortalit6 so faisait on 40 ans. 6gaux aux taux correspondants observes dans la population stable von laquelle tend la perspective. Le calcul pr6cedent n'emt 6videmment qu'un cas particulier. Pour g6ndraliser les r6sultats, ii faudrait multiplier des calculs analogues et imaginer toutes les baisses possibles de la mortalit6. Le travail est on cours au Service de la Population des Nations Unica. On s'est content6 ici do comparer de nombreuses populations stables, &est-A-dire de comparer les points do depart et les points d'arriv6e de perspectives analogues A, cellos qui font l'objet du tableau 1. Le tableau 2 donne les 616ments permettant de faire cette comparaison en utilisant les populations stables calculdes en associant deux A, deux, d'une part, six niveaux de f6condite correspondant respec- tivoment aux six valeurs suivantes du taux brut de reproduction 1,0- 1,5- 2,0- 2,5- 3,0- 4,0, et d'autre part, six niveaux de mortalite correspondant respectivement aux six valeurs suivantes de l'esp6rance de vie A, la naissance 20 ans- 30 ans- 40 ans- 50 ans- 60 ans- et 70 ans. Ce tableau montre quo les conclusions preadentes ont vraisemblablement une portde gen6ralel. On pout presenter les resultats de ht maniere quo void. Consid6rona une population oit 1 fecondite reste constante et oit In inortalit6 baisse. Notons en passant quo 1 En toute rigueur, le tableau 2 no permet pas de connaltre ee qui se passe entre le point d'arrivee et le point de d6part. Toutefois comma les compositions par Ago d'arriv6e et de d6part sont voisines, il est peu probable quo in composition par age vane beaucoup darts l'intervalle; sauf peut.6tre dans le cas d'une baisse tr6s rapide de la mortalit6. Co point sera 6elairci bient6t grace aux travaux en cours du Service de la Population de l'Organisation des Nations Unica. *-- 578393 MI Jean Bnurgeais-Pichat Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 4 TABLEAU 2. atractdriatiques de populationo stables modeles orrespondant 4 divers 'avow de Irkonditd et de tmaraitd, Taux brut do ro. produo? tion Hop6ranoo do vio 4 la 11410. NR1100 (on annOom) R6partit1on do la population par groupom cl'Agem (on ann6om) Moinm 00 ou Tons 15-50 do 15 plum Ages Taux brut pour 1000 Aooroim. Nan, Motto, lit6 11t6 momont naturol Repartition dos (Wm do 5 anis et plum par groupom d'Agom (on ann6om) 5-14 15-59 00 ot plum 4 20 45,2 52,4 2,4 100,0 03,8 53,0 10,8 19,0 08,3 12,1 3 38,5 57,0 3,9 100,0 40,5 50,2 0,3 14,7 08,4 10,9 2,5 34,1 00,7 5,2 100,0 42,9 49,1 - 0,3 11,8 (10,5 21,7 2 28,9 04,0 7,1 100,0 34,2 48,0 - 14,4 9,1 05,4 25,5 1,5 22,0 00,1) 10,5 100,0 24,8 49,7 -24,0 0,2 01,3 32,5 1 14,8 08,3 10,9 100,0 14,0 54,4 - 39,8 3,3 53,0 43,1 4 30 48,2 49,2 2,0 100,0 50,8 35,3 24,5 19,5 04,7 15,8 3 41,3 54,5 4,1 100,0 47,7 33,7 14,0 14,5 03,4 22,1 2,5 30,9 57,0 5,5 100,0 40,0 33,2 7,4 11,0 01,0 20,8 2 31,4 00,9 7,7 100,0 32,7 33,0 - 0,0 8,7 58,4 32,0 1,5 24,7 03,8 11,5 100,0 23,8 35,0 -11,2 5,7 53,0 41,3 1 10,3 05,0 18,7 100,0 14,0 39,9 - 25,0 2,0 44,0 53,1 4 40 50,0 47,3 .2,7 100,0 57,3 24,1 33,2 18,8 00,8 20,4 3 43,1 52,5 4,4 100,0 40,0 23,3 22,7 13,0 58,1 28,3 2,5 38,5 55,0 5,9 100,0 30,3 23,2 10,1 10,8 55,4 33,8 2 82,0 58,8 8,3 100,0 31,7 23,7 8,0 7,0 51,1 41,0 1,5 25,0 01,0 12,5 100,0 23,1 25,0 - 2,5 5,0 44,0 50,4 1 17,0 02,0 20,4 100,0 13,0 30,9 - 17,3 2,4 35,0 02,0 4 51,5 45,8 2,7 100,0 55,7 10,2 39,5 17,5 50,5 20,0 3 44,0 50,9 4,5 100,0 44,9 15,8 29,1 12,3 52,3 35,4 2,5 40,0 53,9 0,1 100,0 38,4 10,0 22,4 9,5 48,8 41,7 2 34,2 57,2 8,0 100,0 31,1 10,8 14,3 0,7 43,7 40,0 1,5 27,0 60,0 13,0 100,0 22,7 18,8 3,0 4,1 30,7 50,2 1 17,8 60,7 21,5 100,0 13,4 24,3 -10,0 1,0 27,3 70,8 4 00,4 52,9 44,4 2,7 100,0 54,1 9,4 44,7 14,8 51,1 34,1 3 40,0 49,0 4,4 100,0 43,8 9,0 34,2 9,0 45,5 44,0 2,5 41,4 52,0 0,0 100,0 37,7 10,1 27,0 7,4 41,3 51,3 2 35,0 55,8 8,0 100,0 30,0 11,1 19,5 5,0 35,9 59,1 1,5 28,2 58,7 . 13,1 100,0 22,5 13,5 0,0 2,0 29,0 68,1 1 18,7 59,4 21,9 100,0 13,3 19,0 - 5,7 1,3 20,0 78,1 4 70,2 54,1 43,3 2,0 100,0 52,7 4,1 48,0 0,2 42,8 48,0 3 47,3 4.144 4,3 100,0 st.o?n 4,8 88,1 5,7 36,1 58,2 2,5 42,7 51,4 5,9 100,0 37,0 5,5 31,5 4,0 31,9 04,1 2 30,8 54,7 8,5 100,0 30,1 0,8 23,3 7,6 20,8 70,6 1,5 20,3 57,7 13,0 100,0 22,3 9,4 12,0 1,4 21,1 77,5 1 19,5 58,0 21,9 100,0 13,3 15,1 - 1,8 0,6 14,5 84,9 5 &est le efts de la majorit6 des populations dos pays sous?d6voloppds A l'houro m4110110. Supposons qui4 un instant dorm& la mortal1t6 mese do baisser et roste constanto au nivoau atteint A cot Instant. Au bout d'un -certain temps, la population atteint un dtat stable. Los indications pr6c6dentes montront qu'au moment ah Von imagine la stabilisation do la mortalit6, la population est d6j4 tree voisine de cot (Stat stable. Il en Moult() qu'une population ott la f6condit6 rest? constant? ot ott la mortalit6 baisso pout Um assimilde, A ohaque instant, 4 tine population stable. En d'autres tormes, dans Cos populations, Ii y a 4 claque instant entre la composition par Age, le taux de natalltd, lo taux do mortalitd et le taux d'aeoroissoment, approximativoment los moms rela- tions quo dans uno population stable. La population a structure par age invariable On pout encore justifier l'assimilation dos populations dos pays sous.d6voloppos des populations stables de la manibre suivante. Dans cos pays on oonstato on offot quo la composition par Ago do la population resto pratiquement invariable au cours du temps'. Considdrons done um population de composition par Age constant?. Soit a l'ago des individus et c(a) la composition par Age. Romarquons d'abord quo dans une toile population, le taux brut do natalit6 est constant. Il ost on effot 6gal A e (0). D6signons A l'instant t par Pe l'offectif de la population, rt to taux annuol d'aeorois- soment naturel et it(a) la fonotion de survie. L'effectif dos porsonnes d'age a est 6gal A Pic (a), Un an aprbs, ones ont rage a -I- 1 ot lour effootif est lt(a+ 1) Pic (a) to (a) I La f000ndit6 des populations des pays sous-d6voloppos no pout Otro consid6r6o comme con. stanto qu'on promiero approximation. Dans la r6a1it6, oat? f6condit6 vario d'une ann6e l'autre. Mobs, jusqu'iol, cos fluotuo,tions n'ont jamais 6t6 tres grandes. Hiles mit 6t6 on par4oulier tres inf6rieuros aux variations do is. mortalit6. Nous n'on tiondrons pas compte 6tont donn6 quo nous eherohons d6torminor un niveau mom do f6condit6, Cato constatation pout parattre contro,dictoiro avec co quo nous avons tilt plus haut sur l'effot dos mouvements do in mortalit6 sur in structure par Ago dos populations. La rnorta1it6 a baiss6 ot continue a baisser dans los pays sous?d6volopp6s. On devrait done observer un rajounisi somont par la base do is. pyramid? des Ages. En fait, le tableau 2 montre quo l'offot de rajounisso. mont ost tros foible, Ii faut quo la mortalit6 baisso beaucoup pour quo cot offet soit sensible, Dans los populations stablos eorrospondant au taux brut do reproduction de 3,0, le pourcontage des personnos de 0 a 14 ails vat+, do in maniere suivanto avec le niveau de mortalit6 Eap&ttittiti do vio it h4. naissance on ann6os . . 30, 40 50 00,4 70,2 Pouroontttgo dos porsonnes do 0 it 14 /ma 41,3 43,1 44,6 46,0 47,3. Dans Is. pratiquo cola roviont it dire quo les taux do f6condito par Ago sont constants. Si l'un variait, II faudrait en offet quo los autros variant on sons inverse ot clans dos proportions belles quo los cons6quenees de CO8 variations sur lo taux brut de natalit6 soiont finalement nuls, Dos variations do eetto nature no so roncontront jamais pratiquornerit. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 0 qui ost aussi dgal h c (a + 1) Pt (1 + rt) o (a + 1), dono it(a I 1) (a + 1) On a On tiro facilomont do cede relation l'egalit6 suivanto (a) a c (a) TIT) Ea (1 + rt "T6c Si Von introduit la notation continuo on pout aussi ecriro lt(a). o(0) it (0) Co qui montro quo la composition par ago consider& ost idontiquo b, la composition par Age d'une population stable oalouleo avoo la mortalit6 ot lo taux annuol d'ac- croissoment naturol obsorv6 h l'instant E. En d'autros tormes, dans uno population do composition par Age invariable, ii y a h chaquo instant los mOnies relations quo dans uno population stablo ontro la structure par ago, la fecondit6, la mortalit6 ot le taux d'acoroissoment naturel. C'est code possibilite d'assimilor los populations dos pays sous-develop* h dos populations stables qui est h la base dos methodos quo nous allons maintonant exposer. Los possibilites d'application sont trim varies. Elles depondont dos donnees dont on dispose et l'on pourrait prosquo dire quo ohaquo ?as particulior a sa propre method? d'analyse. On so limit? ioi au cas o? l'on dispose au moms do doux recensements par trop eloignes Fun de l'autrel et l'on so propose d'obtenir uno estimation des niveaux moyons de riatalite et do mortalit6 pour la period? entre los deux reconsoments. Cos estimations se rapportent par consequent h des ?ques souvent assoz 6loignees du temps present, Pour connaltre la situation demographique aetuello, ii font done partir des estimations passees, calnuler de nouvelles estimations pour les annees recentes, C'est iA uno operation qui a ses propres methodes, Elle sera ici laisseo de cote. L'utilisation des populations stables modeles Cotte premibre inethode2 repose sur les hypotheses suivantes (a) La fecondite dans les populations considerees est peu variable, et pout litre consider& comme pratiquoment constant?, 1 C'est un efts qui se rencontre tr6s souvent dans in, pratique, 2 D'aprbs les chiffres du tableau 2, il est possible de montrer gush, cheque population stable, c'est.h.dire A cheque couple de valour do l'esp6rance de vie i la naissance et du taux brut de reproduction correspond une structure par Ago et une seule. Par cons6quent, inversement, cheque structure par Age correspond un aeul couple do velours de l'esporance de vie la naissance et du taux brut de reproduction. En assitnilant la structure par Age d'une population r6elle avec la structure par Ago d'une population stable du tableau 2 (ou d'une population stable interpol6e entre deux populations stables du tableau 2), on pout done on d6duire les niveaux de f6condit6 40 'roux brut di mortollt4 20 (pour 1000) ooe# 35 oei ,/?? i#0 Volours de p ?# oo oo# #e ?# # 30 "1 Valour' de r ? oe? 000?# ioeo eeeee # ### 25 - o ? i ??? o# # Ao # 20 4 , o/ e? ei# 3, # Valour' do r 15 10 020 25 30 35 40 45 50 GitAVIIIQUE 1. Lignos p constant et lignes b r constant dans l'onsemble dos populations stables du tableau 2. Taux brut da natallta (pour 1000) (b) La mortalit6 vane on suivant le schema des tables de mortalite modeles, (c) Los reconsements de population donnent tine evaluation assez precise de la structure par Ago. Toutefois, pour tenir oompte du fait que les reconsements sousesti- ment generalement le nombro dos enfants on bas-ago, on consider? seuloment la composition par Age de la population do 5 ans et plus et l'on fait choix commo indice do la composition par Ago du rapport p des personnes do 5 h 14 ans au nombro total dos personnes do 5 ans et plus'. Dans les pays oit les migrations internationales sent et de tnortalit6 de la population r6olle. Male ce n'est I qu'une theorique. En effet, ?mune nous l'avona d6j4 tilt, la structure par Age out tr68 putt sensible aux mouvements de la mortalit6 si bion qu'une impr6cision relativement faible do In structure par Ago de In population thelle, entrain() uno grand? improcision dans la d6termination du niveau de la mortalit6. Autrement tilt, in. connaissanco de in, settle structure par Age, th6oriquement suffisante pour obtenir les niveaux do mortalit6 et de f6condit6 se r6v6le pratiquement itnpuissante. Si lion vont obtonir des 6valuations convenables ii faut avoir d'autres informations on plus dos renseignements quo l'on possbdo d6jh sur la structure par Age. On s'est place) lei dans le cue oi l'on connatt la structure par Age et le taux d'accroissement nature'. I On a 6videmment la choix entre tine infinit6 d'indices de composition par Age. On a ehoisi le group? 5-14 am parce qu'il comprend dos personnes qui sont g6n6ralement bion rocenges et qui no sant pas beaucoup affect6es par les mouvements migratoires. 10* - 678393 151 Jean Bouroeo18?Piehat Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 importantes, uno oorrootion est apportee i la structure par Age pour tonir compto do owl migrations, (d) Los reconsements successifs oorriges au bosoin pour tenir compte des migrations donnont une bonne mosure du taux d'aeoroissoment nature], (Cool suppose done qu'on dispose d'au moms deux roconsements,) On a oonstruit un cliagrammo (graphique 1) illustrant comment varient dans los populations stables preo6dominont &fillies los valours de p ot do r on fonetion dos taux bruts do mortalite et de natalit6, Le prooddo est aiors tres simple. Supposons par exemple qu'on dispose pour un pays donn6 do dour r000nsomonts su000ssifs rospootivomont oreoutos on 1940 ot 1950. On oaloulo la valour do p an r000nsomont do 1940 et an r000nsemont do 1950 at on proud la valour moyonno p?,. La oomparaison dos deux r000nsomonts, oompto tonu si bosoin est dos mouvomonts migratoiros, nous donne lo taux d'aeoroissomont nature! r. On lit sur le diagramme au point d'intor? section dos lignos p?, ot r los valours dos taux do mortalit6 ot do natalite. On admot quo cos taux sont los taux moyons do la period? entre leg doux reoensoments. Les applications pratiques Dans la zone ofi so situent los applications pratiquesi lo diagramme No. 1 se present? sous la forme do deux reseauk de droites paralleles. Il est done possible de lo trans. former on un graphique du typo nomogramme A points aligns (graphique 2). Sur l'eohollo de droite on mere le taux d'aooroissoment naturel, 6va1u6 comme on l'a dit A l'aide do la oomparaison des deux reconsements. Sur 1'6oholle du milieu on roper? 'Indio? de la composition par Ago p (indiee moyen des deux reconsements). On joint par uric droite les deux points obtenus. Cate droite coupe 1'6?11011e de gauche en un point ofi l'on lit le taux brut de natalit6, Le taux brut do mortalit6 s'obtiont evidem- ment on soustrayant le taux d'aeoroissement naturel du taux brut de natalit6 ainsi obtenu. Si l'on prefer?, on pout aussi utiliser in formule numerique suivante, equivalent? an nomogramme 1, ofi p est exprim6 on % et r en %o 3,76 p 44,88 ? r 1,076 Pronons un exemple. Celui do In Colombie pour laquelle on dispose de reeensements en 1938 et 1951. Les statistiques stir la nationalit6 des habitants montrent quo les migrations internationales sont n6g1igeables au cours do cette p6riodo. En 1938 on a p 0,314. En Ira51 on a 2) ? 0,313. La valour moyenne p,, 0,3135. Le taux d'aceroissement calcul 6 en comparant les deux recensements est prig comma une estimation du taux d'accroissement nature!. On trouve I Etappelons quo is. methode no s'applique quo dans des populations h f6condit6 constant?, c'est.h.diro pratiquoment les pays h forte fecondit6. ? IN 55 %0 'Tux brut de malice A 5-14 ans orri-r-FM -.: )3 32 7.: 31 30 -1-29 28 --- 27 GRAPHTQIJE 2. %. Taint d'accrolsav mini natural ?40 miles ?11.? NEW 5.5 20 ?.10 9 r 22,3%0. La droite joignant les deux points eorrespondant respeotivement A, ces valeurs de r at de p coupe l'echelle des taux de natalit6 en un point correspondant d un taux brut de natalit6. b 47,3%?. Le taux brut de mortalit6 est done m 11,3%0 ? 22,3%o 25,0%0. Ii lui correspondl une esp6ratice de vie A, Is. naissance de 38,5 ans. Les taux bruts morns de natalit6 et de mortalit6 enregistres en Colombie de 1939 11 1950 sont indiqu6s dans le tableau 3. La comparaison de ces valeurs avec les estimations 1 L'esp6mnoe de vie h, is. naissanco correspondant au taux de mortalito se ?alai& par inter. polation des ?Wires du tableau 2, 0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 10 TABLEAU 3. Mouvement natural de la population enregiatrde en Colombia entre leo deux derniers reoensementa. Population r000ns6o lo 111V111-1938 8 701 810 Population r000nsdo lo 9-V-1951 . 11,548.177 Moos ammo's moyons onrogistrds do 1030 4 1950 154 901 Naissanoos annuollos moyonnos onrogistroos do 1930 h 1050 . . 331490 Tux brut. anntiol moyon do morta1it6 (pour 1000) 15,1 Taux brut annuol moyon do natalitti (pour 1000) 33,1 proadentes fait apparattre pour la p6riodo consid6r6o un sous-onrogistrqmont des naissanoes do 30,0 % ot un sous-enrogistroment des &nes de 38,0 %. Lo sous-enrogistroment des naissances ot dos d6ces qu'on vient do mottro on 6vidonoo on Colombio est loin d'otro partioulior A cc pays. On trouvo un r6sultat analoguo dans la plupart dos pays sous-d6volopp6s. Dovant tan sous-enrogistroment dune toile amplour, on est on doit do s'ivitorroger sur hi validit6 do la m6thodo et il apparatt indispensable do ellen:311er r d'autres moyens uno confirmation des resultats. Mithode basso 8,7 l'invariance de la structure par age La validit6 do l'hypothese st .vant laquelle hi mortalit6 mit dans les populations consid6r6es conform6ment an sch6ma des tables do mortalit6 modeles pout prAtor discussion. On a vu tnut-h-l'houre qu'on pouvait assimiler A dos populations stables TABLEAU 4. Compootvton de la population de la Colonthie par grands groupes d'dges aux tro:s derniers recensements, Oroupos d'agos (on annees) Date des reconsemonts 14-X-1918 5-VII-1038 9-V-1951 Moins de 1 4,0 3,3 3,7 1- 4 11,3 12,0 13,1 5-9 13,1 14,3 14,0 10-14 11,0 12,3 12,0 15-19 9,7 10,3 10,2 20-29 17,0 17,5 17,0 30-39 13,2 12,2 11,7 40-49 8,7 8,1 7,0 50-59 5,2 5,0 5,2 60-09 3,3 3,1 3,2 70-79 1,4 1,3 1,4 80-89 0,7 0,5 0,5 90 os plus 0,2 0,2 0,1 Thus ages 100,0 100,0 100,0 11 TABLIDAII Calcul de la table do ourvio de 14 Colombia au?dooaua do 7,4 ans pour la 2)61041938-1951, Compomition Far Ago Moyonno 1938-1951 o (a) Ago moyon - (on onn6o) 14,15 7,4 12,15 12,4 10,25 17,6 17,211 25,0 11,05 33,0 8,00 45,0 5,10 65,0 3,15 05,0 1,35 74,0 0,60 88,0 0,15 96,0 Prodult FC4 (r 22,3 '4) 0,1073 0,2788 0,3902 0,5575 0,7805 1,0035 1,2206 1,4494 1,0726 1,8956 2,1185 (ra) (Logo, o) ra o"u(a) 1(a) (fonotion do survio) 0,072030 1,182 10,725 1000 0,121000 1,321 10,060 900 0,109483 1,477 15,142 905 0,242110 , 1,740 90,124 901 0,338007 2,183 20,082 779 0,438815 2,728 21,822 052 0,532002 3,409 17,387 519 (1;020510 4,201 13,422 401 0,720368 6,320 7,189 216 0,823205 0,060 3,328 100 0,020053 8,319 1,248 37 les populations do structure par Ago invariable sans faire appol, pour justifier ootto assimilation, aux tables do mortalito modeles. Or la stabilit6 do structure par Ago d'une population est un fait d'observation indisoutable. Lo tableau 4 montre qu'on Colombie la structure par Ago a tres pou vari6 an ?ours dos trois derniors reconsements. En multipliant cette structure par Age, pratiquement invariable, par la fonotion exp (ria) oi rt est le taux d'accroissoment naturel A l'instant E, on obtient, A un facteur constant pres, la fonetion de survie 11(a) A l'instant 1. Pour tenir compte du fait quo les enfants sont on g6n6ral mal menses, on a limit6 le calcul aux personnes do 5 ans et plus et la table do survie obtenue commence A, 7,5 ans. On a pris pour r le taux annuel d'aeoroissement donn6 par la comparaison des deux dorniers recensements (22,)%). Le tableau 5 donne le d6tail du calcul. Dans la table de survie ainsi calcul6e, l'esperanee de vie A 7 ans est do 47,9 amides. Dans les tables de mortalit6 modeles, la correspondance entre l'esp6rance de vie la naissance et l'eAperance de vie A, 7 est la suivante (Tableau 6). TABLEAU 0. Correspondance entre l'esperance de vie la naisaance a l'esperanee de vie cl 7,5 an dans les tables de mortalito modUes. Esp6ranee vie 4 Esp6ranee do vie la nnitzanco 4 7- ans (en ann6os) (on annees) 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 33,2 40,0 47,8 54,4 00,4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 f Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 12 On oat aimi oondult A admottro pour la Colombia do 1938 A 1951, uno mortalit6 tous Ages donnant uno omptiranoo do vie A la naismanoo do 40 ans, Ix tableau 2 mind do oaloulor los taux 'louts do natalito ot do mortal1t6 correspondants. On trouvo b iR445,0%0, m La nouvelle 6va1uat1on ost rolativement ind6pondoanto dos tablos do mortalit6 modblos, Collos.ol no sont on offot utiliMos quo pour passor do la morta1it6 au.dossus do 74 ans A la mortalit6 tous Ages, L'acoord entre los deux estimations montro done quo dans lo oas do la Colombia l'utilisation dos tables do mortalito modblos oat parfaitomont valablo, Par oontro, dans los doux in6thodos, l'hypothbso sur l'oxaotitudo dos roconsomonts oat la m6mo ot l'acoord dos rtimultats ?o pormot pas do firer uno conclusion sur la validit6 do ootto hypothose, La structure par age des ads La structure par Age dos ads cat uno source do ronseignomonts ind6pendanto dos r000nsements, Il arrive qu'on la connaisse 11101110 quand l'enrogistroment dos d6olis oat incomplot. II suffit on offet quo le sous.enrogistroment soit A pen pi's le memo A chaquo Age. Le tableau 2 montro quo pour un nivoau do f6condit6 donn6, ootte r6partition par Ago vatic avoo la mortalit6 ot lo tableau 7 donno tine vuo un pen plus &Stain& du ph6nomenol. On volt quo pour un nivoau do f6condit6 donn6, la baisse de la mortalit6 aoorott in proportion dos d6ees do personnes Ag6es ot diminuo la proportion des d6ces des porsonnos jeunes. On observe uno sorto do pivotement de la structure par Ago autour du group? d'Ages 50-09 ans. L'6tudo do la structure par Ago dos d6cbs nous renseigne done sur los niveaux de fkondit6 ot de mortalit6, Si l'un de 008 niveaux est donne, l'autro est d6tormin6, D'uno facon plus pr6o1se, on pout, pour une composition par Age des d6c6 donne, d6torminer uno sale do couples de valeurs dos taux bruts de natalit6 et do mortalitd tels quo dans les populations stables modbles eorrespondantes los tikes aient la composition par Age consid6r6o, Le graphique 3 a 6t6 trac6 do ?ate facon pour diverses r6partitions par Age des does, cos repartitions tant rep6r6es par les pourcentages dos aces, ?es r6partitions 6tant rep6r6es par les pourcentages des d6ces de 60 ans et plus dans l'ensemble des &Sees de 5 ans et plus. Parmi les d6oes de 5 ans et plus enregistr6s en Colombie de 1930 A, 1950, il y a ell 35,5 % de d6ces de 60 am et plus. La courbe marqu6e 35 sur le graphique 3 correspond done assez bion an cas do in Colombie, On volt quo le point A correspondant aux couples do valeurs des taux bruts de mortalit6 ot de nata1it6 observ6s est assez loin de cetto eourbe aussi bion d'ailleurs quo le point B correspondant aux couples do valeurs des taux estim6s d'apres les deux m6thodes pr6c6dentes. Si l'on admet quo la r6partition enregistr4e des d6ces par Age est exacte, et quo les taux de natalit6 ot de mortalit6 enregistr6s sont des limites inf6rieure des vrais I Pour tenir ?myth du fait quo les d6e6s des jeunes enfants sont souvent mal aelar6s, on s'est limit6 dans ees deux tableaux aux (Nobs de 5 ans et plus. 13 TABLEAU 7. (A) Rdpartition par groupes didges des &de de 6 ans et plus dans paire populations stables corresponclant a un taux brut de reproduction de 8,0 et 4 quatre niveaux de mortalitd dormant des espdrances de vie a la naiseance reepectivement Oates 4 80, 40, 60 ei 00 ans, (B) Edpartition, par groom d'dge des ddees de 6 ane et plus enregietrde en Colombie de 1939 4 1960. Groupos (Pages to A Taux brut do reproduction 3,0 Hsi-Aram do vic it la naissanco (on anneos) 3u ' 4U 50 06 Woes onrogistr6s on Colomblo do 1930 a 1950 5-9 905 852 700 014 820 10-14 541 511 402 377 393 15-19 007 050 001 502 480 20-24 775 770 713 587 040 25-29 701 712 032 509 009 30-34 734 050 559 450 539 35-39 712 000 512 418 004 40-49 1.380 1.180 1.028 908 1,292 50-59 1.310 1.243 1,190 1,177 1.071 00-09 1,181 1.315 1,429 1.573 1.283 70 ot plus 1.033 1.511 2,108 2.884 2.203 Tous Ages 10.000 10.000 10.000 10.000 10.000 Taux brut do mortalit6 (pour 1000) 33,7 23,3 15,8 9,0 15,0 Taux brut de natalit6 (pour 1000) 47,7 40,0 44,9 43,8 4111.011??????????10 taux do nata1it6 et do mortalit6, tous los couples do valeurs lues sur lo segment CD do la oourbe marqu6o 35 % sont compatibles avec la repartition des tikes enrogistres, En C l'enregistrement des naissanoes est complet et il y a 49 % do sous.enregistroment des d6ces. En D l'enregistrement des d6obs est complot et il y a 11,4% de sous. enregistromont dos naissances. Dans l'intervalle, ii y a A. la fois sous.enregistroment dos naissances et des dikes. Mals tout cod suppose quo l'age an (likes est convenablement declare. Or on salt quo trbs souvont l'Age au d6obs est exag6r6. tine toile exag6ration produit le nAme effet qu'une baisse de la mortalit6 Ole accroit la proportion des d6cbs aux Ages 61ev6s et diminue la proportion des d6ces aux Ages jounes. Si l'on tient compte de cc ph6nombne de l'exag6ration de l'Age an d6ces, co sont tous les couples do valeurs lues dans Fake non hachure? du graphique 3 qui sont compatibles1 avec la composition par Age observ6. Autant dire quo cette composition par Age n'apporte aucun renseigne. 1 En pratique les taux brute de natalit6 et de mortalit6 sent aussi limit6s supessieurement. On pout admettre quo lee taux de natalite sent 'Messieurs it 130 % les taux de mortalit6 40%?. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 14 'Taus di mortalici pour 1000 40 30 20 10 30% 25% Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 20% aux do ft at pour 1000 40 SO GRAMM'S) 3. Courbos do variation du taux brut de mortalit6 on fonotion du taux brut de natal1t6 dans des populations stables modblos, pour divers pouroontages des d6cos do 60 ans ot plum parmi los Mobs do 5 ans et plus. ment supplementaire sur le niveau do la mortalit6 tant qu'on no connalt non du degre d'exageration de l'Age au deces, Il est done pormis d'interpreter la repartition des dikes onregistres en Colombie do 1030 d 1950 comme resultant d'une exageration do Page an (Webs, la vraio repartition 6tant la repartition stable correspondant hla combinaison des taux do natalit6 et de mortalit6 estimes respectivement d 47,3 pour 1000 et 25,0 pour 1000. On pout rdime par co moyen evaluer les effets de l'exageration de Page an deces sur la composition par Age des deces. Le tableau 8 present? un essai d'uno semblable evaluation. L'exageration de l'Age parait exister h tons les ages. Chaque groupe d'ages molt des deces qui normalement appartiennent aux groupes d'ages inferieurs et deverse des deces dans le groupe d'ages superieurl. De 35 a GO ans, les deux m 1 Pour rendre compte do la r6partition par Age dos cl6e6s enregistres en Colo d'exag6ration de l'Age au d6c6s devrait jouer de la manibre suivante : Poureentage des dde6s d'un groupe dedgea de 6 an paasant d ieur, par suite de l'exagdratto Groupe d'Aga on linnet) . 5-9 10-14 Pourcontage 30 OUVO- bie, be mocanisme WM le groupe didges de 6 ana aupdr. n de lidge au deda. Ui TABLEAU 8. &Rai d'dvaluation de l'exagdration de Me au ddea en Colombia de 1039 4 1050. ?mum d'Ago Mobs ono. DtIo66 dans la DiffOronoos "Pliinti"Colornbeon valours Atabloa 1939 15, 1950 nboolues DiffOronoos on % do la rOpartition par Ago dos (Moos onrogititrOs 5-9 801 820 041 5,0 10-14 516 303 123 31,3 15-19 652 480 100 34,2 20-24 771 640 131 20,3 25-29 720 609 111 18,2 30-34 664 530 126 23,2 35-39 11623 604 191 40-49 50-59 60-69 1,213 1,255 1,293 1.292 1.071 1.283 - 70 1841 10 3,1 70 et plus 1,432 2,203 -830 -86,7 15 ans ot plus 10.000 10.000 Taux brut do mortalit6 (pour 1000) 25,0 Taux brut do natalit6 (pour 1000) 40,3 a Obtonuo par interpolation dos populations stables du tableau 2 do tollo facon brut do mortalito soit ogal A 25 %, uo lo taux ments so componment A pen prbs et finalement tout so passe comme si environ 30 pour 100 des d6c6s de 5 h 34 ans passaient dans le groupo do 70 ans et plusl. ' En resume, lh oil Pon a des raisons do croire A l'inexactitude de ia declaration d'age des (Webs, on pout interpreter do fa ons hies diverses les ropartitions des decbs par Age observees et l'on pout on tirer A peu prbs n'importe quell? conclusion sur le niveau de la mcAtalit6 tent qu'on no sait Hen sur le degre d'exageration de rage an (Mobs. La comparai son des reeensements par groupe d'ages La comparaison do deux recensements successifs par group? d'ages est un moyen tres commode d'6valuer in mortalit6 quo,nd on no dispose pas de statistiques du mouvement de in population. Dans un pays ott le sous-enregistroment des deals es t Au.dossus do 30 titp ii faudrait done quo in totalit6 des doc6s de chaquo group? d'Agos de 5 ans passent dans lo groupe d'Ages suporieur. Cost co qu'on observerait si A partly de cot 5,ge, l'exag6ration de l'Age au d6ces consistait A donner nu dee6d6 un Age 6gal au multiple do 5 im? m6diatement supOrieur A l'Ago r6e1, Cost IA un comportement qui n'est pas impensable surtout si l'on tient compte de l'attraction qu'exercent les multiples do 5 dans los d6clarations d'Age, 1 Tout en qui pr6chde suppose quo lo sous.onregistrement des docbs est proportionnellement 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 etc, le m6me A chaque Ago. En r6alit6, on mesure lei l'effet global de l'exag6ration de l'Age au d6c6s 50 60 80 160 100 etc, et des variations du pourcentage d'enregistrement avec Vligo. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 10 do l'ordro do 50 pour 100, uno tollo comparalson dolt portnottro do mottro on (Widow) Co sous-onrogistroment, Lo tableau 9 donuts lo eldmonts Won calml do co genre pour la Colombio ontro los deux roconsoments do 1938 et 1951. Militant du r000nsomont do 1938, on a soustralt los doobo obsorves entre los deux r000nsoments par groupo do generation. On a oalould aim' la population qu'on auralt observe? au second r000nsomont on l'absonce do tout() migration et silos deobs avalont et6 oonvonablomont onrogistres. Dans un premier oaloul, on a utilisd los Mobs tots gulls ont 6t6 enrogistrds (partio superiouro du tableau 9). Dans un second oaloul on a utilise los Webs enregistres, corriges do l'oxageration do Page an deobs (partio inferiouro du tableau 9). Pour cotto correction, on s'ost sorvi dos resultats obtonus pr6o6dommont (voir tableau 8), On a admis quo l'oxageration do rage an deo& so romonalt h faire passer dans lo oinquibmo groupo do generation (05 ans et plus on 1938), 30 % dos &Sobs dos deux promibrs groupos do generations (5-19 ans ot 20-34 ans on 1938). Lo tableau 9 met en evidonoe des differences importantes entre la population oalouleo ot la population reconseo, A priori cos differonoos pouvont 6tro duos trois causes (a) dos mouvomonts migratoiros, (b) dos orrours au reconsements, (c) dos orrours clans l'enrogistroment dos deobs. Los migrations out 6t6 negligeables entre la Colombio ot l'etranger au cours do la period? consider6o ot ion pout &later cede cause, Pour etudior les doux autres, ii ost utile do commencer par quelques considerations theoriques. Soit k ot it respeotivernent les proportions do sous-onrogistroment aux ler et 26 reconsemonts et soit q la proportion do sous-onrogistroment des deobs, Pour un group? do generations donne, la population oaloul6o h la date du 20 recensement sera P1(1 ? k) ? D (1 q) ot la difference entre la population recenseo au 2? rocensement et la population caloulee sera : E Pi(1. k) D(1 ?q)?P2(1 ?h). Co qui s'eorit : E ta, 131(h k) D (q (1) Introduisons la population means& au ler reconsement P; P(1 k) et les deobs onregistres D' MI 0(1 ? q). L'equation (1) s'eorit E -- 1 EP-E- k , T.,,q h ==, " k 1? q (2) Admettons, a titre d'hypothese de travail, quo it, k et q soient les m6mes pour tous les groupes de generations, &est-A-dire quo le sous-enregistrement soit independant de Page. Pour chaque groupe de generations, on derira tine equation du type (2) et on obtiendra, Si n est le nombre de groupes de generations, un system de n equations h 2 ineonnues, 17 TABLRAt7 9. Colombia. Comparaieon par grouped Algae de la population monde en 1951 avec la population calculde en eouetrayant de la population remade en 1938 lea dale enregiatree entre lea deux reconemente Irea en millions). 1 2 3 4 5 a 9 Ago on re. consemont du II-VH.1938 Effootif 1111 11000n. somont do 1938 dog groups do generations ayant au reoonsomont do 1938 l'Age indique dans la promiero colonno Deoes on. rogistres ontro los doux r000n. foments dans log groupos do genera. tions Population oalouleo h la date du rocongemont Population r000ngeo to 9?V?1951 Difference Differonoo on % do la population r000ngeo on 1938 Difference on % dos (Woos cure. gistreg ontro los doux re- oensornontg 5-10 ans 3.209 107 3.042 2.884 158 4,9 95,2 20-34 ans 2.043 1.70 1.807 1.090 177 8,8 100,0 35-40 ans 1.238 174 1.004 950 114 9,2 08,5 50-04 ansa 035 185 450 350 100 15,7 54,1 05 ans ot + 234 215 19 44 - 24 ans ot + 7.350 017 0.442 5.918 524 7,1 57,1 Deo& on. rogistrom ontro les deux ro? consoments, corriges do l'exageration do l'ttge au tikes 0 Differences corrigeos do l'exage? ration do au deoes Differences oorrigeos on % tie la population r000nsee on 1038 Differences corrigoes on % dos deces onre? gistres entro los deux ro- consoments 5-19 ans 217 108 3,4 49,8 20-34 ans 229 124 6,1 54,1 35-49 arts 174 114 9,2 05,5 50-04 ans 185 100 15,7 54,1 05 nns et + 112 78 33,3 09,0 ti ans et + 917 524 7,1 57,1 Austiessus de 50 ans les oltiffres des reoensements ?tit 6t6 /Oust& pour tenir compte de l'attraotion de l'Age 00 tuts et de l'exageration de l'Age aux Ages 61eves. On a pris comme repartition par Age njust6e, la repartition par Ago d'une population stable correspondent. h un taux brut do reproduction de 3,0 et tine esperance de vie it itt naissanco de 40 ans. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 18 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 y . g4 ot 1 ? q Si notro hypothbse est exaote, dans un systbmo do coordonnees OX et 0 Y, los droites d'equation (2) soront oonoourrantos on un point d'ordonnee (q ? h)/(1 q) ot d'absoisso (h k)/(i. k). En fait, on no pout pas s'attendre h obtonir dos droites passant absolumont par lo memo point, no serait-co quo paroo quo l'hypotheise adoptoo do l'invarianco du sous-enrogistroment avoo l'Ago West sans douto qu'uno approximation. On pout du moms s'attondro A co quo los diverges droitos oiroonsorivont un polygon? par trop etondu dans loquol on pules? determiner sans trop d'ambigilitd un oontro dont los coordonndes pourront otre prises oommo tine solution oonvonablo du system? d'equa- tion A resoudre. Voyons comment 80 present? pratiquomont lo problbmo pour la Colombio. En utilisant los resultats du second calcul, &est-A-dire lo oaloul portant sur les deobs oorriges do l'exageration do l'Age au &as, lo systbme d'equation A resoudre s'eorit : 108 gm 3.209 X + 217 Y 124 MI 2.043 X + 229 Y 114'- 1.238 X + 174 Y 100 635 X + 185 Y 100 635 X + 185 Y 78 234 X + 112 Y Los pourcentages caloules dans les deux dernibres colonnes du tableau 0 sont los ordonnees et los abeisses A l'origine des droites du system? I. Le graphique 4 montro comment so present? la resolution graphique de co systbme. Los cinq droites du system? I circonscrivent un polygon? de faiblo etendue, Le point .111' d'abseisse nulle et d'ordonn6e 60 % fournit uno assez bonne solution du system? I. On a done Co qui s'eorit h? k A 1 - kg22 V 1 ? 2 h k, qe. 0,375 + ?h .} 1,6 Nous pouvons on tirer deux conclusions (a) Les deux recensemonts pouvent done etre consider& comme etant de memo precision (h k) (b) Le pourcentage de sous-enregistrement de aces de 5 ans et plus est an moms de l'ordre do 37,5 %. Los deux methodes precedentes nous avaient conduits A un sous-enregistrement de 40 % pour les deebs de tous Ages. On pout done penser quo h/1,6 est petit. C'est ld tin renscignement supplementaire sur la validit6 des recensements de in Colombie 10 GRAPHIQUE 4. 116so1ution graphiquo du systhno d'6quations N? Colombio. on 1038 et 1951. Nous avons au raison do les considdrer comme assoz exacts, Pour continuer le calcul, on a tenu h et k pour negligeables ot admis qu'on obtonait les deals reels do 5 ans et plus on majorant do 60 % los deebs enregistres. Passage du taux de 5 arts et plus au taux brut de mortalite Nous sommes maintenant en mesure de calculer to taux vrai de mortalite de 5 ans et plus. Le tableau 10 donne les elements d'un tel caloul. A l'aide de in seri? dos populations stables modbles considerees an debut de cot expose, on pout tracer sur un diagramme ott Von port? en abscisse lo taux brut do natalite et on ordonnee le taux brut de mortalite, les courbes A taux d'accroissement nature! constant et les courbes A taux de mortalite de 5 ans et plus constant, A l'intersection de in courbe corresponda,nt an taux d'accroissement nature! donne par in comparaison des deux recensements successifs et de In courbe du taux de mortalite de 5 ans et plus corrige du sous-enregistrement des aces de in fawn indiquee dans le tableau 10, on lit le taux brut de mortalit6 et le taux brut de natalite cherches, Dans in zone oit le diagramme s'applique en pratique, celui-ei se present? sous in forme de deux reseaux de droites parallbles. On pout done le transformer en un graphique du type nomogramme A, points aligns. C'est un tel nomogramme qui est Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 20 TABLEAU 10, Colombia. CA1014/ du faux rdei d mortalit4 de ti ON et plue pour (a 'hie& 1930-1950. Population do 5 ans ot plus au roconoomont do 1938 . 7.900.300 Population do 5 ans et plum au r000nsomont do 19111 . 9.008.079 Population moyonno 8.485,970 Mayon? dos NON annuals do a ans et plus onrogistrom do 1030 1050 78.733 Taux annuol moyon do mortalltd do 5 ans ot plus, onrogistro do 1930 it 1050 0,27 Taux annuol moyon do mortalitti do 5 ans ot plus, oorrig6 du souiponrogistromont don (Moos 14,8 %o roproduit sur lo graphique 5. Sur 'Whelk) de droito, on repbre le taux d'aocroissomont natural. Sur l'6ohelle de gaucho on mem le taux do mortalit6 de 5 ans at plus. La droite qui joint los deux points ainsi obtenus coupe l'iSchelle du milieu on in point qui donne le taux brut da mortalit6 ehorch6. Le taux brut do natalit6 s'obtiont 6v1- demment en ajoutant au taux brut do mortalit6 le taux d'acoroissement nature]. Si l'on prdbre, on pout utiliser aussi la formula num6riquo suivante 6quivalente au nomogramme 5. m .1,55 A? 14,6 + 0,3774 r 0,0220 Dans eette formula A est lo taux de mortalit6 de 5 ans et plus, r est la taux d'ac- croissement natural, in est le taux brut de natalite. Tous cos taux tant exprim6s pour 1000 habitants. . Dans le cas de la Colombia A gale 14,7 pour 1000 et r gale 22,3 pour 1000. Le nomogramme donne in r12120,7 pour 1000 et b or. 49,0 pour 1000. En r6surn6 nous diapasons maintenant des trois estimations suivantes pour les taux bruts de natalit6 et de mortalit6 do la Colombia pour la p6riode 1938-1951. Mho& des populations stables modoles 1116thode de l'invarlance do la structure par Age Mothode de la comparison des reamse rnents successils par group? de gdn6ra? Mons Taux moyens enregistr6s de 1930 A. 1950 Taux brut de natalit6 (pour 1000) 47,3 45,6 49,0 33,1 Taux brut de mortalito (pour 1000) 25,0 23,3 26,7 15,1 On no petit gubre esp6rer un meilleur accord entre ces trois estimations. Tann de TM brut mortallti de di mortallt6 5 ans it plus 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 altAritIQUII 5. %a 'roux mint natural 40 30 20 10 21 Un autro exemple, la population du Chili Le cas du Chili v a nous donnor ur apergu do In variete des problbmes poses par l'application des methodes precedenies. On trouvera dans le tableau suivant les donnees brutes permettant d'appliquer in methodo des populations stables modeles. Date dos reeensements Population rooms& Rapport des personnes de 5 A 14 ans aux porsonnes de 5 ans et plus 28-X1-40 5.023.539 0,2827 24-1V.52 5.932.005 0,2785 Valour moyenne 5.478.267 0,2806 Taux d'iteeroissemont entre les deux reeensements r 14,8 pour 1000 Les mouvements migratoires ayant en un effet negligeable sur in population du Chili an cours de in period() consideree, on pout prendre comma estimation du taux Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 22 d'aooroismomont naturol la valour du taux d'aooroissomont ontro los doux room- monts, Lo nomogram= 2 donne alors pour 1940-1952 un taux brut moyon do natalitd b 43,0%o ot un taux brut moyon do mortalltd m 28,3%0, Los statistiquos du mouvomont naturol do la population au Chili fournissont los chitin's suivants do 1940 i 19$2. Nombros ab sol us illoyonno nnnuollo dos nes vivants onrogistres dons los doux fins qui suivent la naissanoo do 1040 4 1951 180.141 iloyonno annuollo des deoes onrogistres do 1940 4 1951 08.919 Taux brut moyon (pour 1000) 18,1 Lo Unix do natalit6 do 32,9 est cortainomont infdriour 4 la rdalitd puisqu'il ost ?Mould sur los ns vivants onrogistrds clans los deux ans qui suivant lour naissanoe. II est dono normal quo Postimation prdo6donto fasso apparattro un sous-onrogistromont dos naissanoes, Lo sous-onrogistromont dos (Webs est plus surpronant, los autoritds ohilionnos oonsiddrant on offet quo les statistiquos dos dikes sont completes. Exa- minons co quo donnont los autros mdthodos, Nous laissorons provisoiremont do odtd la mdthodo bast% sur l'invarianoo do la structure par Ago ot nous passerons tout do suito h la comparaison clos r000nsements do 1940 et do 1932 par groupos do gdndra- tions. Le tableau II donno los 616ments do oat? oomparaison. TABLEAU 11. Chili. CoMparaieon par groupe d'dge8 de la population recenade en 1952 avec la population cakuld'e en aoustrayant de la population wens& en 1940 lea d4ce8 enregistris entre 1e8 deux receneementa (en millier8). Ago an rocensomont 28.XI-1940 Effootif an roconsement do 1940 dos groupos do generations ayant tnt ro- consomont do 1940 indique dans la promiero ()Monne Deo& on. rogistres ontro los doux re. consomonts dans los groupos do generations Population oalculde hi dato tin douxiemo roconsomont No ft......???????=10.1?10 Pm????????????? Population moonset) on 1952 24.1174952 Differonoo on % do la Difference population r000nseo on 1940 Differenco on % dos does onro? gistres ontro los deux townsemonts 5-14 tins 15-29 ans 30-44 tins 45-30 ansa 60-74 an 75 ans et + a 5 fins et+ 1.244 1.397 942 548 233 38 ? war en moor ma 1. 6,4 mididrsokiraig. em. II ? no ? ? ? 53 1.101 1.130 01 4,9 115,1 115 1.282 1.178 104 7,4 90,4 118 824 755 09 7,3 118,5 136 412 887 25 4,6 18,4 134 90 89 13 5,6 9,7 74 3 630 3.772 3,539 233 5,3 37,0 a Los (+Wm/ drim toconsonionts ont 6t6 ajustes au.dossits do 50 ans. Lo oaloul conduit b, uno population negativo qui n'a auoun Bens. 23 La dornior group? do gdndrations figurant an tabloau 11 conduit i uno population ndgativo, L'oxagdration do l'Ago an (Mobs pout sans douto expliquor co rdsultat, dtant donn6 lo grand Ago do co groupo do gdndrations. Dans oe qui va suivro, on no tiondra pas oornpto do co dornior group''. Avoo los notations utilisdas prdoddommont pour la Colombie, lo system? d'dquations lindairos s'dorit 1.244 Y + 53 X mg 01 1.397 Y + 115 X 101 942 Y + 118 X Ea 09 548 Y+136 XgR 25 233 Y + 134 X al 13 Lo graphiquo 6 montro oommont so prdsonto in rdsolution do co system?. Lo point N d'absoisse 0,07 ot d'ordonndo ?0,06 fourffit uric solution approolt6 oonvonable, On a done los relations approohdos suivantes h? k 171-4111),07, 7-7-11* 1/? 0,06 1? q qui pouvent s'dorire h#0,06 + 0,94 q, 1 140,07 + 0,93 k, j on onfin avec uno nouvollo approximation h#0,06 + q, La premiere relation montro quo h est au moms 6gal a 0,06. Ii y a dono cu on 1952, dans le recensoment des personnes de 5 ans ot plus, un sous-enregistreinent d'au moms 6 %. Cotte tame relation montro dgalement quo q n'est pas treks grand. &non, I et k seraient grands aussi et do grandes orrours sur le reconsement sont improbables. Mais que faut-il entendre exaotoment par q petit ot par des statistiques d'enrogistre- ment completes? Ii semble quo q no puisse guere &passer un pourcentage do quelques units. Si q dgalo 4 % par exempla, h sera 6ga1 di 10 %, co qui reprdsente ddja une erreur itnportante sur le reconsement de 1952. Pour continuer le oaloul, on a dono suppos6 quo in oompldtude d'enregistrement des aces dtait comprise entre 96 % et 100 % et on a mend les oalculs pour les deux limites, On va volt' quo les r6sultats d6pendent assez pou de la valour adopt6e pour q. Reprenons aveo le reconsement de 1052 ainsi eorrige les trois m6thodes d'estimation de in natalit6 et de la mortalit6. Le tableau 11 donne les d6tails d'application de in mdthode des populations stables modeles (nomogramme 2). On volt quo les rdsultats sont i pen pres les milmes pour les deux oompl6tudes d'enregistroment des &ices adoptdes pour le calcul, Pour les deux autres methodes on s'est content6 d'un soul calcul. imInecifical in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 013/02/20 . - 81 01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 24 120 100 80 60 40 20 0/0 GRAPHIQUE O. Resolution graphiquo du system? d'equations N? II Chili. #10141111110 Le tableau 14 se r6fbre 4 la m6thode basoe stir l'invariance de la composition par age. Le tableau 13 montre quo depuis 1007 la structure par Age de la population du Chili a subi pen de ohangement, cc qui justifio romploi de la m6thode. La table do survie qu'on obtient pr6sente quelques irr6gularit6s qu'il serait facile de corrigcr par uno method? d'ajustement quelconque. Cate table de survie donne une esp6rance de vie A Page de 7,5 ans 6gale A 52,8 ans. Dans les tables do mortalit6 modeles, l'esp6raiice de vie A la naissanee correspondante est de 47,5 ans. Ce qui correspond A nit taux brut de mortalite de m 17,7 %O. Lo taux brut de natalit6 s'obtient en ajoutant A ee taux le taux d'acoroissement nature] r' 20%0, on a done 6 37,7%0. Dans to tableau 15 enfin, on utilise la m6thode de comparaison des recensoments par group? de g6ndration (nomogramme 5) en supposant quo l'enregistrement des aces est oomplet (q 0). 20 TADLARAIT 12. Chili, Netimation du Num brut annuel moyen de la natalitet et de la morlalitd pour la periode 1940-,1962 an utilieant la tnithode dee population,' stable,' modeles. Rapport dos per. Date dos sonnos do 5 A. 14 Populations r000nsomonts ans aux porsonnos r000nseos do 5 arm ot plus Populations oorrigeos on admottant pour la oompletudo do l'onrogistromont dos dean los pouroontagos suivants 100% 90% 28.XI?1940 0,2827 5.023.530 5,023.539 5.224,481 241 V.1952 0,2785 6,932.905 0,288.975 0.520.295 Valour moyonno 0,2806 11,056,267 5,871388 Taux d'aooroissomont ontro los doux r000nsomonts oaloule sur Ws populations oorrigeos (pour millo) 10,9 19,0 Nombro annuol moyon do nes vivants onrigistres dans los cloux ans suivant lour naissanoo, do 1940 6 1951 . 180,141 Taux brut ammo' moyon do natalite onrogistr6 (pour inillo) 31,9 30,6 Nombre annuol moyon do Moos onrogistres do 1940 d 1051 98.959 Taux brut annuol moyon do mortalit6 onrogistr6 (pour mine) 17,5 10,8 Taux brut annuol moyon do natalit6 Pu sur lo nomogrammo 2 (pour millo) 38,0 38,3 Taux brut annuol moyon do mortalite oorrospondanta (pour millo) 18,1 18,7 a Differonoo ontro lo taux do natalit6 Pu sur lo nomogrammo 2 ot lo taux d'aooroissomont oaloul6 sur los populations oorrigeos. TABLEAU 13. Compoeition par grand,' groupee d'dgee de la population du Chili aux einq derniere reeeneetnente. Groupo (on ann6e) ?????????111MINIMINNINIMMIRly, 1907 Ann& dos r000nsoments 1920 1930 1940 1052 0-9 25,9 26,2 20,2 26,0 20,4 10-19 22,2 22,4 21,9 22,3 20,7 20-29 17,9 17,9 18,2 17,0 17,2 30-39 12,4 13,0 13,0 13,4 12,8 40-49 9,1 9,1 9,2 0,0 9,9 50-59 6,1 5,6 5,8 6,2 6,6 00-60 3,8 3,5 3,5 3,7 4,0 70-70 1,7 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,7 80 et plus 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,7 Tous Ages 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 iTh1fiar4 In Part - Sanitized Com/ Approved for Release 2013/02/20 . - 1043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 20 TABLEAU 14, O4W Ponction de aurae au.dcaaus de 7,4 ans pour la period.) 1940- 1942 calculde our la atructure par eke moyenno dee recensemente de 119610 et 1042 en utilisant un taw d'accroissement naturel de 20 Xio, crow Ago moyon d'Ages (annex)) (antulo) (a) Composition par Ago aux r000nsomonts 28?X1?1940 2441%1952 Valour moyenno 0(a) (1+ 0,02)ao(a) (1 + 0,024) Fono ? tion do survio 11?11?11111?11011MM. 0-4 12,4 13,2 5-9 7,5 12,0 13,2 12,9 1,10 1.407 1,000 10-14 12,5 12,1 11,0 11,5 1,28 1,473 984 15-19 17,4 10,2 0,7 10,0 1,41 1,414 045 20-24 22,5 0,1 0,5 9,3 '1,60 1,451 909 25-29 27,5 8,4 7,0 8,0 1,72 1.379 921 30-34 32,5 7,0 0,4 0,7 1,00 1,275 852 34-39 37,5 0,4 0,4 0,3 2,10 1.323 883 40-44 42,4 5,3 5,4 15,3 2,32 1.230 822 45-49 47,5 4,3 4,4 4,4 2,50 1.127 753 50-54 52,2 3,5 3,9 3,7 2,83 1,040 099 55-59 57,5 2,8 2,8 2,7 3,12 843 503 00-04 02,5 2,4 2,5 2,5 3,45 892 570 05-00 67,5 1,3 1,0 1,4 3,81 533 350 70-74 72,5 1,0 1,2 1,1 4,20 402 309 711-79 77,11 0,5 0,0 0,5 4,04 232 155 80-84 82,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 13,12 2013 137 86 ot plus 87,5 0,3 0,3 0,3 5,00 170 114 Tous ?s 100,0 100,0 TABLEAU' 15. Chili, Estimation du taux brut annuel mu yen de mortalitd et de natalitd pour la pdriode 1940-1952 en utilisant la mdthode de comparaison par groupe de gdnd? ration des recensements de 1940 et 1952. Date dos roconsoments Population do 5 ans et plus rocons6o Population de 5 arks ot plus corrig6o 28-X1?40 4.401.530 24?1V?52 5,153.850 Valour moyenne Nombro annual moyen do &Ws do 5 ans 4.401.530 5,403.087 4,932.311 et plus onrogistr6s do 1940 1951 . . 56.411 Taux annual moyen do mortalite de 5 ans et plus onrogistr6 de 1940 a 1051 . 11,4 %? Taux annual moyon d'acoroissoment do In population total? do 1940 t 1051 caloul6 sur les populations corrig6es r' - 20 % Taux brut moyon do mortalit6 lu sur le nomogramme 2 17,0 % Taux brut moyon do natalit6 correspondant b 37,0 %0 27 Finalomont on a los trots tivaluations sulvantos Taux brut do natalite (pour 100) Taux brut do mortalit6 (pour 1000) Mothodo do populations stablos modolos 38,0 18,1 11f6thodo do l'invarianoo do In struoturo par ago 37,7 17,7 146thodo do In oomparalson dos rooms?. monts par group? do g6n6ration 37,0 17,0 Taux onrogistr6s oommo ii ost indiqu6 au tableau 12 (dans to oaso 0) 31,0 17,5 L'acoord ontro los resultats donnes par los trols methodos est excellent. La com- paraison dos estimations avoo los taux onrogistres montro quo l'onrogistromont dos &Sobs est pratiquornont oomplot ot qu'il oxisto un sous-onrogistromont dos naissanoos do l'ordro do 20%1, Conclusions Lo deux oxomplos quo nous vonons d'etudior un pou on detail montront bion la oomplexit6 dos problbmes qui so posont quand on vout tiror dos r000nsements do population dos renseignemonts sur la natalit6 ot la mortalite. Los methodes dont nous venons d'expofer lo prinoipo no doivont jamais etre appliqueos mkaniquement. Chaque oas dolt etro soigneusement 6tudi6 on fonotion do toutes los donnees possibles. L'effet dos mouvements migratoiros quo nous avons Pu laissor do cote dans los deux oas envisages pane qu'il etait faible, pout devenir trbs important dans d'autres populations. Enfin nous nous sommos places dans le oas Pon disposait pour un m6me pays do deux reconsements pas trop 6loignes l'un do l'autre paroo quo &est un oas qu'on rencontre souvent dans la pratique. Mais on pout developper, h partir des populations stables, Wen d'autres methodes adapt6es aux donnees dont on dispose. Un soul reoensement, un 6ohantillon de deobs, un echantillon de forums classees suivant le nombre des enfants nes et le nombre dos enfants survivants, etc. sont dos donnees suffisantes pour obtenir des resultats interessants. Une application systematique do oes diversos methodes est on ()ours au Service de la Population des Nations Unies. On pout d6jA, dire quo le principe d'assimilation dos populations des pays sous-developpes 11 des populations stables fournit un puissant outil d'analyse de la situation demographique de cos pays. I Pour intorpr6ter co r6sultat, II oonviont do so souvenir qua le taux de natalit6 enrogistr6 no porte quo sur les n6s vivants enrogistr6s moms de deux ans apr6s lour naissaneo. ariifiri in Part - Sanitized CODY Approve 013/02/20?CIA RDP81 01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 28 SUMMARY Thie article illustrates with two concrete oxamplos?Colombia and Chilo?momo of the methods devised by the Population Branch of the Bureau of Social Affairs of the United Nations for measuring the level of fertility and mortality for countries where vital statistics are deficient. In the first part of the papor, the poa- Hibility of associating the population of most under-developed countries with stable populations is demonstrated. In this contoxt, a sot of model stable populations calculated by associating six levels of mortality (expectation of life at birth, ranging from 20 to 70 years) with six levels of fortility (gross reproduction rate ranging from 1 to 4) is prosontod. Throo ostimating methods arc then discussed. In the first method, it is assumod that the annual rate of increase and the ago composition of the population are avail- able from censuses. By idontifying the stable population whose characteristics most nearly coincide with those of the observed population, estimates of the levels of fertility and mortality of the actual population can be derived. The second method rests on the as- sumption that, as in a stable population, the age composition at a given moment results from the ratio of natural Increase observed at that moment as applied to the stationary population corresponding to the mortality of the same moment. In other words, in multiplying the ago composition by the function oxp (ria) whore rt is the rate of natural increase and a the ago, one obtains the stationary population. The third method consists of comparing cohorts at two censuses and by applying registered deaths. By this moans, an evaluation of the under-registration of deaths of individuals 5 years and over is obtained. Deaths under ago 6 are then estimated in relation to deaths at ages 6 and over, and a total crude death rate is obtained. Tho principle of associating the popula- tion of an under-developed country with a stable population has a wide-range of applications. The methods studied here represent only some examples of what can be done. More extensive work is now in process in the Population Branch of the United Nations. 'Uppsala 1057, Almqvint & Wilsons 13oktryckeri AD Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 :,CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 INTERNATIONELLA STATISUSK A INSTITUTET L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE STATISTIQUE THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 3 0 SESSION' STOCK HOLM 11/8-15/0 1957 BERECHNUNG DER HEIRATMAHRSCHEINLICHKEITEN DER LEDIGEN1 DER VERWITINETENt DER GESCHIEDENEN UND BERECHNUNG DER EHESCHEIDUNGSWAHRSCHEINLICHKEITEN AUS DEN ERGEBNISSEN DER VOLKSZAHLUNGEN von Ivo Lah Belgrad Mit Lx,Sx9MxtWx9Dx bezolchnen wir die Zahlen ia.or, lediger, ver- heirateter, verwitweter, geschiedenor Peruonen, die am Zdhltage (x ? 0.5 oder mehr, jedoch wlniger is (x + 0.5) Jahre 1t mind. Es it Sx + Mx + Wx + Dx = Lx Die Verha1tniszah1en der lodigen, vorheirateten, verwitweten, schiedenen Porsonen bezeichnen wir mit einem Apostroph; nhmlich Sx lYqc M X? L X W; C = WX LX = ? : Lx Es 1st /2/ Mit PIO PXYPX,Px, Px bezeichnen wir die einjdhrigen Erlebenswahr- scheinlichkeiten aller, lediger, verheirateter, verwitweter, geschiedener Personen. s w d Schliesslich bezeichnen wir mit 1..txt p,x, plc die einjahrigen Heirats- wahrscheinlichkeiten der ledigen, verwitweten, geschiedenen Personen und mit 61c die einjahrigen EbescheidungswahrscheinliChkeiten der Verheirateten. s w Die Aufgabe, die wir uns stellen, 1st, die Werte von p.x, ktx, bx aus W;c, 1:1;c zu berechnen. + 4. Fur eine stationare Bevnkerung, d.i. fur eine Bevnkerung konstan- ter Natalitat, Nuptialitat, Divortialitdt, Mortalitdt und ohne Migration gelten folgende Gleichungen: Lx+1= Lx1ox Sx+1 Sp (1 ? ) mx.o. Pri)'c Pny' ( ? s x w x mwd4 D x P ()lc ) ( x * ( ? ) likr +1 " Wxw. Px ( + Mxpilx141(1 w w d d. WxPxP,r. DxPxPiX k 1 ) 1 2X ? ,ox) nyl Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 S SXPXi1X+.'. /4/ /5/ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Pxci (1 ? 141 et + ?41c9.)11-lex'' l& 144 4' /6/ Vorotehende Formein sind leloht verst4n1lioh. z. B. it dio Zahl der Lodigen sy+1/5/ gleioh der Zahl Sxmatipliziert mit dor Firlebonswahx- soheinlichkeil aorx-ijiihrJuon Lei gen und mit dor Wahrschuinliohkeit, class die Ledigen im Laufe dew Jahr ez ni.7:14:11t he,raterl (1 - DQsgloiohon it die Uhl der Verheirateten 114,1/6/ gleich dor Zoll 11x, multipliziert mit der Erlebenewahrsoheinlichkoft dctr Gatten Tilillm'Lt der Erlebenswahr- soheinliohkeit der im Duruhschnitt y Jahre alt4p Gattinen und mit der Wahrucheinlichkeit, doss die Oatten im Tg?lufe dos Jahreo nicht schei- den (1 bx) vergrossert um den Zuwacb d ii Laufe des Jahres Veuver- heiratoten. Dicier Zuwacho it gleioh don Zahion aer Ledigen, der Witwer, der Geochiedenen, jedu Zahl mulUpicioTt mit der antspreohmnden Erlebens- und Heiratswahrucheinlichkett, und die $umme der P.:odukte multipliziert mit der Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Catten nach der Heirat jodoch 70r Ablauf des Jahres nict 8chei6en 1 - Wurat rajJ der Wahrsoheinliohlwit, dass die Gattinen vor Ablauf dos jithvos nicht sterbon wobei wir annohmen, dass die Ehen im Durch6chnitt in der N:Ltte deo Talixes 3e- sch1osoen werdon. Uuw. Usw. Eine derartige stationUre Bov6Jkona1c exisiort in Wirklichkeit so gut wie nicht. Infolgedesoen millasen die Yomeln /4/ bis /8/ geochrieben werden, wie folgt: Ix +1' kxLxPx Sx +1' k)sc Sx ( 1 ? ? 1VIX + 1 = k 1)1CIE MX ( 1 ma ?X ) t r 9 1? fr" 1 ( 1= k ( , vt m( ci 4 vrx ri)vic p.xw ox 14:(1 ) , , L.) Dx + = k)clr.DxP)cic. ( ? my. prxii , Po 1,1% 'n , jsc ) Die G-Ossen 1' - .1P? 1 wka inenncil wir Mrfrktoren des stationdren ' 'If P 1 A Zustandes der gesamten, Iec1igen, vosheiratoten, verwitweten, geschiedenen BevOlkerung. Dieselben hangen von den Ando.7unuon aer NatalitUt, Nuptiali- tbit, Divortia1it6t, Mortalitatl Ils aucb von 'ler Migration ab, FUr die ;veitere Rechnung nehmen vir mei Hypothe6.en an und zwart I/ Wir nehmen an dass die Stevblichkeit .vo,- Zivilstande unabidneig ist d.i. Px Ps pra x /9/ Dies entspricht selbstver3tttndlih nicht ganz und gar der tirklichkrAt, jedoch diesbezUglicher Fehler st crfahrungsgemdss so klein, dass er ohne weiteres vernachlLissigt verden kann, 2/ Wiz nehmen welter an, class auch die Stol.faktoren des statiordren Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043ROO1lonnpnnn9_q +.4414 r? a* Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 777177.7r.r? INI eff Zustandes vom Ziviistande unabhdngig sind, d.i, kx m m km m m kd ? Auoh dies entoprioht nioht ganz und Kar der Wirkliolikeit, jedoeh der Fehler kann im ?meson und Ganzen nicht gross nein. je grOsser die Natali- tat und die Immigration it und je kleiner die Oterbliohkeit it, desto eTdrisor.ist nioht nur Lx QondQrn auch S,NI W und umgekehrt. v x? Mittels Division von /5*/, /6*/, /7*/, /8*/,duroh /4*/ und unter Beachtung von /2/, /9/1 /IV/ bikommen wir folgende 'vier ftir die Berech- nung der Unbekannten plo q, 6.x notwonaleo und .ausreichende Gleichungen: 2;44 S;( ( ) TqC+i= ( 'mu + iir51 18 ( 1 x+1 x I2xv cly ( 1 ? Cil:t + $11 + + i4xd ) Pdwx /13/ D4) /14/ Sofern unsere Hypotheoen Uber die Unabhdngigkeit der Sterblichkeit und der Storfaktoren vom Zivilstande der Wirklichkeit entsprechen, sind die Formeln /11/ bis /14/ exakt, sonst sind sie aber Ndherungsformeln, deren Prdzision davon abhdngt, wie weit unsere Hypothesen von der Wirk- lichkeit abweichen. Die Bereshnung von 1taus /11/ ist sehr einfach, wogegen die Bestim- mung von 14,.4, bx aus /12 /13/, /14/ mit rechnerischen Schwierigkeiten verbunden 1st, da die Elimination je zweier Unbokannten zu einer Gleichung vierten Grades der dritten Unbekaanten fUhrt. Wir haben also fUr jedes Alter X eine biguadratische Gleichung aufzulosen um 4! bx zu bestimmen, w d Gecen vorstehende 14ethode der Berechnung von px,p, aus /12/, /13/, /14/ kann man einwenden, dass die Ehescheidungswahrscheinlichkeiten ox und die Sterbenswahr3chein1ichkeiten der Prauen gy fUr die im letzten Jahre die Ehe Schliessenden nicht dieselben sind, vile fUr die iibrigen Ver- heirateten, welche die Eh o schon vor einem oder mehreren Jahren geschlos- sen haben. Das gleiche gilt auch fUr 4 /13/ und 14 /14/ fur diejenigen Verheirateten, die im letzten Jahre Witwer oder Geschiedene geworden sind. AU8 diesem Grunde sind nach latlichkeit im Gleichungssystem /12/, /13/, ' /14/ passende Korrekturen anzubringen. + Vor Auflosung des G1eichungs6ystems /II/ bis /14/ mUssen die empi- rischen Werte ,T4c Igx 1],k fein ausgeglichen werden, well schon recht kleine Pehler dor empirischen Werte sehr grosse Diskontinuitaten in der Folgc der Zahlen ppcs, 147 kLIdc,,verurschon. Die graphischen und mechanischen Ausgleichsmethoden haben nicht die notwendige Peinheit. Es kommt daher nur analytische Ausgleichanc in Betracht. In die Einzelheiten der analytischen Ausgleichung von 13,.,14,71r;c4EK,welche wir im nachstehenden zahlenmdssigen Beispiel angewendet haben, k6nnen wir an dieser Stelle 'eider nicht ein- gehen. Wir bemerken nur, dass es am besten 1st, analog der Gompertz- Makeham-schen Idee vorzugehen, nbAlich die Nuptialitat und Divortialitat Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 -4- mittels "force of nuptiality" bzw. "force of divorciality" zu erklUren, welehe mit der intensitat I(X)gomessen wird, Unter -der Intenaitat einer Funktion COO verateht man -die Anderung der Funktion in der unendlich kleinen Zeit dX7bereohnet au f Funktions- und Zeiteinheit. af(X) I( x) /15/ SIX)dx Die Funktion f(x) it so zu h1cn, class sio im niedrigston heirats- Migen Alter und im Alter, mit wolchem die analytische Ausgleichung geschlossen wird, gegebenen Anfangsbildingungen nicht nur in Bezug auf den Wert sondern auch in Bezug auf die erste Ableitung genugt. Ausserdem muss die Funktion f(x) eine entsprechende Zahl von Parametern enthalten, die nach der Liethode der 10,einsten Quadrate se zu bestimmen sind, class sich die ausgeglichenen Werte mbglichst an dJo empirischen Werte anschmiegen. Zu beaohten Jut, daso die ausgeglichenen Wert? we ten au f fun f oder sechs Dezimulen berechnet worden !W.:Innen. + + Wir haben unow:e theoretiachen AusfUhrungen an de: i Alters- und Zivil- standgruppiorung der jugoolawischen 10,nn1ichen Bevolksrung am Zdhltage zahlenmelosig a1.erprUft.1/ Die empirischen Verhdltniszahlen v9 is;, W' D; sind nuf vier Dezimalon abgerundet in der Tabolle 1 gegeben. X9 Die elngeklammerten Geburtsjahreivon /1915/ bis /1895/ bzw4 die eKngeklam,- merten Alterojahre von /33/ bis /53/ bedeuten Quinquennien, da die empi- rischen Zahlen fUr einzeine Altevsja%re nur von x 15 bis x= 30 vorlie- gen. Die empirischen Zahlen fUr 10% /53/ haben wir bei der Ausgleichung, nichtd berUcksichtivl, well dioselbon unzuverldssig Lind... Die Grossen w 60 ?x, x ttr x 53 konnen Ubrigcns am been mittels geeigneter Extra- polation bentimmt werden. +IP I/ Von der tbarprafung uer Methode an der jugoslawischen weiblichen Bevolkerung mussten absehen, da die Zahlen der Witwen 1/St durch die beiden 1,:e1tkriege stark perturbie:r.t sind, so dass wir die daraus sich ergebenden Schwierigkeiten der analytischen Ausgleichung von W' bisher nicht bewaltgen konnton. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Empirinehe Vorhaltniozahlen Ougoolawielohen mUnnliohen BeOlkerung nach Zivilatand un. Alter am Zahltage 15.111.1948. ...... ............ Geburte- jahr , Alt or1 Ledige Verheira- tete 1 Verwit. I wete Geschiedene x 100 S. 100 Mx 1.00 W' x 100 lqc 1 2 3 4 .5 6 1933 15 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1932 16 99.37 0.62 0.01 .0.00 1931 17 97.96 2.00 0.03 0.01 1930 18 94.67 5.27 0.04 0.02 1929 19 00.45 11.42 0.07 0.06 1928 20 79.83 19.93 0.14 0.10 1927 21 77.66 21.86 0.15 0.13 1926 22 70.61 29.04 0.19 0.16 1925 07 ...) 63.45 36.09 0.24 0.22 1924 24 55.76 43.64 0.31 0.29 1923 25 49.02 50.22 0.40 0.36 1922 26 42.08 57.02 0.50 '0.40 1921 27 36.27 62.73 0.50 1 0.44 1920 28 30.43 68.30 0.75 , 0.52 1919 29 23.04 75.85 0.61 0.50 1918 30 21.03 77.65 0.73 0.59 /1915/ /33/ 14.42 ?83.91 1.01 0.66 /1910/ 138/ 9.10 88.48 1.71 0.71' /1t)09/ /43/ 6.38 90.02 2.89 0.71 ' /1900/ ? /48/ 4.99 39.71 4.63 0.67 /1895/ /53/ 4.60 ,88.10 6.59 0.71 Tabelle 1. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R0013000800n7 2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 -6- IIu Die analytineh auegogliohenen VerhUltniazahlen aid mit Slo D bezeiahnet und in der Tabelle 2 gegeben. Dieaelben aind au a den Zahlen der Taballe 1 null folgenden Formeln auf Peoha Dezimalen genau bereohnet: X 0 01, 4 + 1926 3 11 38 53 ? x in / ON lFOOMMIIMPINIUMMININO 38 38 1 464202- - 0 31 63on 00092(x - 15 Wx m 0,.0659( 2.Q37 ("). 38 ri 2.743611 = 0 .007e 1 fUr x 38-x ln x ? 15 ( =+ 2,3 23 1 = 0.007 fiir x = 38, 30,...53 it M x = 1 Dx" moon lao.1 15 7 2 16, /16/ /17/ Da Jugoslawien keine ftir das ganze Staatsgebiet giltige Sterbetafel hat, haben wir die Sterbenswahrucheinlichkeiten der Frauen qy durch eine lineare Kembination der bedIden slowenische,n Volkssterbetafeln aus der Be- obachtungsperiode 1931/332/ bzw. 1948/523/ ermittelt. Aus verschiedenen Erfahrungen haben wir festgestellt, dass folgende 1ineare Kombination 31/7)3 q = .8q 02q48/52 /20 am besten der Frauensterblichkeit in ganz Jugoslawien ontspricht. Die nach /20/ berechneten Sterbenswahrocheinlichkeiten der Frauen qv sind in der Spalte /6/ der Tabelle 2 gegeben. 2/ Lah Ivo: "Bases techniques pour les assurances sur la vie", DrZavni zavod za socijalno osiguranje, Zagreb, 1947. 3/ Dr. jllejed Marijan; "Tablice umrljivosti prOivaistva LR Slovenije", Zavod za statistiko LE Slovenije, Ljubljana, 1955. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 I ? IN Analytinoh auegegliohene Verhaltniazahlen der jugonlawinohen mUnnliohen Rev6lkerung naoh Ziviletand und Alter am Zahltage 15.11141940. un. aueFeglio.hene Sterbonowahrooheinliohkeiten jugoolRwinoher Prauen, 1111.1111111111111111111111M11.1111????? Ledige Verheira- Verwit- tete wete Sterbene- Geeohie- wahreohein- dene , liohkeiten der Frauen x, y 2.000 Sx" 1000 mx" 1000 W1)(1 3.000 Dx" 1000 qy 1 Y5 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 2 1000.000 993.414 977.490 944.307 894.090 830.546 758.746 683.553 608.897 537.586 471.399 411.299 357.644 310.380 269.192 233.614 203.100 177.090 155.035 136.413 120.755 107.632 96.668 87.528 79.929 73.624) 68.399 64.070 60.496 57.537 55.096 53.07s 51.418 50.048 48.927 48.017 47.287 46.722 46.300 3 0.000 6.528 22.243 55.042 104.704 167.533 238.478 312.696 386.277 456.432 521.401 580.234 632.587 678.523 718.362 752.575 781.709 806.325 826.967 644.153 858.346 869.967 879.381 886.912 892.813 897.301 900.576 902.608 904.120 904.635 904.426 903.564 902'.067 900.029 697.395 694.181 890.371 885.924 f380.800 4 0.000 0.040 0.162 0.366 0.650 1,010 1.443 1.946 2.515 3.148 3.842 4.595 5.406 6.274 7.200 8.165 9.230 10.337 11.511 12.756 14.076 15.478 16.970 18.560 20.258 22.075 24.025 26.122 28.384 30 628 33.478 36.358 39.495 42.923 46.678 50.802 55.342' 60.354 65.900 5 0.000 0,018 0,105 0.285 0.556 0.911 1.333 1.805 2.311 2.834 3.358 3.872 4.363 4?823 5.246 5.626 5.961 6.248 6.487 6.678 6.823 6.923 6.981 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.009 t).000 6 3.22 3.45 3.63 3.77 3.84 3.88 3.92 3.97 4.05 4.18 4.35 4.54 4.73 4.91 5.08 5.24 5.41 5.61 5.82 6.06 6.29 6,50 6.67 6,80 ,6.9l 7.01 7.16 7.36 7.66 8.08 8.60 9.23 9.93 Tabelle 2. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Ap?roved for Release 2013/02/20: - - o4:1Rnniqnn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 V'i' halm weiter? angenommen, duo dao Alter deo Gatten durchwee dem Alter der Gattin aleioh it, doh. wir huben angenommenX y wao e@lbot- vorstdndlich durohaus nioht der Fall int, Es mUsste vielmehr jedes Al- ter der Gatten x das durchsohnittliche Alter der Gattinen y berechnet warden. Die so bereohneten empirioshen Durchschnittsalter der Gattinen mUnsten nachher Vein analytisch ausgeglichen werden. Sohliesolloh mtiosten die SterbenPwahrooheinlichkeiten qv NI^ nioht ganzzahlige y naoh Parabeln interpoliert werden, Wir habon jedech von die wen Dereohnungen Abstand ge- nommen, well die nach /20/ berechneten nur annahernd der Wirkliohkeit enteprechen. Um die Bereohnung von 140.4100y aus /12/, /13/, /14/ zu vereinfaohen, haben wir angenommen, class die Sterblichkeit der Gattinen im erten Jahre naoh der Hoohzeit - im Durchsohnitt handelt es sich nur um ein halbea Jahr praktisoh gleich Null sei, Weiter haben wir da s Produkt Calyox in /13/, welohes eine Ortisse der zweiten Ordnung ?der Kleinhelt darstellt, gleioh Null gesetzt. Ausserdem haben wir in /14/ dap letzte Glied vernaohldssigt. Dadurch voroinfaoht sich das Formelsystem /11/ bis /14/ ?wie folgt: ox NMI ???? nee 'I + /cc gy II Wx" viVix 41c ox 1511(4+ + 1k/cc py (s;',14 D; 14c1) ? M;ic+i iv py s p + wx" + rit, ) Zundchst haben wir die Werte von ?x und ?x nach /21/ und /22/ be- rechnet. Nachher haben wir Ox aus /24/ unter der Annahme berechnet, dass die Heiratswahrscheinlichkeiten der Geschigdenen diegleichen sind wie die der Witwer. Schliesslich haben wir noch p4 aus /23/ berechnet. Die so ermittelten Werte 4, 4, 0x sind in der Tabelle 3 gegeben. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: I - Rnn Innnsuln fl 2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 6, - 9 - Einjahrige Heiratewahreoheinliohkeiten der ledigen, verwitweten peohiedenen Winner unci cinjUhrige Eheeoheidungawahreoheinlioh- keiten der verheirateten Winner, bereohnet aue den Ergebnieeen der jugoolawieohen Volkazahlung vom 15,111.1948. n--.?eign???????????=0,???????? VIESHONOMON~M~BMNININSIIMINNIPOIMININOMME r............. Heiratewahreoheinliohkeiten der Gesohi,edenen Ehesoheidunge- wahreohepollioh- " k6iten i Alter -------- Ledigen Verwltweten x o 100 11 x 100 4 . ,i.co, ,p,* , loo bx 1 2 3 5. 15 0.66 16 1.60 17 3.40 18 5,32 19 7.11 20 8.65 8.32 0.00 0.23 21 9.91 17.24 4.47 0.23 22 10.92 22.52 9.16 0.23 23 11.71 25.39 11.95 0.22 24 12,31 26,31 13.50 0,21 25 12.75 26.17 14.26 0.21m 26 13.05 25.53 14.55 0.20 27 13.22 24.67 14.59 0.19 28 13.27 23.82 14.46 0.18 29 13.22 23.19 14.36 0.17 30 13.06 22.69 14.18 0.16 31 12.81 22.19 13.86 0.15 32 12.45 21.56 13.50 0.14 33 12.01 20.79 13.03 0.13 34 11.48 19.92 12.41 0,12 35 10.87 18.96 11.79 0.11 36 10.19 18.04 11,07 0.10 37 9.46 17.20 10.47 0.09 38 8.68 16.38 9.88 0.08 39 7.89 15.65 9.13 0.08 40 7.10 14.84 8.47 0.07 41 6.33 13.94 7.79 0.06 42 5.58 12.91 7.09 0.06 43 4.89 11.77 6.39 0.05 44 4.24 10.61 5.77 0.05 45 3.66 9.44 5.04 0.04 46 3.13 8.42 4.42 0.04 47 2.66 7.50 3.92 0.03 i18 2.24 6.77 3.41 0.03 49 1.86 6.22 3.03 0.02 50 1.52 5.76 2.52 0.0 51 1.20 5.39 2.26 0.02, 52 0.90 5.02, 1.86 0.01 Tabelle 3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R00130nosnnn9 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 I, ? w d Me. Oroseetitilyalie 1.44 land ubersichtehalber in der Figur 1 graphisch dargestellt. Trcom 11on Unzullthglichkeiten uneerer Rechnung zeigen die Kurvert von Wm pop. P:x den typiechen Verlauf der lieiratswahrecheinlichkgitcln der ledigen, verwitweten, geichiedenen BevOlkerung, wie die getratowahr- echeinlichkeiten, welch() einige Lander mit der klaseischen Methode, di. mit den Elementargesamtheiten der Eheachlieersenden Weller berechnet haben. EINSAHRIGX HEIRATSWAHRSCHEINLICHKEITEN DER 14E1)1MM, VERWITWETEN UND GESCHIEDENEN MANNER, 81REC1-LN'ET AUS DEN ERGEBN1SSEN DER JUGOSLAVISCHEN VOLKSZAHLUNG, VOM 15,111,1948. I ? 1, /TV, Ira?-, I WOW W. X =15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Ericm r 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ts, Der voratehend akizzierten neuen Method der Bereohnung dor Heirate- und Eheacheidungswahraoheinlichkeiten kommt unveren Erachtona nicht nur eine theoretiaohe aondern auoh eine praktiaohe Bedeutung In theoretiaoher Himicht erwahnen wir, class verechiodene demo- graphiaohe Maaaenersoheinungen duroh "KrUfte" eedautet und analytieoh auo- geglichen werden ktinnen, genau so und mit demaelben Erfolg wie Gompertz /1825/ und Makeham /1060/ die Sterblichkeit mit "foroo of mortality" ge- kUrb und analytiaoh ausgeglichen haben. Diose Art der Ausgleiohung kann die mathematische 2tatintik ftirdern. In praktiacher Hinsicht bemerken wir, da os auvIden Ergebnisaen je- der soliden VolkszUhlung Fertilitdts, Nuptiaiitato und Divortialitdts- tafein rasch und leicht konstruiert werden kdnnen, galls abgesehen davon, ob die Statistik der nattirlichen Bewegung der Bevoikerung funktioniert oder nicht. Die klassische Konetruktion von demographischen Tafein mittels Elementargesamtheiten ist bekanntlich sehr kostspielig und zeitraubend. Aus diesem Grunde haben bisher nur recht wenige Lander Fertilitate-, Nup- tialitUts- und Divortialitdtstafeln konstruiert. Mit der neuen Methode kann dieser Nachteil behoben werden, was da s Studium der demographinchen Vorgdnge in alien Landern fbrdern wird. CALNLATION OF MARRIAGE RATES FOR SINGLES, WIDOWED AND DIVORCED PERSONS AS WELL AS OF DIVORCE RATES FROU CENSUS STATISTICS Summary The author puts himself the task to calculate the marriage and divorce rates from the population structure by age and marital status. The formulas /4/ to /8/ do hold for the stationary population and the formulas /4*/ to /8*/ for the non-stationary one. The formulas /11/ to /14/ from which the marriage and divorce rates might be computed, have been deduced from /4*/ to /8*/ on the assumption that the mortality /9/ and the perturbation factors of the stationary status /10/ do not depend on marital status. The method is numerically examined by the male population structure of Yugoslavia obtained from the Population Census as of March 15, 1948 /Table 1/. The analytically graduated structure of the male population of Yugoslavia is presented in Table 2. The formulas /21/ to /24/ which served for computation of marriage and divorce rates and which are numerically exposed in table 3 and graphically in figure 1, have been obtained by simplification of the formulas /II/ to /14/. Finally, the author stresses the possibility of a rapid and easy construction of fertility, nuptiality and divorce tables from census statistics i.e, without recurring to vital ones, what might well promote the population studies of single countries. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-0104nRnn1 qnnnsznnrIn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 LE CALCUL DU TAUX DE MARIAGE FOUR LES CELIBATAIRES, VEINS ET DIVORCES AU5S1 BIT QUE DU TAUX DE DIVORTIALITE A PARTIR DES DONNEES,DE RECENSEMENT Rdaumd L'auteur a'est ohargd de prdeenter une solution du problbme du cal- call du taux de manage et de divortialito h partir de la structure de la population selon l'age et l'dtat matrimonial. Quant h la population stationnaire, les formules /4/ 4 /0/ seront h appliquer et cellem de /4*/ 4 /0*/ au cae d'une population non-station- naire. Les formules /II/ a, /14/ A l'aide desquelles on peut oalculer les taux aes mariages et des divorces sont deduites de /4*/_4 /8*/ sous l'hypo- those quo ni la mortalite /9/ ni les facteure perturbatburs de l'etat eta- tionnaire /10/ ne se trouvent on dependance de l'etat matrimonial. La method() etait examinee numeriquoment a l'aide de la structure de la population masculine de la Yougoslavie obtenue h la base du Recensement de la population du 15 mars 1948 /Tableau 1/. La structure de la population masculine de la Yougoslavie ajustee analytiquement se trouve au Tableau 2. Les formulem /21/ 5, /24/, h l'aide desquelles les taux de manage et de divortialite sont calcules et presents numeriquement au Tableau 3 et graphiquement au Figure 1, sont obtenues par la simplification des formules /II/ h /14/. A la fin, l'auteur souligne l'importance du fait que les tables de fecondite, de nuptialite et de divortialite peuvent'etre calculdes tres facilement h partir des donnees provenant des recensements de la popula- tion et sans recourir a cellos des statistiques de l'etat civil, co qui represente incontestablemont une faciiite assez considerable pour l'avance- ment des recherches demographiques des pays individuels. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? 4" ?4401 INTERNATIONELLA STATISTISKA 1NSTITUTET VINSTITUT INTERNATIONAL In STATISTIQUE THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 80 SESSION STOCKHOLM 04-15/0 IM DIE ORGANISATION DES STATISTISOH,Eq DIENSTE4 IN DEN EUROPAISCHEN GROSSTADTFy von Dr. BERNHARD MEWES Stadtrat in Braunschweig Die amtliche Statistik der Lander und Gemeinden ist em n Teil der staatlichen bzw. der regionalen Verwaltungsorganisation. Sic dient in erster Linie Zwecken der Regierung und Verwaltung und empfangt von diesen ihre Aufgaben. Die Organisation des statisti- schen Dienstes in den Grosstddten hdngt daher entscheidend von dem in den einzelnen Staaten herrschonden staatsrechtlichen Zustand, von dem VerhAlthis der regionalen Korperschaften zur staatlichen Gewalt und nicht zuletzt von der Stddteverfassung ab. Straffe staatliche Zentralverwaltung muss eine andere Organisation der Stddtestatistik zur Folge haben als Stddtefreiheit mit grosserer Selbstverwaltung. Auch die Grosse der Gemeinde kann eine Rolle spielen, da selbstdndige Amter in Stddten unterhalb der Gross- stadtgrenze selten siad. Die statistischen Amter sind entstanden aus dem Bedtrfnis der ? Stadtverwaltungen, sich tber Zahl, Struktur und Entwicklung der ,Bevolkerung zu unterrichten, Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Struktur der Stadt zu erhalten oder auch Unterlagen ftr steuerliche Massnahmen zu gewinnen. Ausserdem mussten die einmal beschlossenen und durchgefUhrten Massnahmen tberpraft werden. In ether Zeit sich stark entwickelnder Industrie und der damit zusammenhangenden Ballung der Menschen in den grossen Stddten war eine solche zahlen- mdssige Gesamtschau besonders notwendig. In den einzelnen Dienst- stellen der stddtischen Verwaltung war bereits vorher statisti- sches Material vorhanden. Es Lid Vim Laufe der Verwaltungstdtig- keit z.To ohne besondere Arbeit an und konnte Auskunft tber die Leistung der Dienststellen geben. Eine systematische Sammlung dieser statistischen Zahlen und ihre Auswertung nach einheitlichen methodischen Grundsatzen wurde aber er3t betrieben, als die sta, tistischen Amter in Funktion traten Ihnen wu'rden im Laufe der Jahre zwei grosse Aufgabengebiete tbertragen. Sie haben primdrstatistische Erhebungen ftr die Zen- tralstellen durchzufthren. Die ortlichen Ergebnisse derartiger Zdhlungen sind ftr die eigene Verwaltung auszuwerten. Sic haben aber auch das sekunddrstatistische Material, ?das in den Dienst- stellen der Verwaltung anfallt, zu sammeln und ftr Zwecke der Ver waltungsfthrung nutzbar zu machen. Diese letzte Aufgabe ist.als Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Ap?roved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? ? besonders wichtig anzusehen, war ale doch der Anlass zur Errichtung der stAdtestatistischen Amter, verschaffte ihnen im Rahmen der ge- samten amtlichen Statistik die SelbstAndigkeit und prdgte ihnen ein eigenes Gesicht. Die zentrale StatiLtik 10nt? zwar einen grossen Zensus mit Hilfe eines eigenen daftir aufgebauten Verwaltungsappa- rates durohfUhren. Es wird ihr aber trotz der modernen Hilfsmittel nicht mdglich sein, "eine so gonaue und vollstandige Beschreibung der grosstddtischen ZustUnde und VorgLinge mit den fUr die stddti- sche Verwaltung erforderlichen,bis in Einzolheiten reich geglie- der , ten Unterlagen zu liefernvv. We weit diose beiden Aufgaben- gebiete fUr die Arbeit der modernen Stddtestatistik massgebend Ond, sol]. im Laufe der folgenden Unterbuchung'dargestellt werden. , Nachdem,zu Beginn des 19. Jahrhunderts verschiedene Staaten statistische Amter gegrUndet hatten, folgten einige Grosstadte in der zweiten Hdlfte des Jahrhunderts. Im Jahre 1862 errichteten derartige Amter Berlin, Wien und Rom, 1865 Frankfurt a.M.p 1866 Hamburg p New York und Riga, 1867 Leipzig, 1868 Stockholm, 1869 Bu- dapest, 1871 Altona und LUbeck, 1873 Breslau und Chemnitz, 1874 Dresden, 1875 MUnchen, 1879 Paris und 1883 Kopenhagen, um die ersten Anfdnge der stddtestatistischen Amter zu nennen. Damit beginnt keineswegs erst die statistische Bestdtigung der StAdte. Sogenannte Vo1ksza4ungen der Stadte reichen bis ins 14. und 15. Jahrhundert zurUck.4 Atm der Stadt Florenz liegen Volkszdhlungs- ergebnisse fUr das Jahr 1380 var.) aus Treviso fUr 1384 und 1396, aus Padua fUr 1411 und 1420. In Ypern fanden Volkszdhlungen in den Jahren 1412, 1431, 1437, 1491 und 1506 stattp in Freiburg im lj,chtland 1444, in Nordlingen 14592. in NUrnberg 1449, in Strassburg 1473/77. Damit soil keine erschOpferide Darstellung gegeben wer- den, es sal nur an einigen Beispielen auf die Anfdnge der Stddte- statistik un,d der stddtestatistischen Amter hingewiesen werden. Dartber hinaus lagen in den Stddten Listen Uber die Wehrfdhigen, die Steuerpflichtigen, die Feuerstellenp die Bodenverhdltnisse, sowie BUrger-, Handwerker-, Zunftlisten und dgl0 vor, die noch nicht statistische Arbeiten in unserem Sinne darstellen. Auf weitere Einzelheiten kann hier jedoch nicht eingegangen werden, es saute in diesem Zusammenhang nur die Stellung der Stadte- statistik innerhalb der gesamten Statistik und in der histori- schen Entwicklung gekennzeichnet werden. Daraus eehellen gleich- zeitig Notwendigkeit und bis zu einem gewissen Grade Bedeutung der stadtestatistischen Arbeit. mm Laufe des Beatehens dieser Einrichtungen haben siCh'Auf- gabenkreis und Organisation gewandelt, je nach den Aufgaben, die die Stadtverwaltungen Ubernehmen mussten, 'und nach der Stellung, die ,ihnen die staatlichen Organe Ubertragen haben. Urn den neusten Stand. darstellen zu konnen, hat das Internationale Statistische Institut eine Rundfrage zu Beginn des Jahres 1957 in den eurepa- ischen Ldndern veranstaltet. Dam bestand umso mehr Veranlassungp als im Institut ein Ausschuss fUr Grosstadtstwtistik gebildet ist und'von ihm das Internationale Jahrbuch der Grosstddte herauSgegeben wird. Ausserdem ist eine Sektion ?Stadtestatistik57 gebildet warden, die erstmalig auf dem 30. Internationalen Kongress in Stockholm zu- 1 Vgl.? Wilhelm Mprgenroth, viStddtische Statistische Xmterq, mm Handworterbuch der Staatswissenschafteny 70 Band 4. Aufl. Zena 1926, S. 945 ff. 2 . VgL Richard Korherr, flGeschichte der Stadtestatistik", in Die deutsche, Kommunalstatistik, Stuttgart und Berlin 1938, 3.36 ff. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Apiroved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 A ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R00130008000273 ' SO 04 1,01 sammentritt. Es war daher notwendig, einen herblick fiber die Organisation de a stddtestatiattAhen Dinte u erhalten, der fiir den Erfahrungsaustausch zwischen den Ldndern wiohtig it und ftr do Auswertung der Zahlenangaben aus den einzelnen Land6rn yon Bedeutung sein kann Die FrageboGen sind von 20 europaischen Ldndern beantwortet worden. Es fehlen die AngOen von Belgien, Humdnim, UdSSR und der Tarkei sowie evtl. von Agypten, wenn die Ldnder berticksichtigt werden sollen, die am Internationalen Jahrbuch der Grosstddte mit- arbeiten. Die vorliegenden Antworten geben bereits omen tso gut herblick, dass eine Darstellung lohnend und interessant ?ist und den genannten Zweck erreicht. Als Kriterium ttr das Vorhandensein eines statistischen Amtes wurde es angesehen, wenn die statistischen Arbeiten aus dem Bereich der einzelnen Fachdienststellen herausgelost und in einer zentralen Dienststelle, der die Bearbeitung sdmtlicher statistischen Angele- genheiten der Verwaltung obliegt, zusammengefasst Bind. Nur im Falle einer Zentralisation der Statistik klann von einem statisti- schen Amt gesprochen werden. Es kam also darauf an zu erfahren, ob in den Grosstadten noch die frahere'Form der unausgelbsten, de- zentralisierten Statistik GUltiEkeit hat oder ob besondere stati- stische Dienststellen bestehen. Aus dem Aufgabenbereich dr statistischen Amter konnten nur wenige Angaben erfragt werden. Wesentlich 1st PAr die Organisation des Amtes, ob statistische Erhpbungen laufender oder einmaliger Art, wie etwa eine Volkszdhlung, im'Auftrage der statistischen Zentral- stellen durchgefahrt werden. Dabei wird es sich meist um das Ver- teilen und Einsammeln der Zahlpapiere handeln sowie um die Prtifung auf Vollzdhligkeit der Papiere und Vollpttindigkeit der Antworten. SchUesslich iat nicht unwichtig'ffir 1b Arbeit des statistischen Amtes, ob es die Auswertung der Ortlihen Ergebnisse di,eser'zen- tralen Erhebungen'vornimmt. Dies sett bereits eine gewisse Selb- stdndigkeit des regionalon Amtes voraus und eine gefestigte,Stellung innerhalb der"Ortlichen Verwaltungsorganisation. In der gleichen Richtung lduft die Frage, ob die, grosstadti- schen Amter statistische Erhebungen far eigene Zweake durchriihren, ob se, ferner von der eigenen Verwaltung mit besonderen Untersuch- ungen und Gutachten beauftragt'sind. Dies mixdo ,eine gute Organi- sation des Amtes voraussetzen, vor allem einen Amtsleiter, der ilber methodische Kenntnisse der Statistik und praktische Erfahrung in der Auswertung statistischer Zahlen und in der Verwaltungstatig- keit verfUgt. Aus diesem Grunde wurde auch dia?Frage?aUfgenommen, ob der Leiter des Amtes eine wipsenschaftliche akademische Ausbild- ung besitzt. Diese Frage wird nicht immer einheitlich beantWortet sein, well die Ausbildung auf den Hochschulen in den einzelnen Landern ver8chiedenartig ist. In Deutschland wird Zo Bo Wert gelegt auf eiae abp:schlossene Hochschulbildung mit dem Diplom-Examen, evtl. der Doktcx-Promotion. Das 1st aber nicht in,allen Landern der Fall. In Italien wird gesetzlich sin besonderer Fahigkeits- nachweis verlangt, der nicht unbedingt der,Hoehschulausbildung in . anderen Landern zu entsprechen braucht. Dies muss also bei Ver- gleichen beachtet werden. Es kam in der vorliegenden Untersuchung nicht darauf an, die Vorbildung der Amtsleiter zu analysieren, son- dern ein weiteres Xriterium far die Organisation der Stadtestatistik Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 A ? gewinnen. Z,claqiesslich wurde als Anhaltspunkt fir eine intensive Arm bsit der Amter das Verdffentlichungswesen angesehen. So wurde nicht nur die Herausgabe laufender Monate-, Vierteljahres- und jahresberichte erfragt, sondern auch die Publikation von Sander- iantersuchungen, die auf eine besonders intensive wissenechaft- liche Arbeit des Amtes schliessen lasst. Dadurch wird das Zahlenmaterial mit einer wissenschaftlichen Auswertung nicht nur der eigenen Verwaltung zugangig gemacht, sondern auch einer, breiteren Offentlichkeit, vor allem anderen statistischen Amtern, wie Uberhaupt der Wissenschaft, Ubergeben. In den letzteren Fallen witrde es sich also um em n besonders gut brganisiertes und iausgebautes Amt handeln. Damit hat sich. die Fragestellung in der Rundfrage des In-' rnationalen Statistischen Instituts erschopft. Weitere Fragen ptwa nach der Art der wissens,phaftlichen Vorbildung des Amts- loiters, nach der Zahl der wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter und des sonstigen Personals, nach dem Vorhandensein technischer Rilfsmittel oder einer BUcherei, nach der Ubertragung anderer Verwaltungsarbeiten auf das statistische Amt sind nicht gestellt Worden, um die Rundfrage nicht zu umfangreich zu gestalten und damit die Beantwortung.und die Auswertung zu erschweren. So ist hur em n erster grober tberlick Uber die Organisation des stadtem statistischen Dienstes maglich. Es wurden auch nur die Verhalt- nisse in den Grosstadten bertIcksichtigt, um die Antworten nicht zu komplizieren. Erfahrungsgemass,besteht in den kleineren Stadten nicht so sehr die Neigung, statistische,Arbeiten in piner boson- aeren Diensstella zu konzentrieren, wenn auch die Grosstadtgrenze yon 100.000 Einwohnern fur die SchaffUng eines statistischen Amtes nicht Uberall massgebend ist. Urn omen mOglichst volistandigen Uberblick geben zu konnen, wir4 im folgenden auf jedes einzelne Land eingegangen und die dort vorandene Organisation, dargestellt. Dabei sei wegen der Verhalt- nisse in, frUheren Jahren auf die bereits zitierte Untersuchung von Morgenroth verwiesen, ,die, einen Anhaltspunkt fUr die Veranderung in den letzten 30 Jahren geben kann. Den Geglogenheiten des Inter- nationalen Statistischen Instituts entsprechend soil die Beschreibung er Lader in der alphabetischen Reihenfolge nach der franzdsischen ,chreibwaise erfolgen, zumal in der gleichen Weise in den Verofent- iichungen des Internationalen Statistischen Instituts, insbesondere im Internationalen Jahrbuch der Grosstadte, verfahren wird. DEUTSCHLAND3 In den 54 Grosstddten sind statistische Amter eingerichtet Worden. Mit Ausnahme von 6 Stadten sind sie selbstandige Dienst- stollen, in denen die statistischelrbeit der Verwaltung zentra- Ausfarlich behandelt in Bernhard Mewes, "Die Kommunalstatistikil, in Handbuch der kommunalen Wissenschaft und Praxis, 'Bd. I, Berlin, Heidelberg, Gottingen 1956, S. 612, . Vgl?, auch vom gleichen Ver- fasser, Stadtestatistik$1, im HandwOrterbuch der Sozialwissenr ischaften, 15. Lieferung, Stuttgart, TUbingen Gottingen 1957, S.63. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized CopyARproved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 lisiert Jet, Gew6hn1;,t1 it ihnen coach die Aufsicht (Aber die Ge7 schaftsstatistiken der 'obrigen Fachdienststellen ftertragen. In den 6 Ausnahmeillien handelt es sich zwar um zentralisierte Sta- tistik, aber um unselbstAndige Stellen, die mit anderen Dienst- stellen zusammengefaset sind. Ste haben sdmtliche Auftragssta- tistiken des Statistisehen Bundesamtcs bzw. der Statistischen Lari- desdmter, soweit sie gesetzlich libortragen werden, ftir den 6rt- , lichen Bereioh durchzufthren. Bei den grossen Zdhlungen, also dem Zensus, erhalten sie ftir diese Arbeiten einen Zuschuss zu den ent!- standenen Kasten fUr die eigentliche Erhebung und die UberprUfung der Zdhlpapiere. Sofern bei laufenden statistische n Ermittlungeh die Ergebnisse bereits bei den stddtestatistischen Amtern anfallen bzw, zusammengestellt werden, besitzen die Stddte die Ergebnissei fUr ihre Vorwaltungsarbeiten. Bei dem Zensus oder ether grossen Wohnungszahlung werden den Stddten die Ergebnisse ftir den ortlichen Bereich von don Zentralstellen geliefert, so dass die stAdtesta- tistischen kilter die Auswertung ilbernehmen. Dazu kommen die zahl- reichen Auftrage der eigenen Verwaltung, die erst eigentlich zur. Zentralisation der Statistik in besonderen Amtern geftthrt haben Eigene statistiSche Erhebungen sind nur verhaltnismdssig selten, da meist die zentralen Erhebungen fUr die ortlichen Zwecke ausge- wertet werden. Ausserdem sind die Amter mit der Sammlung und Aus-. wertung des in der Verwaltung anfallenden und sonstigen fUr die Verwaltung wichtigen statistischen Zahlenmaterials sowie mit der Anfertigung von Denkschriften und Gutachten beauftragtp die kom- munalpolitische Massnahmen vorbereiten und die durchgefuhrten Mass- nahmen beobachten und qberpritfen sollen. Um diese Arbeiten mit &;r erforderlichen Sachkenntnis ausfuhren zu konnen, sind die leitenden Stellen mit akademisch vorgebildeten Statistikern besetzt, in dell moisten Fallen handelt es sich um Nationalokonomen. Von akademisch ausgebildeten Wissenschaftlern werden 40 statistische Amter gelei- tet. Mit Ausnahme von zwei Grosstadten werden in den arigen statistische Publikationen herausgegeben, und zwar in 24 Fallen Monatsberichtep in 20 Fallen Vierteljahresberichte. In 27 Gross- stadten werden Statistische Jahrb'acher publiziert und in 28 StAdten die Ergebnisse statistischer Untersuchungen in Sondervertiffent- ' lichungen herausgebracht. Die Bearbeitung.des Verwaltungsberichts ist in 15 Grosstadten den statistischen Amtern flbertragen, sie enthalten ebenfalls umfangreiches Zahlenmaterial qber die Verwalxngs- tatigkeit. Erganzend sei bemerktp dass in weiteren 17 Stadten klei- nerer Grossenordnung ebenfalls selbstandige statistische Amter be- stehen, von denen 6 einem akademisch vorgebildeten Leiter unter- stehen. Im Statistischen Jahrbuch Deutscher Gemeinden werden fUr 517 Stadte tiber 10.000 Einwohner vrgleichbare Einzelangaben fflr fast samtliche Vorwaltungsgebiete zusammengestellt. Die Zahlen sind ausserdem ftir die Grossengruppen und ft& die Lander zusammen- gefasst. Bisher liegeu 44 Jahrgange vor, die vom Deutschen StAdte- tag herausgegeben und vom Verband Deutscher Stadtestatistiker be- arbeitet werden. In Mittel- und Ostdeutschland bestanden vor dem Kriege 1939 7 statistische Amter unter akademischer Leitung, die auf eine alte Tradition zurUckblicken konnen, und 7 statistische Stellen in klei- neren Stadten. So besteht das Leipziger Amt seit 1867, das von Breslau und Chemnitz seit 1873, das von Dresden seit 1874, von Plauen seit 1876, von Gorlitz seit 1878, von Magdeburg seit 1885 sowie von Konigsberg seit 1893. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A?proved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 V I! Nach dem Kriege waren. nUr noch in Halle, Magdeburg, Leipzig und Erfurt statistlsche Amter vorhanden. Durch Verordrung Uber die-Reorganisation des statistischen Dienstes in der sowjetl,schen Zone vom 16. Februar 1950 wurden die kommunalatatiatischen Amter zu'Kreisstellen, die bisherigen Statistischen Landeamter zu Be- zirksstellen der Staatlichen Zentralverwaltung LUr Statistik. Si? sind ausschlieselich cirun W6luungen unterworfun, werden Li- nanzipll von der Zentralstelle betreut, die auch die Leiter der Amter anstellt bzw.,entldsst. Eigene statistisdhe Arbeiten wprden von ihnen also nicht ftir den Ortlichen Beroich durchgefUhrt, eben- so wie sie keine statistischen Voroffentlichungen herausgeben. Erstmalig lag Anfang 1957 em n statistischer Vierteljahresbericht von Leipzig vor, der aber nur wenige Verhdltnisziffern enthdlt. 2. OSTERREICH In Osterreich,arbeiten 15 Grosstddte am Intornationalen Statistischen Jahrbuch mit Graz, 'Innsbruck, Linz, Salzburg und Wien. In ihnen sind selbstdndige statistische Amter vorhanden, die in 0:ler,,gleichen Weise organisiert sind und arbeiten wie die deut?chen'Amter. , In Linz und Wien sind Akademiker mit der Leitung der Amter betraut. Sie geben statist'l.sche Veroffentlichungen her- aus. Die, zusammenfassende Veroffentlichungber die wichtigsten ,Sachgebiete in 45 Stddten erfolgtim uStatistischen Jahrbuch Oster- .reichischer Stddtea, das bisher in 6 Ausgaben orschien und vom .0st,erreichischen Statistischen Zentralamt zusammengestellt. wird.. 2. BULGAAIEL1 Die Statistic ist, in den Grosstddten ? in dor gleichen Weise zentralisiert, wie sic, fir das Land im Statistischen Zentralamt zu- sammengefasst ist. Die regionalen statistischen Amter sind diesem unterstellt, sic haben die statistischen Auftrdge (Zahlungen) in seinem Auftrage durchzufUhren, werten'aber weder die Ergebnisse der zentralstatistischen Erhebungen aus, noch bearbeiten sic eigene Zdhlungen oder Gutachten udgln, noch geben sic Veroffentlichun en ? heraus0 werden,jedoch von akademisch ausgebildeten Fachkr ften geleiteti' In der Zeit nach dem ersten Weltkrieg waren in Bulgarien keine stddtestatistischen Amter verhandeh. '? 40 DANEMARK ? Kopenhagen und Aarhus habenistatistische limber, in denen die statistischen Arbeiten der Kommunalverwaltung zentralisiert sind. Einige Dienststellen, vor allem die technischen, sammeln und werten ihre eigenen Geschaftsstatistiken, meist in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Statistischen Amt, aus. Es ist beauftragt mit der Durchfqhrung des Zensus udg ftir den ortlichen Bereich und wertet dessen Ergebnisse ?aus. Die Amter ftihren auch eigene Ermittlungen durch, vor allem auf dem Gebiet der Bevolkerungsatatistik, der. Wohnungsstatistik und der 4 Vergl. Hans -Heidenwag, 011ederaufbap. 'der Osterreichischen,Stadte- statistikvi, in Aligemeines Statistisches Archly., 34. Bd. 150, S0,176 ff. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 IMI Steuerstatistik sowie auf besonderen kommunalen Sachgebieten und fertigen,Gutachten und Denkschriften fUr. die Verwaltung an. 'Sie sind 1114,t lakademisch ausgebildeten Leitern besetzt und geben sta- tistisehe Veroffentliehungen herausz Kopenhagen Nbnatsberichte, Jahrbilcher, einen Kommunalkalender und Einzelverdffentlichungen, Aarhus Vierteljahresberichtes Jahrblicher und Sonderveroffentlichung- en. I I SPANIEN In den Grosstddten sind eigene statistische Amter eingerich- tet worden. Von den 22 Grosstddten werden insbesondere Madrid, Barcelona, Valenzia, Bilbao, Saragossa usw. genannt. Sie fuhren die grossen Zdhlungen durch, werten aber die Ergebnisse fUr rtliche Zwecke nicht aus. Alle 5 Jahre veranstalten sic eine stddt. Zdhlung, ferner verschiedene Erhebungen fUr die Kommunalverwaltung, vor allem Ober die Leb'ensmittelversorgung und as Verkehrswesen. Ausserdem ' sind sic mit Gutachten und Denkschriften fUr die Verwaltung beauf- tragt. In Barcelona und Saragossa werden die, Amter von Akademikern geleitet. HEonatsberichte:geben Palma de Mallorca, Madrid und Barce- lona heraub, Vi.erteljahresberichte Barcelona, Bilbao und Burgos. 6. FINNLAND In Helsinki, Tampere und Turku gibt es statistische Amter, sic fUhren zentrale Erhebungen im allgemeinen nicht du'rch.;-Mit'Ausnahme des Zensus 1950, werten aber auch deren Ergebnisse nicht aus. Das wird durch das Stati,.stisphe,Zentralamt bewerkstelligt. Helsinki hat jedoch tiber das al1emein Tabellenprogramm hinaus Sonderauszdhlungen fUr das StAdtgebiet vergenommen. Die Statistischen Amter'qbernehmen eigene statistische Arbeiten, so hat Helsinki eine Reprdsentativ- statistik ilber die Wohnverhdltnisse und tibqr die Freizeitgestaltung der4ugend durchgefUhrt. Die Leitung der Amter liegt in den Hdnden von,akademisch ausgebildeten Statistikern. Sie geben statistische Veraffentlichungen herausgl4onatsberichte in Helsinki und Jahrbticher in Helsinki, Tampere und Turku, ausserdem veroffentlicht Helsinki einen KoMmunalka,lender. L...ERANIELE Von den 24 franzosischen GrosstUdten sind in Paris (Bureau de Statistique, de la Pr6fecture de la Seine) und StrabtbUrg die sta- tistischen Arbeiten in besonderen Amtern zentralisiert, in ap.Etienne und Reims in Gesundheitsamt die BevOlkerungs- und Gesundheitssta- tistik. Diese Amter und in den Stddten, in denen keine zentralen Amter bestehen, die stAdt. Dienststellen besorgen bei VolkszAhlungen das Einsammeln und Abliefern der Zdhlpapiere an das Nationale Sta- tistische Institut. Ausserdem sichern sie die latfehde Eatellung der verschiedenen Nachweise fUr die Statistik der Bevolkerungsbewe- gunge Diese Unterlagen werden im Nationalen Statistischen Institut bearbeitet und ausgewertet. Dip Statistischen Amter von Paris, Strassburg 'und St. Etienne fUhren auch eigene statistische Erhebungen durch und fertigen ebenso wie die von Nizza und Reims eigene sta- tistische Untersu6hungen und Gutachten fUr die Kommunalverwaitung an. Nur in Paris hat die Leitung em n akademisch ausgebildeter 5th- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 - Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Or 8 ?? tistiker. Paris, Strassburg und St. Etienne geben eigene sta- tistische Verdffentlichungen heraus4 Paris Monataberichte und lahr1. Einzeluntersuchungen, Strassburg alle 10 Jahr? omen Ver.- matungsbericht, jahrl. em n Statistisehes Jahrbuch, sowie lauf end Untersuchungen Uber Preis? und Ldhne aowie ander? Untersuchungen in grdSseren Abstanden. In St. Etienne und Reims werden monat- liche Berichte des Gesundheitsamtes, sowie jahrl. Tatigkeitsbe- richte des Gesundheitsamtes verdffentlicht. Auch von anderen Stddton wie Lyon, Toulouse, Bordeaux p Nantes, Lille, Rennes, Grenoble, Dijon werden von Fall zu Fall Berichte mit stAtisti- schen Angaben angefertigt, moist handelt es sich um Bedlke- rungs- und Gesundheitsstatistiken. 8. GRIECHENLAND Die Hauptstadt Athen besitzt ein eigenes statistisches Amt. Da die beiden anderen Grosstadte Piraus und Saloniki nicht ge- nannt werden, muss angenommen werden, dass hier die statistischen Arbeiten nicht in einem besonderen Amt zentralisiert sind. Das Athener Statistische Amt ftihrt jedoch weder zentral angeordnete Erhebungen noch eigene Zdhlungen far die Verwaltung durch, noch wird es von einem Akademiker geleitet, noch gibt es Verdffent- lichungen heraus. Es scheint sich daher nicht um ein besonders ausgebautes Amt zu handeln. I 6.1 UNGARN FUr jeden Verwaltungsbezirk gibt es eine dem Statistischen Zentralamt unterstehende Statistische Direktion; davon befinden .0.ch 19 an den Hauptplgtzen der Verwaltungsbezirke und,2 in den Stadten die den Status eines Verwaltungsbezirks'haben, die abei- leider nicht genannt sinC Sic fUhren zentrale Erhebungen durch und wertenisie fUr regionale Zwec4e aUs, sie kdnnen aber auch eigene Erhebungen durchfUhren, es handelt sichum Industrie-0 Binnenhandel- und Gesundheitsstatistiken. Budapest hat 1955 emn statistisches Handbuch herauSgegeben. Es 1st beabsichtigt, dass die einzelnen Statistischen Direktionen ab 1957 Jahrbilcher ver- offentlichen. Vor dem zweiten Weltkriege war em n Statistisches Amt in Budapest vorhanden, das durch seine zahlreichen guten Ver- offentlichungen bekannt war. NI 144 a.. 10. IRLAND In der Hauptstadt Dublin 1st kein statistisches Amt vor- handen. 11. 'ITALIEN Durch Gesetz vom 16.11.1939 1st fur die italienischen.Gross- stgdte 'fiber 100.000 Einwohner die Einrichtung eines stgdtischen statistischen Miro vorgeschrieben. Sb e fiihren zwar zentral ange- ordnete Zahlungen durc.n, wertenaber die Ergebnisse nicht Dlr. eigene Zwecke der Stadte aus. Sie konnen eigene statistische Er- hebungen veranstaltenp bedUrfen dazu aber der Genehmigung des Sta. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 / 1 ? II? _ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 tistisehan Zentra1in4titut3. Die offiziellen Verbffentlichungen goben im allgemeinen die ?Ergebnisse der statietischen Erhebungen wieder. PU'r die Anteleiter ist nachdem Gesetz vom 24.3.1930 eine Spezialausbildung'erforderlieh. Von den 28 Grosstddten geben 20 statistieche Monataberichtep ?Ferrara Vierteljahresberichte heraus. 15 Stddte verbffentlichen Statistische Jahrbticherp wenn such nicht in alien Jahreniaie Mailand 1939 und Modena 1949. Florenz hat auseerdem eine besondere Monographie herausgebracht. NORWEGEN 'Statistische Amtor sind in Oslo und Bergen errichtet. Sie fUhren Erhebungen ftir das Norwegische Statistische Zentralamt durchp werten teilweise die Ergebnisse ortliche Zwecke aus. Als eige- ne Erhebungen sind Krankenhausstatistik, Schulstatistikp Wohnungs- statistik, Verkehrsstatistik genannt. Auch werden sie mit .Gutach- ten fttr die Verwaltung beauftragt und werden von wissenschaftlich ausgebildoten Statistikern geleitet. Neben Monatsberichten, Vier- teljahresberichten und Jahrbi1chern ist von Oslo eine Nile von Einzelschriften verzeichnet. Bergen gibt nur Vierteljahresberichte und em n Jahrbuch herausp Seltener SonderverOffentlichungen. 13. NIEDERLANDE Von den Grosstddten haben nur Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Haag, Utrecht, Eindhoven und Tilburg em n eigentliches statistisches Apt, 'von denen Amsterdam und Haag den grossten Wirkungskreis haben. 'Ihre Selbstandigkeit 1st verschieden. In Utrecht und Eindhoven sInd. ihnen auch andere als rein statistische Angelegenheiten tiber- traien. Daneben gibt es in Arnheimp Nimwegen, Enschede, Almelo, Hilversum, Maastricht, Zaandam sogenannte Soziographische Amter, 'moist als Dienststellen der Stddtischen Bauamter, bisweilen als Tell der Gemoindekanzlei. Sic sind verschieden in Grosse und Bedeutung .und beschdftigen sich neben der Statistik mit der Stadtplanung. stddt. statistischen Amter fUhren teilweise zentral angeordnete hebungen. durch und bearbeiten moist ftir die Stadtviertel die Ergp nisse zehtraler Erhebungen. Die kleineren'statistischen oder die soziographischen Amter machen diose Auswert,ungen nicht. Eigene statistische Erhebungen werden in den grosseren Stadten durchge- fUhrt, z.B0 die von Haushaltsrechnungenp in Amsterdam zuletzt eine Stichprobenerhebung tber den Theater- und Konzertbesuch sowie ttber die StudentenunterkUnfte. Ebenso werden Gutachten Air die Ver- waltungen angefertigt. In Amsterdam, Utrecht und Eindhoven sind, . die L4ter wissenschaftlich ausgebildet, den kleineren soziografi- schen .Amtern 1st moist em n Akademiker, der Sozigrafie studierte, ivorgesetzt.' meisten Xmter geben Publikationen heraus, und 'zwar Monatsberichte. Vierteljahresberichtep Jahrbticher, Taschenbttcher. Einmalige Sondervertiffentlichungen werden nur in Amsterdam heraus- gebracht, in deren NStatistischon Matteilungenu seit 1894 137 Hefte erschienen sind. 24!L POLEN In den Grosstadten sind die statistischen Dienststellen inner- halb der Ortlichen Verwaltungen unabhangige Abteilungen0 Aufgaben Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 4 und Arbeitsplan warden vom Statistischen Zentralamt im Einverstand- nip mit den Nationalrdten ausgearbeitet Das Zentralamt hat ferner dip Aufgabe, di o Ortlichen Dienststellen z4 instruieren land zu kon- tr011ieren. Die Leiter der statistiechen Amter werden vom Zentral- atilt ausgewnhit, infolge der in der letgten Zeit eingefahrten De- zeptralisierulig der Wirtschaftsverwaltung,und im Zuge des Anwach- sens der Aufgaben cler Nationalrate n4.mmt.aucti der Aufgabenbereich der statistischen Amter zu, was zu einer Personalvermehrung Pahrt. Bei der AusfUrung der Aufgaben sind die Belange des Zentralamts neon denen der Ortlichen Nationalrdte zu beachtpn. Die stadte- statistischen Amter beteiligen sich daher auch aktiv an den all- geOeinen Zahlungen, darUber hinaus konnen sic Ortliche Erhebungen d4tchftihren, bedUrfen dazu jedoch grundslitzlich. der Zustimmung dea Zentralamts. ' 15. PORTUGAL In Lissabon und Porto sind die statistischen Arbeiten nicht in einem besonderen Amt zentralisiert. Sie werden, in den einzelnen statistischen Dienststellen der Verwaltung'durchgefUhrt. Es gibt auch keine statisti,schen Veroffentlichungen. Die Dienststellen liefern jedoch statistische Tabellen far den stkitischen Verwaltungs- bericht. 11 1 1 1 111 1 1 11 1 1 11 1111 16, GROSSBRITIEN Mit Ausnahme von Birmingham, wo em n besonderes Statisisches Amt eingerichtet 1st, sind in den Ubrigen Grosstadten die statisti- schen Arbeiten nicht zentralisiert. Die kommunalen Fachdienst- stollen befassen sich rn1 routinemassigen Untersuchungen far Ver- waltungszwecke. Einige Amter, wie z.B. die Gesundheits4mter, fUhren gelegentlich ortlich begrenzte Erhebungen mittels Inter- viewer durch, um Angaben aber die Lebensbedingungen bestimmter Bevolkerungsgruppen zu erhalten. Von den zentralen Regierungs- stellen werden bei den ortlichen Gemeindeverwaltungen zahlreiche Statistiken angefordert. Nur wenige Stadte bringen statistische Veroffentlichungen heraus. Gewohnlich enthalten die jdhrlichen Verwaltungsberichte auch statistische Angaben. Ein Statistisches Jahrbuch veroffentlicht Birmingham. 12.1.....?.211EPEE In Stockholm und Goteborg bestehen selbstAndige statistische At4er, die allerdings nicht mit zentralen Erhebungen beauftragt sind, auch keine regionale Auswertung dieses Materials yornehmen. Sie fthren aber eigene Erhebungen durch, fertigen Denkschriften und Gutachten an und werden von wissenschaftlichen FachkrAften ge- leitet. Stockholm gibt wochentlich6 Berichte, Monatsberichte, Jahr- bacher heraus und hat eine grosse Zahl von Sonderuntersuchungen sta- tistischer Art verOffentlicht. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 3; I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Bern und ZUrich 4ben kommunale statistisohe :After, Basel und Genf dagegon kantonale Amter. In Lausanne bosteht kein Statisti- sehes Amt, di Statistlk it dort noeh dozontralisiort. Die gem nannton'Statistischon Amter ftihron zentrale Erhebungen duroh und werton das,Material fill, die Ortlichen Stollen aus. Sie voranstalten auch Ortliche Erhebungen, fertigen Denkschrifton und Gutachten far die eigene Verwaltung an. Mit Ausnahme von ?Genf sind die leitenden Stollen mit wissenschaftlich ausgebildeton Statistikern besetzt Sio geben mit Ausnahmo von Genf statistische Publikationen herausp und zwar monatlicho Pressemitteilungen, Vierteljahresberichte sowie Jahrbticher) ausserdem auch Einzeluntersuchungen in grOsserem Um- fango. Die Zusammenfassung der Zahlen von 24 Stddten lber die ver- schiodenen Sachgebiete erfolgt im ?Statistischen Jahrbuch des Schweizerischen Stddtoverbandee, das 1955 in der 23 Ausgabe vorlag. 19. TSCHECHOSLOWAKEI Der statistischo Dienst ist in den einzelnen stddtischen Dienststellen dezentralisiert. Nur Prag ist eine Ausnahme, seine statistischen Arbeiten sind teilweise in der regionalen Abteilung des Statistischen Amtes dor Tschechoslowakei zentralisiert, und zwar so welt Prag als Hauptstadt in Frage kommt. In Zukunft sind. VerbesSerungen hinsichtlich der Organisation der Stddtestatistik beabsichtigt. Danach sollen die besenderen ortlichen Statistiken von den einzelnen Abteilungen der Comites Nationaux MUnicipaux er- stellt werden, es handelt si,n vex' allem um Wohnungs- und VerkOrs- statistiken. Die Leitung in laethodischer Hinsicht soil beim Sta- tistischen Zentralamt liegen, das,gleichzeitig die Herausgabe vpa- tistischer ,Veroffentlichungen, die einige ausgewahlte Stadte bek- treffen, vornimmt. Vach dem 1. Weltkxieg waren in Prag, Brann Und Pilsen ,statistische Amter vorhanden. 20. JUGOSLAWIEN In den 5 Grosstddten sind die statistischen Arbeiten in be- sonderen statistischen Amtern zentralisiert, die die zentral ange- ordneten Zdhlungen durchfuhren und far regionale Zwecke auswerten. Eigene Erhebungen sind nur mit Genehmigung des Statistischen Zen- tralamts moglich. In 3elgrad und Agram obliegt die Leitung akade- misch ausgebildeten Personen. Monatsberichte veroffentlicht Skoplje, Vierteljahresberichte Belgrad und Sarajewop Jahrbacher sind in ,Belgrad und Agram in Vorbereitung. Als Ergebnis dieser Darstellung der Organisation in den ver- schiedenen europdischen Ldndern soil eine Gruppierung der ypen der stadtestatistlschen Anther versucht werden. Dabei gibt es tbergdnge, , so class eine klare Abgrenzung der einzelnen Gruppen voneinander nur schwer,moglich ist. Je nach dem Grad der Konzentration der sta- tistischen Arbeiten in einem besonderen Amt sind 3 Gruppen von L4n- dern zu unterscheiden) wobei von dem augenblicklichen Stand ausge- bbjk Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 poi Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 12- gangen wird I. 'Die 'Vete Gruppe bildet die Lander, in deneh es keine oder Mar wenip stati3Oische Amt.ergibt,,In denen die Statistik nicht zentmlisiert, .sondermunausgelt;st bei den einzelnen Fach- diensstellen der Verwaltung bearbeitet Wird), wie es in zamtlictien Landern vor der Grunclung der statiitisahen.:Amter lablich war. Hier 'ist Grossbritahnien mit Ausnahme von. Birmingham zu nennen, Frapk- retch mit Ausnahme von Paris und Stratsburg,Portugal und die Tschechoslowakei. ,Hierher wurde auch Irland 1Dehdren, das kein stadtestatistisches Amt besitzt. Damit ist j-tdoch nicht gesagt, daso in diesen lAndern keine stRdtestatistische,Arbeit, geleistpt Sie it den' einze1nen Fachdienststellen Uberlassen, die die bei ihhen anfajlenden Zah1en sammeln und verwerten.. Sie kann dahtr far die Gemeinden.nicht so wirkungsvo11 arbeiten wie 'die zentralisierte Statistik, wis bereits in dem Fehlen yen sta- tistisphen Publikationen zum Ausdruck kommt. Auch diese Form ist auf die dort herrschende Staatsauffassung und auf die Stadtever- fassung zurackznfahren. ? ?"?? It .1" ? Vt II. In den meisten LUndern Europas, namlich 11, sind in den Grosstadten eigcne statiEtische Amter eingerichtet worden, eine Organisationsform, die sich fast 100 Jahre erhalten hat, wenn sich auch Organisation Lind .Aufgabenkreis spit dieser Zeit gewandelt haben, wie c.uch die Zustandigkeiten der ,ortlichen Ver- 'waltungen.einem Vechse1 unter1agen. Von diesen Xmtern werden in 'den meisteft'Fallen die grossen Zah1un3er. der,Zentralstellen durch- gefahrt und die Ergebnisso dieser Erhebungen fr ,den Ortlichen Bereich ausgewertet, so dass die Stadtvcrwaltungen die benotigten Zahlen erhaltend Ausserdem werden eigene statistische Erhebungen und Untersuchungen veranlasst .sowie Gutachten far die'Vetwaltung pfertigt. Dib meisten dieser sttistischenAmter haben einen akademisch ausgebildeten Leiter angestel1t. Sie veroffentlichen das gesammelte Zahlenmaterial in Monatsberichten, Vierteljahres- berichten und JahrbUchern, ausserdem werden in einigen Stadtea auch einmalige Sonderveroffentlichungen herausgegeben, um die Er- gebnisse besonderer statiritischer Untersuchungen einem 14eiteren Kreise zugangig zu ,machen. ,Durch diese Organisationsform, also durch Zentralidation der statistischen Arbeiten an einer Stelle, doll eine mbglichst grosse Wirkurv.; far den Bereich der Kommunal.- verwaltung erzielt warden. Die 'Amter sind selbstandige Dienst. ,stellen im Rahmen der Ortlichen,Kommunalverwaltung. Sie haben durch ihres aus dor tirtlichen Sicht unternommenen wiesenschaft. lichen Untersuchungen methodisch und soziologisch wertvolle Er- , kenntnisse zur getsamten Statistik beigetragen. In Deutpehland warden z.B, durch die Arbeiten der stadtestatistischen Amter wichtige Vorarbeiten far die Bundes- und Landesstatistik geleis- tet. Viele Erhebungen de zun4chst nur von der Stadtestatistik als zum eigenen Aufgab'enbreich gehorend, durchgefahrt wurden, wurden spAter von der Reich- bzw. Bundesstatistik Ubernommen, als das Sachgebiet sich meh.: und mehr in die Gesetzgebungskompe- tenz des Bunde8 verlagerte. Solche wissenschaftlichen Leistungen sind nur bei der Konzentration srntlicher stati.stischen ArbeAten in einem besonderen Amt moerlich, da nur in diesem'Falle em n Uber- blick ilber das gesainte vorLndene Material gegeben ist. Im libri- gen existieren nicht in alien Grosstadten der hier in Frage kern- sq," Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 13 menden Lander derartige kter. Einen Vbergang zur, dritten Organi- sationsfurmIoieten die Verhaltnisse in Italied,?wo die Arbeit der zwar gesetzlich vorgesohriebenen statistischen Amter eingeschrankt wird durch die' Genehmigung des Zentralamtes ftir drtlich beabsich- tigte Erhebungen und Untersuchungen, die die freie Entfaltung der Stadtestatistik etwas einschrankt. III. Ochliesslich ist noch in weitare Organisationsform erkennbar, die sich in den zentralistisch organisierten Staaten des Ostens findet. Es handelt sich um Mitteldeutschland, Polen, Ungarn, Bulgarien und Jugoslawien. Dort ist die Zentralisation der steams tistischen Organisation?bis zur letzten Konsequenz getrieben. Es sind zwar statistische Amter in den Grosstadten vorhanden, in dimen die statistischen Arbeiten im ortlichen Bereich zentralisiert sind, sie sind aber direkt den statistischen Zentralstellen untergeord- net, die Auggabenbereich und Arbeitsmethode vorschreiben und di0 Leiter der Amter anstellen und entlassen. Infolge der zeptrali? sierten Verwaltungsorganisation kann nicht mehr von selbstandigen statistischen Amtern gesprochen werden, es sind der Zentralgewalt nachgeordnete Dienststellen. Infolgedessen konnen sie eigene Er- hebungen nicht oder nur mit Genehmigung der Zentralstellen veran- lassen und Uben keine Publikationstatigkeit aus. Es gibt dort keine Stadtestatistik als SelbstverwaltungsstatiOik, sondern Lan- desstatistik mit ortlichen Nebenstellen. In Polen und ,Jugoslawien ist im Zuge der Bestrebungen zur Dezentralisation beabsichtigt, die statistischen Arbeiten in .Zukunft wieder etwas mehr'zu dezentrali- sieren. Nach diesen ersten zusammenfassenden Untersuchungen sollten in der nachsten Zeit die gewonnenen Ergebnisse durch weitere Rund- fragen erganzt und erweitert werden,' um das erlangte Bild zu ver- vollstandigen und die Vielfalt der Organisationsformen der Stadte- statistik deutlich sichtbar zu machen. RESUME C'est deja au moyen gge quo l'on trouve, dans l'une ou l'au- tre municipalite, des recensements de statistique municipaux, c'est- A-dire, une organisation de statistique dans divers pays, pourtant, ce,n'est gu6re qu'A la premiere moitie du XIXe si?e quo remontent les bureaux de recensements de statistique, municipaux, soit une organisation de statistique dans les divers pays. Cette derniee dolt 'ori origine au developpement Lndustriel eta la concentration de la population qu'elle entraina dans les villes0 Ii s'ensuit:que les administrations municipales eurent des difficultes A embrasser dun coup la population, son accroissement et sa structure, de sorte qu'il fallut de plus en plus recourir A l'aide d'exposes de statistiques. On recolta done les chiffres de statistique disperses dah6 les differents bureaux d'administration A un bureau central, oa us allaient se trouver a la disposition de toute l'administration et surtout de la direction administrative. L'institut International de Statistique a fait une enquOte afin de r6aliser la situation actuelle de l'organisation de statisti- que des grandes villes europeennes. Les r6ponses de vingt pays quo Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 .1 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop A proved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 nolo avons sous les yeux) divergent les,unes des autres. La dite organisation dopend essentiellement de la constitution rondo? sur lefdroit public de chaque pays. ,Dans la plupart des pays, des bureaux de statistique ont ete institu6s, propres a chaque'grande ville. La statistique la moins centralisee est celle des grandes villes de France, de la Orande-Bretagne, de l'Irlande, du Portugal et de la Tchocoslovaquie. Outre Paris, Strasbourg et Birmingham, les aures grandes villes de co pays no poss6dont point de bureaux de,atatistique. Les travaux de statistique y sont ex6cutes par des bureaux detaches. 4 En Pologne, Bulgaria et' Yougoslavie, de Tame qu'en Allemagne cenrale, des bureaux de statistique ont bien'et6 6tablis dans les grOdes ville6, toutefOis, ils d6pendent des burlaux d'arrondisse- mens des bureaux'centraux de statistique, et n'ont a effectuer augun travail d'eux-mames',,A. moms qu'ils n'en aient l'autorisa- tign.de la 'part des bureaux Oentraux. De co fait, leur mission est-elle, en lour qua1it6 do bureaux 4o statistique, fort restreinte et obtient4ainsi un caract5re diff6rpnt do celui des autros pays. Le r6seu le plus dense de bureaux municipaux est bion celui de la F6d6ra.6ion r6pub1icaine de l'Allemagne, ou,se trouvent des bureaux de statistique clans chacune de ses 54 grandes villes. La direction de 40 de ces bureaux se trouve en main de statisticiens de formation acad6mique. L'organisation dos pays scandinaves, des Pays-Bas, de l'Autriche, de la Suisse. et de l'Italie sont du meme genre. En Italie, elle est mfte proscrite pour toute ville comptant plus de 100 000 Ames, tandis quo dans les autres pays, cc no soit pas chaque ville qui possbde un bureau de statistique. L'er,kqueite de'l Institut International de Statistique regarde de plus les questions suivantes;, les bureaux municipaux de sta- tistique poursUivent-ils des enquetes en faveur des bureaux con- traux et aurtout, exploitent-ils les r6sultats de recensements de cc genre en faveur des bureaux regionaux? On aura alors, un aperp g6n6ra1 des publications de statistiques periodiques et uniques, qui seront pub1i6es par les bureaux de statistique des grandes villes. SUMMARY Statistical censuses were undertaken by various municitios in individual cases already in the Middle Ages, the establishment of municipal statistical offices) however, i.e0 an organization of statistical services in various countries, can be registered only'in.the second half of the 19th century as a result of growing industrialization and subsequent concentration of people in large towns; Owing to this concentration it became more difficult for municities, to survey the population, its growth and structure. Therefore, they had.more and mbre to make use of statistical activities. The statistical figures, previously filed in various scattered administration-offices, were now compiled at one central office and consequently at the disposal of the entire administration, in particular of that of the management of administration? At the beginning of 1957, the International Statistical Institute Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop A?proved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 started an inquiry by circular, to ascertain the present state of organization of statistical services in the large towns of Europe. The answers received from 20 countries reflect a different situation. The organization depends decisively on the public law constitution of the country. Large towns of most of the countries have esta- blished special statistical offices. Less centralized are statis- tical services of large towns in Franc/J, Great Britain, Ireland,' Portugal, and Czecho-Slovakia. The other large towns of these countries, expected Paris, Strasbourg, and Birmingham, do not keep up central statistical offices. There the statistical services are executed in various offices. In Poland, Hungaria, Bulgaria, and Yugb-Slaviar as well as in Central Germany statistical offices were established, but they re- present dependant regional sub-offices of statistical central of- fices and don't have to execute any activities of their own, or with approval of central offices only. Consequently their scope of duties as independant municipal statistical offices has been limited largely, and they are, compared with other countries, of specific character. The tightest net of municipal statistical offices is that of the Federal Republic of Germany, where statistical offices are located in all of the 54 large towns, among them 40 under the direction of university-trained leaders. The organization has been centralized in a similar way in the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, and Italy. In Italy it is even provided by law for municities with a total population of more than 100.000; in the other countries don't have all of the large towns their own statistical offices. The investigation of the International Statistical Institute dealt additionally with the questions, whether municipal statistical offices have to undertake inquiries for central services, and . primarily, whether they have to analyse the results of such censuses for the regional offices. Moreover, it comprises a survey on the periodical and occasional statistical publications, issued by the statistical offices of the large towns. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 II INTERNATIONELLA STATISTISKA INSTITUTET L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE STATISTIQUE THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 30 SESSiON $TOCKHOLM fl/11-15/11 1957 9UEL9UES REMJIR9US SUP LA LISTRIBUTION DE CINTERVALLE ENTRE LE MARIAGE ET LA PREM11RE NAISSdINOE PAR AGE DE LA MERE ET JON DOMICILE (URBAIN - RURAL) pnr DOLFE VOGELNIK Fcicult des Sciences giconomiques, Ljubl ann,Ynugoslavie Sources et type do populntion 6tudie 1=7 Nous p,rosentnns dans cotto communicetion les r4su1tats partiels d une plus vest enque3to gub, nouslIvons mendeau sein du Sdsminaire statistique de la Facalt des sciences dconomiques de Ljubljana sur l'espacement ds naissance.s.en Slovenie. La p)puletion yougnslave est nu point de vue d4mographique trs diff6rente et les. diverse cernctristiques calcul4es? pour la popUlation enti&re sont peu.reprsentctives. Ce8t.liourquoi la limitction de 1 'enqut u une partie, bien d4termini4e et hautement, homoOne peut rev6tir, crnyons nnus,quelque int4ret plus n' tout,particulrement perce quo nous cvons ossalo a eltudiei, 1 espacement des naissances comae tonction de l'Age de le mare et de.snn domicile urbain. nu rural. Let population doY61.ove!nie une des r6publiques populaires de la,Yougoslevie repr6sonte une 'population relativement 6vnluee,au ooirit de vue d?mnFraphique at oponomique. VnilA quelqueparnmAtres ce.rnct6ristiques de cette pnpulatinn (en parenthese nous dnnnons t'A titre de compeataisnn los velours moyennes pour tnute la populntion ynugnslave; d'aprs les r4sultots du recensement de la pnpUlatinn de 1053 at des statistiques de l'tat'civilen 1953): populPtion: 1,5 millinns (17,0); pnpulation active agricnle: 43 % (62 %); population illettr4e.g6e de dix ans' at plu.8:1,0% (24,4%); .taUxbrut de ,natalite: 22 %% (2B %), tacix:brut 'de tortalit,4: 10 W.(1240, m-orta1it6 ?infantile.: (pour 1000 n4-vivants): 59 (116); reijroduction brato.: 1,42 prance de vie .r:A la naissance: (femmes): 64, 76 ans. 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 most ?????,.? L'exiqu8te a 6td base sur 1'61aboration ddtaill4e des fiohes statistiques oriiiinales des qaissanoes de la popula- tion entire de la Slovenie des annees 1i)48 1955 Vaprbe la dete de naissanoe, date du maria, Age de la mere, dimension CO 1E1 naissanoe et lieu de naissanoe. Les fiohes des annees de 1951 et subs, oontenaient le date onmpltite du mariage (jour,, moist annE5e), tandis que les fiohes des ann4esopreo4dentes n'indiquaient que Is durde du mariage en annees. Dans oette communication nous ne'donnons que les resultats sur la distribution da l'intervalle entx:e mariage et is premiere naissance par Age de la mere, et son domicile(urbein-rural). II Niethode Les donn6es - nous n'avons consid4r4,que,les ne- vivants - ont ?subi le double classement d apres is date de naissange at is date du.mariage. Oe double classement ayermis,d attribuer les naissencec aux cohortes bien determinees. des manages des ann4es 1948 a 1954. ? Pour dliminer le plus possible 1 influence des faoteurs secondaires on a cherch4 a arriver aux distribu- tions typiques'en calculant les veleurs moyennes pour is lodriode observ6e. , Pour is distribution typique de 1 'intervene de is ? A A 13remire annep p a.r m0 s les.moyennes ont ete calau- ? 0 ldes, a. is base des donnees mensuelles ,des annees 1951 a 1954. ' Dans le calcul des moyenn0 des intervalles p a r anh4es onada recoUrirfg. un Pro0404 sp4cial pour pouvoi; tirer le plus e,information.i.des.detesdisponibles. Les frequences les plus completes m'existaient que pour le cohorte de 1948 pour laquelle on a pa obtenir le classement de l'inervelle de HO a 6 axis .(1). .Pour cheque whorte suivante 1 interyalle se reduit d un an 8insi que pour la cohorte de 1954 on ne diose que des naissances .de la premi6re ann4e (voir les frequences brutes du Tableau TII Nft6d8 %inns obligees hous.arrfterlA le septi6me aarve';e du A manage comme la limite superieure de nos.recherches de a, esPacement dee Premikires naiesances. Comission des ,naissances:survenues dans les 9,nnees subsequentes tout o e ano n?inttnduit Pas, elaPreS notre.oittaiOn, des alterations sensibles dans la );di.tribution de I"intervalle dtant donn4 clue I:Intervene mbserv4 de 0 a-6.ans'embtasse nviton..99 p.o. d6''t6utes les,Premires naissahpes ."441 ? - 3 . TABLEAU 1. DISTRIBUTION DE L'INTERVALLE ENTRE LE MARIAGE ET ;oh PREMItRE NAI63ANUE. ,FRAUENUES ABSOLUES Intervalle Uohortes 1948, 1:i49 1950 'i'951 1952 ' 1953 1954 Moins , de 1 an . 6671 1 an 2380 2 ans 726 312 4 132 5 105 6 68 6203 629 15428 5558 5852 6454 2546 2482 2104 1920 1955 762 695 592 611 292 317 272 156 149 94 A Itagoportion de is frCquence (pour 1000 premieres naissances) de l'intervalle "6 ens" n,e done pa, We base que sul: le distribution de, lo cohorte de 194Ey'. ElTddsignent les frequences le:.cohorte de 194e Oav n n n , ), 9 6,48' ? ? ? le premier souscrit se ref6rent 1 intervalle, on t eu pour is prrportfon des fr6quenoes de l'intervalle "6 ens": Ma. Pour le,proportion des fr6quences de l'intervelle "Sans" nous nous sommeS bass sur les cohbrtes gle 1948 et,19491 en calculation cette,proportion de l'Oquation: WM* ? n -5.A8 5,49 5, 5 ?,n n 8 . ? 1 " I9 4r in a - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn1nnRnnnoJz Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Pnur 1 pr;'tinn p ,nn 0 QU P n4 48 4 1V 4- n4,50 4 + A < n . n gs. , 48 i49 o ' o, '50 *re 0?11111111i 4 ( 1)6 t P5 ) el.ainsi de suite pnur leicalcul des prnportinns p30 p21 ! ? ? ' prnpOrtinns p6 et 1)14, les prnportinns les plus impnrtantes, cnuirrant,envirn de tnutes les prem16res haissance8, snnt,b6sessur los'enhnrtes de 1948 a 1953 ei spnt dnne bin reprtisentatives. III Intervalles ptr mnis de fa premiLie annele du mariage En,se rattaahmt tnut 'd'abord a 'le'distributinn tntal6 (voir ..8,!Tablecl et le Graphique) nous constatonS qu'elle est 'doteris6e-ar une.c-ourba:timodaleadeux sommets, l'un dans le 100 etl'autre teals le 58 mois apr6s le mariage. Comm l'a d4montr4 M.L. Henry dans son Etude statistique sur l'espacement des naissances (PcTulation, 1951, Nn, 3), los naissances survenues apres le 66 mois du mariage doivent,atre consid6r4es comme des na1ssanc4s sin:ye:es deS:-e4riaeptinns nuptiales', tandis'qUe les naissances des premiers 6 mois du mariage doiyent gtre-:considt5r4es come: des naissances surgies des crInceptions a n t - nuptiale s. ? pour boo boo ANSEMBLE o 1 2 3 9 10 II. IMP 010?001110,11111111?1011111110011W pour boo 00 e? 0 ? ? ? ? ? DuMICILA ?urbain rum]. SI MOM =IP 2o0.24. ane mo a mo DISTRIBUTION DE LIINTEktVALLE ENTRWLEMARIAGE ETU NAISSANCE 'PUN VREMIER ENFANT - par moi a de la premilre Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ?. 6 IMP TABLII1AU II, NAISAWQ-gS VAR MOL-4i DAN F.3 LES 12 PREMIERS M013 DU MARIAGE (pour 1000 naissnnces dans cos 12 mnis) Intor- Exlsam- Dnmioile van.? l'1.(i) Crnupos d'ago de la femme de le femme 15-19 20-24 25-2Q 30-34 35-44 urbain rural Mnins 6e lmois lmn..!.s 70 a5 3 100 A 1T7 ?? 1(ifi I 111 82 1." MOP 8 - rr /0 104 10 4-* 38 11 41 42 GB 54 53 61 39 44 68 70 1/3 64 70 78 86 86 71 75 91 103 cv.) 90 40 128 103 07 47 131 99 81 38 68 107 76 C7 63 35 78 GO 85 70 72 76 r7:1 94 ?.28 143 165 73 110 q6 110 137 165 70 02 82 56 81 05 135 50 72 EnglmKe 10,0 1000 1()O. 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 Laobimndvait6 anur3 fnit penser qu?11 $#agit, t vrai dire, d we cour, t.lomposQ5e, prnvanant de deux distribu- timns. 616menta1res c..vorses correspondant chocune'a des comportemonts bian di:6rents des cnuples dens leurs 7:appnts intimes vis-a-vis du mariage. Ea analysant la distribution totale d'apr6s les grnupes d'ago de le femme a4 manage, nn peut d4ce1er dans los distributions de l'intervalle du grnupe d'8ge de '35 e. (type A :LO la courbe du .graphicon) et du Fnupo d !!ige de 15 a lg (tyip 3) ces deux distributions elementeArcs Tansi dens :Lour fnrme. Lci? typo A de .10 distributir,m caract6ristique pour les onuples qui se snnt mantes a un age reletivement tardif -?cn.:ircsir)ond au cnmportement des gens pour lesquels 10 mariage...nopreEent,e la forme a,ssez rigide moralement et socialoment donnee et acceptee pour le. reglement ,de, leurz dcSoenduce. La 2orme s'approche assez de pps a uric fnrE'imaginc idedle qui refl4trait 1 'stat nu il n'y a ps, 6e conv3ptiosant6nuptiales et ntki le maximum unique dos ,Dnncept , f,nn3 c?ffectue dans les premiers Innis du Tnarir.jc. tyDe'.D.de la dtributinn refleteun comprrote- ment bf_en -diff6reilt. Le pi:xlmum des naissances s est d6p1n6 tl-sicuche'cequ6 montre quo la plus grande..partie des nassacIceJe la .premiere ?annee du mariage...provient des .connepirns annr.ptieles4 Oe ?snnt-le'4e1:5e et 60, mariage qr,1 fr.:at apparaitre les plus fortes naissances coret.Jpondant.es aux conceptions qui se snnt effeetues de 4 a 6 mnis (avant 10 mnriElge. 11s'agit deo., couples qui ont .1 dos reppor nntdnuptiaux =is qui se sont mnIzids sans, hsitotion snnt npor9u8 que, leurs nntn.uptialix ont nboutt a' laconception a'un , .Le 4nmpnrtamnt du :typo 13 es't 9snlument pr4ponduren ?het les remmes -;kunes (Cagc;',Je 15 19 qutnnt le privilegado no paoae soucir pls-,beeiuon,up,dans leurs,repports des conven- ttonsisnciales et morales nu mnins 4usou eu mn*Iltipti leurs rapp0v0 n so mt4rin1isent'dns 1 rivaement de la onnoep- tion,et dcins 2Arriv6e de l'enf,ant. 'pette cet6gorie compvend cus? les cas nu 3,es couples uti?sent, dans li prirclo nt6nuptie1e, 'dos mnyens ralti- conceptl.nnels (y cnmpris l'evortoment vnulu) tdis qui, 6 un moment donne' au lieu de de)ntinuer ls.urs'pretlAues en.O.conceptionnelles, se ddcident. pour 1 enfant et pour le 144r1,ages Enfin yo,snnt inclus aussi,1es, cas (cutTePois.dens ceratines rogi6ns de lo Sinv(inie essez nnmbrqux, Sp4cielement pnpu1p.t1:1on airic010 nd le'marisoge.na pap 44 onnolu avant'que, la feMme ait pas 46mnntr6 d un e meni6re suise fdcnnaie, c'est-A-dire se.crq)acitel ,de clonner au'propridteire ngricole:un h4ritier. En regardnnt de plus prig la diotribtitinn d rnupe d'&ge de 14 6 19 on s aper9oit d un troisike sommet situd dens le 2e mnis du mariege, evec des frdquences tout a fait remztrquable,s dans le premier et le 30 mois du mariage. Nous crnyons qu nn en pout deceler un troisime type de distribu- tion cnrrespnndant au troisiLne type (C) de onmpnrtement des couples. Il s'agit des couples qui se snnt aper9us que leurs rapports antgnuptiela . vont pboutir A le naissance d un enfant qui coperidant, pour diverses rc.isnns, no pouveient, pns se decider a taps pnur le mariage. Cest le cos probablement care:cteristique des jeunes filles qui ont. pout- otre rdussi ,crAer devent lcs parents (et peut-ftre nussi devant le,fut,ur pere)Hjusqu' un mnment assez avanc6 le fait de la, grnIsesse et-qui-sont enfin, aU.dernier moment, poussges au Mariege pour '6'viter le 'rcproche social '? (et latOrnel perfois plus forte ,encore); toujnurs eXistont.d.une.nais8ance Les 'distributions des qroupes d'.gte do 20 a .,34 reprdsentent les ces intermediaires dont 'les .diff4rences dens l'ellure (vnir les distributions AB1 et AB2 du Graphique) re'sultent des poids diffdrents des distributions 41gmentaires dont cues sont composdes. On on p,eut discerner facilement deux vari4te's intermddiaires, representE"es dans notre graOique par les,courbes AB' et JB2. ? Aux grnupes d''Age de 25 a 29,et de. 30 E 34 le grrupe des femmes du type A reste? tnujnurs prepnnd4rant bien que le grnupe des femMes du comportment type B et provnquant le second sommet des conceptions antenuptiales se fasSe d4j6.selltir.. A 1.',1ge de 20-24 .axis les conceptions ant6nuptiales-deviennent Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 0.16, IMO Declassified in Part - Sanitized Co .y A proved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 :04(,)nadrantes, -cu qui poUs66,1 maxiMum-vers,les,cncep- tinns antauptiales, le second sonnet des con9ept1on2 postnuptiales ne jnunnt qu'un rc1e infthlieut, ' ReVehant la distributihn tetralo 'on voit clue du point de lue grer0Q partie,de's .conceptions ii.oviannent dU temps,evnnt IeCCe'14bration du mariageo, c est- a-dire aDpartiennet. et cOmpOrtement types et C. 0 est done le'cas leo plUs .f.r4quent, le cas sncialement normal. Ocasoprouve d une'part que l'acte fnrmel du meriage ne representel pour le plus grande pertie,des cnuples, une bvri6re sensible pour leurs rapports entcinuptisa, et d autre part:quel errivc'e,prophaine de 1 6nfent pousse ceSooupl0S v,sanctionner leurs,relations par le Mariage. Le 'graphique tontre eusi lds distributions,de l'intervalle des neissances pout it populetiOn utbaine et rurale Tendis quo le ,distribution pnut,tla population rurele num4riquement preponderente ,-,suit'assez de 'pr63.1a4istribution tptale,',1a distribution pour la populeticin urb6i,I.e est esseni.Oilement,una distribution du ty.e B. Ge n est d'aitleurs 4u un des aspects dU fait bien cohnU quo la vie dens la .V.qlle 'est beaucciup moms domin4e par les conventions mordles et sociales vis-a-vis de 1n vie tt le campagne. IV' Intervalles par anne5ps Dans la Tableau,3 figure:titles distributionapar ann6es pour les piiemitos Sept ann4es ,du mariose coutrant .environ - 99 p.c. du total des:10.1remire$ n.aisenc.es. Pou les . limittances survenues dniis la IJrtmiere'annge du,mariage nous avons donna la subdivision de l'.intel,svalle de 0 a' / mois (conceptions ant.6nu tiales) et de 8 ,a:1.1.51pis (goncep- tions'postnuptibles t,? 1 X ?g r ? 1 IMP TABLEAU III. DiaTT4BUTION DL L'INTERVALLE ENTRE LE MARIAGE ET 144-1 'ABMItRE NAI66A14E, Vnleurs ?moyennes 1948-1953 Inter- valle 0-7 mole 8-11 mois II Ensom-i OtoUpes c16 la femme Domicile de le ble 15-19 20-24 245-29 30-34 35-44 femme urbein rural 422 50f1 ,;454 363 317 245 453 413 212 . 183 104 250 270 293 164, 223 Moins de 1 an 64 t 687' , C48 1 uri 235 195 i1228 2 ans 70 66 68 3 - 30 29 29 - 15 12 [ 11 .!; 5 - 10, :81 . 10 , 6, 3 , 6 Ensemble 1006 1000 1000 013 247 75 32 14 10 9 1000 587 538 265 318 76 89 37 33 . 17 10 .11 5 7 7 1'000 1000 617 212 76 50 25 13 7 1000 636 241 70 26 12 9 6 1000 ?q. On-voit tout (Calbrd' que.fees nai.sspnces con9ues event le mari,agP, repr4sent:e:nt pnviron, 4202, p.o. de toutes les premires 'inaissancea,.Aln chiffrelleaucpup plus fi1ev4 du chiffre quo M. Henry a constP,t4 pOur le Boh6me d'avent guerre..,,Qe pourcente vane ,assz, consild4rab1ement d'apr6s 'de la femme, tandislu, la Aiff6rence entre le chiffres pour la posulat,lon urbainp et rurele snnt moms prononc4es. ? . , .1 1.1 . I . Nrvusjitpnsrqhe,rah4, axpliquer pea diff4rences dans la partie III denote comtunication. Le noibre ti1ev4 des conceptions antgnuptiales des jeunes femmes a pour conse- quence que la proportion totale des naissences de 14 premi6re ann4e ?du manage est aussi-plua fortechez les (junes femmes et qu elle diminue avec l'Age, ce qui 06utit d autre part ,n4pe3sairement a ce clue l'ordre des proportions des naissances de la deuxi6me annee du manage soit inverse. Environ 87 p.c. de toutes les naissances surviennent dens les deux premi6res enn(Ses du manage. Les ann4es suiventes du mariage no mnntrent qu'un rpmbre tr6s faible des premieres naissances. Les frequences' tree faibles dea. neissances des intervenes do plus de trois axis doivant en nutre 6tre regerd6m avecrdserve vu be nombre teletivement. faible des donn4es brutes.. Declassified in Part - Sanitized ? Co? y A proved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-ninagpnni,wnorw-,,,? g. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 110 ? IT 10 sumgABY Soma observations nn the distribution nf the interval between the marringe orl(7 the first birth, analysed by nge.ehd domicile nf mother. In analysing the dlstribution of tile intervel,s'by mnnths betWeen the marrge and the first birth of the ,Slovenian pnpulatinn by 'lge and domicile nf mother for the cohorts of.marrieges of the years 1948 tn 1954 the 6,uthor discloses three types of distributions correspnnding tO*three,types of tetiavnur nf the ,couples vis-a-vis the marriage: Type A, caracteristic for elder couples: nrv births before the gAghth' month following the marritge' (i.e. no antemarital cnmcoptiOn), maximum of births in and zrnund the ,ninth month of iilurriage. 2. Type B, caracteristic for the major part of the .populqtion,and especially significant for the urban ''pppUlatJron: maximum :1.f births, iathe fifth month of jaarriage Most, nf birth's in the first year of ma*.r.iage Aomp"rot:antemeal, -conceptions), _ 3. Type 0',.ce4',actirirstic for tl*veryoung moth4.rs (age ',groupe 14 :to 19) v., maximum of births in and ax.p.nd ? the 'second tinlith-nt The 'author tries to explain the sociological back- ground f7 thee thre,e paracteristic types of he4avnur. I INTERNATIONELLA STATISTISKA INSTITUTET L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE STATISTIQUE THE INTERNATION el STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 310 SESSION STOCKHOLM 108-15/8 1957 Mrs A. M6d Hungary SOME PROBLEMS OF THE STATISTICAL MEASURING OF PLAN-FULPILMENT IN HUNGARY. The problems of the statistical measuring of plan-fulfilment cannot be appraiised but on strength of some knowledge of planning; therefore ' it is neoessary to give a brief outline of this Operation. In the coUrse of recent years planning has been constantly changing, developing in Hungary. It began with the Three Year Plan in 1947? This Plan, then not for all fields of economy, inciuded only.th9 most important indicators. The plan relating to the next phase, the Fi.ve Year Plan could, as a result of changes meanwhile having taken pi4ce in ownership, cover a wider scope of economic and social life but con- tained, and with right, too, only general data and prescriptions otn- cerning the main ratios. Besides also more detailed annual plans were drawn up, with yearly chancing methods. On one hand, more and more numeLcal data were available, thus ensuring a firmer basis for planning, on the other, plans were becoming eve' more detailed - 110t. without having its drawbacks. The view that the more detailed an, economic plan, the better it is, gained ground. , It is Obvious that realistic and correct planning r4quires a very wide scope of nliniel,oal data. Thus, for instance, to be abld to take a decision in the !mot important problem, how much may be used for consumption and accumula- tion respectively, obviously the national income must be appraiso4. To do so, computations have to be made, to cover all fields if economy, of social and cultural life and a number of important indicators are needed for all these fields. Not all such computations can, hiwever), be made binding directives in the form of a "Plan Law"; a part there- of are simple figures required for the correct determination of the plans. In the course of the development this.essential difference between the computations needed for detailed planning and the plan it- self, became, to a certain extent, obliterated. Thus tasks in the Plan were prescribed too meticulously and planning assumed some bureaucratic features imposing heavy administrative burdens. BeYPnd a certain point, it hampered .local initiatives, the implementation of actual intentions. While =planning ,was becoming on one hand mos detailed, at the same time it was also one-sided to some extent despite most elaborate detailed figures the Plan System did not elude any computations prescribing as to hew far production 'and, II distribution was economical. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA RDP81-01043R001300080002 3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 The shortcomings of this practice had become obvious and the system and method of planning have undergone, a marked improvement in recent years. Plana are being based on an ampler material of computation than in the beginning and, at the same time, contrary to the too de- tailed methods of the interim years, the principle to indicate only the direotion and main internal proportions of the economy, is making headway., The number of indicators compulsorily prescribed in the various 'fields has undergone a radical diminuation. The 1957 plans lay down directives concerning production of socialist industry and construction, marketing of agricultural products by the state sec- tor, the mostPeignifioant-foreaastsof,torestry,,forccasts as to purchasing, the 1957 goods-supply of domestic trade by the Ministries conoerned, foreign trade and the respective tasks of delivery of the competent Ministries, prescriptions 6Oncerning education, the develop- ment of the health and social services, the tasks of housing, the extent and the division of Investments and renewals, supply of material ,fundsquid,technical help by ministries, and finally the Wages. Fund, similarly ,by Mihisiries& Besides', as basis for computation the most diverse material balances1 the main aggregate data of agri- cultural .producti,on /orop, cultivation, live-stock/, the development of stocks, maripowet,baInnee, the development 'Of'.costs 'of production, the produoti.on and consumption of the National Income., the' data of purchesing pelmet and of consumer 6ods availale aS"weil as tile'Finan- cial Balance ate being drawn up. As tha,,StatePlan thus contains fixed4:conotet,e nuMprie,pro,scriP#ons coverinira Wide scope of economic,, cultural and life in form system, it reasonatag that it 'should suffice to maapur,e-, the fulfilment of each numeric prescription the drawing up iof,: the 'wail.'"known.'Tidn-Tulfilmont,Percentagen indiooe.. The Hungarian Statistical 'Office hadiactually followed t,hiap;,*a'ti,a,e,f,cili, aqpr,ig time ,andonlrasaireataat .of an .appreciable .developmot..did, it rc.o'gnize. the thus 'implementing ltstask ,for.maiyv ,it fails to. 001)04'104th' the etz(senca:af the problem. In orclOt, to get neat to the cote of the task, a distinPt:,lineHhas to lid-14r4n,ketuen .the actual main intentions if the St's,WP:49.'XI:Ard. the ,concrete Plan directives aimed at reaching.aue1'ijntentioni.,T11.6' .genetal ancf*Penstan'taim of t.he Plan in our co4ntiy, is, of eaur66;, thepOse01:6, raising of .the ,living standard of t46 working people .as tar*aei ai,rOmstances permit. in this wording, however', th,e aim' lei So vague that ii'oanndt be .called .a plan. . That it -should 'develop ' into 'a Plan, ,t1.10 main objbatives of the plan have fold6fixed which determine, 46wMie above ,general aim 'can:andshall,.bp'attained,' how and by hcw,1nUdh,#he-4virig standard shalZ,Ve'inc;ea6e4, tent and' vijiat c?otiposiftok the goo.ds..availabIeslial)J,14 pla6,6 at the tITsioitil'offife'itOiid.'atid tO411dt--0.ktOlit they shall be 'Elobumb. for 1/*"vert't?Hwhqt0it:'81: must be c,overed from internia or .extornaI, resources. 'Th.esdrpaiy10 .00.400i'Alid:PlAil:beidng-'6tilliiatliei, of '6::e*'.til:''..O'htiTadtbi further ilan0i4Ve irte.'iMi)16MOnthd:abtv main objeotives in tile various fields of life. These detailed, con- crete, numerioal prescriptions are oommonly.indentified with the Plan itself. The measuring of those latter plan prescriptions began to prove ob- viously inadequate when we could account on one hand about the .f4- filmunt of the detailed plans about the increase of industrial output, about the growth of trade, about the spending of the funds forecast for inveatment and, on the other hand, studying economic development as a whole, its interconnections, we had to ace that the main ob- jectives, or an appreciable part of them, were at the same time ,loft unfulfilled. This recognition meant, of course, to a certain extent a criticism of our planning, but it also throws light on the inade- quateness of the system develope4 for the measuring of plan-fulfilment. This has led us to ask: what is to be actually regarded the Plah ' and how it is to be.measured. The answer was that the notion of, Plan must be interpreted more amply and the methods of its measurement' must be developed accordingly. al this has led the Hungarian e' Statistical Office to adopt the view'that as the part-prescriptl.onw. of the Plat being, for one, of different importance and, for another, correlated to each other, and since a series of plan-fulfilmentqer-c centages or any other numeric meane do not give a right order of ?, importance or express the connections and mutual effects, the measur- ing of plan-fulfilment is not a more statistical task but rather a work of economic valuation, analysis, fulfilled with statist4.9a , methods. /Beside testing the performance of these:tasKs in :0:101,waY described here-above, the Statistical Office measures,.*::bour also the fulfilment of the detailed numeric plans in .ehe usual manrieiq ? ? About thel methods and problems of amorebroaS ,ing of the planrfulfilment. As ti o Main tasks of the Plan relate to big genetal connections!, it naturally follows that in order to give a correct appraisal of' .he fulfilment of those plans, the statistical methods reserved.foribig general psocesses must bo applied. In Hungary this ib,donevitli the aid of the Economic Balance System, parts of which are,: 1. The balance of man-power and of labour force, 2. The balarice of gross material prOduct- / .consisting of two .parts: 1/ Similarly to the concept of the gross national product, the, of the gross material' product includes the valueOf/Mle,. Ifingl prdduct and that'at 'provisions for.00nsumption.00fixOd ,.cdpitalbut.Aiffers:from it .1naeMudh-As .itt44.04;49,EL.th.e-Vellle_ of the intermadiatory roduc,t,4 , Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 _ 4 a/ aggregation by economic seotors and by use, b/ Intereonneotions of gross production and consumption between economic sectors /the so-called chessboard balance of the 'gross Material product, which has some similarities with the input-putput tables/, 3. The balance of net material product 2/, showing the production and the distribution of the net material product,' 4. The financial balances; i.e. the balances of the State Budget, the balanee of International ;Payments and the balance of the money- 'incomes and outlays of the population. Though this System of Balances gives, of couree, only in its cam- pleltity a comprehensive picture of the most important process, in the following we shall deal solely with the problems of the national in- come and with those of the computations attached, They are mos0y the ones containing the data which, from somp points of view as final re- sults, should give the' nearest information regarding the main tasks - of the plan. 1 1 4 I 1 S 1 S ? 6 "%81:' 1 41 1 The fulfilment of the plans can be properly valued only against a long run developtent, if possible 'even more so, than that covering, numeric' part prescriptions. Thus the first task is to draw up the Balance of' the National Income at unchanged prices. To draw up the National ,Income Balance at unchanged prices, in a way allowihi:for-theequilibrium of,. prodgetion,and,0PnPum7bion,in spite . of the application of the naturally not quite correct different price indices and volume prices, is. a',.most,el,aborate statistical task. Ex- perience has taught us that however great difficulties this way in- volvespi the methods of computation must be developed until the balance of the production and consumption sides can be ensured at unchanged prices. Not until the final figure e of the production and consump- tion sides tally, can we be sure about the porredotness of the final result. Since the question cannot be pUt even in such a way that before the two sides agree we cannot know which of the two values of the production Arid consumption sides is correct /as it can turn out and it occurMi4equently in practice that a third, interim value proves.correct/, it is clear that not until the two sides of the , National Income computed at Unchanged prices tally, can wo find means to 46tablIsh correctly the dynamics of the National Income. Having mentioned the most general problem time and cemparability, going over to the dadwirr.inorsirriworroomemimmesioaridow of analysing development in underlying issues proper, ,it / The concept of the net material prodUct /i.e. national income/ differs from the concept of the net national product in the estima- tion of the value of services as we do not measure the value or rendered services, but its material consumption only. ? is obvious that the analysis has to be poformed broken down into two main groups: ?, 1. to what extent and how the living conditions .of t (14orIrs, changed in. the.given period, , 0 what has boun done for a future change in the living condi- , tions of the workers: In other words: what has happened in the field of consumption ' accumulation; In the following I wish. to deal only with the fird.t group of questions bocauss one single group gives also a picture the character of problems generally arising and about the ways,of'their solution. /I/ National ;noon-) and computations of Real income in measuring plan- In the analysis of the changes in the living conditions of the popula- tion, the computation of the consumption side of the EationaliInbcme offers a good starting point, but let us emphasize: a starting 'point only. To be able to feature thee living conditions of the population properly, we have to abandon the circle of National Income computa- tions; this purpose is best served by, computations of real wages real incomes. Row can we .sum up the difference between the approach through te Nationa,1 Income on one hand and through real wages -'real incomes on the other? , 0 With us the calculation of the National Income starts from the side of material production, it uses a grouping and valuation corresponding to the realisation of production; accordingly it covers big fields, actually giving comprehensive results embracing the population as a whole. Realwincome, on the other hand, starts from the individual income resp. individual consumption of the population, uses a classi- fication by the main groups of the population thus being apt to give detailed results as to various classes, strata', groups. Besides con4. 1 sumption as per the NatLonal Income covers only the corisWflptiOT of goods, whereas the computation of Real Income include also that of services. This, however, does ,not 'mean that when judging the living conditions of the population, the national income computations can be dispensed with. It partly gives a picture of the ratio between con- sumption and accumulation, partly a number of data required for establishing the real income of the peasantry are based on this balance, and mainly because the annual dynamics of the population's consumption _? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080007-3 .1.4.yon ,14 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Rs shown on the ooneumption eide of the national ineome offer oontrol Thr the average real income index of the varioun group of the popula- tion. If the real illOOMQ indices of the vari oue glroup n of people tyre \ 'correct, their weighte4 averages must ageoe with tho index of the eon-' eumption of tha total population ns reeulting from the National In-' con, wW:edue, regal* to the intrineic difference between the two methods. The computations covering the living condition of the populatien cover separately the development of the real wageo and real incomes of workers belonging to certain mein strata of the population. Theme calculations show the development of the real incomes nf workers, employees and peasants and moreover, that of workers engaged in certain physical and intellective' professionsi The statiotical re- turns help to analyse the changos the nominal'incomes and the price level undergo and hew, on one :Ade, the changes in the. earnings themselves, on the other, those of wage-earners and their proportions act. They also display.the difference te be found behind the changes of the living condition averegos. Also how deviations from the average affect certain layers and how the incomes of various family types develop, etc. Whereas ill the case of workers and employees real wages and real in. comes together with the,development of social allocations give.a more or less satisfactory picture of their living conditions rosp. changes of these, in case of the peasantry it is far,Prom satisfactory. The personal existence of the peasantry is closely interlinked with the agricultural unit serving its maintenunce: the same goods which serve their personal consumption can be used alsq for the maintenance and enlargement' :of its enterprise. Owing to the interchangeability of consumer goods and factors of production, the peasantry actually uses the. goods available whether for its enterprise or its personal needs. -So the examination:of hi 2 consumption alone does not give a true picture of the development of his full ocOnomicTesources, living conditions. ,Thus e.g. if we had wanted to judge the living standard of thespeasantry alone by its consumption, we ought to have f reported aboUt the very poor year of 1952 /when the peasantry slaughtered quite'a considerable part of the livestock in lack of \ fodder, consumed its stocks and was forced to a relatively high con- sumption/ that the standard of living of the poasantry increased. On the other hand, about 1953, when the good crop allowed the peasants to renew their farms, when they could increase livestock, stocks and consumed relatively less, we should have said that its standard of . , living was stagnating or at least decreased. ' This duality of the living. conditions of the peasantry, its most complex character as a consumer and producer, makes it imperative that its living conditions be made subject to double analysis; for one: similar to workers and employees, the changes in the volume of con sumption of the peasantry must be expressed; for another: taking into consideration changes in stocks, the developmen.6 of the real value of vr,t!f? te. 01 A r:-.matot,r1"f!**(111,, ? A' SNIP the peasantry's income must be established. --? In the present stage of our economy it ts of special importance,to know from what sources the peasantry draws its income: what is its income from agricultural production and what is its revenue from: wages for nonagricultural, industrial, building, etc. work. Such analysis has shown that in recent years, due to,the relative backward.- nose of agriculture, the ratio of peasantry's income from agriculture has greatly d,ecreased and that from, industry increased. Similarly,it is most important to examine the proportion between income in money and In kind. The development of income in kind should-give an idea about the supply of the overwhelming majority ofthe fundamental consumer goods, ,income in,money showsothu?extent of the relations with town, industry, culture. it is further most timely to clear up the problem, to what extent the peasantry covers its needs of consumption from own production and how for from the central stock. We submit also the questitn of price movements to thorough scrutiny.. Prices, thro4gh the'money-'ane'goods-connections between peasantry and State on the' one hand, and the peasantry and the rest of the population on the other hand, can appreciably influence its participation in the National In- come. t. It is therefore that we examine most thor9ughly the movement of prices in respect of articles sold and purchased by the peasants and their corolation. In view of the town-dwellers, special attention is paid to the changes pe the free market prices as reflected in the sal.es of the peasan.pry. Taking into account the fact that in recent years the increase of the agricultural output has lagged behind the development of the economy as a,whole, and consequently, the demand for africultural , products has, on the whple, expeeded supply, the peasantry has fetched relatively high price's for its products. In years with inferior crops, as a result of relatively high free market prices, the peasants.found almost full.comT)entation for the st'aller volume of products, and in years with beteS crops, when demand was still greater than supply, with prices not proportionally lower, the relatively bigger volume of products ensured relatively favourable conditions as compared to those of the workers and employees. ? The'taSk of statistically comparing the living conditions of workers, employees and pensante; raises an apparently dimple but really most complex statistical problem viz, that of delimiting_these,peainegroups as properly as possiblie:. Slice) delimitation did not represent any special problem in olden days, because the agricultural and non- agricultural population could be relatively easily separated. The situation is different to-day when, due to the big and rapid growth of our ,industry, arid construction, the agricultural producer of the village of 'yesterday changes gradually into an industria?. worker,. Between 1949 anc,Id 1956 the number ef,eMPloYees ,in industry and , bdildtle increase.d by over 500,.000 i?e? by about 65 per cents This rise comes to' .a great extent ,from agriculture. The major part of tlie new masses of workers, streaming from agriculture into industry takes part at the time of the harvest and ether peaks in the work of Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? 1?14E-T' .8. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ceuntry-family and drewe the main part oX hie food Oupply from the village base. In view of this' multifariousnese of traneitory forms, tt 1 difficult to delimit properly theee two layere from each other, eepecially if we consider that not the earner themcolvee must be rouped but the peaoant households have to be delimited acoording to 1.eir character, though some members of the 8=0 peasant households !eave incomes as peasants, others as workers or employees.? Under such eircumstances a perfect delimitation is, of course, impossible. In erinciple this delimitation takes placo on ground of the dominating eaxt,of income in ease of incomes from several sources. It is based on the consideration that soonor or later it will determine the corresp- ending character of the living conditions, of the way of living. A elest careful statistical survey and thorough computations are ru. quirod.to obtain an approximation as to how the part resulting from ngricultural production and that from wages resp. salaries develops. 2hci cemputabions mentioned 11.thortt make possible the analysis of :the development in acOordanot with the main intentions of the plan. These computations show, emong others j)euhe'real joint effect of the planned wage and price policy, He influence of changes in employment on household incomes, in cennec- tion with the relative plans, tlie effect of the fulfilment of plans relating to the development of agricultural cooperatives on basis of the detailed analysis of the incomes of peasants'working in cooperatives or individually, and, ccmparing the incomes of workers and peasants, the actual share of these. most essential strata of the pepulatian in the national income. )Thongh the said methods serve a far-reaching analysis fef plan-fulfil- - ment, thwy do 'not exhaust the task; the examination of Gther fields also required. ' :jtatiP.:10.a1eto.P:t4lEeSif.the T921ftlatiqn? outlan_la_maliarInE_Lan= Nelfilment. examination of the livirkg, conditions of some_miapolillal of the whole population. If 1:1G. wish to examine the living conditions. of the population, 1,1 is sobvipu6'that though it is of decisive,impJrtance, we cannot be satire,. fled with -the.statistical analysis of 2nix.1.12.2?Lagomes of the vaelous Classes, layers, .groups. . In complementation of it, it :ts-absol ,ly imporatim:e.to analyse 'statistically aLso ,tht.1-lieation of thA6,40omes, the Movement of expenditures?the pattern of consumption To this end We partly study care-fully trade and the catering industry, its division .16,-.1,6.41/40inry;o44,4 ? 1.'1. ,t .1,1,0741pra47. 1+, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Rel 2013/02/20 C R ;4 9 ? among the various forms of tradu /Statel-cooperative, private, products directly marketed by village producers, etc./. On the other hands we endeavour to obtain information also from the population iteelf in this impertant question. At present, 1700 town workers and 2800 country workers /collective and individual farmers/ render household statist- ical data .which give us partly valuable information an to the aptual composition of in6ome, on.the other hand about the chanes in oft- sump,tion. Thus e.g. data are obtained about the aggregate incomes of families of various types, /the pr capita income within the family is of the most determinative importance/, further about th otors underlying this income per head /size of family, proportion between earning members and dependants, the average earnings in case of'differ- ont numbers of earners, etc./. Apart from the composition of income, we gain ample data of the way of using the incomes. Such data make possible the comparison between the living conditions of workers and employees and of the peasantry, as well as the comparative analirsAs of the various layers, thb.establishment'of the structure of con- sumption, and how !t is interconnected with incomes. These data show also the material and cultural level of the various strata, their alimentation, clothing etc. Such relatively abundant data give rich material fer' testing the living conditions of the population partly to judge the main tasks not in the plan, partly to make further, plans. Th9 vaiitus computations of real wages, real income as well as ,the tests of household statistics are to give general features of the members ,of different classes, layers, groups, but in themselves do not throw light on changes in the living conditions of the popula- tion as a.whole. It is therefore that we examine changes exercissing an influence on the popUlation as a whole, too. E.g. as referred to above, many workers were peasants some years ago. At the same time the consumption level of the peasants, even though to a lesser extent than beforel'is,still lagging buhind that of the workers. Con- sidering, that the real income indices both of peasants and of workers, reflect the changes only within any one group, it is clear that stepping over from the group of petIsants into the circle of worker's means such a sudden rise which does not find due expression either in the real income index of one or of the other strata. In recent yearsrour zociety has been featured by great changes, thus, a peasant becoming a worker is but one instance of changing over "from one circle into another". Similarly powerful migtations have' taken ,place also within the peasantry and within the circles of workbrs and empIudes. Masses-6f unskilled.workere tave.become trained and skilled workers; the ever:increasing number of inferior technical cadres has been ? mainly drawn from among the skilled-workers and from the:best:Workers and?emploYees'there became Denumber of first class, experts .leadlefig ( economic and cultural life. At the same time, entrepreneurs and the like, who uses to live on a higher level of consumption, have become -Ui 043R001 080002-3 .11 10- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 workers. The chanae "frem one oirole into another" . a grandione change in the structure of profeseione - partly illuotrates and explains the ohne in' the average conditions of the main proupo of the population, partly makes poesible the completion of valuing the Main Averagest in feet a better valuation. The former computations make it primarily possible that beside- measur7 ing theefulfilment of the plans of distribution, their impact on every- day life-of the population can also .be measured. The olordination add iMplementation of the plans relating to the shaping df incomes' and . their use are, made possible by. ,these figures. , Summing up, those cal-, oulations show the joint!eiTect of carrying out the various intentions cohourning the living conditions of the different strata. /3/ Analysis of certain Question6 Of timely interest for judging the implementation of the Plan. The analyses hitherto mentioned are sp to say always valid. In addi-4 tion, the ooncrete circumstances prevailingsdetermine,when and in which Tields further tests for the meritory valuktion of plan-fulfilment are required. Let some examples be quoted: Foreign trade plays an important part in the life of our country and thus in the development of the living standard of the populati,in. / Imports and exports account for about 20 per cent. each in the National Income. Foreign trade having developed, in recent years in a manner considerably different from our plans, and, at the, same time, the standard of living 5of t,he population not having developed by the it was found neces,sary :to submit foreign trade to a statistical ana- lysis paying due regard to its broader connections. Against 4sUoh background we have partly been dealing with the interconnection be- tween production and foreign trade plans, partly with. ,the actual re- lations between our foreign tradfi and production. We have further dealt with the 'interconnection of our industrialisation, agricultural production and ,our ,trade. We have statistically proved the connection between the production ,of the natiOnal income as well as its use for consumption and accumulation and the development of the balance of foreign trade. ,The purpose of these computations was to render account, in what form the fulfilment of various plans referring ,to different fields is realised, how it influences the othei connected fields, how it ultimat6ly affects the consumption of the .population. In consequence of the events of Autumn 1956, the problem of' the equi- librium between goods available and purchasing power gained special iMpetus., To make the importence,bf the problem evident, it will do.,. well to refer to the fact that according to preliminary estimates, the ( national income in 1957 per capita will bo Tte 10 per cent. lower than in 1955.,16A,1:the-eamd time the consumption of the ,population' per , , ,r.rrrtr4X3WAI ? ''t; Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? -11- head will exceed, on account of the readjustment of wages and prices and of tfil., change in the marketing conditions of the peasantry, that 9f b" 15 per cent. /As well-known, a number of countries, first of all the SOTZT'Union have contributed-a great deal to the solution of the problem arising herefrom in the form of substantial aid and loans. It stands, of course, to reason that it is only a contribution to the solution of the problem but ?armlet be regarded as the solution its(.1f./ In order to throw light upon the problem, we tried to sum up the, situation at the beginning of this year on basis of the developMOnt of not circulation, of the velocity of oirculhtion of money, the stocks, the volume of consumer goods coming from home production and foreign credits or aid. We also forecast the incomes and expenditures of the population duly considering the purchasing and taxation forecasts and the wage rises decided upon. This work had also boon based on National Income computations in view of ,the fact that it represents the upper limit for covering all requirements from inland resources. Figures showed that in 1957 the national income willciver the con- supption requirements and it even permits investments if a more medest,nature than hithertJ. Calculations ,,have also proved ha..w..,much_jbigger a ?volume._ of, 99,as. e,.....Pr.bqyidedj,orths lAst,? year 9..quA3,4)?yium how much of it must be covered partly from an, increased quantity Of consumer goods produced 'within our total output and partly through foreign trade. Thi s .computation.served, exceptionally, less theApurpose' if, acoountr ing for plan-fulfilment than to offer a ground for.adequate plansi measures. 40 The aforementioned examples sAould give an approximate picture as t40 how the work 9f thu Hungarian Statistical Office supports the measur- ing if plans and that cf planning itself. It is evid:9nt that a. number of cases when the Statistical Office does not muasure the prescribed tasks but values the realisatiin if the main tasks k planning, it.has ften to interpret'the plan itself. Thus e.g. the interpretation of how far the readjustment of wages performed in Summer 1956, when workers in low wage-categories got a rise - is open to interpretation from the point of view of the main objectives of the Plan. This readjustment, while raising the standard of living in a very justified field at a rate of more than average, is diminishing at the same time the relatively small differences be- tween the earnings of lowly and highly qualified workers, which did not exercise a beneficial effect on wages proportionate with output, . with the quality of work, on the reproduction if qualified workers and through all this, on developing production and on raising the standard UPI of livina of the whole community. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 The,above,statistical work seryee simultaneously the measuring of the actual plan-fulfilment an further planning. The statistical , data and Valuatiens offer a vat' arraY of knowle4ge for planning and for Government meaeures. 4 fro N. 1-si 00 Although our work has seen a significant:deVelopment in the course() of recent 'years, in my opinion wo are ,far from being satisfied. As far as, the ,statistical data themselves aro concerned: the relatively wide scope of the uniform otatistical accounting systeniensured by the State Laws, its more or less uniform character and its roughly acceptable suyport of documentation yields us great. benefit At the same timji, the steady development of our work has led us by now to realize also the limitations of thie'system. Under the statistical system, the bulk of the data roaches the Statistical Office though the lower /local/ statistic bodies or the operative directive 'bodies in pyramid-like form /the higher the level, the more . cummarized the result/1 finaliy summed 'up by Ministries or: Administra- tive Units. Thus the Statistical Office, except its direct collection which represents a considorably1 smaller pa:* of all data available, does not possess individual data. This fact greatly hampers the use of one of thii most particular methods of Statistics, i.e., that by sum- marizing the statistical multitude in diffurent groupings different processes cat be analysed. Our work is also llmited by the. fac.t that, ,partly as a result of our planning and controlling work practised hitherto, we are inclined to, follow up every process in its complexity. Consequently our accounts ardi almost fun-scope and thus inVolve great Material? efforts and, from the point of view of them who are rendering .the data, they re- present a disproportionate., builden. If, however)) in justified cases we content ourselves with,ch4racterising processes without aiming at the preddse value of sUchoprildessds, we could observe some 'problems in a more .detailed manner, quicker and at smaller expenses. ' On ground of this perception, we now are endeavouring to develop our 'work. While rdtaining the global and wide possibilities secured by the sys- tem of state accounting, at the same time we wish td apply more fre- quently than hitherto the methods of single or rarely effected de- tailed collections within a narrow field. 0 could offer a scope for constant improvement but aleo their ueeq At pre3ent, in our analynee and informatory work the possibilities off,)red by the accounting system are often only partly exploited. Though it may often be due to financial reasons, it is obvious that, taking economy as a whole, the not full utilization of data oollected with great material sacrifices cannot be deemed econOmioal. We are facing a number of difficulties not only as far as the right valuation of the main intentions of the plan, but also when establish- ing the numerical targets. The method of planning, as referte4 to in my introductory remarks, is changing. Accordingly the notions, groupings, detailudness used in the plan change to a certain extent.. Since statistics do not tolerate frequent changes, the tasks of steadily representing development and measuring plan-fulfilment often conflict. The frequent alteration of plans also aggravates the numerical measuring of plan-fulfilment. Summing up, we think to be approaching the core of our task. For statisticians the main problem of measuring plan-fulfilment both in oue- country and in all other is that beside informing about the numbers of plan-fulfilment,they should value plan-fulfilment, analyse it:: effect also in connection with some part-fields, primarily how- evr the effect of plan-fulfilment Of the main connections of economic and social life. 00 Of course, it is not Only the field of statistical data 'themselves that I4J4 14 qiijrw&i,f1L.,at.ctetae ' P. -t.?,02,71.42isignz. r Mfg wor't.rotfroont$Ar Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ?-Z0008000? Onl?170 I- 0- I- ed CI 1-`v'l 0 O/0/O eseeiej .101. panaiddv /Woo pazwues - 'Jed pawssepaa , ? ????????. ? .? ? ? ???? ???????? ??? ? n???? .? ? 4??? ?????^ 44 ?????4 ? ????????????. 44' :4 '? m I - . - ? I ? a) i ?,,I . 4?11410?48???????14 ? ??f????????Z ????????????? ??? i.e. ? .? ??? ???????? ??? ?? Or 0.4. ?? 4, . 1 Mt SIMIMINIP 14 ....??? Mkt I .??????????????? ??????????? ????? M.N.*. Wm ???????????????????po.......444 1?111141;st .11?????????? *I ? us .c1 r ? 'I 0' P.) 1-j. Hit (1) (D 0 W . trJ , - ,? 0 41 0 0'4 CD 0 e.44 0 . -' *LI) 01 ti.ii:cAroi?l,..1,.,; ,14,1 ciirii_ j, I.:7 : : :1 ' il'Y' l?li ati I 14 i!. 1,44 Cl) H' )-- 40 *1 t-ri M r.,171.1 ci. (:11,,.11,,,.?.4, 5.),H. P. 46 mi,k4)4 4 o .. CY 'Li Itt)m' 9, o.lt.:4,,,, i --i iril !,1....$ i . a .....113" , i. ','_ 4 1....fL) ,,..4 ....4 ., w,),.., ,e,?,, ,4 t,r44, ' : -)C1)M\ 11, kkeq: -? . ..:.; 1._,/ 1.4.1 , 011,4: ,,.. ?t?t: till, 'Pi ' sa), .r...,00..t),, c4. etp,i)0 ill l'ilr.-, '11.1 ,:-I; ciI-1 -ico It ,:. o-i siut `,.)1-1',,I.i,P4 r, 0 ft rt) 0. Pk' pr'o ri? 0 aro porsons of 14 .y.:a.:s Of aqe and ye.,.no:rsr. This ritlin generation is gradually maturing ICI prOvide new r000nstruction of th,Jir country. B) Methodv of the 1953 Census rr'edo ! 0 ? ,uvo .The census of 1953 :adopted a per- son's: ut3ual abodo or hi r4 borne as the basis of enumeration, thus do., do juro popnlation. When a person lowco hin home temporar- iv,and :Jravelc .either on official dutios or for businuss, IV) is still waTlwrated w "C.u. homo address" When ho lewes his.sual abode for 1.31!:novra parpooes, and absent from horn,s not more than 6 months,, .he onumutc.d rA 11:1.s home. When hu .join3 a government organ, is en74std, in no .t.tmy, onterr a factory or .a school, he ordinarily has. j 11W ..abode) rjid.vi.o Too i.aumt;ratel. .thee. In .oraor to .dimini6h errors omirlsien, he is .onumerat,Jd at r.ot mp:!;'e than ono abode. )1.11'n ropulio% Tn-eminently ayriculfural and perhaps ?more 06,6,4, Of inhabtants residing in rural areas, the population J.,si admittedly &lo and Its movement slight, so the de jure basis re- bhh brue ,ilturc of ho.' population, P) Tho How: The census hour is fixed ab the 24th hour v), 1SW. rYe::1 6')rrvoponels to the 20th day, the 5th moon, of i1e3nako 1,7c.;r ,rw calendar. Tho date is m. the mldst of the p;.anting season in nic.ccu:Itijre. It is chosen to expedite the co1loc- iou populaion (:.L.ta for the electioll of the peoples represnnta- ivc18 7..oc,7?1 :?eoplo's Congrosues which is drawing near. June 30 C! the estimation of the midyear popu1ation4 the P.optAa.t:;:or .f: ict is enumerated some days before *June 30, births, p(47non1 ontering-the:dintrict Of marria30 or .4 immigration are 0,aac,ia to the 1-Jtall ana deaths, 1.1.w5on:1 leaving the diptriot by marriage or by emigration are ?subtheted from thi tott1 Likowiool, if the:enumua?a. tion of a distrint taktin place aftw,7 Juno Y), bithc, persona enterine T41-1c3 0,intviot by marriage or by immigration are not onvmeratod; and deaths, perwono 1Qaving tho district by ma,vriaue or by emicration are 3) Prv*a:ratory 'hork beforo (onou:)-talting a) TJ Q Taining o:C no7A stnfr and Statistical Comyaterst.. Accrain,7', to the Centrnl Elontion Committeo, tho training of the :ield wovItern and FAatilt:i,cim: shou7,d be'entrurAod to thu provinces to suit no local noodn. Varour typoo of worker are needed including slApervinx,s, enumerators, recovders, and statimtical semputers. The training.collrno Cor general upervision roquires throe days and that for ()numeration, election and ntatistica:, complAstion requires seven days. Data fur itoltruction ih thc training oourse aro included in the material Mr 't)ublicity an oulined in the 'Thllowino. section. The whoe workinc fo:70c tho entim oountvy oe;?rines more than 2.5 million persons ineluding enumoctJ6or, recorders, 6tatistica1 compute, but without cpuntinp; the "otivl,stz" who ce:'?ve voluntarily and whc) aro Thirly n&torou n a1.com:nnuitios. ? b) Pub],: it; Opir T loL41. par:ty organization undertahes the general supervir!ion of c;onsus-aking and election as a phase 'of political activity and utarto by olTantzing publicty campaigns. U;,lor,tho direction o2 the pat7;Leac'n cloct,ion precinct organiz.ea an election nommItteo which ocnducts publiCity camp'aigns. In the village or in eoreet of a city, the wol.k lc; ont::Loted tp the publicit'y, cquad. In 1,10 facto,, rain, or constiuctionamp, publicity ic under iiC dirction of thr local riarty uni.6. Data fo:L. publicity include pnrt7 policy and .pvernment regulations on the 'envmeistion and re- criati.cn of' population and oloon) st:ch 'as the Election Law, Re- gulations ,thr) Enumoration ana-Roe;istrabion of Population', and In- c:Aru,..Itiens Tot. tho Populat'ion' Questionnaire. Publicity' work unila17 ar,J "acti,stu". of t'n'o-').oeality who .make use of .the loisur6 hours in the 'facto'IT on t:ho *ram by naking calls, holding... uonvorns, inforal talks, diuctssion groups and meetings. In the oit'ios'l the dioplay of cioan &nd placar(M., the distribution ,of . pamph1et!1,' and the tl:e of the moion pictu:n ihow are added features. 4) 1":_le Procedure of Consus-takir(i: ?a)Ixf5erimental Work, Experimenta work was first initiated in Fc Chon2; Hie, Linotn 2vc/wi.noo, and Li Chcnc Hien, Shangtung ProvineJ, The former ox:perimont whichwao Started in May 1953 stressed the training of local ttA.ents for filling-out the population questionnaire and.otheruchniGal work n connection with the census by. selecting person from every 500 persons in the ocal: Topulation. In June, t the Li Cheng enerment demonstrated thectical application- of 'the priilo ccnouJ-1king aivJ elcotLon proceed hand inliand'With ? farming in?he locality, As a rerun OP iiot.lar discUsSien and:With the Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 approval of the looal farmera, an irrigation ditch waa dug whioh proved to be the moat urgent welearo =mare of thu whole community. This was in sharp oontraat with a aimilar project in 1952 which waa propoeed by the local bureaucracy but without the peoplea ?ancient and was doomed to failure. b) Direct Enumerationes Report at the Registration Depots In accordance with the direetiona of the Central People's Government, the chief method of tho enumeration and regiatration of population consists of the report by thu family heads (Form A) at the local re- gistration depot. At each election precinct there is a depot to which each family head goes to report the persons in his family with thu particulars of eaoh person specified in the population questionnaire. With regard to public households (Form B), such as government organs, factories, schools and minuet depots nre also established to which individuals go to report. The individuals are organized into groups under the leadership of the appropriate departrxint chiefs. Boatmen and workers ofswater transport who work and live on the boats or waterways report and, register at appropriate depots on the boats or ashore. A sped4a1 agent visits persons who for various reasons can not go to the. registration depots and report themeolves, such as old people, patients, persons on leave, those who can not leave their posts when on duty (police men at the government offices or factories), and per- sons who live in the out-of-way regions too far away from the registra- tion depots. Out of a total of '601,938,035 persons as returned from the census of 1953, fully 574,205,095 persons were through direct enumeration as briefly discussed above. . a) ,Indirect Calculations and Estimates The Regulations on the Enumer.ationand Registration of Population provides (Art. 17) that th outlyi.ng regions and in places where the minority peoples live, modifications may be necessary if local conditions require. In these areas, the enumeration and registration of population may, at the discretion of the local government, adopt indirect measures such as through ,the 'consultation. of the headmen, or through the meetings of old, men, women and the general public. By and large, in these places there is no direct election of the people's representatives, hence 'there is ne direct enumeration and registration of population. , Indirect calculations and estimates are also applied'in the following oases: the .overseas Chinese, Chinese persons in diplomatic and con- sular services abroad, Chinese students in foreign countries, and the population of Taiwan province. Out of the total of 601,938,035 persons from the ctmsus of 1953, no less than 270732,095 persons were through indirect means such as cal- ulations and estimates. These include the overseas Chinese and Irises students abroad (11,743 320 persons), the residents in the Declassified in Part outlying areas including tho minority peoples (80397,477 persons Taiwan province (7,591,298 persons) which is not yet liberated. and C) Th Q Principal Items of tho Census 1) Sex Ratio Up to the year of the liberation in 1949, the pre- ponderance of males over females in Chinese population was well-known. During the Kuomintang reactionary period, unusually high sex. ratios. were frequently a:oportea: these woro chiefly soon in the population estimates of questionable reliability. Towards the-closing days Of . the Kuomintang regime, experimental censuses of liNited areas were taken from time to timo by using modern techniques of fairly high dependability. The sex ratios in these hsien censuses are shown in Table 1, in which the highest sex ratio le 129,4 an in Chang Lu of Fukien province, .In Table 2, the sex mtie of the population of new China is compared with that of 15 other nations. row China is reported to have the highest sox ratio, i.e. 107.7, and Democratic Republic of Germany has the lowest, i.o. 74.3 The figure for new China is considerably lower than other figures in the hsion censuses as given in Table 1. Several factors may be mentioned: Pirut, obnoxious social habits such as infanticide and the discrimination against female children by the parents resulting in excessive mortality among young female children are fast disappearing especially since the establishment of the People's Republic in 1949. Secondly, the omissions of children and especially female children which were common in the Haien censuses were minimized in.the national census of 1953. Though in auw China, the sex ratio , for all ages is still high (107.7) as compared with 15 other nations (liable 2), it is much lower than a number of the hoien censuses in old China (Table 1), especially Chang Lu (129.4) in Fukien, Lan Hsi (125.3) in Chekiang, Chu Yung (116.6) and Kiang Ying (112.1) in Kiangsu. In Table 2, India (105.6) and Canada (102.5) have relatively high sex ratios, In Australia (100.4) Brazil (99.3), Sweden (99.3), Nether- lands (99.3) and the United States (98.7) the ratios for all ages are about even between the sexes. Unlike those nations, England and Wales (92.6) and France (92.2) have shown lower sex ratios. Two extreme cases are noted: in Federal Republic of Germany (88.8) and Democratic Re- public of Germany (74.3) the unusually low sex ratios are in a large measure due to the evil effects of the second World War, which in each area killed off an immense number of the males in the prime of their lives. 2) Age Composition In Old China, the age composition of the 8 hsien censuses is shown in Table 3. Infants of the zeroage group all occupy a relatively high percentage in the total population, as 4.94% in the Kunming Lake Region, Yunnan. During the period of China's re- sistance war against Japan, the Kunming Lake Region attracted a large number of the middle-aged immigrants with their families from other .provinces. Besides, the Region included the urban population of a fairly large city. These factors were responsible for the unusually high birth rate of the Region. - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R0013nnoRnnn7_q ?f'.1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 6 {-,1 1.9? ()ensue of new China, the infents of the seroegge group oon- 'A.tvi,teJ 34 of the total population (Table 4). This ie considerably %ower tIvan tbo figur..N for the Kunming. Lake Region as shown in Table 3. IL Table 41 it lo shown that Brazil (3,7) China (3.3) and India(.2%) 1,1-ie rather eimilar percentages for the zero-age groups those countriee el have high birth rate. In the name table, other natione which,havo e,lightly lower swrcentageo of the zero-age group are Yugoslavia (2.0) Reypt (2,71/0), Thee? two eountriee also have relatively high birth roles. A gliou4, of oountries have percentagee of the zero-age. group .11 ovor 20()? but their birth rat,oP are not high, such as Au8tra- '4a (24) the United 2tates (24), Czechoolovakia (2.14M and Japan ahu age composition for all ago group e in Sweden and England (1 Walee in etrilangly similar: both natione have low birth rates, ;lave normal miadle-age oup, and, have relatively large number of the, people. In France, Australia and the 'United States, the popula- tions are gradually ageing, as in these oountries the people of 65 ;rears of ago and over now constitute 12.1%, 8.6% and 8.50 respectively. the other hanO, nina's population ie rather yOung, for. according Sundbaerg'o ago divisione she belongs to the Stationary-Progressive ,pe as in China the 0-14 year of age group ;Lilly occupies 36.0% of the total population. These young people are soon maturing to shoulder '1.1c) heavy responcibilities of developing industry, commerce, cOmmunica- ,one and agriture, which China urgently needs in her expanding 7oaram of eocialiot :reconstruction. ' By contrast, in certain other edun.tries, the 0-14 year of age group occupy quite low percentages in t!heir populations, such as Federal Republic of Germany (224), England and 'ilales (22.5%), '2rance (23.3%), Swedan (23.7%), and Czechoslovakia: (24.6%) 3) . Now China's constitution stiputes (Art. 3) that in,her population are equal, and that there shall be nn disnrimination or oppression of any, nationality, against any other. Othor si3.nific4nt provisionsistate.that it the regions where the minor- 'y poplc live, there a1l be autonomous areas of various levels and lstablish self-governing machinbry tu suit local needs. In these areas iIOr the eon(14_tions aro appropriate, the.re shall be people's congresses. por5o.,1 oZ 10 yr:6,re of age may decide hit, natiotality: and with re- Rard to a minor, the qu'estion may be decided by his parents. in flow China, 'as fkle nationalities are now equal, the minority peoples 1.r. a nambo2, QC vogions 2retny report themselves as members of thp ninority peoples, such as the Chang in Lung Lit, Kwangsi; the Yi in W,Ln Nu, 1.:o:1,.ohow; or the Wigur in Ah To Shi, Sinkiang. Before the libeliation under the oppression of the Han nationality, certain members of Vile minority peoplo did not din6lose ,their ethnic origins, but during 2Ylio cenous their Preuly report their true nationalities to the People .?!espongible for consus--baking. enumerating population, the.,dejure principle is followed ,throughout. ? amrs the nomads, they arc registered at the last administrative. ' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? NW unit to whioh they belong. In certain outlying regions there is no direot election of the people'e repreeentativen by the voters, such an certain nationalities in Tibet, Sikang and Sinkiang. Amona those nationalities, the total popdlation is ascertained by the local government which summons the headmen of the nationalities under its jurisdiction to make an estimate of their na- tionals. This is the basis on which the number of the people's re- presentatives to the national People's Congreee is apportioned. At the conclusion of the 1953 census, the minority peoples sent 150 represents* tivea to the national People's Congress in Peking. This roughly re- presents one seventh of the total representatives in that body, but the apportioned number is beliovea to be much,larger than the percentage which the minority peoples actually occupy in the totalipopulation of the' country. According to the census of 1953, there were 35,320,360 persons belonging to the minority peoplee, This represents 6.06% of the country's total population. The great majority of the minority peoples live among the Han nationality gald are enumerated and registered simultaneously with the Han nationality. In addition, there are the inhabitants of the outlying ares, and regions, where no direct election of the people's representatives took place. These areas have 8,3971477 persons, of whom a considerable number belongs to the minority peoples. ? The census of 1953 enumerated over 40 nationalities for the whole country,' of, the IHan nationality ,constituting 93.94% of the total. Among the minority peoples. there were 10 nationalities, each numbering over one ,million persons. They are, in numerical descending order,, the Chang, the Wigur, the Mohammedan,, the Yi, 'the Tibetan, the Miao, the Manohu, the Mongolian, the Puyi, ad the Chosen. T) An Appraisal of the 1953 Census a , 4 , It should be admitted'that the results of the 1953'census are quite:: trustworthy. This 16, in the writer's opinion-, due' to .01e application of themedern scientific technique and peoples eagerness for the undertalxing.' 'The combination ,of these two factors expldins;.in,large measure, the success Of the 1953 census.. The chief reasono may be. briefly.diseussed as Sqllows: 1) Because the purposes of the ceAsuo are for the welfare of the people, so the people heartily support the undertaking and happily' participate in it. .Since the liberation, the position of the people has undergone fundamental changes--rising As it does from servitude to mastership--and they realistically feel that the country now belongs to them. They clearly understand that the census prepares fbr the subsequent elections, and that by exercising the democratic rights through'ballotting, they could bring about socialist reconstruction in economic and cultural aspects. This is radically different from the historical past when the reactionary ruling class for the purpose of'imposinc taxes, enlisting soldiers, or enforoing the Pao Chia system, collected population data to exploit the people. Under these' 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ?f'.1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 6 {-,1 1.9? ()ensue of new China, the infents of the seroegge group oon- 'A.tvi,teJ 34 of the total population (Table 4). This ie considerably %ower tIvan tbo figur..N for the Kunming. Lake Region as shown in Table 3. IL Table 41 it lo shown that Brazil (3,7) China (3.3) and India(.2%) 1,1-ie rather eimilar percentages for the zero-age groups those countriee el have high birth rate. In the name table, other natione which,havo e,lightly lower swrcentageo of the zero-age group are Yugoslavia (2.0) Reypt (2,71/0), Thee? two eountriee also have relatively high birth roles. A gliou4, of oountries have percentagee of the zero-age. group .11 ovor 20()? but their birth rat,oP are not high, such as Au8tra- '4a (24) the United 2tates (24), Czechoolovakia (2.14M and Japan ahu age composition for all ago group e in Sweden and England (1 Walee in etrilangly similar: both natione have low birth rates, ;lave normal miadle-age oup, and, have relatively large number of the, people. In France, Australia and the 'United States, the popula- tions are gradually ageing, as in these oountries the people of 65 ;rears of ago and over now constitute 12.1%, 8.6% and 8.50 respectively. the other hanO, nina's population ie rather yOung, for. according Sundbaerg'o ago divisione she belongs to the Stationary-Progressive ,pe as in China the 0-14 year of age group ;Lilly occupies 36.0% of the total population. These young people are soon maturing to shoulder '1.1c) heavy responcibilities of developing industry, commerce, cOmmunica- ,one and agriture, which China urgently needs in her expanding 7oaram of eocialiot :reconstruction. ' By contrast, in certain other edun.tries, the 0-14 year of age group occupy quite low percentages in t!heir populations, such as Federal Republic of Germany (224), England and 'ilales (22.5%), '2rance (23.3%), Swedan (23.7%), and Czechoslovakia: (24.6%) 3) . Now China's constitution stiputes (Art. 3) that in,her population are equal, and that there shall be nn disnrimination or oppression of any, nationality, against any other. Othor si3.nific4nt provisionsistate.that it the regions where the minor- 'y poplc live, there a1l be autonomous areas of various levels and lstablish self-governing machinbry tu suit local needs. In these areas iIOr the eon(14_tions aro appropriate, the.re shall be people's congresses. por5o.,1 oZ 10 yr:6,re of age may decide hit, natiotality: and with re- Rard to a minor, the qu'estion may be decided by his parents. in flow China, 'as fkle nationalities are now equal, the minority peoples 1.r. a nambo2, QC vogions 2retny report themselves as members of thp ninority peoples, such as the Chang in Lung Lit, Kwangsi; the Yi in W,Ln Nu, 1.:o:1,.ohow; or the Wigur in Ah To Shi, Sinkiang. Before the libeliation under the oppression of the Han nationality, certain members of Vile minority peoplo did not din6lose ,their ethnic origins, but during 2Ylio cenous their Preuly report their true nationalities to the People .?!espongible for consus--baking. enumerating population, the.,dejure principle is followed ,throughout. ? amrs the nomads, they arc registered at the last administrative. ' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? NW unit to whioh they belong. In certain outlying regions there is no direot election of the people'e repreeentativen by the voters, such an certain nationalities in Tibet, Sikang and Sinkiang. Amona those nationalities, the total popdlation is ascertained by the local government which summons the headmen of the nationalities under its jurisdiction to make an estimate of their na- tionals. This is the basis on which the number of the people's re- presentatives to the national People's Congreee is apportioned. At the conclusion of the 1953 census, the minority peoples sent 150 represents* tivea to the national People's Congress in Peking. This roughly re- presents one seventh of the total representatives in that body, but the apportioned number is beliovea to be much,larger than the percentage which the minority peoples actually occupy in the totalipopulation of the' country. According to the census of 1953, there were 35,320,360 persons belonging to the minority peoplee, This represents 6.06% of the country's total population. The great majority of the minority peoples live among the Han nationality gald are enumerated and registered simultaneously with the Han nationality. In addition, there are the inhabitants of the outlying ares, and regions, where no direct election of the people's representatives took place. These areas have 8,3971477 persons, of whom a considerable number belongs to the minority peoples. ? The census of 1953 enumerated over 40 nationalities for the whole country,' of, the IHan nationality ,constituting 93.94% of the total. Among the minority peoples. there were 10 nationalities, each numbering over one ,million persons. They are, in numerical descending order,, the Chang, the Wigur, the Mohammedan,, the Yi, 'the Tibetan, the Miao, the Manohu, the Mongolian, the Puyi, ad the Chosen. T) An Appraisal of the 1953 Census a , 4 , It should be admitted'that the results of the 1953'census are quite:: trustworthy. This 16, in the writer's opinion-, due' to .01e application of themedern scientific technique and peoples eagerness for the undertalxing.' 'The combination ,of these two factors expldins;.in,large measure, the success Of the 1953 census.. The chief reasono may be. briefly.diseussed as Sqllows: 1) Because the purposes of the ceAsuo are for the welfare of the people, so the people heartily support the undertaking and happily' participate in it. .Since the liberation, the position of the people has undergone fundamental changes--rising As it does from servitude to mastership--and they realistically feel that the country now belongs to them. They clearly understand that the census prepares fbr the subsequent elections, and that by exercising the democratic rights through'ballotting, they could bring about socialist reconstruction in economic and cultural aspects. This is radically different from the historical past when the reactionary ruling class for the purpose of'imposinc taxes, enlisting soldiers, or enforoing the Pao Chia system, collected population data to exploit the people. Under these' 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A proved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 all power belono t1D the people who exeroime thvir political power through the local People's Congressee and the national PeOpleo Con- grease in Peking. The election of the former, up to the hien level, is directly by thooe who are 10 yeare of age and over and who are qualified to vote. From the hellion and upwarao, the election of the people'e repreeentatives to tho People's Congrean io by the People's Congrese immediately below. The administrative units+ of direct elec- .tion number 214,798 in the whole country. The chief characteristics of the People's Democracy are the universal exerciee of the voting privilege by the people and the democratic Aistribution, of the repreeentatives among the social groups, as exempli- fied in the People's Congress in PekinG pity. The election commenced in December 1953 and completed in March 1954, in which th: voters in the city wardc,constitv,00 fully 9f1.2:'Z of those who are registered and qualified.to,yotof and in the suburbs the purcentaoe is only slightly lower, i.e. 95.2t/). In the city, the 7 wards elected a total of 1,200 representatives . distributing among the followine social groups: laborers 32.0, street residents (family members of laborers and employees, independent work- men and pedlers) 204, employees in royernment offices and State enter- prises 15.7$1 educationists and members of the medical profession 15.2%, workers in private induatrie and businesses 9.0, workers of the co- operative unions 3.0%, religious workers 1.67, engineers and technicians 1.4/0. these people's representatives, females constituted 26.7%, and the representatives from the minority peoples occupied 10.0Y0. Generally speaking, the election of the people's representatives is on the basis of population. Thus, starting from the lowest administra- tive unit which elects peoples ,representatives, the hsiang with vary- ing populations may elect from 15 to 35 representatives, and the national People'b. Congress, the highest unitt.has,1,.200 representatives. But there are also limitations and adjUstments, such as the. maximum number Is of representatives which a hsiang may elect to a hsien s 3. Also.; the population Of Ilinghsia province is just over 900,000, but is en- titled to elect 5 representatives to the national People"s,Congress. In the rural communities, every 800,000 persons may elect a representa- tive, but in the cities where laborers usually concentrate, a popula- tion of 100,000 is sufficient to elect a representative to the national Pepple's Congress.' 2) The Census and National Reconstruction a) Socialist Industrialization, Employment, and Workers' Plane of Living Since 1953, China has begun economic reconstruction on a fairly large scale. This necessitates a big amount of capital investment and a large number of workmen, The census furnishes reliable data on the. labor force, and also on production and on consumption. New China has ever been confronted with considerable unemployment which was handed over: from the old regime. On the other hand, a considerable n1,1:jo 01; 1/;?;Tlw vuaohin6' thc? wQrkin .(-1g. .Q40 Year must find employment, +uconolin.t,hom to 'bosom membera of the economidally aotive popular, tion, %Tridloymtivi oxtondine as 'Ow procram sooialiot iationc%-pr,n4o. At the ena of 1949, n'oout 0 million laborere and employ- eee,wem employed in our national economy. In 19561 thoix number was thureumed to movo than 24 millione: amon theve there were about 3 million ciapal:xtu and om.ern of th privatoJ-entorprscs who4 after going throuu ?tho? procesaQs of social:!.EC.; tral)oformation, have joined . tho kc:o outurp anl. Joint ontovprilo empLoyee, together' with tho E;sate othployouo in s'ural Wit:1::.4 7 yeari) ?ww China has succo:,ofully fourel omplvment fo.: 13 millton pormono, or about 1.8 porsoro 2ur ThiF) rnteof expan7tion is unprocodentod in Chno Lho aiy of thr) waemployed persona of th cAA iivs.':In3 up to thQ prooent fouaa,nuitabl,o omploycnt. The tnuicn C nomI)loymen hu1:3 not only 'ogin gradually cased by .nr1i a1. openine:p in .;11c1 ns ubovu r:.kutc,hcd but also by cret- ir emp3oyment in the rural rogions, especially through t1v3 eo.orivo mo7(;:iLt in t4grioultIre. From now o..6 for a comparative- ly l'clacer increaoine opportuni.Ues for employment may be found in rw:al Aricle 59 of the Draft Regulations on. Agricultural Development for China (1955-67) stipulates .that aside from finding emploori:. in the cities, the unemployed ,ore encouvaged to .go to the subv.vbH fore:. n Ind h:1.11 coUntrioc; tl ::ind work in agrioillblraLlutr(4 lands, fishing and othc!.ts si.lbsidiary occupations. LLoo, thv L7e to bc engaged in technical, educational, cultural crd aotivifio;1 in no fal%ing regiont cAaii:Jion of emloyment together with Lhtl redt-ition of unemployment arc .4.conrin:.() iuv th(D incrove in the plane of i?' :i among the 1,bort:)rr, ara c,:n.oyeec. Thus, the averAgJ nprual 'ages of the workmen (..n';)::eMplol:erl have 11-.creased?from'446 yuan Chinese people's cUrrenCyl in 1954 r.) '61C yan in 1956, or an increase .of.aboa ')7,a/0 in 4.Y004:00 107),1 of tonumption 104 ?.;ho wurkmen and .empIoyoes hao. cnntinuomlly. Calcultd on ti:_ei) basis of the 1952 .11c):1-kors? and s-nployoes coyxumod alliounted to about 2.30.0. przcn in 1936 nis amount waS increased .to 167.7 yuan in 19524. to 179.9 yuan in 195, and to 1998. yuan in. 1956. The level of consumption in 1956 was thus 19.O5; higher than in 1952 and 54.0% hicr in 1936t b) Land.11ch:ormn and 0o-operatl.on in A(4ricultuxo In old China, lend.owllerThi and lane tenure was unjustly held by a limited number of lan1 arEtcoxatus. Though poor farmers and farm laborers constituted over 90,0,11 pi tho total agricultural population, they occupied only. 2010-..-33C/0 of the land. On the other hand, land owners and rich far=s, though plmqrically leis than 10.6ib, actually possessed no lepo th,:vn 70.0--CC.Qd of the tota).Jand area,in,the country. Thus, the , til1:Dr8 of the. soil were either landless' orcil.ped insuffici3nt land Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A ?proved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01n4nPnn1gnnnprInno 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 wr,ich they reultivated. They tolled all their livee, but were generally uriable to 'olrienip ()rough food and olothing to maintain a eatiotaotory otendard of living; %der the Ohinone'Oemmuniot Party, land reforme wore basically oarried oet J.n c w.%ole ooulatry, which reeu:ted in the liquidation of the land- eeminie.elaer, and ln the reedietribution of aand among tho oultivators. In the countryuide) fundamental ehangee riffootinee thu oocial elapses takten pce es depieted in Teb1e 5. Land reformo were earried out in 21. provineee ai; varioue datee, but wuro completed towards the end? of 1253. Botwoen.that aato and the ?lose of 1954, poor farmers and farm iteerere 0,eee'ivered frow. 57610 to 29.0/01 and middle olaes farmore increas- frele 35,C o Ir the came period, the deorease of rich far- mers wan insignificant a reduction from 3.6/) to 24 only. Again, the '2'0:max. mcl lords were also hown in .the table, for althouelh they were liquidaed bu trwy etill retained the etieema cf their ?lass, as by ee).guation it eould rewlire 5 years for them to lope their class ;rletue C71,the 1)asie tie land reZorms, the Chinese Communist Party and the 2e'ople's torerrelent have launched the co-operative movement among the fte'aorc, whieh gained ?Treat momentum in 1955 and reached its climax in 1.956. In June, 1956, qmong 120 million farming families no less than 710 r;illioe *unileloo ;ioinee the co-operative movement constituting el. 1-f!) of the totaleflerming,population They have thus become collective Re.rmero, Thi c prevents them from differentiating into rich farmers on the eno hand Ind poor farmers en the other, as in the old days. Poverty ir, deeisi.rely diminishoi, The level of ecneumption waa 72.8 yuan per farmer in 1952 which was raeel to- 84,2 an 1,11 1956, :or ar increase of 15.7%. lelforms espeeially the rural co-operative movement have great- 1..",stimula4eed acricultural production. From 1952 to 1956, a total of 02000 minion kilogram of food grains were produced, but between :1932 are: 191 .ho porice.1 of agricultural wrosperiby in old China, only 6501000 million kilogemme of food grains were produced. In 1956, new ,Chia oelorirenc:d tho severest natural...calamities since the time of eiberation, L.et 'who annual productrion of food grains amounted to 182,500 nillion kilogram, or 7,700 million kilograms larger than 1955. The, of :Me ore-operative eysilem is thus beyond doubt. "e';? %o peceie'; thed the product4.on of the food grains is increasing at a ,facer rate than population Thus, between 1949 and 1956, popula- Von lieeree'eed, on3e. 15.e/A whereas food grains increased 71.* However, eeeenved erltu. ee eject! of _copulation, China has a relatively smaller area of the deltivated land averaging about one fifth hectare of the eutivae,d land rer farmer. The fcod grains available for annual con- frimeLleon' is cradeany ivereaeing: from 270 kilograms per capita in P-7!32 o 294 1;i:".oeeeaele per capieba ir. 1956 Compared with a number of :eee!eet ehr C'eineso figure is still considered low. 4,;? 47144'P144.14 M. WPM " 4,1.4104 pi fro arer.o4.....,.$1 rrtwer...-ft,r,eca ? 0 Education and Health ? Ao oompaQt with the Kuomintang regime, education and health measure have faster growth in new China. Between 1949 and 1956, about 32 million il1itor4top gained certain amount of education, which roduoed illiteracy conaidilably (before the liberation, illiteracy wao ,high ao 90.0% of the total.. population.) In 1946, the record year under the old regime, there were 50 primary school pupils per 1000 population who were ectually attending Po'hoolo; but in 1952 this figure was raised to 07.4. Retween 1952 and 1955, when China's population increase'd 6.95, th,r) pupils in the primary schools increased 3.960. In 1946, the students atteeding the eucondrery schools amounted to 4 per 1,000 population, but this number was increened to 5.5 per 1,000 popula- tion, and it was further raised to 7.3 per 1,000 population in 1955. In 1947, the students, in thu colleges and uneversities affieuntea to 3 per 10,000 population, but this was increased to 3.4 per 10,000 popula- tion in,1952 end to 4.8 per 10,000 population in 1955. With the increase of population there have been.eorresponding increases of the physicians and hospctal beds. In 1954, there was one physician. per 1,400 population, and one hospital bed per 2,900 population. In 1955, although more than 10 million persons have boon added to the total as compared with 1954, but practically the same .ratios as above- mentioned have been maintained. Regarding the health protection for the people, noteworthy improvements are also discernible. Small pox, cholera and plague have been basically unger.control. The control is gradually extending to the other. infectious and communicable diseases, such as: i) Schistosomiasis: This was once prevalent in the rice fields in 12 provinces, but is receiving increasing medical attention in recent years. In 1956 alone, more than 400,000 patients were cured, and plans are under way to extinguish the dreadful disease in 7 years. ? ii) Malaria: 38 preventive stations have been established not only to'cure malaria patients but also to prevent the spread of the' disease. iii) Kala-azar; From 1949 to 1956, a total of 600,000 kala-azar patients. have returned to normal health, and the medical profession. isconfidently looking to,the date Lor the total extinction of the disease in 1960. . iv) Tuberculosis: For the prevention of tuberculosis, all large cities have opened hospitals and tanitoriume. In Peking, the tuber- culosis hospital has 6,000 beds which is a sevenfold increase since 1949 resulting the great reduction of the specific death rate from tuberculosis ,If the specific death rate from tuberculosis, for 1949 were taken at 100, that for 1956 was reduced to 28. assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043Ron1mnnRnnno_-: Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 F) The .Coneue and Demographic Reeearch e.. .1) A Pre1iminavy12tudy of PoPulatton Ohanf!e in. Rural Areae(1952.1953) 1951 to 1954 the ro havebeen a number of pie surveys on popula- tion change in diTferent parts of China. 'Aemeg these, 16 surveys of fairly high aocuraoy have been hereunder reviewed, whioh reflected Repeats of the demographic situation in 1952-1953, ate portrayed in Table 6. .Theae local inveetigations covered a total of 1,310421 per. eons in 16 hsien in. 7 provincqs., In some calees, the entire hsien is covered which ?includes the hsion oent,er, the village town, the lesiang and the village. In other casee, only portions of tile hsion.are in- cluded. These surveys essentially deal with the rural populationo, but not the city populations. More .specifically, birth rates in these 16 hsien have exhibites rather: largo variations. Lokiang in Szechuan ht e the higheet rate or 52.8, and Lichuan in Shensi has the lowest rate or 26,1. In 7 hsien, the birth rate is over 40.0. Regarding the death rate, Lokiang in Szechuan has the highest rate or 24.0, and Lichuan in Shensi has the lowest rate or 13.4. In 0 localities the death rate is over 20.0. Natural increase of population also shows variations. Lokiang in Szechuan has the highest natural increase or 28.8, and Lichuan in Shensi has the aowest or 12,T. In 10 hsien, natural increase is over 20.0 per 1,000 population per year. For 16 hsien the vital rates arithmetic mean, computed as 21.0; and natural increase, have been, on the basis of the weighted follows: birth rate, 41.6; death rate, 20.6 per 1,000 population. In comparison with the 16 hsien, some'rural regionswhiOh have richer agricultural lands and better harvests should have higher birth rates, other areas of poorer agriculture including the habitats of the minority peoples should have lower birth rates. H Since the first yuar of the People's Republic 1949, ,death rates have generally been declining. New China is laying greater and greater stress on public health and personal hygiene, or the more effective control of epidemic and endemic diseases, and on the substantial re- ductionlof infants'and children's diseases (such as neo-natal tetanus and measles). As compared with the decade immediately before the time of liberation, ner China's'birth rate is gradually increasing, her death rate ha e shown marked decrease, resulting in a substantial natural increase of Popula- tion every year. This situation roughly indicates the first phase, of the "demographic revolution" in which the high birth rate is accompanied by a relatively low death rate which results in a compara- tively high natural increase of population. China 0-day faces an appreciably different,situation than at the eid of the Kuomintang reactionary .peried. At that time, the vital rate's might be estimated as follows, birth rate, 361 death rate, 29; natural increase 7 per 1,000 population. x) As oomWarsopi with the vital rates of new China, old China's birth rate was lower, death rate wae higher, and natural inoreaee coneiderably lower. New China's vital ?Wes indi. oate a vigorous state of afhire purpeting to a growing popurai'ion help- ful for socialist reconstruction of the nation. 2) The Movement of Population a) The Shift of Viorkmen between Economic Enterprises and between Economic Sectors China is now in a transitional period where socialist enterprises are flourishing and oapitalist enterprises are undergoing socialist transformation. The workmen in the former are showing corresponding increase, whereas that in the latter are relatively de- creasing as shown in Table 7. According to this table, the Socialist State enterprises (national and local) are occupying increasing importance in national economy, and their laborers and employees have increased from 2.1 million in 1949 to 9,3 million 1955, or increasing from 40.3 te 67.3%. For the same period, the socialist co.ovrative enterprises and the joint onterpripee (between the State and private individuals) are also demonstrating their economic importance. The three categories of the economic enterprises as above-mentioned illustrate varying degrees of industrialization, and their laborers and employees are likewise showing different degrees of increase. Capitalist enterprises are gradually losing their ground, and their laborers and employees are obviously decreasing: from 2.9 millions in 1949 to 2.1 millions in 1955, or decreasing from 56.0% to 15.6% in the nation's economy. The development of our national economy is according to plans and pro- portions. The application of the labor force must also proceed from these principles. The government makes adequate arrangements for the employment of workmen. Thus, the distribution of the working force and its rate of increase in different sectors of the nation's economy assume a new form as shown in Table 8. Industry is quickly expanding and therefore needs a large number of workmen, who increase from 28.7% in 1952 to 31.6 in 1955. The expansion of the Government offices and people's organizations in recent years is much slower, and their relative position in the national economy is decreasing from 15.3% in 1952 to 10.2% in 1955. The distribution of the labor force by planning avoids the blind allocation of labor power in different sectors and also stave off unemployment. b) The Urban-Rural Movement of Population Urbanization and the developm6nt of factors give rise to the cityward drift of population from the hinterland villages to the cities. During the period of the first Five-Year Plan, about 8 million persons have continuously moved into the urban centers. Because in the cities, 'natural increase of population is faster, urban population is in recent years growing more rapidly than rural population. Thus, in Table 9 it is seen that in 1949 urban population only constituted 10.35%, and rural population occupied fully 89.65% of the total population. But in 1956, urban population increased to 13.84%, and rural population decreased to 86.16%. x) Another estimate for an earlier period around 1930 was as follows: birth rate, 38; death rate, 33; natural increase, 5 per 1,000 population, Ta Chen: Population in Modern China, p. 38. eclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043ROn1fInnnRnnno_-: Declassified in Part- Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 -16- Though the .rate of induotrial growth io That, the-otandard ofinduetri- aliSatien ia low,. oo induutry ia net yet able te draw any large number 0f,'werkmen every year. In 1953, more than 70.00 .of the labor force feund employment in the rieral areao? During theme laot-two ye, priority for employment ems given to the workera in the eitiea. How- ever, henoeforward for a rather long period, the prinoipal opportunitien for employment muat be Pound in the villageu. Thu, hereafter for quite scme time, the relative pooition between the urban and rural popula- tions may undergo only unimportant changeep o). Internal Migration prom 1949 to 1955, the total migrante within the country amounted to more than '20.000 ?crooner dietributing among the following sources: 330,000 peroone are engaged in irrigaeion and construction work; 149,000 peraone have emigrated from famine , areas and areas Of low soil fertility; 47000 city depOn,lonts from Poking, Tientsin, Shenyang have emigratea to the villages for product- ive work, Among these migrants more than 300,000 persone hive settled within the province; over 200,000 pereons hare suttled outside the boundaries of the province. The waster lands that are imitable for cultivation are widely distrebuted over all parts of China: such as Kwangtung andeKwangni in the South, ,Kansu and Sinkiang in the Northwest; and Liaonina and Yeiluneeiang in the Northeast. Between 1953 and 1956, the waste lands reclaimed totalled 4:3404000 hectares, chiefly by the State farms and State pastures. In 1956, the reclamation work by the State farms and migrants constituted more than half of all the waste lands reclaimed for the whole period. 3).. 'Birth Control In new .,China, marriage and family relationo are undoreeing significant changes. Tha traditional joint family System es.broaking down, and matrimonial relationships on the basis of the hew rarriage laW are in- fluencing multitudes ,:of young mon and women, Facine this fundamental Hi,ocialetransformation, the Chinese Cemmnneet Party and the People'a G,ovserlemeht, have, inrecent years, been Considering -the adoption of control as a new,poliey for marriage and family, relaeions. In September 1956, Premier Chou En-la., in submittiree the Perty'e proposal for the second Five-Year Plan, declared that "for the pro- tebtdon of womenand? children, for the up-bringing and education of the rese.ng generation, and for the hoelth and prosperity of the nation, we :ate' in, favor of the appropriate regulation of' ,entrust the 'Ministry of Health with the task of working cut an effective program of birth control with reference to publicity and practical applications." Publicity for birth control is being carried nn in all parte of China, and is. especially suceessful in the cities of Shaneung, ,Kiangeu, Fukien, Hopeieand Hunan, For the rural areas, ;publeoity 'work is just begenning;:anden, some provinces, it is ,barely .staring from the ad- ,et -17- miniatrative center of the ien. 0 Plana for 1957 provide that contraceptive devieee and medicines be aufficient for the two of 25 million marriOd couples. This supply con- sists of: sheaths, 80.0%;, jelly, 10.00; suppositories, 54;diaphragme, 3,00; other, 2,00. The ealoo for the fist quarter of 1957 by the State Medical and Pharmaceutical Company, Peking, include: sheaths, 4,310,00P1 diaphragms, 46000; jelly, 80,000 (tubes); suppositories', 569,504 ' (boxes). In a recent study on birth control and related-topics, it is revealed that under the proper direction and guidance of the Party and Government, the birth control movement will in duo course of time gain in strength and will eventually spread to different sections of the country. Birth control will thus become the deturmining factor for the reduction of the birth rate. To slow down the rate of population growth effectively, the birth rate would have to be reduced 50.0% from the present rate. Ostensibly, this would mean a long-term process, and the reduction may take not less than 10 years to complete, or til: the end of the ghird Five-Year Plan in 1967. This tentative conolubion is reached after due consideration of a number of factors including eho following: time-honored tradition on family and marriage, medical and hospital equipment in urban and rural areas, cultural and socio-e3onomic conditions of the common people, conservatism of the peaeantsp'and means of communication in the outlying regions. The time interval of 10 yearn al:owed for the reduction of the birth rate by 50.0% as above-stated is a considerably shorter period than what many foreign countries have expeeienced in adopting birth control successfully. Among other mattees there exists this significant difference: in most foreign nations, the people themselves practise birth control voluntarily; whereas in new China the Government on the basis of the people's aspirations takes the initiative and is directing it. Another social question closely :'elated' to the birth rate es the age at marriage of the contracting parties. A passionate debate is now raging as to the proper age at which a eoung man or young woman may marry'.' In view of these circumstances, it is suggested that a national system of vital registration be instituted forthwith for the registration of 'birth, death, marriage and migration with special emphasis on marriage data for the ultimate determination of the proper age at marriage for young men and women based on factual analyses. To encourage young men and young women to defer their marriages, a further suggestion is put forward that they avail themselves of the increasing opportunities now offered for attending schools, toeremain there as long as circumstances would permit, and to take up as far as possible, special studies at the research institutes. Particularly, the young girls are advised to educate themselves as much as their families would'allowb In addition, theyoung men and especially young ttiO eclassified inPart- Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043RonifInnnAnnn,,_,z Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 /vZ-wA Wre r'rgiQU'VagO(.1 to igitor tra4es, occupations and professions to Htrivg for 000nomic indopendenoes '111,:i ultimate aim is, of (Aurae., to abandon the objectionable sosial vnage of marrying ast young ages', and gradually raise the age at mavriage for youneg men and women. When the young women defer their. , m-t.rriageo, they woulil orfestiyely reduce fertility ail& thus decrease? tho'birth Irate. 4) The Nuud of now Population Estimates for old China ,Ohiefl,y duo to the lack of census data*and vital statistics, old cHnau tutal population, it geographical distribution ana its rate of 'growth have seldom boon scientifically analyzed. The 1953 census makes it poi:Bible tm start researches on the critical re-evaluation the demographic situation during the last 50 years by paying special attention to the following periods: a) 1909-1911: with some roports on pppulatien statistics issued by the Minchengpu; b).191271927 with Povulation statistics records published by the Ministry of the Interior, Peking, c) 1928-3:9481 with ,reports on populatien statistics by the Ministry of the Interior Auring the KuomIntang re'gime; and d) the population, statistical data compiled the. Ministry Of the Interior, the People's Government, for the period of economic recovery.- It is hoped that in the near future, now estimate on population for the period of China's resistanCe var against Japan mAy be published. ? ..P 0 LI t:J ? I LI 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 S. 0 H r0 E-1 is?tr. ?41001s-ra - 1.."...all SIM, 0 0 0 28, Table 17 Ant1110010 PP- 4C-41 p. 24, Table 7 Iry IP% H teN trN 1.6.101000.100. tr, #""".? ? ? P4 PI RI CO VD c?j Pt 11 ??""??? f"t? 0 , , CI\ 10 r?-? t..... ,D .. ... Iv Pt 00 P1 Is N 1/40 0 0 6 03 P. r:1? P. H r-I 0 H . Ch NN H H H H sr-I H H r-I H el*,moteemi.0.1.11Nsfinyearat0014???????^??10.1111. 0\ 0 N H 0 ? P4 P4 0111Fr "MI f P4 R).4 ? U., ? ? 5,0.0 1% 00-"r ??????? N *r-i. ? 1.r, 1/4.0 CO 0\ k??????? '.?????0 ????..." 61, -Table 40 t LI 0 4.tt Lr' tr1 0\ in +3 1/4.0 Lf1 Lt1 NI\ CO 'JQ CJ er, 5. 0., p. CN N Cr\ Lr, N te\ 0 N U1 H P-1 1???????????....?????1 't>b +3 0 0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? 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(I) rl F:1 0? t-I r"-4 61) HI-I .ri (1) cd ill 0'4 4.2 P.4 $.4 4-1 ? ?? * a) 0 0 1.-1 1:4 ft rz: ?r-1 4 0 CD LI (1) t> 4 0 ?? a) Cob!) rr 4 rz4 to 0 E-144 cr) (i) 4...) a4 4.3 .r1 POP Mil: :ft, 4:1 ) )?f 4?H H:2 " 0 r'.4 r:?1 CI ? e` r14 0 0 0 Crg 4 ? d ,a Cn ?P r11 ? 0.1 0 (1) ? 1= ? K-4 (1) 40 U3. ? CH .fC1 0k0 $-1 ? fn rz0 111, 00 40 0 .1-4 r4 r4 tkJ 0 r-4 4 tr,i tf) C.) F-1 0 ? H pod H Ci) ctC24 ? E ;""' P" ,C4 0 0 1$'134 ctl C1). 'H ? r"--1 0 N r"'N. r."-??? ?Zt" atquI 6-cc6-E 3loogalaal opidie.12omaG :-suoTquN palTua ak uaAT2 Evap moaj pavalamo :suoTlull ci (z c-171. ErS9 . . .. 94.761 IX 6 47c6I _ ----- __ Xulemaa-D jo oTTqudan-6-4paoordasa Xtremaa0 Jo T. oTigndu Talapad z-z6 - 17S6T -A OT . aomaia 9"Z6 - tS6I IA Oc se-re pu-a pu'ai.S.ua S-tr6 - L176T A zz uTIvAoisipaz3 9t76 - jA6-1 IA Oc IrtAaTsonx 9?96 47S6-E -X I TredPr L4:76T III 9Z - l(Leja L'G6 - tS6I ILE I salu4S pal-Tull C?66 - cc6I sbulTraelnea C4-66 - _ cSGT. uapams C-66 - OS61 IIA I - -ETziq #'aOT ' i -76T IA Oc _ .t urrallsny c'ZOT ' SS6I ITA I -a-puu3 9"c0I ' Tc6T III I uTpui - L'LOT ' cc6T IA 0 via-pm - 1. saIlu Ira r zos crylua XOS eq.Eff -1:1111T103- - saTorluno3 oT11,41- x-:z Gensuo.Tof PoTau.la.i;ion aa j Ar=icultn7-, f Chanr Lu Esien. Fukien (1Tooc1iorl -)roviroial Governnent, -July2 1937) lapulation Statistics and .nalysis of Lan Hsi Experimental Esien (Hanrchow: Governaent, September, 1936). PrEliminaryReport of Population Census Tsinz Hua University, ...up:ust, Census of Selected Hsien in Szechwan Statistics, Chinese National Government, 1943).- (10 Experiaental Population Census and Vital Registration in Kunming Lake Reien, Yunnan( Kurrdng; Conmittee on Experimental Census and Vital Registration for Kunming Lake Region, February, 1944), 00 pazwues - 'Jed pawssepaa 181 .101. pa/kW n.) R3 0 T=. ????1=1. I aToraI aes :aoanos Ct eictuI i9.d6cDT) te-z aprall 09-d4(9) 91 eIcieLT: iTc-OC ?dcP(L) 0 Ti'd4(9) L 0000T j 00001 96-66 1 0000T e6-66 i 1.0 900 900 1 t -1-t7'0 .c.g'0 ccs0 I Lo 9c-[ I 9Z*5 1 c0'9 cc 60'0I 'OI .tn7-9 6C-9 Z'9 c'OT SL.9 9601 49.*Z 9Z'C gg-z L-z Cz- z9-ci ecetT ci.-zi C-z-r I6-zi Lcesi oL-ti 5T-ST tcli T9'17T Leew ' Z'TZ C-c-i cTs0Z- Z6'9I 69*C1 09'LT c'6T Crti'ST:. 6L-6T 99'CT c6CT 9L7T ot6 9 LO'Z 99'T T6'T t_tr'Z ;TCT ' , 08'Z -- 90-z 6z-z o6-z_ ed.-e, oC-C L6 Lc17 ?-zc 176-i7 1 uolau 3T,Pri -OuTuurtH I 2unx 2ual.13 I TsH we(' aweI 0Iguti I gir0Vd 6(i) 0003T comz 916 Tc'ZI 9C'ti 0191 tt'1.7Z TV'JA O9-z! 06-z 9o-C, o6-z: _ eicroz 4I7Z?da(:1) 00001 00?031 6c-0 Ic'T zL-(.0 oP13 -7(6'1T cC"t'T 9.).9-1 9c'aj7Z 9091 CT.0 c16-z Lo-C LI?J.7 .?????????11M==?? 41a0MMO kOliqUri OL1.0 Z3.21 0 CL otaT oL-9 t79--cc H Vg-gt OZ'TI ri-cc OC'T tc--cZ _06691 17Z-c-E 09'cZ !7I-g 09'91 'A, 09"Z 17 OC"C 7 09.0 OS.0 0 Inq .Ouvq3 I uaTsq :Sum I 2uTft 21.112TR 1 unox tam UTA 2r L1 -1.ue0 aaa :puTum UT seTq_Treooq 8 uT suoTvpsodmoo av. :C eicrax, - ZZ ????? 3 - Table 4: Age Composition in 16 Countries: Per Cent Age group China 30VI 1953 India IIII 1951 JapaiEgypt\Yugo- slavi 30VI 2.6 101._0_ Czecho- Slovakia. 22 V 1947 2.1 6___ DemocnItielFederal, Republic Of Gamew 29 XI _ 0-946 : 0.9 6 0 Republic; of Cam. I 1954 1.5 England and Waled 30 VI 110 1954 :./ I 1.5 6A1 _ France 1 - V 1954 0.7 7.3 Nether Swda1JnjtJ#14w, 1 a 4 z l'r-A9i34 AMstr- lands I Statm i pli I 1 II 1954,1947 26111 11954 1953 ilVII 195311954 419_11550 1TII - 1VII. 504/1 1947 0 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 an* 3.3 12.3 20.3 17.3 14.6 12.0 943 6.5 3.4 1.0 - 17 fi 3.2 10.1 24.2 19.0 15.3 11.6 8.1 4.9 13.6 - 2.01 9.2 22.7 19.2 15.1 11.2 9.1 6.3 3.7 1.5 2.7 11.0 24.3 17.3 14.7 12.9 9.0 4.7 2.2 0.9 0.3 2.2 8.6 19.0 15.2 14.5 12.7 11.2 8.4 5.5 2.7 - 1.5 6.3 15.9 12.1 14.7 15.1 13.5 10.3 7.0 3.6 2.2 8.3 18.0 13.5 14.9 13.9 11.4 6.8 5.7 2.8 - 1 V2:71 112-4 1?..4125.6 14.1t 14.9 13.3 , 1(0.1i 7.4 5.2 2.6 3.7 4 20.1 14.2 4 1o.5 15.9 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 I 2.4 7.6 15.0 15.8 15.7 13.8 11.7 9.4 54 2.6 0.6 19.2 20.1 15=.2 9?9 10.3 6.6 4.1 1.8 0.0 _7 14-9 17.0 13.5 16.1 12.7 874 5.3 2.3 0.1 _ 18.1 13..3 1.9 15.4 14.4 11.1 7.3 2.6 _ _5.9 14.7 15:5 - 14.5 12:6 15.0 10..5 6.7 34 - 15.0 12.5 i4.7 ; 14.0 14.2 _10.7 7.5 - 3-9 15.3 13.9 15.0 11.1 13.9 10.7 7.7 4.4 -0.0 over un- known All ages 1001.0000.0 1 J 100.0 100.0 106.0 100.0 ECIO 100.0 10).0 1100.0 100.0 100.0 -1C0- .6. 100.0 1100.0 g 1 00.0 Source: 1) For China: Computed From data given in 1953 census - 2) For 15 nations: Computed from data given in United Rations: Demographic Yearbopk 1955, Table 10. 771,4 -2u-pied g9uTuturEd IPoT1sTvals jo Tutunor gNaoz. vaaIlsT1-els jo aallTumo3 raTiozTpa gLS6I '01 *I0A '31-10/11 1uoT1sT1:01S =a0anc'S (Z - ? ? ; ; 1 -- _ - ? S'Z . Z'Z9 9.6Z P'OOT . _ ? w -. I ; 6-xfzegl-O' 9.Z. 9tC t3?c T'LG 0001 =la o pAT4-miedo-oo JO aaqua:ri - _ paorDuvl zeurca ? . . . aamii3j: 110-Fg . ? -iagauj s?1313 aufTg: aaacktri - , mruj inua lacalaj adoi . raltPLIG _ 4 f 1 r- ? (eg) Vc61 Jo pua ly . ? _StaiOjacipael JO uoTsnT3uo3 111-, - - SS.WE3 , 1 Sample Surveys on PoIulation Change in 16 Hsien 1) Lokiang, Szechwan 2) Sinfan, Szechwan Peichwan, Szechwan Lunrchang, Szechwan Pinyang, KwanFsi 7) Lichuan, Shensi Sub-total (14 Hsiang, kiangsu) a) Kianglin, Kiansu (5 Hsiang) Tantu,.Kiangsu(3 Hbiang 5 months, Jan-May,1952, converted to one year 1952 41.6 41,7 52,8 47.9 42.8 33.3 43.8 20,6 26.6 26.7 23.9 23.6 12.0 23,0 12.7 Tun.r:tai, Kiangsu (1 Hsiang) Kanyti, Kiangsuil Hsiang, Pinghai, Kiangsu(lHsian Two years, Jun.1951-Jun. 1953,converted to oneyeail 9 months, sept.1952-jun. 1953, converted tooneye Two years, Jun.195:1-Jun. 1953, cohverted_ to oneyeai Not specified, probably 1952-1953 1953 )10 months, Jun. 19-53--i. to one year ) One yeEr,Jun.1952-Jim1.19 Two years,1952-1953, con verted to one year 1 vii 1952- 30 VI 1953 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A roved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 tn f-(1 L.?. N4- r..4 1/4-0 a o 4 ? I r--1 te) r-1 , tr-1 0 0 t+-4 ets) en r-4 C.) es-1 0 u) Q) Q) ei-4 1)-4 0 0 P-4 0 El a) a) H O 4 fri P:1 1/4.0 izt us') c?S r4 (71 O r-4 g g O 0" EG) cl) to .1-I t'.0 .4.3 g F-4 .r-I 0 .ri R F-4 14 .11a4) w w rim O g g ca f +10 (I) 00, .Ori t?4 0 .r-i A4 Cd .ri 4.2c3 .1_11> tt 4-3 -4-, cti ct P d4-1 A P-4 Pi fn INTERNATIONELIA STATIWILL, INSTITUTET L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE S`PATISTIQUE THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 30 ..SESSION STOQKHOLM 0/6,15/8 957 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ACTUAL VERSUS STATIONARY POPULATIONS by V.G. Valaoras .1 ) I INTRODUCTION Populations carry with them the imprints or their past, which are oharac- teristtcally reflected in their sex and .ape structure as it becomes available 'in the census return's. ,Variationu in mortality,,fertility'and piFrat,ion, as they occurred during the population's life history, are mr,tre less conspic- uously recorded in the ape-sex pyramids, or better so, in.the profiles of the population, when it f. s stratified by ,affe-Froupi. Taking as example, the pro- file of the United States' population as it appeared durinr the first half of this .century, one can notice several interesting features.. The center of aT 114ts t r at *fist" ? ? ?? ??11.11., 111W-1111 R? /if 'OS WI gm.= tt. ,tttli' WM* p ? ? ? Yll IP !MIRTH ?Pig. 1. The Profile of the United States' Populatkon- (Both 1.900-1950.4.. by .A.ge, ,and Year of Birth, )...,Member of the United Nations' Secretariat. The views presented ares his own and not necessarily those of the Secrizitariat;' ? I ? 1?? ? MapIt7titi?PW.APP,-Pt.A. rrInv Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 .4440 "st attraction in thie preeentation is the hypotenuse (profile of the right triangle whoee vertical side represents the age or the year of birth of the ooIresponding age group, while the horizontal side denotes the population in million. This profile, in 1900, was almost a straight line with only a small bulge at the ages between,20'and 30 years. Fifty years later, in 1950, the line became a distorted curve with a gaping gulf at the ages of 10 to 20 yearn, a long tail-line at the ages below ten years and several smaller bulges in the older ages. Other examples may be drawn from almost every modern population, the census data of which are available by sex and age groups. What is the nature and significance of these deviations from the normally expected smooth profile of human populations? In the case mentioned above, collateral data on vital statistics and migration offer some explanation. An intermittent positive net migration during the period prior to 1920 and a decline of the birth rate in the thirties followed by an accelerated fertility in the post-war years, explain the irregularities observed. Uood as this interpretation may seem, it fails to give a complete answer to the query of how much the iven a e structure differs from the ex ected normal. To answer this, one must first define what is a normal age structure of a population. Among the various types of 2IanitIi.E.10_92110.21ILLImel which have and are being used in this connexion, those of the stable and of the stationary populations seem to best satisfy the conditions required. Both are types of a general demographic norm which describe theoretical age (and sex) structures of a population under the assumption of constant fertility, constant mortality and 12,2.Eigration. The exclusion of the effects of migration from these norms reduces somewhat the immensity of possible variations in the age structure, but the number of profiles that may be constructed under the principle of stable population is still exceedingly large. This number is further reduced to manageable proportion in the stationary population in which fertility is made Ilsual to mortality,. Under this principle the variability of population profiles is restricted within the range of possible variation in one of the two factors involved. 2) . Previous publications have made clear that among the variations of fertility and of mortality, which in the absence of migration mould the shape the age' structure of a population, these of mortality are by far the best documented and the most manageable from the point of view of demographic techniques. Mortality statistics are more plentiful and extend to a considerable time in the past. Moreover, the long term variations of mortality, in contrast to those of fertility, seem to take place in a more orderly way. Finally, the maximum range of mortality variations appears to be more or less restricted by physiological limits. For example, a very heavy mortality, i.e., one corresponding to an expectation of life at birth of less than 20 years, seems to be incompatible with the maintenance of the numbers of the population, for it would call for a fertility of seven or more live births to ,every. woman aged 15 to 44 years. On the other end of the range, mortality declines beyond a life expectancy at birth in the neighborhood of 75 years, seem highly improbable under present and all forseeable conditions of life. This concept of ....,_idy...,...c2....,.osed.,12uLLIatiostationarar'a is proposed here to be used as the 21Liala. against which deviations in the profiles of actual populations may be measured and, as far as possible, interpreted within the limitation involved. The idea is not new for demographic literature alli11/ ) _United Rations: 11. e and Sex Patterns of Mortalit . Model Life-Tables for. Eaktacilk112,22,cICountries. Population Studies, No. 22, New York December, 1955 and United, Nations: methods of Po ulation Pro ections b sex and A:e. ? Population Studies No. 25, New York, August 1954 also; V.O. ValaoTaa, "Standard Age and Sex Patterns of Mortality' in Trends and ? 11111111.1.2.1111.91a1L1LI, Milbank Memorial Fund.,, New 'York 1956. Declassifiedin Part - Sanitized Copy Approvedf Rel ? 64 Yry, " 3) has rapeatedly hinted at thin method in the pant. However, an overall picture of norMal variationo in th'ese5nulalLuzaelialt and the reoapitu- Tatione of methods for lisihg thin information in order t neoii dmo of our dayly demographio problems, may be of some interest to the participants of this meeting. II. MODEL STATIONARY AND CLOSED POPULATIONS A series of twelve model life-tables was constructed at about equally opaced levele of gelieral7777lity, from a level corresponding to an expectation of life at birth (both sexes), of 20 years to that of 74 years. An interval of five years .of expectation of life was used throughout, excep for the last one which was reduced to four years. Three sets of correspondi funotions, namely both sexes, malc?. and females, were included in each mode One hundred national life-tables 4) selected from those appeaxing in the la t three volumes of the United nations Demo ,ra hie Yearbooks, for the years 1953, 1954 and 1955, were used as the basis or computations. The numbers surviving (lx) at exact ages 1, 5, 10, 15... 80 and 85 years, were plotted against the corresponding expectations of life at birth (es) for each sex, and second degree, parabolas wore fitted to the observations in order to derive the lx values at the pre-determined levels of e8. In certain cases the theoretical values had to be slightly adjusted to correspond more closely to the observations.' The result, appears in the Appendix in the form of 'six basic tables, giving, at rogi4ar intervals of life expectancy, the principal life-table functions. They are: A.- the numbers Surviving at exadt age (1x) out of an original cohort of 10,000 live births; B.- the accumulated number of deaths from birth to the specified age group (z:1); C.- the probabilities' of dying 3) Among the recent and most comprehensive studies in this respect See: George Stolnitz, 'Life Tables from Limited Data, A Demographic Approach, Princeton University, 1956; also: United Nations: Methods of Using Census Statistics for the Calculation (2f1. Tablesfe.322LsandOthnora2hicMeasures, by Giorgio Mortara. Population Studios ,No. 7, New York', Nov. 1949. ?? our.. .s ot., ? e, is. s.,??? $s Al rr ???141 Sr r ? r. to.. 401?11011?40 .44 711d following national life-tables were selected in Virtue of consistency , Of r6sults-4nd thoir-represurqativeness of the various levels of general mortality; Australia: '1901-10, 1920-22, 1932-34, and .1946-48+ Auitrie4 1901-05, 193O-19,1949-51; Belgium: 1891-1900, 1928-32 and 13777 Canada: 1930-32, 1940-42, 1947 and 1950-52; Czechoslovakia: 18951902 and . 1929-32; Chile; 1930 and 1940; Denmark: 1901-05, 191.1-15,.193i.-35, 1941-415 and 1946-50; gisal: 1936-38; England and Waled: 1901-10,, 1910,-12, 1920-22, 193Q-32 and' 1952; Finlandf 1901-10; France: 1898-1903, 1908-13, 1928-33, 1946-49 and 195,0-51; German: 1901-10'1 1924-26 and 1949-51 (Fed. Rep.); India: 1891-1901, 1901-11; 1921-31 and 1941-50; Italy: 1901-11, '19,21-22 . and 1930-32; Jamaica: 1929-22; laisat,: 1899-1903J, 1909.-13, 1921-25, 1926-30, 1935-36,'1949-50 and 1953; Mauritius: 11942-.46, Mexico: 1930 and 1940; Netherlands: 1900-109, 1910-20, 1921,-30, 1931-40 and 1947-49; New Zealand: 1901-05, 1911-15, 1934-38 and 1950-52; Norway: 1901-10, 1911-20, 1921-30, 1931-40 and 1946-50; hslyal.: 1939-42 and 1949-52; Scotland: 1920-22 and 1930-32; ,Spain: 1900, 1910, 1920 an4 1930; Sweden: 1901.710, 1911720, 1921730, 1931-40, .1941745 and 1946-50; Switzerland: 1910-11,' 1920-21, 1929-32, 1933-37, 1939-44 Taiwan: 1936-40; Uniqi' South Jfrica: .1920-22, 1925-27, 1935-37 and 1945-47; United States. of America: 1900-02,.1909-11, 1929-311 1932-41, 1949-.51 and (whites) 1950 These data were arranged at ascending order or male life expectancy at birth and the averages of groups, consisting,of 10.A.ife tablep each, 'were used for the computation;of4h-e.theereieal-mirv:qs:-.15,.eridsiouriusuallY high mortality were excluded from this, series as much as it was possible. , ? . IA-RDP - 01300080002-3 ? ? ?????,r1r Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 -4 within?the age interval ( D.- the oomplete expeotation of life at exact age (0); Bee the total a se and the distribution of the stationary populat,pn by sex and age groups, expressed as a percentage of the total population (both sexes) and, finally, F.- the survival ratios from birth to the speoified age group. t ? , A number of generalizations were used in the computation of the basic tables, the most important of which are as follows: A life-table for both sexes was oonetruoted for each model on the basis of those for each sex, at an assumed birth-ratiotof 105 males per 100 female births. The mean population in all quinquennial age-grqups4 with the exception of the first, was taken to equal 1.1c) average of'the,twO marginal lx values multiplied by five. Those for the a 1-groups-b-eyaiid.:,thelige,:,!46.f.;.8,5 were based on extrafOIated lx values on the iumpt1.on of a certainty of dying within the next quinquennial age-group, foxy t .1' those surviving beyond their 100th birthday. The mean' populatien for the'f,i.rst'year of,lif,e (Lc) wab assumed te equal'the number surviving at age one, lAus,one-foU'rth of the deilths occuring during the first year. Finally the mean populat,ion of the age-group 1-4 was taken to equal 121 11+2.1 15. With these generalizations and certain rounding of the probability of , dying, at the high mortality levels, these models were taken to approximate successive steps of general mortality. improvements, from the heavy toll at Int wilich a poplilatipn,can barely sustain its numbers (e020 yrs) to a little beyond the best mortality experience so far attained (tg=74 yrs). It is not intended to duplicate the condition Of any individual populations, for the simple reason that indi'vidVal peculiarities in the patterns of 'dying, as they occur in the various populations, have been glossed out by the,use of the average rates and the application of relatively simple mathematical formulas. Nevertheless, these models fit sufficiently well the observations of average patterns of mortality conditions and, 661,664i:ifiy, they may be used as theoretical standards for assessing deviations in the status and the dynamics of actual populations. 4 I ? S. 1st .11,?. 1.13,614 JO... ? MIN. 1 a . A few limitations of this scheme must, however, be brought up at the outset. In the first place there is little structural resemblance between actual populations and the models presented here. Even if the population of a country approaches or has reached the stationary and closed condition described by the models, its age structure will 'till 'differ perceptibly, until this condition had lasted'uriChaii:ged long enough to influence all age groups. A second limitation arises from the scarcity of observations at the lower and the upper limits of the range, within which mortalityeonditions were presumed to move. For example, mortality levels below a life expectancy at birth of 30 years are not adequately substantiated by actual 'observations, and experience beyond a life expectancy of 70 years is still very limited. Only between these two levels, the present models may be taken to describe more or less satisfactorily the average mortality - fertility conditions, and their effects upon the structure of a population. Finally, the reader should keep in mind the fact that the,se models are based on the experience of some two dozen countries during the, period of the last fifty years. Although, this experience is believed to offer a good generalization for the approximation of average demographic conditions of any country or period, atypical changes in mortality patterns should be given careful consideration as to their applicability to the present general scheme. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MODEL POPULATIONS Prom the basic characteristics of the stationary and closed population, which these models describe, the following postulates emerges 16 - General fertilit and mortalit rates: Since the annual numbers of ? births and those of deaths are equal in all models, namely 20500 for both sexes, or 10500 for ma1e5 and 10000 for females, and the resulting total population inoreauee in size, as the mortality intensity decreases, the oorreeponding crude birth and crude death-rates, as well as those equivalent to the more refined fertility-rates, in the twelve models, decline steadily aa shown in Table 1. Thus, at the heavy toll of about 50 deaths per 1000 population (model 1) the aggregated fertility rate, i.e: the number of live births per woman at the reproductive age of 15 - 44 years, amounts to almost seven children. This in a very high fertility for a population which ean barely retain 9s ,c modest size and seldom if ever is it duplicated in actual populations. ;), It ie known, for example, that even when fertility is not voluntarily controlled, social and physiological barriers curtail more or less the "maximum" reproductive capacity of the human female, for the simple reason that not all women at the reproductive age are permanently exposed to the chance of child- birth. Even if all women in a population were married and living with their husbands, the proportion of temporary or permanent sterility seems to be of a substantial order of magnitude and in direct relation with the severity of prevailing mortality conditions. On the other extreme (model XII), only a little over two live births per woman in the reproductive age, suffice to sustain a population almost four times as large as the former. TABLE 1. TOTAL POPULATION, DEATH AND BIRTH-RATES AND SPECIFIC FERTILITY- RATES, IN TWELVE MODLLS OF STATIONARY POPULATION (Both Sexes), WITH 20500 DEATHS AND AN EQUAL NUMBER OF BIRTHS ANNUALLY. Model eg No. (Bs) Total Per 1000 Popul- ation Population Deaths Births Women Fertility Rates Births per Woman 15 - 44 per 1000 in the Age Group Years Women 15-44 yrs. 15-44 yrs. 1 20 411,596 49,8 49.8 92,607 221.4 6.64 II 25 513,344 3969 3969 117,462 174.5 5624 III 30 614,389 33,4 33.4 136,910 147.6 4643 IIT 35 715,460 28.6 28.6 158,880 129.0 3?87 V 40 816,878, 25.1 25,.1 178,877 114.6 3.44 1/1 45 918,524 22.3 22.3 196,950 103.0 3.09 VII 50 1,021,943 20.0 20.0 219,085 93.6 H 2.81 VIII 55 1,124,915 18.2 '18.2 228,187 89.8 H 2.70 IX 60 1,225,791 16.7 16.7 255,340 80.3 2?41 x 65 1,329,964 15.4 15?4 270,860 75.7 2.27 XI 70 1,430,966 14.3 14.3 284,180 72.1 2.16 XII 74 1,517,114 1365 13.5 293,155 69.9 2.10 400=14itt,iO4.? 2. Size and age structure. Because mortality declines :faster at the younger than the older, ages, more people survive ,to later ages and, therefore, the size and the age distribution of the stationary populations change ' conspicuously from one model to the other. The combined 'effect, of a parallel, decline in the general birth-, and death-rates is demonstrated in a series pf population pyramids (figure 2), in which each square of shaded area represents 10.000 people. In, the absence of migration, the age structure is standard for each model,and.the population. in .each quinquennial age-group equals the product of 'a fixed number of birthsn:thiS .P64.0.:5:.,X 10500 for males and 5'x 10000 for females) multiplied by a. iurviValait160- the magnitude Yonftiokekni.......harmia.....1.w.hamatiamoodas 5) See: Unesco.- pp. 26-27. 41 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 ? CIA-RDP81-0 00130008000 - Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 ' MALES Th Pyrthnid a of the' ?Sttit-i-onailr. Poptitattoirs?tn 1he' 1 2 ,Modeis e8 20-74 a ? ) 4 rat, *WWI 4$ ? -. 74'1 of which in determlnad by the level of /mineral mortality as well ao by the ace of the Froup. A aerion of auoh ratios is given in Appendix table'AI. Thin oharaoteriatio is ahared by actual populations which aro also made up mclinly of the survivors of a oertaip number of 4rtha. annually. For the 'younger age proupe at which the factor of migration may be taken au negligible, the survival ratios, ao derived by the, modelsrmay 'safely be 'applied to actual populations. If the'pupulation in a given age croup and I$ ? '11,1 ? 10 lit III' ft SA. 100 95 85 aoS I 14?111?41?1114?11?1110. t? ? : 1 to iv 7o 1.0.10 I ? ? 5 a 1.4.4 Pig ? ? 41, s ? a ?1$ P I , ? es. . goats,. ? II, $ ??????? .44 ,aossa.44.4.0114.e.0?0* 0Ao Vsati a/ rs, 11.1 ,s01144...,4, Not ?e? 11.1.4?? ??? at . .? I ? I ? 3. ? 45 50 55 65 75 $11 Sa AO, ??? ? so ? as .1 ...? Survival.. Ratios from Birth to the..Spe,cified Age Groups at VariousaLevels of Life Expectancy.at Birth (both.soxes). 1: under 1 year, 2: under 5 years,. 3v under 10 years, Al- under I'5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 IP the number or birthe registered during the correeponding period are known, the survival ratio that may be computed from theee numbere would approximate o1on7ly the general mortality level, to which this population group was exposed. TABLE.A. SURVIVAL RATIOS FOR THE POPULATION (Both Sexes) AT THE YOUNGER AGE GROUPS IN THE TWELVE MODELb. Modelo Age Gr6ups 2P 0- 1 0 -4 0 - 9 0 - 14 II WrESEPPRA"P.1.911..,..0.0.../...M..m..mos I 20 .7718 .6370 .5648 .5262 II 25 .8024 .6832 .6194 .5859 III 30 .8271 .7222 .6666 .6376 Iv 35 .8479 .7556 ;1072 .6826 ^ 40 .8682 .7890 .7480 .7274 va 45 .8680 .8226 .7893 .7726 VII 50 .9071 .8565 .8316 .8187 VIII 55 .9264 .8897 ?8723 .8629 Ix 60 .9454 .9204 .9090 .9026 x 65 .9625 ,9469 .9404 .9364 XI 70 .9786 .9704 .9672 .9652 XII 74 .9920 .9888 .9874 .9864 Similarly, when the mortality level is known from other sources, the number of births corresponding to the given population may also be derived. At later ages, the survival ratios may help to retrace the effect of past migration, or even to correct given numbers of births, if the remaining pertinent data are accurately established. 3.- The mortality functions of_LI22_212..iLlanz_10.2211121isas. Among the TABLE 1. COPJFFICIENTS FOR CONVERTING AGE-SPECIFIC DEATH-RATES (511x) TO LIFE- TABLE PROBABILITY OF DYING (59x). COMPUTED ON THE DATA OF THE STATIONARY POPULATIONS. UNA aniiirols 5Mx Conversion factor for age- for all other group 1 - 4 age groups Conversion factor 5mx for age- for all other group 1 - 4 age grmups -9., various funotione which measure mortality foreee in the stationary popu- lations, those of probability of dying within an age interval (ax) and the number of deaths within this interval (x), aovire special el.gnificanoe. As it is known, the first of these functions is closely related with the age-specific death-rate (mx) derived from census and registraV.on eturns. When the interval ia uniformly given in five-year age-groupu f) the relationship between vix and 5ax may bo expressed by the coefficients given in Table 3. The age interval of five years is large enough to minimize random errors, but small enough not to be unduly influenced by the atypical age- structure which as a rule is found in actual populations. In the light of this relationship, actual populations may be directly converted into the stationary populations of corresponding mOrtality, by means of these ooefficients. The second function i.e.: the di6tribution of deaths by five-year age- groups (51x) may be used as a toot of reliability of the above conversion. ,Since the annual numbers of births and deaths in the stationary population are equal, and the age structure is standard for each level of general mortality, the distribution of deaths, by age, is also standard for each level of mortality-fertility, assumed to mould the various models. This distribution in a life table with its radix in a multiple of ten, is in fact a percentage distribution of deaths by age, which may be accumulated from birth until the last of the,survivors of the cohort dies. From this presentation the median age and the two quadrille ages, that, is the ages at which 25 II %:: 50 % and 75 % of all deaths have occured, were derived, as shown TABLE 4. AGE AT WHICH 25 %, 50 %, AND 75 % OF ALL DEATHS HAVE OCCURED IN THE 12 MODEL POPULATIONS. Model 22 No. (B.S. Median and uadrille A es at Death in Years 25% 50%. 75% 20 II 25 III 30 IV 35 40 VI 45 VII 50 VIII 55 Ix.... 60 65 XI 70 XII 74 0.82 0.95 1.56 2.56 3?84 9.00 24.30 37.58 49.56 57.86 63.76 67.87 6.81 15.66 25.14 33.93 43.62 53.10 6o.28 65.02 68.52 71.82 74.80 77.25 38.12 4709 55.49 63.12 68.28 71.76 74..11 76.54 78.50 80.57 82.55 84.36 These values', in turn, indicate a certain level of life expectancy at birth and the two results i.e.: the one obtained from the conversion of the age- specific death-rates and the other from the median age at death, should correspond, if the given age-specific mortality was accurately recorded. In the stationary populations the median and the quadrille ages at'death constitute a most sensitive indicator in measuring general levels of health 7) Experience has shown that a combined death-rate covering the entire group under the age of five years, yields better results than if infant and. early childhood mortality are taken separately. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 of the actual population, as expressed by the corresponding expectation of life at birth. Figure 4 showo diagramatically the great amplitude of this' sot* ofiourVes in defining the approximate life expectancy at birth froth the age, by whieh a tertain percentage of dciathe occurs in the . ateitionary, population. In actual populatiOn6 the median and the ouadrills ages at death are more or lees dieturbed by the effect of unbalanoed- fertility and migration of the paet and can only te ueed when the ' population is converted into the correeponding stationary type. The varioue steps of this proceso are explained in the following chapter. aiummemelis4ftwalosumumnsimmoimmoommar ? ? Fig. 4. Median and Saerille Ages at Death at various levels of General Mortality.- (es, both sexes from20 to 74.yrs.) tO AGE ? U' - ti IV. POSSIBLE U$ES OF MOUL POPDLAT;OiTE. Mo4e1 popuIatione oilier a ;good standard, against which peouliaritien in structure and dynamics of actual population may be compared and ore or less aesetwed,ao to their nature and.origin.. They also are useful for predicting future population trends by age-sex groups. Finally,! they provide an easy' method for determininEr the approxiMate levels, of pnerea hortality, and by implidation, levele of fertility 4nd f population growth,, on the basis of a few key population'data, even if a completed ?set of 'thee data is lacking, As a first step the quinquenn al agespecifio dpath-ratee are multiplied by the corresponding,coefficiente order to arriveLatth'e life-table ' mortality-funotien'by ace groups. Q) ,From this tunotdon, it, is easy to pass on to the next function Of port:Ione sur;v%I.N'thg'at,i'he beginning of each age-inter- val, out of an initial cohort of 1,0100births, 9) and to that of persons dying within each ace interval. Tablet'D and F, in the Appendigive the complete' expectation of life and the percentage age distributio4 of the corresponding otationary populations..Theee values may:bp taken from the model closest to the indicated mortality level,' or be furtherimproved.14 interpolating the data of tho two ad,loining models, around the indicated life expectancy at birth. One more step, that of equalizing the two populations, by multiplying the proportional 114:e distribution.ot .the.stationary ,population by the total number of 'persons in the actual pepul'atiein, will provide 4 basis:for comparison between the Rge structures of the actual:versue the Corresponding stationary populations. In the following example anatIpmpt is made to apply this method on the 1950 population census of Switzerland. C011atpral data as they exist for the Swiss popult7dbion were freely used in this example in order to illustrate the various possibilities, of ,the methedsl. As a first'sts14 the'expeetation of life at birth.for the 'census date was appreximated on the basis of the following data:: ? Age' Population' EiTalgs COIL ' Under yr. 5 Yrs, 10 " 15 " I, U 76,5 412.2 814,2 1110. 'T Births. Survival S000) ' 7.17.1 ?A *NI id??????Mk7.?.I......7. 84.9 435.3 339.3' 1.1 58.8. e8 ,9017 48.6 .9468 ' 65.0 9582 68.3 9585 6M. , Because of an Obvious underenUmeratien of Chi4dren.',' the' MOPt probable life expectancy rt birth, 'resultng from the application of the survival ratios, was Sound in the last lifte'in wirichithe poptilation unclet 15 years of age and the births'reLgistered during the 15 years prior te thedate,of,the census were compared.. On the basis of this indicatienthe'corre'sponding stationary population was, constructed as, in col. 5of ,table 11.111?0711???~IMMYINAMMNIIM77.7?1?????? 8) For a detaid and more elaborate methed,of, converting te'lx pee: L. Reed and 'M. Merrel, "A Short Method or ,corpucting an Abridged, Life-Table" in the Arleyjcan, j_ourrol of 14yAienp, Vol i 39, No. 2, September 1939.- If the average number:,ofbirths regiOtere4,4uring.the preceding five- year period is used in.stead of the 'ConVeritienaradixthe:p!ult would correspond to a;stati6nary population which could be constructed. on the basis of the current number of births at the observed mortality. level. 9) '7s7x Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 0:2 ? 0 ? sri r-i e"'? -P 0 CC/ P4 0 +300 ? (1) Ci) 4.1 ari +) 0 el,L) 14 0 Ct)'rlO U) ? 0 f:1 P40 0 0 0 o ? ND P4 ? rti Wo f.4 O(1) ?0"""??? 1/40 Lr ect - 12 - I, S. I" v.. t" %.1;) r? 0'1 ON 05f11115011 NI' CO trS trN CO trIS CNI re tr? t?C N "Ce Lrk CO co kr\ 1.01?0?110 tr1 r41 \ t LrN re\ r.e.\ teN t" I" 141 N ref\ 0\ 01 V-- N CS' N-0 Ln CtrO4D Lr, re\ 4- cry,s C?j, t"'", N MO1ONCOCOM ,06600600 Vigt1/4.0170%04"0N ???0?0?? V.."' TN r4r1 rie 0\ V-, Lr? 1/44) N,g) Lc% urN I." co 0 cv co 0 1/4.0 N- 14\ 9- CJ e- 1/4.0 C:7\ 1.1\ 141 C1/41 I.- ON ON CO te- ect vet ect reN reN re? i41 LPNN-NCN 0 ???????? I- CO r- CO I"NNNNNr-r 1"t"tseNt"14"),"t" teNCINVZOONWT.". ? ? ? ? ?'11 ? 0 in he\ ON CO 0 0 0 ON t.r1 in 'co tr\ itt m4- t,i1 14411411 1.41 t?.eN "tzt? NOMMt."'0.1"4" 0 ? 0 ? 6?? ? ? r"ONONtztlnr."-T tt'N Ws% iheN re1 tArN 0 L(OW\0 in 0 01 Lf1 44' re\ re\ (1/41 N I I I I I I I I ?.0 \.0 r- tzt ect re\ tr? C\1 N sr- r" \ 01 0\ \ 01 0\ 01 e?-? r" 1-? a) a cr3 a) a) r.i Xi CO ,..../ 42 a) 4-1 ? a) +3 ? A a ,1.1 Fii V) f-'4 ry CO ? ril I 0 44 O m A ' 0 cd 01) r-I ,4?3 r--I %......d rt$. 8 O 0 440 ,airi 0 0 0 0 0, g ,ri -I-? ' P 4.a cri W 1:1 I.i 'ti ti3 s'i r?-1 ..) r" a 0) ON 0 14:2 ir! 142 CO 14 0 103 #.3 . cd .J k cd H 4fti r-4 a) cH 0 cid 0 a), 0 F:j ,ri .ri e44 ei , 'n hil II 0" Z g '1'4 0 T.1 o 4z f--I Pa CO sri sr., 4-4 'ri sri 44 cI-1 ;-i 4 0 0 W m 4 a5 (1) 0 I-4 tto .0 +) Pt En 0 0 0 0 m 0 Cl) 0 F-i . 0 0 rd . cr) cs-4 t-m- Wci co., 0 0 O rd 0 .ri w.Mfld ? irl Ti Cl) W 0 Cl) 4.12) rg 18 t Cd I-1 .4-, cal PEr IT) 151 0 .11.!i P41 P r-i 0 C.) 0 c4-4 k rd a) P0 0 a) .r.1 4 cd 0 rd lia +3 .ri .4-) f-I 1 a) i 44 ti 4-1 a) Cl) a) .4.4,.. 0 no a) Ca P4 0 ci r-I 4 0 O rci iri ft 0 +2 CO cH Co it r-1(1) 1 g O Cl) 0 ft 0 9 Cd ti) 4 0).? 04 l' X al d 0 0 k e-% +) c.) rd U2 ?P cd N (1) 0 tg) ol i cd 0 0 .0 ko 0 ? al 4 4 +3 0 srl 4-, A9 .ri, +3 0 rgl C? 0 0 wZ rd0 MU) : tC)I) r-1 $4 0 co cH 4-1 PI sr-I. 0 MikMW 0 0 54 g 0 .1-4 Cl) 0 0 CO po F-1 +30) te st-i mi , 4-, r0 eP 0 1-1; 4(1! ir0 I .4 a) r-i 0 ri cd 0 it-I 0 +2 40 0 tn MI ci-I 0)C3 cti P4 if-i, , 0 0 0? P4 k +3 :14 f_10 .N0 '4.5r4pcil itik' cHr_loct, a)800 r-I.F.1 0 +I 0 P4 P.4 Pi' a) e.1) d 0 04 ,...4 0 c.) st-1 cH 0 41 N cti0 4j O 0 0 I>mHd +) d Cl) 0, 4.''r 0 cd cti +I cH p 0 .1-1 o 0 ,0 .0 0 4.3 .0 .ri XI k PA "4' ct3 in ?cr) E-4 4 Id ' I-- I I I I I -P ? , ? ?? 40 ? ? 0; ' OS' " 0 Ow LC) VO Ve- 1-e (1) Pi ? r-4 r-I 0 t-- 0 (4 ??-?' 0 01N1 0 1 ....0000100000,10, -,WIJW4-3T If no other information had been available for this population, comparisone would have been restricted between the age struoture of the aotual and the stationary populations. However, in this case, oollateral data provide a series of estimates on total popelation (col, 6) and on life expectancy at birth (col. 7) for the entire period under review, With this information the eurvival ratios (ool, 8) appear to reflet more faithfully the actual trends inipopulation growth and in mortality improvements during this period. On thie basis the number of births expected.' to occur at the statienary level wore oomputed as in ool. 9, Similarly, the number of persona whioh would have survived at the various age groups out of the number of births registered in the corresponding periods were found to be.ao in col. 10. This illustration is given only as an example of application of the method without much claim of accuracy in the final results. A more comprehens- ive scrutiny of the original data would have been necessary if the resulte were to be taken as final answers. However, some tentative conclusions may still be reached from this application, as follows: r I t? r 11.1111,1111.1 WO ISIS'I/ 1 to 11 1 111 I oft ? I I SPI IIIISIflI.iI.IIIIIt bet: lIFt, flu::: III ? 1 IsillaS : 1 III I II I.1 ? I RI I (a) The expectation of life at birth for the population of Switzerland (both sexes) at the census date of 1950 appears to be in the neighbourhood of 69 years. (The last official'life table for the period 1939-44 gave 62.7 years for males and 67.0 years for females.) An abridged life table for that date may be reconstructed by means of the Appendix tables of this report. (b) Tho trend of mortality improvements ovei. this period, which in this example was taken ,from the series of existing life,tables, could also have been approximately derived from-the-quotients between the census population by age groups and the corresponding number of registered births. (c) Fertility,appears to have followed an undulet-ing-trend. Measured from the jaumbers required at'the stationary,levell actual births were in excess by over 20 % at the period of 1911-15, but diminished in numbers during the first World War. After a temporary revival at the end of the war, LirLhe followed a steep downward trend, reaching a. point belnw rnpinnmmnnt in the period just before World War II; the number of births increased again at an accelerated rate during the decade prior to the last census. ? (d) With the exception Of .the first quinquennial age groups, the ?, enumerated population in all other age groups was greater than that expected to survive on the basis of the registered births and the mortality conditions assumed. This.excess would indicate a positive net'migration if all factors involved in these computations were absolutely accurate. However, in view of some apparent weaknesses in the original data and the graduations used in the development of t?his example the results obtained should be treated as indicative of trends rather than as quantitative answers. In theory, the method is sound but since its findings are developed on tha basis of a few population data, these data should possess the maximum accuracy possible. To this end, the use of sampling methods or other special surveys in order to strengthen the precision of existing data or, in their absence, to procure the necessary basic figures, are particularly recommended. Once these key population data are secured and their exactness well established, the model populations offer a short cut method to arrive at results which under normal circumstances would have necessitated a far greater number of factual data and considerably more time and labour. For example, the exact knowledge of the number of live births and of infant deaths in a population during a normal calendar year, provides already a good basis for roughly estimating the life expectancy at birth for the total population. If this information is extended to cover the population in the age group under 'five years and the number of births which occurred during the five preceding I43 T7:TT.T7L'77r,7,:t7,7T )4,01mixt,;*.s.m.7,17. , !:* l'jj',07t*rlf.tl.t1 ? .40r, Aviv* Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 year the a)tre-sponding life-table may Ve based on a more seoure ground. Finally, whewtho entiru age structure of the population in known, together with the number of births whieh occurred in the reoent past, a good insight of' the population's life history may be obtained, with approximate but reasonably gooa estimates of pt levels of mortality as well an implioations about at trends of fertility, migration and of the rate of population growth in general. 4."'" 1"4 04R PV4.;11 ANN axe gngjog LA COMPARAISOU DES POPULATIONS REELLES AVEC LES POPULATIONS STATIONNATRES La prdsente ?6tude offre une sdrie de douze "populations modblon" du type stationnaire, correspondant aux 1.rincipaux niveaux do la mortalitd, l'espdranse de vie t la naissanco variant de 20 h 74 ans. Les caractdrintlques de cos modbles sont'analysdes et des mdthodes sont indiqudos pour passer rapidement cl.une population rdelle h la population strLtionnairq correepondant son'niveau de mortalitd. En utilisant une sdrie de "coefficipqts", on pout, h partir dos taux do mortalitd par age, calculer trbs simplument par groups de cinq ans luu proba- bilitds de d6cb3 classiques des tables de mortalita. De ame au moyen d'une sdrie de "taux d6 survie" reliant la population d'un groupe d'ages au nombre de naissances dont.cette.population est issue, on pout otablir une relation directe entre le nombre des naissances et la structure par age (et par sexe) de la popuqation.. De telles comparaisons donnent des renseignemonts h la foio'cur passe de la mortalitd et dela fdconditd et, indirectement, our les migrations,Rassdes et plus.g4nrlement sur lc taux d'accroissement de la population. Les "modbles" ,considdrds ici ont dtd concus pour dormer des reisultats utiles mames on l'absence dune sdrie complbte ad? chiffres our la structure de la population et l'enregistrement des statistiques ddmographiques. Avec seulement quelques chiffres,fondamentauxf cette mdthode fournit un moyen rapid? d'Obtenir des rdsultats qui normalement auraient exigd des statistiques beaucoup plus nombreuses et aussi beaucoup plus de temps et do travail. Toutefois, et c'est lh une condition essentielle de succbs, il est :tits important que les donndes servant de base aux calculs posstdent le maximum de prdcisi:on possile. ,,,,:'IT,',,. Llr;,.* , 343.3 ,.-: -?,:i ., 4-14, 4, . :: ,',4 4 ',tv?t '4.4 0 . sop!, 110 101, 1 1, n lot ii.g as ..;..arann.i...: 1141 Ifg2A -111 -III . , 4' - ,1.i. ,"1.1" f ' ! '-,.;: 'A''14 RO nl 1 11 43 . 4 . , Af.,''i' i t'::.?''''''' , ! , . h. h 1 ?e * e 81 I, a 31 111 .111 t, , ? I,r? ''''O'ff' irt 34 134$ 4443 4 ?44 f34 , 1,4 ' , r' !,?? A? 34 34? I 34 ' 441:ttiii:'00' 111 ,io".? ? ' t r ? A t* *14 1 *et ? , . 111''?o. , . e21 , ? it' 3434 44 ?4 i .4344 2 ' ' 1,114 , r? 4 on onl aft lig 4.4 ' 4 , 4 VI 3 4, 34'?,1 0.1 4 \ g g g al w)8,m4p,w assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043ROn1mnnRnnn9_-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 year the a)tre-sponding life-table may Ve based on a more seoure ground. Finally, whewtho entiru age structure of the population in known, together with the number of births whieh occurred in the reoent past, a good insight of' the population's life history may be obtained, with approximate but reasonably gooa estimates of pt levels of mortality as well an implioations about at trends of fertility, migration and of the rate of population growth in general. 4."'" 1"4 04R PV4.;11 ANN axe gngjog LA COMPARAISOU DES POPULATIONS REELLES AVEC LES POPULATIONS STATIONNATRES La prdsente ?6tude offre une sdrie de douze "populations modblon" du type stationnaire, correspondant aux 1.rincipaux niveaux do la mortalitd, l'espdranse de vie t la naissanco variant de 20 h 74 ans. Les caractdrintlques de cos modbles sont'analysdes et des mdthodes sont indiqudos pour passer rapidement cl.une population rdelle h la population strLtionnairq correepondant son'niveau de mortalitd. En utilisant une sdrie de "coefficipqts", on pout, h partir dos taux do mortalitd par age, calculer trbs simplument par groups de cinq ans luu proba- bilitds de d6cb3 classiques des tables de mortalita. De ame au moyen d'une sdrie de "taux d6 survie" reliant la population d'un groupe d'ages au nombre de naissances dont.cette.population est issue, on pout otablir une relation directe entre le nombre des naissances et la structure par age (et par sexe) de la popuqation.. De telles comparaisons donnent des renseignemonts h la foio'cur passe de la mortalitd et dela fdconditd et, indirectement, our les migrations,Rassdes et plus.g4nrlement sur lc taux d'accroissement de la population. Les "modbles" ,considdrds ici ont dtd concus pour dormer des reisultats utiles mames on l'absence dune sdrie complbte ad? chiffres our la structure de la population et l'enregistrement des statistiques ddmographiques. Avec seulement quelques chiffres,fondamentauxf cette mdthode fournit un moyen rapid? d'Obtenir des rdsultats qui normalement auraient exigd des statistiques beaucoup plus nombreuses et aussi beaucoup plus de temps et do travail. Toutefois, et c'est lh une condition essentielle de succbs, il est :tits important que les donndes servant de base aux calculs posstdent le maximum de prdcisi:on possile. ,,,,:'IT,',,. Llr;,.* , 343.3 ,.-: -?,:i ., 4-14, 4, . :: ,',4 4 ',tv?t '4.4 0 . sop!, 110 101, 1 1, n lot ii.g as ..;..arann.i...: 1141 Ifg2A -111 -III . , 4' - ,1.i. ,"1.1" f ' ! '-,.;: 'A''14 RO nl 1 11 43 . 4 . , Af.,''i' i t'::.?''''''' , ! , . h. h 1 ?e * e 81 I, a 31 111 .111 t, , ? I,r? ''''O'ff' irt 34 134$ 4443 4 ?44 f34 , 1,4 ' , r' !,?? A? 34 34? I 34 ' 441:ttiii:'00' 111 ,io".? ? ' t r ? A t* *14 1 *et ? , . 111''?o. , . e21 , ? it' 3434 44 ?4 i .4344 2 ' ' 1,114 , r? 4 on onl aft lig 4.4 ' 4 , 4 VI 3 4, 34'?,1 0.1 4 \ g g g al w)8,m4p,w assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043ROn1mnnRnnn9_-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3 year the a)tre-sponding life-table may Ve based on a more seoure ground. Finally, whewtho entiru age structure of the population in known, together with the number of births whieh occurred in the reoent past, a good insight of' the population's life history may be obtained, with approximate but reasonably gooa estimates of pt levels of mortality as well an implioations about at trends of fertility, migration and of the rate of population growth in general. 4."'" 1"4 04R PV4.;11 ANN axe gngjog LA COMPARAISOU DES POPULATIONS REELLES AVEC LES POPULATIONS STATIONNATRES La prdsente ?6tude offre une sdrie de douze "populations modblon" du type stationnaire, correspondant aux 1.rincipaux niveaux do la mortalitd, l'espdranse de vie t la naissanco variant de 20 h 74 ans. Les caractdrintlques de cos modbles sont'analysdes et des mdthodes sont indiqudos pour passer rapidement cl.une population rdelle h la population strLtionnairq correepondant son'niveau de mortalitd. En utilisant une sdrie de "coefficipqts", on pout, h partir dos taux do mortalitd par age, calculer trbs simplument par groups de cinq ans luu proba- bilitds de d6cb3 classiques des tables de mortalita. De ame au moyen d'une sdrie de "taux d6 survie" reliant la population d'un groupe d'ages au nombre de naissances dont.cette.population est issue, on pout otablir une relation directe entre le nombre des naissances et la structure par age (et par sexe) de la popuqation.. De telles comparaisons donnent des renseignemonts h la foio'cur passe de la mortalitd et dela fdconditd et, indirectement, our les migrations,Rassdes et plus.g4nrlement sur lc taux d'accroissement de la population. Les "modbles" ,considdrds ici ont dtd concus pour dormer des reisultats utiles mames on l'absence dune sdrie complbte ad? chiffres our la structure de la population et l'enregistrement des statistiques ddmographiques. Avec seulement quelques chiffres,fondamentauxf cette mdthode fournit un moyen rapid? d'Obtenir des rdsultats qui normalement auraient exigd des statistiques beaucoup plus nombreuses et aussi beaucoup plus de temps et do travail. Toutefois, et c'est lh une condition essentielle de succbs, il est :tits important que les donndes servant de base aux calculs posstdent le maximum de prdcisi:on possile. ,,,,:'IT,',,. Llr;,.* , 343.3 ,.-: -?,:i ., 4-14, 4, . :: ,',4 4 ',tv?t '4.4 0 . sop!, 110 101, 1 1, n lot ii.g as ..;..arann.i...: 1141 Ifg2A -111 -III . , 4' - ,1.i. ,"1.1" f ' ! '-,.;: 'A''14 RO nl 1 11 43 . 4 . , Af.,''i' i t'::.?''''''' , ! , . h. h 1 ?e * e 81 I, a 31 111 .111 t, , ? I,r? ''''O'ff' irt 34 134$ 4443 4 ?44 f34 , 1,4 ' , r' !,?? A? 34 34? I 34 ' 441:ttiii:'00' 111 ,io".? ? ' t r ? 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