CABLE FROM USICA LONDON TO RUEHFO/USINFO WASHDC IMMEDIATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R000500140043-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2002
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: May 2, 1980
• Content Type: CABLE

State Department review completed
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MSGNO 2 (MIXX) W'ES *02/05/80* *09:00*
ZCZC 13:56:082 (MC)
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STAT
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RUEADWW/WHITE FDUSE/NSC PRIORITY
RHEuDCE/USDDE VASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/TREASURY W~ISHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/DSO WASHDC PRIORITY
RU=MIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUF t3V^_?/VOA. MUNICH PRIORITY
SUC~UFAl3RD AIR FOPCE MiLCE'~HA! L PRIORITY
et) RUFJIS/USICA PARIS PRIORITY
RUSJAAA./USCINC=UR VAIHI\GEN GERMANY PRIORI
RUDDRRA/USNMR SHAPE PRIORI Tr'
RUFJCX/USMIJSIC\ USOEC P=RI:, PRIORITY
RUFHNAB/USICA/US\AT0 BRJSSE_S 13RICRITY
RUFHBSA/::MEMBASS Y BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUE INS/AME MBASSY DAR ES SAL; A.M PRIORITY
P,UE,CS/AMEMRASSY LAGOS PRO, ITY
INFO RU_HC/SECSTAT- WASHDC
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{
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U.--)IN-,:FO FOR PGM/2C - V04/P;- - PGM/PP. PASS =U. PASS PGM/Fib.
PGM/ RC FOR VOA AND PASS STATE FOR S(P AND !%R.
OSD FOR ISO.-ILN. JA11ES FOR SOE. MILDENHALL FOR CI. PARIS FOR
PRESS ATTACHE. USCItdCEUR F) R PAD. USICA USNA TD !BRUSSELS FOR
D_AV CLAUSSEN. AMEMBASSY B= USSELS DR USEC. SECSTATE ALSO PASS
EUR (GD0'DHY ANC FUNSETH) AND AF/S HARE. WET` HO_tU_S, /_NSC FO?
BLLCKWT_LL. OAF ES SALAAM A":C LAGCS FOR PAC' S CFFICE.
'LONDON MIDWEEK REVIEW SUMMARY TO FRIDAY, MAY 2, 1980.
L REVIEW OF BRITISH WEEKL 11E :
THE PRESIDENT AND IRAN (S TRONG CRITICISM OF AMERICAN ACTION
AND DOUBTS ABOLT AMERICAN L- ADERSHIP; AMEPICA MAY DECIDE IT
NEEDS STEADIER HANDS AT THE H_LM; RESCUE BID VAY HAVE
LESSENED IMMEDIATE DANGER 07 1 CONFRONTATION WITH RUSSIA; AMERICAN
MOVE MAY WAKE EUROPE UP TO ANG RS; AMERICINS NAVE CONSISTENTLY
MISCALCULATED CN IP.AN; IRA` COULEN'T HAVE PLANNED AMERICAN
ACTION RE TTE R ITSELF TALK IN WASHINGTON KEEPS TURNING TO
WAR; AMERICA SHOULD NOT BE BLINDLY FOLLOW7_'D).
THE PRESIDENT AND IRAN: .
ECONOMIST ECIT HEADLINED "THE SHRINKING OF AMERICA."
"JIMMY CARTER CONDUCT 1N( FOREIGN POLICY HAS ALWAYS LOOKED
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MSGNO 2 (MIXX) UES *Q) /05/80* *09:00*
A RIT LIKE A MAV PLAYING A FRUIT MACHINE: HE WOULD PULL THI LEVER,
THE MACHINE WOULD IRZMHLE, C :ANuES AND LEMON2 WCJLD WHIRR AND
FLASH, A":C THAT WOULD BE TH1;T; PERIA'S, t,C~ASIOPJALLY, A COIN
WOULD TINKQOUT,BUT USUALLY NOT. SINCE NOV=MBE 4TH LAST Y7*AR9
WHEN THE TRANIA'J M09 OVER-R- N THE AMERICAN =MRASSY IN THER,N,
THE WRENCHING G= THE LEVER HAS BECOME MORE FREN= ; IC, BUT THE
CONSE;JU_NCES OF EACH WRENCH HAJ_ REMAINED AS UN-1ELPFUL TO THE
o, PP._SIDENT AS EVER, FCR THE 4 AN WHO SLAYS FRJiT M CHINES HAS NO
f- f) "TRO' Olt='R TF" FRUTT
- , _XC..PT TC S_T THEM A-SPINNING. HAVING
MOVED DESPAIRINGLY FROM MACHINE TO MACHINE IN SEARCH OF ONE
TH. T WOULD YIELD UP ITS PRI_'E? MR. CARTER C=CID D LAST WEEK TO
FO3A KE THL F RUTT lv,4CHINES F R THE RDULETT= WHEEL, WHERE HE PUT
ALL THAT REMAINED OF HIS CAPIT.~L ON RED. HIS TROUBLES WOULD HAVE
, Br r_PJ OVER, HAD HE WON. HE 1DN' T.
HARD THOUGH I T IS TO BELIEVE, LAST WEEK'S DEBACLE IN THE
DESERT COULD HAVE BEEN WORS-THE AMERICAN MISSION TO LIBERATE
THE HOSTAGES COULD HAVE GON. WRONG 4T A LATER STAGES POSSIB'_Y
WHEN HUNDREDS CF IRANIANS HD BEEN KILLED OR WCJf1CED. MANY MORE
---- ------
TH= WOULD-B# LIBERATORS MIGHT HAVE DIED; T-H-Y MLGHT CE T TIJLY
HAVE BEE'J ThK~~:-PR"~0N~2. 0, RY CJNPARISOV WITH WHAT MIGHT HAVE
BI'E'r`9 =VENTS fill C'1 SEEK N3T QUITE AS CRUEL AS THEY DID WHEN TIE
PRESID E %T MADE HIS FIRST SA) BRDA0C4ST LAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS INDEED 3 LARGE POT__NTi4L DIVIDED IN THE BELATED SIGHT
OF !, `J AMERICA FREPA ED TO A,T MILITARILY -- PROVIDED THE LESSON
NOW LEA .NT IN AMERICA ITSELF IS NOT ONE OF DEFEATISMe IT I
NOT ACTION . S SUCH. PUT THI' ACTION -- AND ITS FAILURE IN IRAN
THAT LEAVES THE GEOPOLITISAL LANDSCAPE LITTLE L: SS DESOLATE
THAN MR. CARTER'S 7APL-IE~? NEB"~Il= HAD ALREADY MADE I T....
SO F AR FROM BEING FREED THE DIPL OMATS A R_ NOW DISPERSED
THROUGHOUT I PA,. THE UNIT STATES, C0N0LEROR 0F TH- MOON
h# `J UT ER SPACE, iI'U""I L IA D. IR' ~j--_I.S_ LE3 5 _-_I1SLATED IN
TERMS OF WORLD OPIN - ON, A':C 'EVEN IN TERMS OR ISLAMIC OPINION9
THAN' IT WIS. C= TH MOSLEN. COUNTRIES IP: T=IE REICH, ONLY SYRIA
HAD HITHERTO FCUGHT SHY CCF "'UTR IGHT CRITICISM CF IRAN FOR ITS
SEIZURE OF THE HOSTAGES. N:1W CONCEMP;ATION MAY 3E MILDE' AND
SYM?ATHER GREAT=R, FCR THIRD-WO .LD COJU%TRI=S DO NOT LIKE TO
SEE SUPERPOWER MILITARY P= F TIONS IN OTHER THI RJ-WCRLD
COUNTRIES, HOWEVER THE GREA' TH- PROVOCATION At.) THE JUSTIFICATION
I N MSRALITY OF LAW. GULF C)UNTRI_S, A L R A D Y A4,APE THAT THEIR
?ETR CDOLLAR.S CCJLD BE FROZE'. BY AMERICA AS EASILY AS IRAN'S
WERE LAST YEAR, HA U= NOW AL-C BEEN RMIND-D OF THE VULNERABILITY
4F THEIR OILFIELDS. THE Si IVER AT THE SIG 4T OF A RESTORED
eMEPICAN WILL TO ACT WAS HE=LTHY, BUT THE C.14RT_'R AN INC)MPE"E'NCE
OF THE OPERA TI CN HAS NOT HEIGHTENED THEIR RESPECT FOR AMERICA ;
MEMORIES OF THE SHAH'S DOWNFALL MUST NOW AE MIN; LED IN THE MIND,
OF MANY LE,'?.DEP..S IN THE GULF WITH MEMORIES OF TANGLED AMEBIC+N
HELICOPTERS AN BURNT-GUT TRANSPORT AERCPL.`JES.
GULF STATES LESS CONFIDE".T ?'J AMERICA AP.= GULF STATES MG-?E
READY TO CCNTEPPLATE .A000MM DPTiON WITH THE SOVIET UNION. THEY
ARE ALSO GULFT STATES EVEN; LESS PRE-ARED TO LEN) SUPPORT TO THE
CAM? DAVID PEACE TPEATY. T-, DO SO IS PECKOVED UNPOPULAR IN THE
'RA'i WORLD, SG WHY SHOULD. A:1'ONE NOW FEEL MCP--:' LIKE STICKING HIS
M NEXT OUT FOR AMERICA, HDWEVTR MUCH HE MIGHT LIKE TO SEE THE
R9
MIDDLE EAST DISPUTE S=TTLEC? EGYPT'S PR;-:-S-'J=NT SADAT CAN ALWAYS
B RELIED UPON TO SHOW POLIT ICA.L C:OJRLGE, BUT THE MORE AMERICA
ACTS IN A WAY 1H4T DE=MANDS _,T OF HIM, THE CADRE I SCLATED HE BECOMES
KNGNG HIS FELLCW AP.APS ANC THE MORE VULNZPABLE 4:= GROWS TO SOME
SORT OF UPHEAVAL IF } EG Y'T ITSEL=. THE A ILURE OF LAST WEEK'S
M I S S I O ?J H A A k wb d P;otp Fvb us-m i;& 2002/pj/23 T IA6-oF~24 rzQOAQ
1 RAQftrW 40043-8
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 i_
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UNCLA S
MSG"r0 2 (M,:XX) WES *0C/05/80* *09:00*
CARTER'S GREtTEST ACHIE EME':T IN FOREIGN CAF=AIRS, THE CAMP DAVID
AGREEMENTS, AMC FUPTH_R U"J S : TTL_D THE SECURITY OF AMERICA'S
-- a^!0 THE WEST'S -- SUPPLY OF OIL. (MOOR=) USICA LO1ND31J
0
61,
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MSGNO 13 (MIXC) d:S *J2f)5/30* *14:17*
ZCZC 19:12:07Z 64C)
A)MIN INTERNAL USE DULY
V E3 NIA-29 WUK9 WES,
( 1916)
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80 4254317 NC 4234317
MILITARY
ACTION: NON_ INFO: N:SA9 VESA/IA:-29 ODPS-S, RF9 IIEN/UK9 WES/SA9
FILE, ODPN-V9 PP?/V-A=9 :RP:9 :JR-39 IA:7/CAS-39 IAD/OSG9 NE-49 NIC/AG9,
NIO/NE, NI)fgE9 );:R-29
TOR: 0213052 MAY 80
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RUEATRS/TREASURY dASIDC PRIORITY
R(JEKJCS/OS) 4ASH)C 311DRITY
RUEAIIA/CIA aASH)C PRIORITY
RUFHVO/VOA MUNICI >RIORITY
RUDOVFA/3R) AIR =DICE MILD:NHALL ?RIORITY
RUFJIS/USICA PARIS PRIORITY
RUSNAAA/US:INCEU2 JAIHINGEVGERMAVY PRIORITY
RUDORRA/USNMR SiHA?: >RIORITY
RUFJCX/USMISSION JsO:C PARIS >RI)RITY
RUFHNA3/U3ICA/US4ATO 3RJSS:LS >RIDRITY
RUFHBSC:/AM:43ASSY 3RJSS:LS PRIORITY
RUEHNS/AM:M3ASSY OAR ES SALAAM PRIDRITY
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INFO RUEHCl;ECSTATE LASHDC
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EZ2:
USINFO FOR >GM/RC - V04/PE - :GM(PP. PASS =J. PASS PGM/FW.
PGM/RC FOR iIDA AV) DABS STATE =DR S/P AN) INR.
OSD FOR ISA-ILN. JAI-73 FOR S)E. MILDENiALL OR DI. PARIS FOR
PRESS ATTACIE. JSCIVCEUR =DR 340. USICA JSNATO BRUSSELS FOR
DEAN CLAUSSE.NC A4EM3ASSY 3RU33E-S OR JS-r:. SECSTATE ALSO PASS
EUR (G00D3Y AND = JVS:Ti) AN) A=/3 -ARE. W:iIT: HOUSE/NSC FOR
BLA;CKJILL. DAR ES SALAAM AND LADS FOR 340' S DF=IC_.
LONDON. `1IO;I; Et 2:VI -W SUMMARY TO FRIDAY, MAY 29 1980.
ADD 1....SPPI:(IV; X X X X SU>LY DF OIL.
AMERICA'S OTHER MAIN OBJECTIVE, CONTAINMENT Or THE SOVIET
UNION9 HAS AT THE 3 M= TIME 9:EN SET BACK. IRON HAS BEEN PUSHED
CLOSER TO RJSSIA, JHIC1, GODLESS AVD NEI3iBOUR-INVA)ING THOUGH.
THE AYATOLLAH KN)WS IT 73 3E, .14Y YET SEEM AN ACCEPTABLE FOUL-
WEATHER FRIEND. C=RTAINL Y9 TIE RJSSIANS MUST RECKON THAT ANY
CCHANSE OF REGIME IV TEIERAV, )R 1341 OR 'JH_REVER POWERS LIES IN'
THAT COUNTRY, UOJL) WAKE IRAN MORE LIKELY TO ALL INTO THEIR
LAP. AND MEANWHILE rHE SPOTLIGHT OF WORLD ATTENTION HAS BEEN
REMOVE) FRO4 THEIR ILLEGAL oc:J>4rION OF 4=GHANISTAN AND
FOCUSED I.NSrEAD )N TI: WiOL_Y LE;ITIMATE BUT HAPLESS
AMERICAN MISSION T) =R:- Ti. IOSTA;ES. IN MAKING A ONKEY OUT
M
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MSGNO 13 (MIX() WES *O2/35/30c *14:17*
OF AMEN, TIE AYAT)LLAH -- WITH JIMMY ;,ARTER HIS ACOMPLICE
-- HAS WI)EVED Ti= SMILE ON TiE =ACE 3= THE RJSSIA.N BEAR.
SOME 0= THE 1~REC.(4G: ON TH:i FIELD OF =OREI;N AFFAIRS'
PRESIDENT CARTER INHERITED. 3JT SOME OF IT HE CREATED IN HIS
PULLING OF )ISCOVVECTE) LEVERS OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS. AND
SOME -- P=RIAPS TiE 3JK O= ir -- if 3RDJG:HT CRASHING DOWN WHEN
HIS GAMBLE = 4ILE) IN THE DESEI-T LAST WEEK. IF LUCK SEEKS
SKILL, AS 3ATSMEV,CL4IM, CERTAINLY ILL-LJCK JOINS HANDS IN
HISTORY WITH INE'TITUDE.
WHEN PRESIDENT CARTER D= --,I)=-) ON TIAT 5AM3LE HE HAD
FOUR THINGS TO GAIV: THE LIBERATION OF THE HOSTAGES, A
PROPAGANDA COUP =0R TIE UNITE) STATEES, A DEMONSTRATION OF THE
LESSON THAT THE JVITED STATES WOULD NOT ALLOW ITSELF TO BE PUSHED
AROUND INDEFINITELY, AND HIS )W4 R=-ELECTION AS PRESIDENT NEXT
AUTUMN. WHEN THE PRESIDENT Ci)ISE TO GM3_E AND LOST, THE FIRST
TWO AIMS WERE GCVIE, THE LAST TWO LEFT U3 IN Ti--- AIR. THAT
RISKS WOULD OUTWEIGH GAINS WAS TIE 4P?RAISAL PUT TO MR. CARTER
BY HIS SECRETARY OF STATE, MR. CYRJS VAVCE, WIEN HE RESIGNED ON
THE MONDAY 3EFOR_ THE MISSION, EVEN BE:=ORE HE KNEW WHAT LAY IN
STORE AT T43AS.
WHY THEM DID rH= aR=SID=VT R ,u
'
O
AD
G
_
dIi IT-
MR. CARTER
HAS BEEN GEVUINE_Y MORE TOJCI:) 3Y THE HOSTAGES' IMPRISONMENT
IN TEHERAN THAN )TIER RECENT PRESIDENTS MIGHT HAVE BEEN: THAT
REFLECTS W7 _L ON 11'1 AS 4 IUMIN 3EING, BADLY )V HIM AS A PRESIDENT
WHO HAS CONSISTENTLY =4ILE? TO KEE' THE HOSTAGE-PROBLEM IN
PERSPECTIV SIVC_ Ci3IST?4A5 IT
A
'
H
S OCCJ
IED 4 DIS'RQPORTION4TELY
LARGE SHARE OF 113 A).4INISTRArIOVe3 ATTENTIONS, WHILE AFGHANIAN
HAS OCCU?IE) A DIS'R)P)RTIDNU ELY SMALL ONE. THE HOSTAGES
0 WERE NOT THE ISSJE ON WHICH .4IERICA SHOULD HAVE RESOLVED NO LONGER
TO HAVE SAM) WT C