MAY 7 1979 PRC MEETING/REVIEW OF DOD DRAFT CONSOLIDATED GUIDANCE, 12 APRIL 1979

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002000040001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 17, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 3, 1979
• Content Type: MF

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Talking Points on Soviet Defense Spending
1980-1985
I. Trend during 1965-1979 -- 4 to 5 percent annual growth.
II. Factors Influencing Future Defense Spending
A. Forces for Change
1. P K=a:c~----=r',-yok -- mo zanhic and ener problems
compounding long standing ineff iciency and lagging produc-
tivity. GIZP_groth~r~oeb]3_ ==r- 1 to less than 3 percent
by mid-1980s.
2. Impending politicaLaucrP~G,n -- Different leaders attach
different pr;nr_,__=.t, t~_aoa r ; thus at least some potential
for change in succession period.
B. Forces Favoring Continuation of Long-Term Trend
1. Soviet concern over Western military programs, NATO 3perce_nt
goal and Chinese threat.
2. Perceived Soviet equiremens for future forces require costly
high technolos~luton 1, examples are defense against low-
level bomber and cruise missile attack; MX threat to surviva-
bility and effectiveness of ICBMs; ASW; theater air and nuclear
imbalance.
3. Level of weapons testing activities currently is about the same
as that min s since mid-1960s. This will tend to increase
spending because of cost escalation associated with new
systems.
4. Level of capital construction in Soviet defense industries is
ver hi h, suggesting increased defense production in 1980s.
III. Outlook
A. Economic difficulties won't force Soviets to cut defense spenin
B. Programs in train strongly suggest continued growth at or near
4-5 percent through 1985 with or without SALT.
C. Soviets may seek through political means such as arms control
negotiations to limit cosnpeti n.with US in costly, high
technology weapons.
DERIVATIVE CL BY
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9 May 99
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Resource Management Staff
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
RMS 79-0316
3 May 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA:
FROM:
F
pu y to e DCI for Resource Management
F ec or, o icy Guidance Office
SUBJECT: May 1979 PRC Meeting/Review of DoD Draft
Consolidated Guidance, 12 April 1979
1. This memorandum is for information only. No action is required.
2. There are no issues of concern with the OSD Draft Consolidated
Guidance (DCG) to concern you as the DCI. The program guidance is com-
patible with the NFIP. There are several items of interest within the
DCG:
a. "The NATO Long Term Defense Program as accepted by
the Defense Ministry and Heads of Government is tantamount to
mandatory guidance. Thus, US programs must conform to LTDP com-
mitments except where specific US reservations have been ex-
pressed by the President or the Secretary of Defense."
(IV.A.I., p.5.)
b. A new section has been added to the DCG (Chapter A.),
Defense Policy Guidance. Its major sections are:
1) National Objectives and Policies
2) Defense Policy, Military Strategy and
Planning Guidance
3) Requirements and Priorities
3. If time permits, it is recommended that you:
a. Read the Overview and Summary at the colored signal;
b. Scan Chapter A., Defense Policy Guidance.
4. There is no indication that the PRC meeting to review the DCG
will deal with the issues of the DCG as such. The Secretary of De-
fense's primary concern is that the FYDP is going to be underfunded.
THIS DOCUMENT UNCLASSIFIED
WHEN SEPARATED FROM ATTACHMENT A ~'~r+t~'~q ~~~ CL BY .701725
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SUBJECT: 7 May 1919 PRC Meeting/Review of DoD Draft Consolidated
Guidance, 12 April 1979
a. What can we buy within the present Consolidated
Guidance?
b. How well does what we buy meet the needs of national (~ ~)
security?
g ques ions.
He has directed the development of a set of issue papers to address the Tius.ame
followin t'
c. With added funding increments, what added forces
can be bought and maintained?
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d. How do these additional increments add to security?
These issue papers are to be cast in terms of the relative US/Soviet force
balance in the following areas:
o Strategic Forces
o NATO
o Persian Gulf
o Korea
It is anticipated that a set of the issue papers will be available to
you prior to the PRC meeting.
5. None of your equities are expected to be at issue in this meeting.
The meeting provides you an opportunity to:
a. Support, the__Sec.Def in your common concern about overly
tight funding limits.
b. Feel the wind from 0MB and develop sensings concerning the
manner in which you want to approach program review.
6. Attachment B is an index of background material available in the
accompanying white notebook that may be useful to you in the event there
is discussion of various threats.
Attachments:
A-Draft Consolidated Guida
B-Index of Background Mate
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? SUBJECT: 7 May 19/9 PRC Meeting/Review of DoD Drat Consolidated
Guidance, 12 April 1979
Distribution: DCI/RMS 79-0316
Original - DCI w/atts
1 - ER w/o/att A (Att B only)
1 - D/DCI/RM w/o/atts
1 - RMS Registry w/o/atts
1 - PGO Subject w/o/atts
1 - PGO Chrono w/o/atts
25X1A DCI/RMS/PGO 1141 (3 May 79)
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