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Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 17, 2002
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Publication Date: 
November 6, 1978
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PDF icon CIA-RDP81B00401R002000120006-4.pdf4.31 MB
Approved For Release 2002/08128 :CCkA-LRI P81 800401 R002000120006-4 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment 6 November 1978 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence FROM . Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment SUBJECT: : Strategy for the Shah 1. In our view the Shah has only a very limited time to turn the situation around even if the new military government succeeds in restoring order. 2. Essentially, what the Shah must do is to create a conviction among the diverse groups which oppose him that he has recognized the need to change priorities and direction in various ways. Merely saying that he is doing so will probably not be adequate given the strong feelings and doubts about him which have been manifested in recent weeks. Consequently, the Shah should be encouraged to take a series of actions which will dramatize the fact that he has changed nr ties and rPro~nized the need for reforms. This is the context within which the various proposals should--6e resented: a. The request for a group of ipternational la,,yers to draft an election law and oversee its carrying out; b. The request to the orld Bank for a mission to review the program for development; c. The request to the IMF to advise on wage rates: d. Perhaps other requests for explicit international advise or missions to assist on other economic issues. CL BY 027334 E2, IMPDET SECRET State Dept. review completed Approved For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002000120006-4 Approved For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002000120006-4 e. The creation. of a respected commission to weed out corruption. 3. In pre ese changes the Shah might well use the method urged by~of talking informally on TV and dealing frankly with the past abuses or mistakes which these measures could be designed to overcome. 4. Only if the Shah is able to re-establish his own llegitimac,, and creiih~~ity with at least some of the groups who are critical 25X1 C reinforce the effects of his own actions; they cannot be a substitute for them. Approved For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002000120006-4 25X1 C 25X1A UNCLASSIFIED CI OPERATIONS CENTER 6 November 1978 Item #1 0740 EST 3 w deli - ... eQ a .-s s 7 i 7 Z. is 't7z ?e 10 P. ii, i,P t-.t -..-l L i 7 t'~ s~ i.? t . 7., ad s? . x ^? ` L L M { .s. I - T Q 7 :.. .. l7L1 .L.. i7'es21 i= i7i E. i:.. ... These comments represent the initial aandfefint~ati~ve~rea n /1I and of th9Q grejM ~ c t}7e C6I&,'~6 0401 8002000120006-4 ~.~7t :......a f~ t ~.[ztt. ~F Li L 1 - . ' 7 7 7 Approved For Release 2002/08/21 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002000120006-4 HIS - PRESENT . - 1 .Z : -.? ij= CHARGE ~ [ T IN : i.i slit MAINTAINING L + ~r AS FOR 23?.F Tr. [ - iii- ^ t RN D WILL i GUc.Li{ MIN LSS+i3 OF HOUSING i:fiif URBAN DEVELOPMENT i [ t [:[ [ WHILE a? wi - ?i411a: t RTi7NTt.t ~itt [.~ HIS PRESENT ii)iilt MINISTRY OF ENERGY WILL BE .i..}? HILL M A I N T A I N I N G H F. L ir ~]T?~T-Y OF CULTURE 7:NJ iit'i5 ARTS t{ 1 1 i iei T tt i ;iiE T{ iININ:. AS EDUCATION HIGHER EDUCATION: WILL BE RR E n t.-cp CHARGE RSt 1i3Gi::f F'';- 2 f- -T. WELL RS THE ~ T l..'.I ~ES5 UNTIL THE r OTHER i: [[:INI S'R~- . Eii .1 T +I L + iiL i HE CHARGE OF THE 2i~PPOai4. fED. THE UNDi.ii -.- 't LMLFMf.-^= WM- r. i.i i ^ oHE iif$i) i~LT iH ii't FUNCTIONS. 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ZiF 'Approved For lease 2002/08/21-: CIA-RDP81 BO0401 RO02000120006-4 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE ~''PGr ?,1 TEHRAN 10616 0612382 ACTION 'SEA-11 , SSA1ZS IN O OcT-01 ISO-00. NEAE-00 SAA-01 10-14 SES-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-05 L-ti1 INF.-1;d L-03 NSAL-CZ CSC-05 PA-01 SP-02 SS-15 ICA-11 CO?AE-00 . EB.-i2 LAY-Z SIL-01 DCE-15 SOE-02 SY-05 OPR-02 USSS-00 SYE-00 A-02 CC-06 CCO-00 MCT-02 HA-05 AID-05 OMB-01 ;t SCS-06 FBOE-0+0 SSC-00 /145 ------------------ P 8 P 251025Z NOV 78 FM AMEMBASSY TFE-4 AN TO SECSTATE UASftDC PRIORITY 1403 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE TEHRAN 10816 .-E.O. 11652:N/A 0613252 /40 TAGS: i LAB, In SUBJ: THE DETERIORATING LABOR SITUATION IN IRAN M OF T3'r' OS 1.. SUMMARY. THE LABOR SITUATION, AS A MICFtOC ECONOMIC-POLITICAL SITUATION IN IRAN AS A CHILE, ISZ DEGENERATING RAPIDLY. TIE NIOC STRIKE HAS ASSUMED ALARMING PROPORTIONS, THE IRAN AIR STRIKE HAS C AND INTERNATIONAL IPAN COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN ALL DOM STI AI NS CO POriATION OF IRAN (;'CI) HAS THE TELECOMMUNICATIO ONCE AGAIN BEEN AT LEAST PARTIALLY AFFECTED BY JOB ACTIONS. LOSED C IV ELY? E MANY GCVEPNMENi MINISTRIES REMAIN EFFECT R BECAUSE OF STRIKEIN'G WORKERS. STRI iti_ L. L? L:.t i FFr- _ -. ._. L - ? } 1 : L1:J 5 i b' ? .~jd+ ' , ?5 SS.,=__5 lsS F.- F ISIi it 11LiF3-sf__:: .: ---- -~ii'IS5 Z/s. I!S ii e4?.tl-~i.FF=,. ~Y~~.F-' F---?? . _F?s -_- 34 tr {. S -5- -. F Si. i :S ! 'f T w]Y i -I ii F 3 , F '.r - _ -_ ~- - t:t .4 5 f AU ~ - ? . . . . - -.*x_i:'it z- .~Fii~ _?. l iY:4? .. I!5zi _. I5I1 !-. --.._~__ i.?~_ OTi'LL -515. -~z ~t :i.... i4:. iE:r ?5 - . - rc i:R tx Tf i -Sf~ S;T t?+ 'f-. .?1 ~l it sr it ??~?~Z?S 1;-T; f 3 3 t t:=.3._..r'. 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