CONVERSATION WITH SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, 21 FEBRUARY 1980 (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002300080003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 18, 2002
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: February 22, 1980
• Content Type: MFR

Approved For Release 2002/01/30 : CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002300080003-9
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22 FEB 198Q
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Conversation with Secretary of Defense,
21 February 1980 (U)
1. We had a long discussion on covert action in general.. It is
3. The Secretary raised the question of Soviets in Afghanistan
and what we think they are going to do now that everything is turning
more to worms for them than even we had expected. I gave my view that
they will probably react much as we did in Vietnam: being forced to
change their military tactics to adapt to the local situation; putting
in more forces; and being dragged more into going out into the field to
operate directly. Beyond that, I thought the most important thing they
would do would be to make efforts to cut off the supply of arms and,
particularly, ammunition to the insurgents. They could do this with
respect to those that had been coming from the Afghan army through
? desertions or capture. They would have more trouble doing it and cutting
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 Approved For Release 2002/01/3b : CIA-RDP811300401AOUH06080003-9
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STRATEGIC FORCE COMPARISONS IN NIE 11-3/8
Static Indicators
1. Delivery vehicles
2. Weapons
3. Weapon yield
4. Weapon accuracy
5. Survivability of vehicles
6. System reliabilities
Traditionally each has been-compared to U.S. values;
a total of six measures of comparison
Quasi-dynamic indicators
Over the past two years the six static indicators have been
combined into either of two measures: the amount of area
that could be destroyed; or the number of hard targets that
could be destroyed. This adjusts for the non-equal relationship
between the indicators and yields two measuresfof comparison.
Dynamic indicators
Only DOD has calculated the likely outcome of war fighting
exchanges. These calculations extend the quasi,-dynamic analysis
of normal targets to actual targets; and adds consideration
of tactics, execution capabilities and various uncertainties.
Approved For Release 2002/01/30 : CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002300080003-9
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