NFIB DISCUSSION OF STATUS OF ANALYTICAL EFFORTS ON THE SOVIET BRIGADE IN CUBA AND RELATED ISSUES (Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002400110045-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 10, 2003
• Sequence Number: 45
• Publication Date: February 1, 1980
• Content Type: MF

SECRET NOFORN
Approved For Rele0 2003/04/22: CIA-RDP81800401 R000 0110045-8
1 February 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM
SUBJECT
PB/NSC Coordination Staff
NFIB Discussion of Status of Analytical Efforts
the Soviet Brigade in Cuba and Related Issues
II
25X1
1. At the end of the next NFIB meeting you will be discussing the
attached paper (Tab A) prepared by NFAC in response to your questions
about the state of the Community's analytical effort on the brigade. To 25X1
prepare for that meeting, I suggest you review the highlighted portions
of the paper and read I "Notes" on our handling of the 1A
brigade (which he provided me informally and is attached at Tab B).
2. The following are some major issues and suggested talking
points you might want to consider discussing at the NFIB meeting:
a. What program of research should now be undertaken on
Soviet activities in Cuba (and on the Cuban military)?
-The NFAC paper (Tab A) to. which you all contributed
was very helpful.
-Suggests certain other lines of analytical pursuit
that would be worthwhile for all to undertake. e.g:
-The hypothesis in response to question 5b that
"the Soviets may now be less concerned with US
sensitivities about their activities in Cuba"
may be a good starting point. What would the
dynamics of the Soviet-Cuban relationship likely
be if this proves to be the case?
-Have already asked NFAC to work on an analysis
comparing the configuration of theeSoviet brigade
with Cuban units sent abroad. An in-depth look
at Soviet brigades and forward area units (such
as used in Afghanistan) would be equally valuable.
(DIA to do?)
b. Interagency communication
-Glad to know that major review will take place. next 25X1
month under sponsorship of 'NIO/USSR-EE.
s 1_2 t`'I CL S - _..,.
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SECRET NOFORN ` `' - _--
 25X1
3. AddILIonal actions j g
response to the questions you posed indicate a heavy reliance on current
intelligence to signal when in-depth analytical effort should be undertaken
(see answer to question 7). Consequently, thesis-- "tardy
identification (of the brigade) resulted less... from inadequate collecti?fXlA
than from inadequate analysis"--could well continue to be true today
unless the Community develops a strategy for research (and improvement
of analytical methods). Perhaps a follow-up memo to Bruce Clarke, along
the following lines, would be useful as a means of getting NFAC to begin
to frame a research strategy:
"Your responses to my questions on the Soviet brigade in
Cuba were very helpful and the paper you prepared will get
our discussion at NFIB off to a good start. But I was
disturbed by the statement in response to question 7 that
"the production of finished intelligence on the brigade is
keyed to the receipt of significant new information on
Soviet activities in Cuba." Aren't we falling into the
same trap that caused problems in the first place: i.e.
failure to question analytical assumptions and heavy
reliance on current intelligence cause us to look at an
issue. I'd appreciate your thoughts on the kind of
research program we should undertake on the nd 2 5X1
the Soviet-Cuban relationship in general."
SECRET NOFORN
Approved For Rele a 2003/04/22: CIA-RDP81 800401 R0W0110045-8
c. The post-mortem on the brigade. You might want to
describe your perspective on the importance of this
effort. (At Tab C is a copy of the terms of reference
that you intended to mention at the u breakfast
on 24 January which was cancelled.)
ou mi ht want to consider taking: The
Attachments
As stated
25X1A
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