DCI S CONGRESSIONAL WORLDWIDE WRAP-UP(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002400220032-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 13, 2003
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: January 3, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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3 January 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: NIOs and NFAC Office Directors
FROM : PB/NSC Coordinator
SUBJECT : DCI's Congressional Worldwide Wrap-up
80-3000/2
1. Subject testimony before most Committees is likely to occur in
February; however, the HASC has requested the to appear on 24 January
2. While the Director has not made any final decision as to how
the briefing will be structured, he is inclined toward the following
approach:
(two weeks before any other Committee).
? The focus will be on those issues/areas/topics wherein
key decisions will be faced (by the Congress as well as
the Executive) in the coming year.
? The objective will be to provide the Congress with
perspectives they may not now have on how such issues
affect:
- The potential for instability in key regions and
countries
- The security and stability of supply of vital raw
materials
- US-Soviet-PRC Relations
? Such a briefing might therefore go along the following
lines:
- Oil as a vital interest. This leads to key position
of Saudi Arabia
-- The Saudis after Mecca, and Iran, and Afghanistan
-- Role of Egypt-Israeli Peace Treaty; the Palestinian
question
-- Other key Arab states
-- Treat Persian Gulf states together
(Iran and Afghanistan will certainly come up and need to
be developed as separate briefings, but in terms of the
general structure the events in those countries will be
viewed as catalytic events and how they affect fundamental
US interests and decisions.)
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- The US-Soviet-PRC Relationship. Treating this major
issue allows the development of various events and
situations which affect that interaction, e.g.
-- Iran and Afghanistan
-- Pakistan and India
-- Southeast Asia
-- ASEAN
-- Sino-Soviet Border
-- The Koreas
-- Military Posture and Balance
- Central America and the Caribbean: Cuban and Soviet
involvement. Events in our own "backyard," and how
we deal with foreign involvement will be a major
issue in the coming year. Treated here will be:
-- Soviet Brigade
-- Nicaragua and El Salvador
-- Honduras and Guatemala: Next?
-- Caribbean prospects
-- Nature and extent of Cuban and Soviet involvement
- Africa
-- Southern (Rhodesia, Angola, Namibia, South Africa)
-- East (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya, Sudan)
-- North (Western Sahara, Libya-Egypt)
- Covering these national interests regionally will
be done in the context of some fundamental worldwide
issues, e.g. the nuclear and conventional military
balance, arms control, world energy situation, key
food and demographic problems and the nature and
extent of Bloc adventurism.
3. Regardless of how the Briefing is finally structured, work can
commence now on the various position or background papers from which the
actual briefing text will be drawn. Provided as an attachment is the
initial list of topics which should be developed, first as an outline
(noting where and what graphics would be used) for DCI review and then
as a paper.
? The first cut at these outlines should be completed by
11 January with the first draft of papers to follow a
week later.
? Regardless of whether dealing with military force balances,
Soviet or Cuban presence in Africa, country or regional
attitudes toward events or prospects for stability in any
given country/region, the focus should be on the following:
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- What have been the significant changes since last
year's briefing?
- What are the basic trends at work and what do they
portend?
- What are some of the key (sensitive) indicators that
we (and therefore they, the Congress) should be alert
for?
- In areas where key decisions are likely to be made,
care should be taken to provide either a judgment,
or enough information, regarding the effects of any
US decision.
? The DCI has already sent two memos with some of his thoughts
regarding some of the background material to be developed
(on SALT and LRTNF) and more can be expected. It will be
an iterative process. The thrust outlines next week will
generate more feedback.
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Attachment:
As stated
cc: DD/NFA
DDO
LC
ES
EA/ DC I
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3 January 1980
DCI Worldwide Wrap-up: Topics for Development
Strategic (nuclear) Balance (based on NIE 11-3/8)
NATO-Warsaw Pact Balance Assessment
Sino-Soviet Border Military Balance
Arms Control Agreements (SALT, TNF, MBFR, ABM, CW, Indian Ocean,
ASAT, CTB, NPT, CAT). This should include:
- Where would we be with and without agreements
- Any new/significant breakthroughs, tests, etc.
- Prognosis for agreements including inhibiting factors
(- Some, like NPT, allow for a slightly different approach, e.g.
what are we likely to see in the way of proliferation)
World Energy
- Our forecast now (how good was last year's)
- Major trends in supplies, production policies, consumption
(OPEC and non-OPEC)
- Both current intell, how we got where we are, and prospects
Afghanistan
- Same as Iran
- Foreign policy (new direction(?), effect on adversaries, clients,
friends, others)
- Succession
- Nationalities situation
- Military strengths and weaknesses
- Ability and intentions for adventurism
- Economy (potential and constraints)
- A new relationship with US? with PRC?
- Same as USSR, plus a close look at "Normalization: One Year Later"
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Regional and country assessments: within each of the following
regions an individual country assessment covered with a regional
perspective wherein everything is tied together, especially as
related to fundamental questions (e.g. Palestinian question, oil,
outside intervention, etc.)
- Middle East
- Southeast Asia
- The Koreas
- Central America and the Caribbean
- Southern Africa
- East Africa
- North Africa
Miscellaneous country papers to be done independently (since they
may not be covered in the above)
- Spain
- Portugal
- Italy
- Turkey
- Greece-Turkey-Cyprus
- Yugoslavia
- Albania
- Romania
- Poland
- Indonesia
- Philippines
- Taiwan
- Venezuela
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Chile
- Zaire
- Nigeria
- Uganda
Miscellaneous papers not specifically affecting a single country
- Resurgence of Islam (what it is and is not; its potential
to affect (favorably or unfavorably) US interests)
- World Food Situation
- Non-Aligned Movement
- Law of the Sea
- Perceptions of UN Effectiveness
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