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December 14, 2016
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May 13, 2003
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January 3, 1980
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PDF icon CIA-RDP81B00401R002400220032-0.pdf174.29 KB
Approved For lease 2003165/23T~ 00402400220032-0 3 January 1980 MEMORANDUM FOR: NIOs and NFAC Office Directors FROM : PB/NSC Coordinator SUBJECT : DCI's Congressional Worldwide Wrap-up 80-3000/2 1. Subject testimony before most Committees is likely to occur in February; however, the HASC has requested the to appear on 24 January 2. While the Director has not made any final decision as to how the briefing will be structured, he is inclined toward the following approach: (two weeks before any other Committee). ? The focus will be on those issues/areas/topics wherein key decisions will be faced (by the Congress as well as the Executive) in the coming year. ? The objective will be to provide the Congress with perspectives they may not now have on how such issues affect: - The potential for instability in key regions and countries - The security and stability of supply of vital raw materials - US-Soviet-PRC Relations ? Such a briefing might therefore go along the following lines: - Oil as a vital interest. This leads to key position of Saudi Arabia -- The Saudis after Mecca, and Iran, and Afghanistan -- Role of Egypt-Israeli Peace Treaty; the Palestinian question -- Other key Arab states -- Treat Persian Gulf states together (Iran and Afghanistan will certainly come up and need to be developed as separate briefings, but in terms of the general structure the events in those countries will be viewed as catalytic events and how they affect fundamental US interests and decisions.) Approved For Release 2003/05/23 : f?40 FR002 ~0 '20b3 - SECRET 25 25X 25X 25X1 25X1 'T SECRET Approved For ease 2003/05/231 CIA-RDP81 BQ 04016400220032-0 - The US-Soviet-PRC Relationship. Treating this major issue allows the development of various events and situations which affect that interaction, e.g. -- Iran and Afghanistan -- Pakistan and India -- Southeast Asia -- ASEAN -- Sino-Soviet Border -- The Koreas -- Military Posture and Balance - Central America and the Caribbean: Cuban and Soviet involvement. Events in our own "backyard," and how we deal with foreign involvement will be a major issue in the coming year. Treated here will be: -- Soviet Brigade -- Nicaragua and El Salvador -- Honduras and Guatemala: Next? -- Caribbean prospects -- Nature and extent of Cuban and Soviet involvement - Africa -- Southern (Rhodesia, Angola, Namibia, South Africa) -- East (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya, Sudan) -- North (Western Sahara, Libya-Egypt) - Covering these national interests regionally will be done in the context of some fundamental worldwide issues, e.g. the nuclear and conventional military balance, arms control, world energy situation, key food and demographic problems and the nature and extent of Bloc adventurism. 3. Regardless of how the Briefing is finally structured, work can commence now on the various position or background papers from which the actual briefing text will be drawn. Provided as an attachment is the initial list of topics which should be developed, first as an outline (noting where and what graphics would be used) for DCI review and then as a paper. ? The first cut at these outlines should be completed by 11 January with the first draft of papers to follow a week later. ? Regardless of whether dealing with military force balances, Soviet or Cuban presence in Africa, country or regional attitudes toward events or prospects for stability in any given country/region, the focus should be on the following: -2- Approved For Release 2003/05/23 : CA- 0401 R002400220032-0 SECRET 25X 25X 25X1 Approved For Fuse 2003/05/23 : 8 l B004016400220032-0 - What have been the significant changes since last year's briefing? - What are the basic trends at work and what do they portend? - What are some of the key (sensitive) indicators that we (and therefore they, the Congress) should be alert for? - In areas where key decisions are likely to be made, care should be taken to provide either a judgment, or enough information, regarding the effects of any US decision. ? The DCI has already sent two memos with some of his thoughts regarding some of the background material to be developed (on SALT and LRTNF) and more can be expected. It will be an iterative process. The thrust outlines next week will generate more feedback. 25X 25X 25X1A Attachment: As stated cc: DD/NFA DDO LC ES EA/ DC I Approved For Release 2003/0?VgA&lA-RDP81 800401 R002400220032-0 25X1 SECRET NOFORN Approved For 4se 2003/05/23 : CIA-RDP81800401 400220032-0 3 January 1980 DCI Worldwide Wrap-up: Topics for Development Strategic (nuclear) Balance (based on NIE 11-3/8) NATO-Warsaw Pact Balance Assessment Sino-Soviet Border Military Balance Arms Control Agreements (SALT, TNF, MBFR, ABM, CW, Indian Ocean, ASAT, CTB, NPT, CAT). This should include: - Where would we be with and without agreements - Any new/significant breakthroughs, tests, etc. - Prognosis for agreements including inhibiting factors (- Some, like NPT, allow for a slightly different approach, e.g. what are we likely to see in the way of proliferation) World Energy - Our forecast now (how good was last year's) - Major trends in supplies, production policies, consumption (OPEC and non-OPEC) - Both current intell, how we got where we are, and prospects Afghanistan - Same as Iran - Foreign policy (new direction(?), effect on adversaries, clients, friends, others) - Succession - Nationalities situation - Military strengths and weaknesses - Ability and intentions for adventurism - Economy (potential and constraints) - A new relationship with US? with PRC? - Same as USSR, plus a close look at "Normalization: One Year Later" -1- Approved For Release 2003/05/23 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002400220032-0 SECRET NOFORN SECRET NOFORN Approved For ase 2003/05/23 : CIA-RDP81800401 4400220032-0 Regional and country assessments: within each of the following regions an individual country assessment covered with a regional perspective wherein everything is tied together, especially as related to fundamental questions (e.g. Palestinian question, oil, outside intervention, etc.) - Middle East - Southeast Asia - The Koreas - Central America and the Caribbean - Southern Africa - East Africa - North Africa Miscellaneous country papers to be done independently (since they may not be covered in the above) - Spain - Portugal - Italy - Turkey - Greece-Turkey-Cyprus - Yugoslavia - Albania - Romania - Poland - Indonesia - Philippines - Taiwan - Venezuela - Brazil - Argentina - Chile - Zaire - Nigeria - Uganda Miscellaneous papers not specifically affecting a single country - Resurgence of Islam (what it is and is not; its potential to affect (favorably or unfavorably) US interests) - World Food Situation - Non-Aligned Movement - Law of the Sea - Perceptions of UN Effectiveness Approved For Release 2003/0? E ClAGR081 B00401 R002400220032-0