RHODESIA -CUBANS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020048-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 5, 2004
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: October 3, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

S E G R E I
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020048-1
otes
3 Oct 78
(Rhodesia I. Looking at peetpects for Cuban military involvement in Rhodesia
Map with analogous to Angora aLEth w pia
Leaders)
A. Pressures for:
1. Sov. hubris of success
2. Sov concern at possibility a settlement will be reached
excluding them
-Establish position as an actor on scene
3. State disarra i effect' s
Nkomo's ZAPU troops - Mugabe's also
Serves as opening
25X1 C
B. One strongest pressure against is: Reluctance Frontline States
even Patriotic Front accep more Soy influence
Especially Kaunda
Less so Machel
1. Another inhibition is PFsense of ultimate success LL
But Mugabe may be worried/
,Vd4' J vw~ Ll
2. On Sov side - believe any mil calculations they make would take
into account danger of inci in So. frica to intervene
that's one reason
they're keeping Cuban advisers away from border.
H. Looking at military equation -
(Chart of
If 10,000 + being considered -
LOC from Sov Union/Cuba
LOC) Considerable drain
But as feasible as Ethiopia/Angola
(Road/Rail) / Important point - approach from ports/airhe
-T f2, 1~ e
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r
Beneguela out
Road unimproved
Wet season?
Not major problem from east -
But vulnerable to interdiction if Rhodesia/So. Africa
undertake before in pla'c`e=-- Red dots
Also look at -
Combat terrain
Zambia - (map correlation) (color coding)
(Terrain Y1) Difficult crossing for main force units - 10,000 concept
West of Falls
Good terrain
E. of lake
But bad terrain behind
No bar to infiltration
Neither side significant mechanized forces
7-8 tanks, 75 APCs among Zambian forces
Also 14 BMPs recently sent to Zambia
Minor, 60 APCs, defensive forces in Rhodesia
Talking build up - Cubans/So. Africa
Diffic ' 1 en re if So. Africa in place - but if not or
i made initial push - goo errain
Mozambique Terrain
(Terrain #2) 1. North
-Poor terrain
-Relatively easy to defend if in place
-But close t L sbury
-But Chimoio LOC vulnerable
(Terrain #3) 2. South - Open
S C R E T
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 S E C R E T
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-Next to So. Africa - open also
III. If So. Africa came in even 10,000 Cubans not handle S. Africa &
(OOB Chart) Rhodesia
U likely 10,000 could get in place w/o pre-emptive attack - w/all
equipment needed
Because only 120-150 miles from border to Salisbury
IV. More likely to see gradual bull up - defensive Cuban forces - 2 purposes
1. Train ZAPU/ZANU
Miserable showing of 5 ZAPU commando teams
Attempted to cut power lines, etc.
Rhodesians apparently have intercepted or forced to turn back
1 Cuban, 1 Soviet general to ZAPU as of Sep.
2. Gradual build up forces to deter attack on base camps
ZANU
Could be very effective in inhibiting Rhodesians
If gradual need not be so alarming as bring pre-emptive - LOC
Need be no turning point
Would establish Sov position
V. Expectation
Build up largely Cuban but mixed Ethiopian force
Cubans seem want reduce in Ethio ' -
With 16,000 can afford to w/o losing control
Manpower - not anxious bring home
Probably think big dividends - side of angels
Emphasis Mozam niue
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Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/08: CIA-RDP81 800401 R0'28 9?48-1
Patriotic
Front
Nyerere, Julius
Patriotic
Front
Mozambique
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 Approved For Release 2004/07108 - - 81 800401 R002800020048-1
Africa 25X1
d
Hu
Central African
Empire
Ivory
Coast
Togo
Ghana
Iccra
aannr* 1
Lome
ibrevill
Gabon
> Fee
ai
Hey
Nigeria
aLagos
`Porto-Novo Cameroon
Malaboik'I Yaounde
Eq Gu.eea
ie area -/
( -T5
Tripoli
Botswana
Gaborone /_
Kigali
Z a i r e Rwanda i. _ Lak
Lake
Tanganyika
*Sah bu
Southern
Rhodesia
l (U.K.)
Port Sod.n
Red
Tanzania
Sea (Yemen
wait Persian
\ Cell
Saud i
Arab i a
l4
N o r t h
A I I a n t i c
Ocean
Morocco
S out h
A t I a n t i c
0 c e a n
Soviet Air Routes
to Southern Africa
Previously used to deliver
equipment to Lusaka
Previously used in
Ethiopian airlift
-- - Ethiopian Airlines
500 1000 Kilometers
500 1000 Mlos
Boundary represenlal on is
^m -cessardy autho,tauve
he(gnd
Spain
Sao
Eq Guinea
Algiers
South Attica' *
V,:,?, '.;' pWindhoek
!Mombasa
gwe
Somalia
Mogad iscio
Caspian
Sea
/t
~ Dares Salaam
Mo~ambigUe
Comoros
Moroni
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Aral
Sea
Seychelles
Victoria.'.
*Antan an arivo
ascar/ Mauritius
Port Lous*
25X1
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Tshikapa
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Kabalo.
Kabinda
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1sAtoo4, gib, P(et Retief. SWAZIL1AND
R~hle ham. Ladysmith
;N Kimberley . I~
d 0 ~ ~`irbet 'Richard's Bay
oemfontein I M'asu Pietermaritzburg
I F enr-an _1 7 .
SOUTH AFRICA ' ? ` -Pusan /.K4kstad
De Aar' VV
Aliwal _ , Port Shepstone
?1 , -.1 .1 Nor h iQ .uln(ata
Victoria West MiddelbrI(B e ,~.-.tis,
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!nha ..~ GREAT S?s;'...
ARCO King William's Town East London
OudtshoSrh Port Alfred
;Worcester UiteT hag%Port Elizabeth
George l umansdorp
dasdoo, RI%ndam osse/baal
AG'.: HAS
o r^ V ?Sumbawanga
Gwelo.
? Major Port
Q Major airfield
? Major bridge
Road
- - Unimproved road 1/
Railroad
I_. ivampwa ?...-? J ICE
ldrityre . E CHESTERP
{ \\ (Madagai
Milange J *Angoche
queumane Maintirano?
M2rromeu ILLS BARREN
(Madagascar)
Kilometers 400
BASELS DA INDIA
(Fr.) n
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% Moioni
F
Beroroha .
Morombe.
.~~ iLE EUROPA lhd
(Fr.)
s
tJ
Ambovombe
CAP SA
 ( Djambala
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ibangou
Mayumba ?Sibiti
Loubomo Brazzayillet
Kayes.
'/./ Cuo io' Kinshasa en e
Pointe-Noire Tsheta g
Mbanza-Ngungu
Cabinda- ) Matadj-?-.. Popokabaka
-Boma ?? Maquela
Santo Antonio do Zombo ?, Kasongo-
do Zaire t? Lunda
CarmOna? O
0
Chiange'
Kikv
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.Tsumeb
Otavi 0.0Grootfon
N A M I B I.
(SOUTH-WEST AF~
Kartbi6 0kahandla
Swakopmund; Windhoek (g OGobabis
Walvis Bay.: of 14 2483
WALVIS BAY"!' _Rehbbpth.
(South Africa)
1- tt
(vlariental
{
KeetmanshoopO
Luderitz!
Seeheim
T ~ S
.Sbd
Malmesbury?
Paarl
Cape Towne
CAPE OF GOOD HOPEBre
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Severely restricted
Generally unsuitable
- Hard surfaced road - - --- Loose surfaced road
snot e~~.a~,oo~ .o merers
25 50 75 Kil,meta,s
Sambawlzi
xi
Rhodesia-Zambia
Border Areas
Suitability for Cross-Country Movement
Generally suitable
Moderately restrctea
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I',::1TE:;C
a (inbia
Selou
Umniati-
Featherstone
Sherwood
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 J/ Matcrashangd
Makaha
iP
pproved For Ref as 004/07/08: CIA-RI
0626M ZOWNIozambique
Border Areas
Suitability for Cross-Country Movement
V
angara
IRW
SF,Rkn Oa
tla'xr `Q
Severely rest cted
ea Generally urs_.~able
Ra Iru ad
?T,~a~gie cnjradir -CONFIDENTIAL
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Tjolotlo.
Nyamandhlovu*"~
Queens
Mine,
Rhodesia Border Areas
Suitability for Cross-Country Movement
Generally suitable Severely restricted
Moderately restricted Generally unsuitable
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 QApRroved/Ess&r7 ease 2004/07/08: CIA-RDP811900401RQ0286
Queens
Mine,
A Umvuma
Gwelop
..,MOZAMB'1QUE
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Enkeldoorn
Buhera
'Gutu
i )N sDENTlAL
0 25 50 75 Kilometers
75 Miles
xi
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Southern Africa Order of Battle Estimates
Ground Forces
Active
South Africa
45,000
Rhodesia
10-12,000
ZAPU
12,000
ZANU
10,000
Mozambique
25,000
Zambia
12,800
Tanzania
28,000
Angola
30,000
Reserve or in
Training
210,000
6,000
10,000
3,000
UNK
2,000
10,000
UNK
Paramilitary
3,000
9,500
-
-
UNK
5,840
1,430
8,000
Armored Vehicles
2,087
60
-
-
175
83
200
740
Fighter Aircraft
170
Other Insurgent Strength Estimates
UNITA
SWAPO in Angola
Active
20,000
Active
5,000
Reserve or
Training
in
Reserve or in
Training
2,000
7,000
FNLA
SWAPO in Zambia
Active
3,000-5,000
Active
1,500
Reserve or
Training
in
Reserve or in
Training
1,000
2,500
SECRET
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020048-1
(Only included in DCI's Notebook)
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 Rh oe9taa lRMFho It41fl : VIAMP6644 011P 20048-1
Percent Change in Real GNP
V
South African Share of Rhodesian Exports
1965 1975
Rhodesia: Foreign Exchange Reserves
Because of important trade,
financial, and manpower links,
the Rhodesian economy moves
in tandem with South African
economic activity.
With Salisbury's isolation from the
West, South African purchases of
Rhodesia's exports have increased
sharply.
The wages and salaries earned by
Rhodesians working in South Africa
help support the balance of payments.
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Rhodesia: Net Migration
+240
+360
+1,595*
-2,279
-3,676
-5,761
-4,793
+(Immigration)
-(Emmigration)
*Largely Portuguese immigra
**Month of July only.
Confidential
602757
-5,147
-1,111**
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Rhodesia: Real GNP Growth Rates
Confidential
602756
1975 1976 1977 1978*
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