PANAMA BRIEF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020054-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 18, 2001
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: October 12, 1978
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 200f109/63 R dIATRDP81 B00401 R002800020054-4
DCI Notes
0800, 12 Oct 78
PANAMA BRIEF
1. Two weeks ago - SADR (Polisario) recognition
One-man Panamanian foreign policy often is intemperate and
contradictory
(Central Amer. Map) This case - importuning of Polisario delegation 5/78
Similar Angola 1976 - 4th LA to recognize
Typical muscle flexing on minor issues
Recognizing SADR involved no loss
Significant - didn't respond 1977 before treaties
II. Looking at Panamanian Foreign Policy since Treaties. See 3 basic trends.
1. More independence of U.S.
2. Search for wider support for protocol of guarantee of canal neutrality
3. Seeking independence/scope for Panamanian economy
III. Superimposed on these are outbursts of Torrijos intemperance such as
just gone thru, e.g., Nicaragua
e.g. Nicaragua
- Torrijos surely anti-Somoza
-Believed Guatemala & Salvador helping Somoza
-Believed US needed a prod
- Strongly influenced by Perez emotional commitment & acts to topple
Somoza helped push Torrijos into action
-Torrijos pulled back somewhat, but still:
-Willing to recognize provisional FSLN government--if set up
-Are aiding FSLN covert )y - maybe equipping Panamanian "volunteers"
IV. Over and &4 hi ` -
above outbursts, first thrust towards greater independence
of US.stems from fact Torrijos feels freed having caac4. -d- impact his
foreign policy moves on treaty negotiations with US A
-More independent--means largely more neutral & opening to socialists--e.g.
(Expanding Diplomatic
Iations Map) Having been expanding relations - 1/3 past decade communist
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 Approved For Releas%2@0d1/
/L63y CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002800020054-4
Only 3 left - USSR, PRC, NKorea - continual reports contact NKorea
Would expect USSR/PRC following coming into effect of treaties 10/79
In meantime, also looks USSR/E. Eur as area to expand markets,
investments & aid, lessening econ dependence on W. Hemisphere &
US in particular
e.g., Late August/early September - Panamanian delegation to USSR & E. Eur.
2 topics - economics & neutrality
V. Neutrality of Canal
All but E. Ger agreed sign treaty guarantee - E. Ger thinking
VI. Economics
A. Also looking ways increase trade w/East bloc.
-Received promise $300M hydroelec project - If should introduce
Sov into Panama by 10/79-?
-Plus return - Colon Free Zone use?
B. Status of Panama Economy
-Not in bad shape but -- Does have problems
-GDP growth rate zero 75-76, 1.6% 77, maybe 3% this year
(Export Graphic)
Expanding banana production - 30000 tons E. Eur
Surplus sugar stocks and production
Copper coming on line '80
Attempting to increase industrial production to increase
em 1o ff nt - but means a need for markets
C.
To try open opportunities in Aug - created new office to
strengthen relations w/socialist countries and conduct a
"commercial offensive"
(Trade Partners
D.
Also trying to strengthen Latin America economic relations, e.g.
Graphic)
-Venezuela & Ecuador principal LA trade partners
-25%/60% Panama's oil imports
-Venezuela has loaned money
-$30 M credit from Argentina in May should expand trade
-Mexican technical assistance and credit line agreement
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 Approved For Release 241/691O : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
E. Trying for Arab loans and oil since early 70s, but
-Resisting being drawn into mideast arguments
-Sept Israel visit chilled Arab relations persist
F. Relations with socialist countries, e.g., Cuba
VII. Overall
A. Hypersensitivity about Canal won't go away
Suspicious of US - not Carter
B. Another step down in sensitivity to US concerns when
go into effect in October 79
C. But overall relations remain good, if uneven.
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP8-1-B00401R002800020054-4
Middle Americ,
United States
Mazatlan
Mexico
New Orleans:
I
A Mexico Veracruz
Acapulco
P a c i f i c
O c e a n
El Salvador 'Nicaragua
Guat~mla
400
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Trinidad
Ppr~-orsaa~n it Todayu
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
Key to Map Showing Expanding Panamanian Diplomatic Relations
Communist
Albania
8-78
Algeria
2-73
Australia
Pre-1968
Angola
5-76
Argentina
Pre-1968
Austria
Pre-1968
Bulgaria
1973
Bolivia
Pre-1968
Belgium
Pre-1968
Cuba
8-74
Colombia
Pre-1968
Brazil
Pre-196'
Czechoslovakia
1973
Cyprus
1972
Canada
Pre-1968
Germany, East
1974
Dominican
Pre-1968
Chile
Pre-1968
Hungary
9-75
Republic
China, Republic of
Pre-1968
Poland
1973
Ecuador
Pre-1968
Costa Rica
Pre-1968
Romania
10-71
El Salvador
Pre-1968
Denmark
Pre-1968
Sahara Arab
7-78
Guatemala
Pre-1968
Egypt
Pre-1968
Dem. Republic
Guyana
3-73
Finland
12-75
Vietnam, South
8-75
Haiti
Pre-1968
France
Pre-1968
Honduras
Pre-1968
Germany, West
Pre-1968
India
Pre-1968
Greece
Pre-1968
Indonesia
1978
Guinea
3-73
Iraq
6-76
Hong Kong
Pre-1968
Jamaica
Pre-1968
Iran
1-75
Lebanon
Pre-1968
Israel
Pre-1968'.
Libya
3-73
Japan
Pre-1968
Pakistan
Paraguay
Pre-1968
Pre-1968
Korea, South
Malta
1-76
Senegal
4-72
Mexico
Pre-1968
Sri Lanka
Pre-1968
Monaco
1969
Syria
2-76
Netherlands
Pre-1968
Uruguay
Pre-1968
New Zealand
Pre-1968
Nicaragua
Pre-1968
Norway
Pre-1968
Peru
Pre-1968
Philippines
1973
Portugal
Pre-1968
Singapore
Pre-1968
South Africa
Pre-1968
Sweden
Pre-1968
Switzerland
Pre-1968
United Kingdom
Pre-1968
United States
Pre-1968
Vatican
Pre-1968
Venezuela
Pre-1968
Yugoslavia
Pre-1968
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 Western
Sahara
wb ic"
?_?_
-
:
Mali
Niger
Chad
IlcfoerA
; W^' T
Ethiopia --
`C.A.E. -Central African Empire
F.R.G. -Federal Republic of Germany
G.D.R. -German Democratic Republic
U.A.E. -United Arab Emirates
akist a
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
G
Matta
unisia
Oman
Sudan (5 a1 (Aden)..
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020
Mongolia
I rctic Ocean
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 Panama: Diplomatic Relations
~- -
Apro pves
Canada
Costa Rica Panarn
y ana
Canal Zone' Surinam
(US) ~COlombia ~~cxichGuiana(Fr.)
South
Pacific
Ocean
Relations established before 1968
Relations established after 1968
tPlans ti establish relations in the near future
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
Panama's Exports of Principal Commodities
US Million $
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Bananas
65
64
49
59
62
66
Refined petroleum
22
24
86
128
66
68
Shrimp
15
17
15
19
34
30
Sugar
6
9
27
49
26
22
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
Panama's Export of Principal Commodities
120
100
I I I
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4
 P,.,nama's FO A Bvia O Release 2001/09/03: CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020054-4
Exports by Pr
Nldhon US S
incipal Destinations
Latin America
and Caribbean
Western Europe
Imports by Principal Areas of Origin
M Ilor US S
All 11
Others`
756
772
U
454
401
L
a
U
E
J
S
O
Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002800020054-4
nited States
atin A
nd Ca
nerica
ibbean
SSR
astern= Europe
apan
audi Arabia
thl