PANAMA BRIEF

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020054-4
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
11
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 18, 2001
Sequence Number: 
54
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 12, 1978
Content Type: 
BRIEF
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020054-4.pdf457.42 KB
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Approved For Release 200f109/63 R dIATRDP81 B00401 R002800020054-4 DCI Notes 0800, 12 Oct 78 PANAMA BRIEF 1. Two weeks ago - SADR (Polisario) recognition One-man Panamanian foreign policy often is intemperate and contradictory (Central Amer. Map) This case - importuning of Polisario delegation 5/78 Similar Angola 1976 - 4th LA to recognize Typical muscle flexing on minor issues Recognizing SADR involved no loss Significant - didn't respond 1977 before treaties II. Looking at Panamanian Foreign Policy since Treaties. See 3 basic trends. 1. More independence of U.S. 2. Search for wider support for protocol of guarantee of canal neutrality 3. Seeking independence/scope for Panamanian economy III. Superimposed on these are outbursts of Torrijos intemperance such as just gone thru, e.g., Nicaragua e.g. Nicaragua - Torrijos surely anti-Somoza -Believed Guatemala & Salvador helping Somoza -Believed US needed a prod - Strongly influenced by Perez emotional commitment & acts to topple Somoza helped push Torrijos into action -Torrijos pulled back somewhat, but still: -Willing to recognize provisional FSLN government--if set up -Are aiding FSLN covert )y - maybe equipping Panamanian "volunteers" IV. Over and &4 hi ` - above outbursts, first thrust towards greater independence of US.stems from fact Torrijos feels freed having caac4. -d- impact his foreign policy moves on treaty negotiations with US A -More independent--means largely more neutral & opening to socialists--e.g. (Expanding Diplomatic Iations Map) Having been expanding relations - 1/3 past decade communist Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Approved For Releas%2@0d1/ /L63y CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002800020054-4 Only 3 left - USSR, PRC, NKorea - continual reports contact NKorea Would expect USSR/PRC following coming into effect of treaties 10/79 In meantime, also looks USSR/E. Eur as area to expand markets, investments & aid, lessening econ dependence on W. Hemisphere & US in particular e.g., Late August/early September - Panamanian delegation to USSR & E. Eur. 2 topics - economics & neutrality V. Neutrality of Canal All but E. Ger agreed sign treaty guarantee - E. Ger thinking VI. Economics A. Also looking ways increase trade w/East bloc. -Received promise $300M hydroelec project - If should introduce Sov into Panama by 10/79-? -Plus return - Colon Free Zone use? B. Status of Panama Economy -Not in bad shape but -- Does have problems -GDP growth rate zero 75-76, 1.6% 77, maybe 3% this year (Export Graphic) Expanding banana production - 30000 tons E. Eur Surplus sugar stocks and production Copper coming on line '80 Attempting to increase industrial production to increase em 1o ff nt - but means a need for markets C. To try open opportunities in Aug - created new office to strengthen relations w/socialist countries and conduct a "commercial offensive" (Trade Partners D. Also trying to strengthen Latin America economic relations, e.g. Graphic) -Venezuela & Ecuador principal LA trade partners -25%/60% Panama's oil imports -Venezuela has loaned money -$30 M credit from Argentina in May should expand trade -Mexican technical assistance and credit line agreement Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Approved For Release 241/691O : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 E. Trying for Arab loans and oil since early 70s, but -Resisting being drawn into mideast arguments -Sept Israel visit chilled Arab relations persist F. Relations with socialist countries, e.g., Cuba VII. Overall A. Hypersensitivity about Canal won't go away Suspicious of US - not Carter B. Another step down in sensitivity to US concerns when go into effect in October 79 C. But overall relations remain good, if uneven. Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP8-1-B00401R002800020054-4 Middle Americ, United States Mazatlan Mexico New Orleans: I A Mexico Veracruz Acapulco P a c i f i c O c e a n El Salvador 'Nicaragua Guat~mla 400 Boundary representation is not necessarily authoritative Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 A t l a n t i c O c e a n Trinidad Ppr~-orsaa~n it Todayu Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Key to Map Showing Expanding Panamanian Diplomatic Relations Communist Albania 8-78 Algeria 2-73 Australia Pre-1968 Angola 5-76 Argentina Pre-1968 Austria Pre-1968 Bulgaria 1973 Bolivia Pre-1968 Belgium Pre-1968 Cuba 8-74 Colombia Pre-1968 Brazil Pre-196' Czechoslovakia 1973 Cyprus 1972 Canada Pre-1968 Germany, East 1974 Dominican Pre-1968 Chile Pre-1968 Hungary 9-75 Republic China, Republic of Pre-1968 Poland 1973 Ecuador Pre-1968 Costa Rica Pre-1968 Romania 10-71 El Salvador Pre-1968 Denmark Pre-1968 Sahara Arab 7-78 Guatemala Pre-1968 Egypt Pre-1968 Dem. Republic Guyana 3-73 Finland 12-75 Vietnam, South 8-75 Haiti Pre-1968 France Pre-1968 Honduras Pre-1968 Germany, West Pre-1968 India Pre-1968 Greece Pre-1968 Indonesia 1978 Guinea 3-73 Iraq 6-76 Hong Kong Pre-1968 Jamaica Pre-1968 Iran 1-75 Lebanon Pre-1968 Israel Pre-1968'. Libya 3-73 Japan Pre-1968 Pakistan Paraguay Pre-1968 Pre-1968 Korea, South Malta 1-76 Senegal 4-72 Mexico Pre-1968 Sri Lanka Pre-1968 Monaco 1969 Syria 2-76 Netherlands Pre-1968 Uruguay Pre-1968 New Zealand Pre-1968 Nicaragua Pre-1968 Norway Pre-1968 Peru Pre-1968 Philippines 1973 Portugal Pre-1968 Singapore Pre-1968 South Africa Pre-1968 Sweden Pre-1968 Switzerland Pre-1968 United Kingdom Pre-1968 United States Pre-1968 Vatican Pre-1968 Venezuela Pre-1968 Yugoslavia Pre-1968 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Western Sahara wb ic" ?_?_ - : Mali Niger Chad IlcfoerA ; W^' T Ethiopia -- `C.A.E. -Central African Empire F.R.G. -Federal Republic of Germany G.D.R. -German Democratic Republic U.A.E. -United Arab Emirates akist a Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 G Matta unisia Oman Sudan (5 a1 (Aden).. Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020 Mongolia I rctic Ocean Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Panama: Diplomatic Relations ~- - Apro pves Canada Costa Rica Panarn y ana Canal Zone' Surinam (US) ~COlombia ~~cxichGuiana(Fr.) South Pacific Ocean Relations established before 1968 Relations established after 1968 tPlans ti establish relations in the near future Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Panama's Exports of Principal Commodities US Million $ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Bananas 65 64 49 59 62 66 Refined petroleum 22 24 86 128 66 68 Shrimp 15 17 15 19 34 30 Sugar 6 9 27 49 26 22 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 Panama's Export of Principal Commodities 120 100 I I I Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 800401 R002800020054-4 P,.,nama's FO A Bvia O Release 2001/09/03: CIA-RDP81B00401R002800020054-4 Exports by Pr Nldhon US S incipal Destinations Latin America and Caribbean Western Europe Imports by Principal Areas of Origin M Ilor US S All 11 Others` 756 772 U 454 401 L a U E J S O Approved For Release 2001/09/03 : CIA-RDP81 B00401 R002800020054-4 nited States atin A nd Ca nerica ibbean SSR astern= Europe apan audi Arabia thl