[SOVIET ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE 1980S ARE LABOR AND ENERGY]

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81M00980R000200040043-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2004
• Sequence Number: 43
• Content Type: OUTLINE

Approved For Release 2004/12/02: CIA-RDP81 M00980R00020004004IfIWe /IAId!S
1. The key variables likely to condition
Soviet economic performance in the 1980s
are labor and energy.
a. Labor. A slowdown in labor force
growth begins this year and will
continue through the 1980s. Moscow
can do little to alleviate this
situation. Measures such as
keeping older workers on the job
longer, or shortening the term of
service in the armed forces would
only provide a small one-time
boost to labor force growth.
b. Energy. The Soviets are not finding
and developing new oil deposits rapidly
`enough to offset declines in their older
fields, while production techniques now
in use focus on short-term gains at the
expense of maximum lifetime recovery.
Even if development of other energy
sources is pushed to the maximum, we expect
a sharp slowdown in the annual rate of growth
Approved For Release 2004/12/02 : CIA-RDP81 M00980R000200040043-9