CIA VS. WORLD FOOD ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81M00980R001200160033-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 5, 2005
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: May 9, 1978
• Content Type: SE

Approved For Release 2005/03/14: CIA-RDP81 M00980R0012001a33-6~~
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Question: USDA and CIA,'as well, have often been wrong on
their estimates of crop productions, etc. Provide for the record an
analysis showing the CIA estimates and projections that correspond
to projections made by either the World Food Board or its USDA prede-
cessors during the past three years. Highlight the differences in
the estimates, and show what the actuals were so.that the Committee
can determine who has made the best estimates during this time period.
[The information follows:]
CIA VS. WORLD FOOD ESTIMATES
Agency Soviet Crain Crop Estimates
a / t
1974 1975
1976
1977
USDA
CIA USDA CIA
USDA CIA
USDA CIA
-------------- Million Metric Tons ---------------
April. .....
May .........
June .......
205
200
190
215
July .......
205
195
195
225
August .....:
210
180
195
220
September ...
205
175
205
220
October
200
160
215
215
Official Soviet
Crop Figure 195.7 140.1 223.8 195.5
In assessing the above estimates, it should be noted that--
through the USDA Task Force on the USSR that has now been in
existence about five years, there is a much improved interchange
of information and cooperation regarding the Soviet crop.
Due to the classified nature of the information, the CIA
estimates should be obtained directly from the CIA.
ROUTING DATE SENT 1
Approved For Releas -2005/113/1. ? .CIA-RDI 81 M00980R001200160033-6