NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 1979

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81T00368R000400020059-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 3, 2012
• Sequence Number: 59
• Publication Date: September 20, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
20 September 1979
Top SOGF-eA
CO NID 79-221JX
ter 9
Copy 4 21
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Briefs and Comments
USSR: Concern over Iran o o a o 0 0 0 o a o 0 0 1
Israel-Lebanon: Status of Cease-fire. . . . . . 2
Iran: Oil Production. 0 0 0 o e o 0 0 0 0 o a o 3
Iraq-Syria: Tensions Continue o 0 o a o 0 0 0 0 4
India: Drought.
Portugal: Centrist Movement Bows Out.
Mali: Forced Retirements in Military. 0 o a ? 25X1
International: Human Rights Abuses. ?? 0 0 0 0 8
Sweden: Post-Election Negotiations. 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
Overnight Reports ? o a o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the
final section, will often contain materials that update
other articles in the Daily.
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The Soviets remain concerned about the uncertain po-
liticaZ situation in Iran, but probably see no alterna-
tive to attempting to maintain good relations with the
Khomeini-Bazargan government.
An article in Izvestiya earlier this month contained
the sharpest criticism of events in Iran to date. The
article reflected the USSR's increasing frustration over
its inability to overcome the anti-Soviet bias of the
Ayatollah Khomeini regime. The Soviets are worried by
Iranian statements of support for the Islamic rebellion
in Afghanistan, the repression of pro-Soviet leftists in
Tehran, and Iran's default on natural gas deliveries to
the USSR. The Soviets have been particularly sensitive
to accusations by Iranian leaders of Soviet interference
in domestic political affairs.
Despite growing misgivings and public criticisms
over the direction of Iran's revolution, the USSR is
still trying to develop a positive relationship with Iran.
Soviet officials say they envision no major change in pol-
icy, and in some public messages Moscow has depicted the
Iranian revolution in generally positive terms.
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Sea.,
a
V
Palest, ne 1 Controlled/
Tyree.
S se' ce
/
1 "nh
nnr
Litani River
CoritrllicI Z
`pne
S y Pia
Golan
Heights
Christian Dominated;
4 -- Armist e lens
(Israeli-occupied)
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The cease-fire late last month that halted some of
this year's heaviest shelling in southern Lebanon has
held up well, despite some minor flareups.
The Israelis are charging that two indicators of
potential trouble in the region--Palestinian infiltration
into the UN zone and attacks on Christian forces by
Palestinian and Lebanese leftist groups--have continued.
Israel says that the Palestinians have moved some 70 men
into the UN zone since the cease-fire, which it asserts
brings the number there to between 500 and 700.
Israel wants to avoid being saddled with responsi-
bility for a new round of fighting. Renewed hostilities
in Lebanon would further cloud US-Israeli relations,
especially if they occurred during Defense Minister Weiz-
man's current negotiations in Washington for new US mili-
tary assistance.
Weizman has publicly warned, however, that he will
order new retaliation if the Palestinians try to take
advantage of Israel's tactical restraint. The Israelis
almost certainly would not hesitate to resume their
counterterrorist policy in response to major Palestinian
attacks on Christian positions, Palestinian rocket barr-
ages of populated areas in Israel, or attempts to mount
cross-border terrorist raids.
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Iranian oil production is now reported to have re-
bounded to 3.9 to 4 million barrels per day, after faZZ-
ing to about 2.7 million barrels per day for two weeks
in Zate August and early September because of worker un-
rest. Despite the upswing, further disruptions in pro-
duction are likely. Shortages in skilled manpower and
poor security conditions are two factors contributing to
a poor outlook for Iranian oil production.
Technical expertise in the National Iranian Oil
Company has deteriorated sharply in the past few months.
Many senior and middle-level employees have resigned,
and many other workers have faced threats of physical
harm from coworkers. Crews have been reluctant to do
routine maintenance work at the oilfields and along the
pipeline system where security is questionable.
Few experienced foreign workers have returned to
Iran since the exodus of expatriates early this year.
For the past several weeks the government has been try-
ing to improve the security situation but has done little
to attract skilled foreign technicians. Maintenance and
oilwell workovers are far behind schedule. Only six of
the 37 onshore drilling rigs are still operating. Major
repairs to rig engines and drive mechanisms will require
foreign specialists. Routine well maintenance performed
using these rigs reportedly is now taking twice as long
to complete as when foreign supervisors were present.
The Oil Service Company of Iran has projected a need
for at least three dozen active rigs to keep capacity at
about 6 million barrels per day. Because only six rigs
are now working and maintenance is falling behind, the
excess capacity Iranian officials felt they created by
lowering output is being rapidly eroded. We do not know
how fast available capacity is being reduced; some in-
dustry experts have said it could drop below 4 million
barrels per day in the next year unless maintenance and
workover rates improve sharply.
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IRAQ-SYRIA: Tensions Continue
Relations between Iraq and Syria remain frozen de-
spite concerted Arab efforts to mediate between these two
stalwarts of the anti-Sadat front. For now, both sides
are careful not to Zet their dispute shatter the unified
Arab stance against Egypt, but Sadat may nevertheless
benefit from their new tensions.
Despite Saddam Husayn's obvious hostility toward
Syrian President Assad, there are indications that the
Iraqi leader wants to contain the quarrel in the inter-
est of maintaining pressure on Sadat. Earlier this
month Iraq fulfilled a pledge made at the Baghdad summit
last spring to aid Syria financially by making a $91.6
million payment to Damascus. The Iraqis, moreover, con-
tinue to use the recently opened oil pipeline across
Syria, thereby providing transit revenues to Syria.
At the Nonaligned Summit, the two sides submerged
their differences to work for a condemnation of the
Egyptian-Israeli treaty and to press--unsuccessfully--
for suspension of Egypt from the Movement. Such coopera-
tion has given a temporary boost to the anti-Egyptian
front, which has faltered over the summer months.
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INDIA: Drought
India's summer monsoon rains are substantially below
normal for the first time in four years, and drought con-
ditions threaten food crops in many growing areas. This
summer's crop has also been hurt by shortages of diesel
fuel and electric power, both essential for irrigation.
Unless rain comes during the next few weeks, the
summer of 1979 could rank as one of the driest on record.
Summer food crops, largely rice, account for 65 percent
of annual foodgrain production.
Despite the poor crop outlook, the government is
unlikely to resume grain imports in the short term.
India has 20 million tons of foodgrain stocks, which
should enable the government to wait until mid-1980 to
estimate next summer's crop before setting import policy.
Food shortages could occur in some areas this fall
if the country's overtaxed transport system fails to move
enough grain to drought-stricken regions. Scarcities and
rising food prices could have political repercussions,
affecting the outcome of the national election to be held
in December or early January. The caretaker government
of Prime Minister Charan Singh will be on the defensive
while Indira Gandhi and other opponents try to capitalize
on discontent over the food situation.
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The Independent Social Democratic Action--touted by
many observers in Portugal as a strong hope for the coun-
try's political center--announced yesterday that it will
not take part in the legislative election in December.
The announcement is particularly dramatic in light of re-
cent indications that the center-right Social Democrats
are closing ranks with their more conservative partners
in the "Democratic Alliance." Such a concentration of
the right should have assisted the emergence of centrist
political formations, but the Independent Social Demo-
crats--plagued by the weaknesses of a fledgling organiza-
tion, an inability to attract enough prestigious individ-
uals to their electoral slates, and some internal dis-
sension--were unable to exploit it.
Both the Socialists and the Social Democrats will
probably attempt to attract Independent Social Democrats
to their lists in hopes of garnering the few votes the
movement might have received. The movement's inability
to contest the election greatly diminishes its chances
of becoming the moderating and stabilizing centrist force
Portugal needs.
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MALI: Forced Retirements in Military
Malian President Traore last week retired several
military officers who opposed his plan eventually to re-
turn the government to civilian rule. The military has
ruled Mali for 11 years, and many officers fear they will
lose influence and perquisites under a civilian-dominated
government. The forced retirements may well increase
military discontent
He quashed a coup plot by disgruntled officers
last year.
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INTERNATIONAL: Human Rights Abuses
Amnesty International, the leading independent human
rights organization, is turning its attention to human
rights violations by "liberation" movements and terrorist
groups. At its annual policy meeting in Brussels last
week, the organization announced it would henceforth
monitor and combat possible human rights violations by
militant underground forces. Its secretary general ac-
knowledged that governments have been urging his group
in this direction for some years. Amnesty International's
tendency in the past has been to concentrate on human
rights abuses by governments dealing with internal secu-
rity problems, with little or no comment regarding vio-
lence by the political opponents involved. Spokesmen for
Amnesty International have indicated that groups in Latin
America and Northern Ireland may be objects of the organ-
ization's attention.
SWEDEN: Post-Election Negotiations
The election results on Sunday did not give a clear
message of what the electorate wants. On the one hand,
the conservatives gained strength; on the other hand,
the Communist Party picked up enough seats to entitle it
to membership on the foreign affairs and defense com-
mittees in parliament for the first time. Sweden's
three nonsocialist parties, which as a result of the
election have a one-seat parliamentary majority, will
have difficulty forming a coalition because the most
conservative of the three, the Moderate Party, now is
the largest. If the three fail to reach agreement,
either of the two other parties of the group--Prime
Minister Ullsten's Liberal Party or former Prime Minister
Falldin's Center Party--may agree to a coalition with
the Social Democrats. At any rate, the Social Democrats
may challenge a weak nonsocialist government after the
nuclear referendum scheduled for March.
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the Intelligence Community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
West Germany
The US Embassy in Bonn reports that while campaign-
ing in Essen and Cologne yesterday, Christian Democratic
Union - Christian Social Union chancellor candidate
Strauss exchanged angry words with young leftwing demon-
strators in episodes that were subsequently shown on
nationwide television. In Essen, Strauss was obliged
to end his prepared speech after only 20 minutes, and
then ironically "thanked" his hecklers for showing their
true colors. Strauss later told newsmen that the demon-
strations clearly revealed the connection between Com-
munists and Social Democrats. The Embassy observed that
the confrontations brought credit to neither side and
augured ill for the hopes for a rational and fair elec-
tion in 1980.
A bomb concealed in a bicycle exploded in a Jeru-
salem market yesterday, killing one person and injuring
at least 42 others, according to Israeli police. Pal-
estinian sources in Beirut said that Al Fatah was re-
sponsible for the attack and that all of the guerrillas
have returned safely to base. The attack was described
as the worst of the 27 bombings that have occurred in
Jerusalem this year.
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AFP from Hong Kong reported yesterday that Presi-
dent Zia promulgated a new law barring members of un-
registered political parties from taking part in the
17 November elections. The Pakistan People's Party of
former Prime Minister Bhutto, who was executed in April,
and the Pakistan National Alliance had rejected the gov-
ernment's earlier decree requiring compulsory registra-
tion of parties as undemocratic, and both parties had
planned to avoid the registration requirement by having
their members enter political contests as independents.
Reacting to the new law, National Alliance Party chief-
tain Mahmood asserted that elections held without partici-
pation of the country's major political groups would be
a "farce."
El Salvador
The US Embassy in San Salvador reported that Presi-
dent Romero has introduced a new draft electoral law for
consideration by the country's political parties, the
lawyers' association, civic groups, and other interested
citizens. The Embassy observed that this procedure ap-
pears commendable, and in keeping with recommendations
made to the government that it involve the political
parties in the electoral reform process.
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