ANALYSIS OF SOVIET AND NATIONAL FORCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLISH CRISIS, (SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 3, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 1, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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I~no~ery >tn~lysis report
Analysis of Soviet and
National Forces Associated with
The Polish Crisis
Top Secret
Top Secret
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1. ~~ This report presents an imagery-derived analysis of the increased readiness levels of the
Soviet combat maneuver divisions in the three western military districts (MD) and airborne divisions
between In addition, the report indicates the relationship of
increased readiness to the Polish/USSR political situation and to the General Staff and KGB/UPS
satellite communication activity' (Figure 1). Tables 1 through 4 address the current status of the 28 Soviet
divisions in the three western military districts (Table 1); seven Soviet airborne divisions (Table 2); 20 key
combat maneuver divisions in the Northern, Cent
(Table 3); and 29 national divisions-15 Polish,
eight Czechoslovakian, and four
Hungarian (Table 4) associated with the Polish crisis. These divisions are depicted on Figure 2. Key
logistical and rear services support units are illustrated on Figure 3 and listed in Table 5; Table 6
illustrates logistics activity in the western military districts and the forward armies. Possible staging areas,
lines of communications (roads and railroads), and the postulated axes of advance for possible Soviet
intervention are shown on Figure 4. All unit designators are derived from collateral documents.z?'
OVERVIEW
2. (S/D) By mid-February 1980, increased readiness levels had been seen at nine Soviet combat
maneuver divisions (five ready and four cadre) and in three of the Soviet airborne divisions. Of those
units, the 26th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (GMRD) at Gusev had elements out of garrison as of
addition, a new ready tank division was identified at Grodno.
3. ~ The five ready divisions-the 1st GMRD and the 1st Guards Tank Division (GTD) at
Kaliningrad, the 128th GMRD at Mukachevo, the 24th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) at Lvov, and the
40th GTD at Sovetsk-and the three airborne divisions (the 7th at Kaunas, the 98th at Bolgrad, and the
106th at Tula) have remained at an increased readiness level. Two of the four cadre divisions (the 46th
GTD at Slonim and the 51st GMRD at Vladimir-Volynskiy) are no longer at an increased state of
readiness and are believed to have returned to a premobilization activity level of cadre status. It is
believed, however, that these divisions can be quickly brought back to a combat readiness level.
ANALYSIS OF SOV HE POLISH
CRISIS,
while an increased readiness posture was observed in the 97th GMRD at Slavuta (Figure 5). In
4. (S/D) A definite preparedness cycle has taken place in the process of bringing the five ready, four
cadre, and three airborne divisions, with their associated command and control, to an increased state of
readiness. The increased level of readiness was achieved in two distinct 90-day cycles (Figure 1). The
beginning of a probable third 90-day cycle is also illustrated in Figure 1.
5. (S/D) The first cycle of events was seen in early September, when five combat maneuver divisions
(the 1st GMRD and the 1st GTD at Kaliningrad, the 4th GTD at Sovetsk of the I lth Guards Army (GA),
the 46th GTD at Slonim, and the 128th GMRD at Mukachevo) achieved an increased state of readiness.
The imagery signatures that indicated the increased state of readiness in these units consisted of troop
processing (Figure 6) and at least three combat maneuver regiments observed on alert and bivouacked out
of garrison (with their supporting units) for an extended period of time, regimental rail-loading exercises,
and mobilized motor transport battalions augmented with civilian vehicles. In addition, a new ready tank
division moved into Grodno in early Septem-
ber. Since the tank division arrived at Grodno, the unit has only been observed conducting crew training.
The airborne divisions have a quick-response mission. More intense predeployment activity was observed
here than in the combat maneuver divisions. Activity seen at airborne installations that fits the criteria for
determining an increased state of readiness included signal exercises (in garrison), pallet-loading exercises
(Figure 7), the preparation of vehicles equipment to depart garrison (convoy activity), rail-loading exer-
cises, and the uploading of material at depots.
The General Staff satellite communication activity began in early September. By ~
uxiliary command and control center (ACC) was confirmed in the Warsaw area. The
General Staff maintained continuous communication with the various headquarters and subordinate units
during this 90-day cycle. This communication activity is considered an integral part of the mobilization
scenario.'
7. ~~ A second example of the 90-day cycle was seen in late November with the identification
of probable mobilization of a hospital unit in Kaliningrad and increased readiness at the 24th MRD at
Lvov, a ready division, and two cadre divisions-the 26th GMRD at Gusev (Figure 8) and the Slst
GMRD at Valadimir-Volynskiy (Figure 9). Increased readiness was also seen at three airborne divisions.
(Continued p. 10)
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Table 1.
Current Status of Combat Maneuver Divisions in the Three Western MDs
This table in its entirety is classified TOP SECRET RUFF
Military
District
l lth Guards Army
Current Current Last Level
Unit Readi- Imagery of
Status Hess Date Activity
Level'
Ist GMRD Kaliningrad Ready ICR Routine
1st GTD Kaliningrad Ready ICR Routine
40th GTD Sovetsk Ready ICR Routine
26th GMRD Gusev Cadre ICR High
Additional Divisions
3rd GMRD Klaipeda Cadre CCR Routine
56th GMRD Tallinn Cadre CCR Routine
107th MRD Vilnius Cadre CCR Routine
28th Army
46th GTD Slonim Cadre CCR Routine
Unid TD Grodno Ready CCR Low
(prob 6 GTD)
50th GMRD Brest Cadre CCR Routine
Unid MRD Brest Cadre CCR Low
5th GDS Tank Army
8th GTD Marina
Gorka
193rd TD Bobruysk Cadre CCR
29th GTD Slutsk Cadre CCR
7th Tank Army
3rd GTD Lepel Cadre CCR High
34th TD Borisov Cadre CCR Routine
37th GTD Polotsk Cadre CCR High
Carpathian MD
8th Tank Army
23rd TD Ovruch Ready CCR Routine
30th GTD Novograd Cadre CCR Routine
Volynskiy
50th TD Staro
Konstantinov
13th Army
51st GMRD Vladimir
Volynskiy
97th GMRD Slavuta
161st MRD Izyaslav Cadre
38th Army
70th GMRD Nano Cadre
Frankovsk
128th GMRD Mukachevo Ready
17th GMRD Khmelnitskiy Cadre
Routine
High
Possible preparation for field
training observed
Only crew training observed
since)
A high level of
training activity
was observed in the arty
reg, tk reg, MR reg,
and AA reg areas;
the sixty-seven 60-ton
semitrailers seen
on~~;at tk reg are gone
High High level of activity
observed in maneuver
regiments within
garrison; bivouacs
in adjacent training area,
which includes troop processing
Routine
Routine
ICR Routine
CCR Routine
*CCR-Constant combat readiness is the standard Pact term designating the peacetime posture which is usually maintained by all branches
of service. Units are not on alert and are conducting normal peacetime training. Measures are taken by the individual units, however, to
assure their ability to mobilize rapidly.
ICR-Increased combat readiness units are placed on alert and take preparatory measures in anticipation of a full mobilization. Depending
on [he political and military situation, all military forces within a country or one branch of service, one military district, or even one
tactical formation may be placed on increased readiness. Those ground forces at or near full strength and having early commitment of
deployment times might move out of garrison and into assembly, staging, or concentration areas under the cover of training exercises.
Increased readiness is a transitional phase leading to full combat readiness. The duration of this period is directly related to the nature and
the duration of the period of tension, rather than to the time necessary to complete the preparatory measures.
FCR-Full combat readiness is the highest armed forces readiness level. Full mobilization is ordered and the forces are prepared to
immediately undertake combat missions or deploy under combat alert conditions. This readiness level will only be ordered (excluding
training exercises) if there is an immediate threat of hostilities or, as in the case of the Pact intervention in Czechoslovakia, if there is an
internal crisis which requires a comparable readiness posture. All forces are intended to achieve full readiness before the outbreak of
fighting.
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This chart in its entirety is classified TOP SECRET RUFF
~ August 1980 ~ September 1980
POLITICAL
360,000 Polish
Workers on Strike
Gierek Out; Kania In
Birth Of New Labor Union
MILITARY STATUS
9st GRMD Kaliningrad
(Ready)
1st GTD Kaliningrad
Ready
'40th GTD Sovetsk
1Ready)
26th GMRD Gusev
(Cadre
46th GTD Slonim
(Cadre)
UNI D TD Grodno
(Prob 6 GTD)
{Ready)
51st GMRD
Vladimir-Volynskiy
ICadre)
1?8th GMRD Mukachevo
Ready)
24th M RD Lvov
(Ready)
97th GMRD Slavuta
(Cadre)
AIRSORNE ACTIVITY
VDV CMD Auth
Moscow/Shchelkovo
7th GAD Kaunas
98th GAD Bolgrad
906th GAD Tuia
COMMAND AND
CONTROL ACTIVITY
General Staff
Satellite Net
General Staff
(ACCT
Signal Exercise
Loading Pallets
Departed G~rrison
Parachute Un Palletized C
Material Up Loaded On Cargo Trucks
14 CUB In Engine-Ru - On-Load Formation
Sohdanty Is Legal
Purge of Party Committee
November 1980 December 1980_ J
anuary 1981
General Tension In Poland
Solidarity Strives
For Control Kania Makes Peace With
Soviets
February 1981
Solidarity Demands
40 Hour Work Week, TV Time
Farmers Unionization
Not Active Satellite Communication,
Other Communication Means Utilized
KGB/UPS Satellite
Communications
Exercise
~On Going
Moscow -Legnica Cosmos 8t'
~~ ~~
Alert/Exercise/Mobilization Artivity ~trt~1~~ Mobilized Motor Transport Battalion1- Q~,, ~ ,.~,~;.,.. t..,....,~,. ~~ ~~ niuicinnal Flomonrc r---~
National Unity Theme
Command and Control Activity
FIGURE 1. CORRELATION OF SOVIET MILITARY AND GENERAL STAFF COMMUNICATION RCTIVITY WITN POLITICAL EVENTS IN POLAND
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Table 2,
Current Status of Airborne Divisions
This table in its entirety is classified SECRET/WNINTEL
Current Last
Readiness Imagery
Level* Date
7th GAD Kaunas ICR
76th GAD Pskov CCR
98th GAD Bolgrad ICR
103rd GAD Vitebsk CCR
104th GAD Kirovabad CCR
IOSth GAD Fergana CCR
106th GAD Tula CCR
*CCR-Constant combat readiness
ICR-Increased combat readiness
FCR-Full combat readiness
Detailed derinilions of these leans may be found in the foolnole to Table I.
Table 3.
Current Status, Groups of Soviet Forces
This table in its entirety is classifred SECRETlWN1NTEL
Cureent
Unit Status
Table 4.
Current Status of National Forces
Airborne equipment on/off loading two
COCK, one CANDID at airfield
Possible palletizing observed
Thirty BMD and approx
30 support vehicles
have been removed
from sheds
Usual training activity
observed; approx 700
parachutes observed at
two installations, AL-I and AL-3
Current
Readiness
Level*
Current
Unit Status
6th Airborne Krakow Ready
7th Sea Landing Gdansk Ready
1st MECH Legionowo Ready
2nd MECH Nysa Ready
3rd MECH Lublin Cadre
4th MECH Krosno Odrzanskie Ready
Sth ARMD Gubin Ready
8th MECH Koszalin Ready
9th MECH Rzeszow Cadre
10th ARMD Opole Ready
11th ARMD Zagan Ready
12th MECH Szczecin Ready
15th MECH Olsztyn
16th ARMD Elblag
20th ARMD Szczecinek
Ready
Ready
Ready
1st Army
1st TD Strasice Ready
2nd MRD Susice Ready
Routine On
19th MRD Plzen Ready
20th MRD Karlovy Uary Ready
4th Army
3rd MRD Kromeriz Ready
4th TD Havlickuc Brod Ready
9th TD Tabor Ready
1Sth MRD Ceske Budejouice Ready
NORTHERN GROUP OF FORCES (NGF)
NGF Hq Legnica
Rembertow Sig Bdge & KGB/UP5 - -
90th GTD Borne Ready CCR
CENTRAL GROUP OF FORCES (CGF)
18th GMRD Mlada Boleslav Ready CCR
15th GTD Milovice Ready CCR
28th Corps
31st TD Brunta] Ready CCR
48th MRD Vysoke Myto Ready CCR
30th GMRD Zvolen Ready CCR
SOUTHERN GROUP OF FORCES (SGF)
2nd GTD Esztergom Ready CCR
13th GTD Veszprem Ready CCR
93rd GMRD Kecskemet
254th MRD Szekespehervar
Ready CCR
Ready CCR
*CCR-Constant combat readiness
ICR-Increased combat readiness
FCR-Full combat readiness
Detailed definitions of these terms can be found in the footnote to Table I.
High Two PARK DRIVE stations observed
Routine ] 43 trucks were seen parade field
Routine
High PARK DRIVE and communication
exercise observed
Routine
Routine
High
Routine
Routine
Routine
Routine
At least elements
of a tk bn
and one Czech tk bn
(possible joint exercise)
7th MRD Kiskunfelegyhaza Ready
8th MRD Zalaegerszeg Ready
9th MRD Kaposvar Ready
11th TD Tata Ready
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Last Imagery Level of Remarks
Activity
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Routine Out of garrison
~~
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Routine
Routine
Routine
Routine On~~80 trucks in convoy 25X1
and signal exercise underway.
Routine Out of garrisop'
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Routine
Routine Sig bn in local trng area 25X1
Routine
Routine Two mech bn, tk bn, eng
co, out of garrison
Routine
Routine
Routine
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Routine
Routine
Routine
Routine
Routine
Routine
Routine
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Routine
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 x
Division Hq
Brigade Hq
C =Cadre stength unit
O
1 wER1VT~V ::
Tank
Motorized rifle
? Airborne
RED -Soviet Forces
BLUE -Polish National Forces
GREEN Czech,and
ungarian ational Forces
ORANGE -Airborne Division
? Increased Readiness Level
~~ ~ ` Arm area
~_.i V
IT1~LY
0
NGF
LEGNICA
WRDCLAW
? ~ BRUNT xxx \ --
` AL zs A
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
YOG~I,.AVIA
GDYNIA ;
GDANSK
POLAND
xx
0
TORUN
~ 3oG ~ za
\ '~
~ _ ZVOLEN
? KATOWICE
93G
LIEPAJA
NAVAL BASE
~OV ETSK`~?'a
KALINN.ORAO
GUSEV
? WARSZAWA
(WAASAWI
Q
C ~
LUBLIN /
ULADIMI ~j
VOLYNSKY-
MlKACNEVO, ~
~__-
1GAD~,
0
GROONO
>nxx~' ~
~ ~zxxx
/ 38i
NANO-fRANKOVSK
R,f?MANIA
VILNIt~S
r
r.~.
ROVNO 97G
--~ i%
xrixz ~ /
13~ ~ ~ xx
~ 3oG o a
xx ~ C :..
tsj NOVOGRAO
/mix VDLYNSKY
~z9G
~SLAVUTA
IZYASLAV'
-~CA~~~T.~~~'IU-~1~F0~xx
~M1NSK
BELORUSSIAN'' ~'
~/ SG~5G
~ C
1 MARINA GORKA
U S S ft
rc ~
LENINGRAD MD
~~~~~.
~r xx ~ ~
37GO7 ~"
C
I POLOTSK
1~ '
~ r ~BORFSOV
~~
i~EPEL
~'1
x~~x
I1 ~ 18~
3-03GAD
VITEBSK
BOBRUYSK
RFF~}F~/
~.
BLACK SEA
t
l
TO KFROVABAO
..sx.. `.
X% \~,
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zx
1G
o 11G
~ ,,
4dG
BA LTIYS K
NAVAL
INF=ANTRY
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FUELS
LOGISTICS
NUCLEAR AND
AMMUNITION
LOGISTICS
Critical Fuels Installation (i.e. Front or Central Subordination on a Critical Axis)
? Important Fuels Installaifon li.e. Front or Central Subordination)
? Significant Fuels'Installation
Front Rocket Technical Base and Ammunition Storage (Includes Front Mobile Rocket Technical Base/PRTB)
? Army Rocket Technical Base (Includes Army Mobile Rocket Technical BaseIAPRTB and Probable
Independent Missile Delivery BattalionlORPDI
? Ammunition Storage and Possible Nuclear StoragelTechnical Support
? Independent Medical Unit IOMDI {Units Supporting Army and Higher Echelons)
Major Ground Forces Grouping (Corps Strength or Larger)
~~ E~ RE~IIBLI~C
~~,~ '~
~~:~,,~~~ try
AUSTRIA
tt~s 1eyed to Tab3e a
CZE~IOSLQVA
? KRAKOW
WARSZAWA
r (WARSAW)
FIGURE 3. KEY LOGISTICS FOR POTENTIAL SOVIET INVASION FORCES
Top Secret
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GDYNIA ? ,
GDANSK
POLAND
KATOWICE
BALTEC MD
LENINGRAD M17
MOSCOW Mi}
~s
.~~ .~
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29 v. r'l
40 ? "` 1 ~
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 Table 5.
Critical Logistics/Rear Services Units for Potential
Soviet Invasion of Poland
(Keyed to Figure 3)
This table i~~ its entirety is classified SECRETIWNINTEL
1 Radvilishkis Tac SSM
2 Kaliningrad Tac SSM
3 Kedainiai Tac SSM
4 Shchuchin Tac SSM
5 Dzerzhinsk Tac SSM
6 Osipovichi Tac SSM
7 Lepel Tac SSM
8 Bronnaya Gora Tac SSM
9 Vyshkov Tac SSM
]0 Vladimir-Volynskiy
Tac SSM
11 Shepetovka Tac SSM
12 Sambor Tac SSM
] 3 Staro Konstantinov Tac
SSM
14 Uzhgorod Tac SSM
IS Vinnitsa Tac SSM
22 Kaliningrad POL Stor NW
23 Grodno Pet Prod PUG
24 Minsk Pet Prod
25 Berestovitsa Pet Prod
26 Svisloch Pet Prod
27 Brest Pet Prod Stor NW
28 Lukov Army Bks AL-1
Matseyev
29 Kave] Army Bks
30 Kovel Pet Prod
31 Yavarov Pet Prod
32 Novoye Mesto Army Bks
AL-1
33 Mukachevo Pet Prod
Barkosovo
34 Furstenwalde Pet Prod
35 Klein-Bahren Pet Prod
36 Schliefe Pet Prod
37 Gyor Pet Prod
38 Pochinok Pet Prod
39 Kaliningrad
40 Lukov Army Bks AL-1
Matseyev
41 Furstenwalde Med Depot
RTB: technical rocket base
PRTB: mobile technical rocket base
ORPD: independent rocket transport battalion
MT: motor transport
OMO: independent medical detachment
Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti
Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti
Army RTB/PRTB/ORPD
Army RTB/PRTB
Army RTB
Army RTB
Army RTB
Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti
Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti
Army RTB
Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti
Army RTB/PRTB/ORPD
Army RTB
RTB/PRTB/ORPD
Army RTB/PRTB
Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti
Pipeline bn, POL MT bns
Front/central depot, reserve
pipeline equip
Front/central depot
Front/central depot
Front/central depot
Front/central depot
POL MT bn, med bn
Pipeline bn
Front/central depot
Front/central depot
Pipeline bn, rocket fuel unit
Front/central depot
Depot
Front/central depot
Front/central depot
Front/central depot
on
on
on
on
Pipeline bn, front/central dep
Mobilized hospital,
(observed Dec 80)
OMO
OMO
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Table 6.
Observed Logistics Activity in Forward Armies and MD-subordinate Divisions, September 1980-February 1981
BA1T1G MD
1980
e
opt
TROOP LEVEL
(Aegi mental/Olulsion~
10GISTICS
ACTIVITY
Nov
Dec
1981
an
Feb
1st
GTD
1st
GMRD
40th
GTD
26th
GMRD
?
?
?
?
?
May be
operational.
activity
BELORUSSIAN MII
26th ARMY
5th
GTD
46th
TD
50th
GMRD
?
?
24th
MRD
CGf
30th 31st 48th
GMRD' TD 'MRD
GSFG
Prob harvest
mobilisation
18th
GUARDSARMY
6th 35th 14th 27th 7th 9th 11th
GMRD MRD GMRD GMRD GTD TD GTD
1st GUARDS ARMY
?
CARPATHIAN MD
51st 97th 161st
GMRD GMRD MRD
70th
GMRD:
128th
GMRD
11th
MRD
Observed motor transport activity,
ammunition unloading and P01 activity
OPERATIONAL
LEVEL
~Rrmy/Fronq
LOGISTICS
ACTIVITY
1980
Civilian Vehicle
?
Civilian
vehicle
Civ
ilian veh
icle
Mobil~z~tion
G
mobili
zation
m
obilizati
on
Rail Loading
Activity
?
C
oy
Ra
il loadi
ng activi
ty
Motor transport activity
Motor Trans
port
Mo
tor trans
port
Mot
or transp
ort
ppp
Medical mobilization
Activity
activity
a
ctivity
~
Gtr
iposs central logistics
Poss Civil
ian
activity)
Vehicle Act
ivity
198]
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` ~'' ~" ~ ~MUKACHfVO Chamovts
..r
n r~: _: =
VEENNA .:~ ..
Major road
+-~-Railroad
~'~ Likely axis of advance
'.,_. ~~-~ Likely axis of Soviet Airborne advance
Q Staging area
FIGURE 4, POSSIBLE STAGING AREAS, LINES OF COMMUNICATION, AND POSTULATED AXES OF ADVANCE FDB 50VIET INTERVENTION IN POLAND
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` ~'' ~" ~ ~MUKACHfVO Chamovts
..r
n r~: _: =
VEENNA .:~ ..
Major road
+-~-Railroad
~'~ Likely axis of advance
'.,_. ~~-~ Likely axis of Soviet Airborne advance
Q Staging area
FIGURE 4, POSSIBLE STAGING AREAS, LINES OF COMMUNICATION, AND POSTULATED AXES OF ADVANCE FDB 50VIET INTERVENTION IN POLAND
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` ~'' ~" ~ ~MUKACHfVO Chamovts
..r
n r~: _: =
VEENNA .:~ ..
Major road
+-~-Railroad
~'~ Likely axis of advance
'.,_. ~~-~ Likely axis of Soviet Airborne advance
Q Staging area
FIGURE 4, POSSIBLE STAGING AREAS, LINES OF COMMUNICATION, AND POSTULATED AXES OF ADVANCE FDB 50VIET INTERVENTION IN POLAND
-8-
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NPTC T-0903
IAR-0031 /8I 25X1
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9. ~~ Throughout the period ~ ~ there was no evidence 25X1
which could be confirmed on imagery to indicate staging of Soviet combat maneuver divisions, Soviet Air
Forces, or air resupply activity. Nevertheless, the existing logistical support facilities appeared adequate to
serve alimited-scale intervention operation, Information derived from imagery and collateral sources
clearly indicated an enhanced Soviet capability to rapidly achieve limited military intervention.
DOCUMENTS
1. All applicable NSA Special Activity Re orts for Threat Analysis (SPARTAN) for the period 28 August 1980
to 22 February 1981 (TOP SECRET
2. DIA. DDB-1100.130-80-SI, SI.271273/80, Combined Soviet Ground Order of Battle (U), Aug 80 (TOP SE-
CRET
3. DIA. DDB-1100-UR-81, Ground Order of Battle: USSR (U), Jan 8] (SECRET
DIA. DDB-1100-PL-80, Ground Order of Battle: Poland (U), Ju180 (SECRET)
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DIA. DDB-1100-CZ-80, Ground Order of Battle: Czechoslovakia (U), Aug 80 (SECRET)
DIA. DDB-1100-HU-80, Ground Order of Battle: Hungary (U), Ju180 (SECRET)
TCS-14003/81
fS~ ments and queries regarding this report are welcome. They ma be 'r
Warsaw Pact Forces Division, Imagery Exploitation Group, NPIC,
~~
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