ANALYSIS OF SOVIET AND NATIONAL FORCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLISH CRISIS, (SANITIZED)

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CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9
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T
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15
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December 28, 2016
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November 3, 2010
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1
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Publication Date: 
February 1, 1981
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REPORT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 I~no~ery >tn~lysis report Analysis of Soviet and National Forces Associated with The Polish Crisis Top Secret Top Secret IAR-0031 /81 fEBRUAAY 1981 25X1 copy 18 0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret R U F ~ 1. ~~ This report presents an imagery-derived analysis of the increased readiness levels of the Soviet combat maneuver divisions in the three western military districts (MD) and airborne divisions between In addition, the report indicates the relationship of increased readiness to the Polish/USSR political situation and to the General Staff and KGB/UPS satellite communication activity' (Figure 1). Tables 1 through 4 address the current status of the 28 Soviet divisions in the three western military districts (Table 1); seven Soviet airborne divisions (Table 2); 20 key combat maneuver divisions in the Northern, Cent (Table 3); and 29 national divisions-15 Polish, eight Czechoslovakian, and four Hungarian (Table 4) associated with the Polish crisis. These divisions are depicted on Figure 2. Key logistical and rear services support units are illustrated on Figure 3 and listed in Table 5; Table 6 illustrates logistics activity in the western military districts and the forward armies. Possible staging areas, lines of communications (roads and railroads), and the postulated axes of advance for possible Soviet intervention are shown on Figure 4. All unit designators are derived from collateral documents.z?' OVERVIEW 2. (S/D) By mid-February 1980, increased readiness levels had been seen at nine Soviet combat maneuver divisions (five ready and four cadre) and in three of the Soviet airborne divisions. Of those units, the 26th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (GMRD) at Gusev had elements out of garrison as of addition, a new ready tank division was identified at Grodno. 3. ~ The five ready divisions-the 1st GMRD and the 1st Guards Tank Division (GTD) at Kaliningrad, the 128th GMRD at Mukachevo, the 24th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) at Lvov, and the 40th GTD at Sovetsk-and the three airborne divisions (the 7th at Kaunas, the 98th at Bolgrad, and the 106th at Tula) have remained at an increased readiness level. Two of the four cadre divisions (the 46th GTD at Slonim and the 51st GMRD at Vladimir-Volynskiy) are no longer at an increased state of readiness and are believed to have returned to a premobilization activity level of cadre status. It is believed, however, that these divisions can be quickly brought back to a combat readiness level. ANALYSIS OF SOV HE POLISH CRISIS, while an increased readiness posture was observed in the 97th GMRD at Slavuta (Figure 5). In 4. (S/D) A definite preparedness cycle has taken place in the process of bringing the five ready, four cadre, and three airborne divisions, with their associated command and control, to an increased state of readiness. The increased level of readiness was achieved in two distinct 90-day cycles (Figure 1). The beginning of a probable third 90-day cycle is also illustrated in Figure 1. 5. (S/D) The first cycle of events was seen in early September, when five combat maneuver divisions (the 1st GMRD and the 1st GTD at Kaliningrad, the 4th GTD at Sovetsk of the I lth Guards Army (GA), the 46th GTD at Slonim, and the 128th GMRD at Mukachevo) achieved an increased state of readiness. The imagery signatures that indicated the increased state of readiness in these units consisted of troop processing (Figure 6) and at least three combat maneuver regiments observed on alert and bivouacked out of garrison (with their supporting units) for an extended period of time, regimental rail-loading exercises, and mobilized motor transport battalions augmented with civilian vehicles. In addition, a new ready tank division moved into Grodno in early Septem- ber. Since the tank division arrived at Grodno, the unit has only been observed conducting crew training. The airborne divisions have a quick-response mission. More intense predeployment activity was observed here than in the combat maneuver divisions. Activity seen at airborne installations that fits the criteria for determining an increased state of readiness included signal exercises (in garrison), pallet-loading exercises (Figure 7), the preparation of vehicles equipment to depart garrison (convoy activity), rail-loading exer- cises, and the uploading of material at depots. The General Staff satellite communication activity began in early September. By ~ uxiliary command and control center (ACC) was confirmed in the Warsaw area. The General Staff maintained continuous communication with the various headquarters and subordinate units during this 90-day cycle. This communication activity is considered an integral part of the mobilization scenario.' 7. ~~ A second example of the 90-day cycle was seen in late November with the identification of probable mobilization of a hospital unit in Kaliningrad and increased readiness at the 24th MRD at Lvov, a ready division, and two cadre divisions-the 26th GMRD at Gusev (Figure 8) and the Slst GMRD at Valadimir-Volynskiy (Figure 9). Increased readiness was also seen at three airborne divisions. (Continued p. 10) -1- Top Secret /AR-001/8/ 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret R U F F Table 1. Current Status of Combat Maneuver Divisions in the Three Western MDs This table in its entirety is classified TOP SECRET RUFF Military District l lth Guards Army Current Current Last Level Unit Readi- Imagery of Status Hess Date Activity Level' Ist GMRD Kaliningrad Ready ICR Routine 1st GTD Kaliningrad Ready ICR Routine 40th GTD Sovetsk Ready ICR Routine 26th GMRD Gusev Cadre ICR High Additional Divisions 3rd GMRD Klaipeda Cadre CCR Routine 56th GMRD Tallinn Cadre CCR Routine 107th MRD Vilnius Cadre CCR Routine 28th Army 46th GTD Slonim Cadre CCR Routine Unid TD Grodno Ready CCR Low (prob 6 GTD) 50th GMRD Brest Cadre CCR Routine Unid MRD Brest Cadre CCR Low 5th GDS Tank Army 8th GTD Marina Gorka 193rd TD Bobruysk Cadre CCR 29th GTD Slutsk Cadre CCR 7th Tank Army 3rd GTD Lepel Cadre CCR High 34th TD Borisov Cadre CCR Routine 37th GTD Polotsk Cadre CCR High Carpathian MD 8th Tank Army 23rd TD Ovruch Ready CCR Routine 30th GTD Novograd Cadre CCR Routine Volynskiy 50th TD Staro Konstantinov 13th Army 51st GMRD Vladimir Volynskiy 97th GMRD Slavuta 161st MRD Izyaslav Cadre 38th Army 70th GMRD Nano Cadre Frankovsk 128th GMRD Mukachevo Ready 17th GMRD Khmelnitskiy Cadre Routine High Possible preparation for field training observed Only crew training observed since) A high level of training activity was observed in the arty reg, tk reg, MR reg, and AA reg areas; the sixty-seven 60-ton semitrailers seen on~~;at tk reg are gone High High level of activity observed in maneuver regiments within garrison; bivouacs in adjacent training area, which includes troop processing Routine Routine ICR Routine CCR Routine *CCR-Constant combat readiness is the standard Pact term designating the peacetime posture which is usually maintained by all branches of service. Units are not on alert and are conducting normal peacetime training. Measures are taken by the individual units, however, to assure their ability to mobilize rapidly. ICR-Increased combat readiness units are placed on alert and take preparatory measures in anticipation of a full mobilization. Depending on [he political and military situation, all military forces within a country or one branch of service, one military district, or even one tactical formation may be placed on increased readiness. Those ground forces at or near full strength and having early commitment of deployment times might move out of garrison and into assembly, staging, or concentration areas under the cover of training exercises. Increased readiness is a transitional phase leading to full combat readiness. The duration of this period is directly related to the nature and the duration of the period of tension, rather than to the time necessary to complete the preparatory measures. FCR-Full combat readiness is the highest armed forces readiness level. Full mobilization is ordered and the forces are prepared to immediately undertake combat missions or deploy under combat alert conditions. This readiness level will only be ordered (excluding training exercises) if there is an immediate threat of hostilities or, as in the case of the Pact intervention in Czechoslovakia, if there is an internal crisis which requires a comparable readiness posture. All forces are intended to achieve full readiness before the outbreak of fighting. 2- Top Secret /AR-003//8/ 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 ___ - ---.. _ . ..._. ; - ----------- ~---_.- ----_ __ 1 _ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret R U FF This chart in its entirety is classified TOP SECRET RUFF ~ August 1980 ~ September 1980 POLITICAL 360,000 Polish Workers on Strike Gierek Out; Kania In Birth Of New Labor Union MILITARY STATUS 9st GRMD Kaliningrad (Ready) 1st GTD Kaliningrad Ready '40th GTD Sovetsk 1Ready) 26th GMRD Gusev (Cadre 46th GTD Slonim (Cadre) UNI D TD Grodno (Prob 6 GTD) {Ready) 51st GMRD Vladimir-Volynskiy ICadre) 1?8th GMRD Mukachevo Ready) 24th M RD Lvov (Ready) 97th GMRD Slavuta (Cadre) AIRSORNE ACTIVITY VDV CMD Auth Moscow/Shchelkovo 7th GAD Kaunas 98th GAD Bolgrad 906th GAD Tuia COMMAND AND CONTROL ACTIVITY General Staff Satellite Net General Staff (ACCT Signal Exercise Loading Pallets Departed G~rrison Parachute Un Palletized C Material Up Loaded On Cargo Trucks 14 CUB In Engine-Ru - On-Load Formation Sohdanty Is Legal Purge of Party Committee November 1980 December 1980_ J anuary 1981 General Tension In Poland Solidarity Strives For Control Kania Makes Peace With Soviets February 1981 Solidarity Demands 40 Hour Work Week, TV Time Farmers Unionization Not Active Satellite Communication, Other Communication Means Utilized KGB/UPS Satellite Communications Exercise ~On Going Moscow -Legnica Cosmos 8t' ~~ ~~ Alert/Exercise/Mobilization Artivity ~trt~1~~ Mobilized Motor Transport Battalion1- Q~,, ~ ,.~,~;.,.. t..,....,~,. ~~ ~~ niuicinnal Flomonrc r---~ National Unity Theme Command and Control Activity FIGURE 1. CORRELATION OF SOVIET MILITARY AND GENERAL STAFF COMMUNICATION RCTIVITY WITN POLITICAL EVENTS IN POLAND -3- Top Secret IAR-00.31 /8! 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81TOO38OROOO1OO49OOO1-9 Top Secret R U FF Table 2, Current Status of Airborne Divisions This table in its entirety is classified SECRET/WNINTEL Current Last Readiness Imagery Level* Date 7th GAD Kaunas ICR 76th GAD Pskov CCR 98th GAD Bolgrad ICR 103rd GAD Vitebsk CCR 104th GAD Kirovabad CCR IOSth GAD Fergana CCR 106th GAD Tula CCR *CCR-Constant combat readiness ICR-Increased combat readiness FCR-Full combat readiness Detailed derinilions of these leans may be found in the foolnole to Table I. Table 3. Current Status, Groups of Soviet Forces This table in its entirety is classifred SECRETlWN1NTEL Cureent Unit Status Table 4. Current Status of National Forces Airborne equipment on/off loading two COCK, one CANDID at airfield Possible palletizing observed Thirty BMD and approx 30 support vehicles have been removed from sheds Usual training activity observed; approx 700 parachutes observed at two installations, AL-I and AL-3 Current Readiness Level* Current Unit Status 6th Airborne Krakow Ready 7th Sea Landing Gdansk Ready 1st MECH Legionowo Ready 2nd MECH Nysa Ready 3rd MECH Lublin Cadre 4th MECH Krosno Odrzanskie Ready Sth ARMD Gubin Ready 8th MECH Koszalin Ready 9th MECH Rzeszow Cadre 10th ARMD Opole Ready 11th ARMD Zagan Ready 12th MECH Szczecin Ready 15th MECH Olsztyn 16th ARMD Elblag 20th ARMD Szczecinek Ready Ready Ready 1st Army 1st TD Strasice Ready 2nd MRD Susice Ready Routine On 19th MRD Plzen Ready 20th MRD Karlovy Uary Ready 4th Army 3rd MRD Kromeriz Ready 4th TD Havlickuc Brod Ready 9th TD Tabor Ready 1Sth MRD Ceske Budejouice Ready NORTHERN GROUP OF FORCES (NGF) NGF Hq Legnica Rembertow Sig Bdge & KGB/UP5 - - 90th GTD Borne Ready CCR CENTRAL GROUP OF FORCES (CGF) 18th GMRD Mlada Boleslav Ready CCR 15th GTD Milovice Ready CCR 28th Corps 31st TD Brunta] Ready CCR 48th MRD Vysoke Myto Ready CCR 30th GMRD Zvolen Ready CCR SOUTHERN GROUP OF FORCES (SGF) 2nd GTD Esztergom Ready CCR 13th GTD Veszprem Ready CCR 93rd GMRD Kecskemet 254th MRD Szekespehervar Ready CCR Ready CCR *CCR-Constant combat readiness ICR-Increased combat readiness FCR-Full combat readiness Detailed definitions of these terms can be found in the footnote to Table I. High Two PARK DRIVE stations observed Routine ] 43 trucks were seen parade field Routine High PARK DRIVE and communication exercise observed Routine Routine High Routine Routine Routine Routine At least elements of a tk bn and one Czech tk bn (possible joint exercise) 7th MRD Kiskunfelegyhaza Ready 8th MRD Zalaegerszeg Ready 9th MRD Kaposvar Ready 11th TD Tata Ready -4- TopSecret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81TOO38OROOO1OO49OOO1-9 Last Imagery Level of Remarks Activity 25X1 Routine 25X1 Routine Out of garrison ~~ 25X1 Routine Routine Routine Routine On~~80 trucks in convoy 25X1 and signal exercise underway. Routine Out of garrisop' 25X1 Routine Routine Sig bn in local trng area 25X1 Routine Routine Two mech bn, tk bn, eng co, out of garrison Routine Routine Routine 25X1 25X1 25X1 Routine Routine Routine Routine Routine Routine Routine 25X1 25X1 Routine Routine 5X1 25X1 IAR-0031 /81 25X1 x Division Hq Brigade Hq C =Cadre stength unit O 1 wER1VT~V :: Tank Motorized rifle ? Airborne RED -Soviet Forces BLUE -Polish National Forces GREEN Czech,and ungarian ational Forces ORANGE -Airborne Division ? Increased Readiness Level ~~ ~ ` Arm area ~_.i V IT1~LY 0 NGF LEGNICA WRDCLAW ? ~ BRUNT xxx \ -- ` AL zs A CZECHOSLOVAKIA YOG~I,.AVIA GDYNIA ; GDANSK POLAND xx 0 TORUN ~ 3oG ~ za \ '~ ~ _ ZVOLEN ? KATOWICE 93G LIEPAJA NAVAL BASE ~OV ETSK`~?'a KALINN.ORAO GUSEV ? WARSZAWA (WAASAWI Q C ~ LUBLIN / ULADIMI ~j VOLYNSKY- MlKACNEVO, ~ ~__- 1GAD~, 0 GROONO >nxx~' ~ ~ ~zxxx / 38i NANO-fRANKOVSK R,f?MANIA VILNIt~S r r.~. ROVNO 97G --~ i% xrixz ~ / 13~ ~ ~ xx ~ 3oG o a xx ~ C :.. tsj NOVOGRAO /mix VDLYNSKY ~z9G ~SLAVUTA IZYASLAV' -~CA~~~T.~~~'IU-~1~F0~xx ~M1NSK BELORUSSIAN'' ~' ~/ SG~5G ~ C 1 MARINA GORKA U S S ft rc ~ LENINGRAD MD ~~~~~. ~r xx ~ ~ 37GO7 ~" C I POLOTSK 1~ ' ~ r ~BORFSOV ~~ i~EPEL ~'1 x~~x I1 ~ 18~ 3-03GAD VITEBSK BOBRUYSK RFF~}F~/ ~. BLACK SEA t l TO KFROVABAO ..sx.. `. X% \~, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret RUFF -5- TopSecret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 lAR-0031 /81 KA LAxPEDA zx 1G o 11G ~ ,, 4dG BA LTIYS K NAVAL INF=ANTRY l Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret RUFF FUELS LOGISTICS NUCLEAR AND AMMUNITION LOGISTICS Critical Fuels Installation (i.e. Front or Central Subordination on a Critical Axis) ? Important Fuels Installaifon li.e. Front or Central Subordination) ? Significant Fuels'Installation Front Rocket Technical Base and Ammunition Storage (Includes Front Mobile Rocket Technical Base/PRTB) ? Army Rocket Technical Base (Includes Army Mobile Rocket Technical BaseIAPRTB and Probable Independent Missile Delivery BattalionlORPDI ? Ammunition Storage and Possible Nuclear StoragelTechnical Support ? Independent Medical Unit IOMDI {Units Supporting Army and Higher Echelons) Major Ground Forces Grouping (Corps Strength or Larger) ~~ E~ RE~IIBLI~C ~~,~ '~ ~~:~,,~~~ try AUSTRIA tt~s 1eyed to Tab3e a CZE~IOSLQVA ? KRAKOW WARSZAWA r (WARSAW) FIGURE 3. KEY LOGISTICS FOR POTENTIAL SOVIET INVASION FORCES Top Secret - ~` GDYNIA ? , GDANSK POLAND KATOWICE BALTEC MD LENINGRAD M17 MOSCOW Mi} ~s .~~ .~ ~." ~- ~ ~ ~~--- l ~..1 1 iaa ~---, rnu ~ 29 v. r'l 40 ? "` 1 ~ -~` l 30 , ;xPtc T-osoz IAR-0031 /81 ,_ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Table 5. Critical Logistics/Rear Services Units for Potential Soviet Invasion of Poland (Keyed to Figure 3) This table i~~ its entirety is classified SECRETIWNINTEL 1 Radvilishkis Tac SSM 2 Kaliningrad Tac SSM 3 Kedainiai Tac SSM 4 Shchuchin Tac SSM 5 Dzerzhinsk Tac SSM 6 Osipovichi Tac SSM 7 Lepel Tac SSM 8 Bronnaya Gora Tac SSM 9 Vyshkov Tac SSM ]0 Vladimir-Volynskiy Tac SSM 11 Shepetovka Tac SSM 12 Sambor Tac SSM ] 3 Staro Konstantinov Tac SSM 14 Uzhgorod Tac SSM IS Vinnitsa Tac SSM 22 Kaliningrad POL Stor NW 23 Grodno Pet Prod PUG 24 Minsk Pet Prod 25 Berestovitsa Pet Prod 26 Svisloch Pet Prod 27 Brest Pet Prod Stor NW 28 Lukov Army Bks AL-1 Matseyev 29 Kave] Army Bks 30 Kovel Pet Prod 31 Yavarov Pet Prod 32 Novoye Mesto Army Bks AL-1 33 Mukachevo Pet Prod Barkosovo 34 Furstenwalde Pet Prod 35 Klein-Bahren Pet Prod 36 Schliefe Pet Prod 37 Gyor Pet Prod 38 Pochinok Pet Prod 39 Kaliningrad 40 Lukov Army Bks AL-1 Matseyev 41 Furstenwalde Med Depot RTB: technical rocket base PRTB: mobile technical rocket base ORPD: independent rocket transport battalion MT: motor transport OMO: independent medical detachment Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti Army RTB/PRTB/ORPD Army RTB/PRTB Army RTB Army RTB Army RTB Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti Army RTB Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti Army RTB/PRTB/ORPD Army RTB RTB/PRTB/ORPD Army RTB/PRTB Front RTB/PRTB/ammuniti Pipeline bn, POL MT bns Front/central depot, reserve pipeline equip Front/central depot Front/central depot Front/central depot Front/central depot POL MT bn, med bn Pipeline bn Front/central depot Front/central depot Pipeline bn, rocket fuel unit Front/central depot Depot Front/central depot Front/central depot Front/central depot on on on on Pipeline bn, front/central dep Mobilized hospital, (observed Dec 80) OMO OMO Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret RUFF Table 6. Observed Logistics Activity in Forward Armies and MD-subordinate Divisions, September 1980-February 1981 BA1T1G MD 1980 e opt TROOP LEVEL (Aegi mental/Olulsion~ 10GISTICS ACTIVITY Nov Dec 1981 an Feb 1st GTD 1st GMRD 40th GTD 26th GMRD ? ? ? ? ? May be operational. activity BELORUSSIAN MII 26th ARMY 5th GTD 46th TD 50th GMRD ? ? 24th MRD CGf 30th 31st 48th GMRD' TD 'MRD GSFG Prob harvest mobilisation 18th GUARDSARMY 6th 35th 14th 27th 7th 9th 11th GMRD MRD GMRD GMRD GTD TD GTD 1st GUARDS ARMY ? CARPATHIAN MD 51st 97th 161st GMRD GMRD MRD 70th GMRD: 128th GMRD 11th MRD Observed motor transport activity, ammunition unloading and P01 activity OPERATIONAL LEVEL ~Rrmy/Fronq LOGISTICS ACTIVITY 1980 Civilian Vehicle ? Civilian vehicle Civ ilian veh icle Mobil~z~tion G mobili zation m obilizati on Rail Loading Activity ? C oy Ra il loadi ng activi ty Motor transport activity Motor Trans port Mo tor trans port Mot or transp ort ppp Medical mobilization Activity activity a ctivity ~ Gtr iposs central logistics Poss Civil ian activity) Vehicle Act ivity 198] a n -7- TopSecret IAR-0031 /81 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret RUF~ ` ~'' ~" ~ ~MUKACHfVO Chamovts ..r n r~: _: = VEENNA .:~ .. Major road +-~-Railroad ~'~ Likely axis of advance '.,_. ~~-~ Likely axis of Soviet Airborne advance Q Staging area FIGURE 4, POSSIBLE STAGING AREAS, LINES OF COMMUNICATION, AND POSTULATED AXES OF ADVANCE FDB 50VIET INTERVENTION IN POLAND -8- TopSecret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 25X1 25X1 NPTC T-0903 IAR-0031 /8I 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret RUF~ ` ~'' ~" ~ ~MUKACHfVO Chamovts ..r n r~: _: = VEENNA .:~ .. Major road +-~-Railroad ~'~ Likely axis of advance '.,_. ~~-~ Likely axis of Soviet Airborne advance Q Staging area FIGURE 4, POSSIBLE STAGING AREAS, LINES OF COMMUNICATION, AND POSTULATED AXES OF ADVANCE FDB 50VIET INTERVENTION IN POLAND -8- TopSecret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 25X1 25X1 NPTC T-0903 IAR-0031 /8I 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret RUF~ ` ~'' ~" ~ ~MUKACHfVO Chamovts ..r n r~: _: = VEENNA .:~ .. Major road +-~-Railroad ~'~ Likely axis of advance '.,_. ~~-~ Likely axis of Soviet Airborne advance Q Staging area FIGURE 4, POSSIBLE STAGING AREAS, LINES OF COMMUNICATION, AND POSTULATED AXES OF ADVANCE FDB 50VIET INTERVENTION IN POLAND -8- TopSecret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11103 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 25X1 25X1 NPTC T-0903 IAR-0031 /8I 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret RUFF 9. ~~ Throughout the period ~ ~ there was no evidence 25X1 which could be confirmed on imagery to indicate staging of Soviet combat maneuver divisions, Soviet Air Forces, or air resupply activity. Nevertheless, the existing logistical support facilities appeared adequate to serve alimited-scale intervention operation, Information derived from imagery and collateral sources clearly indicated an enhanced Soviet capability to rapidly achieve limited military intervention. DOCUMENTS 1. All applicable NSA Special Activity Re orts for Threat Analysis (SPARTAN) for the period 28 August 1980 to 22 February 1981 (TOP SECRET 2. DIA. DDB-1100.130-80-SI, SI.271273/80, Combined Soviet Ground Order of Battle (U), Aug 80 (TOP SE- CRET 3. DIA. DDB-1100-UR-81, Ground Order of Battle: USSR (U), Jan 8] (SECRET DIA. DDB-1100-PL-80, Ground Order of Battle: Poland (U), Ju180 (SECRET) 25X1 25X1 DIA. DDB-1100-CZ-80, Ground Order of Battle: Czechoslovakia (U), Aug 80 (SECRET) DIA. DDB-1100-HU-80, Ground Order of Battle: Hungary (U), Ju180 (SECRET) TCS-14003/81 fS~ ments and queries regarding this report are welcome. They ma be 'r Warsaw Pact Forces Division, Imagery Exploitation Group, NPIC, ~~ Top Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010!11!03:CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 IAR-0031 /81 25X1 LDJ~ I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9 Top Secret Top .Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/03 :CIA-RDP81T00380R000100490001-9