NORTH KOREA POLITICS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81T00700R000100050007-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: November 16, 1976
• Content Type: PAPER

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1. There have been a number of reports recently that a
"power struggle" of serious dimensions is under way in North
Korea. Much of this information is based on rumors instigated by
the South Koreans, who have a vested interest in discrediting
the regime in Pyongyang. Reliable information on the North is
hard to come by, but we have noted some signs of political
ferment in Pyongyang -- primarily by reading between the lines
in North Korean propaganda. Given the political and economic
problems facing Pyongyang, it would be surprising if a certain
amount of dissension did not exist. There is no persuasive
evidence, however, that current tensions have either posed a
challenge to President Kim Il-song's authority or caused a
modification in his policies. We believe the following issues
are commanding attention in Pyongyang:
-- Succession: One of the thornier domestic problems
is Kim Il-song's campaign to groom his son as
successor. This campaign, now three years old, is
being conducted behind closed doors, There have been
no direct references in the North Korean press to
the son as successor or in any other capacity.
We believe that Kim Il-song is moving slowly in
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designating his son as successor to build up
the son's political acceptance and legitimacy and
also to avoid a lame duck status for himself. There
probably is some opposition within the party to the
younger Kim's ascendancy, but we believe that this
resistance is likely to remain passive so long as
Kim senior is around. Kim Il-song is overweight and
reportedly has a heart condition, but at 64 he main-
tains a vigorous schedule of activities.
--- Party Congress Delayed: North Korea was supposed to
convene a party congress this year to coincide with
the formal ending of the current six year economic
development plan (1971-76). Economic problems --
the regime's large international debt and its inability
to meet industrial production goals -- are probably a
major factor forcing a delay in the congress, which
is usually the forum for announcing the next long-
term economic plan. The current status of succession
campaign may also figure in the postponement.
-- Foreign Policy Difficulties; The Panmunjom incident
in mid-August and its aftermath resulted in some
loss of support for North Korea in its efforts to
build international pressure for a withdrawal of
US forces in Korea, We believe that it was primarily
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the North's recognition of this erosion of support
that led to the decision not to risk a test of
strength in the UN General Assembly this year. The
North's image also has been tarnished by the large
default on foreign debts and the publicity given the
recent smuggling scandal in Scandinavia. Thus far,
there have been no signs, however, that these problems
have led to any recriminations within the North
Korean leadership or that any important leaders
have been removed as a result of the difficulties.
2. Outlook: In sum, we see Pyongyang's leaders faced with
difficulties that are real but certainly manageable. The populace
is long inured to sacrifice and deprivation, and the regime will
probably muddle through its current economic difficulties. Assuming
the elder Kim remains healthy, the succession issue can be permitted
to simmer along indefinitely. In foreign policy we expect
.Pyongyang to continue to concentrate its efforts in seeking through
political and diplomatic moves to achieve a withdrawal of US
forces from Korea. The North may feel impelled to cover its
recent tactical setbacks by taking a new initiative on the diplomatic
front. Any such initiative probably would involve a repackaging
of earlier proposals, for example, the bid for bilateral North
Korean-US talks on a "peace agreement." Pyongyang almost certainly
will want to make an early assessment of the attitude of the
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new US administration.
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