BASIC CONCEPTS OF SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS (REPRESENTING A BOOK REVIEW AND A CRITICISM OF THAT REVIEW)

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• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00039R000100230019-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: R
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: March 7, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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(Representing a Book Review and a Criticism of that Review)
S. P. Khrornov (reviewer) and G. D. Zubyan (critic).
Two Articles Appearing in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya,
No 2 (October 1950), pages 20 and 27?33.
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REVD OF BASIC CONCEPTS OF SYNOPTIC ANALYSTS
S. P. Khromov
Note: The following is a book review that appeared in Meteorologiya i
Gidrologiya, No 2 (October 1950), pates 20-25. A critical answer to this review
by D. D. Zubyan, appeared in the same issue, pages 2733 7
(In connection with the work by Kh. P. Pogosyan and N. L. Taborovskiy
deceased: "Advective-Dynamical Bases of Frontological Analysis". Trudy
TsIP No 7 (31i.), 19L.8. ~rudy TsIP means "Works of the Central Forecasting
Institutet'.7)
r
In the reviewed work the authors are making the first steps toward a survey
of relations between the frontological conceptions and the notions of "advective-
d amical anaysis" developed by them. The sifle of the work (77 pp) compels
us to pause only on its basic statements, important for practical analysis.
Therefore concepts of individual and local frontogenesis remained undiscussed.
1. Geographical Classification of Aerial Masses
The geographical classification of aerial masses really has no direct
prognostic value. Moreover, the synopticians, contrary to the statements by the
authors never relied in their forecasting on average characteristics of aerial
masses if we do not take into account the suggestions by Schintze, Meze and
Rossby on use of homologues, which were of little effect on Soviet practice.
Nevertheless geographical classification is rather essential for analysis,
and therefore indirectly for forecasting. The geographical type of mass,
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correctly determined, supplies us with a natural complex of weather conditions,
within the range of condensed characteristics of its system (for a specified
time and location). Every experienced synoptician presents well the specifica-
~.
t ion of the weather, let us say in the summer KTV in the central
~.on and. pec
territory of European USSR or the winter MPV in the northwest etc. Further on,
the geographical classification of aerial masses considerably facilitates con-
Crete analysis of synoptic situation, not by applying average characteristics,
but by explaining g the role of masses and fronts in the general circulation
mechanism an the specified synoptic situation. The important value of geo-
graphical classification and of average characteristics of masses for clima-
unequivocal; another value of synoptics is that from its materials
tology
fists will make their conclusions. Therefore it is reasonable, despite
cla.matolog
their full denial, to consider geographical classification of aerial masses;
the authors nevertheless recommend that indications of basic geographical types
be left on sYnoptical maps. Here definite progress may be found in the views
of the authors; back in 19LI.1 they did not t'acknowledge" aerial masses.
Although in Russian the woad combination "umerern Y vozdukh" (temperate air)
2. Geographical Classification of Fronts
In this connection it is however appropriate to introduce a new equivalent
SaUI1ds unusuals it seems nevertheless the best variant among possibilities,
and its introduction eliminates conditionality and misunderstandings in
terminology.
results from the classification of aerial masses, and the attempt of the authors
to the term "polar fronttt. The geographical classification of fronts inevitably
to deviate it can in no way be convincing.
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The authors pretend that "concepts of arctic and polar fronts, taken as
basis of any analysis of a synoptic map, as a rule lead to difficulties, which
could be avoided only by the formalization of synoptic analysis". We are of
different opinion; this concept imparted to analyses of our synopticians a
coherence and depth in connection with the general circulation, lacking in,
e.g., German analyses. A denial of this concept would threaten nihilistic
chaos instead of analysis. The difficulties mentioned by the authors really
did sometimes happen. But the reason for their appearance is just the formal
non-dialectic approach to synoptic analysis, stopping confusedly, e.g., before
the fact of conversion of the artic front into the polar one, or before the
simultaneous presence on the map of two arctic fronts in the same natural
synoptic region, or before a cyclogenesis on an occlusion front. Every concept
can be led to absurdity and may be formalized in its raechanical application,
but it may also be rendered valuable if used as its dialectical subject, reflecting
its dialectic nature, requires it.
In developing their arguments, the authors indicate that "the main front
often appeared virtually in the zone of small contrasts of temperature, while
the secondary was located in the zone of big contrasts". Some unexperienced
synopticiins could see it that way, but this would only indicate an incorrect
and shallow analysis. In a correct case the defined main front essentially
(as far as it separates aerial masses of different latitudinal zones) cannot
contain the greatest contrasts, if, of course, we take into account represent-
ative temperatures. Maps of relative topography may be here of essential help,
by clarifying the average temperature distribution in the lower half of the
troposphere; and the more they will be applied in the determination of the
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front type, the better. It is of course possible that in the beginning of the
formation process of the main front or during its degradation temperature dif.--
ferences of manor importance may appear, but for somebody used to dialectic
thinking this circumstarice is not disturbing.
We agree with the authors that although not all, but many secondary fronts
were of arbitrary relation to occlusion fronts without connection with the
previous front history. But no basic difficulties are involved here, only
insufficient experience and carefulness in analysis. The concept of secondary
(of second grade, according the terminology of the author) fronts was excluded
by nobody from synoptics.
3. The Front and The Essentials of Synoptic Analysis
The authors evidently belittle the role of front for the comprehension of
synoptic processes, stating that the analysis by means of bane topography
"showed that we may discuss the development of processes on basis of analysis
of thermobaric fields, without taking fronts directly into account", their
effect on dynamics of processes being expressed "totally by horizontal tempera-.
ture gradients and pressures in the troposphere's. Let us remember there was
a time when synoptic analysis was satisfied only by bane relief at sea level
and the circulation and first of all the cyclogenetic effect of the then yet
unknown fronts was accounted for vaguely and in general". It is worth while
to retrograde synoptics back to this period at a tine when. the reality of
tropospheric fronts does not arouse anybodyts doubts, including the authors?
At the present time it is necessary to tend not to generalization, but to
synthesis of such concepts, which are real, practically tested and doubtlessly
possessing physical connection. The separation of bane topography maps from
real frontal surfaces, not observed as such on maps of relative topography
a~
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4i,K k
t +P 4 ;'.x
(owing to their smoothing and averaging properties) is by itself not the most
important or most strong phase of advective-dynamical analysis. Obviously
eVeij tiie au'IJL U..' 'u L. A. VUvu J.t,
,g
because Twhile stating the possibility o f de'
without fronts, they nevertheless are preoccupied with fronts in their work.
The connection of cloud systems and precipitations just with frontal sur-
faces, and not with. blurred high altitude frontal zones on maps of relative
topography (those being only peculiar reflections of these surfaces) is not
denied even by the authors. But it is incomprehensible why they think that
"the Norwgian school considered it rational ... to place foremost the kinematic
characteristics of processes and to leave in a secondary role the dynamic
characteristics." The works of Norwegian metereologists cannot lead to such
a conclusion. But if by "Norwegian" school we shall understand a frontological
school in general (the achievements of which the authors try to undermine in
their other statements, ascribing them to mythical "Norwegians" or proving
that no results were attained since 19O) it is also impossible to come to such
a conclusion.
The absence of a strict quantitative account of the dynamics of the pro-
cesses was not an adjustment, but a sad necessity for frontologiccl synoptics
as well as for advective-dynamical analysis, until the system of Kibel appeared
and developed into a synoptic theory by N. L. Taborovskiy only in 1917.
Frontology has been in use since long ago, although only qualitatively, a series
of dynaxuicai concepts; let us remind ourselves of the theorem of acceleration
of circulation, the theory of surface separation, the theory of undulatory
cyclogenesis etc. These theoretical situations served as rational bases of
one or other methods of practical analysis. At the same time the advective'
dynamical analysis rested until 191.7 on concepts of advection and convergence
of isohyps, which in no way revealed the dynamical mechanism of the phenomena.
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of disturbances; third, from concepts of isentropic and particularly entropic
concept of frontal cyclogenesis with their effect on structures and dislocations
concept of front, its evolution and displacement; secondly from the physical
into the practice of forecasting is derived first of all from the physical
It is not the first time that the subject of frontological analysis has been
characterized by the authors as being against objective reality, i.e, against
frontological methods. The authors attribute to frontologicai analysis all that
a
the r consider necessary. So in 1917 Kh. P. Pogosyan, N. L. Taborovskiy and
K. I. K ashin (cf: Meteorologayya i Gidrologiya No 6 (19L~7) considered that
the basic principle of this (frontological - S. Khramov) method is the distinc-
tion of aerial masses according to their conservative features, among which the
most important is the equivalent potential temperature". Meanwhile every prac-
ticing synoptitian understands that the basis of the frontologicl method is
the exploitation of fronts and the frontal interpretation of cyclogenesis.
This just leads to the dismembering of the troposphere into aerial masses,
defined first of all by their circulation role and not by statistical character-
istics computed in advance. New matter which frontological analysis introduced
advection or by altitudinal deformational fields, on which the advective~
dimensional synoptic, if the matter were limited. only by altitude vergence and
it. A three dimensional synoptic, would not really be a fully evaluated two
the work of N. A. Taborovskiy in 19Li7 and by its review, the authors understood
concepts as front and frontal cyclogenesis; we should enjoy it that, judging by
reall y give fruitful results, namely on basis of such solid frontological
may ~
reactions on aerial masses, The introduction into synoptics of a third dimension
dynamical analysis of 19L~7 was constructed.
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t~. Cold and Warm Masses
We find further a suggestion that aerial masses be subdivided into cold and
warm ones according to distinctions found among them on maps of relative topo~
graphy. This suggestion is quite natural: temperature contrasts among aerial
masses of course are more reliably defined by relative topography, than by an
insufficient picture of the temperature field near the ground,
5. Transformation of Aerial Masses
Nothing new is to be found in the authors' treatise on the problem of the
transformation of aerial masses; but the problem of transformation in active
centers (of isolated masses, according to the terminology of the authors) is
set upside down. The authors positively deny the presence of tropical air in
the altitude of upper cyclones, and th~;refore conclude that in high-altitude
cyclones the cold air is transformed into a warm one, but not the contrary; the
opposite effect is observed in high--altitude anti-cyclones. A virtual confirm
ation of this supposed absence of warm air at altitudes "over the center of
occluded (cold) cycionet' is not given in the article. However it seems to us
that this absence or presence is impossible to notice on the map OT Soo/loOO,
In the lower five kilometers the central cyclone is certainly filled by cold
air; but this cannot prevent the tropical air from extending itself over the
cold one in the upper part of the troposphere and undergoing transformation
just there, as it was assumed until now. At the same time we cannot leave
unnoticed the effect of cold intrusions into low latitudes with final anti
cyclones.
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By making the synoptic mechanism of the transformation precise, we could
say that transformation PV and TV originates in the conversion process of low
(at first) final anticyclone of the series into a warm and high subtropical
anticyclone. Therefore on altitude charts the transformation will proceed in
the high altitude (cold) cavity and will end together with the liquidation of
this cavity. Similarly the transforrriation TB and PV is connected with the
liquidation of the warm crest over the occluding cyclone, i.e. with the process
of conversion of the low and medium cyclone into a high altitude one.
It is doubtful that vertical. motion has a secondary (as thought by the
authors) role in the transformation. In an anticyclone just downward motions
will effect temperature rise in the lower part of troposphere; and radiative
decrease, mentioned by the authors as the cause of transformation of warm air
into cold one, is limited only to the layer near ground, and moreover only
during the cold season.
The further subdivision, introduced by the authors, of masses into marine
and continental is certainly not new and not worth discussing.
"Qualification" of Fronts
Further on the authors introduce a distinction between tropospheric and
near-the-ground frontogenesis. Such terminology is not very successful, as far
as the friction layer concern also the troposphere. The authors connect "tropo-
spheric" frontogenesis only with deforming fields; however convergence as a
front forming factor can hardly be excluded from analysis - not the convergence
of friction, but the convergence of the great vertical propagation as a factor,
if not of basic importance (as in tropics), at least accompanying deformations.
"Near ground" frontogenesis, connected with the convergence of friction, according
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authors formalize this subdivision on the basis of some fixed magnitude of temp-
erature contrast, which alledgedly is a transition point from inacti:aity.to activity.
to the authors, "is rather closely connected with tropospheric frontogenesis"'
and therefore should be related to the increasing (in the case of frontolysis,
blurring) effect of friction vergence on the lower parts of "tropospheric" fronts.
The same near-ground" frontogenesis, according to the authors, is able to
create also fronts "of very small vertical extent, not connected with frontal
zones of the troposphere ... e.g., secondary fronts r'. This also is not new;
the synopticians never thought of connections of secondary cold fronts with
basis frontogenesic fields of the troposphere (i.e. with deforming fields) but
ascribed them to the increase of internal mass gradients of temperature under
effect of convergence. It is obvious that the appearance in this way of
secondary warm fronts is less probable because of more homogeny of warm masses,
but cannot be excluded by principle.
Therefore we see a sufficient analogy between the main fronts and tropo-
spheric fronts of the authors, and between the secondary fronts and the ground
level fronts of the authors.
It is true that, as is clarified later, the authors do not name all tropo-
spheric fronts as basis (i.e. active in relation to cyclogenesis) but only
those in which temperature contrast in the frontal zone attains or exceeds 16 db
per 1000 km. The remaining tropospheric fronts together with near-ground ones
are called secondary by the authors. We cannot say anything against the division
of fronts into cyclogenetically active and cyclogenetically inactive. But the
This "'constant, however, fluctuates in various works of the authors in rather
wide limits, from 16 to 21. db.
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It is rather natural to assume that in reality it fluctuates within still
wider limits, because it is not the only parameter defining the process of
cyclogenesis.
One way or another, we could conserve without harm to the main subject the
term of main fronts instead of tropospheric fronts, as by the authors, and to
speak of active and inactive main fronts, instead of basic and secondary.
The authors could reply that their basic front does not necessarily separate
aerial masses of basic geographical types, e.g. arctic and polar air, but is
able to separate marine polar air from continental polar. We think however that
the thermal contrast will be at its peak in the case of main fronts and there-
fore will secure for them the "qualification" of basic. Connected with them
will be cyclogenesis, as shown by experience, while each main front in non-
tropical latitudes is cyclogenesic until its peak. But if, e.g., cyclogenesis
starts on the occlusion front, then the occlusion front transforms during that
period into a main front.
Occlusion Fronts
The authorsP concepts in the matter, that a cold occlusion represents, so
to speak, a normal case with respect to altitudinal thermobaric field, are
justified. It does not mean that warm occlusions will be a seldom phenomenon,
at least in Europe during the cold season. But it means that in such cases
the vertical power of the frontal cold mass should be sufficiently small, as
not to be noticed on maps OT 5001000. This was often observed in Europe and
in Mierica. Probably it is sometimes difficult to distinguish this type of
occlusion from a front covered by a film of cold air above the continent.
. 10 -
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the authors of frontolysis of the internal
In general the conclusion by th
orresponds to experimental data. FVery synop
part of the occluded cyclone c the occluding
ten the search of fronts near the center of
titian kno~as that of ud ement.
' n leaving a wide range to arbitrary j~ g
cyclone is a difficult opera~2a ,
once found franc leads to great tensions.
The tendency not to pt with the
that occlusian fronts are often abused by
The authors are also correct in t arts
? ~ nsidering secondary cold fronts as bent p
synopticians, particularly zn ~o
eed s opticians always considered such
of occlusion fronts. But exper' ~.en ~
elementary error. The length of the
long -'tails"' of occlusion fronts as an center
exceed the distance covered by the cyclone
tail in any case should not
nd usually it is not greatp The
after the beginning of the occlusion, a
lnevitabi was always acknowledgedg
litY of blurred fronts in an occluded cyclone
dent/ limits the frequency of occlusions
which evl Y
It is not rinciple the possibility
clear however, why the authors deny by p
9
of a. curved occlusion independent of fxontolYsis. The authors say occlusion
fronts do not expd inside a cold region; therefore occlusion francs cannot,.
an
ss by' bending
(? ~2)" However
into the rear . part through the center of coldp.
For a:
a
t
y?
o
bliga
of cold" is not a .
nsfer through the center
't
ra
t the
us tha st
titude cre
rm al
it is quite sufficient that the wa
lusaon a.
f the acc
bending o, south end. of
turning in the cyclonic direction, find itself northward from the
shown by the authors on Fire 2~c. 'T'hen the bent part
as
the cold. cavity, o that the ~,titud~nal seat of cold
of the occlusion front may pass in such a way
~ its rear; and it is not understandable why the occlusion
will locate ? ~t5eif ' ~? ? m ossible
~. p
continued this way on the figure. it would be
could not be
front
100p with
00
o~.y in the case of full coincidence of the minimum on map OT
-ll
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structure of altitude currents in a cyclone, pa
in accordance with
it seems to
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the near-ground bane minimum, i.e. in the case of liquidation of the warm crest
in the internal region of the occluded depression. But this will occur only
in the case where the warm air in the occlusion system will be transported above
surface on X00 nib or, at least, so far as its presence will no longer noticeably
affect the distribution of average temperature in a layer from 1000 to SOO mb.
It is rather probable that the temperature distribution on isobaric surfaces
or, at least, relative topography of thin layers is more able to shed light on
variations of the temperature field during occlusion than the maps OT X00/1000.
8. Fronts in the Anticyclone
It is doubtful that inversions in the free atmosphere of the anticyclones
should. be connected with frontal surfaces, forming the boundaries of two basic
aerial masses (as may be concluded from p. 57). In an anticyclone several
inversions are rather frequently found, located one above the other. If one
of them is frontal (in the sense of the main front), the other should be related
to phenomena of internal mass deposits, similar in some way to secondary fronts.
We cannot agree with the statement by the authors on the "rather secondary"
role of the vertical motions of the air in the process of formation of inver-
sions in anticyclones. It is sufficient to remind ourselves of frequent
frequent temperature jumps on frontal surfaces in anticyclones up to 20?,
which cannot be explained by horizontal displacement, and also the drop of
relative humidity in the inversion layer, clearly connected with temperature
ihcrease with conservation of potential temperature and specific humidity in
the individual element of air.
In summary we may say that the connections between the aerial mass and the
front on one side and the subjects of the advective dynamic analysis on the
other side are not sufficiently outlined in the specified work and. further
12
+ ~m a,
g
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and aerial masses the authors did not succeed in attaining equally valuable
investigations along this line are desirable. Only in this way will it be
possible to attain a synthesis of the frontological method and the advective
dynamical analysis in practical work, a synthesis which until now is stall con-
siderably substituted by mechanical combination. At the same time some situa-
tions in the work are not analyzed enough, some are not new subjects, and there
are no reasons to introduce radical changes or principles into the techniques
of the frontological analysis of near-ground maps. Separate conclusions and
suggestions by the authors (e.g. distinction of warm and cold masses on topo-
graphy maps, criticism of some suggestions concerning occlusion, etc.) are, of
course, correct and are worth consideration in practical work.
The discussed work does, not belong to fundamentals of advective dynamical
analysis, and our criticism does not concern these fundamentals. We are of
the opinion that advective dynamical analysis has indisputable advantages and
value within its range. This is the range of synoptic connections governing
the variations of the baric field. But within the range dealing with fronts
results.
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