EIC/S BRIEF ON SUBCOMMITTEE ON INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00283R000200050016-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 1998
• Sequence Number: 16
• Content Type: REPORT

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ON SMOG
MACRIRT AND REIl N
General Concepts and Functions of FIC Subcommittees,
C..D..123/2, 20 December 1955
SC Terms of Reference approved 3.9 March 1954
So Annual Report for h 1956 (NIC-D-187, 19 October 1956)
so Annual Report for FY 1957 (tic.,D-2b9, 17 September 1957)
1. This subcommittee has been moderately active during the past
active as in the put, principally because as
he research efforts of the participating agencies
did not require as Ui& a level of SC activity as in previous yam.
were held] during FY 1957, 5 meetings;
2 meetings have been held. The subcommittee's principal,
activities
priority deficiencie
past year inoludeds preparation of a survey Of
and equipment (now in EIC/S
approval) i assistance
ch on Sino-.Soviet MA)C industrial mach ry
review prior to submission to ZIC for
TAC ad hoc Committee on F hanger in the
evaluation and planning with regard to a Soviet proposal for exchange
of delegations in the forging press ind stryi and consideration of
Theses x and II of an Air Force-sponsored external research project.
2. Other subcommittee activities includeds
a. feview of ssubstant ,.per! -- In the past the has
d several substantive papers each year, but this year the
pea ar^ 1discussed was the Air Force _*+ 'a Studv of 49YI-Ilt
Heavy Machine Buildi J & ustr ease 1) which was considered as
P? X
the work progressed. Discussi one iholuded the methodology used, proposed
utilization o# the and probable utility. The finished report on
ewed carefully
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y
In addition,, two CU papers a
a aaarly review by the subcomitteO.
b. ~eaa~r of 2E~ls for exte.
rr n ++
ideration
d external research were submitted for
Cift
project was presented Informally
n
and its feasibility discussed,
Air
Air Target Studies ,ae-
A.
of the
the SC view
'The SC did not engage in '
in the past. Mange
Itt
use of CIA production est
e decreased attention.
a+eara_ - At the end
in filling identified
and noted that significant progress
rasa m of the character of die currm yin the
roseavh effort of the Varir participating agenaleal, J a
realised i t# p t ntiel wing the pest year, g in large
part to the active interests par icipation and cooperation
of the representatives of an 'the participating agencies.
iubco ttee wa uates its role any folloWM
t 4m it that the Subcamittes has effectively
research gaps. (See Annex A to SO Annual
o antttee activity ow not, osventl^L
at par ici ticnn by the Department of the Navy, through
a ,tion to the membership of a representative of tail,,
iiceld zeetteria: enhance the Subcc .ttse'ei capability
usefW ee s.
are no outstana9ling a nists*ativas pre b3
4mra*A4ruY the Subcomdttee. foer, it is felt
1l x.953 as in previous Years.
IPPER"OOM TT9
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14, The future program of the subcoranittee, as outlined in its
A? wl Report, indicates that the SC plans to i ntae n its organization
and to most at appropriate tines to accomplish the following principal
: b eectivest
-or significant substantive inW.
6*
blems i
of the out
basic statistics in its field,
as 80
John 4.
Coal. Josiah M.
Donald L. Zoll
John H. William
as Executive
p ace has been particularly exemplary and his contribution to the
of, and, the progress of, external research in Its
field of interest; e
b, view progrees being muds toward closing priority
r arch gaps and determine priority deficiencies
collection;
Go C ider plane of participating agencies for initiation
pirtioulArly in view of the augmented publication by
i countries of industrial production ota tti
monualttesa got off to a good
lied in their annual report for Pr 1955. A good share
of the SC has been the result of the good work of
fine performance of
ognized by all its members.
participation of the representatives of the interested
25X1A9a
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 d an the Air Force, due to reorganisation'-
a nt been
increasin
ha t
g
o
The subcommittee feels it$ crk would benefit
has been brought up before but CSI has
ion in 2.305 and may not
1 that thor
ONI representation
furnish a
, in the "so of the Chemicals 7 named an
and Telecommunications na eI a "Oonaultant't
cmmi.ttee has also been concerned about the review of
W,-k/
xh projects that it was not enough to jut' '
a --at the proposal, say OK, and then forget it. The paarti+ er J., [.[;-
re arch a a their field was/~* Fie planning study onUSoviet
Heavy Machine Building industry Phase-/TA ri r
signed to derive patterns of inputs by process anxlywis~sari was to be
cllvwed by Phase IIjan analysis of the industries' products utilizing
ess inputs c eloped in Phase Z. The SO questioned the availability
reasonable accuracy in the Phase I study, and felt that
d not be undertaken until a careful look could be given to.
the results of Phase I. The Phase I report was not yet finished when the
AF had to contract for Phase I:L.
The SC discussed thi'pproject at se length with AF representatives,
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in, the 'haw II contract so that any suggestione the SIC d make could
sc.
be consideereU there is apparently constiderable feed that tier 4
I&
.-s changed, in the present
moored external research,if mulmm benefits and
this is. not a ' problem as far as external resee r& is nonce;
receivin fn''tsita and iet s( es ,they are
I-- -
r eleutz as the, Air
without any of the over-all
problem also appears to
OA4 d
to er e' bit and pieces Part of the
develope? there is a natural reluctance to
ral feeling that knmn deficiencies in dicta may in
being
and
u asurab3e bies',or erro~, in the results, so that estimates arrived at
by the ns,r techniques would be unacceptable to the rest of the community.
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"There are no outstanding administrative'problems presently
impeding the Subcommittee. However, it is felt that participation
by the Department of the Navy, through addition to the membership
of a repres tative of ONI, would materially enhance the Subcommittee's
capability and usefulness."
4. The subcommittee plans to maintain its organization and to meet at
appropriate times to accomplish the following principal objectives, as out-
lined in its Annual Reports
a. Review significant substantive intelligence product in its
:field;
b. Review progress being made toward closing priority research
gaps and determine priority deficiencies in collection;
c. Consider plans of participating agencies for initiation of,
tnd the progress of, external research in its field of
interest; and
d. Examine the state of basic statistics in its field, particu-
larly in view of the augmented publication by the Bloc 4 `"-
1To1 ES AND RECOMM2NDATIONS (For Chairman Only)
The following agencies 22X1 aresented on this Subcommittee:
,state John G. Oliver
Army Col. Josiah M. Towne
Air Force Donald L. Zoll
OSD John H. Williams
Chairman
utive Secretary
6. This subcommittee got off to a good start, tackling the problems
identified in their annual report for FY 1955 and following through in
FY's 1956 and 1957. A good 2 .f aof the success of thgXSCA9has been the
result of the good work of 1aer I~
as SC chairmathe fine performance of as Executive
z% W
Secretary. performance has been particularly exemplary and
his contribution to the SC is recognized by all its members. The partici-
pation of the representatives of the interested agencies has been quite active.
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7. A present problem of the SC is the less obvious need for extensive
interagency coordination in this field due to shifting emphasis in agency
operations. Increasingly CIA is doing the substantive work in this field
while the Air Force, due to reorganization and shifting emphasis in its work,
to an increasing extent has been going out of the business.
8. The subcommittee feels its work would benefit from ONI representation
on the SC. This has been brought up before, but ONI has never designated a
committee representative. During the past year ONI has withdrawn from active
participation in 2 other SC's and may not feel that it can furnish a man for
IDES. However, in the case of the Chemicals SC, ONI named an "Observer", and
for Electronics and Telecommunications named a "Consultant". Some such
arrangements might be made for this SC, enabling the SC to draw on Navy support,
if required.
9. This subcommittee has also been concerned about the review of external
research projects, feeling that it was not enough to look at the proposal, say
OK, and then forget it. The particular external research project considered in
their field was a phased Air Force Planning Study on Soviet Heavy Machine
Building Industry. Phase I of this project was primarily designed to derive
patterns of inputs by process analysis and was to be followed by Phase II, an
analysis of the industries' products utilizing the process inputs developed in
phase I. The SC questioned the availability of data to insure reasonable
accuracy in the Phase I study, and felt that Phase II should not be undertaken
until a careful look could be given to the results of Phase I. The Phase I
report was not yet finished when the AF had to contract for Phase II.
The SC discussed this project at some length with AF representatives,
and while it has been indicated that there is still considerable flexibility
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in the Phase II contract -- so that any suggestions the SC desired to make
could be considered -- there is apparently considerable SC feeling that
some change is needed in the present procedure for coordination of government-
sponsored external research, if maximum benefits and minimum costs to the
government are to be ensured.
This is not a NEW problem as far as external research is concerned --
part of the problem stems from receiving over-all research programs in "bits
and pieces", as they are ready for contracting (such as the several Air Force
projects bearing on the construction of Soviet industry-process-models) with-
out any review of the over-all program or the relationship between the over-all
projects and the "bits and pieces". Part of the problem also appears to be
that when new analytical techniques are being developed and tested, there is
a natural reluctance to approve the new methods, and a general feeling that
known deficiencies in data may introduce unmeasurable bias, or error, in the
results, so that estimates arrived at by the newer techniques would be
unacceptable to the rest of the community.
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