THIRD ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT TO THE IAC OF THE SCIENTIFIC ESTIMATES COMMITTEE SEPTEMBER 1954 - AUGUST 1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300050065-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 22, 2004
• Sequence Number: 65
• Publication Date: October 18, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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IAC-D-74/3
18 October 1955
Third Annual Progress Report to the IAC
of the Scientific Estimates Committee
September 1954 - August 1955
I. Authority for the Scientific Estimates Committee
The Scientific Estimates Committee was established on
14 August 1952 by DCID 3/4, pursuant to the provisions of NSCID
No. 3 and the recommendation of the IAC Ad Hoc Committee to
Survey Existing Arrangements Relating to Production of Scientific
and Technical Intelligence (IAC-M-79), 14 August 1952).
II. Organization of the Scientific Estimates Committee
DCI' 3/4 provides ghat the permanent membership of the SEC
shall consist of representatives from CIA, The Joint Staff, the De-
partments of State, Army, Navy, and Air Force Force., and the
Atomic Energy Commission. The AEC member has not participated
in the activities of the SEC but has indicated that he would participate
in the future in matters of direct interest to the AEC. (Note:
Atomic energy intelligence was assigned to the Joint Atomic Energy
Intelligence Committee by DCID 3/4. )
The SEC has no permanent subcommittee structure; however,
it employs ad hoc subcommittees, when needed, to discuss or
report upon particular subjects under consideration.
III. Responsibilities and Accomplishments of the Scientific
Estimates Committee
DCID 3/4 assigns the SEC three responsibilities, and in
addition recommends "that the SEC concentrate on the integration
of intelligence opinion (other than that for which JAEIC is respon
sible) as and when required for the purposes of national intelligence,
and only incidentally assist in the coordination of production of,
other intelligence in scientific and technical fields."
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The accomplishments of the SEC under each of its responsi-
bilities are summarized below:
A. The SEC shall "integrate scientific and technical
intelligence, as and when required, for the production of
national intelligence" .
1. The SEC integrated scientific and technical
contributions to eight National Intelligence Estimates.
A tabulation of these contributions is at Tab A.
2. In addition, in fulfillment of its implicit responsi-
bility to improve the scientific and technical intelligence
contribution to national intelligence, the SEC:
a. Initiated, in collaboration with the Joint Atomic
Energy Intelligence Committee the establishment of
national scientific and technical intelligence objectives
in the light of the National Intelligence Objectives
(DCID 4/4).
b. Produced, at the direction of the IAC (IAC-D-80,
as approved in IAC-M-138), SEC 3-55, _Bi.ol.o.gical
Warfare Intelligence Deficiencies and Recommended
Means for Their Elimination.
c. In compliance with IAC directive (IAC- M-191)
initiated a progress report to the IAC on action taken
by the intelligence community to implement the recom-
mendations of SEC 3-55,. Biological Warfare Intelli-
gence Deficiencies and Recommended Means for Their
Elimination. The progress report will be completed
in October 1955.
d. Agreed to revise SEC 2-54, Soviet Biological
Warfare Capabilities through 1960, within six months
after submission of the above mentioned.. progre s s
report to the IAC in order to incorporate more recent
information developed by coordinated measures taken.
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e. Made substantial progress in an all-source research
project on an agreed list of potential Soviet biological 25X1
warfare installations. This coordinated effort, which
will be completed in the. second quarter of Fiscal Year
1956, has established valuable integrated intelligence on
personalities, organizations, and activities in this field.
f. Reviewed for the IAC, itt compliance with IAC
directive (Item 3, IAC-M-200), the proposed . DCID 3/6,
Establishment of a Guided Missile Intelligence Committee
(IAC-D-8.1/9), and submitted.: its reportto the IAC.
g. Completed a survey of critical deficiencies in
meteorological intelligence on the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
with indications of SEC remedial action to be-taken and
with recommendations to the IAC for appropriate addi-
tional remedial action which, in the opinion of the SEC,
were beyond the purview of the SEC. The survey is under
review by an IAC ad hoc committee.
h. Prepared the scientific and technical intelligence
contribution to the IAC Annual Report to the NSC on the
Status of Foreign Intelligence for the Period 1 July 1954
through 30 June 1955.
i. Provided assistance to member agencies in planning
production. of. scientific and technical intelligence, mini-
mizing duplication of research effort, and identifying
possible gaps in coverage, through production of. the
second "Annual Report of the Status of Scientific and
Technical Intelligence Production Projects" and a semi-
annual supplement. This series of reports covers in-
ternal and external research projects of member agencies.
B. The SEC shall "coordinate the production of Chapter VII of
the NIS"
1. The SEC coordinated the production of 20 Sections of
Chapter VII, Scientific, and five Sections 17 of Chapter I,
Brief, of the NIS. A tabulation of these contributions is at
Tab B.
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2. The SEC prepared a revised forecast of areas re-
quiring scientific intelligence coverage in the NIS and pro-
posed a two-year program (through Fiscal Year 1958) for
production of NIS Chapter VII, which the NIS Committee
approved. In addition, the SEC submitted for NIS Committee
approval a tentative program for production of NIS Chapter
VII in Fiscal Year 1959. The forecast, which was approved
by the NIS Committee, permits more effective concentration
of scientific and technical intelligence manpower on Sino-
Soviet Bloc countries and provides for necessary coverage
of non-Bloc countries of scientific and technical intelligence
importance. The advanced programming provides time for
collection in response to specific collection requirements
and for ensuing research.
C. The SEC shall "stimulate and guide interagency liaison
and such working-level conferences as may be appropriate"
IV. Objectives for the Coming Year
In accordance with DCID 3/4, the SEC will continue to work
toward the principal objective of. strengthening the over-all governmental
intelligence structure for the production of scientific and technical
intelligence. In pursuit of this objective, the SEC will make a concerted
effort during the coming year to:
25X1
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A. Integrate scientific and technical intelligence for the
production of national intelligence by:
1. Producing SEC contributions to National Intelligence
Estimates in which the scientific factor merits consideration.
2. Conducting post-mortems of the scientific and
technical portions of certain National Intelligence Estimates,
particularly those which are revised periodically.
3. In addition, in fulfillment of its implicit responsibility
to improve the scientific and technical intelligence contribution
to national intelligence, the SEC proposes to:
a. Establish, in collaboration with the Joint Atomic
Energy Intelligence Committee, national scientific
and technical intelligence objectives in the light of the
National Intelligence Objectives (DCID 4/4).
b. Produce a comprehensive estimate of the develop-
ment and utilization of science in the USSR.
c. Initiate detailed SEC studies in certain scientific
and technical intelligence fields as necessary to provide
basic papers in support of national intelligence require-
ments.
d. Conduct, both under IA.C direction and at its own
initiative, substantive surveys in various fields of
scientific and technical intelligence for the purpose of
identifying critical deficiencies related to consumer
requirements and recommending means for their
elimination.
e. Submit a progress report to the IAC on action
taken by the intelligence community to implement the
recommendations of SEC 3-55, Critical Deficiencies
in Biological Warfare Intelligence. Further, to re-
view periodically the progress made in other fields
on which the SEC has conducted substantive surveys.
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f. Revise SEC 2-54, Soviet Biological Warfare Capa-
bilities through 1960, during the final quarter of Fiscal
Year 1956 in order to incorporate more recent informa-
tion developed by coordinated measures taken to
implement the recommendations of SEC 3-55.
g. Complete coordinated all-source research on an
agreed list of potential biological warfare installations.
B. Coordinate the production of Chapter VII of the NIS by:
1. Integrating contributions to NIS Chapter VII, Scientific,
and NIS Section 17, Scientific, in accordance with the production
program proposed by the SEC for Fiscal Year 1956 and approved
by the NIS Committee.
2. Continuing to program NIS Chapter VII production
three years beyond the current fiscal year in order to provide
ample time for collection activities in response to specific
requirements and for ensuing research.
C. Stimulate and guide interagency liaison and such working-
level conferences as may be appropriate by:
1. Providing assistance to member agencies in planning
production of scientific and technical intelligence and in
minimizing duplication of research effort, through continued
production of an SEC annual report, with semi-annual supple-
ments, of the status of scientific and technical intelligence
production projects in member agencies and by other means.
2. Contributing to improved collection of scientific and
technical intelligence information through coordinated re-
quirements and guidance in certain fields of common concern
to the community.
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