VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 12-54: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES THROUGH MID-1956, PUBLISHED 24 AUGUST 1954

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100131-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 4, 2004
• Sequence Number: 131
• Publication Date: January 10, 1956
• Content Type: STUDY

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IA.C-D-100/3
10 January 1956
Validity Study of NIE 12-54:
Probable Developments in the European Satellites
Through Mid-1956,
published 24 August 1954
1. NIE 12- 54 appears to have been in general an adequate
statement of the aims of the Soviet Union in the Satellite area and
of the probable courses of action of the Satellite regimes. With
the lapse of one year, however, certain modifications of 12-54
appear to be indicated.
2. In its political sections, NIE 12-54 lays great emphasis
on the firmness of Soviet control and the character of the control
system. While this emphasis was justified, there was little dis-
cussion of the problems which confronted Soviet policy makers in
their efforts to maximize the value of the Satellites to the USSR,
nor any appreciation of alternative approaches to these problems
which Soviet leaders might consider. The over-all effect of 12-54
is to imply inflexibility on the part of the Soviets at a time when in
fact the implementation of their policy was undergoing modification.
3. The estimates for the growth of GNP and for nonagri-
culture production for the years 1954-1956 appear to have been
somewhat low. In the case of East Germany, however, the pro-
jected rate of economic growth appears to have been high. Whereas
we had estimated that by 1956 East Germany would replace Poland
as the leading contributor to Satellite GNP, we no longer believe
this to be the case. We now think that this will not take place even
by 1960. The estimate did not take sufficient account of the extent
and concreteness of projects for increased regional coordination
of planning to begin in 1956.
4. In the military field, NIE 12-54 overestimated per-
sonnel strength increases of Satellite ground forces and under-
estimated the combat effectiveness of ground and air forces,
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10 January 1956
including their political reliability. NIE 1 Z- 54 estimated aug-
mentation of Satellite ground forces of 150, 000 men by mid- 1955.
It is now believed that ground forces will increase in strength by
only 115, 000 by 1960. We believe this will occur despite
Satellite announcements of proposed strength reductions. As to
reliability, in NIE 12-54 we estimated the Satellite armed forces
through 1956 would remain questionable enough to place a sig-
nificant limitation on their usefulness in the event of general war.
On reconsideration, we now believe that their combat effectiveness,
including reliability, and especially that of ground forces, was sub-
stantially greater than estimated.
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SECKE