JPRS ID: 9050 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY NO.12, FEBRUARY 1980

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 i . T _ T' AI~~IL ~r FEBf~I.#A~`r' 1 ~F ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFF~CIAL USE ONLY ~ JPRS L/9050 22 ARril ~980 USSR Re ort p _ METEOROLOGY AND HYDROL~?GY No. 2~ February 19~0 _ FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE _ . FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 NOTE ` JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign _ newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets [J are supplied by JPRS. 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COPYRIGIiT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF - MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE OYLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JPFcS L/9050 22 April 1980 " USSR REPORT METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY No. 2, February 1980 _ Translation of the Russian-language monthly journal METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA published in ~Ioscow by Gidrometeoizdat. CONTENTS Decree of the CPSU Central Committee and USSR Council of Ministers on - Awarding of USSR State Prizes for 1979 in the Field of Science and Technology 1 - Statistical Prediction of Radiation and Radiation-Advective Fogs - ~ (P. K. Dushkin) 4 The Boundary Condition in Prablems of Atmospheric Diffusion of an Admixture - (N. L. Byzova, et al.) 15 Prediction of Air Contamination Over the ~paheron Peninsula (A. A. Gc~rchiyev and R. M. Ra.fiyev) 25 Influence of Direction of Transport of Air Masses on the Content of Organic Microadmixtures in Precipitati4n . (L. A. Volokitina and V. S. Shuklin) 33 - Objective Analysis of the Tropopause (V. A. Gordin and Ye. A. Loktionova) 40 . Checking of the Applicability of Balance Equations on the Basis of Empirical Data (A. M. Babaliyev, et al.) 50 - Some Methods for Parameterization of Subgrid Proceases (Ye. Ye. Kalenkovich, et al.) 60 ~ - a- IIII - USSR - 33 S& T FOIIO] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 rVit urrl~tru, uar. VL\~l ~ CONTENTS (Continued) PaBe Hurricanes of Middle-Latitude Seas and Their Consequences _ (L. N. Ikonnikova) 68 Some Features of Water Circulation in the North Atlantic (A. A. Kutalo 79 Comparison of Satellite and Shipboard Data on Temperature Measurements of the Water Surface in the Equatorial Atlantic (A. D. Kirichek, A. F. Lyashenko) 89 Accuracy in Computing the Mont.hly Water Balance of the Aral Sea (V. N. Bortnik) 95 Use of the Residual Method of Statisti~al Analysis for the Investigation of Hydrometeorological Processes - (A. R. Kostantinov, N. M. Khimin) 104 Calculation of Length of Sand Ridges in Open Flows (B. F. Snishchenko) 115 Inventory of Agroclimatic Resources in the Specialization of Agricultural Production in the Ukraine (V. P. Dmitrenko, et al.) 126 Conservative Value in a Barotropic Model With Allawance for Relief (Z. V. Khvedelidze) 137 Ozone Content in an Urban Atmosphere in Dependence on Meteorological - Conditions (V. A. Popov, et al.) 140 C~lculations of Air Hum~dity Over the Sea from thp Water-Air Temperature Differences (V. G. Snopkov) 145 - Atmospheric Investigations Abroad Using A~rcraft Laboratories (Yu. V. Mel'nichuk, et al.) 149 Sixtieth Birthday of Ivan Pavlovich Vetlov 162 - Seventieth Birthday of Aleksey Aleksandrovich Sokolov 164 Professor Ye. G. Popov Honored 168 At the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (V. N. Drozdov) 169 _ b _ - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONTENTS (Continued) page Conferencea, Meetings and Sem3nars ' (Yu. G. Slatinskiy, et al.) 171 - Notes From Abroad (V. I. Silkin) 180 - - - c - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY r- APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . PUBLICATION DATA Bnglieh title ~ METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY - Russian title ~ METEOROLOGIYA i ~IDROLOGIYA Author (s) ~ Editor (s) : Ye. I. Tolstikov ~ Publishing House : Gidrometeoizdat Place of Publicati4n : Moscow Date of Publication : February 1980 - ~ Signed to pres3 ' : 24 Jan 80 _ Copies ~ 3760 COPYRIGHT : "Meteorologiya i gidrologiya", 1980 - d - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 _ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DECREE OF THE CPSU CENTRAL COMMITTEE AND USSR COUNCIL OF MINISTERS ON AWARDII~G OF USSR STATE PRIZES FOR 1979 IN THE FIELD OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOi,OGY - - Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 2, Feb 80 pp 4-5 [Unsigned decree] - [Text] The CPSU Central Committee and the USSR Council of Ministers, after examining the proposals of the Committee on the Lenin and State Prizes USSR in the Field of Science and Technology of the USSR Council of Min- iaters, decrees the awarding of the USSR State Prizes for 1979: II. In the Field of Technology _ 2. To Petr Vasil'yevich Babkin, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, to Igor' Mikhaylovich Nazarov, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Deputy Director of the Institute of Applied Geophysics, to Lidiya Ivanovna Boltneva, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sci- ences, senior scientific speciaYist, worker at this same institute, ~ to Vlad~mir Aleksandrovich Ionov, Candidate of Physical and Mathemat- ical Sciences, senior scientif ic specialist, woxker at this same insti- - tute, to Shepa Davidovich Fridman, Candidate of Technical Sciences, deputy division head, worker at this same iustitute, - to Aleksandr Vladimirovich Matveyev, Candidate of Technical Sciencea, Deputy Director of the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Explor- ~ atory Geophyaics, _ to Vya~heslav Borisovich Stepanov, chief engineer, worker at this same institute, ~ 1 - FOR OFFICIAL uSE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - ~ ~ a. _ Y ' - L. I. Boltneva A. V. Ihnitriyev ' ` ~s < n, _ : ~ ~ ~ l "`i"t,, - r . . IOAOV . . SZ8TOV ~ ~ - a~w y'~i'&~ < ' K . S': . ~(.E ~ . . _ f' ~ ' . . . ` ' 1,~. N ry 1' . ' >;y - Y _ M. V. Nikiforov Sh. D. Fridman 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - to Vad3m Valentinovich Filimonov, Candidate of Technical Sciences, div- is3.on head, worker at this same institute, to Pavel Nikolayevich Fogt, division head, worker at this same insti- - tute, _ to Mikhail Vladimirovich, Candidate of Physical and *4athematical Sci- - ~ences, laboratory head at the Al~l-Union Scientific Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology, = to Emiliya Yakovlevich Ostrovskiy, Doctor of Technical Sciencea, sen- - ior scientific specialist at the All-Union Scien~if ic Research Institute - of Mineral Raw Material, to Aleksey Viktorovich Dmitriyev, physica?. engineer, for theoretical and experimental development and introduction into the national economy of a gamma-spectroti~etric method for remote sensing of the environment, search for and detection of depoeita of nonferrous, rare and noble metals. 3 FOR OF~'ICIAL US .F. ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE UNLY UDC 551.509.(314+55) STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF RADIATIOtl AND RADIATION-ADVECTIVE FOGS Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 2, FPh 80 pp 6-13 [Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences P. K. Dushkin, Moscow, submitted for publication 17 May 1979] Abstract: The author has developed a method - for statistical alternative prediction of radiation and radiation-advective foga on the basie of atandard meteorological measure- ~ menta at a single point. Empirical graphs of - discriminant functions were constructed for uae in prediction. None nf the computations require the use of an electronic computer. The direct use of long-term observations at some atation is a prerequisite for taking regional peculiaritiea into account. The method was checked by the aiithor using data from long-term observations at a nwmber of stations in Mc+skovskaya Oblast, containing more than 1,000 cases favorable for fog pre- - diction. On the average, the sum of errors of the first and second kinds does not exceed 0.40. ~ [TextJ A great number of investigations have been devoted to the physical and synoptic conditions for fog formation. The list of publications on the problems involved in fog prediction has lengthened [2]. However, if we evaluate the purely practical side of solution of the problem, here we do not note any significant progress. � ' However strange it may seem, neither the investigations of the prediction - methods no~ the systematic studies carried out in the Hydrometeorological Service for evaluating the success in predicting fogs make possible a sufficiently true determination of the attained level. This is attributable to the fact that in the evaluation of predictiona it is customary to uae the general guaranteed probability test, representing the ratio of the number of predictions which have proven correct to the total number - 4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED F~R RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY of forecasts. The application of this evaluation has already been sub- jected to criticism in [1]. We recall that the general guaraneeed prob- ability is dependent not only on the effectiveness of the method, but also on climatic characteristics. The general guaranteed probability in essence is an evaluation of the probability of a correct forecast. For eaample, applicable to fogs it can be represented__in the form - U=1-[a,P(~)+~ P~~)~~ where U is the general guaranteed probab3lity, oC = p(~f/~) and ~ s , ` p( ~f/C~ ) are errors of the first and second kinda; the symbols ~ and ~ - are used in denoting a fog and its absence respectively and ~f and ~f are forecasts of these events. In accordance with the definition of general guaranteed probability cited above, it is unthinkable to use it for a comparative evaluation of the auccess of fore~asts in different climatic zonea. A necessary and adequate condition for fog formation in the most general form can be represented in the form of the relationship T5 0,25 0,08 O,ti7 (~1e, y3) 0,20 0,1~ 0,6ri 1X, lll, IV js 0,10 0,15 0.75 KEY: 1. Model ~y; 2. 1f = f (orecast) 1. Sample group 2. N, tenths � In conclusion we will examine a final variant of the forecasting method. A distinguishing characteristic of the V3 value is that the significance _ of the velocities Vlg, V20, V22 determining it as predictors increases with increasing distance from the initial observation time at 1800 hours. _ In order to take this peculiarity into account and smooth the high- 10 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 ~ _ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - frequency velocity fluctuations, we introduce smoothing in the form ~22 = aV22 + abV20 + b2V18, where a+ b= 1, a) b. A numerical experi~- _ ment made it possible to select a suitable value a= 0.8. _ ~pF. ~ r, e ` i 6) 6 ~ - ~ ~ 9 ; ~ 4 ~~`2 ~ ~ . ~ ~ -2 _ . '1 . 2 ~ 1 . ~ ~ - i ~ m/aec 0 2 4 0 2 4 VH/CeK ti Fig. 1. Graph for predicting fogs in March, April, September (August) (a) and in October, November, December, January and February (b). 1) N~ 5/10, - 2) N < 5/10. _ Table 3 Table 4 Diagnostic Evaluations. Model (~18, Evaluations of Diagnosis and Predic- V22), 1947-1961 CHS tion on Basis of Independent Observ- ~ ations i962-1971 I'pynna 1 N~ 2 y ~ Q CHS c.. c - awGopsu I6an.twl I I 1 ~ ~g~ - - - OnepauiiA ~ ~ 4) ~ G Uo 1?C, II1, 11~' ~ 5 0,17 O,1G (?,67 q2 0~ , 0,20 U, IU 0,70 `CI, XII, 0,20 0,11 0.6!) 311i~~rtios 0,14U,1~iU,G~S~ U,i-1 0,9U 0.930,53 KEY� ~5 U,21 0,13 U.fi6 ~Y: 4np~ruo~ 0,2UU,140,66i 0,67 U,9'l 0,820,L~.3 ~1. Sample group 1. Operation 2. N, tenths ~ 2. 1T = f(orecast) - 3. Diagnosis 4. Forecast . The figure shows ~urves for discriminanc functions constructed on the ba- sis of the (d18, V22) model. It is interesting that attempts to use d,20 or 0 22 ins~ead of Q 18 were unsuccessful. The diagnostic evaluations of the (Q lg, V22) model are presented j.n Table 3. The~r comparison with the resulta obtained earlier (Tabi~, 1) indicate a successful chotce of the - predictor ~22. . 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ Table 5 Evaluations of Forecasts at Airports and for the Entire Moscow Airport Complex in a Seriea of Observations 1965-1970 - - OLLeHKU BHYKOHO AnMOAC- WCpC� fjdK080 Agpaysen j(OBO NCTbE80 1 2 3 4 5 6 a 0,16 0,23 0,22 0,26 0,21 a 0,23 0,16 0,17 0.20 0,19 Q`, 0,61 Q,fi l 0,61 0,54 0,60 U 0,8? 0,79 0,80 0,76 0,00 Uo 0,67 0,51 0,52 0.52 0,56 _ - ~(mJmQ) ] 0.60 0,53 O,o4 O.f,O 0,60 p(m/mQ) 0,93 0,94 0,91 0,88 0,9? ~ KEY: ~ 1. Evaluations 2. Vnukovo 3. Domodedovo _ 4. Sheremet'yevo 5. Bykovo ' - 6. Airport complex 7. 1~ = f (orecast) The data in Table 4 give~ some idea concerning the evaluations obtained when testing the p 18, V22 model on the basis of independent observational data. The table includes additional evaluations: U-- general guaranteed probability, Up guaranteed probability of a random forecast, and also ' evaluations of the probabilities p(~ / c~f) and p(~/ ~ f), introduced for - the first time by N. A. Bagrov [1]. They determine the soundness of cate- _ gorical formulations of prediction of a fog and its absence. It is of interest to study the possibilities of using the developed graphs for predicting fogs in different regions of the country. A solution of - thia problem involves processing of long-term meteorological observations at many stations. We have already taken the initial step in this direc- tion: we carried out checking of effectiveness using data from a 6-year series of ~bservations at the airports Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Sheremet'yevo, Bykovo, repre~ented in the form of coded telegrams. 12 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY i Now we will evaluate the quality of the meteorological observationa at the mentioned airports (1965-1970). In contrast to the observations at the C?iS (1947-1961), where the humidity measurements were made with a paychrometer at poaitive temperatures and with a hair hygrameter in the ca8e of negative temperatures, the data for the Moacow airports contain information on humid- ity measured year-round using a hair hygrometer. Thus, the humidity meas- urements at airports were made for the most part with large errors. An ob- vious shortcoming of the analyzed data is also the rounding-off of air temperatures and dew point to whole degrees, accomplished during the coding of ineteorological observations. The results of checking of the forecasting method on the basis of the model are presented in Table 5. Their comparison with the data in Table 4 shows that at airports there is some worsening in the quality of forecasts (a decrease in Q on the average by 6%), which is a result of the above-men- tioned errors in observational data. To be sure, it is not impossible that a decrease in the quality of forecasts is to some degree a result of the manifestation of local conditions, about which we know nothing. For ex- ample, the decrease in Q by 12% at Bykovo is evidently caused by the in- fluence of some local conditions. Despite some worsening in the evaluations of the forecasts, the main con- clusion drawn from tpsts of the method is that the developed graphs can be employed successfully, at least in the Moscow region. We emnhasize that the fog forecasts made by the method prope~_3 in this study are characterized on the average by the evaluation Q= 0.60. As a comparison we recall that for the prediction of thunderstorms by different methods this evaluation _ falls in the range 0.23-0.35 [lJ. With respect to the possibilities of using the proposed graphs in other re- gions of the country, this problem can be solved only after corresponding - testr~. The following conclusions are possible. 1. The graphs can be used in the particular region in unmodified form. 2. It is necessary to take into account regional characteristics within the = - framework of the recommended predictors, but the graphs must be recon- structed, using local meteorological observations far this purpose. The archival data used for this purpose, depending on the frequency of recur- rence of fogs in the particular ~egion, must usually incorporate a 10-15- year series of observations. In some regions with a relatively great fre- - quency of recurrence of fogs the volume of archival data used in con- structing the graphs can be limited to a 5-year series of hourly observa- tions . 3. Necessary allowance for local peculiarities must be made by making use of additional components of the vector-predictor. 13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Bagrov, N. A., "Statietical Analyeis of the Reaulte of Tests of Some - Methods for Predicting Thunderstorms," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteoralogy and Hydrology), No 8, 1965. - 2. Berlyand, M. Ye., Vorontsov, P. A., et al., TUMANY (Fogs), Leningrad, - Gidrometeoizdat, 1961. 3. Matveyev, L. T., OSNOVY OBSHCHEY METEOROLOGII (Principles of General Meteorology), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1965. 4. RUKOVODSTv~ PO KRATKOSROCHNYM PROGNOZAM POGODY (Manual on Short-Range Weather Forecasting), Part II, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1965. ~ i ~ ~ 14 ; FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UDC 551.551.8 THE BOUNDARY CONDITION IN PROBLEMS OF ATMOSPHERIC DIFFUSION OF AN ADMIXTURE _ Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 2, Feb 80 pp 14-20 [Article by Doctor of Physical and Ma.thematical Sciences N. L. Byzpva, - I. A. Krotova and G. A. Natanzon, Institute of Experimental Meteorologyr submitted for publication 23 February 1979] Abstract: In the ~oint solution of the prob- lem of dynamics and diffusion it is desirable to formulate boundary conditions for the ad- - mixture at the dynamic roughness level, rather than having a common boundary for all equations in the system. The parameter in the boundary condition for the concentration of admixture charar.terizing its entrapment can be obtained by scaling the experimental values of the rate - o~ dry precipitation to the level z= z~. The article gives a review of the experimental values of the rate of dry precipitation. The authors analyze the results of numerical solu- tion of the diffusion equation with a boundary condition of the mixed type. A region of val- ues of the rate of dry precipitation, trans- itional from a total reflection regime to a total absorption regime,'which corresponds to the real range of ineasured values, is detected. [Text] A more precise determination of the boundary condition at the under- lying surface in problems of the diffusion of an admixture in the atmosphere - is of. considerable interest in those cases when the contamination of the soil by the effluent of industrial enterprises is investigated because even limited fallout of contaminating matter from the atmosphere over a prolonged period can lead to appreciable concentrations on its surface. Within the framework of the semiempirical theory this boundary condition, introduced independently in [9J and [13J, has the following form: ' p~ K ds + wq = vq. (1) 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL U5E UtvLY The ec;uation for computing vertical diffusicn of an admixture from a long- - = acting source is written in the form: aQ aq _ a aq U a~ w ad as K a" � ~ 2~ ~ Here P is the flux of admixture onto the underlying surface, K is the co- efficient of vertical turbulent diffusiori, U is wind velocity, q is the concentration of admixture, w is the rate of gravitational precipitation of admixture particles in the calm air, v is a characteristic having the dimensionality of velocity. For the purpose ~f a clearer understanding of the physical sense of condi- tion (1) we will examine a case when near the underlying surface horizon- tal transfer can be neglected and the vertical flux can be considered approxitpately constant with altitude. This can occur, in particular, at ' an adequate distance from it. Limiting ourselves to the case of a weight- , less admixture (w = 0), assuming Ksx upz. ~3~ where u* is dynamic velocity, from (2) in this approximation we have . 9~x~ z) = px 1 n P= y~~ (4 ) Here ln zg is an integration constant, for the time being not determined, and the value - - - - - - _ . V ~Z~ ~ X Uy in (z~zg) (5) _ can be considered as not dependent on x. The experiments show that the vertical flux of admixture near the earth - in actuality is proportional to the surface concentration. The V(z) g~ir- - ameter, which is usually called the "rate of dry precipitation," is de- pendent both on the pro~erties of the admixture and the underlying sur- face and on meteorological conditions [20]. Usually the rate of dry pre- cipitation is determined from the measured concentration and the flux of admixture at some altitude (in the atmosphere about 1 m above the un- derlying surface). In principle, at ti~is attitude it would also be pos- - sible to stipulate boundary condition (1), but in a number of cases it is desirable to relate it to some universal height, for example, to the roughness level z~, where a boundary condition is also set for wind vel- ocity. Then, using (1)-(5), we obtain a correlation between zg v and V(z) _ 1~ (zo) = v = ~ (~1 1- ~ ~s~ ln (z;ro) ~ ~6) _ x u~, " / ~.u;~l (7) za=roexp~- v~ 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY We note that under the total reflection condition (v ~ 0) we ha~~p z~ 0, whereas with complete absorption (v ~ oo) the zg value tende to z0, which ' also determines the range of its possible values. We must emphasize again that in the problem of diffusion of an admixture - the formulation of the boundary condition (1) with z= z0 is no more than a convenient mathemdtical procedure ensuring a single boundary for problems of diffusion and dynamics. The q(zp) value figuring in (1) does not coin- cide with the real concentration at the leve' z~ because expression (3) is - not applicable in the immediate neighborhood of the underlying surface. In particular, one must not identify q(z~) with the mean concentration at the earth's surface qs, which within the framework of the considered for- mulation does not enter into the problem at all. In this respect this ap- proach differs from [7, 12], where the concept of near-wall resistance and diffusion roughness is introduced for different scalars, taking into ac- count the difference between the concentrations at the level z and at the underlying surface. Naturally, the zg values determined using (4)-(7) coincide with those in- troduced in [12], but with qs = 0. However, expressions (1)-(7) can be employed, uaing only experimental data on the flux and concentration at some level z within the effective limits of the logarithmic law. Using - the V(z) value it is easy to determine the boundary condition parameter v. The relationship between V(z) with different z for w~ 0 is given in [14], and between V(z) and v-- in [4]. Taking into account everything said above, we note that study [18] in our opinion is methodologically incorrect. Its authors, introducing a laminar sublayer and determining the concentration jump using the empirical for- mula �or temperature, attempted to correct the v vaiues determined in [4] on the basis of experimental data in the atmosphere. The negative values of this parameter obtained in [18] are attributed not to the "in- accuracy in experimental data," but to the inadmissibility of such use of them. The authors of [I1] allowed the opposite error, specifically, they attempted to find a coefficient characterizing the entrapment of the admixture in the laminar sublayer, correcting measurement data for - the concentration and fluxes only in the turbulent layer. Now we will discuss in greater detail the problems involved in precipita- tion of an aerosol admixture onto the underlying surface. It follows from general considerations that L-or very heavy particles the flux is determin- ed entirely by the rate of gravitational settling (v = w). This is also confirmed by experimental data [2]. For a weightless admixture (w = 0) it is desirable to assume v= bu,~, where b is a d.imensionless coefficient, which, speaking in general, can also be dependent on u*. In a general case the v value is determined as some function of w and u*. As noted in the review [19], the precipitation r~f particles is determined for the most part by the properties of the flow near the wall; in this case a very im- portant role is played by turbulent fluctuations, which penetrate into 17 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ the laminar sublayer. Therefore, for describing the precipitation of par- ticles it is necessary to have a more detailed knowledge of the near-wall region than for comFuting the transport of momentum. In the case of very small particles it is neceaeary to take Brownian diffusion into account, and in the case of larger particlea their inertia. The influence of wall roughn~sa is extremely great, although it is known poorly; both the z~ values and the form of the elements are important. The principal results of the theoretical studies used in [19] relate to - smooth walls and the experiments were carried out in wind tunnels. The authors of [19] for a smooth wall recommend the e~cpression b - = AS~, * where for spherical particles $,r=0,~5(rtvdlZ p, ~9) ~ 1 (d is particle diameter, o'and f~ are the densities of matter in particles - and air density, 'v is the kinematic viscosity of the air). Expressions (8)-(9) can be used with z~u*/y< 0.13, 0.3 < S,~< 8. In the atmosphere the first of these conditions is satisfied only for such surfaces as ice, _ snow and calm water when there is a weak wind. The numerical coeff icient A in different theoretical evaluations varies from 1.7�10-4 to 6.7~10-4; in . experiments it was found that 4.7�10-4. There are almoat no such recommendations in~the literature for rough sur- faces. For example, the model of precipitation of particles onto the rough walls of pipes formulated in [11] ia not generalized directly for an at- mospheric flow around a surface since it is suitable only for intermediate Reynolds numbers. The mode'_ computations of the v value cited in [11] re- veal the presence of a minimum in the region of a diameter of particles of about several micrometers and its gradual smoothing with an increase in roughness, its considerable dependence on roughness an increase with an increase in z0 for all sizes of particles, most conspicuous in the range of their radii from 10-1 to 5 � m. The attempt at constructing a model for the precipitation of particles in the vegetation layer in the case of a real atmosphere [6] cannot be considered completed. , The results of experimental determination of the V(z) and v values under different conditions for particles of different sizes with different chem- ical properties can be found in [2, 14, 20], and for gases and aerosols under natural conditions also in [15-17, 21J. All the experimental data - exhibit a great scatter, associated both with the fundamental difficulties in measuring the sought-for values and with uncontrollable factors, of which there are a particularly great number in natural experiments. As follows from [2, 4], for many surfaces which do not very greatly inter- cept particles, v exceeds the measured V(z) values by not more than 30-40%. 18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY For strongly intercepting surfaces, such as moist grass, fabric, artificial grass, the v value can exceed V(z) by an order of magnitude or more. In a number of cases, with finite V(z) values it becomes virtually infinitely large; in other words, these surfaces completely absorb the tiny particles - falling on them. The most complete experimental results of determination of V(z), both un- _ der field conditions and in a wind tunnel, are given in [14]. The depen- dence of the V(z) value obtained here, virtually coinciding in this case with v, on particle size d shows that in the range of diameters greater than 10 � m with suff icient accuracy it can be assumed that v= bu,t + w; b is virtually not dependent on d and u*. With a decrease in d to l� m the b value decreases by more than an order of magnitude; in the region d N 1 �m there is a minimum, after which with a further decrease in particle . diameter b increases as a result af Brownian diffusion (the dependence qualitatively coincides with [11]). 4o Hu.~4 �P H/Q Qo - 10Z Q) Po 1' 2 3 - 10y . - \ _ \ 10s 1 ~ Z ~.S ~ 4. 1;~ Xo/H ~!0 ' b) ~ ~ ~i ~30 ~ \ ~ ~ 3 ZO Z ~ S \ ~ 10 7 6 D ' ' J l0"~` 10"s 10"2 10'~ 10� 10~ lOZ 10~ d Fig. 1. Dimensionless maximum concentrations and flux of admixture distance of the concentration maximum to proj ection of the source (b))innd _ dependence on b= v/u,~. 1-4) under condition (3), H/zp = 100, 500, 1000, 5000 respectively, 5) with U and K not dependent on z; 6) total range of � experimental values b; 7) same for grass 19 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY We will note the general properties of the V(z), v and b parameters which make it possible to be oriented in the ranges of their valuea cited in [2, 4, 14-17, 20, 21]. In the case of a horizontally uniform - surface they are not dependent on the diatance to the source. Under or- dinary conditions the b value can be coneidered nondependent on wind _ velocity, so that v in actuality is linearly related to u*; but when there is a considerable wind and a dry surface there is a tendency to a decrease in b with an increase in u,~, evidently in connection with the process of deflation of particles from surface elements~ In this proce$s partieles less than 20 � m in diameter lie within the viscoue aublayer and are deflated to a lesaer degree. All other conditiona being equal, the v and V(z) ;-alues are always greater for chemically active particles than for inactive particles, for a surface covered by vegetation, than , for a bare surface, for a moist surface than for a dry surface, with an unstable stratification than with a stable stratification. For all - the investigated surfaces v> w, although it is possible to visualize a very smooth surface near which the heavy particles are accumulated, but are not entrapped by it (see [22]). In general, the minimum V(z) values, according to data in the literature, i are 0.02-0.03 cm/sec for particles with a diameter less than 1-2 � m and 0.1-0.2 m/aec for particles with a diameter more t:zan 2 � m(under condi- Cions of a weak wind, stability, slightly and moderately entrapping sur- face). The maximum V(z) values with w< 2 cm/sec are 30-36 cm/sec (artif- icial grass, moist canvas). For natural grass and soil in nature we give the V(z) values from 0.2 to 8 cm/sec, in dependence on zp, u and stabil- - ity. The ratio of the V(z) values for moist and dry surfaces is 1.1-2.8. ~ - The range of the value B(z) _[V(z) - w]/u* is somewhat narrower. For natural dry grass and particles greater than 5 �m in diameter it is, for example, from 0.01 to 0.08. The minimum v and b values coincide with the - minimum V(z) and B(z) values, but in the dire.ction of maximum values the range of v and b values widens virtually without limit. The influence of dYy p~acipitation on the field of concentration of an admixture in the atmosphere in the case of its modeling by the boundary condition (1) is examined in [3, 8, 10, 22). For this use is made of solutions of equation (2) with a linear source of the intensity Q at the level H. Source [3J analyzes the expression for thz concentration - and flux obtained in [10] with the parameters K and U not dependent on z. It was shown that in the case v= 0, w~ 0 the concentration at the earth's surface with x-~c~o tends to some constant value, which is asso- ciated with the accumulation of particles precipitating from the atmo- sphere near a complEtely reflecting discontinuity. However small v may be, the admizture is expelled from the atmosphere and such accumulation ` does not occur. Sources [8, 22] gfve the results of numerical solution of equation (2) with a logarithmic wind profile and with stipulation of K in accord.lnce with (3); the boundary conditior~ is set at the level z= z0. The cases v= 0 and v= w are considered in [22]. It was found that with H~ 0 and v= 0 particle~ are accumulated near the boundary, but 20 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240070043-5 r'OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY only under the condition w] xu,~. With some combinations of parameters the surface concentration increases monotonically with an increase in . x, completely n~t having a maximum. Source [8] gives some special results of r_omputations with w= 0 and var- iation of the v parameter Cn a broad range. Using theae, and also a num- ber of additional results ~f computations, we will examine the dependence of the characterist{.cs of the field of concentration of the admixture near the underlying surfac.e on the boundary condition parameter v. Fig- ure 1 gives the values of the normalized maximum (subscript 0) concentra- tions and the coordinates of the concentration maximum as a function of b= v/u* and H/zp. Here we have also plotted the full range of experi- mentally determined values b and the range of values of this parameter for natural grass. As mi~ht be expected, in the case of small b the con- centrations, and in the case of gr�eat b-- the flux are virtually not de- pendent on b. The mentioned limiting cases correspond to substantially diiferent patterns of formation of the maximum surface concentration and the maximum flux. With an increase in entrapment the maximum flf the surface concentration is displaced toward the source. r; Q ~ ~ � ~ ~ / \ 2 / \ ;J� ~ ~ _ - / \ _ / \ , ' \ J \ i ~ 1C' / \ 1 / \ _ / \ ~ \ / ~ ? cm/sec ~a 9 ~ ~ ~ 10 " 101 JO� ' f01 Vc.^r'cr,r Fig. 2. Vertical flux of matter onto underlying surface in dependence on - v at different distances. 1) 300 m; 2,) 1000 m and 3) 10 000 m; 1' and 2' same as 1 and 2 for a model with constant U and K. We note that the right-hand sides of the curves (b.> 5), in contrasr to the left-hand sides, being constructed in nonnormalized coordinates, merge for different u,~. The similar dependences for a model of diffusion with a wind velocity and turbulent diffusion coefficient (here b= vH/K) - constant with height, plotted in Fig. 1, show that qualitatively the - dependence of PQ, q~ and :c~ on b remains the same with changeover to - another model. However, x~ with constant K and U, is dependent on b more strongly, which in this case is associated with the absence of a layer poorly conducting the admir.ture. 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY It is of interest to study the behavior of the concentration, and in particular, the flux of the admixture onto the underlying surface far from the source. With v= 0 it is absent, but however small v may be, it ia greater than zero, and accordingly there can be an accumulation of - admixture matter on the eoil. Figure 2 givea the resulte of numerical c4mputation of the value P= vq with z~ zp, H/z0 = 100, u* ~~.2 m/sec and different x values in dependence on the v value. It is intereating that at any distance the flux behaves the same as at the point with the maximum value: in the case of amall v it increases linearly with an in- crease in v, whereas with large v it tends to a constant value and ceases to be dependent on v. This is attributable to the fact that with small v - precipitation onto the surface is limited specifically by this parameter, _ whereas in `'�~e case of 1;arge v-- by that limiting conductivi*_y which can be en~ured by a surface layer with small values of the coefficient - of turbulent diffusion. As indicated by Eig. 2, in a case wh~n K and U _ are stipulated as not dependent on z, with small v the dependence of the P parameter on it is the same, although with a change in x the drop- off occurs considerably more rapidly. However, in the case of large v the flux at near distances is not limited and therefore at great dis- tances (x~ x~) it decreases with an incre.sse in v as 1/v. In this sense the result in [SJ, relating to the role of entrapment of an admixture ~ by the underlying surface at great distances, obtained when using a model with a turbulent diffusion coefficient not dependent on z, is possibly ; in need of correction. i _ , ~ - i ! _ 22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Bakulin, V. N., "Theoretical Analyeis ~f the Reasona for Poasible _ Errors in Experimental Det~rmination of the Rate of Dry Precipita- tion of Aerosols," METEOROLOGICHESKIYE ASPEKTY RADIATSIONNOGO ZAGRYA- ZNENIYA ATMOSFERY. TRUDY MEZI~IDUNARODNOGO SIMPOZIUMA V G. TBILISI (Meteorological Aspects of Radiatioa Contamination of the Atmoephere. Transactions of the International Sympoeium at Tbiliai)(15-20 October 1973), Leningrad, 1976. 2. Byzova, N. L., RASSEYANIYE PRIl~iESI V POGRANICHNOM SLOYE ATMOSFERY (Scattering of an Admixture in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer), Gidro- meteoizdat, 1974. 3. Byzova, N. L., Kutsenogiy, K. P., "Influence of Structure of the Sur- _ face Atmospheric Layer and Boundary Conditions on the Dose Value and . Density of Deposita," TRUDY IEM (Transactions of the Institute of Ex- perimental Meteorology), Na 15(60), 1976. - 4. Byzova, N. L., Makhon'ko, K. P., "Interaction Between an Aerosol and - the L'nderlying Surface," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA (News ~ of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean), Vol 4, No 9, 1968. 5. Vel'tishcheva, N. S., "Numerical Solution of the Turbulent Diffusion Equation in the Variable Wind Field," METEOROLOGICHESKIYE ASPEKTY RADIATSIONNOGO ZAGRYAZNENIYA ATMOSFERY. TRUDY MEZFIDUNARODNOGO SIMPOZ- - IUMA V TBILISI, 15-20 OKTYABRYA 1973, Leningrad, 1976. - 6. Dunskiy, V. F., "Inertial Mechanism of Precipitation of a Coarsely Disperae Aerosol on the Earth's Vegetation Cover," DOKLADY AN SSSR - (Reporta of the USSR Academy of Sciences), Vol 159, No 6, 1964. 7. Zilitinkevich, S. S., DINAMIKA POGRANICHNOGO SLOYA ATMOSFERY (Dynamics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1973. 8. Krotova, I. A., Natanzon, G. A., "Influence of the Underlying Surface on the Propagation of a Weightless Admixture in the Atmospheric Sur- ~ face Layer," TRUDY IEM, No 21(80), 1978. 9. Monin, A. S., "Atmospheric Diffusion," USPEKHI FIZICHESKIKH NAUK (Ad- vances in the Physical Sciences), 67, No 1, 1969. 10. Monin, A. S., "The Boundary Con~dition at the Earth's Surface for a Dif- fusing Admixture," ATMOSFERNAYA DIFFUZIYA I ZAGRYAZNENIYE VOZDUKHA (Atmospheric Diffusion and Air Contamination), tranalated from English, Moscow, IL, 1962. 23 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 11. Brown, L. W., "Deposition of Particles on Rough Surfacea During Tur- bulent Gas-Flow in a Pipe," ATMOS. ENVIRON., Vol 8, No 8, 1974. 12. Bruteaert, W., "The Roughneas Length for Water Vapour, Sensible Heat and Other Scalars," Jo ATMOS. SCI., Vol 32, No 10, 1975. 13. Calder, K. L., "Atmospheric Diffusion of Particulate Material, Con- aidered as a Boundary Value Problem," J. METEOROL., Vol 78, No 3, 1961. ~ - 1- 14. Chamberlain, A. C., "Transport of Lycop~dium Spores and Other Par- ticles to ltough Surfaces," PROC. ROY. SOC., A, Vol 296, No 1444, 1967. 15. Garland, J. A., Atkins, D. H. F., Readings, C. J., Caughey, 5. J., "Deposit~.on of Gaseous Sulphur Dioxide to the Ground," ATMOS. ENVIRON., _ Vol 8, No 1, 1974. , 16. Dropps, J. G., "Field Measurements of Dry Removal Rates of Air Pol- . lutants Over Vegetati~n Surfaces," ATMOSPHERE, Vol 15, No 140 (abatr.) 1977. 17. Garland, J. A., "The Dry Deposition of Sulphur Dioxide to Land and Water Surfaces," PROC. ROY. SOC., London, A. 354, No 1678, 1977. 18. Jordanov, D. L., D3olov, J. D., "On the Interaction of Diffusing Ad- . mixture With Earth Surface," DOKLADY BOLGARSKOY AN (Reports of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences), 29, No 6, 1976. 19. Kneen, T., Strauas, W., "Deposition of Dust from ~rbulent Gas Streams," ATMOS. ENVIRON., Vol 3, No 1, 1969. 20. METEOROLOGY AND ATOMIC ENERGY, 1968. U. S. Atomic Energy Commission. Division of Technical Information. Translated: METEOROLOGIYA I ATOM- ~ NAYA ENERGIYA, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1971. ~ 21. Owers, M. J., Powell, A. W., "Deposition Velocity of Sulphur Dioxide on Land and Wa.'ter Surfaces Using a 35 S Tracer Method," A1'MOS. ENVIR- . oN., Vol 8, N~ 1, 1974. 22. Shreffler, I. H., "Numerical Experimentation With Particles Having Non-zero Terminal Velocity in the Atmospheric Surface Layer," BOUN- DARY-LAYER METEOROL., Vol 9, No 2, 1975. 24 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . UDC 551.510.42 PREDICTION OF AIR CONTAMINATION OVER THE APSHFRON PENINSULA Moacow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 2, Feb 80 pp 21-26 [Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences A. A. Gorchi- yev and R. M. Rafiyev, Institute of ~pace Investigations of Natural Re- sources Academy of Sciences Azerbaydzhan Academy of Sciences, submitted for publication 11 June 1979] Abstract: The author proposes a method for the ahort-range forecasting of the mean concentra- tion of S02 and N02 by means of the method of expansion of variables in natural orthogonal functions. In contrast to other studies, here - it is proposed that use be made of the coef- ficients of expansion of the fielde of concen- tration of S02 and N02, wind velocity and the vertical temperature profile as pr~dictors. The probability of success of such a prediction for S02 and N02 is 58.2~ and 60.4X respectively. - _ [Text] At the present time a short-range forecast of air contamination for several days in advance is of practical interest. Interest in short-range forecasting can be attributed to the fact that in many cities and indus- trial centers the di~charge of harmful substances into the atmosphere and their concentration in the air are very high. However, it is not always possible to move large aources of air contamination far beyond the limite of a city. The need therefore arises of lesaening the discharge into the atmosphere during periods of time when unfavorable meteorological condi- tions arise and a high level of air contamination can be created in resi- dential areas as well. The prediction of contamination of the air basin - on the basis of data on meteoxological conditions makes possible the timely adoption of ineasures for the purpose of preventing negative con- sequences, or at least, limitation of their scales. For example, in the - case of prediction of a dangerous concentration, exceeding the sanitary- hygienic norme, it is possible to shift to the use of a different kind of fuel (from mazu't to gass etc.).or temporarily shut down functioning appar- atus. 25 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY The problem of the influence of ineteorological conditions on the concentra- tion of harmful admixtures in the atmosphere has been examined both in theoretical investigations [3, 4] and in studies of analysis of actual ob- servational data [2, 7]. The authore of thie article have devoted their main attention to the depen- dence betwPen weather conditions and air contamination in general over a _ major city, Baku. For this purpoae we use the firat coefficients of expan- aion in natural orthogonal functions (NOF) of the fields of concentrations of S02 and N02, as was first done in [5]. Taking into acco~tnt the meteorological characteristics of the Apsheron Pen- insula, as predictors we included individual meteorological elements which in the ma~ority of cases are characteristic for a stable state of the atmo- aphere in the presence of temperature inversions. It follows from [6] that the Apsheron Peninsula is characterized by high frequencies of recurrence " of temperature inversions, which in the lower kilometer layer of the atmo- sphere constitute almost 75y per year. It is also important to take the nature of the wind regime into aceount. The mean annual wind velocity here, according to long-term data, is 6.3 m/sec, wherezs the number of days with a wind velocity greater than 15 m/sec averages 67 per year. For tl:e analysis and prediction of the degree of air contamination as the initial information we used five-year data for the su~er season (1971-1975) on the concentration of harmful admixturea (S02 and NOZ) at 17 observation points in Baku and also air temperature data from aerological stations at - ten standard levela ~0.03; 0.20; 0.33; 0.50; 0.63; 0.75; 0.93; 1.00; 1.50 and 2.00 km) over the Apsheron Peninsula and wind velocity data for nine ~ stations situated around Baku (Astara, Baku, Mashtagi, Neftechala, Neft- yanyye Kamni, Artem Island, Zhiloy Island, Svinoy Island and Sumgait). In contrast to [5], in preaicting air contamination we did not use the meteorological elements themselves, but their coefficients of expansion in NOF, vertical temperature profiles and wind velocity fields. It must be noted that the rate of convergence of the expansion for tempera- ture is considerably greater than for the SOZ and N02 concentrations. Thus, in the mentioned season the first term Qf the SOZ concentration expansion describes 55-63X, the first two terms 65-70% of the total variability, = and N02 37-40~ and 53-55% respectively. For the vertical temperature - profile the first term of tt~e expaneion describes 92Y and the first two terms 979~ of the total variability. The first eigenvector usually well describes the main vertical variation of temperature deviations from the mean profile, which corresponds to a definite character of the interlevel _ co~relation between the temperature variations at the ground and its varia- tiona at higher-lying levels. The second vector describes the variation of the additional correction to the temperature variations caused by the in- fluence of the underlying surface. ~ 26 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table 1 Correlation Coefficient Ri Between q and Coefficients of Expansion in NOF a, I as I aa ai I a'r I aj ( a2 I /r~ , 9so~ 0,96 0,11 0,05 -0,17 -0,03 -O,19 0,03 1,00 ~N o~ 0,98 0,06 0,04 -0, l 1 -0~01 -0,19 0,02 1,00 For wind velocity the first term of the expansion describP~ 59%, and the first two terms 75y of the tntal dispersion; the first E~DF character- izes the principal characterist,.cs of the spatial behavior of the wind velocity field, its aimultaneous changes in general over the Apsheron Pen- inaula. The question as to how many coefficienta of the expansion of each epecific = field must be included in the forecast is extrem~ly important becauae with the dropping of a part of the NOF there is a decrease in the accuracy of Yepreaentation of the initial fields. In selecting the number of NOF, from the set of which the archives of propoaed predictors is formed (that is, _ the test predictors), it is necessary to be guided first and foremost by the epatial scale of the considered fields; in each specific case for this purpose we analyzed the form of the isolinea of the NOF and the behavior of - _ the differences of the eigenvalues coxreaponding to them [8]. For the pur- pose of predicting the mean concentration of S02 and N02 for the firat and _ second halves of the day for two days in advance in the set of test-predic- tors we included the three coefficients of expansion of the concentration fields �1, ~2 �tg and also the coefficients of expansion of the temper- ature fields oc L, o[ 2 and wind velocity oC i, ~ 2 in NOF. The teat-predictors (al, ~'2, a3), (�~1' �C T2) and (ai, �G 2), representing the coefficients of expansion of different elements, can be related to one another and are not orthogonal. The latter circumstance required the use of orthogonalization of predictors. A new orthogonal system of predictors was obtained by the maximum pro~ections method [1]. In subsequent stages of prediction the test-predictors were sub~ected to further analysis and re~ection of unsuccessful predictors. For this purpoae we computed the correlation coefficients Ri between the S02 and N02 concentrations and the i-th expansion coefficients. 1'he results of the computations are given in Table 1, where R2 Ri is the square of the multiple eorrelation coef- - ficient. In accordance with the table we carried out a so-called "revision" of all the predictors. As a result, the predictors ~ 3, ~ T2 and aC~2 were diacard- _ ed. Thus, for predicting the mean concentration of 502 and ft02 for the city 27 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY as a whole as the predictors we include two coefficients of expansion in NOF one coefficient each for expansion of the vertical temperature profile and the wind velocity field. The first group of predictors (~1, OC2) takes into account the influence of inertial factors, the second - (ocT) and third (oC groups in turn take into account the conditions forlvertical and horizontal ditfusion of harmful admixtures. In combina- tion these parameters determine the state of local and general circula- tion procesaea, on which, for the most part, is dependent the distribu- ticn of harmful admixtLres in the atmosphere. The principal contribution to the eneral level of atmospheric contamination is from ~1 and in - part a~ and Ot~l. The correlation between the mean concentration of S02 and N02, atma~nFieric stratification (ali) and wind velocity (oLi) is neg- ative (0.17; -0.11 and -0.19; -0.19). Rlr~ Ql 0, B 1 0, 4 1~~ ~ ?v~~ ~ - ` yc� ~ ~,l~~ 0,0 _ ' ~ ~ 1 ~ 6) 0, B U4 ~v � 1 Zd ~ , ~ hours 0 9 B >Z 16 74v Fig. 1. Autocorrelation fur~.:.tions of first (1), second (2) and third (3) coefficients of expansion of the fields of concentration of S02 (a) and N02 (b). It is known that the first coefficient of expansion of the concentration of harmf.ul admixtures (ocl) characterizes the level of general contamina- tion of the atmosphere in a city and is more closely related to the meteorological situation [5]. The scheme makes use of the oCl values ob- tained using data from measurements made two days prior to the time for _ which the forecast is made. The degree of coherence of the series of con- centrations w3s evaluated using correlation functions computed using the formula _ 1. .N_s . 1V T~ at a?~-T - ai - R 1Z) = nr_s t_1 N-: ~1r ~ ~1~ ~ 1 j' 2 -2 I ~ 2 -2 N-t ~r a~ -at N-T aj+~ -a2 - l-1 1=1 Z8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY where ocl and n~ are the mean values of the firat N-Z and last N- t terms in the aeries re~pectively; ~G is the lag (time shift), 'G m 2, 4, 6,... da~?e. Theee correlation functione describe large-ecale meteorological diaturbancea. Figure 1 ahows the time correlation function of the parameters ~1, and o~3 during the mentioned period of the summer season for sulfur gas and N02, computed on a"BESM-6" electronic computer. It followa from an analyeis of variation of the functions R dl (-G R oc2 ( t) and Ra 3('G) for S02 and NOZ that the most prolonged correlations are obtained for the first expansion coefficient; for the aubsequent coefficients, as a rule, the time correlation radius decreases. Figure la shows that in the city for al of aulfur gas a high correlation Ro[1(ti) ~ 0.5 is retained to the interval 'G = 6 days, and for N02 to 'C = 4 days (Fig. lb). Such a var- iation of R a 1(-~) is evidently attributable to the presence of a stable - "contamination cap" over the city. After two days the correlation coef- - f icient for S02 and N02 is 0.67 and 0.54 respectively. On the basis of these investigations it can be assumed that this information on the state of the air basin over a city is adequate for the prediction of atmospheric - contamination. - The initial data for the element to be predicted for the forecasting sta- _ tion were the deviations of the mean concentration from the sample mean separately for each of 17 observation points. The problem involved a de- termination of the predicted values p qii for two days in advance (anom- - aliea of the mean concentration for the i-th day for point with the uae of four orthogonal expansion coefficients. For this purpose we used the multiple regression method. The anticipated value 4 q~~ i+2 for two days in advance in this case was determined using the regression coef- - ficient ~ - ~ ~ - _ z 0 q~, r+~ = bja~ r-}- c~a~ ~ Q~~GCnj. ~2) n-1 J The weighting coefficients an~, b3 and c~ were computed by the least - squares method, that is, in such a way as to satisfy the cond~tion M - - 2 ~ ~ 91, r+'= - bl ai C~ al 1-}- ~ a�~ a�i = m i n. ( g) t-l n=1 The finding of the coefficients an~, b and c~ is~considerably simplified _ if we take into account the property o~ the orthogonality of the expan- - sion coefficients. - - _ rxk!'Qf!'=~~ ~1~~~ _ J ~(F ~ where ~ ki and correspond to ~n~ ,�C li and OC ii' Differentiating equation (3) for an~, b~ and c~ and equating it to zero, - we obtain a system of normal equations which is solved relative to the , weighting coefficients. As a result of condition (4) the coefficients ~ 29 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY an~, b~ and c~ are found from the expressions _ 1. 2. an/ y Q~, i-{-4 ani~ n-~~ �nl 1 1 ~ (5) b~ lai i~' Q~. i+a ai i _ i ~ ~l a~~a~ ~z Ql, r+~ ai i. - ! In order to check the possibilities of the resulting forecasting schemes we conatructed a series of maps on the basis of a priori material. An evaluation of the success of the forecaat of the mean concentration for - the city in the first and second halves of the day was made separately for the three groups. For sulfur gas: low (0.00-0.15), increased (0.16- - 0.29) and high 0.30), an3 for N02 the corresponding figures were: low (0.00-0.040), increased (0.041-0.084) and high (~j 0.085). The results of this checking are given in Table 2, from which it follows that according to a priori data the total probable success for S02 is 58.2%, and for N02 60.4X. Table 2 Probable Succesa of Forecasts Using A Priori Material, in % KonHVecreo IlporxosxpyeMag nporeo3oe 3 Onpasaw� 17pKMecb rpynna eaes:ocrb xcn~rax- onpae- _ 1 2 xdx q AaHxwx 6 SO' floxxxceitxaR 7 3 2 66,7 TioB~tmeeFtaA g 76 43 36,6 BdcaxaR 9 12 8 66,? 06u~ee lQ 9l 53 58,2 NOz iloxxxceaxaA 3 2 66,7 [los~wexxaA 75 44 58,7 B~coxaa 13 9 69,2 06ntee 91 55 60,4 KEY: 1. Admixture 7. Low 2. Predicted group 8. Increased 3. Number of forecasts 9. High 4. Tested 10. Total = 5. Successful 6. Success . 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 , . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY In order to take sanitizing and prophylactic measures the "high" category is af the greatest interest. The probable success of this group for SOZ ia 66.7%, and for N02 69.2~. If one also takes into account the number of forecasts not falling into the predicted group, but close to it, the probable success for S02 ie in- creased to 81.8X and for NO2 to 86.5~. The probable success of the fore- casts was evaluated using the index n+ + 0,5 nn,s Q= N . where ~ is the number of cases in which the actusl and predicted values of the concentration fell in one group, n~ 5 is the number of cases in which the predicted and actual concentrations~fell into ad3acent groups, N is the number of tests. In conclusion it must be noted that the considered schemes are now being used in routine work. The authors express deep appreciation to M. Ye. Berlyand and Ye. L. (;en- ikhovich for a number of valuable proposals and comments, used in these investigations. BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Bagrov, N. A., "Orthogonalization of Random Values," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 4., 1976. 2. Bezuglaya, E. Yu., "Determination of Air Contamination Potential," TRUDY GGO (Transactions o~ the Main Geophysical ObsErvatory), No 234, - 1968. 3. Berlyand, M. Ye., et al., "Numerical Investigation of Atmospheric Diffusion Under Normal and Anomalous Conditions," TRUDY GGO, No 158, - 1964. 4. Berlyand, M. Ye., "Dangerous Conditions for Atmospheric Contamination by Industrial Effluent," TRUDY GGO, No 185, 1966. 5. Vavilov, N. G., Genikhovich, Ye. L., Son'kin, L. R., "Statietical An- alysis of Data on Air Contamination in Cities Uaing Natural Functions," TRUDY GGO, No 238, 1969. 6. Vdovin, B. I., Gorchiyev; A. A., "Typical Temperature Profiles in the Lower Kilometer Layer of the Atmosphere Over the Apsheron Peninsula," TRUDY GGO, No 238, 1969. 7. Son'kin, L. R., Razbegayeva, Ye. A., Terekhova, K. M., "On the Problem of the Meteorological Causes of Air Contamination Over Cities," TRUDY GGO, No 185, 1966. 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 8. Yudin, M. I., Meshcherskaya, A. V., "Some Evaluations of Natural Com- ponents as Predictora and Predictants," TRUDY GGO, No 273, 1972. ~ ; i ; ; 32 ! ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - ~ ' ! APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UDC 551.577.13 INFLUENCE OF DIRECTION OF TRANSPORT OF AIR MASSES ON THE CONTENT OF ORGANIC MICROADMIXTURES IN PRECIPITATION ~ Moecow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in~Russian No 2, Feb 80 pp 27-31 [Article by L. A. Volokitina and V. S. Shuklin, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, submitted for publication 24 April 1979] Abstract: The suthors determined the concentra- tions of organic carbon in a number of precipi- tation samples. The influence of the direction of transport of air masses on the content of or- anic microadmixtures in precipitation in the cen- tral part of the European USSR is examined. [Text] In order to understand the physicochemical procesaes transpiring in the atmoephere it ia necessary to know the chemical composition of aerosols. One of the principal ways in which serosol reaches the earth's - surface ia precipitation, with which more than 50X of all aerosol matter falls out [2] and the chemical composition of whose admixtures, accord- inglq, characterizes the aerosol in a particular air masa. Inorganic ad- - mixtures in prec~ipitation have been invest3gated relatfvely extensively [lOJ. It has been established that their concentration ia in the limits 1-100 mg/liter. Organic admixtures in precipitation have been determined sporadically [7, 9], which is due to the diversity of the admixture types and the complexity of the chemical methods for analysis of organic com- pounds. However, organic admixtnres constitute a considerablP fraction of the total contamination of precipitation. The concentrations of organic aubstances in precipitation are close to those in the surface waters of the land [9]. Therefore, the data characterizing organic admixtures in precipitation are also of interest in a study of problems in geochemistry and hydrochemistry (chemical weathering processes, balance of organic substances for water bodies, formation of chemical compcsition of surface waters). It should be noted that for an anthrbpogenic aerosol it is possible to ex- - pect a relatively great quantity of organie substancea since man uses _ mostly organic substances as food products, raw material and fuel. 33 FOR OFFICIAL U~E ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - This makes it possible to hope that an inveatigation of the relationship between the contamination of precipitation by organic admixtures and the tranaport of air masses will help to evaluate, on a regional scale, the influence of different sourcea of anthropogenic ~ontaminations. For this purpose in this study we have determined the concentration of organic ad- mixtures in precipitation, taking into account the direction of transport of air masses to the point where precipitation samples are taken. The water in precipitation contains a number of organic compounda: hydro- carbons, alcohols, ethers, acids, etc., most of which have a photolumin- escent capacity. However, at roon temperature (T 300 K) the luminescence spectra of these - compounds ovarlap, which make virtually impossible the photoluminescent determination of individual compounds in such a mixture. In this case with a constancy of the component makeup of admixtures it is possible to determine the total quantity of organic admixtures in solution. Investigation of the photoluminescent characteristics of precipitation water has shown that the luminescence spectra of precipitation of dif- ferent aggregate state (water and snow) differ little from one another and change insignificantly from season to season [6], which confirms data on the relatively constant (from the point of view of the content - of the principal groups of organic compounds) composition of the organic component of atmoapheric aerosol [11J. This, in turn, makes it possible to use the intensity of luminescence for determining the total concen- tration of organic admixtures in precipitation. For this purpose in this _ atudy we have found the relationship between the level of luminescence of grecipitation and the concentration of organic carbon in it, the frac- tion of which in precipitation water accounts for approximat~ly half of all the organic matter [7]. ~ ~ c,~ Hr/n ~org ~?S/liter ~ ~s R . . - ~o . x x s x ; x . x x xx x a2 q~ 4s E Fig. 1. Dependence of concentration of organic carbon in precipitation water on its luminescence level. _ 34 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY = Table 1 Concentration of Organic Admixtures Corg in Precipitation and Meteorological Parameters on Days of Collection of Samples at Obninsk in 1976 Clpeo6na- g~ C A810LL(HA Hanpa~neuNe ne,pe� I~lara ocaAKOe �P~ aere~n ttoca Ha eacore pa~ox~c sdHOCa ~opua 1 2 ~z/n 3_3~ ~ ~~5 ~ 5 eosAynrH6g ~acca o6na~ e 27 T cHer 8 8,0 IO[~B aana~~ioe 12 Ceee~xoe Hope ?p 5t 29 I ro ;iceg 6.4 10 aana;yti~oc ~,eBCqmoe Mope ' Frr.b, A6 30 I s 8,0 I03 roHC}~oe 13 Cpe,~xaeHxoe Hop~ St 2 II s 8,0 IOI03 ceaepo-aocrowxoe ceeep 3artaaHOti St 2IYI s 14,0 Ip3 _ 14 Cx6~?px 22 - ' 4 Ijj s 28,0 IOI03 a~cxoe 13 ~Iepxoe etope 23 As 5III a 12,8 IOI03 socro~HOe Cb 17 III ,a0?KAL 21,6 }p ~o~cHae 15 24 3arta~Haa CFt6Npb Frnb, Ns 13 ~tepHOe Mope Sc, Cb 5 IV cxer 3,2 3I03 ceeepo-aanaANce � Ceeept?aA Arnat~- Sc 13 v AOxtAb], . 22,4 g 16 rxxa 25 ~oxct~oe 13 ~Iepr~oe Mope Cb, Sc 18 V ro ;~ce 4,8 IU3 aana~xoe Ceaepxoe Mope Cu 19 V } 3,? C3 ceeepxoe Cxaxu~sct~ani~A Cb 7 VI , 3,g 3 w~110e 13 ~Iepxoe ntope Cu IO aartafutroe Cesepuoe Mope Cu, Ac ]6 VI a 4.0 BCB satta~~HOe Ceeept+oe Mope Cu, Ac ~ ~ ~ I ~ 5,2 CB ?aaa ~atoe Ceeepxoe Mope Cu 4 VIII x 8,0 IOIOB - .'1s, Cu 6 VIII ~ 3,6 IOB sana.qa~oe CenopHOe Mope ~ Cb, Cu 5 X ~ 6,8 CC3 ~o;xxoe Cpeli~iaeHHOe Hope Sc 12 X cxer $ 3,6 F03 ;^eBCpt~oe 17 JleAOet?r~ti oxeak As, Frnb 1 XI AoxcAb 12,8 CC3 3ana,~HOe ~i� 6ann~kcxoe ~tope Sc, Frnb 30 XI ro x:c 12,0 CC3],g toro�3ana,tHCe 28 3a,naAxas Ee~pona Sc, Cb . 9 XII c~?er l;,2 CBl ~oru-DOCro~rt~oc 29 MaaaR Aa~~R Cb 13 XII ro :fce 8,0 3103 bxcxc+e Cp0AN3eMNOC S10pe Ae(Cu) 14 XII s 4,0 3I03 ax:.xoe CpHAx3eKxoe Hopc Ac(Cu) _ i7 XII r 10,0 3f03 aHCa~oe CjJtJ(H30M1t08 MOrC Sc, Ac 18 XII s 17,2 3C3 ioxcaioe 13 CpeAxae~cxoe Mope Cb, Ac 20 ~1i ~ 24,U !03 bro-socro~xoe 13 Mana� AsxA 29 Cb St - , KEY: 1. DRte 16. Northwesterly 2. ?ype of precipitation 17. Northerly 3. C,~rg, mg/liter 18. Southwesterly 4. Prevailing wind 19. Southeasterly _ 5. Transport direction at 1.5 km 20. North Sea 6. Regions of air mass emergence 21. Mediterranean Sea 7. Form of precipitation 22. Northwestern Siberia 8. Snow 23. Black Sea 9. Same 24. Western Siberia = 10. Rain 25. North Atlantic 11. Abbreviations (see next page) 26. Arctic Oc:e~in 12. Westerly 27. Baltic SE~a - 13. Southerly 28. Western Lurope 14. Northeasterly 29. Asi~ Minor 15. Easterly 35 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONZY - I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ABBREVIATIONS IN TABLE SSE ~~0 FO B ENE = gCB S ~ ~ NE = CB sw ~ ~3 ssE = Fo roa - SSW ~ F01~ 3 SE = FO B - wsw = 3~3 wsw = 3 Eo3 E = B NNW = CC ~ - NW ~ C3 NE = CB w = 3 wNW = 3C3 . ~ - According to measuremente of 1976, the amplitude of the fluctuations of concentratione of organic admixtures in the collected precipitation is 3-30 mg/liter. Proceeding on the basis of the idea that during the move- ment of air masses over great distances there is an accumulation of aero- sols in clouds, including organic admixtures, it was natural to assume that the difference in the concentration of organic admixtures in pre- cipitation collected at a given point was caused, as in casea of trans- = port of inorganic admixtures [1, 5], by a change in the direction of ar- rival of air masses (advection) at a particular point. Before determining the ~ependence of the concentrations of admixtures in precipitation on the direction of distant transpcrt (advection), we _ checked their dependence on wind direction at the measurement point. All casea of ineasurements, in dependence on the prevailing wind directiona were divided into four groups corre~ponding to the principal directions - of the compass. _ For each group of days with a particular wind direction we computed the mean concentration of organic admixtures in precipitation. We did not dis- cover aignificant differences in the concentration of organic admixtures in the water when there were winda of different directions. It can there- fore be concluded that the concentration of admixtures has little depen- _ denc~ on local sources. In order to detect the dependence of the concen- tration of admixtures on the origin of air masses we carried out a com- parison of the concentrations of admixtures in dependence on the region from which the air mass arrived. The region of air mass origin was deter- mined on the basis of the 2- or 3-day trajectories from the sampling point, constructed graphically by the known method [3]. AT850 diagnostic pressure pattern charts for 0300 and 1500 hours were used. The true air particle tra~ectories are more complex than those constructed from the _ pressure pattern charts since each air particle is also displaced ver- ~ - tically, which is caused by vertical movements of different origin. The tra~ectories constr~,~cted by the graphic method and taking into account only horizontal movctments are the averaged traj e~tories of many air par- ticlea. , ~ ! 36 ~ ' FOR OFPICIAL USE ONL~ - i ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY H H N ~ ~ O ~t � ~ ~ ~ u1 I 1 ^ C~l E~ a~ ^i ~ O~ ~ a ~ ~ `d u C! .t"� I-1 y�r a~i ~ a � p :J N ya d A ~ y ~ +I 1 I ~O ~ p ~ CO I I ~ ~ w ~ p ~ ~ .C ~ ~ cd ~ O "i ~ d ~ q ~b ~ ~ ~ ~ w o~ ~ r~ o o r~ ~ a~ ~ a N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a - ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ F~+ O Cl N o0 ~O o0 W - V ~i f7~ ~N C~~ ~ ~ a O ~ 0~! 0 !~-i 3 ~ ~ ~ , ~ N ~ 7 ~ ~ d 'b ~q H 6 e~f c~ - ~ _ D+ � p ~ O ~ N tC N M ~~.1 ~ H ~ p M ~ ~ W r~l ~ 'hl .C z M o~ ~ u ~ ~ q �U a~ ~ c0 ~ ~ G! op - U ~ ~ _ i ~ - ~ ~ 0 k ~ ~ ~ P4 ~ U ~ U A Z , 36a FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE UivLY The method for collecting samples involved the following: liquid precipi- tation was collected using a glass funnel into a beaker, whereas solid pre- cipitation in the form of snow was collected after its falling onto the underlying surface. The photoluminescence of samplea of water in precip- itation was excited by the radiation of a nitrogen laser with a wavelength 337.1 nm. The luminescence apectrum was measured using a DMR-4 mono- _ chromator and a FEU-51 photomultiplier. The spectral width of the slit in the region of the maximum of luminescence intensity ( ~1 = 380-390 nm) was Da � 6.3-6.4 nm. The photoluminescent measurements method was described - in detail in [6]. The concentration of arganic carbon in precipitation water was d,~termined from the permanganate oxidability of this water [8]. The figure ahu~s the dependence of the luminescence level of individual precipitation samples on their concentration of organic carbon. In this case the error in measuring luminescence intensity did not exceed 10-20% [6]; the uncertainty with respect to the concentration of organic carbon - was determined by the uncertainty in the correlation between permangan- ate oxidability and the concentration of organic carbon and was a value of about 30y [8]. On the assumptior. of a linear correlation between the lumitiescence level and the concentration ef organic impurities in the water we used the least squares method in obtaining a direct regression, described by the equation Corg =-0.2 + 20.8 E[mg/liter]. The linear _ - correlation coefficient was 0.91; the dispersion for the slope of the regression line was 2.2. The existence of such a correlation made it possible to :etermine the concentration of organic carbon (by the photo- _ luminescent me:hod) in small samples (volume 3-5 ml) of precipitation water, whereas such a determination by chemical methods requires water samples with a volume not less than 50-100 ml. It should be noted that the concentration of organic carbon in the samples which we investigated - Corg,~; 3-30 mg/liter does not contradict the data characteristic for the precipitation in a number of regions in the USSR (Georgia, Arkhangel'- akaya, Novoeibirskaya, Omskaya, Rostovskaya, Yaroslavskaya Oblasts, Khab- arovskiy Kray) and Sweden [7-9J. An investigation of organic impurities in precipitation was carried out at Obninsk in the neighborhood of the high meteorological mast (Hr~i) in different time intervals during the light time of day. Both in the city itself and in the immediate neighborhood there were no large industrial enterprises and therefore there were no large local sources of contamin- ation. The results of ineasurements of the organic component in precipitation water are presented in Table 1. The table also gives some meteorological - parameters characterizing the conditions for the falling of precipita- tion; the wind direction at the 300-m level and the form of the clouds from which the precipitation fell (the information was selected from hourly measurements on the Iil~i); the direction of transport in the tropo- sphere at the 1.5-km level, determined from AT850 pressure pattern charts, - was determined twice a~ay at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center. 37 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY The accuracy in constructing tra~ectories from pressure pattern charts was evaluated in [4]. In the temperate latitudes of Eurasia, at levels _ cloae to the standard isobaric surfacea, the error attains considerable values. The tra~ectory error in cases of construction from preseure pat- tern charte increasea with an increaee in wind velocity and the duration of transport. In our case for construction of 2- or 3-day tra~ectories from the AT850 charta the error at the end of the tra~ectory is about 200 km. All the cases of ineasurements of the concentrationa of organic im- purities were grouped in dependence on the direction of air mass arrival. ~ - For each of these groupa we computed the mean concentrations of organic admixturea in the collected precipitation. The reaulta are preaented in Table 2. It follows from the data in Table 2 that in the samples of pre- cipitation falling on days when the arrival of air masses occurred from the south and southwest (Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean and Black Seas) the mean level of organic admixtures in the precipitation was: Corg = 13.5 (7.8) mg/liter (the standard deviation is given in parentheses). For the group of samples of precipitation falling on days with the westerly transport of air masses the mean level of the concentration of organic ad- miatures was: Corg = 6.0 (2.9) mg/liter, and for the group of samples of precipitation falling on days of arrival of air masses from the north, - Corg = 3.3 (0.2) mg/liter. We should note the considerable value of the deviation from the mean level of concentrations in the group of days with southerly transport. In order to find an explanation for such a scatter of the concentrations of admixtures within this group, an attempt was m~de to take into account the differences in the vertical thickness of cloud cover observed at the hours of collection of precipitation. All the cases of observations in this group were broken down into two sub- groups: the first subgroup included days with a cloud cover for the most part of St and Sc forms (verticai extent up to 2-3 km); the second sub- group included days when there was a predominance of cloud cover situated at an altitude of 4-5 km Ns-As, and Cb (vertical thickness 9-10 km). The clc?ud systems from the second subgroup were usually frontal and were caused - by extensive zones of ascending movements of moist sir along atmospheric fronts in cyclones and troughs. The mean concentration of organic admix- tures in precipitation was computed for subgroups I and II (Table 2). Without discussing the possible mechanism, we point out that the precip- itation falling on days with southerly advection from well-developed cl'oud systems Ns-As and Cb contains ma;~imum concentrations of organic matter _ for the entire period. It follows from everything set forth above that the arrival of an air mass from the south, southwest and southeast is associated with an increase in organic admixtures in precipitation. The mentioned increase is particular- ly conspicunus on days when precipitation falls from cloud systems of the Ns-As and Cb types. The data were obtained using a small amount of exper- - imental data. Nevertheless, they are evidence of the possibility of de- termining the region from which the air mass arrives in the central part of the European USSR on the basis of the concentration of organic admix- tures in precipitation. ~ 38 FOR OFFICIAL U~E ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY , BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Aleksandrov, E. L., Kireyeva, N. M., Mashkova, G. B., Yasevich, N. P., "Concentration of Natural Atmospheric Aerosols in Air Masses Trans- ported from Different Dire~tions," TRUDY IEM (Transactions of the In- atitute of Experimental Meteorology), No 12(31), 1976. 2. Bashmakova, 0. N.; Matveyeva, A. A., Tarasov, M. N., "Chemical Compo- aition of Atmospheric Fallout According to Observations in the Region of the Otkaznenskoye Reservoir," GIDROKHIMICHESKIYE MATERIALY (Hydro- chemical Materials), Vol 49, 1969. 3. Zverev, A. S., SINOPTICHESRAYA METEOROLOGIYA (Synoptic Meteorology), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1977. 4. Knshel'kov, Yu. P., Britvina, R. A., "Analysis of the Accuracy of Tra~ectories Determined from Synoptic Charts at Different Altitudes," TRUDY TsAO (Transactions of the. Central Aerological Observatory), No _ 73, 1967. S. Malakhov, S. G., Trufakin, V. A., "Influence of the Advection of Air - Masses on Change in the Concentration of Lead-210 and the Fission Producte in the Atmoapheric Surface Layer in the Kirov Region," - TRUDY IEM, No 1(32), 1972. 6. Roma:~ov, N. P., Shuklin, V. S., "Photoluminescence Characteristica ' of Water in Precipitation," TRUDY IEM, No 19(72), 1978. 7. Semenov, A. D., Nemtsova, L. N., Kishkinova, T. S., Pashanova, A. P., "Organic Substances in Precipitation," DOId,ADY AN SSSR (Reporta of the USSR Academy of Sciences), Vol 173, No 5, 1967. 8. Skopintsev, B. A., Bakulina, A. G., Mel'nikov, N. I., "Total Organic Carbon in Atmospheric Water," GIDROKHIMICHESKIYE MATERIALY, Vol 56, _ 1971. 9. Supatashvili, G. D., Meladze, R. G., Semenov, A. D., "Organic Matter in Precipitation at Tbilisi," GIDROKHIMICHESKIYE MATERIALY, Vol 65, - 1977. 10. KHIMIYA NIZHNEY ATMOSFERY ~Chemistry of the Lower Atmosphere), edited - by S. Rasoul, Moscow, Mir, 1978. 11. Bullrich, K., Hanel, G., "Effects of Organic Aerosol Constituent~ on Extinction and Absorption Coefficients and Li~uid Water Contents of Fogs and Clouds," PURE AND APPL. GEOPHYS., Vol 116, No 2-3, 1978. 39 ~ - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UDC 551(509.313:510.528) OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE TROPOPAUSE , Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 2, Feb 80 pp 32-39 [Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences V. A. Gordin and Ye. A. Loktionova, USSR Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Cen- - ter, submitted for publication 5 June 1979] Abstract: Applying the spline approximation - method and uaing data on geopotential, the _ authors determine the characteristics of _ the tropopause, agreeing with the actually observed values. A variational smoothing method is proposed for using data on the trop4p~use surface as initial data in prog- nostic models. This makes it possible to obtain a single-aheet surface close to is- entropic. ' _ [Text] 4~1. Introduction. A method for conatructfng the vertical temperature _ profile from geopotential values at ten atandard isobaric eurfaces by means of a spline approximation was proposed in [3]. The good accuracy of the - method made it possible, on the basis of this temperature profile, to cr~n- struct an algorithm for determining the level of the tropopause in ac- cordance with the WMO criterion. An exposition of this algorithm is the main content of this paper. An alternative to the mentioned algorithm would be "direct" ob3ective anal- yeis of data on the tropopause, in which these data, contained in aerolog- _ ical telegrams, are interpolated by some method at the grid points of in- _ tersection. Realization of this method involves the following difficulties: 1) At the present time there is no program for the checking of data on the tropopoause. However, for such checking it is possible to employ our algo- rithm, resting on checked geopotential data. 2) The great spatial variability of the tropopause field. The absence of data on the correlation function of the tropopause field. Difficulties - associated with the posaibility of existence of a different number of 40 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY tropopauses at ad~acent stationa. 3) The mismatch between the temperature profile obtained as a result of ob~ective analysis at a given point in a grid and obtained as a result of independent ob~ective analysis of the tropopauae level. In our algo- rithm these difficulties are absent. In formulating the algorithm we took into account two types of possible data output: 1) the actual tropopause, which is computed at points in the ob~ective analyais grid or at stationa; 2) a"etylized" tropopause, intended for use in a numerical prognostic model in a Q"-,system of co- ordinates for s~tting of a boundary condition [8, 10]. In the firs;. case the only qv~lity criterion is the closeness of the de- - termined characteristics of the tropopause (p and T) to the characteris- tics of the tropopause contained in aerological telegrams (group with the distinguishing digits 88). In the second case the finai quality criterion is the quality of the fore- cast according to a particular model, and intermediate criteria of the type of smoothness of the tropopause field (mandatorily single-sheet) al- low different interpretations. 4~2. Definition of Tropopause _ According to the WMO definition [6]. a) The first tropopause is defined as the very loweat level at which the - vertical temperature gradient is decreased to 2�C/km or less, under the condition that the mean vertical gradient between this level and all - higher levels in the limits 2 km does not exceed 2� C/km; b) If above the first tropopause the mean gradient between any level and _ all higher levels in t:e limits 1 km exceeds 3� C/km, then a"second _ tropopause" is defined using the sa~e criterion as indicated in (a); this tropopause can be either within or above a layer with a thickness - of 1 km. The tropopause level lying below 500 mb is taken only in a case when: - 1) there is no tropopause above this level, 2) the mean vertical temperature gradient in any layer with a thickness less than 1 km does not exceed 3�C/km above this level, _ 3) the maximum altitude of rising of a radiosonde is not below 200 mb. _ Point (a), defining the tropopause level zl, is formalized in the follow- - ing way: ~ ~ ~ zl = min z; (for any z such that z+ 2 km~jz> z, -(T(z) - - P~z)~500 mb . -r~z~~~2�c;~K.,~ ~~z-z~~. cl) 41 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY If T(z) is a smooth function (and this ia true in our case), then it is easy to demonstrate that - ~ as (x~) = 2� C/KM. _ _ (2) . Condition (2), it goea without eaying, ie inadequate for the satiafac- tion of (1), but makes it possible to find so-called "probable tropo- pauses" at which by definition there is satisfaction of equation (2), and then check condition (1) for them. In conditions (1) and (2) it is pos~ble to praceed to the - lln p coordinate: ;1 = min for any ~ such that H(~ 2 km>H(~ H(f~ (500) . -(T(~)-T~~~))~2�C/xet ~N~S)-H~`s))}. ~1') _ Similarly there ie formalization of point (b) in the definition of tropo- - pause levels. 413. Description of Algorithm for Finding Probable Tropopauses We will assume - - , - - p(;) _ ~E +LT~ where L= 2�C/km/ This is a spline of the order 2 and defect 2. For find- - ing its roots it w~ould be adequate to solve (2) for each of the layers - between the standard levels, within the limite of each of which P(~ ) is a second-degree polynomial. But it may be found that the roots of this _ polynomial fall outside the mentioned interval, and accordingly, in seek- ing them we in vain extracted the square roots; the operation is relative- ly time-consum~ng with reapect to computer time. Therefore, in aeeking the roota the firat step is to check the preaence of roots in this interval. Aesume that a, b are the ends of the interval. If P(a)P(b) < 0, there is one root in the interval, if not, then 0 or 2. In the second case, if p'~a)P~~b)~ 0, then there are no roots in this interval, and if not, then we compute the discriminant D= P'(a)Z - 2P(a)P"(a). If D~ 0, there are no roots (since the case D= 0 is not a general situation, in this program this condition is replaced by D~ 0), whereas if D~ 0, there can be the ' - four cases illustrated in the figure. Cases (a~ and (c) are distinguished by the condition P'(a)P(a)~ 0. We note that checking of the condition P' (a)P`(b)~0 could be excluded without sacrifice for completeness of exam- ination of variants, but since this condition is frequently realized, and in this case subsequent checkings are excluded, we deemed it desirable to ~ leave it. If there are roots in the [a, b] interval and P changes sign in it from negative to positive with a decrease in auch a root is called , the probable tropopause and is determined using the formula ~1,2 = ~p~~~a)]'1[-P'(a)fD1~2]. 42 _ FOR 0~'FICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070043-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY P QI a t'� p 6) b~�+ i o b ~ v b ~ . , . p d)~ ~ P 1~ ~ v b Q b ~ ~ Fig. 1. Possihla curves of quadratic spline P(~,) in one of smoothness - segmenta [a, b] under conditions P(a)P(b) ~ 0, P' (a)P` (b)> a~;i~aA 2a-SO 6-~20 10-40 10-,25 Tlpc PapnaTbe ~i ~i - 16 3aha naThe - 17 I7penrop~c Kpd~~a 20-30 6-,10 -~-10 18 lOHCma~ Gc cr KpdMa - ~