JPRS ID: 9693 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY

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• Sequence Number: 56
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/9693
28 April 1981
_ USSR Report
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 12, December 1980
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JPRS L/9693
28 April 1981
USSR REPORT
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 12, December 1980
Translation of the Russian-language monthly journal METEOROLOGIYA I
GIDROLOGIYA published in Moscow by Gidrometeoizdat.
CONTENTS
Some Problems of Meteorology of the Stratomesosphere 1
On the Prediction of Air Temperature 11
Structure of Atmospheric Fronts 26
Stdtistical Characteristics of Instantaneous Wind Shears in the Lower Layer of
the Atmosphere 31
Remote Monitoring of Gas Effluent by the Combined Light Scattering Method....... 40
Method for the Interpolation of Data From a Field Experiment 51
Annual Budget of Exchange of Oxygen Between the Ocean and the Atmosphere.... 58
Use of SatPllite Measurements of the Surface Temperature Field in a Numerical
Model o� the Upper Layer of the Ocean 67
- Evaluation of the Accuracy of Numerical Computations of Stationary Wind-Driven
_ Currents on the She1F 77
Hydrometeorological Validation for Interzonal Redistribution of River Runoff.... 83
Prediction of Distribution of High-Water Runoff by Months in the Middle and
Lower Courses of ttie Ob' and Irtysh Rivers ................................a... 90
Computation of the Main Hydrophysical Characteristic af Soils Using Data on
Soil-Hydrolagical Constants .................o.......... 102
Phytoclimatic Features of a Rice Field in the Southern Ukrainian SSR........... 112
- a- LIII - USSR - 33 S&T FOUO)
F(1R nFFT('TAT. i1,CF. nNT.Y
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Some Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation in the Ukraine 118
Relationship Between Turbulent Diffusion Coefficients for a Drifting Spot and
the Medium......a 123
Review of Monograph by Ye. M. Dobryshman:"Dynamics of the Equatorial
Atmosphere't (Dinamika Ekvatorial'noy Atmosfery), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1980.....o ...........................o..o........... 126
- Eightiet'7~ Birthday of Taisiya Vasil'yevna Pokrovskaya 130
Seventieth Birthday of Nikolay Vladimirovich Petrenko 132
Official Awards to Soviet Hydrometeorologists................................ 135
Conferences, Meetings and Seminars........................................... 137
Nutes From Abroad............................................................ 141
~ Obituary of Ivan Varfolomeyevich Kravchenko (1912-1980) 144
- b -
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w
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UDC 551.510.(532.533)
S014E PROBLEMS 0F METEOROLOGY OF TEIE STRATOMESOSPHERE
Moscow MFTEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 80 pp 5-13
[Ariicle by G. A. Kokin, doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, Central Aero-
logical Observatory, manuscript submitted 9 Jun 80]
[Text] Abstract: The author examines some problems
in the present status of the atratomesosphere.
. 'I'he article discusses methods for collecting
the information, climatic characteristics of
the upper atmospfiere, problems involved in
intraseasonal and interseasonal restructur-
ings, different factors in the formation of
- the thermal and dynamic regimes, as well as
individual aspects of solar-atmospheric re-
lationships.
_ The region of altitudes 20-120 km is corLstantly attracting the attention of re-
searchers. This is attributable not only to the theoretical, but also the prac-
tical aspects, which are determined by the needs of aerospace science and radio
cammunicatian, but also synoptic and climatological study of the troposphere. The
latter circumstance is associated with the fact, in particular, that such cata-
strophic Fhenomena as winter stratospheric or stratomesospheric warmings are ac-
companied by the blocking of tropospheric processes, and the climate of the tro-
posphere to a definite degree is dependent on radiation and dynamic processes in
- the stratome5osphere.
All this haa stimulated international scientific organizations to propose the glo-
bal research project MAP (Middle Atmosphere Program) (IAMAP), w',lich'is to be im-
plemented during the period 1979-1985.
Most of the data on temperature and wind iu the indicate,' altitude region have been
, obtained using radiosondes (to altitudes 30 km), rockets, and recently, IR satel-
lite radiometers.
The methods for measuring atmospheYic parameters with radiosondes are well known;
- rocket methods are more diversified, different with respect to accuracy character-
istics, varying with respect to working range of altitixdes, complexity, and ac-
cordingly, degree of use. For example, the rocket grenade method, to a consider-
_ able degree without significant systematic errors, is so complex in application
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that it has not come into wide use,and according to data at our disposal at the
- present time is not in use at all. Other methods, such as the Pitot tube method or
the method of light falling spheres, are used sporadically at individual points.
The principal mass of data has been accumulated by means of rocket probes in
= which the temperature sensor used is a thermistor or resistance thermometer and
the wind sensor used is a parachute. The sounding is accomplished for the most
part from the network of rocket sounding stations in the USSR and the United
States. In addition, a mass of regular data is obtained in 3apan (Riori), in In-
dia (Tumba polygon, in collaboration with the USSR), and more limited masses of
data in Great Britain and France. Measurements o f temperature and wind by means
of rockets were earlier made at[ioomer (Australia), and also in some other countries.
hocket measurements for measuring classical meteoro logical parameters, used in dif-
ferent countries, tiave different systematic and random errors, but as indicated by
their comparisons, the discrepancies in data are : mall to 60 km. Above this level
the diffeie*_ces become substantial and special attention is being devoted to the
correlation and collation of the different methods.
_ T;rtortunately, satellite methods applicable to the considered levels are more of a
semiquantitative character because the basis for the processing of data is the
regression relationships between the radiation flux measured with radiometers and
temperature or geopotential difference, determine d by direct methods, and also
geopotential charts for the principal lower levels. Despite this, the satellite
method makes possible the best study of macroscale processes in the upper atmo-
- sphere. Recently surface radioelectronic methods have come into increasing use for
investigation of dynamic parameters in the upper a tmosphere. The method of radar
observati.on of ineteor trails and the radio fading meth4d for determining wind in
the upper mesosphere have come into extensive use.
Successful attempts have been undertaken for studying movements in the stratomeso-
sphere by the method of incoherent scattering of radio waves, but due to its high
cost this method cannot be employed on a network basis, although it makes it pos-
sible to obtain continuous series of observations, which is especially important
in a study of diurnal and more short-period atmospheric fluctuations. Attempts to
use the method of partial reflection.s of radio waves have been undertaken for
' these same purpases.
The composition of neutral and charged components is determined by remote (optical,
spectrophotometric, radiometric, laser and radiophysical) and contact (mass spec-
trometers with cryogenic evacuation, collpction o-f samples into cylinders, chemi-
luminescent instruments, thin silver films, resonance-luminescent instruments,
aluminum oxide and coulometric sensors, sensors of aerosol particles, d-c probes,
high-frequency and impedance probes, special capac itoes, etc.) methods.
Unfortunately, not one of the enumerated methods o r instruments for the time being
has become a network instrument or method, although optical methods have come into
quite broad use, especially in satellite limb sounding.
Now we will examine in greater detail some peculiarities of the st.ructure and pro-
cesses in the stratomesosphere. The seasonal change in the direction of zonal flow,
caused by the seasonal inversion of the temperature gradient, is a characteristic
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feature of the considered layers of the atmosphere.
The s ummer period is characterized by an almost zonal distribution of temperature
- and a predominance of easterly zonal flow, determined by the stratomesospheric
anticyclonic vortex, whose center virtually coincides with the geographical pole.
In the stratosphere of the summer northern hemisphere the temperature gradient is
direc ted from the high to the middle latitudes. At an altitude of about 60 km
there is a change in the sign of the thermal gradient. At an altitude of 80 km in
the middle latitudes the temperature is approximately -90�C, whereas in the polar
regions it is -100�C or lower.
During the summer in the southern hemisphere there is a similar picture, but on
the basis of a relatively limited volume of observations the conclusion can be
drawn that the gradient in the stratosphere between the middle and high latitudes
- somewhat exceeds the similar values for the northern hemisphere, the inversion of
- the gradient occurs at altitudes 65-70 km, and the value of the temperature gradi-
ent i tself at these levels is approximately the same as for simuner in the northern
hemisphere.
During one and the same summer season the interhemisphere differences in wind velo-
city a t similar altitudes are manifested particularly strongly in the upper strato-
sphere and lower mesosphere of the low latitudes (in the southern hemisphere the
wind velocity is 20-30 m/sec greater in the region of the tropics). In the middle
latitudes the interhemisphere differences decrease and do not exceed 5-10 m/sec
- (in the southern hemisphere the wind velocity is greater). These fluctuations are
- associated with the asymmetry of the annual variation in the tropical and equator-
ial zones of both hemispheres. According to some data, in the stratosphere of the
summsr hemisphere (20-35 km) there are traveling waves in the temperature and wind
fields moving in the general flow with a velocity exceeding the velocity of the
latter. ThP nature of such formations for the time being has not been clarified.
Since in 'Lne tropical and equatorial latitudes there is a predominance of the
semiannual harmonic in temperature fluctuations, the temperature gradient between
_ the temperate and tropical latitudes varies considerably in both the summer and
winter seasons.
- The winter period is characterized by a westerly flow caused by a cyclone whose
_ cente r is situated in the high latitudes and also a substantial impairment of zon-
ality in the distribution of temperature and wind. In the northern hemisphere these
impairments are more substantial than in the southern hemisphere. In the northern
hemisphere a temperature decrease to 30-50 km continues up to the high latitudes.
In the upper stratosphere of the southern hemisphere the region of lowest tempera-
tures is displaced in a meridional direction into the region 50�S. This can be as-
sociated with the formation of a region of relatively high temperatures in the upper
stratosphere over Antarctica in the second half of the winter. As a result, in the
zone 50-10�S during the greater part of the winter period there is an inversion of
the mean meridional temperature gradient at altitudes greater than 30-35 km. In the
- northe rn hemisphere, however, a similar inversion in general is not observed. There
are different hypotheses concerning the temperature rise in the mesosphere of the
winter hemisphere. A hypothesis can be expressed concerning the nature of the in-
, terhemisphere differences in this phenomenon, but all this for tlie time being does
not have an unambiguous explanation.
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The value of the positive temperature contrasts in the upper stratosphere in the
subtropical and middle latitudes of the winter southern hemisphere is greater
than in the winter northern hemisphere. This is one of the reasons for the inter-
hemisphere differences in wind velocity in the upper stratosphere. According to
some data, the interhemisphere differences in the zonal wind velocity in the mean
winter stratosphere of the extratropical latitudes exceed 40-50 m/sec (in the
southern hemisphere the wind velocity is greater).
A change in the nature of the circulation in the stratomesosphere occurs in spring
and autumn for each of the hemispheres, clearly delimiting the summer and winter
periods. In addition to interseasonal restructurings, in the stratomesosphere
there are large intraseasonal restructurings accompanied by stratospheric or
stratomesospheric warmings. It must be noted at once that despite the general sim-
ilarity, the restructurings in the-northern and so,ithern hemispheres have many sig-
nif7cant differences. The nature of the interseasonal restructurings of circulation
is clear and is determined by the annual variation of the thermal regime in the
c-tr. tomesosphere. However, the processes developing with a change in the thermal
:gime of the stratomesosphere and determining the nature of the interseasonal re-
:�tructurings are different. For the most part they have a dynamic character, but in
individual years the contribution of radiation prncesses is substantial.
_ It was discovered earlier that the spring reversal of circulation occurs first at
altitudes greater than 80 km, and then this process moves down as far as the velo-
pause; the autumn reversal, on the other hand, begins from the middle stratosphere
and is propagated upward and downward. The duration of the spring restructuring is
greater than the duraLion of the autunn restructuring. It was established in later
investigations, makiag it possible to create high-level pressure-pattern charts,
that the spring restructuring, like the autumn restrscturing, begins for the most
part in the middle stratosphere and is propagated into the upper and lower layers.
It was nated that sometimes the spring restructuring also begins in the upper meso-
sphere simultaneously with restructuring in the middle stratosphere. The times of
- onset of the spring restructuring, in contrast to the autumn restructuring, migrate
rather greatly and this is also true of its duration. As a result, it is possible
to distinguish early, intermediate and late spring restructurings. The onset of an
- early restructuring is in the second half of March, the onset of an intermediate
restructuring is about the mi&le of April, and the onset of a late restructuring
is in late April or early May. The time of onset of the autumn restructuring is
the second half of August and the duration is approximately 20 days.
We note that .in the southern hemisphere the times of onset of the spring restructur-
ing migrate less and its duration is also less than in the northern hemisphere.
a A number of investigations have been c�rried out for the purpose of determining the
relationship between [he time of onset of the spring restructuring and the phase
of the quasi-two-year equatorial cycle of circulation, and also the nature and
times of intraseasonal restructurings, but, in our opinion, unambiguous relation-
' ships have not yet been established.
Although the morphology of the intraseasonal restructurings has b::en investigated
in sufficient detail, their physical nature still has not been thoroughly clarif-
ied.
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_ The development of high-altitude anticyclones (Pacific Ocean and Atlantic) is at-
tributed by a number of authots to the propagation of long traveling waves from
_ the troposphere into the stratosphere, arising as a result of instability of the
westerly general flow. The propagation of these waves into the stratosphere is re--
lated to the development of unstable stratification of temperature and wind in the
stratosphere. However, until now this concept has not been thoroughly developed
and a number of features of intraseasflnal restructurings have not yet been exr-
plained. In particular, problems relating to the mrphology of development of high-
altitude anticyclones are unclear, their migration paths have not been explained,
the fact of appearance of centers of heat associated with the mentioned high-alti-
tude formations is not fully understood, etc. The opinions cited in the litera-
ture have more the form of hypotheses than rigorous theories.
Synoptic research methods have made it possible to establish that intraseasonal re-
structurings and the warmings in the northern hemisphere associated with them are
- macroscale processes, in contrast to processes in the southern hemisphere, where
_ they rarely arise, have a local character and have a relatively low intensity, not
exerting'any significant influence on circulation processes.
According to the modern WMO classification, intraseasonal restructurings can be
Classified as strong, weak and local. Each of them, as in3icated above, is asso-
ciated with the development of a high pressure region. In addition to the two an-
ticyclones mentioned above, recentl}r such aa anticyclone was discovered in the
Tndian Ocean and the warmings associated with it were propagated to the Central
Asia and Siberia regions. In addition, it was established that the spring restruc-
turing is associated with the intrusion of the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic anticy-
cones into the polar latitudes. It was emphasized Chat the more powerful the in-
traseasonal restructuring, and the later it occurs, the laCer will be the onset
of the spring restrunturing. During recent years (beginning in 1974) it was dis-
covered that powerful final warmings can undergo direct trans3.tion into spring re-
structurings. With the approach of anticyclones to circumpolar space the velocity
of the anticyclonic vortex increases, which is a result of a sharp increase in the
pressure gradient. With velocities of approximately 70 m/sec a heat wave arises,
propagating downward from great altitudes. The horizontal propagation of heat oc-
curs across the flow and along the frontal discontinuity with velocittes exceeding
the velocity of propagation of heat due to turbulent heat conductivityo Theoretical
investigations have shown that this propagation of heat is a wave processo In the
case of strong warmings the temperature of the upper stratosphere increases by 40-
60�C. It was noted that in a case when the upper boundary of the anticyclones at-
tains the upper mesosphere there will be mesospheric or stratomesospheric warmings.
Tonospheric sounding has indicated that periods of warming are accompanied by the
anomalous absorption of radio waves and direct measurements in this period have
revcaled an increase in the electron concentration in the ionospheric D region.
Tftis indicates, evidently, a change in the composition of atmospheric air due to.
powerful vertical mixing. True, it was recently demonstrated that an increase in
the electron concentration in the ionospheric D region apparently occurs only in
tfie case of inesospheric or stratomesospheric warmings.
Some authors have attempted to attribute winter warmings to the direct effect of
corpuscular streams with an increase in solar and geomagnetic activityo However,
tFie apparently real temporal coincidencs of these phenamena which has been noted
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cannot be regarded as their direct correlation. Some facts indicate that if such a
correlation does exist, it is indirect and more complex. We emphasize that during
a period of warmings there is a marked temperature decrease ir. the lower strato-
sphere and troposphere, not only in the region of warmings, but even in the trop-
~ ical latitudes; hence, evidently, there is a parrial transport of energy into the
higher latitudes. In general, the winter season is characterized by a decrease in
the solar energy accumulated by the atmosphere and therefore the role of dynamic
factors increases to a considerable degree.
Now we will proceed to an examination of some proeesses in the tropical region. As
indicated above, the thermal regime in this zone is characterized by the presence
of both semiannual and annual harmonics. The wind regime is characterized by the
presence of semiannual, annual and quasi-two-year cyclicity, that is, with such a
trequency the easte;:ly flow is replaced by a westeYly flow. Already in the 1950's
it was established that the easterly circulation of the summer hemisphere in the
middte stratosphere is propagated into the winter hemisphere; the zone of propaga-
ti ain different geographical regions is different and varies from year to year.
lccordingly, it can be surmised that the annual cycle in the trcpical zone is caus-
.,d by the annual variability of atmvspheric parameters in the middle and high lati-
tudes. The nature of the quasi-two-year circulation cycle has not yet been precise-
ly established, although there are several theoretical attempts at its explanation.
One of these is based on the correlation of this cycle with the two-year cycle in
the variation of solar radiation caused by the migration of the earth's orbit
arourd the sun; another theory attributes this phenomenon to parametric resonance
arising as a result of the annual variation of solar radiation.
We note at once thac quasi-two-year cyclicity is also observed in the intensity of
_ galaceic cosmic rays, in the variability of the planetary geomagnetic index, in
the indices of zonal and meridional circulation, in the intensity of winter strato-
- sFheric warmings, etc. Accordingly, we feel that the solar radiation hypothesis of
- quasi-two-year cyclicity is preferable. It was also noted that the duration of the
easterly phase of the qua.si-two-year cycle is dependent on the degree of solar ac-
~ tivity. The energy of the tropical and equatorial zones probably plays a substan-
tial ro'le in formation of the high-altitude Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and pos-
sibly, Indian Ocean anticyclones.
The polar regions are characterized by an unstable stratification, which creates
conditions for the propagation of wave disturbances in them. If it is taken into
account that the stratosphere and thermosphere of the trapical and equatorial re-
gions are accumulators of solar electromagnetic energy, whereas the polar region
is an accumulator of corpuscular energy, it can be postulated that precisely these
regions determine many processes in the middle latitudes. However, this hypothesis
requires further confirmation.
- Eoth the zonal background distribution of structural and dynamic parameters of the
stratomesosphere and the factors determining energy transitions in the atmosphere
are caused by the absorption of solar energy of wave and corpuscular nature. Some
of the absorbed energy is then radiated as IR radiation into space; part geneiates
dynamic and dissipative processes in the atmosphere itseif.
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The principal components responsible for the absorption of solar UV energy in the
considered range of altitudes are molecular oxygen and ozone. The short-wave part
of the W spectral range is absorbed above 100 km and causes the dissociation of
' molecular o;rygen (Schumann-Runge continuum); the longer-wave part of the W rgdia-
, tion dissociates molecular oxygen at lesser altitudes, causing ozone formation.
In turn, ozone, being an active accumulator qf radiation energy in the range of
wavelengths 2600-3500 A, is responsible for the heating of the upper atmosphere
and lower mesosphere. Some of the solar energy in the visible part of the spectrum
is absorbed by ozone in the lower stratosphere, and although the absorption coef-
ficient in this spectral region is extremely small, a definite effect from absorp-
tion of this radiation is observed, because this specCral region takes in a consid-
erable part of the solar wave energy. Some of the wave energy is absorbed and
scattered by the aerosol component, but computations of these mechanisms are dif-
ficult due to the extremely limited information available on the physicochemical
nature of stratomesospheric aerosols.
The ozone heating function is dependent on the system of chemical reactions deter-
Mining its equilibr.ium state in the atmosphere. Despite the great number of stud-
ies which have appeared recently in connection with the problem of artificial mod-
ification of ozone, the question of receipts and losses in the photochemistry of
atmospheric ozone additional to those set forth in the Chapman theory for the time
being still remains open and this limits the poss ibility of parameterization of
radiant receipts and losses of energy, which is extremely necessary for creating
three-dimensional models of general circulation of the atmosphere. Some of the
solar W radiation is absorbed above 60 km by water vapor, which leads to the for-
mation of additional quantities of hydroxyl and atomic hydrogen, actively partic-
ipating in ozone cycles. The emission of the radiation part of the energy occurs
for the most part in the IR range.
The principal emitters are carbon dioxide (15FLm), ozone (9.6~1m) and water vapor
(2.7; 6.3',lm and > 20�.m). 1"n the lower thermosphere a definite part of the IR en-
ergy is emitted by atomic oxygen (63 N.m). Whereas carbon dioxide is a quite stable
component, the other components are extremely variable. This applies, in partic-
ular, to water vapor and atomic oxygen. The computations show that the main frac-
tion of the effiitted energy falls in the C02 band 151A.m. However, these computations
assumed a model of an almost "dry" atmosphere. The latest, now quite numerous meas-
urements have indicated that a model of a"dry" atmosphere does not correspond to
reality and the ratio of the mixture can attain 10'4 g/gair) at altitudes 70-80 km.
In addition, the mixing ratio tias a tendency to an increase from the low to the
high latitudes. If these data are confirmed, wate r vapor must be assigned a more
significant place in formation of the heat and dynamic regimes of the stratomeso-
sphere, especially during the period of the polar night in the high latitudes.
It appears that corpuscular solar streams to a definite degree can exert an influ-
ence on the dynamic and thermal regimes of the stratomesosphere. Their energy is
extremely inadequate for exerting a direct influen ce on the state of the upper at-
mosphere, but they can play the role of an additional catalyst of some processes.
First, solar cosmic rays, according to some data, exert a definite effect on mol-
ecular nitrogen, generating a nitrogen oxide cycle of ozone destruction. Second,
they are an additional source of atomic oxygen, which in turn can lead to the
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- additional formation of ozoneo These mechanisms for the time being are not indis-
putable and there is a need for experimental and theoretical investigations di-
rected to their study. Third, solar cosmic rays are an additional source of ion-
ization. Their role is particularly conspicuous in formation of the nighttime ion-
osphere. An increase in the electron concentration in the ionospheric E region re-
sults in an increase in the intensity of the polar electrojet, and this in turn de-
termines the strength of the induced electric field in the atmosphere, and accord-
, ingly, the dynamics and thermal regime of the lower thermsphere and upper meso-
- sphere.
We note that the creation of theo retical models of circulation and the thermal re-
- gime is impossible without sufficiently complete information on the tensor of tur-
bulent diffusion, and also on the eontribution of wave processes to the energy of
the upper atmosphere. Although a number of studie.: devoted to an examination of
the mentioned mechanisms have recently appeared, for the time being they have a
strictly exploratory character.
'r. should be noted that solution of the problem of wave generation in the atmo-
sphere is closely related to solution of the problem of the relationship between
Lhe underlying surface and the atmosphere.
In particular, the tiighly promising attempt at explaining the generation of long
waves i^ related to clarificatio n of the meEhanism of the influence of the oro-
graphic and thernal nonuniformity of the underlying surface on the general flow.
tJa feel that sucti an examination is only part of the more general problem. The
general flow is exchanged with the underlying surface not only by momentum and
lcinetic energy. As a result of the processes of turbulent thermal conductivity and
turbulent diffusion there is a transfer of thermal energy and matter through the
atmospheric boundary layer. This must certainly be taken into account in solving
such important problems relating to the upper atmosphere as the formation of
standing and traveling waves, receipts and losses involved in ozone formation.
It remains to emphasize that a decisive role in these processes is also played by
cloud particles, for the upper atmosphere constituting a singular underlying sur-
_ face. We note that at the present time these matters only now are being mentioned
in the literature and the prablems are only being formulated.
Finally, we will examine the problem of the relationship between processes in the
stratomesosphere, solar and geomagnetic activity. We have already dealt with some
of its aspects before.
iJhereas the problem of the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activity,
on the one hand, and weather tropospheric processes, on the other, still remains
open to a considerable degree, evidently due to the facti that clear an'd unambig-
uous relationships between these phenomena cannot be established because of char-
acteristic tropospheric "noise," it is easier to establish such relationships
with stratospheric and mesospheric processes, despite the fact that these regions
have their own characteristic "noise."
The correlation between the diurnal variation of teniperature and wind in the
stratomesosp}iere a,id the diurnal variation of the radiation flux of the quiet sun
has been established quite reliably both theoretically and experimentally.
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It has also been discovered that during individual periods the amplitudes and
� phases of diurnal and semidiurnal fluctuations of temperature and wind in the
atratomesosphere are disrupted and there are substantial differences from the val-
ues pred?_cted by theory. An analysis indicated that these phenomena evidently oc-
- cur during solarly and geomagnetically disturbed periods. At the present Cime it
_ is extremely difficult to draw a final conclusion concerning the correlation of
these phenomena due to the substantial errors in rocket measurements. It is obvious
that during periods of solar disturbances, accompanied by the intrusion of solar
cosmic particles into the stratosnhere, thEre are sharp changes in the dynamic
and temperature regimes of the stratomesosphere in both the polar and ir. the tem-
- perate latitudes. A singular wave disturbance is propagated from the upper strato-
sphere upward and downward and the amplitude of this disturbance increases with
an increase in altitude and attenuates with its decrease. Five to seven days af-
rer this phenomenon in the winter period there are substantial changes in the
thermopressure regime of the stratomesosphere, which is evidently attributable
to the migration of high-altitude anticyclones into the polar re gions.
- A spectral analysis which was made indicated tnat approximately such a periodicity
- after the onset of a disturbance is observed in the increase in mean temperature
of the mesosphere. Since during periods of proton flares, accomp anied Uy the in-
trusion of solar corpuscular streams into the earth's atmsphere, substantial per-
turbations were noted in the vertical ozone profile, the conclus ion can be drawn
that during these periods in the upper atmosphere there is a change in the radia-
tion regime. If it is taken into account that the change in the radiation regime
can exert an influence on characteristic atmospheric instability, ways to explain
these effer_ts should be considered. It is probable that the above-mentioned fact
of correlation of winter warmings with solar and geomagnetic disturbances is ex-
plained by these effects. T'lere is also a correlation between 27-day variations of
solar activity and the change in the regime of the stratomesosphe re. An amplitude
- of the pressure variations in the stratosphere with a Feriod of approximately 27
days is predoaiinant. Attempts have been made to attribute this phenomenon to res-
- onance phenomena in the atmosphere. We note that such a periodicity is also observ-
ed in an analysis of changes in the ozone concentration.
Since unifarm series of rocket observations are still relatively short, but none-
theless cover an almost 20-year period, it is possible to establish a correlation
' between the 11-year solar cycle and a similar periodicity in variations of strato-
mesospheric parameters.
It can be assumed that the facts of an increase in mesospheric t emperature with an
- increase in solar activity, a: d ?1so the correlation between geopotential height at
the centers of the win ter circumpolar vortex and the Pacific Ocean anticyclone and
solar activity, have been quite reliably established. It has been found that with
_ an increase in solar activity there is a decrease in the geopoten tial height of
the 10-mb leziel in an anticyclone and an increase in the geopotential height of
this same level at the center of a cyclone. In the summer there is a direct correl-
ation between the level of solar activity and the geopotential height of the 10-mb
Ievel at the center of the anticyclonic vortex.
The nature of the correlation between solar acti.vity and ttie intensity of strato-
spheric formations is also confirmed by the results of investigations of circula-
tion processes. In particular, it was established that during periods of increased
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solar activity of the 11-year cycle the velocity of the zonal flow at the 10-mb
level decreases, whereas meridianality ;ncreases.
Estimates of the contribution of the energy of the polar electrojet to the energy
- of the upper atmosphere have recently appeared.
The computations indicated that during periods of geoma.gnetic storms the earth's
magnetosphere receives 1018 J of energy, which is adequate for the heating of the
atmosphere in the auroral zone at an altitude of 100 km by 90 K, and at an altitude
- of 30-35 km by 10 K. In turn, this can lead to a change in the atmospheric re-
f lection coefficient for long'waves,- characterizing weather processes.
5uch is an incomplete and quite fleeting review of the problems characterizing the
nresent status of the meteorology or the s tratome so sphere. Solution of the problem
of the relationship between processes in the troposphere and in tYe high layers of
the atmosphere in the light of recently accumulaced data is now acquiring special
significance not only for understanding tropospheric cl imate, which we havE alreac3y
mentioned above, but also for solution of the problem of long- and superlong-range
weather forecasts.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Gaygerov, S. S., ISSLEDOVANIYE SINOPTICHESKIKH PRQTSESSOV V VYSOKIKH SLOYAKH
ATMOSFERY (Investigation of Synoptic Processes in the High Layers of the Atmo-
- sphere), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1973.
2. Goody, R. M., FIZIKA STRATOSFERY (Stratospheric P11hysics), Leningrad, Gidro-
meteoizdat, 1958.
3. Kats, A. L., TSIRKULYATSIYA V STRATOSFERE I MEZOSFERE (Circulation in the
the Stratosphere and Mesosphere), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1968.
4. Koshel'kov, Yu, P., TSIRKULYATSIYA I STROYENIYE STRATOSFERY I MEZOSFERY YUZH-
NOGO POLUSHARIYA (Circulation and Structure of the Stratosphere and Mesosphere
in the Southern Hemisphere), Leningrad, Gidrameteoizdat, 1980.
5. Kholton, Dzh. R., DINAMICHESKAYA METEOROLOGIYA STRATOSFERY I MEZOSFERY (Dynam-
ic Meteorology of the Stratosphere and Mesosphere), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1979.
6. Bucha, V., "Possible Mechanism of Solar-Terrestrial Relations," COLLECTED
EXTEND. SUM. CONTRIB., JOINT SYMP., C, IAGA/IAMAP, Joint Assem., Seattle,
Wash. 1977, Boulder, Colo., s. a. 3/I-3/II.
7. Geller, M. A., Avery, S. K., "Calculations of Solar Activity Effects on Planet-
ary Wave Propagation," COLLECTED EXTEND. SUM. CONTFtIB., JOINT SYNIP., C, IAGA/
IAMAP, Joint Assem., Seattle, Wash. 1977, Boulder, Colo., s. a. 611-6/10.
8. Kokin, G. A., "Stunmary of Atmospheric Observations and Investigations in zhe
Altitude Region from 20 to 80 km," REPR. FROM (COSFtin) SPACE RES., Vol XIX,
Perg. Press, Oxford-New York, 1979.
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UDC 551.509.323(470.311)
ON TEEIE PREDICTION OF AIR TEMPERATURE
- Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russi.an IJo 12, Dec 80 pp 14-26
[Article by A. I. Snitkovskiy, candidate of geographical sciences, USSR Hydrometeor-
ological Scientific Research Cen`er, manuseript submitted 13 Jun 80]
jText] Abstract: The author examines the, status
of prediction of the minimum and maximum
temperature for 1-3 days in advance and
the possibility of improving the predic-
tion of air temperature on the basis of the
"model output statistics" (MOS) concept us-
ing regression equations.
In routine forecasting work, due to the lack of hydrodynamic models of grediction
of the minimum and maximum temperatures, a short-range prediction of air tempera-
ture for 1-3 days is prepared by the synoptic method. In the prediction for the
first day advection, transformation and the diurnal variation of air mass tempera-
- ture are taken into account quantitatively [2, 5, 91; for the second and third days
the temperature prediction is prepared for the most part on the basis of general
concepts concerning the nature of development of atmospheric processes in the
middle troposphere and at the ground, and, in particular, on the position and in-
tensity of the high-altitude frontal zone, the resulting possible change in the
pressure field at the ground level, and accordingly, air temperature. Such an ap-
proach to temperature prediction for 48, 60, 72 and 84 hour.s was dictated by the
_ lack of reliable surface pressure prognostic fields for the corresponding times,
as well as the temperature and huniidity fields in the middle and lower troposphere.
The work carried out during recent years for the objectivization of short-range
- forecasting of weather phenomena and elements on the basis of the MOS concept [7,
8, 11, 121 indicates an increiise in the qua].ity of objective forecasts, that their
quality surpasses the quality of synoptic forecasts, and this is manifested par-
- ticularly clearly with an increase in advance time [ll]. These_ objective fore-
casts to a considerable degree are responsible for the increase in the success of
numerical prognostic fields of ineteorological elements, on the basis of which the
initial data used in statistical correlations, objectivization of the choice of
predictors and selection of decision rules are determined.
In this study we will examine the status of prediction of temperature for 1-3 days
and in the example of prediction of minimum and maximum temperatures for Moscow
and Moskovskaya Oblast for 24, 36, 48 and 60 hours we will point out possible
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ways to carry out objectivization and increase the quality of air temperature pre-
diction.
5tatus of Problem
The existing status of prediction of minimum and maximum air temperatures for 24,
- 36, 48, 60, 72 and 84 hours will be examined in the example of routine synoptic
forecasts for Moscow and Moskovskaya Oblast in 1979. We will turn to the data in
Table 1, where we have given the absolute (S) and relative ( E) errors in synoptic
forecasts (S) of temperature for individual seasons of the year. As a comparison,
we have also given evaluations of inertial forecasts (I), in accordance with which
the temperature tomorrow, on the second and third days should be the same as today.
In the third column of the table we have given the standard deviation for tempera-
ture (d) obtained from daily m.inimum and maximum temperatures averaged for sea-
sons of the year. The relative error E_J/ d given in the table is indicative for
a comparison of the synoptic and inertial forecasts for different times and is con-
ve!~.ient for subsequent comparison of the relative errors in the prediction and in-
2rria of temperature at different stations. In order to obtain a,& and Lrthe ac-
+:ual temperature was averaged using observational data for 30 meteorological sta-
tions in Moscow and Moskovskaya Oblast and the predicted temperature was repre-
sented as the mean value of the anticipated temperature gradation (the tempera-
ture values in the terms "local," "in part of a territory," "in clearings" etc.
- were included in the predicted temperature with a weight of 1/3).
Table 1
Evaluation of Predictions of Mi.nimum and Maximum Air Temperatures for 24, 36, 48,
60, 72 and 84 Hours for Moscow and Moskovskaya Oblast and Their Comparison With
Inertial Forecasts in 1979
.
3
4
i
2
t
24 k r) ' 48 Y
-
72 K
36 Y I bO K
-
84 l 5
.
- I
3~_lal
1
z
I
~
3
I-
6
c j
4.;
I j
i,a;o,3o12,s:o.:4 2,9
~~,sZ, .~,2
2,1
0.46
3,4
~~,ss
3,6
0.72
11 ~
2 3,Q,; 2 3,E O.S4' 4.i,
~
U,'J6
2.6
0.56
4,0
0,79
4,6
0,92
7
C'
3.0
l,
#~0,43I1,1 ,+),70!2.3
,
0,761 :3,1
l,i
0.62
2.4
0.3�",
2,~Y
0,94
ll
2.~I,Q,ig':~,4;1.1313,6
1,19l
2.3
0.78
3.3
l.td6
3,7
1,21
g
C.
4,3
1.710,4' j2,JIO,62; l,6
'
0,66 4.9
I.i
0,39
2,2
0,52
1.:,
Q,;~6
ll
2,2 0,5fit2,60,66
2,9
0,72I
2.0
0,47
2,9
0,67
~5.5
0,78
g
C
I�I
7,6
2,3~0.'714.110.5514.7
i
S~Ji 7
4
U
96! 8
0
I;0
0,64 3,7
I
u7;
2.2
3
1
'),47
55
0
3.1
4
6
0,53
0
81
3.9
5
3
0.69
1
02
10
C. `
4,9
,
1
,
,
,
1
1,7 ~0.39I 2~0,61:~3, I
,
0.67 4,7
,
1,9
,
),-49
.
2.8
.
0 65
.
3,2 1
,
0.13
L1
2.~5 0.61, 4,2I0 .9U! 4,8
0,99
1,c
;).�i'.!
3,7
0,33I
4.4 I
0.93
KEY:
1.
SeaSOn
6.
Spring
2.
Forecasts
7.
Summer
3.
Minimum temperature
8.
Actumn
4.
Maximum teruperature
9.
Winter
5.
hours
10.
Year
C = synoptic
M = inertial
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An analysis of the data in Table 1 makes it possible to draw the following con-
clusions:
in general, synoptic forecasts for 1-3 days are appreciably better than inertial
forecasts, but in months when the inertia is great the quality of the synoptiC
forecasts is not much higher than for inertial fcrecasts;
the absolute error in predicting temperature for 48 and 72 hours in comparison
with the error in prediction for 24 hours on the average is greater by a factor of
1.6 and 1.8, whereas the absolute error in predicting maximum temperature for 60
and 72 hours in comparison with the error in prediction for 36 hours on the average
is greater by a factor of 1.5 and 1.7;
due to the greater variabil ity of nighttime temperature in comparison with day-
time temperature in the autunm and winter the absolute error in predicting the
minimum temperature for 24, 48 and 72 hours is greater than the absolute error in
predicting maximum temperature for 36, 60 and 84 ltours.
To be sure, an analysis of 365 cases of the prediction of minimtnn and maximum tem-
peratures for 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 and 84 hours (Table 1) possibly does not fully re-
flect the quality of temperature forecasts, but during the last five years routine
evaluations of temperature forecasts for 1-3 days iz advance for Moscow and Moskov-
skaya Oblast indicate their stability at the level 87-83% in accordance with the
current Instructions on the Evaluation of Forecasts [6].
How good are the synoptic forecasts of teiuperature whose evaluations are given in
Table 1? According to the data in [11], the absolute error in objective forecasts
of the minimum temperature in the United States (winter of 1975/76, checked on the
basis of data for 126 stations) on the basis of the MOS concept for 24 and 48 hours
is 2.3 and 2.9�C; for the maximum temperature for 36 and 60 hours 2.5 and 3.1�C
respectively. (Unfortunately, the literature pertaining to evaluations of tempera-
ture forecasts in the United States do not give the relative forecasting errors -
and this naturally affords no possibility for a sufficiently adequate statistical
analysis.) However, it can be seen from the comparison that the synoptic forecasts -
for Moscow for the first day are better than in the United Srates, whereas for 48 -
and 60 hours they are inferior.
In France, where an objective forecast of the minimum air temperature is accom-
plished in accordance with the "perfect prognosis" (PP) concept for seven cities
_ in the country with an advance time up to 96 hours, the results of forecasts for
the first day also are inferior to synoptic forecasts for Moscow, but on the sec=
ond and third da.y are close [10]. For example, the absolute error in objective
forecasfis in the summer of 1979 for 24 hours was 1.6, inertia 1.8�C, relative error -
0.65; for 48 and 72 hours the absolute error in forecasts was 1.7 and 2.1�C, iner- _
- tia 2.0 and 2.3�C, relative error 0.68 and 0.84. It must be remembered that in
France objective forecasts use only information on tropospheric geopotential fields.
From a comparison of evaluations of temperature forecasts in the Soviet Union,
United States and France the conclusion can be drawa that the objectivization of
temperature forecasting already after 24 hours makes it possible to enhance the
capabilities of the weather forecaster. -
In the early 1970's specialists at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center undertook an
attempt to objectivize the prediction of nighttime (for 0300 hours) air temperature
for 24 hours on the basis of the current hydrodynamic model of pressure field
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forecasting [1]. The prediction was prepared at the points of intersection of a
regular grid with a 300-km interval. The absolute error in predicting nighttime
temperature cited in [1] is about 3�C, considerably greater than the absolute
errors of synoptic temperature forecasts, and naturally such a forecast cannot be
used in operational work.
During recent years another attempt was undertaken at the objective forecasting of
air temperature. Beginning with mid-1979, on an experimental basis, specialists
at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center almost daily have used a synoptic-hydro-
dynamic model for predicting pressure at the ground level, a hydrodynamic forecast
of the geopotential field at the 850-mb level and a model of the Crajectories of
air particles at these two surfaces in preparing air temperature forecasts at the
ground level for 2100 hours on the current day, 0300 hours on the next night and
1500 hours on the next day at points of grid intersection with an interval of 300
r:m [5, 9]. Our comparison of objective forecasts for 24 and 36 hours with the ac-
tual temperatures at Moscow at 0300 and 1500 hours indicates that the absolute
- eY or in objective forecasts for the period November 1979-April 1980 for 24 hours
is 3.2�C, for 36 hours 3.6�C. During this same period of time the errors in syn-
Optic forecasts were: for 24 hours 2.0�C, for 36 hours 2.1�C. What is the
reason for the low quality of the objective temperature forecasts? In our opinion,
there are several. First, due to insignificant errors in the pressure field at
the earth there can be considerable errors in finding the initial points of the
trajectories of air particles and the use of inean coefficients for conversion from
the velocity of the geostrophic wind to the actual wind does not reflect the real
wind pattern at the earth. Secand, the use of inadequately close correlations be-
tween the dew point spread at the 850-mb level and the quantity of lower-level
clouds for determining the diurnal temperature variation. In addition, the low
level of objective temperature forecasts is also related to the quality of objec-
tive analysis of temperature and humidity.
A common shortcoming of the mentioned models of objective forecasting of tempera-
_ ture [1, 5] is the absence of forecasts of extremal temperatures in these models.
If the difference between the maximum temperature and the temperature at 1500 hours
is relatively small, averaging 1-3�C, the difference between the minimum tempera-
ture and the temperature at 0300 hours is relatively great. In autumn, winter and
_ spring in the temperate latitudes, when the temperature minimum is at 0600-0900
hours, the difference attains 4-60C. Accordingly, in numerical models for the pre-
diction of extremal temperatures it is evidently necessary to use statistical cor-
relations for determining the minimum and maximum temperatures.
"Sifting" of Predictors and Evaluation of Regression Equations
In order to include independent predictors in the regression equation we carried
out "sifting" of a large group of predictors using the algorithm set forth in [4],
tlie sense of which is as follows.
In the interval L we select the maximum (in absolute value) paired correlation co-
efficient between the predictant and predictors r(L) and tY!e sequence number T of
this predictor (z = l, 2,...,m) is stored. Then weTfind the paired correlation co-
efficient rjT between the selected predictor T and the others.
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After this we carry out orthogonalization of the system of values of the predic-
tors relative to the predictor T selected in the interval L:
_ic)
A tc-i 1) -A x(l) _ rcI 1
Xi1
T
where J xj~ -;-I) - xi, - xi. j = 1, 2, , . . , k, -
z are the values of the variables in deviations from the means; ~ and aT are the
standard deviations.
As a result of this procedure
_\xtc->> _ 0.
Ir
Then the statistical characteristics are again computed for the already transformed
orthogonal predictors. The paired correlation coefficients between the predictant
and orthogonal predictors are computed, the maximum r(L+l) is selected and the num- -
ber of the predictor is again stored. All these operaElons are carried out L times.
In each interval L the multiple correlation coefficient R(L) = D~L) and the ac-
cumulated total dispersion of the predictant, caused by the use of the selected
predictors,
UM = iZlr rz'-'~. . . . :r
, (2)
and also the difference of the accumulated dispersions in adjacent intervals
S _ D(t) - Di t
are computed.
If the value (3) is less than the stipulated thresholci (in our case 0.03), the
computations stop.
(3)
Thus, there i:: a ranking of predictors and thereafter the contributioi: of the -
predictors to the dispersion of the predictant is determined. -
After the ranking of predictors a linear multiple regression is constructed using
the algorithm in [3], in which the number of predictors ensuring the best quality
of construction of the regression is determined.
The regression is constructed using the method of ordered minimizing of risk, the
essence of which is as follows.
- In the ordered set of predictors the least squares method is used in constructing
a regression for 1, 2, 3,...k predictors. Assimte that OC Q are regression coeffic-
ients found by the least squares method. For each constructed regression we ascer- -
tain its quality evaluation of the I(k) parameter:
k \ : (4)
l(k!= z~-~` ) PtX, N,l dxd\,.
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where I(k) is ttie mean risk; y is the predictant; x=(xl, x2,...,xk) is the vec-
tor of predictors; P(x,y) is the joint density of the distribution of probabilities
x and y.
It is known from theory [3] tizat with the probability 1-)7(0.~~) R e-a,;.>R k(R) P(R) R-= dR, ~
R
Ne = N. n �f, k, S dQ S
where No is the uumber of photons in a laser pulse, n is the number of pulses,
Ot(Xo), a:(i1) are the coefficients of atmospheric absorption at the laser
uavelength a o and the shifted radiation a; kl(A ) is a coefficient taking into
lccount the losses in absorption and reflection in the receiving optical system;
'j(A) is the quantum effectiveness uf the phbtodetector (taking into account the
collection af electrons from the photocathode); S is the effective area of the
receiving unit; d d/d.2 is the differential scattering section of the investigated
gas; k2R is the lidar geometrical factor; /O (R) is the concentration of the inves-
tibated matter (the number of molecules per unit volume); R1 and R2 are the limits
of the investigated volume of the atmosphere.
Tlie minimum detectable concentration (NIDC) of molecules of any impurity is depen-
clent on the required reliability of detection, which is determined by the statis-
_ tical signal-to-noise ratio (S/N). In the registry of the signal by the method of
counting of "photons" the S/N ratio is determined using the following expression:
S/N = Ne/~ tde + 2 (Nbacl: + Ndark)s (2)
where Nback, Ndark are the noise signai in the photoelectrons, caused by the back-
ground of the sky, and the dark current of the photomultiplier during the time of
measurement of the CLS signal T= nt, Q,= 2(R2 - R1)c is the time of ineasurement of
a signal allocated to one laser pulse, c is the speed of light.
The number of photoelectrons caused by radiation of the sky background is found
from the expression
- N kO.1 r, (1) Ar.SQ TB (3)
back - h ~
~
where lc( is a coefficient taking into account the total losses of the background
radiation in the optical part of the measurement unit; Q~ is the width af the reg-
- istered part of the spectrum;S2 is the solid angle of collection of sky airglow;
B(T) is the spec*_ral density of the energy brightness of the sky background; h-V
is the energy of a photon in the registered part of the spectYum.
In order r.o determine the MDC of the measured contaminant it is necessary to stip-
ulate the required S/N ratio (or the required accuracy in measurement). Expression
(2) is used in determining the necessary minimum number of photoelectrons Nemin�
If it is assumed that the concentration P in the limits of the sounded sector R2 -
Rl is constant, we can then write NoR=
R; '
[M N H min ] /0 MDC = - ~ R R N, nr ki (i.) S~ ~ �
e � e-1 k�: (R) dR (4)
R,
The response and effective radius of the CLS system are detPrminecl for the mosc
part by tlie optimum choice of the working parameters of dll the units in the system
and ttie possi.bilities of their technical rea]ization.
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Laser. The principal parameters determining the effectiveness of excitation of the
CLS spectrum are the power and wavelength of the light radiation.
It can be seen from exprPSSions (1)-(3) that the received signal is amplified with
- an increase in the energy of the laser pulse and the number of pulses (total radi-
ation energy). The wavelength of radiation does not enter in direct form into these
equations, in the last analysis determining the MDC value, but to a strong degree
it governs such parameters as the quantum effectiveness of the photodetector, the
scattering cross section of molecules and the in[ensity of the background glow of
the day sky. For the photocathodes the maximum of the quantum yield falls in the
near UV and the visible region.s of the spectrum and its value for the best models
of photomultipliers attains 0.3. In the red region of the spectrum (first harmon-
ics of a ruby laser and a neodymium glass laser) ~ (~1) is tenths of a percent or
less.
The CLS section in the absence of resonance conditions, as is well known [S], is
proportional to the fourth power of the frequency of scattered light. In the range
of wavelengths shorter than 300 nm the spectral density of the brightness of the
sky background B('l) is virtually equal to zero due to absorption by ozone in the
upper atmosphere, but in the region shorter than 250 nm strong absorption by at-
rnospheric oxygen bpgins to exert an effect. Accordingly, fcr increas4-.ng the re-
sponse of the laser to CLS and in order to be able to work in the daytime it is
better to use lasers radiating in the range of wavelengths 250-300 nm.
At the present time solid-state ruby pulsed lasers (second harmonic) and alumo-
yttrium garnet lasers (alloyed with neodytnium) (second, third and fourth harmon-
ics), as well as Excimer lasers [10], satisfy the enumerated requirements most
completely.
Receiving unit. In accordance with equation (1), the received CLS signal is pro--
- portional to the effective area of the receiving unit and therefore it is selected
as large as possible and is limited both by design considerations and the pos-
sibility of matching with the employed spectral instrument. In actuality the di-
- ameter of the receiving unit in known apparatus varies in the range 0.3-1 m[3,
9].
Unit for selecting spectral lines. The principal requirements imposed on such an
apparatus include a high luminosity, a high transmission in the working range of
wavelengths and a high degree of suppression of scattered light for the main laser
frequency ~0. In the real atmosphere scattering at this frequency is caused by
aerosols. Its value with a range of visibility of about 5 km exceeds the molec-
ular scattering value in the visible and UV spectral regions by a factor of ap-
proximately 20-100. Accordingly, for the registry of a contaminant with a rela-
tive concentration)D it is necessary to have suppression by at least a factor of
105/p . It therefore follows that for measuring concentrations of 10 mill'1 the
suppression of scattered light at the nondrifting frequency must be about 1010.
Atmospheric precipitation, dust particles, etc., increasing the scatteriag, lead
to the need fo r increasing this value. The required suppression can be ensured by
a set of narrow-band rilters, their combination with spectral instruments, or by
a spectral ins trument with triple monochromatization.
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Photodetector. Ln the successive registry of contaminants use is made of photo-
multipliers having a high quantum yield in the working part of the spectrum, a
- high amplification factor necessary for the registry of each photoelectron
knocked from the photocathode and having the maximum possible time resolution. An
important advantage of the CLS method is the possibility fer simultaneous regis-
try of all or several contaminants present in the investigated volume of the at-
mosphere. In order to exploit this advantage it is necessary to use multichannel
photodetectors with the corresponding electronic circuitry.
System for the registry and processing of data. In order to exclude the influence
of instability of the source of excitation of the CLS spectra, the atmospheric
parameters along the sounded path and the instabilities of the apparatus on the
accuracy in measuring the absolute concentration of different substances in the
remote registry of CLS spectra use is made of reldtive measurements employing the
_Line of atmospheric nitrogen as a concentration reference point. This is accom-
plished most simply in a multichannel system for the registry of spectra. In addi-
tioa, the multichannel system makes possible a substantial reduction in measure-
ilent time and an increase in the effectiveness of use of the laser capabilities.
The reliability of the results of ineasuring small CLS signals is increased
with the accumulation of readings of the series of laser pulses and therefore
the registry system (both single- and multichannel) must have a unit for accumul-
ating or integrating the photodetector signals. The registry system must ensure
measurement of interfering signals (the dark current of the photodetector, sky
background, atmospheric fluorescence and fluorescence of impurities, etc.).
The data processing system is usually assigned the functions of control of the
- lidar components, computation and documentation of the results of ineasurements
by means of a digital printout, monitoring of parameters of t}ie apparatus and
also implementation of different measurement programs. Its structure and specific
embodiment are determined by the range of tasks assigned to the entire system for
_ monitoring the sources of contamination in the atmosphere.
Experimental Investigations
At the Spectroscopy Institute USSR Academy of Sciences specialists have created
a mobile apparatus for remote monitoring of the composition of industrial ef-
fluent (CLS lidar) in accordance with joint technical specifications prepared
by specialists of the Institute of Applied Geophysics of the State Covsnittee on Hy-
drometeorology. The apparatus is mounted in the interior of a PAZ-672 bus [1]. Its
distinguishing characteristics, making it different from similar systems [3, 9],
are: a) the use oF laser radiation with a wavelength of 266 nm, which made it pos-
sible to carry out measurements during the daytime; b) use of a spectrograph with
tr.iple monochromatization; c) presence of two registry systems three-channel
for a photomultiplier and multichannel�television system (MTS). Both systems oper-
ate in a photon counting regime; d) registry of the profile of the contaminant
along the sounded path on a display; e) automation of the outpu*_ of wavelengths in
the spectrograph and processing of the measurement results uGing a 15 VSM-5 pro-
grammable calculator. As a result of careful processing of individual lidar com-
ponents [2] it was possible to improve soma of it5 parameters. The quantity of
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scattered spectrograph light is reduced to 10-12. The inverse line dispersion was
reduced to 2.5 A/mm. The system for registry from the photomultiplier has a mean
_ noise value of 1 reading per 105 laser pulses.
The MTS with respect to its response (in one channel) is inferior to the photo-
multiplier system due to a lower quantum yield of the image converter photocath-
ode (5-9X versus 25% for the selected photomultiplier models) and high noise.
The purpose of the experimental measurements made at industrial enterprises was:
clarification of the interfering factors limiting the fundamental possibilities
of the method;
measurement of the contaminating substances in the atmosphere and industrial ef-
fluent.
In the process of ineasurements with a lidar in the atmospheric CLS spectra there
was registry of a continuous background caused by atmospheric fluorescence. It was
pointed out in [7], in pa.rticular, that when working with an argon laser (458-515
nm) there was fluorescence of atmospheric aerosols in a broad spectral range. Atmo-
spheric fluorescence can also be caused by some contaminating substances S02,
N02, petroleum products and other organic matter present in the form of vapor and
aerosol. However, reports on observations of atmospheric fluorescence under the
influence of radiation in the near-W spectral region could not be found. Accord-
ingly, measurements were made of the fluorescence level and a study was made of
the distribution of its intensity by wavelengths with excitation by the two wave-
lengths most preferable for reuiote sounding of the atmosphere by the CLS method:
266 and 347 nm. ihe total fluorescence was not determined, but its intensity was
neasured at different points of the working range of wavelengths. It was found
that the intensity of the fluorescence spectrum increases smoothly toward the
long-wave end of the working range. At the shift frequency 3000 cm 1 it is approx-
imately 3 times greater than at a frequency of 500 em 1(the intensity of scatter-
ed light, on the other hand, increases with approach to the exciting line). Thc
measured values of the atmospheric fluorescence level in the frequency range 2000-
3000 cm 1 are given in Table 1.
The intensity of fluorescence in Table 1 and elsewhere is given in the equivalent
concentration of nitrogen. By this is meant such a concentration of uniformly dis-
tributed nitrogen with which the CLS signal is equal to the fluorescence signal.
In order to facilitate a comparison of the measurement results at different wave-
lengths they were all scaled to an identical width of the discriminated spectral
sector, equal to 10 cm 1. The table shows that the fluorescence of atmospheric pre-
cipitation is more intense when working with the second harmonic of a ruby laser,
whereas for the fourth harmonic of a YAG laser the fluorescence noise is less.
Measurements of the fluorescence level were made imder different atmospheric con-
ditions and were separated by large time intervals. Accordingly, Table 1 gives the
limits of the averaged values. Using the already i.ntroduced value of the equiva-
lent concentration of nitrogen)o eQuiv it is easy to compute the signal strength
Nfl in the photoelectrons caused by fluorescence. For this purpose in equation
(1) it is necessary to introduce the factor Q-WOrk110 cm 1, taking into account
the width of the working spectral interval AYWOrk in cm 1. In most cases when the
ratio of the concentration of the fluorescent impurity Pequiv to the concentra-
tion of the measured gas)o does not change within the limits of the sounded
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sector R2- R1, Nfl can be expressed through the CLS signal, Np of the measured
gas in tFie folluwing way:
Nfl _ Qvwork Pe uiv N (S)
10 ~odrel e'
where ~ el = d~/~ dO~ is the relative CLS section of the measured gas.
d,R d5~ N2
Thus, the S/N ratio during fluorescence deteriorates in comparison with (2) and
can be expressed as follows:
(S/N)fl - Ne/ Ne + 2(Ndark + Nback + Nfl) (6)
Using expressions (5) and (6) and the measurement results given in Table 1 it is
possible to estimate the sensitivity of the CLS method in sounding of the atmo-
sphere, taking into account the interfering effect Qf.f_luorescence. For example,
with ~lY= 30 cm 1, accumulation of the signal for 104 laser pulses and a S/N ratio
2 ~he response is limited for NH3 to 40 mill-1 and for S02 to 15 mill-1 (without
taking into account the resonance amplification of the CLS section).
A fluorescence of the effluent from a heat and power plant was also discovered.
The neasured fluorescence values as a function of the type of fuel used at the
heat and power station are given in Table 2.
The measurements also indicated the presence of fluorescence of effluent from cars
and trucks. For example, the level of fluorescence of the exhaust gases from a
diesel engine was 500 mill-1 and its spectrum extended from 1500 cm-1 and beyond
into the red region.
Table 1
Level o.f Atmospileric Fluorescence in the
Range 2000-3000 cm 1,0 V= 10 cm'1
lJavelength, Equivalent concentration of
mm nitrogen in mill'1
fog, rain, snow
347 300-500
266 20-100
without
precipita-
tion
Table 2
Intensity of Fluorescence of Effluent
of Heat and Power Plants as Function
of Type oi Fuel Employed
Wavelength, I:quivalent concpntration
nm of nitrogen in tnill-1
mazut, coal gas
gas
50-200 532 500-1000 100-300 -
20-50 266 300-1000 200-500 20-50
The htllC for contaminants distributed uniformly in the atmosphere and atmospheric
components were estimated using measurethents in a special cell and directly in
the atmosphere.
The following results were obtained when determining the MIDC f_or some gases in a
specially fabricated cell with a length of 12 m set up at. a distance of 100 m: for
- C6H6 10 mill-1, NIi3 100 mill'1, kerosene vapors 0.1 mill'1. The low re-
sponse in determining CO is attributable to the inadequate selectivity of the
spectral instrument, as a result of which it is not possible to separate noise
from the vibrational-rotational structure of N2. Figure 1 shows the relative
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positioning of the CO line and the N2 structure. The dashed line represents the
instrument fur,ction of the spectral apparatus and the three-channel system for
registry f.rom the photomultiplier. A high response for kerosene vapors was ob-
tained with their registry in the fluorescence spectrum in the region 270-300 nm
(it was not possible to discriminate the CLS line due to the high fluorescence
level). We should note some characteristies- and difficulties in making the cell
measurements. Ip particular, these include the fluorescence of the cell windows,
absorption by the cell walls, difficulties in admitting the gas and taking
samples.
It was established that in meas urements of C02 in the atmosphere for R= 100 m
and Q R= 20 m the MDC value was 50 mill'1.
Meas urements in the plumes of effluent were made at heat and power plants operat-
ing on different fuQls (coal, mazut, gas). The distance to the muth of the
stacks was 200 m. The cross section of the plume was 10-15 m.
In our first tests [1] we note d a strong absorption of laser radiation in the work-
ing region of frequencies (266 nm) by the solid particles, aeroso].s and S02 gas
present in the plume of effluent. In cold weather the plume became "milky" and
translucent due to the formation of aerosols during the condensation of water
vapor both for laser radiatlon and for simlight, as was easily observed visually.
_ One of the problems solved at heat and power plants was the separate estimation
of the absorption of laser radiation by S02 gas and solid particles. Since ab-
sorption by dust and soot was virtually nonselective, by two-frequency soundtng
it is possible to measure the absorption caused by SOZ.
The sounding was carried out at wavelgngths 266 and 532 nm. Radiation at 532 nm is _
not absorbed by S02 [11] and NO 2[8]. In this experiment the influence of water
aerosols could be neglected because the measurements were made in warm, dry weather
(3-17 September 1979).
rigure 2 shows oscillograms of the signal of scattered radiation at 266 and 532
nm. It can be seen that the plume of effluent is completely opaque for radiation
at 266 nm. The mean S02 concent ration measured at this time (at a wavelength of
532 nm) was 750 mill'1. Computations made in [11] using the absorption coeffic-
ients for S02 at a wavelength of 266 nm confirmed that with such a S02 concentration
the radiation of the fourth harmonic of a YAG laser (266 nm) should be completely
absorbed. The dashed curve in Figures 2 and 3 shows the shape of the signal for a
case when there is no absorption in the plume.
Figure 3 shows oscillograms of signals at the nonshifted frequency 266 nm for the
effluen*_ of a heat and power plant operating on coal and gas. It can be seen that
the absorption by effluent of a heat and power station operating on gas is not
oreat. In this case the S02 concentration, measured by the sunlight absorption
Method, was 30 mill'1. The S02 concentration was measured by this method at wave-
lengths 303.8 and 305.0 nm, at which the absorption coefficient has extremal val-
ues. A concentration of 30 mill-1 was not registered from the CLS spectra; this
can mean that there is no strong resonance increase in the S02 section for radi-
ation at 266 nm, as was asserted in [6].
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In addition to measurement of sulfur gas, attempts were made to detect NOZ, HZS
- and CH4. However, signals were not reliably registered. Accordingly, it is only
possible to speak of an upper limit of the content of these gases in the plume
- of effluent, determined by the response of the apparatus, that is, the content
of the mentioned gases was lower than 100-500 mi11-1. Such a relatively low
lidar concentration response when sounding the effluent fram heat and power
- plants is attributable to the low effective extent of the sounded layer, which
due to the absorption of laser radiation at 266 nm by S02 gas was only 1-2 m,
instead of the 10-15 m extent of the plume.
When making measurements at the stack rwuth the effluent of contaminating sub-
stances can be determined using the expression
Q = cV,
where c is the mean concentration, V is the volumetric rate of gas escape.
Estimates indicated that the discrepancies between the measured values of s ulfur
&as effluent and the computed values obtained with allowance for the composition
of the fuel did not exceed a factor of 2. This discrepancy falls in the limits
of computation accuracy.
In order to evaluate the possibilities of ineasuring effluent from cars and trucks
by the CLS remote spectroscopy method we carried out measurements of the exhaust
gases of a KRAZ vehicle with a diesel engine. The distance to the vehicle was R
= 100 m, the direction of the exhaust was perpendicular to the laser ray, passing
approximately 5 m f rom the side of the vehicle. CO with a concentration 1500 mill-1
and SOZ with a concentration of 200 mill'1 were registered in the exhaust.
N= Scattering in telescope
-laccemr SMum Pjume
!D mrntcnen~ t
- -
' - ~
V
I
J oM ~~a;+c~ nsec
Fig. l. Relative positioning of vibration- Fig. 2. Oscillugrams of signals of
- al line of CO and vibrational-rotational scattered radiation for 266 nm (a) and
structure of N2. 532 nm (b) obtained with two-f requency
sounding of plume of effluent from
.c~c~~~,ca Plume lieat and Power Plant.
~ ~ mtnrt,ront T
Fig. 3. Oscillograms of signals ut nonshifted fre-
- quency 266 nm showing depenZance of laser radiation
,
,,absorption on type of fuel (content in 502 efflu-
1~~-'

aaM,~zo Hc~ nsec ' ent). a) gas, b) coal.
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Summary
1. An examination of the characteristics of the CLS method made it possible to
ev8luate its possibilities applicable to remote detection of gas effluent of in-
dustrial enterprises and formulate the principal requirements on the apparatus.
The CLS lidar created on the basis of these requirements is in no way inferior
in its characteristics to similar foreign apparatus, and with respect to a number
of technical solutions is superior to them.
2. In the course of lidar tests for the first time there was found to be fluor-
escence of the real atmosphere and the gas effluent of heat and power plants,
cars and trucks. Its intensity was measured under different atmospheric condi-
tions and with the use of different fuels. This phenomenon fundamentally limits
the analytical possibilities of the method. At the same time, it was demonstrated
that careful selection of the laser radiation wavelength can lessen this influence.
- 3; Experimental operation of the CLS lidar revealed the possibility of detecting
at distances 100-200 m different gases with the following concentrations: C02
200 mill-1, NH3 100 mill'1, CO 1000 mill-1, SOZ 300-500 mill-1. The
discrepancies with the computed values of the concentrations in the effluent of
heat and power plants, obtained with allowance for the composition of the fuel and
the combustion regime, do not exceed a factor of 2, which falls in the limits of
computation accuracy.
The response of the developed CLS lidar can be substantially increased by improv-
ing its energy characteristics (use of a more powerful laser, coating of optical -
parts, improvement of matching of the receiving telescope with the spectrograph).
With the present-day status of optical and laser instrument making the energy
characteristics of the lidar can be realistically increased by a factor of ap-
proximately 1000.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Vayner, Yu. G., Kuzin, M. Ya., Malyavkin, L. P., Sil'kis, E. G., Tanaka, K. V.,
Titov, V. D., Combined Scattering Lidar for the Analysis of Industrial Atmo-
spheric Contaminations," KVANTOVAYA ELEKTRONIKA (Quantum Electronics), 6, No
3, 1979.
2. Vayner, Yu. G., Malyavkin, L. P., Sillkis, E. G., Titov, V. D., OTCHET 0 NIR
"RAZRABOTKA USOVERSHENSTVOVANNOGO MAKET LIDARA KR I METODIKI DISTANTSIONNYKH
IZMERENIY GAZOVYKH VYBROSOV PROMYSHLENNYKH PREDPRIYATIY VBLIZI USTtYA DYMOVYKH
TRUB" (Report on the Scientific RQsearch Project "Development of an Improved
Model of a Combined Scattering Lidar and a Method for Remote Measurements of
Gas Effluent of Industrial Enterprises Near the Mouth of Stacks ISAN,
= Troitsk-Moscow, 1979.
3. Vetokhin, S. S., Gulakov, I. R., Pertsev, A. N., Reznikov, I. V., ODNOELEK-
TRONNYYE FOTOPRIYErINIKI (Single Electron Photodetectors), Moscow, Atomizdat,
1979.
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4. Nazarov, I. M., Fridman, Sh. D., Rozhdestvenskaya, V. N., Zhuravlev, V. F.,
- "Determination of Mass Structure of Aerosols in the Plumes of Industrial
Enterprises With the Use of a Lidar," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteor-
ology and Hyclrology), No 3, 1980.
5. Sushchinskiy, M. M., SPEKTRY KOMBINATSIONNOGO RASSEYANIYA MOLEKUL I KRISTALLOV
(Cotnbination Scattering Spectra of Molecules and Crystals), Moscow, Nauka,
1969.
6. Torgovichev, V. A., Klimova, T. N., "Preresonance Amplification of Combination
- Scattering of a Number of Gaseous Components of che Atmosphere During Lidar
Sounding in the Middle W Spectral Region," V VSESOYUZNYY SIMPOZIUM PO LAZER-
NOMU T AKUSTICHESKOMU ZONDIROVANIYU ATMOSFERY: TEZISY DOKLADOV. CH. II (Fifth
All-Union Symposium on Laser and Acoustic Souiiding of the Atmosphere: Summaries
of Reports. Part II), Tomsk, 1978.
7. Gelbwachs, J., Birnbaum, M,, "Fluorescence of Atmcspheric Aerosols and Lidar
Implications," APPL. OPTICS, Vol 12, No 10, 1973.
8. Hall, T. C., Blacet, F. E., et al., "Separation of Absorption Spectra of N02
and N204 in the Range of 2400-5000 A," J. CHEM. PHYS., Vol 20, No 11, 1952.
9. Hirschfeld, T., Klaner, S., "Remote Raman Spectroscopy as a Pollution Radar
Optical Spectrum," July/August 63, 1970.
10. Uchino, 0., Maeda, M., Hirono, M., "Application of Excimer Laser to Laser-
Radar Observations of the Upper Atmsphere," IEEE. J. QUANTUM ELECTRONICS,
Vol QE-15, No 10, 1979.
11. Warneck, P., Marto, F. F., Sullivan Y. 0., "Ultraviolet Absorption of 502:
Dissociation Energies of S02 and 50~," J. CHEM. PHYS., Vol 40, 1964.
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UDC 551.501:519.24
METHOD FOR THE INTERPOLATIQN OF DATA FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 80 pp 48-53
[Article by V. Ye. Lagun, V. F. Romanov, candidate of physical and mathematical sci-
_ ences, V. A. Safronov, and N. P. Smirnov, doctor of geographical sciences , Arctic
and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute, manuscript submitted 11 Apr 80]
[Text] Abstract: Z`he article gives tl:e results of nwner-
ical experiments for studying the accuracy and
filtering properties of different interpolation
methods in model and real fields. This makes it
possible to select the method most acceptable
for the creation of the initial network neces-
sary fo r a spline approximation. A method is
proposed for interpolation of data from aero-
logical sounding of the atmosphere based on a
comb ination of the finite elements and spline ap-
proximation methods. The method is applicable in
the processing of aerological information of the
"POLEKS- Sever- 79" experiment.
Investigation of the large-scale interaction between the atmosphere and ocean and
- evaluation of the relative contribution of "subgrid" processes to the energy ba1-
ance for their parameterization in models of global circulation and clima.te are
_ among the principal purposes of field experiments under the POLEKS program [13].
In the formulation of a theory of climate as a mean relative,.yto a set of syr,optic
records the emphasis must be on investigation of the structure, energy character-
istics and influence exerted on the mean fields by synoptic diszt}rb}ahces 3;n the
atmosphere.
The aerological informa.tion collected in the course of a field experiment as a ba-
sis for further analysis consists of data from radiosonde measurements of the at-
mosphere, which is carried out at aerolo gical stations, and also an weather ships
and on the ships carrying out the field experiment. The exis-ting network of aero-
logical stations and expeditionary observation facilities do not make it possible
to carry out measurements over sea areas with a spatial discreteness of less than
600 km.
Even when computing the advective energy influxes integral for the area of the ex-
- periment on the basis of regularly schedul.ed data such a discreteness is inade-
quate for explicit allowance for processes of a synoptic scale. Synoptic
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- disturbances are "subgrid" and cannot but introduce errors into the i L,gral eval-
uations.
In order to investibate synoptic processes in the aCmosphere it is necessary Chat,
- the total duration of the observations and the extent of the experimental polygon
= correspond to the values of the characteristic temporal and spatial scales of
global circulation. In addition, the spat ial-temp oral discreteness of the observa-
tions must be adequate for an explicit description of synoptic disturbances.
It follows from what has been said that it is necessary to develop methods for
interpolation of data from the existing network of observations to the points of
intersection of a more detailed grid. A qualitative analysis of the system of
equations shows that a 12-hour discretPness of observations is adequate for de-
scribing the evolution of synoptic processes. Thio makes it pc~~sible to emphasize
spatial interpolation.
Tho fields obtained as a result of interpolation must be smooth and retain the
;:rincipal statistical properties of the meteorological elements, to a minimum
clistorting the harmontcs with scales of the processes to be studied in the spa-
tial spectrum of the fields to be interpolated.
The methods of optimum and polynomial [8] interpolation are the most important
of the linear interpolation methods used in meteorology. It was noted in [2] that
a f undamental shortcomi.ng of the polynomial method is an arbitrariness in the
choice of the polynomials regardless of the properties of tlie meteorological
fields. Being freE of this shortcoming, optimum interpolation requires the stip-
ulation of the statistical structure of the field, which is difficult for regions
where field experiments are carried out which are poorly supplied with information.
During recent years work has been carried out on development of a method for rep-
resenting meteorological fields using the spline functions method [1]. Being a
solution of the variational problem, splines give not only a smootlt and consis-
tent approximation, but also have a clear physical interpretation: in splines
there is realization of a minimum of the potent,ial energy of some mechanical sys-
tem [6]. [In general, it is unclear how it is related to the a.ctual potential en-
ergy of a meteorological (synoptic) process.] The latter circumstance advantageous-
~ ly dis criminates spline interpolation from other polynomial methods.
The classical formulation of interpolation by splines is the interpolation of a
gr.id f unction [6]. Accordingly, a necessary preparatory stage for the use of
splines is the creation of an initial grid region. Tre observation points in a
field zxperiment O.o not form such a grid.
In [7] it was proposed that climatic and prognostic data be used for filling in
the lacking information.
An initial grid region, which we will call a"base" region, can be obtained using
ordinary polynomial interpolation or the fin.ite elements method (FEM) [12].
The essence of the FEM method is a breakdown of the region of stipulation of the
function into simpl.e subregions (triangles, recr_angles) with the vertices at the
observation points and polynomial interpolation of f:ne function in each subregion.
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The smoothness of the field is retained with an alternation of the subregions
- (elements). The degree of the approximating polynomial is determined by the num-
b er of stations forming the element. For territories with a thin network of sta-
tions it is only possible to use two-dimensional simplex-elements.
For example, for a simplex-element with three vertices (xi, yi), (xj, yj), (xk, yk)
a t which the field values Ti, Tj, Tk are stipulated the interpolation formula has
the form [10]
- T - ;V, T; N; Tj +,V,; Tk,
where
1
:V, = l A ((xj yk - .Yk Y/) - (yj y0 .r (-rR - -rj) y
1
'Vi = 1 .-t ~(xr, Yi - Yk xr1 (Yk - yd x (xT - xk) -v
Nk - 2~q ((x, - xj Y 0 r (Yr - Y) .r ; (.rj - x,) y1,
A is the area of the triangle, x, y are the current coordinates.
i ~
I - %
~ .i
] ~ : L
_ 1..~
(1)
Fig. l. Diagram of distribution of aerological soimding stations, computation grids
and surface pressure field (1 real and 2-- computed). 3) aerological stations;
4) points of intersection of base grid; example of computation grid lower left
ca rner of polygon.
After creation of a base grid the function to be interpolated in each "square" of
the grid region is represented in the form of a bicubic polynomial
3 3 _
_ Til (.1e = v I Qkl (X Xi 1" (2)
k-u I:U
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where i= U, n, j= 0, m and satisfies additional conditions at the boundary of
the region. Source [6] gives an algorithm for finding the coefficients aki and
the convergence of the method is demonstrated.
- The results of studies for comparison of different interpolation methods [3, 41
make it possible to conclude that a priori it is difficult to give preference
to any of the methods. It is necessary to make a special investigation for the
purpose of selecting the method most acceptable for the problem considered. In
this case as test material it is possible to use model fields constructed in ac-
cordance with the processes to be studied. Examples of model fields are given in
[3, 4].
Below we give the results of numerical experiments for studying the accuracy and
filtering properties of some interpolation methods in model fields for the pur-
_ nose of selecting a method for the processing of data from aerological sounding
in the field experiment "POLEKS-Sever-79." A diagram of the location of sounding
- st Cions is shown as Fig. 1. The model fields simulated synoptic formations. The
real network of stations was used in the computations.
_ The experiments were carried out with the following types of interpolation: a)
_ interpolation into the computation grid region by means of algebraic polynomials
by the least squares method (LSM); b) interpolation into the base grid by the
LSM with subsequent spline interpolation into the computation grid region; c)
interpolation into the computation grid region using the FEM method; d) interpol-
- ation inro the base grid by the FEM method with subsequent spline interpolation
into the computation grid region.
a~ a
soo
s4
~ SJB
S17
d) ~ S04
Soe
5f1
BI L512
Fig. 2. Example of interpolation of model field (a) into base grid by FEM, into
computation spline appro ximation (b)- and by FEM in two stages (c).
Figure 2 shows a precise model field, and fields obtained by interpolation by meth-
ods (c) and (d). The figure shows that the spline field in general is close to
the initial field, whereas the simplex variant of the FEM gives a highly smoothed
approximation.
It follows f rom the cited experiments that: 1) polynomial interpolation in the
casF of a determi.ned field ensures a high accuracy of the analysis; 2) spline in-
terpolation in a"true" base grid has good interpolation properties (the relative
Lnterpolation error is less than 1%); 3) a splins interpolation in a base grid
constructed by the FEM considerably corrects its smoothing --ffect; 4) the intro-
duction of a random component into a model field is reflected to an insignificant
degree in the spline approximation; if the base grid is constructed by the FtM meth-
od, on the other hand, there is a marked decreuse in the accuracy of interpolation
by polynomials using the least squares method.
54
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4)
C)
~ .
~o
10
r
~Q ;
r;
10
700
~
I
a)
1 ..r
10 -i
?00 '
1!
r
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
f0 t
~
3
Fig. 3. Evaluations of two-dimens ional spectra of model fields. a) evaluation of
spectrum of p recise mAdel field; b) evaluation of spectrum of field constructed
by spline interpolation in base grid by FEM method; c) evaluation of spectrum of
field constructed by FEM method in two stages; d) one-dimensional representations.
In o rder to clarify the filtering properties of the interpolation we used spectral
_ analysis methods. The statistical processing of the interpolated fields included
computation of the elementary stat istical characteristics and evaluation of the
two-dimensional correlation functions and spectral densities [10].
For greater clarity the two-dimens ional functions can be reduced to one-dimension-
al sumnation of the values of the field of evaluations for the determined wave num- -
bers.
Figure 3 shows evaluations of two-dimensional spectra of fields shown in Fig. 2
and the one-dimensional analogues corresponding to them.
An analysicr.of the one-dimensional representations shows the degree to which the
statistical structure of the field changed as a result of interpolation. For ex-
ample, the f ield obtained by the FEM method is characterized by a mi.nimum disper-
sion. The mo s t informative partof the spectrum (the region of large wavelengths) -
is considerab ly distorted and the short-wave part is smoothed.
55
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The spectrum of the spline field is closer to the true spectrum; only the short-
wave part is insignificantly distorted. 'I'he harmonics of a synoptic scale are
virtually not distorted. Idumerical experiments convincingly indicate that spline interpolation, in addition
to technical simplicity, makes it possible to obtain the fields of ineteorological
elements which meet the requirements imposed on iniri.al data when analyzing the re-
sults of a field experiment.
The computations of real fields (Fig. 1) confirm the conclusion which was drawn.
Thus, the proposed interpolation method for data from aerological sounding in a
field experiment involves two stages. The first stage is preparatory.and inw?ves
the creation of a rough grid region whose interval corresponds to the characteris- -
tic dimensions of the studied pr.ossure formations. In the second stage the spline
inte rpolation of the fielcls of meteorological elements is carried out at the points
of intersection of the computation grid.
The further improvement of the
tain ing the base grid and also
for spline interpolation of thi
of intersection.
1. A1'berg, Zh., NiJ'son, E.,
(Theory of Splir:es and Its
method involves a refinement of the method for ob-
the development of a sufficiently simple algorithm
: function with a nonuniform distribution of points
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Uolsh, Dzh., TEORIYA SPLAYNOV I YEYE PRILOZHENIYA
Applications), Moscow, Mir, 1972.
2. Gandin, L. S., OB"YEKTIVNYY ANALIZ METEOROLOGICHESKIKH POLEY (Objective Anal-
ysis of Meteorological Fields), Leningrad, Gidrom--teoizdat, 1963.
3. Kostytllcov, V. V., Zvereva, N. I., Tarasova, L. V., "Numerical Experiments for
Comparison of Different Objective Analysis Methods," TxUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA
- SSSR (Transactions of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center), No 170, 1977.
- 4. Kostyukov, V. V., Seredkina, I. G., "Numerical Experiments 4Jith Objective An-
alysis of Synoptically Significant Pressure Systems," TRUDY ZSRNIGMI (Trans-
~ actions of the Western Siberian Scientific Research Hydrumeteorological Inst-
itute), No 29, 1978. -
5. Koshlyakov, M. I., "Scientific Results of 'Poligon-70' and Other Soviet Exped-
itions," ISSLEDOVANIYE SINOPTICHESKOY IZMENCHIVOSTI OKEANA (Investigation of
_ Synoptic Variability of the Ocean), MGI AN UkSSR, Sevastopo].', 1977.
6. Marchuk, G. I., METODY VYCHISLITEL'NOY MATEMATIKI (Methods of Computational
Mathematics), Moscow, Nauka, 1977.
7. Penenko, V. V., "One Method for the Objective Analysis of t:ie Fields of
Meteorological Elements on a Sphere," MEIEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOc=IYA (Meteorology =
and Hydrology), No 5, 1974.
56
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8. Petrov, A. A., "Objective Analysis on the Basis of Approximation of Fields
by Polynomials," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 6, 1968.
9. Polyak, N. I., Shakhmeyster, V. A., "Some Results of Tao-Dimensional SpectYgl
Analysis of the Geopotential Field af the 500-mb Surface," TRUDY GGO (Trans-
actions of the 14ain Geophysical Observatory), No 409, 1978.
10. Rozhkov, V. A., METODY VEROYATNOSTNOGO ANALIZA OKEANOLOGICHESKIKH PROTSESSOV
_ (Methods for Stochastic Analysis of Oceanological Processes), Leningrad,
- Gidrometeoizdat, 1979.
_ 11. Segerlind, L., PRIMENENIYE METODA KONECHNYKH ELEMENTOV (Use of the Finite Ele-
ments Method), Moscow, Mir, 1979.
12. Streng, G., Fiks, Dzh., TEORIYA METODA KONECHNYKH ELEMENTOV (Theory of the
Finite Elements Method), Moscow, Mir, 1977.
13. Treshnikov, A. F., Sarukhanyan, E. I., Smirnov, N. P., "Results and Prospects
of the Polar Experiment," PROBLEMY ARI;TIKI I ANTARKTIKI (Problems of the Arc-
- tic and Antarctic), No 54, 1978.
14. Thompson, R. M., Payne, J. St. jd,, Recker, E. E., Reed, R. J., "Structure and
Properties of Synoptic-Scale Wave Disturbances in the Intertropical Converg-
ence Zone of the Eastern Atlantic," J. ATMOS. SCI,, Vol 36, No 1, 1979.
57
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UDC 551.456.7
ANNUAL BUDGET OF EXCHANGE OF OXYGEN BETWEEN THE OCEAIC AND THE ATMOSPHERE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 80 pp 54-61
[Article by Yu. I. Lyakhin, candidate of geographical sciences, Leningrad Aydro-
meteorological In.stitute, manuscript submitted 14 Apr 801
[Text] Abstract: On the basis of generalization of materials
from hydrochemical observations in the world ocean
for the period 1960-1978 the author has construct--
_ ed mean seasonal maps of the distribution of the
concentrations of dissolved oxygen at the ocean
surface. Computations were ma.de of the rate and
mean annual budget of oxygen exchange between the
ocean and the atmosphere. It was established that
with respect to oxygen exchange the world ocean is
close to equilibrium with the atmosphere.
The dynamics of dissolved axygen in the surface layer of the ocean is determined
- by the relationship of the processes of oxygen production in photosynthesis and
consumption in the oxidation of organic matter, as well as the influence of hor-
izontal advection and exchange with the lower-lying layers. As a result the sur-
- face waters in some regions are supersaturated with oxygen, whereas others are
undersaturated; accordingly, the oxygen f.lux will be directed from the ocean
into the atmosphere, or vice versa. The world ocean clirectly participates in the
formation and regulation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and there-
fore a quantitative estimate of the receipts and losses in the gas exchange budget
in the ocean-atmosphere system is one of the most important problems in chemical
- oceanography.
The oxygen flux 0 02) per unit time through a unit area of the ocean-atmosphere
interface is dependent on several factors:
[ N= invasion, 9= evasion] A U, = n, 9A C, (1)
where p C(ml/liter) is the difference between the equilibrium concentration (solu-
bility of oxygen at a given temperature and salinity [111) and the actual oxygen
- content in the surface water, d-'i is the invasion constant (22.0�2.2 liter/(m4�iour)
at 20�C [10]), when lAC>0, iX e is the evasion constant (11.5f1.1 liter/(m2�hour)
58
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a)
b)
C>
d)
~ .

~ ` ~ �
1
JS ~7 S,
40 ~
~
. 09
. ~ r~. + + +e.,~
o~~'
~ ~ ~ D'' ~ ~l/ Y~ � ~
40
� ~10~ f to -JO
I ~4_ ' . .1 - 'J
~
40
� ;
.4-9.5 y6 t4i' ' , y s ~
; - y ~
40 40 ~ 1 �.C..'`..~.;;-~y ~ -/.S
a ti . - - ` + \
~ ~ ~ �1a. . ~ , ~ .'.'~t, Y1..2~~., 1~
12 40
-10
- - - -1 ,o
A6
' �n~.. ~ ~ za ~ o~o : ~ ~
~~o
-6 ~01
~ - -L
4D ; , _J
~ ` p , �!0 ` �?D %
fiiz.
~SQ.-- ...ac . .
Fig. 1. Content of dissolved oxygen (ml/liter) in surface water of world ocean
according to actual data (a, c, e, g) and distribution of A C(x10'2 ml/liter),
averaged by 5� trapezia at the surface of the world ocean (b, d, f, h).
59
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e)
f)
g)
nJ
FQIt OFFICIAG USE ONLY
o a
k� " 40 I
C~ � f0Y'J ~ ~ _ _ _ ~ ~
~ - - ;~9:~ - '--I 7o I-- -

,
- ---o ~:T _-ro �3a
40 a
'1 f ~ ~ �ao
` - - - - - - ~
, - - - - -43 - -
- 'f 4f~s 4~�.~ Y. . 4,~-y} y~s 6 ~i y6. .
71 IS~,
~T
~ - _41-- 1 ' . �
~ , .
1) ~ Q151 i ,-1--- \
0:I
z
~
A, IL -

_
40, -i~;'sor - ' : ao
~J '�l.-~.-~._..-^.~ / �1
' i;~,JA ,-�4e.~::.,.~ .^r^'�`~~l.T'*~~ - -i _2B -
. ~a~ ' ~
aUsarption of oxygen by ocean, release o{ oxygen from ocean and atmo-
sphere. a, fi-- January-February, c, d April-May, e, f) July-August, g, h)
~ Uctober-November.
60
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at 20�C [lO]), where nV is an integral coefficient [9] showing by how many times
the rate of gas exchange increases with different wind velocities (V) in compar-
ison with an ideal calm (1 + 0.27 V2 with V4.8 m%sec, -7.38 + 0.40 V2 with V,-,8
m/sec), nt is a temperature coefficient for reduc:ing the exchange constants frnm
20�C to the observed water temperature [10], linearly related to temperature (0.75
at 6�C and 1.10 st 25�C).
Computations of transport of oxygen masses across the ocean surface requires a
knowledge of the A C values at all nodal points in the world ocean, not as an av-
erage for the year or for a half-year, but for each season of the year because
averaging at large time scales can substantially distort tha result. The surface
oxygen fields represented in the ATLAS OF THE OCEANS [2, 3] represent an averag-
ing of observational data for the warm and cold half-years in the northern hemi-
sphere, whereas it is necessary to have a mDre detailed idea r_oncerning the nature
of the oxygen distribution in the surface water of the ocean from season to sea-
son. For this purpose we carried out processir.g of bathometric data (TGM-3M tables)
available at the Wo rld Data Center (Moscow) for 1960-1978 for the periods January-
Februaay, April-May, July-August, October-November. lde used observational data
from USSR expeditions (departments of the USSR Academy of Sc:iences, Academy of Sci-
ences Ukrainian SSR, State Committee on Hydrometeorology, All-Union Institute of
Fishing and Oceanography, USSR Navy)= axpeditions of the United States, Great Brit-
ain, Japan, Sweden, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Australia and African countries.
The basis for evaluating the qualiCy of the initial data was the principles formul-
ated by the author of [7]. The total number of observations remaining after the
discarding of doubtful and erroneous values is given in Table 1.
The greatest number of stations was in the Atlantic Ocean; the Pacific Ocean was
covered with a less dense number of observations. The distribution of stations over
the ocean area was also nonuniform. The greatest nwmber of stations (up to 30 in a
5� grid square) was ir. the regions of the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, shelves of Africa
and South America, and in fishing areas. There were up to 10 stations each in the
5� grid squares of the northern parte of the oceans. There were far fewer stations
(often 1-2 each 5� grid square) in the central regions of the southern halves of
- the oceans and in the Antarctic Ocean. Nevertheless, the total numbPr of stations
during the last eight years increased considerably. This made it gossible with an
adeq uate degree of reliability to construct maps of the distribution of the concen-
trations of dissolved oxygen for the four seasons of the year (Figure la, c, e, g) .
In constructing the maps the values falling in a 1� square were averaged; the oth-
ers were used as the result of ane-time observations. Sources [6, 14, 15] were used
as auxiliary sources.
The figures show that the general natterns of distribution of oxygen concentrations
at the surface of the oceans and the shape of the ;solines persist during the en-
tire year with insignificant variations in the tropical and temporal latitudes. Ap-
preciable changes in the fields from season to season are noted in the high lati-
tudes (to the north and south of 50�S). A"zone of uncertainty" of arrangement of
the lines of equal oxygen concentration has a maximum width (up to 5� in longitude,
2-30 in latitude) in the tropical and equatorial latitudes; in other regions it
does not exceed 1-2� in latitude. In general, the seasonal oxygen fields have a
61
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zonal character, revealing a similarity to the temperature fields and diagrams
of circulation of surface water masses. The distribution of A C values character-
izing the direction and intensity of oxygen exchange (Fig. 1b, d, f, h) reflects
the mean seasonal relationships between oxygen production, the biological absorp-
tion coefficient, temperature regime and convect3.ve processes. The princinal cen-
� ters of oxygen absorption from the atmosphere are the Antarctic Ocean and the re-
gions to the north of 45�N (all seasons, except summer), and also the east-tropical
part of the Pacif ic Ocean (all seasons, except January); a weak invasion close to
equilibrium is usually observed around Australia; the remaining regions of the
world ocean are characterized by the release of oxygen from the water into the at-
mosphere.
Table 1
Number of Stations With Determinations of Dissolved Oxygen in nceans (1.960-1978)
Used in ConStructing Fig. 1
Jcean Season Total
January- April- July- October-
February May August November
Atlantic 2227 2679 2314 2355 9575
Indian 1320 1105 1237 960 4622
Pacific 2602 1813 1339 1750 7504
The rates of oxygen exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, computed using
the mean monthly wacer temperature and wind velocity values from [2, 31, were com-
pa red on characteristic profiles intersecting the uceans from the extreme north-
ern to the extreme southern latitudes (Fig. 2). In the tropics and subtropics of
the oceans during the entire year there is a predominance of the evasion of oxygen
cvith rates of 10-20 ml/(m2�hour). In the temperate and high latitudes, where atmo-
, spheric processes are more intense and the wind velocities increase, the release
or absorption of o xygen, depending on season, attain 100 ml/(m2�hour). The general
character of the variability of the oxygen fluxes by latitudes coincides with the
- data in [1], obtained by another method. The fields of dissolved oxygen and the
gas exchange parameters (Fig. 1) serve as a basis f.or computing the annual budget
of gas exchange for the area of the world ocean using the equation
M02 ='G SntnV ainvasion, evasion PAC, . (2)
where "t is the number of hours in a season, S is the area of a 5� square in depen-
clence on the geographic latitude [11], P is oxygea density under normal conditions
(1.429 mg/ml).
The summing of exchange masses of oxygen by 5� squares gives the budget for each
season and as an average for the year for the entire world ocean. When making the
computatio ns we took into account the generally accepted boundar ies between the
oceans [13] and the position of the ice edge from [2, 3]. The results of the cum-
putations are generalized in Table 2, froia which it is easy to see- the seasonal
differences in the absorption or release of oxygea in latitude zones in the oceans.
The total absorption and release of oxygen in rne world ocean (more than 52�109
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tons/year) are comparable with the production of oxygen by continental vegeta-
tion (235�109 tons/year) and by phytoplankton in the ocean (154�109 tons/year)
[4, 5], but the resultant annual budget is not great (-0.54�109 tons/year). The
errors introduced into the results of the computations are created primarily by
the errors in determinations of the oxygen content (�0.02 ml/liter) and the devi-
a tions Q C from the mean values in 5� grid squares as a result of the intraseas-
onal and spatial variability. The mean relative error in the Q C and Mp values
will evidently be not less than 10% (Table 3) and the resultant annual gxygen ex-
change budget is only 1% of the total exchange masses. Accordingly, it can be
stated with certainty that with respect to oxygen exchange the world ocean is in
ast3te close to equilibrium with the atmosphere.
_ �~n/fM2y; II1/ (m2�hour)
~
_ C) a) ~ .
-7G - /
/
- 0 .4~ ~ - ~ �s 4:'
~
~O 1
ae ~ 4
..i /
-BO
-4o
0
40
BO
-BO
-'YO
0
~
~
i

.
'
`
~Y
`
BO
�i

2
S ~am 60 40 20 0 ZD 40 6f - N
- Fig. 2. Rate of passage of oxygen through the ocean surface. a) along the meridian
30�W, b) along the meridian 60�E, c) along the meridian 160�W. 1) winter, 2)
spring, 3) summer, 4) autumn (in the northern hemisphere). absarption by the
ocean, release from the ocean.
63
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3
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Table 3
Averaged Errors in Computing AC and M02 in 5� Grid Squares in Different Zones
Latitude zone Standard Maximum Mean rela-
deviation deviation tive error
L1C, ml/liter Q C from M021, %
mean, ml/liter
25�N-25�S 0.02 up to 0.04 10
25�-40� 0.03 up to 0.05 10
_ North and south 0.04 up to 0.06 10
_ of 40�
The general conclusion finds a satisfactory explanation when using data on the
~ balance of organic matter in the ocean. It was shown in [51 that about 2% of the
_ organic carbon (109 tons Corg) produced by photosynthesis in the world ocean en-
ters bottom deposits. The remaining oxygen mus t be a pure increment and be releas-
ed into the atmosphere. But, on the other hand [12], approximately the same quan-
tity of allochthonous dissolved organic carbon enters with the continental runoff
and is virtually completely oxidized in the water masses of the ocean. Thus, the
- halance is closed: that quantity of oxygen which remains with the transfer of or-
- ganic matter into the bottom deposits is expended on the oxidation of organic mat-
- ter in continental runoff. For the time being it is evidently premature to examine
the problem of an excess of oxygen produced in the ocean and its role in the
earth's atmosphere [8].
It should be noted that the computations discussed here were made without taking
- into account the possible presencP of organic films on the ocean surface. At the
present time there are still no reliable data on the chemical composition, thick-
ness and structure of s urface films and therefo re a quantitative estimate nf the
film effect is a matter of the future.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
_ 1. Ariel', N. Z., i3yutner, E. K., Bortkovskiy, R. S., Strokina, A. L. ,"Influence
_ of Ocean Contamination by a Petroleum'Film o n Exchange of Oxygen With the Atmo-
sphere," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 2, 19791.
Al 2. ATLAS OKEANOV. TII:HIY OIiEAN (Atlas of the Oceans. Pacific Ocean.), Izd-vo VMF,
1974.
- 3. ATLAS OKEANOV. ATL,ANTICHESKIY I INDIYSKIY OKEANY (Atlas of the Oceans. Atlantic
and Indian Oceans), Izd-vo VMF, 1977.
4. Dobrodeyev, 0. P., "Experience in a Quantita tive Evaluation of Global Activity
of Living Matter," VESTNIK MGU: SERIYA GEOGR. (Herald of Moscow State Univer-
sity: Geographical Series), No 1, 1974.
- 5. Ivanenkov, V. N. ,"Investigation of Some Components of the Chemical Balance of
the Oceans," OKEANOLOGIYA (Oceanology), Vol 14, No 3, 1974.
65
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6. Ivanenkov, V. N., "Chemistry of Waters in the Atlantic Ocean," ATLANTICHESKIY
_ OKEANA (Atlantic Ocaan), Moscow, Mysl', 1977.
7. Ivanenkov, V. N. ,"5ources of Errors in ~t Chemical Analysis of [Jaters and an
Evaluation of the Quality of Hydrochemical Observations," METODY GIDROKHIM-
ICHESKIKH ISSLEDOVANIY OKEANA (Methods for Hydrochemical Investigations in
the Ocean), LMoscow, Nauka, 1978.
8. Kagan, B. A., Ryabchenko, V. A., TRASSERY V MIROVOM OKEANE (Tracers in the
Wo rld Ocean), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978.
9, Lyakhin, Yu. I., "Rate of C02 Exchange Between the Ocean and Atmosphere in
the Central Atlantic," TRUDY LGMI (Transactions of the Leningrad Hydrometeor-
- ological Institute), No 57, 1976.
- 10. Lyatch~n, Yu. I., "On the Problem of the Rate of Oxygen Exchange Between the
Ocean and Atmosphere," OKEANOLOGIYA, Vol 18, No 3, 1978.
11. OKEANOGRAFICHESKIYE TABLITSY, Izd. 4-ye (Oceanographic Tables, Fourth Edition),
Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdar, 1975.
12. Roma.nkevich, Ye. A., GEOKHIMIYA ORGANICHESKOGO VESHCHESTVA V OKEANE (Geochem-
istry of Organic Matter in the Ocean), Moscow, Nauka, 1977.
13. Stepanov, V. N., "General Information on the World Ocean," OKEANOLOGIYA. T l.
GIDROFIZIICA OKEANOV (Oceanology. Vol 1. Ocean Hydrophysics), Nauka, 1978.
14. Chernyakova, A. M., "Dissolved Oxygen," TIKHIY OKEAN. T 3. KHIMIYA TIKHOGO
OKEANA (Pacific Ocean. Vol 3. Chemistry of the Pacific Ocean), Moscow, Nauka,
1966.
15. Wyrtki, K., OCEANOGRAPHIC ATLAS OF THE INTERNATIONAL INDIAN OCEAN EXPEDITION,
U. S. Co vt. Printing Off., Washington, 1971.
i
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UDC 551. (465: 507.362)
- USE OF SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS OF THE 3URFACE TEMPERATURE FIELD IN A NUMERICAL MODEL
OF THE UPPER LAYER OF THE OCEAN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 80 pp 62-70
[Article by V. P. Kochergin, professor, I. Ye. Timchenko, doctor of physical and
mathematical sciences, V. I. Klimok and V. A. Sukhorukov, candidates of physical
and mathematical sciences, and V. M. Talanov]
jText] Abstract: A numerical model of the upper
quasihomogeneous layer of the ocean was
used in assimi.lation of data from satel-
lite and contact measurements of the sur-
= face temperature field. A statistical pro-
cedure is proposed for adjusting the re-
- sults of these measurements. The data used
- were materials from the Soviet-French ex-
pedition in the Gulf of Lyons in 1976.
The different problems involved in the interaction between the atmosphere and
ocean are of great importance with respect to monitoring the state of the ocean,
weather forecasting, solving navigational probleros and op timizing the process of
search for concentrations of fish. The forma.tion of a quasihomogeneous layer at
the acean surface plays an important role in the transfer of heat reaching the
ocean surface into the ocPan.
The monitoring of the state of the ocean involves tracking the spatial-temporal
evolution of the principal fields in the ocean in the investigated region. In
carrying out such monitoring it is necessary to use not only contact measurements
' of the f ields, but also information on oceanic processes at the ocean surface
which can be obtained from satellites. In recent years, due to the use of scanning
_ measuring instruwents on satellites, it has become possib le to obtain images of the
ocean surface in the IR range [13]. Such images constit ute a virtually instantan-
- eous photograph of the surface temperature field at tI-ie time when the satellite
_ trajectory intersects the investigated region. The purDos e of calibration of
satellite information is its joint use with contact data for the ocean.
One of the first experiments for adjusting the,measurement results was made by
French scientists [12] during the second Soviet-French expedition "Sovfrans-II" in
the Gulf of Lyons in 1976 [8, 14]. In the course of the experiment simultaneous
67
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remote and contact measurements were made of the surface temperature of the gulf
(scientific research ship "Suroit" and the American satellite "NOAA-4"). These
measurements were accompanied by density surveys from aboard the scientific re-
search ship "Akademik Vernadskiy" [10]. The totality of collected measurement
data makes it possible to carry out numerical experiments for the joint use of
the results of satellite and contact observations in a model of the upper quasi-
homogeneous layer (UQL). The satellite carried a radiometer with a very high space
resolution (0.9 km) which gave an image of the ocean in the IR range.
Evaluations of the assimilation of data from real satellite and contact observa-
tions obtained in the course of "Sovfrans-II" are given in [12]. Observation of
the temporal change in the characteristics of physical conditions in the ocean
medium is best accomplished using maps of the fields of these parameters obtain-
ed in the course of computations on the basis of theoretical models of ocean dy-
namics [3, 11] ur direct processing of the results of observations in a polygon
[2)�
_ At the present time, in addition to these traditional approaches, increasing use
is being made of the four-dimensional analysis method or the dynamic-stochastic
- approach to the modeling of fields and construction of their ma.ps [9]. In this ar-
ticle the author proposes a dynamic-sCochastic model of the behavior of the upper
quasihomogeneous layer of the ocean; provision is made for the assimilation of
data from remote and contact sounding of the surface temperature field.
The dynamic part of the mpdel makes it possible to compute the changes in the time-
= averaged and spatially smoothed components of hydrothermodynamic fields in the
ocean. The method for camputing the characteristics of the upper layer in the
ocean used in the model was developed at the Computation Center Siberian Depart-
ment USSft Academy of SciEnces and set forth in a number of studies [3, 51.
The fundamental system of equations, written in a Cartesian coordinate system with
the x and y axes in the direction 30 and 120�, has the following form:
equations of motion
du 1 r,P� d rd du
- ar - lv a.r g a I ? dz K o ~ A, ' (1)
- , H
d + Itt = - ; ' d � + g a (P dz ~ t Z K s A, ~ �a; (2)
continuity equation ~ N dm , du dv
az ~ ax av - 0' (3)
density diffusion equation
6 p + u + v d ' w d ' - a K P Ap�
dt dx oy dz dr. dz ~ ' (4)
coefficient of vertical turbulent exchange, an analogua of thP Obukhov formula
- with a turbulence scale proportional to the thickness of the surface turbulent
_ layer the Prandtl mixing path [4]
68
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, ~ d
dn A ?
_ (0,05 h)� l/ ( az ) + ( dt a: d= '
(5)
Mamayev equation of state
1 7- 1(28,132 - 0,0735 T- 0,0,469 T=) � 10-3 +
(0.802 - 0,002 T)(S - 3-5) � l0-'1.
where S= 38.20/0o is the mean salinity in the polygon.
The boundary conditions for equations (1)-(4) have the following form:
at the surface (z = 0)
(6)
K d U - - -r K ~v = f �J X, v)� (7)
n: 1O ~z ?u
at the depth H1 (geostrophic currents, z= H1)
I ( . dP., d Hi %
odtl. zp pdx I, (8)
!!s = oy ~ o.r + d.r
l? � . ~i
X, yl. (9)
At the lateral boundaries of the polygon the values of the density anomaly and
current velocities u and v are stipulated:
'Ir =~'r (t, x, y, Z), u, v r= uri vr (t, X, 1, (10)
At the initial moment (3 July) the velocity, density anomaly and vertica.l turbu-
lent exchange values are stipulated over the entire region of the polygon:
t~_ 0: u, v= r/,,, z. 0 (x, z )
(a, y.. Z)
h'-A�(x.y.z)
In equa tions (1)-(11) use is made of the following notations: Pa is atmospheric
- pressure in the near-water layer, 'CX, 'Gp are the components of wind shearing
stress, g is the acceleration of free falling, H(x,y) is bottom relief, h is the
depth of the upper quasihomogeneous layer, 1= 0.976�10-4 sec-1 is the Coriolis
parameter, corresponding to the location of the "Borha-II" buoy laboratory.
In the model in the first approximation in the equations of motion allowance is
_ made only for lateral exchange. The level surface is determined by the dynamic
rethod [I1].
c = - Po f dz. (12)
0
The wind shearing stress is computed using the Ackerblom formulas using data on
near-water pressure far each day from 3 through 27 July 1976.
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~aa do W i ~ dx - a y�
~ (13)
where Ka = 105 cm2/sec is the coefficient of vertical turbulent exchangz in the
- atmosph.err.
The thickness of the upper quasihomogeneous layer h is determined by the first com-
putation point zk, where the following condition is satisfied
du � at' d F = K
~ (0,05 zkl= l( d 1~ l dz ~ P� dz min~ (14)
- In the computations it was assumed that ICmin = 0.1 cm2/sec. As the boundary values
_ for th e density anomaly we used real data obtained in the course of density surveys
[10] on 3 and 27 July, linearly interpolated between them; deeper than H1 (H1 = 200
m) the density anomalies to the real depth H were linearly interpolated from
~ P1(t, X. Y, Hl) to 0.
The boundary conditions for the velocity of horizontal mtion (8) were found as a
result of diagnostic computations of equations (1), (2), (5) in a stationary ap-
proxima.tion without allowance for lateral exchange for 3 and 27 July with subse-
quent linear interpolation for the entire period of the experiment. The initial
conditions (11) were determined as a stationary solution of equations (1)-(5). Use
was made of a numerical method based on use of two nested grids in the vertical
coordinate (6]. The computations were made from 3 through 27 July with a time in-
terval of 12 hours.
i
4 5 6
Hapcenp ~
n s , 11,s i ?7.
1~S i 1?.S 17,5 9~
3
- '
12 ?1 CJ
10Pd ~ f ~S n I' 1~1J S3S
CC12
S'
.
14
14
;
11, f22
z~ ?J ~ c3 J
1,r
IJ
13..~ 1113 0% 73 1 j ~ ~
2
1~ ~ 1 6'LU~
- - - '~r-
~ ;2J~
10 1J, S 1j

. ~
I \ ; c1J, 5
I ~ V
4
Fig. 1. Map of surface temperature of Gulf of Lyons on 9 July 1976, constructed us-
ing data from the "NOAA-4" satellite [12]. The hydrophysical polygon is represent-
ed by a rectangle.
70
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The stochastic part of the model, consisting of statistical algorithms for the as-
similation of observational data developed at the Marine Hydrophysical Institute
Academy of Sciences Ukrainian SSR, makes it possible to carry out a joint analy-
sis of observations obtained by remote and contact soundings of the ocean. Sat-
ellite measurements made on 9 and 21 July covered parts of the Gulf of Lvons
which differ in area. The southern boundary of the satellite measurements on 9
July passed along latitude 41�55'S, on 21 July along latitude 41�35'N. Con-
- tact measurements of surface temperature carried out along the trajectory of
~ motion of the "5uroit" are extremely nonuniformly distributed over the area of
- the polygon and therefore the observations made on 8-10 and 20-22 July were as-
signed to 9 and 21 July respectively. Satellite data of 9 July (in Che form of
isotherms) and the trajectories of motion of the "Suroit" are given in Fig. 1.
Using statistical analysis algorithms [9] the results of contact and remote meas-
urements of the surface temperature field were investigated for anisotropy. The
computations of the correlation functions of the temperature field for 9 and 21
July along the directions (Qtf= 30�) and on the assumption of uniformity indicat-
ed that with allowance for the width of the confidence intervals (30%) there is
satisfaction of the hypothesis of uniformity and isotropicity of the mentioned
fields. The correlation functions of the random temperature component fields
were apgroximated by a dependence in the form
(15)
K~(;.~';)~ e~(~(-(x~;�Y; ~'os~s,l-~"~�
The values of the coefficients [X i and Pi are summarized in Lhe table.
Type of ineas-
Date
of ineas-
O~i km`1
Pi km 1
urement
urement
Remote
9
July
0.0346
0.0157
(NOAA-4) same
21
July
0,0097
0.0143
Contact
9
July
0.0425
0.0415
("Suroit") same
21
July
0.0616
0.0449
_ The prefiltering operation was carried out on the basis of the theory of ineasure-
ments and interpolation of random fiel.ds developed by Petersen and Middleton in
[15, 16]. Tlie representation of satellite data in the form of a map of the meas-
_ ured ocean field was examined in detail in [1]; therefore, we will discuss only
the principal results. We will examine the values of the field measured from a
satellite f(z as the sum of the values oj the smoothed component of the true
f ield s(~ and the measurement error 7?(X), which we will assume to be in the
form of "white noise."
f (X) = S (X) lX 1, A' (16)
The "informative" component of the satellite frame, which is :epresented by the
the field values at the points of intersection in a regular grid, can be discrim-
inated in the process of averaging of the field f(X with some weighting function

y(X), characterizing the measurement method.
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S ( VI~ij) X) ClA . -
(X) (17)
The evaluation of this component is determined by the linear interpolation for-
_ mula S (X) Ia ~ (A - Vim)I ' S
tml (18)
Minimizing the mean square interpolation error S(X) = E{Is(X) - S(X)~2 on the
assumption of uniformity and isotropicity of the random field S(X), we obtain a
system of Kolmogorov equa.tions for determining the optimum weighting coefficients
of the interpolation correlation algorithm
Ks.T Gy - VI fii11= af (X - L,~m1) 'h..~ ~ ~~Iml - l"[^I~~� (19)
Iml
It was demonstrated in [15, 16] that if the measured field is represented at the
poi;its of intersection of a regular grid and is uniform and isotropic, there is
P definite form of the weighting coefficients. In the case of a square measurement
brid the optimum weighting coefficients are determined as
af I X. 1') _ Sin 2 r. Bx ' sin ? - By _
2 _ li.r B ~ ~ ~
~ y
~
and the spectral algorithm for optimum interpolation at arbitrary points X as-
sumes the form
s (X) ig� (,Y - l'1R1) ' s (Ilikill, (21)
I;1
where V[m) is a grid in which the prefiltration field values were determined.
We will use an algorithm for prefiltering the field f(xi, that is, replacement
of a set of initial satellite data by a representative set in a thinner grid,
~ >
5i4, (0) = J ( XI4l) r i(0 - X) g~~, - X~k~~ Ci~' (22) -
(Xl
or in the spectral form ~
A f ( XlR)) i
Sixi (0) _(4 r~U)) G(11)) exp iw �.Y~~~) dW, (23)
where (r ( W) and G(c~) are Fourier transforms of the weighting functions. Requiring
- satisfaction of the relationships between r(~ and G(ZT) as conditions_for the
repreeentativeness of the s(0) values, we obtain expressions for the s(V[m])
values as a result of prefiltering of the satellite frame
1 sln 2 r. Bx sin ? r. By `
'
S~ f(X1R1) l a~ 1- ex 2 a ey (24)
where a is the dimension of a cell of the initial dbservation grid, 2riB is the
upper limiting cutoff frequency of the field to be filteredz separating the infor-
mative low-frequency part of the spectrum from the high-frequency noise. The noise
level is assumed to be equal to 10% of the power of the eatire received signal. In
connection with approximation of the correlation functions of satellite meas ure-
nients by a dependence in the form (15) for constructing the generatrix of the two-
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dimensional spectrum of these fields use was made of the results in [7] and the
upper limiting cuzoff frequeney was ascertained. It was 0.0792 km 1. The interval
of the new grid was 39.3 km, which is three times greater than the interval of
the initial grid of satellite observations. The prefiltering of satellite data
mads it possible to obtain representative "measurements" of temperature from a
satellite. Optimum interpolation of these "measurements" was carried out at the
points of intersection in the polygon and at the point of contacti measurements in
accardance with the optimum interpolation spectral algorithm (20), (21). The cor-
relation algorithm (19) was used for the optimum interpolation of contact meas ure-
ments at the polygon points of intersection. At the points of contact measurements
we form the nonclosures r(Xk) between the val~ues of the contact measurements
f2(Xk) and the prefiltered satellite data s(Xk):
-i 1 -s
r (Xk) _ A (Xk) - s (xk) = fz (,tk) - ~ ig (.Xk - V~~~1 's t V~~I)1� (25)
l~l
After interpolation of the nonclosures (25) by the correlation optimum interpola-
tion method (19) at polygon points of intersection we carried out an assimilation
of satellite and contact measurements of the field of surface temperature. The
fields of ocean surface temperature were transformed into density fields at the
ocean surface using the equation of state (6).
m!n 2
max 47
mi,7 7
max 42
min 2
mcx dB
min7
mox 42
Fig. 2. Surfaces of lower boundary of QHL on 23 July 1976, constructed using the re-
sults of computations. a) without assimilation of information on the surface temper-
ature field; b) with assimilation of eontact data; c) with assimilation of satellite
data; d) with aasinilation of matched satellite and contact measurements.
Tt2us, as a result of use of the stochastic part of the model for 9 and 21 July we
computed the boimdary conditions for the density field at the surface using both
data only from remote and contact saundings of the ocean surface and with their
matched values.
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The computed density fields were introduced into a numerical scheme of the dynamic
part of the model as "fresh10 boundary conditions effective 9 and 21 July. We note
that in computations with correction of the boundary conditions the inte rpolation
of surface boundary conditions was accomplished from the moment of the receipt of
fresh infor.mation (9 and 21 July) to the time of the second survey (27 July).
In the course of numerical experiments there was found to be an influence of mod-
ified boundary conditions on the behavior of one of the finest characteristics of
the upper quasihomogeneous layer the spatial distribution of its depth h during
the period 3-27 Ju1y.
The greatest depth of the QHL was a~tained on 23 July when the field of wind shear=
ing stress assumed maximum values ~ lmaX = 1.76 WM~. A factor exerting a great
influence on fo rnoation of depth of the upper quasihomogeneous layer is the local
value of the wind shearing stress and medium stratification. For examP le, on 23
July the wind s tress assumed a value in the range 1.19 N,,: dn+Io > Hn+la early with rapid thawing of snow
N� > Hn; dn-flo C dn=in early without rapid melting of snow
H� yn+i(l late with rapid melting of snow
_ H� < H,,; dn+10 G bn-I-1u late without rapid melting of snow
"r'or the years included in each of these groups we computed the mean hydrographs of
Zateral inflow, computed from expYessions (3), (4), (6), (7), (9) and (10) from
each part of the basin. These hydrographs are reduced to the norm by multiplying
their water discharges by the value of the ratio of the mean long-term volume of
lateral inflow to its mean volume for the years characteristic for the particular
type. The standard hydrographs obtained for each part of the basin, reduced to the
norm by means of the corresponding influence functions (Tables 1, 2), are trans-
formed to the lowest-lying stations and entered into tables. Then, for the first,
earliesC forecast prepared on 31 March, using known classification criteria
the water levels or the sums of wa,ter discharges in the rivers of the sector and
the anticipated 10-day air temperatures from these tables for each part of the
basin we determine the particular type of distribution of lateral inflow. Its or-
dinates are multiplied by the modular coefficient of the anticipated volume of
spring lateral inflow, equal to the ratio of the volume of this inflow in a par-
ticular year to its norm. As an approximate indicator of this volume for the dis-
cximinated parts of the basin we took the modular coefficients of the observed A
(up to 31 March) maximum snow reserves K= h/h, where h is their mean value and h
is the norm on this date.
- The lateral inf].ow hydrographs predicted in this way for each part of the brisin,
transformed to the lowest-lying stations, are summed together wii:h the transform-
ed planned �water discharges of the Novosibirskaya and Ust'-Kamenogorsl:aya Hydroel-
er_tric Power Stations, which gives a hydrograph of the anticipated runoff at each
- oF the considered lowest-lying stations.
- Table 3, as an i]_lustration, gives a forecast of the high-water hydrograph for the
Ob' at Belogor'ye prepared on 31 March 1975 using equation (14). In this table we
used the planned monthly water discharges of the Novosibirskaya (71) and Ust'-
Kamenogorskaya (Q6) Hydroel.ectric Power Stations. The anticipated hydrographs of
lateral inflaw f rom three parts of the Ob' and two parts of the Irtysh are deter-
mined using foraula (22), in which the distributions of the particular types c,�
lateral inflow are taken from the tables on the basis oF the clasaification cri-
teria. The distributions are multiplied by the corresponding modular coefficients
98
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.14.
of the maximum snow resexves observed up to 31 March. The hydrographs obtained
in this way in the first columns of Table 3 are then transfoxmed in the subse-
quent columns and are finally summed for the lowest-lying gaging station Belo-
gor'ye.
A prediction of the monthly water discharges at the time of high water on the Ob' at
Prokhorkino, Belogor'ye, Salekhard and on the Irtysh at Tobol'sk is made using equa-
tions (12)-(14) and (21) for different times in advance, for one, two, three monttis,
etc. Depending on tne advance time of the forecast and the real conditions prevail-
ing in the basin at the time of the forecast, iTi these equations allowance must be
made for the monthly water discharges in the lateral inflow, predicted using ex-
pression (22) or using hydrometric data.
- Whereas on 31 March the lateral inflow hydrographs are predicted on the basis of
allowance for the volinne of spring runoff anticipated on the basis of snow re-
serves and its corresponding standard distribution in time with subsequent summ-
ing of the transformed partial hydrographs, on 30 April, when melt water is flow-
ing into the river network in the basins, in formulas (12)-(14) and (21) some
monthly water discharges Qi,n+l of rivers flowing in can be predicted in these
sectors after the maximum inflow of water into tne river network on the basis of
hy3romAtric data using the equation
Qf. n._i = (2 Wn fl9u+ (23) .
in which Wn and qn are the channel water volumes and inflcw into the river network
at the time of the prediction n, a and b are constant values. For this purpose for
each part of the basin a method is developed for predicting the monthly water dis-
charges in the lateral inflow on the basis of hydrometric data for the rivers flow-
ing in this area [1, 2]. The first step is a determination of the dependence of
the monthly water discharges, obtained in the reaches Qlat, T�n the basis of for-
mula (1), on the sum of monthly discharges
N
~1Qj,
of N rivers flowing in within the defined sector. These correlations usually have
- the form
N
41at,T - A ~Qi, T' (24)
where A is a constant coefficient.
The monthly water discharges of lateral inflow in the defined river reaches are
determined using the equation
N A'
Q _ A(~l ~ Wt. n-- by
q;. ~ I.
lat,T (25)
ottained on the basis of (23), (24), in which the channel water volumes and inflaw
into the river network at the time of the forecast n is taken into account for N
rivers f'lowing in within the defined sectors.
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For example, the total volume of lateral inflow computed using formula (1) in
the Ob' reach from the Novosibirskaya Hydroelectric Power Station to Kolpashevo
is also determined for this reach on the basis of expression (25) with A= 1.1,
a= 0.89 and b= 0.33. The channel water volumes and inflow into the river net-
work of four rivers (Inya, Tom', Chulym and Chaya) are determined on the basis
of the water discharges determined each two days at seven gaging stations. The
lateral inFlow in the Ob' reach from Kolpashevo to Prokhorkino, where the Ket`,
I'arabel', Vasyugan and Pim Rivers flow in, is predicted for a month on the basis
of equation (25) with the coefficients A= 2.0, a= 0.38 and b= 0.35. The chan-
nel volumes and water inflow of four rivers into the river network are computed
at six gaging stations for two-day intervals.
The refinement of the hi;h-water hydrograph on the basis of hydrometric data is
usually prepared aft2r onset of the maximum of inflow into the channels. The
water discharges of lateral inflow for two reaches predicted for the neYt month
on t!ie basis of equaCion (25) are taken into account in equation (12) in a pre-
di~_cion of Ob' runoff at Prokhorkino for a month in advance:
~
l), } 2 n T
i=l
_ ;
-i- 0,15 q1 n 0.56 -0,81 0.19 Ql. (26)
r-~
a a
+ U, 76 2: W_ _3. I. n-47 0,70 ~ 9' -3, i, n;
i=1
- and for two months in advance:
0,26 (11. n}1 t 0,73 ;~1, rt-~-t + 0.01 Qi, n-1 + 0,44 KI - Ql-^_. n+� + (27)
4 a -
_ 0.54 IWI-z.r.n 4- 0,18 ~ qj-^-. j, n+Kz-a Cl2-:3. n-1-2�
For three months in advance in (12) use is made of values predicted using (22):
43. ,.+a = 0,26 Ql. n+a 4- 0,73 Ql. rr-4-2 + 0,01 Ql. n-:-., +
(28)
- + 0.44 K; n-3 -I- 0,56 IVI n+^
In equations (26)-(28) the monthly water discharges Q1 of the Novosibirskaya Hydro-
electric Power Station are taken into account for the two months up to the time
of the forecast and thE planned discharges for three months; the actual monthly
_ water discharges at Kolpashevo Q2, ch.annel volumes and water inflow into the river
network for four rivers in the reach Novosibirskaya Hydroelectric Power Station-
- i:olpashevo and four rivers in the reach Kolpashevo-Prokhorkino, and the modular
coefficients of the anticipated volume of lateral inflow in the reaches K1_2 and
K2_3 (see Fig. 1) are also taken into account.
The use of hydrometric data somewhat improves t'Ze results of predicting the high-
water hydrograph based on classifi-cation procedures.
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Thus, the described method for the long-range prediction of the high-water hydro-
graph by months makes it possible to take into account the hydrometeorological
cvnditions in different parts of the basin prevailing up to the time of the fore-
cast and anticipated later, including the course of the anticipated (planned) water
discharges of the Novosibirskaya and Ust'-Kamenogorskaya Hydroelectric Power Sta-
tions, the spring lateral inflow anticipated on the basis of snow reserves and hy-
drometric data, the 10-day air temperature at the time of snow melting predicted
on the basis of a weather forecast and the travel time of runoff from a part of
the basin to the lowest-lying gaging station.
The computations of the monthly water discharges of the Ob' at Prokhorkino and Belo-
gor'ye from April through September for 16 years (1960-1975), made by Z. I. Rub-
tsova using equations (12) and (14), are characterized by a mean error (in of
the actual monthly water discharges at Prokhorkino of 3.4% (it varies by months
from 1.6 to 5.2%), at Belogor'ye 3.2% (1.8-4.7%). The same computations for the
Irtysh at Tohol'sk for 20 years (1956-1975), made by V. T. Kurbatova using equation
(13), givc a mean error for six months of 1.7% (0.5-6.1%). Control forecasts of
monthly water discharges with allowance in expression (22) for the modular coef-
ficients of maximum snow reserves up to the day of the forecast of 31 March for
these same years and months give a mean error in percent for the actual month.ly
iaater discharges of the Ob' at Prokhorkino of 19.3% (15.3-24.0%), at Belogor'ye
16.1% (11.5-25.9%) and for the Irtysh at Tobol'sk 24.8% (19.3-29.9%).
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. RUKOVODSTVO PO GIDROLOGICHESKIM PROGNOZAM, VYP. 1. KRATKOSROCHNYYE PROGNOZY
RASKHODOV I UROVNEY VOBY NA REKAKH (Manual on Hydrological Forecasts, No. 1.
_ Short-Range Forecasts of Water Discharges and Levels in Rivers), Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1964.
2. Sapozhnikov, V. I., PROGNOZY STOKA REK V BASSEYNE VOLGI PO RUSLOVYM ZAPASAM
VODY I PRITOKU V RECtiNUYU SET' (Predictions of River Runnff in the Voiga Basin
on the Basis of Channel Reserves and Inflow Into the River Network), Moscow,
Gidrometeoi2dat, 1960.
3. Sapozhnikov, V. I., DOLGOSROCHNYYE PROGNOZY GIDROGRAFA POLOVOD'YA I PAVODKOV NA
BOL'SHIKH REKAKH S UCHETOM NERAVNOMERNOSTI STOKA V BASSEYNAKH: METODTCHESKOYE
PIS'MO (Long-Range Forecasts of the High-Water Hydrograph and Floods on Large
Rivers With Allowance for the Nonuniformity of Runoff in Basins: Methodological
Letter), Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978.
4. Sapozhnikov, V. I., "Prediction of the Hydrograph of Spring Water Inflow Into
the Kama Reservoir for Advance Times Up to Z~ao Months," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDRO-
LOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 2, 1979.
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UDC 556.142
COMPUTATION OF THE MAIN HYDROPHYSICAL CHARACTERISTIC OF SOILS USIidG DATA ON
SOIL-HYDROLOGICAL CONSTANTS
_ Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 80 pp 93-101
[Article by Yu. G. Motovilov, candidate of geographical aciences, USSR Hydrometeor-
ological Scientific Research Center, manuscript submitted 23 May 80]
'rext] Abstract: Formulas derived by the author and a
number of other researchers are given which can
be used in approxdmate computation of the depen-
dence of soil moisture potential on moisture us-
ing data on soil-hydrological constants. Evalua-
~
tions of the accuracy in approximation were made
for each formula by means of comparison of the
computed curves and the actual dependences of. the
basic hydrophysical characteristic on the basis
of data for 53 soils of different types. An anal-
ysis of the errors makes it possible to recommend
- the formulas proposed by the author for use in
practical computations of moisture transfer in
the aeration zone.
Definite experience has now been accumulated in hydrology in the modeling of inelt
and rainwater runoff with the use of dynamic models of moisture transfer in the
ground [3, 4, 8]. In a one-dimensional variant in the simplest models for describ-
ing the dynamics of moisture in the soil use is made of the equattion
C L
_ d d~+
o: ds (K dz - K
(1)
where 4t is the capillary-sorption potential of soil moisture; K is the moisture
conductivity coefficient; C= dW/a is the differential moisture capacity; W is
soil moisture content; z is the vertical coordinate with a positive direcCion
downward from the soil surface; t is time.
- The dependences of capillary-sorption potential on moisture content in the "moist-
ening-dessication" process were subjected to hysteresis, which is manifested, in particular, with high soil moisture content values. However, in actual practice
hysteresis phenomena are usually neglected, and as the computation.il dependence
of capillary-sorption potential on moisture content use is made of its desorption
branch. This dependciice is also called the tnain hydrophysical soil characteristic
(MHSC) or moisture content characteristic [11].
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The soil moisture potential has the dimensionality of work related to a unit, quan-
tity of water and can be expressed in specific energy units (J/kg), pressure units
(Pa, bar, atm) and pressure head units (m HZO, cm H20). In soil science it is also
common to employ the parameter pF = lg(4lcm H20). The V, K and C parameters are
hydrophysical characteristics and for a specific soil are functions of moisture
content W. The form of these functions is determined by such properties of the
ground as mineralogical composition, structure, specific surface, etc.
The distribution of these characteristics over an area, even for small homogeneous
terrain sectors, has a stochastic character. It is possible to take into account
the spatial variation of factors governing the permeability of graund in a drain-
age basin by use of models of the formation of runoff with distrihuted parameters,
for example, using two-dimensional models [4]. The dynamic-stochastic approach to
modeling of infiltration [1, and others] is most promising. A peculiarity of this
approach is the carrying out of large-scale computations using an equation of type
(1) with different combinations of soil hydrophysical cha racteristics. In an opera-
tional. regime the carrying out of such computations is limited due to the lack of
data on the hydrophysical characteristics and statistical parameters of their dis-
tribution over the area of the drainage basin. The existing situation can be at-
tributed to the exceedingly great expenditures of time required when using tradi-
tional methods for determining the hydraphysical characteristics of one soil
aample and at the same time the small number of specialized laboratories for the
carrying out of such work.
In addition, much material has now been accimulated on soil-hydrological constants,
which are the generalized characteristics of the water-retaining capacity of the
ground in definite soil moisture pressure ranges. Data on the constants for dif-
f erent agricultural fields in the network of agrometeorolo gical stations are pub-
lished in regional agrohydrological handbooks of soil properties. A number of in-
vestigators have used information on the soil-hydrological constants for approx-
imate stipulation of the dependences V= f(W). We will give a brief review of the
investigations which have been made.
As early as 1939 M. B. Russell [17] proposed a parabolic dependence in the follow-
ing form for approximating the main hydrophysical characteristic in the pressure
range 4.2> pF> 2.5
pF = 7.0 - 3.3/WM W+ 0.53/14M2 W2.
(2)
In this formula the sole characteristic of the water-retaining capacity of th.e
soil is the wilting moisture (WM) of plants, and according to the determinations
of M. B. Russell, pFWM = 4.18.
I. S. McQueen and R. F. Miller [14] proposed a method for constructing the moisture
content curve. The essence of this method is the breakdown of the main hydrophys-
_ {_cal soil characteristic into three segments: stably adsorbed moisture (pF = 5.0-
1.0), adsorbed films (pF = 2.5-5.0) and capillary moisture (pF = 0.0-2.5) with
subsequent approximation of the moisture characteristic curve for each segment us-
ing a dependence of the type
- pF = c; - m; W. (3)
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Here ci and mi are constants which are determined from the two known moisture
content values and the potential values corresponding to them. In the abGenc.e
of physical measurements as such reference points of the main hydrophysical soil
characteristic curve use is made of the values of the soil-hydrological constants,
such as, a) WM (pF'WMfv4.2) and the minimum moisture capacity (M`I, pFpim'% 2.5),
or b) maximum hygroscopicity (MH, pFMH N 4. 7) and r'IIM (pFM x 2.5).
K. K. Pavlova and I. L. Kalyuzhnyy [9], on the basis of an analysis of actual data,
for an approximation of the desorption branch of the main hydrophysical character-
istic with W9 WM, proposed the exponential dependence
41 = 10220 exp (-3. 58 W- 14M/MA1 - WM). (4)
A. S. Rogowski [16], for approximate computation of the main hydrophysical char-
acteristic curves in the pressure range from 15 bar (corresponds closely to the
pressure of soil mo isture at the WM) to the pressure of "entry of air into the
- syGtem" (bubbling p ressure Ve at which tha soil moisture content We is ciDse to
saturation) proposed the logarithmic dependence
W- w, : ~Wi - ~�e) In(~-~+e+1)
e I ri (~t s-~e.f 5� (5)
~ Brooks and Corey [12] in the approximation of the main hydrophysical characteris-
tic used the dependence
Se=
where S_ S- S, S_ W' S_ Wr
e- 1-Sr~ p' p ~
(6)
- P is porosity, Wr is the soilinoisture content at which the hydraulic permeability
of the medium is as:;umed to be equal to zero, A is the porosity factor character-
izing the distribution of pores in the medium by size. Formula (6) is used exten-
sively in the foreign practice of hydrologic:al investigations for approximation
of the main hydrophysical characteristic on the basis of actual data for the pur-
pose of determining the value of the ;1 parameter, which then is used for approxi-
mate computation of the curve relating hydraulic permeability to the moisture con-
tent of the ground.
Dependence (6) can be used in approximate computations if at least three points on
the main hydrophys ical characteristic curve are known. If as Wr we use the maximum
hygroscopic moisture, We and Yfe are moisture content and the prsssure of "entry
of air into the system" and as the intermediate point we take a point with the
coordinates WM and VWM, computation of the main hydrophysical characteristic with
the use of dependence (6) can be carried out using the formula
19 �:l 1f; =na (7)
[rtr= rix~ P -,NjrNg (ss - Mr) -i,(P _ m r)
[B3 = wM ] - 'je ~ W - Mr J .
In 1956 E. E. Mill er and R. D. Miller [15] advanced the hypothes:s of similarity
of poraus media, within the framework of which the main hydrophysical character-
istic curves for different monodisperse media were generalized by means of trans-
formation of the Laplace equation on the basis of similarity theory.
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A further development of this hypothesis for polydisperse media was obtained in
the studies of B. N. Michurin [5]. Assuming that adsorption pressure is in an
inverse dependence on the thickness of the water film (h), whereas capillary
pressure is proportional to surface tension (0") and the specific surface of
soils (Sp), B. N. Michurin obtained a similarity invariant, so-called reduced
capillary-sorption pressure P", in the form of the combination
~ .h
P"
- ; s�
(8)
- Using this criterion, the correlations between capillary-sorption pressure and
moisture content for different types of soils in the range of change in the
specific surface 20-150 m2/g were reduced to the single dependence P" = f(W) [S].
- The correl;ition equation has the form
s = 1,33 lE'-�.ah (9)
n
If the thickness of the water film is expressed as h= W/Sp, we obtain
;
- = 1,3.; W-a.a,~ (10)
In 16, 7] dependence (10) was used by the author as a basis in deriving computa-
tion formulas for approximating the main hydrophysical characteristic curves and
the phase composition of moisture at negative temperatures using data on the max-
imum hygrosc opicity of soils. The following formula was derived for computing
~ the main hydrophysical characteristic
' 9) _ 91MH (MH/W)3.46.
A formula similar in structure was proposed on the basis of an analysis of the ac-
tual main hydrophysical characteristic curves by P. Fageler [10]:
q, _ 4)MH(MH/W)n, (12)
_ where n is a parameter dependent on the nature of the exchange cation. The autho r
found the me an value of this parameter to be equal to 3.
The results of computations of the phase composition of moisture with the use of
dependence (11) in general can be characterized as positive [6, 71o However, a
_ comparison of the computed and actual main hydrophysical characteristic curves
indicates that in a number of cases, especially with high soil moisture values,
the results are unsatisfactory. In a detailed analysis of the initial material
it becomes apparent that the graph of the correlation Wh/a"Sp = f(W) constitutes
a field of points with a definite degree of scatter grouped around the curve
' SVW/ CrSD = 1. 35 W 2.46,
In constructing this graph at a logarithmic scale the individual curves WW/O'S2
0
f(tid) are s traightened; the slopes of the straight lines, that is, the numerical
values of the exponent on W are different for different types of soils, although
they do not differ greatly from the mean value -2.46.
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It is known from theoretical considerations that the mechanism of retention of
moisture by the soi.l is determined not only by the degree of dispersion of the
medium, whose main characteristic is the specific surface, but also to a high
degree by the structure and aggregate state of the ground. In o rder to take this
factor into account, we will assume that porous media similar in structure are
characterized by the same slope of the straight line VW/a'S~ = f(W) at a logarithmic
scale, and for them we write criterion (10) in the form
'
'J - A lF'-�
(13)
where A=~P(So) is a constant for the particular type of soil, characterizing the
adsorptivity of the ground, n is a parameter reflecting the structure of porous
soil space.
I'or a sFecific soil the values of the parameters A and n can be determined using
data on the soil-hydrological constants. It is known that the maximum hygroscop-
icity to a considerable degree characterizes the degree of dispersion of the
medium and its specific surface [5]. With the substitution of the MH and i/fMH
values into formula (13) we obtain A=4/MHMHn, then
- (Mr n
_ _ ~~~ir 1 u� ~ �
~
(14)
In order to determine the value of the n parameter we will use data on the minimum
moisture capacity of the soils, Mt�1 is a soil-hydrological constant which reflects
- the structure and aggregate state of the soil. SubstitutingPtM and 4IMM into for-
mula (14) in place of W and 7? and reducing the resulting expression to logarithmic
form, we find
n= lgVMH - 1g~PI,II,t/lg MhL- lg MH. (15)
'thus, the final expression for approximate computation of the main hydrophysical
characteristic curves wili have the form
19?'air - lg Wxe
~Ir \ g Hs - ig Lvr (16)
[M = MH; xB = rSM ) ,y _
w J .
In order to make computations using formula 4H, 6) it is necessary to have informa-
tion on four parameters of the ground: MH, N'L`'I and fMM. As already noted,
information on MH and MM was generalized in a grohy dro dynamic handbooks. The poten-
tial Yf�,H is a constant whose numerical value is dependent on the method for deter-
mining MH: by the MitchPrlich method VMH-'%5�104 cm H20, by the Nikolayev method
'~'MHx 3� 104 cm H2O, 4fMr4 is a unique characteristic which is not measured in the
network, and in addition is a variable parameter. According to data published by
F. Dyushofur [2], the mean Vmm value for sandy ground is 102 cm H,)O, for clayey
losm soils approximately 3�102 cm H20 and for clayey soils --j/- z103 cm H20.
For practi.cal computations V~.m can be estimated using a pF~ = f(~) correla-
tion graph, which we constructed using data on the actual main hydrophysical
characteristic curves for 53 soils of different types from different regions of
the earth (see Fig. 1). The SH values for these soils were ascErtained by us using
a W1/3 correlation graph (moisture content with a pressure ef s4iL moisture 1%3
atm) with an SH value cited in an article by E. A. Coleman [13]. The analytical
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_ expression for the curve in Fig. 1 can be written in the form
pFMM = 5.2�10-6 Mt,3.5 + 2.1.
_ where MM is expressed in percentage of the weight of dry soil.
(17)
In the absence of data on MH, in evaluatory computations it is possible to use
_ data on the wilting moisture WM. According to numerous investigations, pFWM~& 4.2.
In this case instead of rif-I and VIHH, in formula (16) it is necessary to substitute
the WM and 1rfrATM values respectively.
_ _r r .
�
. ~
2
0
h � �
�
� x
` 10 ?0 JO HB%MM%
Fig. 1. Dependence of soil moisture potential with MM on M41 value.
A11 the formulas cited above, generally speaking, were computed in an approxima-
tion af the main hydrophysical characteristic with W?/>t~l~ Beyond
these limits computations made using f.ormula (2) give what are known to be incor-
_ rect results.
Considerable computation errors are obtained when using the formula (3) derived
by McQueen and Miller. In practical computations use of the dependence (3), in
our o inion, is undesirable, because there is an impairment of the smoothness of
the ~function and its derivatives at the points of intersection of segmPnts of
the main hydrophysical characteristic for different segments. The method is also
unsuitable for pF,t>2.9.
Fair results in computations of the main hydrophysical characteristic are obtained
using the formula derived by Pavlova and Kalyuzhnyy (4). The errors in computa-
tions using formula (4) to a considerable degree are caused by its structure,
which for different soils assumes constant values of the potentials with WM and
MM equal to VWM = 10220 and lymm = 285 cm H20 respectively.
A higher approximation accuracy is attained when making computations using the
Rogowski (5) and Brooks and Corey (7) formulas. However, in these formulas as one
_ of the parameters use is made cf a point with the coordinates We and 7?e, which are
not measured sys*_ematically. Formulas (4), (5) and (7) are suitable for computing
the main hydrophysical characteristic when W> WM.
Entirely satisfactory results are obtained when making computations using formulas
_ (16) and (18). It is assumed that they can be used in the entire range of change
_ in soil moisture content. In formulas (3*), (16'') and (18*) in place of MEI and
- V MH use is made of the values of the parameters WM and Vwm respectively. As a
result of this replacement in the range of pressures 0-1.5�104 cm H20 the approx-
- imation errors are considerably reduced, obviously as a result of a more precise
stipulation of the upper end of the main hygrophysical characteristic curve. In
the pressure range 0-105 cm H2O, on the other hand, the errors increased somewhat.
- In our opinion, in practica]_ compuiations it is desirable to use formulas in which
MH and VMR values are used, not WM and 3,+fWM, because the method for determining
the WM by the vegetation method can give considerable errors since it is not with-
out an element of subjectivism and much is dependent on the experience and skills
of the specialist making the measurements and also on the conditions for carrying
out the experiment. The inaccuracies in determining WM by the vegetation method
can result in a considerable error in stipulating VWM, and accordingly, large
errors in computing the main hygrophysical characteristic on the basis of formulas
employing this parameter. The method for determining a characteristic close to the
ldM by direct measurement of the moistur.e content with a soil m4isture pressure 105�
104 cm H20 ("15-atm moisture content") is free of subjective errors.
109
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We note in conclusion that the stipulation of the qfMM parameter in the computd-
tion formulas using the approximate dependence (17) slightly distorts the results
of the computations. In particular the values of the total criterion St t for
formulas (16), (18), (16*) and (18were in the pressure range 0-105�10cm H20
1.40, 1.38, 0.95 and 0.90 respectively, and in the range 0-105 cm H20 were 0.89,
0.87, 1.05 and 1.01 resnectively.
On the basis of an analysis of the errors it is possible to recommend the formulas
which we have proposed for operational use in practical computations of moisture
transfer in the aeration zone.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
l. Gusev, Ye. M., "Influence of Horizontal Nonuniformity of the Soil Filtering
Coefficient on the Intensity of Percolation," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
(Meteorology and Hydrology), No 7, 1978.
2. Dyushofur, F., OSNOVY POCHVOVEDENIYA (Principles of Soil Science), translated
from French, Moscow, Progress, 1970.
3. Kulik, V. Ya., INFIL'TRATSIYA VODY V POCHVY ([dater Infiltration Into the
Soil), Moscow, Kolos, 1978.
4. Kuchment, L. S., MODELI PROTSESSOV FORMIROVANIYA RECHNOGO STOKA (Models of
Processes of River Runoff Formation), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1980.
5. Michurin, B. N., ENERGETIKA POCHVENNOY VLAGI (Energy Characteristics of Soil
Moisture), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1975.
6. Motovilov, Yu. G., "Numerical Modeling of the Process of Water Infiltration
Into Frozen Soils," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 9, 1977.
7. Motovilov, Yu. G., "Method for Computing the Phase Composition of Soil Mois-
ture at Negative Temperatures," SBORNIK DOKLADOV VTOROY VSESOYUZNOY KONFER-
ENTSII MOLODYKH UCHENYKH GIDROMETSLUZHBY SSSR (Collection o:E Reports of the
Second All-Union Conference of Younb Scientists of the USSR Fiydrometeorolog-
ical Serwice), Moscow, 1977.
8. Motovilov, Yu. G., "Modeling of Losses of Melt tidater in Infiltration Into the
Soi1," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Transactions of the USSR Hydrometeorolog-
ical Center), No 218, 1979.
- 9. Pavlova, K. K., Kalyuzhnyy, I. L., "Generalized Dependences of Soil Moisture
Potential and Moisture Conductivity of Soils on Moisture Content," TRUDY GGI
(Transactions of the State Hydrological Institute), No 268, 1980.
10. Fageler, P., REZHIM KATIONOV I VODY V MINERAL'NYKH POCHVAKH (Regime of
Cations and Water in Mineral Soils), Moscow, Sel'khozgiz, 1933.
11. Baver, L. D., Gardner, W. H., Gardner, W. R., SUIL PHYSICS, New York, 4th Edi-
tion, 1972.
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12. Brooks, R. H., Corey, A. T., "Hydraulic Properties of Porous Media," COLO-
RADO STATE UNIV. HYDR. PAP., No 3, 1964.
13. Coleman, E. A., "A Laboratory Procedure for Determining the Field Capacity of
Soils," SOIL SCI., Vol 63, No 4, 1947.
14. McQueen, I. S., Miller, R. F., "Approximating Soil Moisture Characteristics
From Limited Data: Empirical Evidence and Tentative Model," WATER RESOURCES
RES., Vol 10, No 3, 1974.
15. Mi11er, E. E., Miller, R. D., "Physical Theory for Capillary Flow Phenomena,"
J. APPL. PHYS., Vol 27, No 4, 1956.
16. Rogowski, A. S., "Model of the Soil Moisture Characteristic," WATER RESOURCES
RES. Vol 7, No 6, 1971.
17. Russell, M. B., "Soil Moisture Sorption Curves for Four Iowa Soils," SOIL SCI.
SOC. OF AMER. PROC., Vol 4, 1939.
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UDC 551.584.4:633.18(477.7)
PHYTOCLIMATIC FEATURES OF A RICE FIELD IN THE SOUTHERN UKRAINIAN SSR
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 80 pp 102-106
[Article by V. M. Prosunko, candidate of geographical sciences, Ukrainian Regional
Scz=ntific Research Institute, manuscript submitted 7 May 801
[Text~ Abstract: The diurnal variation of air tem-
perature and humidity in a rice field and
at a meteorological site was investigated.
In the rice field at a height of 0.5 m in
- the course of the entire growing season
the mean daily air temperature is 0.5-
1.8�C lower and the mean daily relative
humidity is 8-19y higher than at the meteor-
ological si.te. Regression equations are pre-
sented for three interphase periods in the
development of rice, limited by the phases
"sprouting," "leaf tube formation," "head-
ing of panicles" and "gold ripeness." These
make it possible, using data on the mean
diurnal air temperature at the meteorolog-
ical site, water level in the rice paddy
and the height of plants to compute the mean
diurual air temperature values (at a height
of 0.5 m), as well as the diurnal tempera-
ture of the water (in the middle of the lay-
er) and soil (at the depth of the tillering
- node) in a rice field.
Investigations for study of the phytoplankton of a rice field have been carried out
in Central Asia [1-3, 51, in the Northern Caucasus [4] and in the Far East [9]. In
these studies the authors have developed methodological approaches to investigation
of the problem and have obtained quantitative indices characterizing the microcli-
matic differences between a rice field and the underlying surface of the meteoro-
logical site. A comparison of these indices indicates that while conforming to an
identical law they differ from one another in value. The latter is attributable to
the dissimilar regime of hydrometeorological elements ir. 3ifferent- climatic regions,
under whose influence the phytoclimate of the rice field is formed. This made it
necessary to ascertain the phytoclimatic indices for each zone of rice cultivation.
112
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In order to ascertain the pliytoclimatic features of a rice field applicable to
the conditions prevailing in thP southern Ukraine the author generalfzed data
from special observations and field experimental studies carried out in 1972-1978
in rice fieldR in the zone of rice cultivation in the Ukrainian SSR.
The features of the temperature and humidity regime in a rice field are formed in
the first stages of development for the most part by the water temperature, and
after closing of the rice stand, by the intensity of plant transpiration. Accord-
ingly, the data from parallel phytoclimatic observations in a rice field and at a
meteorological site were grouped by interphase periods: "sproutin~leaf tube form-
ation," "leaf tube formation-heading of panicles" and "heading of panicles-gold
ripeness." These periods in the development of rice are characterized by different
states of the field (density, height, area of the leaf surface of the plants) and
the regime of flooding of the field with a water layer.
t'C
a) 61 ~��b)
22 ~ a
~
20 , s ; ~
a
le a ~
, ~ a
16 � ~
,
f2 o-0o Z
10
fX
o ~
~ p
1 ~
b 9
h,o-~rJ
~0~ 8 ; Z 16 20 24 0It B 12 16 20 24
4�
r b
e) / o.qa )
OQ~'h P
, d
t :
a\~ d 9
ad
04L B 12 16 20 r hours
Fig. 1. Diurnal variation of inean air temperature and mean relative humidity in a
rice field at a height of 0.5 m(1) and at the meteorological site at a height of
2 m(2) during interphase periods.
An analysis of gradient observations in the rice field indicated that in the inter-
phase period "sprouting-leaf tube formation," when the plants form an unclosed
stand, the air temperature in zhe field is close to its values over the field or
somewhat lower. With the closing of the stand the intensified transpiration of the
plants favors a greater cooling of the air and its temperature acquires lAwer val-
ues at the water surface. Accordingly, an inversion vertical temperature distribu-
tian predominates in the field. The vertical distribution of air humidity is char-
acterized by its decrease with height.
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Figure 1 shows the diurnal variation of temperature and rElative humidity at a
height of 0.5 m in a rice field and at a standard height (2 m) at the meteoro-
logical site, determined using tihermographs and hygrograghs. In the course of
the growing season tlie rice field is characterizpd by a lower temperature and a
higher humidity. The difference between the values of the mentioned elements in
the rice field and at the mereorological site on the average for the period
"sprouting-leaf tube formation" is 0.5�C and 8%, "leaf tube formation-heading of
panicles" 1.6�C and 14%, "heading of panicles-gold ripeness" 1.8�C and 19%.
The reduction in air temperature in the rice field is attributable to an increas-
ed heat expenditure on total evaporation (transpiration of plants and evaporation
from the water surface). The heat accumulated during the day by the water layer
somewhat compensates the cooling of the air in the rice field at nighttime and
the microclimatic differences of air temperature between the rice field and the
meteorological site are smoothed.
In the diurnal variation of relative humidity at a height of 0.5 m in the rice
fi.e1d there is a maximum which sets in nrior to sunrise (0400-0600 hours) and a
,iinimum which is observed at about midday (1200-1400 hours).
The amplitudP of the variation of the mean diurnal temperature and relative humidity
in the rice stand ciuring the entire growing season is less than at the meteorol.og-
ical site (Table 1).
As a result of a correlation analysis of data from parallel observations of temper-
ature in the rice field and at the meteorological site it was possible to derive
linear regression equations characterizing the correlation between mean air temper-
ature in the field (0.5 m) and its value at the meteorological site (2 m) during in-
dividual interphase periods (Table 2).
The correlation between the mean diurnal soil temperature at a depth of 3 cm in the
f.ield (y) and the mean diurnal air temperature at the meteorological site (x) is
also expressed by a straight-line equation with a regression coefficient 0.51 and
a free term 8.0. The equation can be used in determining the optimum sowing times.
The correlation coefficient for this correlation is r= 0.83t0.05. The error of the
equation is Sy = f1�C. The equation is applicable with x= 9.8-18.5�C. There was a
closer correlation between soil temperature, measured using AM-17 maximum-minimum
thermometers placed at a depth of 3 cm in the field and at the meteorological site.
This correlation is expressed by a straight-line equation with a xegression coef-
ficient 0.92 and a free term 1.4. The correlation coefficient is r= 0.98t0.03. The
error of the equa.tion is Sy = f0.7�C. The equation is applicable with x= 9.0-17.6
- �C. These equations can be used for obtaining information on the soil temperature
in the rice field prior to its flooding on the basis of data for the nearest meteor-
ological station.
We also computed equations for the correlation between soil temperature at the
depth of the tillering node in the field and air temperature at the meteorological
site, water level in the rice paddy and the height of the plantG (Table 3). They
can be used in evaluating the influence of agrometeorologic3l conditions on the
growth and development of rice in different parts of the growing season.
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- Table 1
Diurnal Amplitude of Temperature and Relative Humidity in a Rice Field (First Line)
_ and at Meteorological Site (Second Line)
, Interphase period Air temperature, �C Relative humidity, %
"Sprouting-leaf tube formation" 21.5 72
25.4 76
"Leaf tubE formation-heading 15.8 63
of panicles" 19.0 69
"Heading of panicles-gold ripe- 18.6 62
ness" 20.00 65
Table 2
Correlation Between Mean Daily Air Temperature in Rice Field (y) and Mean Daily Air
Temperature at Meteorological Site (x)
Interphase period Regression coefficient Correl- Mean Number
- ation square of
angular free term coeffi- error cases
cient
"Sprouting-leaf tube formation" 0.66 7.3 0.84 0.9 80
_ "Leaf tube formation-heading of
panicles" ' 0.82 3.3 0.79 0.8 94
"Heading of panicles-gold ripe-
ness" 0.55 8.0 0.76 1.2 78
s Table 3
Dependence of Mean Daily Soil Temperature at Depth of Tillering Node of Rice (t) on
Mean Daily Air Temperature at Meteorological Site (x), Water Level in Paddy (y)
and Plant Height (z)
- Interphase period Regression equation Multiple Mean Number of
correla- square cases
tion coef- error
ficient
"Sprouting-leaf tube forma- tl = 0.164x-0.021y + 0.73 1.1 84
tion" 0.02z + 18.5
"Leaf tube formation-head- t2 = 0.212x-0.080y + 0.81 0.7 116
ing of panicles" 0.08z + 12.7
"Heading of panicles-gold t3 = 0.134x-0.077y + 0.76 0.5 92
ripeness" 0.09z + 6.9
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Table 4
Dependence of Mean Daily and Minimum Temperature in M.iddle of Water Layer in Rice
Field (u), (u) on Mean Daily Air Temperature at Meteorological Site (x) and
Depth of Water Layer (y)
Interphase period Regression equation riultiple Mean Number of
-0 correla- square cases
tion coef- error,
- ficient �C
"Sprouting-leaf tube for- ul = 0.437x+0.218y+10.175 0.73 1.0 68
- mation" ul = 0.179x+0.163y+9.768 0.76 1.2 82
"Leaf tube formation-head- u2 = 0.097x+0.144y+19.094 0.83 0.9 74
ing of panicles" ug = 0.143x+0.198y+11.806 0.80 0.9 74
"Heading of panicles- u3 = 0.808x+0.660y-8.463 0.77 0.8 62
j-old ripeness" u3 = 0.030x+1.110y-6.294 0.74 0.6 62
ihe tYeermal regime of the water in the rice paddy exerts a great influence on the
- formation of side sprouts and the formation of the fruit-bearing organs [8]. How-
ever, the measurement of water temperature in the rice field involves definite
technical difficulties. Therefore, we computed regression equations (Table 4)
characterizing the correlation between the mean daily and minimum water tempera-
tures in the middle of the water layer in a rice field and the mean daily air tem-
perature at the meteorological site and the water depth in the rice paddy. The
statistical characteristics of these equations indicate the po5sibility of using
them for computing the water temperature when measurement data are lacking.
The cited equations correlating the elements of the thermal regime in a rice field
with the factors determining them make it possible to take into accoLmt the phyto-
climatic characteristics of a rice field in the hydrometeorological servicing of
agriculture in the rice cultivation zone.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Abdulayev, Kh. M., "Some Characteristics of the Temperature Regime of a Rice
_ Fi.eld," TRUDY SARNIGMI (Transactions of the Central Asian Regional Scientific
Research Hydrometeorological Institute), No 56(137), 1978.
2. Babushkin, L. N., "Agrometeorological Observations in Rice Fields," TRUDY TGO
(Transactions of the Tashkent Hydrometeorological Observatory), No 8, 1954.
3. Zhapbasbayev, M., AGROKLIMATICHESKIYE USLOVIYA PROIZRASTANIYA RISA V KONTINEN-
TAL'NOM KLIMATE (V KAZAKHSTANE) (Agroclimatic Conditions for the Grawth of
Rice in a Continental Climate (In Kazakhstan)), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1969.
4. Ibragimova, E. A., MIKROKLIMAT OSNOVNYKH SEL'SKOKH07YqYSTVENN`.7KH POLFY LEN-
KORANSKOY PRIRODNU-EKONOMICHESKOY ZONY AZERBAYDZIiANA. RAZDEL II. MIKROKLIMAT
RISOVOGO POLYA (Microclimate of the Principul Agricultural Fields of the Len-
koranskaya Natural-Economic Zone of Azerbaijan. rarz II. Microclimate of a
- Rice Field), Fond IG AN AzSSR, 1968.
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5. Nurguliyev, 0., Saparaliyev, K., "Temperature Regime in a Rice Field," VEST-
NIK SEL'SKOKHOZYAYSTVENNOY NAUKI KAZAKHSTANA (Herald of Agricultural Scisnce
- of Y.azakhstan), No 6, 1972. 6. Prosunko, V. M., "Method of Phytoclimatic Observations in Rice Fields," TRUDY
UkrNIGMI (Transactions of the Ukrainian Scientific Research Hydrometeorolog-
ical Institute), No 151, 1976.
7. Prosunko, V. M., METODIKA AGROMETEOROLOGICHESKIKH NABLYUDENIY NA RISOVYKH
POLYAKH (Method of A.grometeorological Observations in Rice Fields), Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1978. ,
8. Smetanin, A. P., "Reasons for the Occurrence of Infertile Rice Grains," AGRO-
BIOLOGIYA (Agrobiology), No 1, 1959.
9. Chernysheva, L. S., "Heat Supply for the Cultivation of Rice in Primorskiy
Kray," TRUDY DVNIGMI (Transactions of the Far Eastern Scientific Res earch Hy-
- drometeorological Institute), No 25, 1967.
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UDC 551.577.21(477)
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE UKRAINE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec- 80 pp 107-109
[Article by T. N. Zabolotskaya, candidate of geographical sciences, and V. M. Much-
. nik:. candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, Ukrainian Regional Scientific
]tejearch Institute, manuscript submitted 18 Feb 80]
~Text] Abstract: It is shown that heavy precipitation of
the shower type at a station most frequently is a
result of passage of several centers of precipita-
tion. The time between the onset of the maxima of
intensity of two successive centers and the distance
b etween their midpoints are determined.
Heavy rains are thoc e in which 30 mm or more of precipitation falls at a station
in the course of 24 hours [3]. These rains can cause great losses (especially in
rnountain regions) and there�ore are considered dangerous for the national econ-
omy. Their study is necessary for the p urpose of grediction and warning, ancl also
fo r developing metho ds of modifi cation for the purpose of regulating rainfall.
It was noted earlier in [2] Chat the intensive development Qf a center of pre-
_ cipitation is accompanied by the combining of a main center with a center forming
- to the rear of it. However, the authors of [2] gave only one case and therefore
it was important to ascertain how frequently such cases occur and whether such
processes are typir_al for the foruiation of heavy precipitation, that is, whether
heavy rains are caused by the passage of one center or several centers, one fol-
lowing the other.
As the initial data for the investigation we used data trom the pluuiometric and
precipitation gage network in the Experimental Meteorological Polygon of the
- Ukrainian Scientific Research Institute during the summer of 1977 and also data
- from radar observations during this same period. Since the radar observations
were made during the daytime, for selecting the cases with heavy rains we employ-
ed the semidiurnal precipitation sums (for the observation time 2000 hours), but
the initial sum selected was 30 mm or more, that is, the selected rains can be
called "heavy." Attention was given to those cases when the p recipitation was
in the form of showers, not continuous.
Despite the fact tl;at the polygon region is a region with inadequate moistening,
the occurrence of heavy precipitation at individual stations is not a rare pheno-
menon. For example, in June the hydrometeorological posts registered the falling
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of abundant precipitation over the course of 12 days, in July 8 days, and in
August 7 days. During this time heavy precipitation uras observed at 102 posts.
The frequency of recurrence of the quantity of falling precipitation during a half-
day at individual points was as follows:
Gradations of 30.1-40 40.1-50 50.1-60 60.1-70 70.1-80 80
quantity of pre-
cipitation, mm
Frequency of re-
currence, % 49 23
10 7 7 4
It can be seen that in almost 30% of the cases individual posts register a very
" great quantity of precipitatinn per half-day (more than 50 mm).
During this period the program for radar observations provided for conical sections
at different angles of antenr_a elevation with calibrated attenuation of the signal.
- Series of such sections were obtained each 10 minutes. In general, such a program
made it possible to determine the boundaries of individual centers, track the
moments of their formation and further development, but in some cases (during inten-
sive processes of precipitation formation) it was difficult to carry out such an an-
alysis, since the 10-minute interval between observation series exerted an influ-
ence. Accordingly, the need arose for checking whether the number of centers pass-
ing over a station agrees with the record of rainfall intensity on tlie pluviometric
tapes.
Such check3ng was carried out at 31 posts (48 rains). It was found that the number
of centers passing over an observation point according to radar data agrees rigor-
ously with the number of maxima on the curve of variation of intensity.
As an illustration, using radar observations with the MRL-2 we will examine the
falling of precipitation on 13 June over a station (see Fig. 1). The semidiurnal
sum of precipitation at this post was 50.2 mm. The figure shows observational
data each 10 and 20 minutes from 0830 hours for a two-hour period. Observations
were made at the ground surface with a response of the radar detector 18 db below
its total response and aloft with its total response. Thus, it was possible to
make a more precise determination of the position of the centers. The figure shows
that four centers were formed in the neighborhood of the post.
- The first center was detected at the ground surface as early as 0740 hours and for
about 1 hour developed very weakly botk in area and in height. At 0830 hours (Fig.
la) its development was intensified and at its rear at a distance of about 10 km
at an altitude of about 2.9 km at a vertical angle of 10� center 2 was already dis-
covered. It is interesting that according to data from a radiosonde launched at
_ 0955 hours at the place where the radar was set up the altitude of the isotherm
0�C was about 2.8 km. According to [1], with the appearance of the first echo
at the level of or above the 0�C isotherm the center has a tendency to development,
which in actuality was not the case. Thus, after approximately 10 min center 2
reached the ground surface (Fig. lb), whereas after 30 min (Fig. ld) its altitude
already exceeded 4.5 km. Later the altitude of centers 1 and 2 was more than 8 km,
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that is, these centers became centers of thunderstorms [4]. According to observa-
- tions at the ground surface, during this period a thunderstorm was noted.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Q) �1 �1 � 1
"i
� ~ ~ . ~3
0) ? : , , Z
~ i
J 3~ ~
t) 1 ~ ~ ~
~
3 ~J 3
a~ 1 Z 2
27o'
16' 19 �
Z >
f
_rz z z
\
,
~
J
1
J
~
- ~ ~
~ ~ J J
� ` 4, 3V ; 2 J t
gY ~
> >
1 3
J y Z
4 2 ~
h ) 3)
Fig. 1. Projection of centers according to radar observations on 13 June 1977. At
angle of elevation 1� contour of radio echo 18 db below its total response, at
an angle of 10, 13, 16, 19� at full response. Range marks each 10 km. a) 0830
ho urs; b) 0840 hours; c) 0850 hours; d) 0910 hours; e) 0930 hours; f) 0950 hours;
g) 1010 ho urs; h) 1030 hours.
i:enter 3 appeared at 0840 hours between centers 1 and 2(Fig. lb). It can be assumed
that this center is dynamically related to centers 1 and 2. All rhree centers were
situated i.n a line in the direction of their movement. Accordingly, they also
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passed over the post one after another, creating abundant rainfall.
The data from radar observations are confirmed by pluviometric observations at the
' post. For example, according to these data there are three rainfall maxima: the
first at 0940 - 0947 hours, Imax = 0.56 mm/hour, second at 0959 -1006 hours,
ImaX = 0.64 mm/hour and third at 1020 - 1025 hours, ImaX = 1.55 mm/hour.
At 0950 hours the center 4(Fig. lf) appesrs at the ground surface somewhat to
the left of the system of centers 1 and 3, which by this time had succeeded in join-
ing together. By lOlQ hours all the centers mentioned above had joined into one
enormous multicell, the individual centers of which, except for center 2, cannot
- be traced either at the grotmd surface or aloft. The passage of this multicell also
caused the formation of heavy precipitation.
Using radar and pluviometric data it was possible to analyze all cases of the fall-
ing of heavy precipitation during 1977. It was found that only 20% of the cases
(20 posts) of heavy rain were caused by the passage of a single center, at 22
- posts the passage of two centers was noted, at 33 posts three centers; at 11
posts the passage of 4 and 5 centers was observed and at 5 posts 6 cen ters; the
' average quantity of falling precipitation in these cases was 33, 45, 46, 41, 49
and 64 mm. Thus, it can be assumed that heavy precipitation at a station most fre-
quently is a result of the passage of several centers.
It can be concluded on the basis of the material set for�th above that with artific-
- ial modification the problem is to act upon the subsequent centers in order to ex-
tinguish the process of intensive development. Accordingly, it is of interest to
determine the time between the onset o"L' the intensity maxima of two successive cen-
ters at a particular point on the basis of pluviometric observations. This time av-
eraged 21 minutes. The distances between successive foci of the centers were com-
puted taking in to account the velocity of movement of the centers for each day and
_ are presented below:
Distance gradation, km