JPRS ID: 9869 NEAR EAST/NORTH AFRICA REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000400030050-9
• Release Decision: RIF
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 51
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 50
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/9869
2.7 July 1981
N~ar East North Africa Re ort
p
(FOUO 25/81)
FBI$ ~OREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
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JPRS L/9869
27 July 1981
NEAR EAST/NORTH AFRICA REPORT
(FOUO 25/81)
CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAI, AFFAIRS
Deve7.opment of Italy's Relaticns T~Ti.th Arabs Reviewed
(AL-WATAN AZ-'ARA.BI, 29 May-4 Jun 81) 1
Increased Coritact
Growth in Trade Relations
IRAN
Factors Zeading to Bani-Sadr~s Downfall Exami.ned
(Marcel Peju; JEUNE AFRIQUE, 1 Jul 81) 11
MOROCCO
r
Reporter Covers Berber, Fax Zeft Movements
(Fli'ad Abu Mansur; AI,-WATAN AI~-'ARABI, various dates) 11~
5YRIA
Hamah Ilisturbances Discussed
(AI~-WATAN AZ-'ARABI, 18 Jun 81) 29
TUNISIA
Premier Discusses Upcomir.g Elections, Political Situation
( Florenc e Ra'd ; AI~-WATAN AL-' AR.ABI, 12-18 Jun 81) 31~
WESTERN SAHARA
Correspondent Paints Picture of Growing Moroccan Dominance
(PZustaf4 a1-Yaznasni; AL-WATAN AI~-'ARABI, 19-25 Jun 81) . 1~3
- a- [ II I- NE & A - 121 FOUO]
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INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
DEVELOPMENT OF ITALY'S RELATIONS WITH ARABS REVIEWED
Increased Contact
Paris AL-WATAN AL-'ARABI in Arabic No 224, 29 May-4 Jun 81 pp 65, 66
[Article: "Historical and Geographic Facts in Italian-Arab Relations; European
Italy Positively Inclined Toward Arabs"]
[Text] The recent years have witnessed considerable development in relations between
Italy and the Arab world. This development has included the political, economic
~ and cultural spheres. Until recent times, the 1950's and 1960's for example, the
relationship binding these two sides was an unclear and incomprehensible foggy re-
lationship or, let us say, a relationship with no clearcut dimensions and features.
This despite the fact that Italy, next to Greece, is considered the closest European
country to the Arab world and there is a rich history of the relations with this
country which shares with the Arab countries its location in the Mediterranean
Basin. Moreover, there is a strong s3milarity between many of the customs and tradi-
tions of the Italian people, especially the southern Italians, and the peoples of
the Arab Mediterranean countries, i.e. the countries located on the Mediterranean
coast. Despite a11 these common denominators, the relations tying Ttaly to the
Arabs were not, as we have already pointed out, compatible with the facts, especial-
ly the political relations, considering that Italy has been one of the last Euro-
pean countries to show understanding toward the Arab-Zionist conflict. This may
have been due to the strong relations established by the successive Ttalian govern-
ments with the United States, especially in the sphere of foreign policy where there
was evident coordination between the Italian and U.S. governments on many of the
positions taken by the two governments vis-a-vis international events, especially
the Middle East issue.
Disengagement With America
However, th~s fact began to disappear in Italian foreign policy, in the late 1970's
and with the onset of the 1980's specif ically. The United States can no longer use
Italy as a launching point for its activities against the Mideastern c~~a.ntries. One
of the distinguishing marks indicating the extent of the transformation in the
Italian policy and this policy's liberation from the shackles of the U.S. policy in
_ the area is found in Italy's condemnation of the United States in the wake of the
failure of the latter's attempt to free the U.S. hostages in Tehran EBy military
force]. It has also become evident in Italy now that there has been a more positive
inclination in the interest of the Arab countries, especially when Francisco Cossiga
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was priune minister and Emilio Colombo minister of foreign affairs. There has been
~ a large increase in the number of visits made by Itali.a.n officials to the various
Arab countries in recent years and certainlj~ the Italian politicians have begun to
realize that Italy, with its geographic location and on the basis of historical and
cultural reality, must interact to a greater extent and more positively with the
hot political events and the influential economic developments that take place Cin
the Arab world]. Moreover, Italy is, by virtue of all of the above mentioned,
amor_g the Western countries most strongly affected by the Middle East crisis. Italy
relies on Arab oil to meet 68 percent of its energy needs. Local [oil] production
is very meager and can be disregarded, considering that it doesn't exceed 1.5
million tons annually whereas the country needs more than 100 millian ton.s a year.
Look for Oil
Tn addition to the oil which represent~ an important f actor in the consideration of
Italian foreign policy, there is another factor which has influenced modifying the
course of Italian policy vis-a-vis the Middle East generally and the Arab countries
in particular. This inclination appeared in the f irst half of 1980 when it was
Italy's turn to head the EEC Council in the first 6 months of 1980. Therefore,
Rome took the leadership of managing the EEC affairs in an important period during
which the EEC member states were finalizing their views and preparing themselves
for a role in the Middle East--to be spec;.f ic, for a role in settling the Arab-
Zionist conflict generally. Consequently, Italy found itself in.terested, perhaps
for the first tima in this concerted manner, with whatever was happening in the Middle
East politically, economically and culturally. We even notice that this interest
did not end or terminate with the termination of Italy's chairmanship of the EEC
~uncil in the second half of 1980. Therefore, this period witnessed numerous
visits by Italian officials to the Arab countries and the conclusion of bilateral
agreements betweeti Italy and many of the Arab countries. However, the impact of
- this positiv~ turn in Italian policy diminished quickly. An official of the Italian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs attributes this change to the eruption of the Ir.aqi-
Iranian war and the resignation of Cossiga's cabinet at the end of September 1980.
Cossfga was the man who headed the EEC meeting which was held in V~enna on 13 J~zne
1980 and in whicfi the nine EEC member states issued their joint declaratior, on
peace in the 1~Iiddle East. In this decl~ration, these states expressed their readi-
ness to participate in the efforts to bring about a comprehensive settlement ac-
lmowledging the Palestinian people's legitimate rights to their land and their right
to self-determination. While recognizing Israel's rig~t to survival and security,
the EEC member states condemned the Israeli settlement policy in the occupied ter-
ritories. They also declared their rejection of the Israeli attempts to change the
status of Jerusalem unilaterally. For the first t~ne, the EEC member states also
stressed that the PLO should have a part in any peaceful settlanent.
This may not include a?1 that the majority of the Arab countries want from Europe.
However, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs considered this declarat3on by
the EEC member states to be considerable progress, the credit for which goes to
' Italian diploma.:y which played an effective role in changing the political direction
concerning the Mic~dle East in the Netherlands and Denmsrk both of which had been
imown for their positions of full su~port for Israel. For the first time ever,
we saw the West European countries not [only] binding themselves to the declaration
issued but [also] laying down the fuundations for an active diplvmary embodied in
' the mtssion wY~ich toured the Arab countries and Tsrael to familiarize itself with
the points of agre~nent and disagreement between the parties to the conflict. This
~
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mission was lmown as the (Ttiorn) mission, Thoi~. being the chairman of the EEC Council
_ for the second half of 1980. One of the most important results of the tours. con-
tacts and talks of the mission was the declaration by the Eurogean countries of
= their readiness to off er international guarantees binding to both sides in the area
within the Framework of a comprehensive peaceful settlement. In July 1980, when
Italy hande~i over chairnanship of the EEC Council to the Luxembourg, Italian Minister
of Foreign Affairs Colombo was planning to underline the bilateral relations be-
tween Italy and the Arab c~untries. He paid an official visit to Tunisia dur3ng which
ha held talks with Chedli Klibi, th~ Arab League secretary general. Shortly after-
ward, "Izzat Ibrahim, the Iraqi vice president, visited Rome with 3 Iraqi ministers
in response to an official invitation fror;� the Italian Government. Meanwhile,
active preparations were underway to receive Prince Saud al Faysal, the Saudi minister
of foreign affairs. But suddenly the Iraqi-Iranian war erupted and the Italia~
cabinet fell. According to an Italian diplomat, Italy had attached big importance to
the Saudi minister's v isit and was looking forward to restoring Italian-Saudi rela-
tions to the conditions that prevailed before the ban on the exportation of Saudi
oil to Italy. In any case, this problem has recently been solved satisfactorily to
both side.s.
Generally, it can be said that the rPlations between Italy and the Arab homeland
are constantly devaloping iit a positive direction at the various polit3cal, economic
and cultural levels. Insofar as each individual Arab country is concerned, it is
evident so far that Italy is trying not to interf ere in the political axes that
- emerge between some countries of the Arab homeland. Italy's interest lies, accord-
ing to the statements of more than one Italian official on more than one occasion,
in the disappearance of the pett_y conflicts among the Arab states so that EuroFe,
including Italy, may be able to deal with an Arab world that has unified positions
on both the foreign and the domestic policies.
Growth in Trade Relations
Paris AL-WATAN AL-'ARABI in Arab ic No 224, 29 May-4 Jun 81 ~p 69-72
[Article: "Italy: Economi~ Artery Between Europe and Africa; Italian Exports to
Arab World Triple in 4 Years"]
[TextJ There is the following famous statement by a prominent Italian businessman
in which he describes the necessary guarantees for the survival, growth and de-
velopment of the Italian economy and industry: The only solution before Italy is
to devP.lop its economic relations with the Arab world, especially with the Arab
oil countries, to the utmost degree possible. From them we acquire oil, which is
the energy necessary to run the factories, and to them cae export the largest volume
possible of the production of these factories at prices and on conditions unmatched
- in other countries.
- It seems that the It~lian businessmen and the Italian Government have fully realized
this fact or taken this advice, as they describe it in Italy. A single glance
at the development of the Italian exports to the Arab countries shows us the extent
of the stunning growth in the economic relations betwee:.~ the two sides in a short
period not over 4 years. Whereas the value oi the Italian exports to the entire
Arab world did not exceed $3,746,831 in 1976, we find that the figure rose to
$5,237,347 in 1977 and to $6,219,446 in 1978. In 1979, the f igure reached $8,668,837.
All sigr~s in3icate that the 1980 figures will exceed all the preceding figures and
all the expectations following them. [All figures as publi_;hpd]
' 3
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- Italy is the biggest industrial state in the Mediterranean Basin. Like all the
industrial countries that lack local energy resources, Italy has been strongly
affected by-the rise of oil prices in recent years, especially when we learn that it
depends on oil to meet 68 percent of 3.ts anergy needs. Despite the efforts it is
exerting to increase its impor~.s from other sources, such as Nigeria, Venezuela and
Mexico, the largest p3rt of Ita].y's oil itnports comes from the Middle East. Thus,
crude oil represents the burden t~at saddles its balance of payments. This burden
grew heavier in 1979 in particular when the de�icit in Italy's balance of payments
amounted in the f irst 8 months of 1979 to 11,182,000,000,000 liras--$12,912,000,000.
Energy Problems and Their Local Causes
Thus, the Italian economy, like the economies of the other industrial countries, has
to shoulder the weight of the rising prices of crude oi1 and of the interruption of
some oil supplies because of the Iraqi--Iranian wdr. The quantity of oil supplied
by Iran to Italy has dropped 'by a large amount since the Iranian revolution whereas
under the shah, Iran was the second largest supplisr of oil to Italy after Saudi
Arabia. Iraq then replaced Iran as the second l.arges~ supplier and this situation
continued until ~he outbreak of the Iraqi-Iranian war.
However, many political observers and economic analysts believe tnat the blame for
the interruption of oil supplies from some sources falls on the shoulder of Italy
itself, The government-controlled Italian Hydrocarbons Organizat ion, lrnown as
ENI, has fai.led to implement the direct importation deal for 12.4 million tons of
oil concluded with the Saudi Petr~min Organization because the Saudis stopped
delivery of the oil when the political scandal concerning the $114 million agreed
upon as "commission" spread in Rome. The governmental and parliamentary investiga-
tions have reached no conclusive result and have found no evidence of any payments
to certain Italians. However, this has not prevented Italy from importing Saudi
oil via the internat ional oil companies.
There is another story with Kuwait, the gist of it being that Kuwait has stopped
delivering oil to two Italian importers who have not been able to pay what they
owe it, namely the SIR Company and the Atilio-Italiana Group. Kuwait was also
annoyed when the Pont Oil Company, headquartered in Genoa, sold a shipment of Ku-
waiti oil on the high seas and this shipment was unloadec~ in South Africa. The
situation has also been affected by the financial difficulties faced by the Italian
consulting and contracting f irms. The major shareholder of the (Itaxat) Company,
a company which had an excellent reputation in the Third World, liquidated the
- company. However, the labor unions and the campany em~loyees protested very strongly
- ai~d so the government appointed a representative to take charge of running the
company. Exactly the same thing was repeated in the case of the group of construc-
tion companies supei-vised by Mario (Ging3ni) which hacl important contracts in Saudi
Arabia and Iraq. The courts are still looking into the affair of these companies
and no decision has been made yet.
It is evident from the above-mentioned e.~camples that the curtailment of the oil
relationship between Italy and the world's oil countries, especially the Arab
countries, is due fundamentally to some domestic Itali.an actions which have nothing
to do with the other side, meaning the oil source.
Arabs and Economy
As for Italy's economic relationship with the Arab countries, it 3s, as we have
already mentioned, generally good and developing, especially with the countries
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- - -
close to Italy, such as Libya, Tunisia and Egypt. Italy [presumably meaning Libya]
is considered among the best markets for the Italian exports. Perhaps this is due
to the old historical relations binding the two countries, in additi~n to the geo-
graphic proximity. Nearly 15,000 Italians work in Libya at present. As for Saudi
Arabia and the Arab Gulf States, Italy is exerting urgent efforts to develop the
relations with them. It has now become familiar to see Ttalian f irms implementing
_ large, medium and small projects jn the Arab countries. Perhaps one of the most
important projects entrusted to an Italian f irm to implement in the Arab world is
the pipeline which will carry Algpri.an methane gas to Italy via the Strait of Sicily.
The first real and pe~anen*_ iink between Africa and Europe was completed in 1980.
This link or this pipelinv_ will go into operation by the end of 1981 to carry-gas
_ to Italy, and maybe to other European countries. The length of this pipeline which
crosses the Mediterranean. is 2,498 l~s and its costs amounts to $3.5 billion. It
will transport gas from (Hasi Raml) in the Greater Sahara to the European pipeline
network which extends to (~,konisk) in the Nozth Sea, the gasf ields in the Soviet
Union and the Atlantic coast of France.
_ The observers liken ttlis ambiti;,us project, which is a record figure in laying
pipeYine in deep water, to a secret rope linking North Africa ~~ith Europe. The
Italian firms taking part in laying down the pipeline prefer to call it the artery
pipeline bacause an artery is a living thing that stands as a symbol and as a testi-
mony to the two-way cooperation and co~unication across the Mediterranean. In
any ca~e, this pipeline is capable of turning Algeria into the biggest exporter of
the gas to Italy because the pipeline will carr~ 30 percent of Italy's needs in
1985. The other suppliers, besides the local Italian production, are Ch~ Soviet
Union, the Netherlands and Libya.
.
Special Relations With Gulf States ~
This covers~Italy's efforts in the biggest project of its kirid being implemented in
one of the Arab countries is concerned. If we continue to review the activities of
the Italian firms in the Arab world, we will f ind that the Italian (Acoli Marilli)
Firm, along with an Italian consorti~, is implem